Updating Elimination Rules

[mrroyboy]

Would like your suggestion and opinions on eliminating horses. I am tired of losing with garbage horses etc.
Any and all advice would be greatly appreciated.

Remember if you can get rid of all the losers, all you have left is the winners. :ThmbUp: :jump:

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Would like your suggestion and opinions on eliminating horses. I am tired of losing with garbage horses etc.
Any and all advice would be greatly appreciated.

Remember if you can get rid of all the losers, all you have left is the winners. :ThmbUp: :jump:
That is one of the toughest inquires ever presented on a message board. I wish I knew as I too am tired of getting beat by horses that I thought had no chance in the race.

[Stillriledup]

The important thing to understand (not saying that you do this personally) is this: if a horse shows "nothing" on paper and is a big longshot, that doesn't mean the horse is "Garbage".

There's 2 kinds of horses like that...the ones who are bad and look bad on paper and the ones who are actually decent who look bad on paper.

Remember this rule of thumb....unless you're in the worst 1% of all horses in the country, there is a race you can probably win. There is a class somewhere at some track in America that this horse can win....so, all horses can be winners, the key is to try and understand where each horse belongs in the pecking order.

Some horses are faster than others, but even the slowpokes have a situation where they can win...so, these "garbage horses" you refer to are only garbage within the context of their current situation, but the reality is that those bad horses can all be winners given the right circumstances.

[Sea Biscuit]

Remember this rule of thumb....unless you're in the worst 1% of all horses in the country, there is a race you can probably win. There is a class somewhere at some track in America that this horse can win....

They actually have a a class at Fraser Downs for Maidens 5 Yr or younger with a purse of $5300. Take a look at the program page

http://i1099.photobucket.com/albums/g387/secretariat3/Page%201_zpsjlhujxqr.png (http://s1099.photobucket.com/user/secretariat3/media/Page%201_zpsjlhujxqr.png.html)
http://i1099.photobucket.com/albums/g387/secretariat3/Page%202_zpsa4dyq47y.png (http://s1099.photobucket.com/user/secretariat3/media/Page%202_zpsa4dyq47y.png.html)

Some of the mares in the above race have 50/60 career starts and have yet to visit the winners circle but there is no shortage of bettors willing to bet these horses/mares.:jump:

[Stillriledup]

Interesting race SB.

These horses are really close to that "1%" that can't beat anyone, i look at the breeding of some of them and have never heard of these sires. Valey Victory? Isn't that a trotter? :D

[Sea Biscuit]

Interesting race SB.

These horses are really close to that "1%" that can't beat anyone, i look at the breeding of some of them and have never heard of these sires. Valey Victory? Isn't that a trotter? :D

Fraser Downs is one of the few tracks in the world that don't card trotting races. Only pacers.

[mrroyboy]

The 5 looks like a lock in this race but who knows??? :bang:

[Sea Biscuit]

The 5 looks like a lock in this race but who knows??? :bang:

He was the winner and he paid $4.20 to win.:ThmbUp:

[Ray2000]

Would like your suggestion and opinions on eliminating horses. I am tired of losing with garbage horses etc.
Any and all advice would be greatly appreciated.

Remember if you can get rid of all the losers, all you have left is the winners. :ThmbUp: :jump:


Throwing out non-contenders has been a long quest of mine, but it's just another Don Quixote "tilting at windmills" :)

I ran this thread here last year trying "Exacta Wheels minus 2" but gave up after 275 part wheels.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115236

If there's a method for eliminating contenders, ...it's well hidden...... : :confused:

[Capper Al]

Would like your suggestion and opinions on eliminating horses. I am tired of losing with garbage horses etc.
Any and all advice would be greatly appreciated.

Remember if you can get rid of all the losers, all you have left is the winners. :ThmbUp: :jump:

For runners, take a look at this article:

Elimination Rules (link) (http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010126.htm)

[Capper Al]

I'll be getting back into elimination rules soon in my system rewrite. I believe that using elimination rules was the best single piece of advice that I was ever given regarding handicapping.

[mrroyboy]

Thank you all. I know it's a very tough subject. I guess I am looking for short cuts where there aren't any.