***Road To Derby Plays***

[SecretAgentMan]

Another Kentucky Derby is upon us, & with a little bit over 4 weeks of prep races remaining, it remains to be seen who the favorites & co-favorites & what bottom feeders can get into the KD.


(Dortmund) looks very good, he's a big horse, & has plenty of room to still get better. I think his best races will come at the age 4, & he's undefeated at 5 for 5, with the Santa Anita derby pending.

He will be tested by the injured but supposedly healed Texas Red on April 4. (Texas Red) gets in with a 2nd place, & possibly with a 3rd as well.......he has 12 points as of now. 3rd place gets him 20 points, so 32 points total should get him in, but after that ridiculous race of 7f entered by his trainer, instead of finding him a 1 1/16 race.

IMO, Texas Red struck gold when he won the BCJ G1 race........he's a decent horse, but IMO, he's not a KD winner.


(Carpe Diem) is interesting, he ran 2nd to Texas Red in the BCJ & beat out Upstart by a nose for 2nd. This is one of Pletchers top 3 yr old horses this year & by the looks if it, Pletcher will try to fit in as many as 5 or 6 derby horses, but his less talented need the points to get in. Carpe Diem is already thanks to a great run in the Tampa Bay derby, although his competition wasn't that great. I still want to see another race by this horse, & I believe his next race is in the Bluegrass at Keenland on April 4.

[SecretAgentMan]

(American Pharaoh) is IMO the best front runner amongst the 3 yr old males. Too bad this horse got injured about a week before entering the gate in the BCJ vs Texas Red, Upstart & Carpe Diem. I really would have liked to have seen him stayed healthy & ran.

I hope he's ready to go & wins the Rebel decisively, then comes back healthy & wins the Arkansas derby in April. If he completes these tasks, wins & stays healthy, he might be the favorite come derby day. Dortmund should handle his competition in the SA derby on April 4, which will make him undefeated, & with Carpe Diem winning at Keenland April 4, we will possibly be looking vat 3 co-favorites.

If my above scenarios pan out, the favorite derby day will be a like 4-1, so these horses will offer a lot of value for the public. Dortmund isn't a Cali Chrome, so let's not compare them. I'm assuming Baffert will rate Dortmund in the SA derby getting him ready for the KD.


(Firing Line) is a beast & should have beaten Dortmund in one of his back to back losses, by a head twice. Firing Line had a 1 length lead on Dortmund in the RBLewis G3 race & gave up the lead after Dortmund closed strong on him. The 1st loss was more dramatic at Los Alamitos, which seems Dortmund doesn't like horses passing him, qualities of a warrior.

Firing Line had a chance to set up a rematch for a 3rd time but his trainer is making the right move to stay away from Dortmund by going to Sunland to get the sure points, & not to battle the stretch & run his eyeballs out. 1st or 2nd & Firing Line is in the KD, thanks to the supposed easy race at Sunland.


(Upstart) ran a decent race in the BCJ vs Texas Red & Carpe Diem, although losing by over 6 lengths, he was coming out of the 11 hole & breaking slow out of the gate didn't help his cause. It was also his first time at a two turn race of his career.

Upstart won his last race handily IMO, & after watching the race several times, the stewards should be investigated for cheating. Frosted clearly on the rail came out into Upstart bumping him which made Upstart come out a bit in front of Itsaknockout, but Upstart from what I saw didn't cut off Itsaknockout, the horse didn't pull up or check.......Upstart clearly was the better horse that day & won easily.

Upstart will be looking to get revenge on March 28th in the Florida Derby. There will be a few other horses in the race looking to win some points to advance into the KD........the only thing that looked bad in the FOY was the final time of 1:46......the first 3 quarters of the race were legit, so I'm assuming with the bumping, & what not down the stretch has more to do with that slow final time.

Also, its been dry at Gulfstream this year, not much rain, I think that may have something to do with the times this year, as they are no where close to the times of last year, or the year before. I'm ready to see what fractions these horses in the Florida Derby put up come March 28.

[Spiderman]

(American Pharaoh) is IMO the best front runner amongst the 3 yr old males. Too bad this horse got injured about a week before entering the gate in the BCJ vs Texas Red, Upstart & Carpe Diem. I really would have liked to have seen him stayed healthy & ran.

I hope he's ready to go & wins the Rebel decisively, then comes back healthy & wins the Arkansas derby in April. If he completes these tasks, wins & stays healthy, he might be the favorite come derby day. Dortmund should handle his competition in the SA derby on April 4, which will make him undefeated, & with Carpe Diem winning at Keenland April 4, we will possibly be looking vat 3 co-favorites.

If my above scenarios pan out, the favorite derby day will be a like 4-1, so these horses will offer a lot of value for the public. Dortmund isn't a Cali Chrome, so let's not compare them. I'm assuming Baffert will rate Dortmund in the SA derby getting him ready for the KD.


(Firing Line) is a beast & should have beaten Dortmund in one of his back to back losses, by a head twice. Firing Line had a 1 length lead on Dortmund in the RBLewis G3 race & gave up the lead after Dortmund closed strong on him. The 1st loss was more dramatic at Los Alamitos, which seems Dortmund doesn't like horses passing him, qualities of a warrior.

Firing Line had a chance to set up a rematch for a 3rd time but his trainer is making the right move to stay away from Dortmund by going to Sunland to get the sure points, & not to battle the stretch & run his eyeballs out. 1st or 2nd & Firing Line is in the KD, thanks to the supposed easy race at Sunland.


(Upstart) ran a decent race in the BCJ vs Texas Red & Carpe Diem, although losing by over 6 lengths, he was coming out of the 11 hole & breaking slow out of the gate didn't help his cause. It was also his first time at a two turn race of his career.

Upstart won his last race handily IMO, & after watching the race several times, the stewards should be investigated for cheating. Frosted clearly on the rail came out into Upstart bumping him which made Upstart come out a bit in front of Itsaknockout, but Upstart from what I saw didn't cut off Itsaknockout, the horse didn't pull up or check.......Upstart clearly was the better horse that day & won easily.

Upstart will be looking to get revenge on March 28th in the Florida Derby. There will be a few other horses in the race looking to win some points to advance into the KD........the only thing that looked bad in the FOY was the final time of 1:46......the first 3 quarters of the race were legit, so I'm assuming with the bumping, & what not down the stretch has more to do with that slow final time.

Also, its been dry at Gulfstream this year, not much rain, I think that may have something to do with the times this year, as they are no where close to the times of last year, or the year before. I'm ready to see what fractions these horses in the Florida Derby put up come March 28.

Looked at PPs for upcoming Rebel. American Pharoah has a spectacular workout pattern with real race horse times. He should be prepared to take control and coast home. Only possible upsetter is the private purchase, 2nd start for Pletcher, Madefromlucky, who loves distance.

The Derby will be a battle-royale on the front end. The best position for Dortmund and Firing Line would be in the 2nd flight, stalking the heat on the lead.

[SecretAgentMan]

(El Kabeir) very interesting horse. Has won 3 of past 4 races, & with Far From Over winning his race in spectacular fashion, it only makes El Kabeir look that much better. He won his first graded stakes race at Churchill at 1 1/16 wire to wire.

He wired the field in his first two wins, & since then, has rated well & stalked the pace to win his past 2 of 3 races. IMO, the only way this horse wins the derby is with a hot pace up front & closes on them like Giacomo or MTB. If he goes to the front, he will burn up in the KD.


(International Star) this horse won his maiden race on turf, won the Grey Cup G3 in Canada on polytrack, & won his past two races in closing fashion, the style possibly needed this year with the front runners & all the speed that will be up front going in the KD.



(Mr Z) Lukas gonna try to win another derby with a horse thats a consistent money maker but cant win. He has 4 seconds & 3 thirds.......the only win coming in his 1st race of his career, a maiden race. He ran 3 G1 races & 4 G3 races.......with one G2 in his young career.

10 starts is quite a lot now a days, but that's Lukas, he runs his horses into the ground. Gone are the days where horses were constantly raced. He ran quite well coming in 3rd by a neck to Firing Line & Dortmund. He raced pretty much vs everyone in the top 20 list of derby entrants. You can't argue this horse doesn't give his all every race, but I think he's in too deep on derby day.


(Itsaknockout) got a gift by the stewards in his last race......I doubt he gets lucky like this in the KD. IMO, he doesn't have enough races under his belt going intothe KD.......llet's see his true colors on March 28 vs Upstart.


(Far From Over) this horse pulled a Touch Gold, breaking bad, giving his opponents a 10 length lead, & still winning the race...... He's too lightly raced & doesn't have the experience to win the KD, BUT, this horse fits perfectly for the Belmont Stakes. If he races in the KD, look for him to close late for a possible 4th or 5th place finish.......he will skip the Preakness, & then go into Belmont fresh & ready to win.

[SecretAgentMan]

Looked at PPs for upcoming Rebel. American Pharoah has a spectacular workout pattern with real race horse times. He should be prepared to take control and coast home. Only possible upsetter is the private purchase, 2nd start for Pletcher, Madefromlucky, who loves distance.

The Derby will be a battle-royale on the front end. The best position for Dortmund and Firing Line would be in the 2nd flight, stalking the heat on the lead.


Yes, it will be crazy up front with all the speed. Dortmund & Firing Line better rate & stalk the leaders, or they will be cooked up.



I'm ready for the excitement to begin this Saturday with the Rebel G2 stakes.......American Pharaoh has been working out really well, hoping to see it convert over in a win this Saturday.

[SecretAgentMan]

My plays for the upcoming prep races:

Rebel Stakes: American Pharaoh (needs to win to impress his owners & trainer, but will also run in the Arkansas derby on April 11 even if he does really well, gotta have one more race)


March 22:

Sunland Derby: Firing Line (should smoke this field like a pack of Kools)



March 28:

Louisiana Derby: Keen Ice (my long shot of all prep races)

Florida Derby: Upstart (should get revenge on Itsaknockout & get the win by 1.5 to 2 lengths)
________________________________________________


April 4:

Santa Anita Derby: Dortmund (will Baffert have him cranked up to win? I think Baffert goes for the win, he won't be holding back. 6 for 6 going into the KD for Dortmund.

Wood Memorial: (El Kabeir will be the favorite, but this race is wide open IMO, so its anyone's race)

Bluegrass: Carpe Diem (he solidifies his presence amongst the elite of this years 3 yr olds heading into the KD with a win here.
__________________________________________________ ____


April 11:

Arkansas Derby: American Pharaoh (I expect him to win this convincingly throwing any doubt in anyone's mind about his health out the window.

Lexington: (don't much much stock in this race much anymore)

UAE Derby: (I care less about this race than the Lexington)

[letswastemoney]

First Lexington on dirt in a long time. The race might hold some significance now.

[SecretAgentMan]

First Lexington on dirt in a long time. The race might hold some significance now.


The winner gets only 10 points, so we might see a horse making its final stance trying to win a KD entry by racing in Lexington.

