Simple betting line

[cj]

I've have tried about everything I can to maximize profit in this game. I've tinkered with making every type of odds line known to man, from complex using tons of factors down to something simple like Steve Fierro uses. Recently, I've been trying the most simple system I've ever tried, and the results have pretty much floored me. All those wasted hours...LOL.

Anyway, here it is. Tell me what you think.

I rate the horses I think are the top 3 horses in each race, 1, 2, and 3. If I can't narrow it down to 3, I pass the race. As soon as one of the following conditions is met, that becomes the bet:

1. If choice 1 is not the favorite, its the bet.
2. If choice 2 is no higher than the public's 4th choice, its the bet
3. If choice 3 is no higher than the public's 5th choice, its the bet

Any horse higher than 5-1 is a WP bet, all others W only.

If none of these conditions are met, no bet.

So far, so good.

I have a similiar system for exactas, but I'll keep it to win only for now.

[Skanoochies]

What if more than one condition is met, Would you bet more than one horse to win? Interesting approach. I guess if some other horse than your three became favorite, all three could be betable.
Keep us posted with the results please. Always interested to learn something new.

Thanks, Skanoochies.:)

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Tell me what you think.

I rate the horses I think are the top 3 horses in each race, 1, 2, and 3. If I can't narrow it down to 3, I pass the race.

That's fine for short fields. For large fields I'd bump it up to four contenders.



Any horse higher than 5-1 is a WP bet, all others W only.

I'd skip the place bet. If you must hedge, use the exacta as a place bet.

[JustMissed]

Unbreakable rules will kick your butt.

You said if you can't get down to 3 contenders you pass the race.

Take a look at this race from the mountain last night:

Mountaineer Park - Monday, May 17th, 2004
Conditions: 5 1/2F Dirt. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. Three Year Olds, 113 lbs.; Older, 121 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 17 Allowed 3 lbs. A Race Since March 17 Allowed 6 lbs. (Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter Races Not Considered In Estimating Allowances).
Value of Race: $31,700 1st $18,386 2nd $6,340 3rd $3,170 4th $1,585 5th $951 6th $634 7th $317 8th $317 Mutuel Pool: $52,688


# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 3/8 Str Fin Jockey Odds
2 Page Me Later 4 F BL 115 2 1 21 21 21 1nk Walker, Jr. Bobby J. 3.70
10 Devilsgonnagetcha 3 F B b 110 10 2 11 11 11/2 23 Whitney Dana G. 9.20
4 Conquer the Day 5 M BL bf 121 4 5 5hd 54 32 33 Nguyen Tho 3.00
3 Free Expresso 5 M BL 115 3 3 31 31/2 43 4nk Parker Deshawn L. *2.00
8 Queenofmountain 5 M BL 115 8 9 94 81/2 72 53/4 Tolentino Pablo 32.20
1 Me Gotta Go 6 M BL bf 116 1 8 72 6hd 6hd 6no Felix Julio E. 8.90
7 Binalongtimecom'en 5 M BL b 115 7 10 10 10 81/2 71 3/4 Quinones Luis M. 68.40
5 Clever Miss Trixie 4 F BL b 121 5 7 81 97 96 81 1/4 Villa-Gomez Huber 15.60
6 Elhew Midway 4 F BL f 115 6 4 41 4hd 51/2 96 3/4 Murphy Chad K. 8.50
9 Perfect Attitude 4 F BL bf 115 9 6 6hd 71 10 10 Martinez, Jr. Luis J. 48.30
Off Time: 1:21 Start: 10 went. Good for all. Track: Fast Weather: Cloudy 74o
Fractions: :222, :462, :592, 1:061 (:22.49, :46.55, :59.46, 1:06.29)


# Horse Win Place Show
2 Page Me Later 9.40 5.80 3.20
10 Devilsgonnagetcha 7.60 4.20
4 Conquer the Day 3.00
Pedigree: 2 - Page Me Later, Chestnut Filly, 4, by Mutakddim - Ms. Major Minnette by Major Impact


Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Perfecta $147.40 2-10 $48,786
$2 Trifecta $630.60 2-10-4 $47,514

I boxed the 2,3,4 & 10 in the exacta and tri. My son left the 10 off his ticket because she was going up in class, I keep her on because she was moving up in class on conditions.

