Rebel Stakes - Bridge Jumper?

[menifee]

Do they show up here? The horse is going to be 1-2 at most. Possibly 1-5. I could not imagine bridge jumping on a horse that is coming off this long a layoff. I am betting against if they show up here.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Impossible.

AP will be 4/5. Maybe 3/5.

The field isn't near as bad as everyone is talking about.

[Some_One]

If AP is 4/5, he's the value of the race.

[lamboguy]

for me to go against the PHAROAH i would have to see something before the race that doesn't look right on him. like nervousness, body sweat or him not walking around that great and maybe not carrying his head. its not that easy to spot on television most of the time, but on these races they give you plenty of closeup shots. sometimes the commentator says something to those effects and you can pick up on it that something is wrong. without physical signs of this guy maybe not putting in a bad effort ahead of time you will be rooting for something like a disqualification or a rider falloff in order to cash in on a jackpot show payoff. the odds of those things happening are very tiny and even less likely with a trainer of Bob Baffert stature. if i see something wrong with him before the race i will bet against him with a couple of horses, if i don't i will go in the pool and get the 5% myself.

[PizzaCat]

AP hasn't raced in nearly 6 months. That is an eternity for a 2-3 year old. No way would I put any money (let alone jump a bridge) on him if he goes off at under even money, which he most certainly will. Not sure if I will make a play against him, but I do like the 5 today.

[lamboguy]

AP hasn't raced in nearly 6 months. That is an eternity for a 2-3 year old. No way would I put any money (let alone jump a bridge) on him if he goes off at under even money, which he most certainly will. Not sure if I will make a play against him, but I do like the 5 today.i just looked over the race and see that there are a couple of horses that have come out of better races than him so far, like #1+5. i probably will go against him today, he should have over $200,000 to show on him

[letswastemoney]

i just looked over the race and see that there are a couple of horses that have come out of better races than him so far, like #1+5. i probably will go against him today, he should have over $200,000 to show on him
The two horses American Pharoah beat won a Breeders' Cup race and a graded stakes at Santa Anita.

What other horse in the Rebel could have possibly ran against better horses?

[lamboguy]

The two horses American Pharoah beat won a Breeders' Cup race and a graded stakes at Santa Anita.

What other horse in the Rebel could have possibly ran against better horses?
those were 2 year old races

[Bigadam119]

It's speed, speed, speed now at Oaklawn. I don't see how AP loses.

[davew]

It's speed, speed, speed now at Oaklawn. I don't see how AP loses.

A bad break, or a slide that scares the jock enough to pull up. I would never be a jumper on an off track, especially when aiming for a race down the road.

[Tee]

Show dough is starting to pile up 118k out of 169 as I type.

I'm curious to see what :2: Madefromlucky has moving into this type of race.

[PizzaCat]

Walk in the park for AP. Ended up avoiding this one and was impressed by the performance coming off a long layoff in the slop. Slow fractions, but Victor never really had to ask him for anything.

[Bigadam119]

That was too easy. He just toyed with that field. Down the backstretch his ears were pricked and is it were a morning jog.

[TucsonGreyhound]

Surprised the :2: and :5: both paid $2.80 to show. Did the :1: get that much Show action?

[Secondbest]

Cruised went as fast as he had to.Just another workout.

[ultracapper]

his last 5/16ths went 30 flat. Certainly the pace was very, very slow, but he did it without even being slightly asked on a sloppy track. Very impressive.

[menifee]

Race is meaningless given the splits and the way the pace scenario played out.

I hope more talent and more pace shows up in the Arkansas Derby, otherwise this horse will be a big unknown going into the Derby.

[davew]

Surprised the :2: and :5: both paid $2.80 to show. Did the :1: get that much Show action?

This is because of 'net pool' pricing If you can figure the 2 or 3 contenders, even if the bridgejumper hits, you can sometimes still make a profit in the race.

http://www.theredmile.com/redmile/about-us/faq/net-pool-pricing

show pool bets
1-22,646
2-15,236
4-197,258
5-15,619
total show 264,965

[TucsonGreyhound]

This is because of 'net pool' pricing If you can figure the 2 or 3 contenders, even if the bridgejumper hits, you can sometimes still make a profit in the race.

http://www.theredmile.com/redmile/about-us/faq/net-pool-pricing

show pool bets
1-22,646
2-15,236
4-197,258
5-15,619
total show 264,965

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[SandyW]

Surprised the :2: and :5: both paid $2.80 to show. Did the :1: get that much Show action?

It is callled net show pool wagering.

[JustRalph]

a 750k race and the leader gets to go 1:15 for 6.............

nobody wanted to race today

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Damn.

There are some angry people in this thread.

Awesome win by AP. He romped. Serious KD contender.

[PhantomOnTour]

Sinister Minister once romped in a Derby prep also.

I agree with the folks who are withholding judgment after this race, because there simply wasn't much to go on.
He got an easy lead thru tepid splits and trounced his opponents...that feat has been accomplished by horses with far less perceived ability than this colt.

He may be a superstar...but I haven't seen enough to say that myself, yet.

[Some_One]

Sinister Minister once romped in a Derby prep also.

I agree with the folks who are withholding judgment after this race, because there simply wasn't much to go on.
He got an easy lead thru tepid splits and trounced his opponents...that feat has been accomplished by horses with far less perceived ability than this colt.

He may be a superstar...but I haven't seen enough to say that myself, yet.

Sinister Minister goes in the same breathe as Wild Syn, back in the good ole days of the supersonic paved rail highway at Keeneland. Where pretty much any dirt winner at Keeneland did nothing elsewhere.

[raybo]

a 750k race and the leader gets to go 1:15 for 6.............

nobody wanted to race today

I agree, it looked like everyone decided that if AP got the lead they would let him run his race and they would just try to get 2nd. The track was a mess, but that is no excuse for the 1:15+ 6f time.

They literally gave the race to him, not that he wouldn't have won anyway, he was much the best on previous performances, but dang, somebody could have made a better race of it early.

[ultracapper]

The race showed me he has natural speed. A lot of it. Toss the race if you will, but I feel like I did get a little nugget out of it.

[davew]

The race showed me he has natural speed. A lot of it. Toss the race if you will, but I feel like I did get a little nugget out of it.

AP stumbled at the start, almost went down and still shot to the front - if there had been a rabbit, it might have been a different pace/story

[BlueChip@DRF]

Why does the race remind me of Super Ninety-Nine?