I'm glad to see Keenland move back to dirt. All these major prep races should always be run on dirt.

I'm thinking it will be no namers running in the Lexington making a final push towards making the KD. I remember Charismatic winning that race & posting a 108 beyer to make it in with his earnings. Lukas sure knows how to turn claimers into a possible triple crown threat, haha!

[rastajenk]

So the Lexington is now three weeks out from the Derby, not two? And on dirt, no less. That could have a small effect on some of the players' game plans; it may have a different feel than most recent Lexingtons. We might see something improve a lot at the right time, you never know. I wouldn't write off the Lexington a month away.

It seems that the Blue Grass is a week earlier, too. I hadn't gotten into it enough to notice the changes.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not writing off the Lexington as much as I don't care much for it. Its only given us 1 derby winner that needed to win the Lexington just to make the derby, & that horse was in a claiming race .......everyone knows about Charismatic.

You really have to be at the edge of the bubble looking to get into the derby for the Lexington to mean anything g since its only worth 10 points to the winner. What it will do is cause chaos at the bottom part of the point standings........I definitely like the point standings tons better than the old earnings scenario.

The Lexington pushed back to 3 weeks before the derby actually will help those horses coming out of that race to rest a bit. I was glad to see the Bluegrass pushed back to 4 weeks.......I would like to see the Arkansas Derby do the same.......that would be 4 awesome prep races in one day. Horses are different now a days than they once were, & they need several weeks to rest.

To make it interesting, move the Arkansas derby back to the same day as the SA derby, Bluegrass & Wood.......then make the Lexington a 50 point race to the winner.

[Investorater]

Maybe American Pharoah will win The Rebel by about as many lengths (9 1/2) as Bodemeister (same stable) did after the Arkansas Derby. (2012) (the win was declared by me on this board)

:cool:I now proclaim that *DORTMUND* (*Dorty) (The Dort) (DortMan*) is of right now my only KY Derby choice for the Win/Place/Show..........

*Heard in this post first.\O/

[SecretAgentMan]

Maybe American Pharoah will win The Rebel by about as many lengths (9 1/2) as Bodemeister (same stable) did after the Arkansas Derby. (2012) (the win was declared by me on this board)

:cool:I now proclaim that *DORTMUND* (*Dorty) (The Dort) (DortMan*) is of right now my only KY Derby choice for the Win/Place/Show..........

*Heard in this post first.\O/


Dortmund, aye........he is a beast of a race horse. I know he's 5 for 5 looking to win 6 in a row, but I think he will be a better race horse at age 4 & up. He's still filling out & IMO, will be an amazing horse to watch .......good luck on your pick, but I won't be backing him on derby day.

[Investorater]

Dortmund, aye........he is a beast of a race horse. I know he's 5 for 5 looking to win 6 in a row, but I think he will be a better race horse at age 4 & up. He's still filling out & IMO, will be an amazing horse to watch for.......good luck on your pick, but I won't be backing him on derby day.

CoR-R-R-R-R-R-R-ect. . . . . . . . . .and Thanks.

[SecretAgentMan]

American Pharaoh is 1/2 in the ML & I think he wins easily. A tougher task for him will be April 11th, & I think he wins that race as well.

Baffert definitely starts at least 2 horses in the derby while Pletcher is looking to insert at least 3

I've been looking at Lukas's horse Mr Z......reminds me of Giacomo, can never win in his preps but is guaranteed in the money. He has a lot of experience & will be an interesting horse going forward. I don't think he's capable of winning at a distance of a 1 1/4 race.

Bring on the April races....

[SecretAgentMan]

Just as I thought & most people thought, & we enjoyed watching American Pharaoh toying with the Rebel field & opening up to win wire to wire by nearly 9 lengths........

Great workout/run by Pharaoh & he showed he's back in track........I clearly think he will win the Arkansas derby.

Now Baffert clearly has the 2 favs going into the KD. If Pharaoh wins as I expect him in the Ark derby, IMO, he will be the fav over Dortmund. Will be very interesting how Baffert races both Dortmund & Pharaoh in the derby.

Pharaoh clearly likes the lead, while Dortmund is capable of being rated.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Just as I thought & most people thought, & we enjoyed watching American Pharaoh toying with the Rebel field & opening up to win wire to wire by nearly 9 lengths........

Great workout/run by Pharaoh & he showed he's back in track........I clearly think he will win the Arkansas derby.

Now Baffert clearly has the 2 favs going into the KD. If Pharaoh wins as I expect him in the Ark derby, IMO, he will be the fav over Dortmund. Will be very interesting how Baffert races both Dortmund & Pharaoh in the derby.

Pharaoh clearly likes the lead, while Dortmund is capable of being rated.

Clearly.

[SecretAgentMan]

Just read that Pharaoh bent his right shoe from the gate & ran the whole distance of the race with a bent shoe.......Baffert stated that's the kind of horse he is, just a great horse.

[SecretAgentMan]

Quote from Baffert:

"I was a little bit concerned at the break because Victor said he moved right before they broke... he stumbled and he grabbed himself," said Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has now won five of the past six editions of the Rebel. "I just talked to (assistant trainer) Jimmy (Barnes) and I guess he sprung the right shoe pretty well, he noticed it when he came back. He was running with a shoe bent the whole way around there, which just goes to show you what kind of a horse he is.

[Rex Phinney]

Just as I thought & most people thought, & we enjoyed watching American Pharaoh toying with the Rebel field & opening up to win wire to wire by nearly 9 lengths........

Great workout/run by Pharaoh & he showed he's back in track........I clearly think he will win the Arkansas derby.

Now Baffert clearly has the 2 favs going into the KD. If Pharaoh wins as I expect him in the Ark derby, IMO, he will be the fav over Dortmund. Will be very interesting how Baffert races both Dortmund & Pharaoh in the derby.

Pharaoh clearly likes the lead, while Dortmund is capable of being rated.

Dortmund hasn't been anywhere but the lead in anay race since November.

The race today was another snooze fest, Baffert horse on the lead, no one challenging early, horse kicks away and wins. That won't win the Derby, it just won't

[f2tornado]

Nice run by Pharaoh but I'm not yet on the bandwagon. A good recovery after a minor stumble out of the gate but the 1/2 mile in 49.63 is brutal. Even a cheap claimer can easily match that. AP certainly closed extremely fast taking the final half furlong in just over six seconds. He's likely gonna have to lead with or run into faster early fractions in Kentucky (Uncle Sigh hit the 1/2 in 47.37 last year) and then the question is how much is left in the tank going down the stretch. He might not see much pressure in the Ark either and doubt an extra half furlong changes anything. Gonna be tough to go all in come Derby day. Will use in the Future wager as a saver bet and hope he gets beat. Too good to ignore but not enough evidence he's the next Derby winner. Different tracks and conditions but do note Dortmund was four seconds faster in the San Felipe and Carpe Diem was two seconds faster in Tampa.

[SecretAgentMan]

Dortmund hasn't been anywhere but the lead in anay race since November.

The race today was another snooze fest, Baffert horse on the lead, no one challenging early, horse kicks away and wins. That won't win the Derby, it just won't



I agree that Pharaoh won't win the derby on the front end like he did the Rebel.......neither will Dortmund. I think there will be quite a bit of speed in the KD this year, but Baffert isn't stupid, he will likely try & rate Dortmund. If not, Pharaoh & Dortmund will go at it, because Pharaoh is supposedly the better speed of the two.


Several offshore books have these odds:


American Pharaoh 8-1

Dortmund 8-1

Texas Red 12-1

Carpe Diem 12-1


Of course, come derby day these odds will be shorter. If Pharaoh, Dortmund & Carpe Diem all win their last prep race, they will all be around 4-1 or 5-1 on derby day. There won't be a clear cut favorite like Chrome last year.

[SecretAgentMan]

Nice run by Pharaoh but I'm not yet on the bandwagon. A good recovery after a minor stumble out of the gate but the 1/2 mile in 49.63 is brutal. Even a cheap claimer can easily match that. AP certainly closed extremely fast taking the final half furlong in just over six seconds. He's likely gonna have to lead with or run into faster early fractions in Kentucky (Uncle Sigh hit the 1/2 in 47.37 last year) and then the question is how much is left in the tank going down the stretch. He might not see much pressure in the Ark either and doubt an extra half furlong changes anything. Gonna be tough to go all in come Derby day. Will use in the Future wager as a saver bet and hope he gets beat. Too good to ignore but not enough evidence he's the next Derby winner. Different tracks and conditions but do note Dortmund was four seconds faster in the San Felipe and Carpe Diem was two seconds faster in Tampa.



American Pharaoh IMO won't be winning any KD trophy come May. I want to see how AP comes out of this race, I want to see how he eats & continues to train. Baffert is no idiot, & its gonna be interesting to see how he sets up the game plan for both AP & Dort.

[SecretAgentMan]

My derby horses as of now are:


El Kabeir (don't worry about his slow times, he's a conisitent horse that has rated well in his past 3 races)

Upstart (revenge in mind vs ItsaKnockout on March 28, IMO, its a 2 horse race)

Firing Line (don't see any competition for this horse at Sunland.....should win easily. Not many races under his belt, but has raced vs one of the best so far in Dortmund)

International Star (has ran 2 good races in his past 2 & won......looking forward to see how he preps in the LA derby for the KD)

[f2tornado]

El Kabeir - I'm warming up to this horse. Had race of the week using Steve Roman's pace figures. I like Far From Over better from breeding standpoint plus the head to head victory but EK definitely has the foundation advantage.

Upstart - Agree with your assessment. Will ignore FOY for now. Chalk exacta. I was higher on Orb at this point a couple years ago than this fellow however.

Firing Line - Could be an elite mile to mile and sixteenth horse but don't see him winning the classics. Goldencents Jr. and nothing wrong with that.

International Star - I'm not that high on this horse but already lost money betting against it twice. Louisiana seems to send a horse to Kentucky that hits the board but that horse has been something goofy the past two years (Commanding Curve and Golden Soul). Perhaps the same theme will work again. Consider a horse that finished third or fourth in the Louisiana Derby for your exotics. I

[ReplayRandall]

Louisiana seems to send a horse to Kentucky that hits the board but that horse has been something goofy the past two years (Commanding Curve and Golden Soul). Perhaps the same theme will work again. Consider a horse that finished third or fourth in the Louisiana Derby for your exotics. I
Nice insight for possible huge score....

[SecretAgentMan]

Sunland Derby on Sunday March 22nd will be a big play for me on Firing Line......he's sitting at #27 place on point standings & needs a win to get in the derby. A second place might get him also after catching 20 points, that would make him at 28 points which should have him in......

So my big play will be on Firing Line to PLACE

[SecretAgentMan]

El Kabeir - I'm warming up to this horse. Had race of the week using Steve Roman's pace figures. I like Far From Over better from breeding standpoint plus the head to head victory but EK definitely has the foundation advantage.