I normally don't like to box, especially 4, but this particuliar race set up so well I felt I would cash some nice tickets or as least recover my cost plus a small profit, if the 10 hit the board.

If you have access to the pp's you might want to handicap this race and you will see what I mean.

JM

[andicap]

I'd like to try it. So simple is makes sense

My problem is while I can get down to 3 contenders, grading them is the problem.

Since I don't want to spend 20 minutes a race going through all the fine points I have a hard time ordering my top three. My final power figures pick the right contenders but not in the right order.

When I've tried just betting 4-1 or over or 5-1 or over it hasn't quite worked. The only thing that's really worked is when I've taken the time to handicap down to the top 2 and bet any of them at 3-1 and over. No bet if both are below 3-1.
Then box them in exactas and play in pick threes 2x2x2.

That's profitable for me but more time consuming -- and I don't have a lot of time. (Damn work and family.)

It's so streaky. During one 10-card test I had a nice profit betting only 3-1/6-1 sweet spot to win when I handicapped down to two. Nothing over 6-1 came in and betting exacta as place bets with long shots was dismal.

Then over the course of three cards I hit a 30-1 and a 11-1 so I was something like 2-30 with horses over 6-1 but with a nice profit. But hitting 7% on those horses drives me crazy!

In my tests, betting just 3-1/6-1 (adjusted for field size) among top three choices is a break even deal for not a lot of work. A good foundation, but it's that next step thats driving me crazy.

Maybe I ought to learn Access and let HTR's database do the work for me?? I've never believed in DB handicapping but if it can eliminate just one horse it would pay off.

Tom, would using HTR's Tester help me out here?

[Exactaman]

a friend of mine did something similar, with decent if not spectacular results. that may have been more a factor of his somewhat esoteric handicapping process. anyway he would bet any of his top 4 i think, the top at 5-1 or more, 2nd 8-1, 3rd 12-1, 4th 20-1, or something like that.

[cj]

Originally posted by Skanoochies
What if more than one condition is met, Would you bet more than one horse to win? Interesting approach. I guess if some other horse than your three became favorite, all three could be betable.
Keep us posted with the results please. Always interested to learn something new.

Thanks, Skanoochies.:)

From the original:
As soon as one of the following conditions is met, that becomes the bet

I should have noted, if I think my top pick is a standout and he goes off favored, I will not bet the others.

[cj]

Originally posted by JustMissed
...Take a look at this race from the mountain last night:...



Actually, I did handicap and bet the race. I had it 2-4-3. You can check the figures on my site. I didn't like the 1 because he hadn't sprinted in a long time. The 3 and 4 had run slightly better numbers than the 2 last out, but were the best numbers in the last 10 races, so I didn't expect improvement. The 2 had competitive numbers, and was on an impovement cycle. I didn't like the long layoff on the 10, so I didn't consider him a win contender.

Anyway, long story short, my top pick wasn't favored, so I bet to win.

[cj]

Originally posted by David McKenzie@HSH
I rate the horses I think are the top 3 horses in each race, 1, 2, and 3. If I can't narrow it down to 3, I pass the race.

That's fine for short fields. For large fields I'd bump it up to four contenders.



Any horse higher than 5-1 is a WP bet, all others W only.

I'd skip the place bet. If you must hedge, use the exacta as a place bet.

I don't bet my fourth choice in a race anymore, it just wasn't profitable for me. (Imperialism sucked me in though :()

As for the exacta as a place bet, the difference in my records is minimal. It is slightly better with the exactas, but not enough to endure the agony I feel when I miss the winner to make it good for me.

[JustMissed]

CJ,

I used to subscribe to Jerry"Little Joe"Stokes weekly handicapping lessons. I learned quite abit from him.

I think it real nice for us to occasionally handicap the same race and go through our thinking on selection and betting.

Nothing better than first hand experience but it is real helpful to see what others do.