Upstart - Agree with your assessment. Will ignore FOY for now. Chalk exacta. I was higher on Orb at this point a couple years ago than this fellow however.

Firing Line - Could be an elite mile to mile and sixteenth horse but don't see him winning the classics. Goldencents Jr. and nothing wrong with that.

International Star - I'm not that high on this horse but already lost money betting against it twice. Louisiana seems to send a horse to Kentucky that hits the board but that horse has been something goofy the past two years (Commanding Curve and Golden Soul). Perhaps the same theme will work again. Consider a horse that finished third or fourth in the Louisiana Derby for your exotics. I



Yes, Orb was coming into his own big time & looked like he was the best horse going into the derby by far.....I'm expecting a big jump up in numbers by Upstart. He actually needed to regress in the FOY after he ran a fast race in the Holy Bull putting up a 105 beyer.

No way could he have ran another good race like that & be expected to go into the derby to win. I expect a 102 to 104 from him in the Floriday derby.

I want to see Firing Line run a big race around a 102 beyer. A possible 3 to 4 length win. His trainer/owners are stupid, they needed to get away from Dortmund to have an easier race of winning & not take much out of the horse while getting into the derby.

As you mentioned, the Fairgrounds have been a stepping stone towards getting 2nd place in the derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

^^^^^^

Meant to say Firing Lines trainer/owners are NOT stupid......damn smart phones!

[f2tornado]

As you mentioned, the Fairgrounds have been a stepping stone towards getting 2nd place in the derby.

As discussed in the Buckpasser thread, Golden Soul had the conduit mare going for him. So did Mucho Macho Man. Commanding Curve had the Buck-X. Stanley's system opened my eyes to these things. Even though some oddball might not qualify on fractions it may have something else going for it. My old man used to order Stanley's stuff from AT every Triple Crown season. If only he bet what was on the sheet he'd be set for a while. Make the $1 exacta box and 50 cent tri wheels noted on the Belmont sheet last year and pocket close to $2000. Much respect.

[SecretAgentMan]

Texas Red is off the derby trail, as his trainer doesn't think he's ready yet.......I was hoping he would cone in 2nd to Dortmund & take money in the KD, as I didnt like him at all.

[Rex Phinney]

Texas Red is off the derby trail, as his trainer doesn't think he's ready yet.......I was hoping he would cone in 2nd to Dortmund & take money in the KD, as I didnt like him at all.

There is no way in a million years Dortmund would beat Texas Red at 10 furlongs at CD.

[delsully]

For a horse who hasn't raced in nearly 6 months, I thought AP looked really good.

[sbcaris]

Rex Phinney: How can you be so sure of the above statement?

"There is no way that Dortmund could beat Texas Red at 10 furlongs."

[Rex Phinney]

Rex Phinney: How can you be so sure of the above statement?

"There is no way that Dortmund could beat Texas Red at 10 furlongs."

Easy, I watched Texas Red circle the field on a track where noone wins that way, on the same day Bayern won a $5,000,000 race over the track.

Dortmund is cheap speed, he runs just like every other horse Baffert has in his barn, totally one dimensional.

There are no easy leads in the Kentucky Derby. I hope Dortmund does make the race and that he is 3-1. If he and American Pharaoh make the race it will be a disaster for Baffert.

[SecretAgentMan]

There is no way in a million years Dortmund would beat Texas Red at 10 furlongs at CD.



IMO, Texas Red is a good horse, but he hasn't been able to race due to his injury. I was hoping he could show us how good Carpe Diem.really is, as well as Upstart, but now we won't get to see him run vs the supposedly best 3 yr old in Dortmund.

Dortmund shows resilience & heart, & if a horse gets by him, he comes right back to win. Dortmund is on a different level in Cali. He's not as good as Chrome, that I'm.sure of.........& of course there will be people saying, but these horses haven't beaten anyone. They've only been racing about 6 months, so they only can run against the horses that ate in the race with them.

I don't think we will see a clear cut favorite this year as we saw with Chrome last year.

[SecretAgentMan]

For a horse who hasn't raced in nearly 6 months, I thought AP looked really good.



I actually expected AP to run well, even tho its been 6 months. Baffert usually has his horses ready to win off the layoff. I was really surprised how well he ran with a shoe that got bent.

AP will be a dominant horse at 1 1/16........he may also win in the Ark derby at 1 1/8, but I don't know if he can run the 1 1/4, especially wire to wire. Justin Zayat says AP can rate & Baffert has rated him in the morning.

Zayat says that if there's a speed horse in the derby that's faster & goes out to take the lead, AP will rate......of course this is all talk.

I myself won't play a horse to wire the field at a 1 1/4......then again, War Emblem did it in 2002, & Baffert was the trainer.

[Rex Phinney]

Horses don't just all the sudden learn to rate. Every time I have ever heard a connection say that it's always been total shenanigans.

It's like "Well we know in his last few races he shot right to the front and had to contend with noone, nor deal with any traffic, never saw another horse out there and he won by open lengths. But what we are going to do now is throw him in a field of 20, sit him back off the lead let him deal with traffic, dirt in his face and horses leaning on him, and he should be fine".

LOL, Right.

[SecretAgentMan]

Horses don't just all the sudden learn to rate. Every time I have ever heard a connection say that it's always been total shenanigans.

It's like "Well we know in his last few races he shot right to the front and had to contend with noone, nor deal with any traffic, never saw another horse out there and he won by open lengths. But what we are going to do now is throw him in a field of 20, sit him back off the lead let him deal with traffic, dirt in his face and horses leaning on him, and he should be fine".

LOL, Right.


Hey, I agree......there's one thing that's been nagging at me tho. Baffert was quoted as saying, "AP is the best horse he's ever had", Baffert doesnt usually overstate things.

He's had the great Silver Charm, Real Quiet (who by the way was the closest horse to almost win the triple crown), Point Given, Bodemeister, & I can go on & on.

Unless I heard wrong, I believe that what he stated.

Like Texas Red, I wish we could have seen both of them race several more times & had stayed healthy before the derby.

I'm assuming AP wires the field in the Arkansas derby........

[delsully]

I actually expected AP to run well, even tho its been 6 months. Baffert usually has his horses ready to win off the layoff. I was really surprised how well he ran with a shoe that got bent.

AP will be a dominant horse at 1 1/16........he may also win in the Ark derby at 1 1/8, but I don't know if he can run the 1 1/4, especially wire to wire. Justin Zayat says AP can rate & Baffert has rated him in the morning.

Zayat says that if there's a speed horse in the derby that's faster & goes out to take the lead, AP will rate......of course this is all talk.

I myself won't play a horse to wire the field at a 1 1/4......then again, War Emblem did it in 2002, & Baffert was the trainer.

My point exactly, he ran well with the shoe issue, off a long break, and on a wet track. Visually speaking, he definitely looked the part.

It would be nice to see him get a test in the Arkansas, we'll see what kind of field we get.

As far as the derby, AP certainly has some questions (just like most of the others).

[SecretAgentMan]

My point exactly, he ran well with the shoe issue, off a long break, and on a wet track. Visually speaking, he definitely looked the part.

It would be nice to see him get a test in the Arkansas, we'll see what kind of field we get.

As far as the derby, AP certainly has some questions (just like most of the others).


Usually when a horse loses a shoe, bends a shoe as bad as AP did, they don't smell the finish line 1st.....he over came a lot & still won. That tells me Baffert has a reason for proclaiming AP as his best horse ever.

Baffert had a horse in 2002 named War Emblem that he picked up several weeks before the derby & had him ready in only a few weeks to wire the field in Kentucky.

IMO, War Emblem was peaking at the right time, & Baffert picking him up was the right formula. AP IMO is better than War Emblem, but time will truly tell if I'm correct about it.

I believe it was 14 years between Winning Colors wiring the field & War Emblem.......very rare for horses to wire the derby. Its now 13 years from War Emblem to this years derby........let's see how AP handles the Arkansas field first.

[SecretAgentMan]

Read an article that showed a photo of the separation of Pharaoh's shoe from his hoof......it was over 1.5 inches.......I'm wondering if AP's foot bad bruised at all, but Baffert & the vet stated he dodged a major bullet & is in excellent shape.

Looking like Baffert will take Dortmund & AP both into the derby undefeated.

[SecretAgentMan]

Read an article that showed a photo of the separation of Pharaoh's shoe from his hoof......it was over 1.5 inches.......I'm wondering if AP's foot bad bruised at all, but Baffert & the vet stated he dodged a major bullet & is in excellent shape.

Looking like Baffert will take Dortmund & AP both into the derby undefeated.



^^^^^

Pardon my stupidity, AP isn't undefeated......

[SecretAgentMan]

American Pharoah 9/2
Dortmund 7/1
Carpe Diem 10/1
El Kabeir 20/1
Upstart 20/1
Competitive Edge 20/1
Far From Over 20/1
Itsaknockout 20/1
Khozan 20/1
Prospect Park 20/1
Daredevil 25/1
Ocean Knight 25/1
Far Right 25/1
Firing Line 25/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 25/1
International Star 25/1
Mubtaahij 25/1
I Spent It 33/1
Lord Nelson 33/1
Startup Nation 33/1
Dream It Again 33/1
Cozmic One 33/1
Frosted 33/1
Imperia 33/1
Hootenanny 33/1
War Story 40/1
Prayers And Angles 50/1
Mr Z 50/1



These are the latest odds from a sports book .......

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Funny how Cozmic One is still getting money even though he hasn't even run a race yet!

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Oh and Khozan is off the derby trail so that list is just old I guess.

[SecretAgentMan]

Oh and Khozan is off the derby trail so that list is just old I guess.


Nope, that list is up to date as of Match 18th from Bovada......then again, I think Bovada is a crooked sports book, so maybe they're just trying g to trap unknowing bettors.

Got the list from a very dependable horse racing site.

[SecretAgentMan]

As of now, my derby horses are:

International Star

Upstart



That's it, those are the only 2 I like as of now......will watch the next 2 weeks of big preps & decide of I should add anyone else, but I doubt I will.

Some years it takes until the last prep race to figure out a possible derby winner, & things may change very fast for me if I see a surprise like horse like Charismatic, but I doubt we will see anything crazy like that this year.

I'm throwing out all the Spiral stakes horses, none of them can win the derby IMO.......even tho Dubai Sky finished the race 2 seconds faster than Animal Kingdom.

[SecretAgentMan]

Picked the 9 with the 12/11 yesterday in the Spiral, didn't have any money in the race.......

I like Firing Line for the Sunland derby.....as for Exactas, your guess is as good as mine, & I won't be betting this race either, not much money to be made on FL to win.

[SecretAgentMan]

Firing Line complimented Dortmund with the easiest win of all prep races so far this year, way too easy of a winner.......Firing Line will probably receive about a 102 beyer, maybe more, we shall see ........Sunland is known to be a fast track.....finished in 1:47 & change at 1 1/8th race.

I'm thinking Firing Line will be the 3rd choice in Kentucky behind Pharaoh & Dortmund, assuming they win their races.

[nads1420]

Firing Line complimented Dortmund with the easiest win of all prep races so far this year, way too easy of a winner.......Firing Line will probably receive about a 102 beyer, maybe more, we shall see ........Sunland is known to be a fast track.....finished in 1:47 & change at 1 1/8th race.

I'm thinking Firing Line will be the 3rd choice in Kentucky behind Pharaoh & Dortmund, assuming they win their races.

I think if Carpe Diem wins the Blue Grass he will be the 3rd choice. The only race he ever lostwas the Breeders Cup Juvenile he had a absolute terrible trip. 3 wide around the 1st turn 6 wide around the far turn and got cut off. Then he still passed the majority of the field to finish 2nd.

[SecretAgentMan]

I think if Carpe Diem wins the Blue Grass he will be the 3rd choice. The only race he ever lostwas the Breeders Cup Juvenile he had a absolute terrible trip. 3 wide around the 1st turn 6 wide around the far turn and got cut off. Then he still passed the majority of the field to finish 2nd.


I agree......if Carpe, Dort & AP all win their races, then Firing Line will be 4th choice & possibly the "wise guy" horse.

[SecretAgentMan]

Lukas has only 1 possible derby, & I don't see him.skipping this derby, so with Mr Z only having 14 points, he will need to place in the top 4.....he's been nothing but coming in the money earning $518,000, which before the point standings started, would have earned him a spot in Kentucky.

I like the point standings way better makes the trainer focus on racing his horse to win, rather than hold them.back like back in the day.

With Int Star being the favorite, & War Story looking to turn the tables on Int Star, it will make for an interesting race......

I can't figure out who's gonna win this race.....I know every other horse besides Int Star needs to win or place.......Mr Z can get in by placing on the top 4 if I'm not mistaken since he's already got 14 points.

Keen Ice is also in this race as well which will be a long shot.

Would like to see Mr Z pull a Charismatic, but I doubt we will. Lukas already has 4 derby winners while Baffert has 3 & Pletcher 1......Lukas once won 6 straight triple crown races. Has his time passed? I believe so, he doesn't get the 3 year old monsters he once did, Baffert & Pletcher receive them now.

Your guess is as good as mine, good luck.....

[Bennie]

Interested to see what the "blinkers-off" will do for Mr. Z. Little side note though is that horses who have "equipment changes" as 3 year olds don't win the Derby. Not to say he can't win Saturday. I just hope with the blinks off he doesn't have focus problems and make an extra wide turn at the top of the stretch and head for the parking lot.

[SecretAgentMan]

Interested to see what the "blinkers-off" will do for Mr. Z. Little side note though is that horses who have "equipment changes" as 3 year olds don't win the Derby. Not to say he can't win Saturday. I just hope with the blinks off he doesn't have focus problems and make an extra wide turn at the top of the stretch and head for the parking lot.


Mr Z has mental problems which I hope Lukas has corrected. I like this horse even tho I've scratched him off my derby list of horses......he's been in 1st place several times in his races & has hit a brick wall. Unless he pulls a Charismatic, he's not playable in Kentucky.

He looks like he wants to have a break out race, we shall see.......I don't think Int Star will win the LA derby, not betting to win in this race. I was thinking of playing $200 to show on Mr Z, I figure we will see $3.60 to show.

[nads1420]

As of now, my derby horses are:

International Star

Upstart




seriously or you being sarcastic? Thats a pretty random top 2

[SecretAgentMan]

seriously or you being sarcastic? Thats a pretty random top 2



What's random about it? Those are the only 2 that I like as of now......I may add &/or drop a horse after watching the next 2 to 3 weeks of racing. Only 1 horse will win the Kentucky derby......

[SecretAgentMan]

$500 to show on Upstart.....only play in the race for me......

My opinion is that Upstart may win, he doesn't have to, but since he wasn't fully cranked up for his last race, Rich will have him ready to go.

I'm thinking the #7 Materiality will try to win it like Constitution last year.

[SecretAgentMan]

This race is too tough for me.....I hope Mubtaahij doesn't win, because he will throw a wrench in the KD for me, never knowing if a UAE horse will finally break thru & win the roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

$500 to show on Upstart.....only play in the race for me......

My opinion is that Upstart may win, he doesn't have to, but since he wasn't fully cranked up for his last race, Rich will have him ready to go.

I'm thinking the #7 Materiality will try to win it like Constitution last year.



Should have played a $500 exacta str 7-9.......Upstart looked good, but Materiality was much the best, & knowing Pletcher, he had him fully cranked.

[Grits]

Should have played a $500 exacta str 7-9.......Upstart looked good, but Materiality was much the best, & knowing Pletcher, he had him fully cranked.

You may wanna look at the replay....not everyone thinks Materiality was "much the best" in the stretch. According to David Grenig of DRF, Ortiz on Upstart wanted a claim of foul. It wasn't allowed to be heard.

[Saratoga_Mike]

To Grits' point, why was the race made official so quickly?

[SecretAgentMan]

You may wanna look at the replay....not everyone thinks Materiality was "much the best" in the stretch. According to David Grenig of DRF, Ortiz on Upstart wanted a claim of foul. It wasn't allowed to be heard.


Wow, really, gotta watch the replay.......I got up & walked into the kitchen to get something to eat.

I even called my cousin who is a die hard horse racing fan & he didn't mention it.

[SecretAgentMan]

To Grits' point, why was the race made official so quickly?



Hmm.....so take down Upstart for basically doing the same thing to a pathetic Knockout, & they didn't see fit for Pletchers Materiality.......they stewards want Pletcher in the derby with an undefeated horse as will Baffert with Dortmund.

[SecretAgentMan]

El Kabeir vs Frosted.......EK is in the derby, whether he runs as a workout or tries to win remains to be seen. EK looks like he's half the size of Dortmund but has as much heart & determination as Dort.

EK is a horse that brings the owners a check every time he runs.

Frosted was a length ahead of Upstart & KO in the FOY & stopped abruptly coming in 4th. Trainer says something definitely bothered him.

A good race to watch & see what happens going forward into Kentucky.

[BlueChip@DRF]

El Kabeir vs Frosted.......EK is in the derby, whether he runs as a workout or tries to win remains to be seen. EK looks like he's half the size of Dortmund but has as much heart & determination as Dort.

EK is a horse that brings the owners a check every time he runs.

Frosted was a length ahead of Upstart & KO in the FOY & stopped abruptly coming in 4th. Trainer says something definitely bothered him.

A good race to watch & see what happens going forward into Kentucky.


Was it the distance?

[SecretAgentMan]

Was it the distance?


McLaughlin stated they did a common surgery procedure on Frosted & corrected the problem......he also stated the GP track was deep & dry & wore down all the horses, so I'm assuming the surgery was note important than the deep track.

From.the sounds of it, the trainer wanted to get his horses out of the GP deep track & onto a better dirt track that the horse could handle better.

[SecretAgentMan]

Carpe Diem should win for fun......at least I hope he does. I don't see much competition for him at all......7 horses will go into the gate.......7 horses will go into the Wood as well, & only 6 into Santa Anita derby.



Dortmund gets the #1 post for the SA derby & Baffert wasn't pleased, but said Garcia will have to make it work.

The SA derby will have some early speed, but I think whatever path Dortmund & his jockey choose, they should win with ease.

[davew]

It is starting to look to me that there will be a few good horses that will not have enough points to run (so does that mean they are not good enough, or bad luck with hard competition in late preps?)

I am thinking of these, and would be surprised if over half started in Derby

Prospect Park
Bold Conquest
Mr. Z
Frosted
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Metaboss
Daredevil
Bolo


I am looking at some prop bets and am thinking of these couple

over 20.5 points needed to run at +115
will there be an in inquiry yes +400

[SecretAgentMan]

It is starting to look to me that there will be a few good horses that will not have enough points to run (so does that mean they are not good enough, or bad luck with hard competition in late preps?)

I am thinking of these, and would be surprised if over half started in Derby

Prospect Park
Bold Conquest
Mr. Z
Frosted
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Metaboss
Daredevil
Bolo


I am looking at some prop bets and am thinking of these couple

over 20.5 points needed to run at +115
will there be an in inquiry yes +400


I like Bold Conquest, Prospect Park, Frosted & Bolo on your list to possibly make the derby. Mr Z is a piece of crap, not going anywhere.

[SecretAgentMan]

Dortmund out of the #1 post will be very interesting......either he goes to the front right away or possibly gets pinched back on the first turn if he's not out if the gate fast.

IMO, if Dortmund & Pharaoh don't learn to rate in their next race, they will be in big trouble come derby day.

Dortmund wins the SA derby......Bolo for 2nd......kind of tough to put a horse for 2nd in this race because the others will be running for 2nd.

[SecretAgentMan]

Carpet Diem & Dortmund ran exactly how I thought they would.......nice wins by both of them.

I thought El Kabeir would give Frosted a run for the money.......either way, good win for Frosted.

Dubai Sky is off the derby trail.......another horse I didn't like at all in the derby & now gets scratched.

[SecretAgentMan]

International Star......(just keeps winning, & will be good odds on derby day.....also love how he closes)

Upstart.....(keep watching the Florida derby & trying to see if he can get better, the track was deep & dull at GP all year & he's done well over it)

Frosted.....(like how he closed in the Wood, & yes, I know he didn't beat much, but as long as you beat who they put in the gate next to you, that's all that matters.......the throat surgery seems to have helped him alot)

Mubtaahij......(can't figure this horse out yet, will watch him & the other 3 I like during derby week at Churchill)


Everyone else I'm throwing out, don't like them......we still have the Ark derby to run, & unless someone besides AP runs really good, don't care for that race either.......AP won't be winning the KD.

[SecretAgentMan]

Frosted received a nice beyer of 103.......

[nads1420]

is there anywhere to get/purchase updated derby contender pps?

[SecretAgentMan]

is there anywhere to get/purchase updated derby contender pps?



Go to Kentucky Derby.com & click on each horse & then download the PP's for each horse individually......that's the only way to do it now & they're all updated.

[nads1420]

Go to Kentucky Derby.com & click on each horse & then download the PP's for each horse individually......that's the only way to do it now & they're all updated.

thank you

[SecretAgentMan]

American Pharaoh will run with 6 other horses.......AP should win easily, & make himself the KD favorite.

I'm looking for Bold Conquest to run a big race & catch 2nd or 3rd.......

Lukas has lost his marbles, as Mr Z is running back in 2 weeks hoping for Lukas to have a derby horse. Will he pull a Charismatic? Lmao.....I highly doubt it! Maybe he catches 3rd place, but knowing you will need like 40 points, I hope Mr Z doesn't place......Lukas needs to stop abusing this horse. Put him in a mile race for goodness sakes!