JM

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I don't bet my fourth choice in a race anymore, it just wasn't profitable for me. (Imperialism sucked me in though :()

As for the exacta as a place bet, the difference in my records is minimal. It is slightly better with the exactas, but not enough to endure the agony I feel when I miss the winner to make it good for me.

Are you saying you bet this horse. In this thread you said he had no chance. I'm just asking.
Andy continues to amaze me by picking horses his numbers say have no shot. I remember when he was touting Birdstone after his low 90 Beyer allowance win at GP as a Derby winner...I was like, WHAT? Imperialism has never run a race that could get him a win today, and its not like he is improving.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I don't bet my fourth choice in a race anymore...

cj,

I'm not suggesting you bet your fourth contender. I'm suggesting you make four contenders for a large field, then assign those four contenders x% of the probability of winning the race (with the balance of the probability assigned to the non-contenders). From there you can use one of your algorithms to assign individual probabilities based on factors and weights of your own ratiocination .

I'm currently using 88% as the magic number.

To illustrate, if I'm handicapping a six horse field I'll assign 88% probability to my top three horses -- the contenders. The remaining 12% will go to the other three horses -- the pretenders.

I've dabbled around with 80% to 90%, but for the time being I'm happy with 88%.

Note, none of this is original. As Sartin said, "We only steal from the best!"

[cj]

Originally posted by Speed Figure

Are you saying you bet this horse. In this thread you said he had no chance. I'm just asking.
Andy continues to amaze me by picking horses his numbers say have no shot. I remember when he was touting Birdstone after his low 90 Beyer allowance win at GP as a Derby winner...I was like, WHAT? Imperialism has never run a race that could get him a win today, and its not like he is improving.

My bad, I didn't bet him, it was the Pletcher guy whose name escapes me. He ran fourth in the Derby. (Limehouse, just came to me!) Sorry about that. I'm a numbers guy :)

[Tom]

CJ...I like it a lot. Simple, easy to remeber, logical. I have an unwritten rule the any contender I have in the top three going off at 5-1 or more is an automoatic WP bet- 1 unit win 3 units place. I picked that up from Doc Sartin years ago and it has served me well. I love hitting those $10 place horses wtih 3 units on them.

Andicap...yes-tester can make life easier. I used tester for both KOTH contests and hit some nice prices while not spend an awful lot of time working races. Even when Belmont was in the fourth day and sometimes the model only had 4 races in it, I used it and it paid off. Just filter in tis order-surface, age, class, sex. If you need more races, combine sex first, then class, then puint LOL
But I just look for factors where the winners are in the top 2 more than others.
Say you have 10 turf routes, allowance grade.

Top 2 F1 wins 5
Top 2 EP wins 9
Top 2 AP wins 13
Top 2 SP wins 11
Top 2 LP wins 9
Top2 F3 wins 9
Tops C90 wins 15

Pure speed is more important than pace in this sample. It is the sample wining now, so I use it. I don't give a rat's hat what the overall model for the whole year or last years says-right now, this is what is winning.

I am looking for horse that are top 2 in AP with an edge towards sustained, but not necessarily late, and wtih the better C90 ratings. I might have only two horses and I might have 4- some will have more than one of these factors going for them.
This narrows the field down generally. And it give me an idea of what shape the race might take. This data telss me to look for horses who make middle moves and can sustain them- EP is improtant but not front end speed early on. And deep closers are not out of the question, but horses running a bit earlier might do better.

Now, if you use Access (or even Excel) you can do a lot more things- like come up with minimum requriements, kind of like pars, but more specific. I have set up parameters for Pscan, C90, AP, F3, EP, and Percent early energy and sort them from hight to low. I use 805 as my minimum foe each. I want the horse to have numbers that are above the 20th percentile in order to be a contender. The more factors he meets, the more I like the horse.
I roll tis info out after using Tester.

[BetHorses!]

CJ

Out of your top 3 contenders why not just bet the one with the longest odds as they're walking in the gate. Bet Win only skip the place crap. Rebate helps but prob only get 5% due to only betting Win


I started cutting down my bets recently. I used to key a horse 1st and 2nd in ex and tri's but now just put on top only unless key horse is 15-1 or greater then I use in 2nd slot