MadefromLucky is another horse that will be battling Bold Conquest for points as well.

Won't be betting this last big prep race, just looking for Bold C & MadeforLucky to make a solid run towards AP......would live to see one of those put a good fight vs AP down the stretch, but like Dortmund, we will see a wire to wire job.

[ReplayRandall]

Something strange going on at Bovada as far as Derby Futures are concerned. Action is still being accepted on all the logical contenders, AP, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, et al.....However, wagering has been "suspended" on International Star. Did I miss something?

[SecretAgentMan]

Something strange going on at Bovada as far as Derby Futures are concerned. Action is still being accepted on all the logical contenders, AP, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, et al.....However, wagering has been "suspended" on International Star. Did I miss something?



I don't think you missed anything, I haven't heard or seen anything on International Star.......Bovada tends to do wacky stuff like that.

[SecretAgentMan]

1) International Star (we basically know what he's able to do, just don't know if he's fast enough to stay close with the big boys)

2) Frosted (like how this one is shaping up, hopefully his trainer figured out what was wrong, & I'm also hoping he can run well outside of NY, will keep a close eye on his workouts at Churchill)

3) Firing Line (I think he's better than Dortmund going into the derby.......he broke the Sunland track record at 1 1/8 mile

4) Danzig Moon (superfecta long shot) (closed well in the Bluegrass chasing Carpe Diem, should close for a piece of the pie)

5) Dortmund (I feel confident in saying he won't win the derby, but I do think he will be 1st or 2nd at the top of the stretch turning for home, might stick around for the super, pentafecta)

6) Mubtaahij (dont know what to make of these UAE derby horses, tgey throw a wrench in my capping.....i do know he had the perfect trip in the UAE derby sitting behind 2 horses battling for the lead turning for home.....will watch him closely at Churchill......he was heavily bet fro 30-1 to a closing line of 8-1 in Pool 4......I guess some shiek/oil tycoon went nuts at the betting window)

Taking Upstart off my list, although I know he received the 2nd best beyer so far this year, he just can't put 2 big races back to back.......still trying to figure out if he's gonna close for the triple/super.


I will be watching Bold Conquest & MadefromLucky closely in the Ark derby to see if they can give AP a race.......we all know what AP is capable of, he should win easily. I don't like Far Right much at all, way too slow of times in his wins.

The Lexington won't provide us with any derby horses that I know of........3 more weeks until post draw.

[BlueChip@DRF]

1) International Star (we basically know what he's able to do, just don't know if he's fast enough to stay close with the big boys)

2) Frosted (like how this one is shaping up, hopefully his trainer figured out what was wrong, & I'm also hoping he can run well outside of NY, will keep a close eye on his workouts at Churchill)

3) Firing Line (I think he's better than Dortmund going into the derby.......he broke the Sunland track record at 1 1/8 mile

4) Danzig Moon (superfecta long shot) (closed well in the Bluegrass chasing Carpe Diem, should close for a piece of the pie)

5) Dortmund (I feel confident in saying he won't win the derby, but I do think he will be 1st or 2nd at the top of the stretch turning for home, might stick around for the super, pentafecta)

6) Mubtaahij (dont know what to make of these UAE derby horses, tgey throw a wrench in my capping.....i do know he had the perfect trip in the UAE derby sitting behind 2 horses battling for the lead turning for home.....will watch him closely at Churchill......he was heavily bet fro 30-1 to a closing line of 8-1 in Pool 4......I guess some shiek/oil tycoon went nuts at the betting window)

Taking Upstart off my list, although I know he received the 2nd best beyer so far this year, he just can't put 2 big races back to back.......still trying to figure out if he's gonna close for the triple/super.


I will be watching Bold Conquest & MadefromLucky closely in the Ark derby to see if they can give AP a race.......we all know what AP is capable of, he should win easily. I don't like Far Right much at all, way too slow of times in his wins.

The Lexington won't provide us with any derby horses that I know of........3 more weeks until post draw.

Isn't that track record broken every year by some 3YO aiming for the Derby? ;)


Cool. Now I know who to pick for the top spot. :D
Watch me do the super whammy on him now and right back in my face. :mad:

[nads1420]

4) Danzig Moon (superfecta long shot) (closed well in the Bluegrass chasing Carpe Diem, should close for a piece of the pie)



that is a great catch he did run the stretch stride for stride with Carpe Diem... def a nice clunk up candidate... i didnt even think of that but your right.

watch him here he is the 8 horse https://youtu.be/Etz5Xm9HEgk?t=1m8s

[Stoleitbreezing]

1) International Star (we basically know what he's able to do, just don't know if he's fast enough to stay close with the big boys)

2) Frosted (like how this one is shaping up, hopefully his trainer figured out what was wrong, & I'm also hoping he can run well outside of NY, will keep a close eye on his workouts at Churchill)

3) Firing Line (I think he's better than Dortmund going into the derby.......he broke the Sunland track record at 1 1/8 mile

4) Danzig Moon (superfecta long shot) (closed well in the Bluegrass chasing Carpe Diem, should close for a piece of the pie)

5) Dortmund (I feel confident in saying he won't win the derby, but I do think he will be 1st or 2nd at the top of the stretch turning for home, might stick around for the super, pentafecta)

6) Mubtaahij (dont know what to make of these UAE derby horses, tgey throw a wrench in my capping.....i do know he had the perfect trip in the UAE derby sitting behind 2 horses battling for the lead turning for home.....will watch him closely at Churchill......he was heavily bet fro 30-1 to a closing line of 8-1 in Pool 4......I guess some shiek/oil tycoon went nuts at the betting window)

Taking Upstart off my list, although I know he received the 2nd best beyer so far this year, he just can't put 2 big races back to back.......still trying to figure out if he's gonna close for the triple/super.


I will be watching Bold Conquest & MadefromLucky closely in the Ark derby to see if they can give AP a race.......we all know what AP is capable of, he should win easily. I don't like Far Right much at all, way too slow of times in his wins.

The Lexington won't provide us with any derby horses that I know of........3 more weeks until post draw.

I plan on using IS and FROSTED in my derby plays as well. I like there running style and how they are coming into the derby. I will be looking closely at there works leading up to the derby to determine the amount and wager types.

Not sure what to make of firing line. He clearly has talent but I didn't like how he yielded that race to Dortmund at SA, then had to ship out of town for points. Usually its a bad sign when baffert sends his charge to NM as his 2nd and 3rd stringers only go there. Notable exception was that filly who crushed the Oaks field then won the KY Oaks. Might use him depending on his training and when I look closer at his pedigree for 10F.

The UAE derby horse I'll probably toss unless he trains lights out and starts to be one of those wise guy picks. History and the travel/quarantine are too many negatives for me. Not sure what to make of who he beat in UAE Derby.

Dortmund I have a feeling has some issues in the derby with his massive frame and getting bounced around. I have to take a stand and throw one of the chalks out of my tickets and I think its going to be him for this reason. Still capable of placing on his talent alone, but I'm not entirely convinced he's as unbeatable as others have said.

Upstart and Materiality didn't look good coming out of the last race. I have a feeling that Materiality doesn't have enough time to recover from that long stretch drive on a tiring surface, the lack of foundation and a similar running style to most of the field is a toss for me. Upstart seems to be heading the wrong direction and likely already peaked.

Ready for the derby works!

[SecretAgentMan]

Isn't that track record broken every year by some 3YO aiming for the Derby? ;)


Cool. Now I know who to pick for the top spot. :D
Watch me do the super whammy on him now and right back in my face. :mad:


Yes, Sunland is like Santa Anita, it tends to run fast, but winning by 14.5 lengths while breaking the track record is quite different. Also, Firing Line is the only horse that ran twice vs the undefeated Dortmund, & ended up losing by a head twice. Dortmund won't get an easy lead like he did in the SA derby next time out.

Good luck betting on Upstart if you do so.......he's a competitive horse that usually fires, but coming from that deep & dull GP track did him more bad than good.

[SecretAgentMan]

that is a great catch he did run the stretch stride for stride with Carpe Diem... def a nice clunk up candidate... i didnt even think of that but your right.

watch him here he is the 8 horse https://youtu.be/Etz5Xm9HEgk?t=1m8s


He will definitely be in my exotics........

[SecretAgentMan]

I plan on using IS and FROSTED in my derby plays as well. I like there running style and how they are coming into the derby. I will be looking closely at there works leading up to the derby to determine the amount and wager types.

Not sure what to make of firing line. He clearly has talent but I didn't like how he yielded that race to Dortmund at SA, then had to ship out of town for points. Usually its a bad sign when baffert sends his charge to NM as his 2nd and 3rd stringers only go there. Notable exception was that filly who crushed the Oaks field then won the KY Oaks. Might use him depending on his training and when I look closer at his pedigree for 10F.

The UAE derby horse I'll probably toss unless he trains lights out and starts to be one of those wise guy picks. History and the travel/quarantine are too many negatives for me. Not sure what to make of who he beat in UAE Derby.

Dortmund I have a feeling has some issues in the derby with his massive frame and getting bounced around. I have to take a stand and throw one of the chalks out of my tickets and I think its going to be him for this reason. Still capable of placing on his talent alone, but I'm not entirely convinced he's as unbeatable as others have said.

Upstart and Materiality didn't look good coming out of the last race. I have a feeling that Materiality doesn't have enough time to recover from that long stretch drive on a tiring surface, the lack of foundation and a similar running style to most of the field is a toss for me. Upstart seems to be heading the wrong direction and likely already peaked.

Ready for the derby works!


Good luck Stole, seems like we're on the same page on most of these horses.

I still want to see how Mubtaahij works out, & I'm hoping he turns out to be the wise guy horse, because I would like to throw him.out completely.

Do you see anything that has him.possibly coming in the super?

I know his pace figures are some of the biggest in his past 2 races, if not the biggest.......but like you stated, he's gotta travel, quarantine, etc......I know Mubtaahij is trained by one of the best over there.

I'm.ready for the derby workouts as well, can't start soon enough........

[nads1420]

I plan on using IS and FROSTED in my derby plays as well. I like there running style and how they are coming into the derby. I will be looking closely at there works leading up to the derby to determine the amount and wager types.

Not sure what to make of firing line. He clearly has talent but I didn't like how he yielded that race to Dortmund at SA, then had to ship out of town for points. Usually its a bad sign when baffert sends his charge to NM as his 2nd and 3rd stringers only go there. Notable exception was that filly who crushed the Oaks field then won the KY Oaks. Might use him depending on his training and when I look closer at his pedigree for 10F.

The UAE derby horse I'll probably toss unless he trains lights out and starts to be one of those wise guy picks. History and the travel/quarantine are too many negatives for me. Not sure what to make of who he beat in UAE Derby.

Dortmund I have a feeling has some issues in the derby with his massive frame and getting bounced around. I have to take a stand and throw one of the chalks out of my tickets and I think its going to be him for this reason. Still capable of placing on his talent alone, but I'm not entirely convinced he's as unbeatable as others have said.

Upstart and Materiality didn't look good coming out of the last race. I have a feeling that Materiality doesn't have enough time to recover from that long stretch drive on a tiring surface, the lack of foundation and a similar running style to most of the field is a toss for me. Upstart seems to be heading the wrong direction and likely already peaked.

Ready for the derby works!


are you concerned that International Star had to work to catch Stanford while Materiality demolished Stanford 2 races back?

[nads1420]

what do you guys like to see in the derby workouts and arent they kind of over hyped? I could be wrong but wasnt there work out news that California Chrome looked tired or something last year before he blew the doors off the field.

[BlueChip@DRF]

what do you guys like to see in the derby workouts and arent they kind of over hyped? I could be wrong but wasnt there work out news that California Chrome looked tired or something last year before he blew the doors off the field.

You tell us:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMThhGAd6Mc

[SecretAgentMan]

what do you guys like to see in the derby workouts and arent they kind of over hyped? I could be wrong but wasnt there work out news that California Chrome looked tired or something last year before he blew the doors off the field.


Chromes workouts were decent......when leading up to the derby, you don't want a horse going too fast, or too slow either.

I mean, workouts should be used as a tool.....I don't solely rely on them to pick a derby horse.

Fusaichi Pegasus worked 6f in 1:14 back to back......to me that's kind of slow, but the thing is, did it satisfy the trainer & how did he look working out in that slow time. The trainer knows best on how their derby horse works.

Orb worked great over Churchill, as did Animal Kingdom.......AK was 30-1 in the ML, but his workouts gave confidence to his backers chopping his odds down to 20-1 by post time.

There's a bunch of other stuff like is the horse eating right, etc......

There's no guarantees if a horse works out the best of any other that he does well.......

Point Given worked 5f in :58 in his last work before the derby, Congaree 5f in :58, those are fast workouts & they looked good doing them.......Congatee came in 3rd & Point Given 5th by 11 lengths to Monarchos that almost broke the KD track record & never won another race again.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Chromes workouts were decent......when leading up to the derby, you don't want a horse going too fast, or too slow either.

I mean, workouts should be used as a tool.....I don't solely rely on them to pick a derby horse.

Fusaichi Pegasus worked 6f in 1:14 back to back......to me that's kind of slow, but the thing is, did it satisfy the trainer & how did he look working out in that slow time. The trainer knows best on how their derby horse works.

Orb worked great over Churchill, as did Animal Kingdom.......AK was 30-1 in the ML, but his workouts gave confidence to his backers chopping his odds down to 20-1 by post time.

There's a bunch of other stuff like is the horse eating right, etc......

There's no guarantees if a horse works out the best of any other that he does well.......

Point Given worked 5f in :58 in his last work before the derby, Congaree 5f in :58, those are fast workouts & they looked good doing them.......Congatee came in 3rd & Point Given 5th by 11 lengths to Monarchos that almost broke the KD track record & never won another race again.

Or Hard Spun with that super bullet before the race.

[SecretAgentMan]

Or Hard Spun with that super bullet before the race.



Yeah, 5f in :57.........now that's fast. He had great tactical speed & tried to wired the field but Street Sense ran him down.

[Stoleitbreezing]

are you concerned that International Star had to work to catch Stanford while Materiality demolished Stanford 2 races back?

Not at all concerned. IS ran down Stanford after he set a very casual tempo for 9F going 48 to the half. The GP Stanford is not at all who IS faced in LA. Slow lumbering horses who many believe International Star is do not possess the quick turn of foot he's shown when asked. I have no idea why he's not being considered one of the favorites.

[BlueChip@DRF]

ALL TC Nominations PPS updated to April 4th, 2015

LINK (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/TC15noms.pdf)

[ArlJim78]

ALL TC Nominations PPS updated to April 4th, 2015

LINK (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/TC15noms.pdf)
thanks for the link!

[SecretAgentMan]

ALL TC Nominations PPS updated to April 4th, 2015

LINK (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/TC15noms.pdf)



Thanks for the link Blue. Do you have any link providing just the top 30 point standing leaders?

I believe next week brisnet may bring out the PP's of the top 25 to 30 since we will basically know who's running in the KD.

I don't know why brisnet has every nominated horse in their PP's this late in the game.

If anyone has bought DRF's PP's for the top 30 points leaders, please post a link, thanks in advance!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Thanks for the link Blue. Do you have any link providing just the top 30 point standing leaders?

I believe next week brisnet may bring out the PP's of the top 25 to 30 since we will basically know who's running in the KD.

I don't know why brisnet has every nominated horse in their PP's this late in the game.

If anyone has bought DRF's PP's for the top 30 points leaders, please post a link, thanks in advance!

I think there is a list, but not PPs for Top-30.

[SecretAgentMan]

Pharaoh (+515)

Carpe Diem (+715)

Dortmund (+465)

Upstart (+2050)

Mubtaahij (+1015)

Materiality (+1615)

Bolo (+4050)

Int Star (+2050)

Frosted (+1615)

Firing Line (+2050)

Far Right (+3550)

El Kabeir (+2250)

ItsKnockOut (+6550)

War Story (+4050)

Stanford (+4250)

Mr Z (+8550)

OchoOcho (+3550)

Danzig Moon (+3550)

One Lucky Dane (+4050)

Tencendur (+6050)

MadeforLucky (+3050)

Bold Conquest (+8050)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Thanks for the link Blue. Do you have any link providing just the top 30 point standing leaders?

I believe next week brisnet may bring out the PP's of the top 25 to 30 since we will basically know who's running in the KD.

I don't know why brisnet has every nominated horse in their PP's this late in the game.

If anyone has bought DRF's PP's for the top 30 points leaders, please post a link, thanks in advance!

Why, when it is free (http://www.drf.com/road)?

[SecretAgentMan]

Why, when it is free (http://www.drf.com/road)?



Is there past performances on there? I've been on that page several times before & haven't seen any......

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Is there past performances on there? I've been on that page several times before & haven't seen any......

Sorry, thought part of your query was looking just for a top 30 list of points standings.

[SecretAgentMan]

American Pharaoh will be the fav after that impressive performance in the Ark derby.......how about Espinoza with Chrome last year & now with Pharaoh, unreal!

Bold Conquest & MadefromLucky didn't run a lick.......I still can't play Pharaoh in the KD. Maybe Pharaoh wins the triple crown? If so, would be nice to see it.......

[SecretAgentMan]

Upstart missed a workout today because of a fever......that doesn't bode well for a derby horse. Not good to miss any time with 3 weeks remaining for the derby.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Upstart missed a workout today because of a fever......that doesn't bode well for a derby horse. Not good to miss any time with 3 weeks remaining for the derby.

Upstart is done now missing time due to illness. AP's performance gave me everything I need to know about him and the derby. I know which favorite I can toss (Dortmund) as AP will be included in my tris and exacta. Amazing performance by him. Everything you wanted to see before the Derby. Rate off the pace? Check. Run fast? Check. Eyeball test and willingness to get 10F? Check!

[SecretAgentMan]

Upstart is done now missing time due to illness. AP's performance gave me everything I need to know about him and the derby. I know which favorite I can toss (Dortmund) as AP will be included in my tris and exacta. Amazing performance by him. Everything you wanted to see before the Derby. Rate off the pace? Check. Run fast? Check. Eyeball test and willingness to get 10F? Check!


I still think Firing Line is better than Dortmund even tho Dortmund beat him twice by a head........AP looked freakishly impressive, but he hasn't beaten anyone worth mentioning, like most horses so far this year.

I still want to watch these horses run over Churchill......I have 2 horses I'm looking at for the derby to put on top, but gotta hope they stay healthy & on schedule.

Too bad for Upstart, although I've taken him.off my list of derby horses, will be sad to see him not run because he will take some money as well if he runs.

I'm thinking 3 to 4 horses will defect......leaving open MadefromLucky, Frammento, Keen Ice & Bold Conquest to slip right in........

Pharaoh & Dortmund will take a ton of money on derby day, add in Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Materiality........the longshots will pay HUGE & so will the exotics if these favs are out of the money.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I still think Firing Line is better than Dortmund even tho Dortmund beat him twice by a head........AP looked freakishly impressive, but he hasn't beaten anyone worth mentioning, like most horses so far this year.

I still want to watch these horses run over Churchill......I have 2 horses I'm looking at for the derby to put on top, but gotta hope they stay healthy & on schedule.

Too bad for Upstart, although I've taken him.off my list of derby horses, will be sad to see him not run because he will take some money as well if he runs.

I'm thinking 3 to 4 horses will defect......leaving open MadefromLucky, Frammento, Keen Ice & Bold Conquest to slip right in........

Pharaoh & Dortmund will take a ton of money on derby day, add in Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Materiality........the longshots will pay HUGE & so will the exotics if these favs are out of the money.

How they train leading up to the Derby will be key. I'm still going to try to beat AP in the Derby. However, what I saw yesterday tells me I'd be a fool leaving him out of my tickets completely. I plan on boxing International Star, Frosted, and AP. Betting the first two to win based on odds and then probably keying them on top with AP 2nd on some other tickets.

[burnsy]

The field is deep this year, chalk was winning in virtually every region going as far as Dubai. Each region was thin on talent but there are clearly defined "contenders" shipping to CD at the top of the class. This has not been a case of horses "taking turns" winning or slow times. There are 6 to 9 horses that could be anything because they have been running well at the right time. The next 8 weeks will sort out the rest.

1. American Pharaoh

2. Dortmund

3. Carpe Diem

4. International Star

5. Mubtaahij

6. Materiality

7. Upstart

8. Frosted

9. Firing Line

The first 3 are obvious low odds horses, 4-7 are horses that look really good at a decent price, 8 and 9 are on the fringe with a chance. Without knowing the weather or post positions International Star, Mubtaahij, Materiality and Upstart are horses I will be looking at for some value. I like the way International Star runs and the fact that Mubtaahij relaxed and got 1 3/16, eased up, people like that don't show up to sniff the roses. I like Materiality and Upstart because I think the Florida form was better than people think and that race was hard fought. Winning for fun at 1-9 is not all its cracked up to be going into a bigger race unless one is proven to be that much better. Its deep right now until some step forward but if the weather is good I don't think there will be someone from left field winning this year. This top 9 are a pretty established group. The middle of the group will offer some good price (value) shopping and could very well produce the winner or at least second money. That's how I'll approach it, many of these horses have won as easy as it can be done, not just yesterday, watch the replays, that horse will be over bet because it happened last and winning like that is not always a good thing and a few of these have been winning like that. I also think the "talent" was spread around thin and is coming together just in time for the derby with a field of actual "contenders"......this will be "test time". For some of these its all a walk in the park until May 2nd.

[boys at tosconova]

looks like really bad news for horses 11-20..not only do you not get proper long shot win odds anymore in the derby, it's going to be pretty hard using most of these as well, and feeling confident about finishing at least 2nd.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

[QUOTE=boys at tosconova]looks like really bad news for horses 11-20..not only do you not get proper long shot win odds anymore in the derby, it's going to be pretty hard using most of these as well, and feeling confident about finishing at least 2nd.[/QUOTE

100% disagree.

[Secondbest]

You never know.Remember last year when Commanding curve clunked up for second At 50-1.It could easily happen again.

[BlueChip@DRF]

You never know.Remember last year when Commanding curve clunked up for second At 50-1.It could easily happen again.


But not at those odds or similar.

[SecretAgentMan]

You never know.Remember last year when Commanding curve clunked up for second At 50-1.It could easily happen again.



He went off at 37-1, even with a clear cut favorite taking money Cali Chrome......seems that after Giacomo & Mine that Bird won, public has been all over the longshots.

This year may be a bit different tho......we have Bafferts 2 horses that will be overwhelming favorites & taking a lot of money.......Carpe Diem will be taking money as well. The rest will be higher odds than they should be because of the favs taking a ton of money, but I don't know if we will see 70-1 shots again, although this year there are several horses that should be at least 50-1 in the derby.

Mr Z & OchoOcho should be at least 50-1.......possibly 60-1.......Far Right since he's a deep closer, will probably be 30-1.......Danzig Moon about 40-1......ItsKnockout should be 100-1 (watch him come clunking into the triple, he's a piece of crap that got lucky to get in from a DQ thanks to the stewards)

Now the waiting game, hopefully all the horses stay healthy.......Upstart is battling a slight fever & was glad to read the trainer Violette caught it before trying to work him out, could have made the horse a lot worse.

Violette stated the horse looks happy, he's eating alright as of now.

[burnsy]

[/QUOTE

100% disagree.


I 100% agree with your disagreement....hell, they won't be 50-1 but some of the horses I listed will be over 10-1, with credentials to win. There may only be a few good horses in there but no one really knows which ones they are. The ones that are supposed to be winning have won almost all the preps. Every region has a clear cut "top horse." I feel its sort of open to a pretty deep field. Of course, it may not be in hindsight, but it shaped up this way, this year.

[f2tornado]

There are win odds and there are exacta odds. The exacta payoffs have been very solid despite the favorite winning last two years.

[SecretAgentMan]

AP received a 105 beyer?? That's lower than I thought he would receive......I was thinking a 112. Hmm......Materiality a 110 & Upstart a 108......I guess beyer knows his numbers.

[SecretAgentMan]

There are win odds and there are exacta odds. The exacta payoffs have been very solid despite the favorite winning last two years.



Get ready for astronomical payouts this year if these favs are out of the top 3.......Chrome at 5-2 & CC at 37-1 came back $340, now that's fat for a fav on top, but tgats what happens in a 19 horse field.

[boys at tosconova]

i'm less optimistic than i've ever been in the KD about a second group longshot finishing second.

as for comand curve. the horse did have some angles lats year, and he was trending up.

looking at the field..i guess a few might merit a second look.,,but it's dicey.

i will give bolo a second look. ...but not many else..mr z, danzig and a couple others are cross outs

[OCF]

The field is deep this year, chalk was winning in virtually every region going as far as Dubai. Each region was thin on talent but there are clearly defined "contenders" shipping to CD at the top of the class. This has not been a case of horses "taking turns" winning or slow times. There are 6 to 9 horses that could be anything because they have been running well at the right time. The next 8 weeks will sort out the rest.

1. American Pharaoh

2. Dortmund

3. Carpe Diem

4. International Star

5. Mubtaahij

6. Materiality

7. Upstart

8. Frosted

9. Firing Line

My list is very similar, and the problem I'm having living with it is that 8 of the 9 won their last prep. That seems OK for picking the winner and maybe the exacta, but not for picking the tri and super.

(Yes, I know it's happened that the first three or four finishers all won their last preps, but it's rare.)

On the other hand, as you say it's been a chalky prep season and the winners have for the most part avoided facing each other.

So maybe the list is exactly as should be, but it's still messing with me.

[nads1420]

Mubtaahij is such a wild card in all of this...

[SecretAgentMan]

Mubtaahij is such a wild card in all of this...


I agree......but I will not put him on top on any of my tickets. I will put him underneath in my exotocs.

[SecretAgentMan]

i'm less optimistic than i've ever been in the KD about a second group longshot finishing second.

as for comand curve. the horse did have some angles lats year, and he was trending up.

looking at the field..i guess a few might merit a second look.,,but it's dicey.

i will give bolo a second look. ...but not many else..mr z, danzig and a couple others are cross outs



I like Danzig Moon in my exotics.......Mr Z will get no love from me.......neither will Bolo.

I don't think it matters what post position the clunkers get because they will be coming from way back.......

[nads1420]

im cooling on Frosted the Wood has put out some duds... very weak field he beat.. and i gotta start crossing horses off my list. i like too many of them... this never happens for me

[SecretAgentMan]

im cooling on Frosted the Wood has put out some duds... very weak field he beat.. and i gotta start crossing horses off my list. i like too many of them... this never happens for me



You will see Pharaoh get super hyped up in the media next 3 weeks........& yes, the Wood has been a terrible prep race for horses in the KD.

[PaceMasterT]

im cooling on Frosted the Wood has put out some duds... very weak field he beat.. and i gotta start crossing horses off my list. i like too many of them... this never happens for me

One of the toughest things for me to get over is that in horse racing an inverse of a positive is not necessarily a negative. I.E. - A horse beating or being competitive against a tough field (key race) is a huge positive but a horse mopping up on a weak field is not a negative or something that should be held against him/her. Frosted did what he was supposed to do by beating a weak field convincingly. Now, it being a weak field makes it harder to analyze where Frosted fits in the scheme of things and the same thing could probably be said about almost every contender coming into this race off a prep win.

[nads1420]

One of the toughest things for me to get over is that in horse racing an inverse of a positive is not necessarily a negative. I.E. - A horse beating or being competitive against a tough field (key race) is a huge positive but a horse mopping up on a weak field is not a negative or something that should be held against him/her. Frosted did what he was supposed to do by beating a weak field convincingly. Now, it being a weak field makes it harder to analyze where Frosted fits in the scheme of things and the same thing could probably be said about almost every contender coming into this race off a prep win.


i dont know if it was 'convincing' 2 lengths over Tencendur, a horse that will probably be 40-1 and a horse American Pharoah or Dortmund would of put 10 lengths on

[SecretAgentMan]

i dont know if it was 'convincing' 2 lengths over Tencendur, a horse that will probably be 40-1 and a horse American Pharoah or Dortmund would of put 10 lengths on



So unless a horse wins convincingly by 10 or more lengths, he's not considered a threat? Do you remember Giacomo?

Most of these horses haven't raced against toughr competition......I wouldn't want my horse to win Bellamy Road style before the derby, not good.

[f2tornado]

i dont know if it was 'convincing' 2 lengths over Tencendur, a horse that will probably be 40-1 and a horse American Pharoah or Dortmund would of put 10 lengths on

Yes, if you start with physical times. I do know Frosted was coming home in the Wood far faster than most other horses in any prep this season. Frosted ran a final 3/8th in approximately 36 2/5 after a wide trip versus American Pharoah in 37 4/5 after a perfect trip. Nutshell is Frosted's Wood is better on paper than it might have looked to the eye. Also, it was first race after a surgical procedure so the horse could get better. I'm not dismissing.

[Stoleitbreezing]

i dont know if it was 'convincing' 2 lengths over Tencendur, a horse that will probably be 40-1 and a horse American Pharoah or Dortmund would of put 10 lengths on

The margin of victory was only 2 lengths, but we can't forget how slow the pace was in the wood. It was a great performance by frosted with the wide trip and the slow pace. Good contender for the Roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

Yes, if you start with physical times. I do know Frosted was coming home in the Wood far faster than most other horses in any prep this season. Frosted ran a final 3/8th in approximately 36 2/5 after a wide trip versus American Pharoah in 37 4/5 after a perfect trip. Nutshell is Frosted's Wood is better on paper than it might have looked to the eye. Also, it was first race after a surgical procedure so the horse could get better. I'm not dismissing.


Good anysis on Frosted.......

[nads1420]

So unless a horse wins convincingly by 10 or more lengths, he's not considered a threat? Do you remember Giacomo?

Most of these horses haven't raced against toughr competition......I wouldn't want my horse to win Bellamy Road style before the derby, not good.


yeah thats true, im kinda playing devils advocate.. iv never liked so many horses before i have no idea how to file that down.. kinda looking for someone to talk me out of the horses i like

Contenders
Firing Line
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem

Clunkers
Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Frammento
Madefromlucky
Far Right

Complete Wild Cards That I Like But Have No Idea How To Play
Mubtaahij
International Star
Materiality



so basically i like more then half the field... please someone tell me im off my rocker with considering betting some of these horses... as of now im thinking of putting a solid win bet on Firing Line and a bunch of exotics. Really wish American Pharoah didnt look so damn good Saturday. I think he's better then Dortmund.... but really what the hell do i know its a bunch of animals running in a circle

[BlueChip@DRF]

yeah thats true, im kinda playing devils advocate.. iv never liked so many horses before i have no idea how to file that down.. kinda looking for someone to talk me out of the horses i like

Contenders
Firing Line
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem

Clunkers
Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Frammento
Madefromlucky
Far Right

Complete Wild Cards That I Like But Have No Idea How To Play
Mubtaahij
International Star
Materiality



so basically i like more then half the field... please someone tell me im off my rocker with considering betting some of these horses... as of now im thinking of putting a solid win bet on Firing Line and a bunch of exotics. Really wish American Pharoah didnt look so damn good Saturday. I think he's better then Dortmund.... but really what the hell do i know its a bunch of animals running in a circle


Bet the X-Factor and your lucky number.
After the race, the X-Factor question will be answered, and your lucky number may or may not be lucky. :)

[boys at tosconova]

yeah thats true, im kinda playing devils advocate.. iv never liked so many horses before i have no idea how to file that down.. kinda looking for someone to talk me out of the horses i like

Contenders
Firing Line
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem

Clunkers
Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Frammento
Madefromlucky
Far Right

Complete Wild Cards That I Like But Have No Idea How To Play
Mubtaahij
International Star
Materiality



so basically i like more then half the field... please someone tell me im off my rocker with considering betting some of these horses... as of now im thinking of putting a solid win bet on Firing Line and a bunch of exotics. Really wish American Pharoah didnt look so damn good Saturday. I think he's better then Dortmund.... but really what the hell do i know its a bunch of animals running in a circle

put a big X through the clunker group and you've made your first revision.

[nads1420]

Bet the X-Factor and your lucky number.
After the race, the X-Factor question will be answered, and your lucky number may or may not be lucky. :)


can you simplify that "x factor" for me?

[nads1420]

put a big X through the clunker group and you've made your first revision.


someone has to be the 'commanding curve', 'went the day well' or the 'imawilsandcrazyguy' and land in the exotics

[SecretAgentMan]

yeah thats true, im kinda playing devils advocate.. iv never liked so many horses before i have no idea how to file that down.. kinda looking for someone to talk me out of the horses i like

Contenders
Firing Line
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem

Clunkers
Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Frammento
Madefromlucky
Far Right

Complete Wild Cards That I Like But Have No Idea How To Play
Mubtaahij
International Star
Materiality



so basically i like more then half the field... please someone tell me im off my rocker with considering betting some of these horses... as of now im thinking of putting a solid win bet on Firing Line and a bunch of exotics. Really wish American Pharoah didnt look so damn good Saturday. I think he's better then Dortmund.... but really what the hell do i know its a bunch of animals running in a circle


You should shave your contenders down to 3 horses, your clunkers look promising, but I don't think Frammento is in yet, he needs 4 defections. MadefromLucky will definitely get in, but I don't like him much.

The X factor IMO is just Mubtaahij......Materiality is a good horse & will be a better horse in the fall, but right now he doesn't have enough foundation.

We all know what Int Star is capable of, we've seen it, so he's not an X factor at all for me.......only thing is, he was whipped 25 times down the stretch just to get up to win.......is that good or bad?

Well, he responded positively when whipped & ran the race he needed to get the win, so how is that a bad thing? Some horses respond positively to the whip while others don't.

We will need to wait for the post position draw to see where all these horses start from.......what if AP or Dortmund get post #1? That's an automatic toss for me........

A horse like Int Star, Keen Ice or Far Right could start from the #1 post & IMO, it wouldn't hurt them since they close from far back.

AP is arriving to Churchill today......from what I read, Baffert will only work him out once before the KD.......I guess the Ark derby took something out of him, then again, he's only getting 21 days of rest.

[BlueChip@DRF]

can you simplify that "x factor" for me?

The horse that is an unknown quantity. You want to leave him out but the back of your mind keeps nagging you about it.

[SecretAgentMan]

someone has to be the 'commanding curve', 'went the day well' or the 'imawilsandcrazyguy' and land in the exotics



What if Dortmund pulls a Bodemeister & hangs on for 2nd, or maybe Firing Line pulls a Bode......there is a lot of fast horses this year, lots of speed......some people don't see a quick half, but I do.......a possible speed meltdown turning for home, & I wouldn't want to have my horse stalking the pace & in the middle of that pack when they will be turning for home.

If there's a complete meltdown, someone will close like a rocket.

[BlueChip@DRF]

someone has to be the 'commanding curve', 'went the day well' or the 'imawilsandcrazyguy' and land in the exotics

You aren't going to get the same payoffs as last time. But if you want the 4th place key to the super, just put my top pick in there. Went The Day Well, Shackleford, Don't Get Mad, Medaglia d'Oro to name a few.

[SecretAgentMan]

The horse that is an unknown quantity. You want to leave him out but the back of your mind keeps nagging you about it.



Yeah, Mubtaahij is the only X factor I see......

[BlueChip@DRF]

What if Dortmund pulls a Bodemeister & hangs on for 2nd, or maybe Firing Line pulls a Bode......there is a lot of fast horses this year, lots of speed......some people don't see a quick half, but I do.......a possible speed meltdown turning for home, & I wouldn't want to have my horse stalking the pace & in the middle of that pack when they will be turning for home.

If there's a complete meltdown, someone will close like a rocket.

I think you need a Trinniberg or Balto Star type in the race.

[SecretAgentMan]

:5: I think you need a Trinniberg or Balto Star type in the race.



Zayat knows that Mr Z won't win the KD, so maybe they send him out as a rabbit to set up AP?

IMO, there is some serious speed in this race......

[nads1420]

You should shave your contenders down to 3 horses, your clunkers look promising, but I don't think Frammento is in yet, he needs 4 defections. MadefromLucky will definitely get in, but I don't like him much.

The X factor IMO is just Mubtaahij......Materiality is a good horse & will be a better horse in the fall, but right now he doesn't have enough foundation.

We all know what Int Star is capable of, we've seen it, so he's not an X factor at all for me.......only thing is, he was whipped 25 times down the stretch just to get up to win.......is that good or bad?

Well, he responded positively when whipped & ran the race he needed to get the win, so how is that a bad thing? Some horses respond positively to the whip while others don't.

We will need to wait for the post position draw to see where all these horses start from.......what if AP or Dortmund get post #1? That's an automatic toss for me........

A horse like Int Star, Keen Ice or Far Right could start from the #1 post & IMO, it wouldn't hurt them since they close from far back.

AP is arriving to Churchill today......from what I read, Baffert will only work him out once before the KD.......I guess the Ark derby took something out of him, then again, he's only getting 21 days of rest.

Talking about responding to the whip check out Mubtaahij respond to the whip... my lord does he take off but again how average are those horses he leaving in the dust???

https://youtu.be/677rgOnAbOw?t=1m43s

[Stoleitbreezing]

Mr. Z doesn't have that great a speed others in the field have. My guess is he'll do what he did in his last two races which is take back early and save group hoping to have something left in the drive. My guess is he runs for about 6F and backs up.

[SecretAgentMan]

Who cones in 2nd? Picking the horse to come in 2nd is more difficult than picking the winner IMO........

[nads1420]

Who cones in 2nd? Picking the horse to come in 2nd is more difficult than picking the winner IMO........

yeah your right.. seems like the more unlikely horse finishes 2nd rather then 3rd.. weird

[BlueChip@DRF]

Talking about responding to the whip check out Mubtaahij respond to the whip... my lord does he take off but again how average are those horses he leaving in the dust???

https://youtu.be/677rgOnAbOw?t=1m43s

Did you see how American Pharoah responded to not being whipped at the top of the lane?

[SecretAgentMan]

Did you see how American Pharoah responded to not being whipped at the top of the lane?



Who's your one & only top play for the derby Chip?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Who's your one & only top play for the derby Chip?

From 1992 to Present:
Giacomo is the only winner who had won nothing else other than his maiden.
The rest of the winners have at least 2 wins on their record before running in the Derby.

Derby winners with 2 wins (including maiden) before The Derby: Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Grindstone

Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, Keen Ice, Frammento, Bold Conquest, The Truth Or Else,and Task Force Glory will attempt the same feat as Giacomo.


**********************

It WAS going to be Danzig Moon.
Now looking at the X-Factor Mubtaahij, Frosted and Madefromlucky (if he gets in).

I'm thinking American Pharaoh might break the Storm Cat curse.

[SecretAgentMan]

From 1992 to Present:
Giacomo is the only winner who had won nothing else other than his maiden.
The rest of the winners have at least 2 wins on their record before running in the Derby.

Derby winners with 2 wins (including maiden) before The Derby: Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Grindstone

Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, Keen Ice, Frammento, Bold Conquest, The Truth Or Else,and Task Force Glory will attempt the same feat as Giacomo.


**********************

It WAS going to be Danzig Moon.
Now looking at the X-Factor Mubtaahij, Frosted and Madefromlucky (if he gets in).

I'm thinking American Pharaoh might break the Storm Cat curse.


My top horse is Frosted..........

I'm having trouble figuring out who will come in 2nd........I'm thinking a long shot like Frammento, or Far Right.......maybe Danzig Moon.

We still need to wait on the post draw......its like waiting to go to the dentist, its a painful wait.

[boys at tosconova]

My top horse is Frosted..........

I'm having trouble figuring out who will come in 2nd........I'm thinking a long shot like Frammento, or Far Right.......maybe Danzig Moon.

We still need to wait on the post draw......its like waiting to go to the dentist, its a painful wait.


how the heck did you come up w/ those horses?

[BlueChip@DRF]

how the heck did you come up w/ those horses?

Magic darts!

Actually, he's looking for a non-Storm Cat to key over boxcar clunkers.

[nads1420]

how the heck did you come up w/ those horses?

you don't know about the magic horse racing darts... dude your so 1985 :lol:

[nads1420]

as we sit today on 4/15 my derby bets will be:

$2 Exacta (cost $86)
Dort, AP, CD, Moobs W/ Moobs, Frosted, Firing Line, Materiality, Upstart, Danzig Moon, Frammento, Madefromlucky, Far Right, Intl Star, Keen Ice

$1 Tri (Cost 78)
Dort, AP, CD W/Dort, AP, CD, W/ Dort, AP, CD, Moobs, Frosted, Firing Line, Materiality, Upstart, Danzig Moon, Frammento, Madefromlucky, Keen Ice, Far Right, Intl Star

30 WIN on Frosted
30 WIN on Firing Line

Total Investment $224


Hopefully I can trim that down a little

past payouts https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14meVH3tXTu6Lb9pgiiP8ouylmSFpsktVWVUNd2eQyzs/edit#gid=1943991770

[SecretAgentMan]

how the heck did you come up w/ those horses?



Lol.......we still need to see every horse workout, but these are pretty much my horses. I will add some more tho for underneath.


I am playing Frosted over 7 horses/ over the same 7 horses in a triple......$1 cost $42......$1 super cost $210 with the same 7 in all 3 underneath slots.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Lol.......we still need to see every horse workout, but these are pretty much my horses. I will add some more tho for underneath.


I am playing Frosted over 7 horses/ over the same 7 horses in a triple......$1 cost $42......$1 super cost $210 with the same 7 in all 3 underneath slots.

I can help you with your superfecta. Just key who I have singled out for a ladder in the 4th slot. Yeah, that happens to me more often than not.

(Ladder bet: across the board like this > W $10, P $20, S $40)

[SecretAgentMan]

I can help you with your superfecta. Just key who I have singled out for a ladder in the 4th slot. Yeah, that happens to me more often than not.

(Ladder bet: across the board like this > W $10, P $20, S $40)


I'm assuming you don't have a horse yet? I did see you say that you liked AP......

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'm assuming you don't have a horse yet? I did see you say that you liked AP......

Not heavily. I just said he is the most likely candidate to break that 'Storm Cat curse'.

I had 20/40/80 ladder on Shackleford back then. I got a run for my money but lost on the last jump.

[SecretAgentMan]

Not heavily. I just said he is the most likely candidate to break that 'Storm Cat curse'.

I had 20/40/80 ladder on Shackleford back then. I got a run for my money but lost on the last jump.



Either way, we still need to see where all these horses leave from the gate.......I'm assuming if AP leaves frompost #1, you wwon't play him.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Either way, we still need to see where all these horses leave from the gate.......I'm assuming if AP leaves frompost #1, you wwon't play him.

They have to fix that. More points earned should mean a better place in line when picking post position, not the random crap they are doing now.

[SecretAgentMan]

They have to fix that. More points earned should mean a better place in line when picking post position, not the random crap they are doing now.



You bring up good points.......I remember there was a completely different way of picking your post years ago......but can't remember how it was done.

[nads1420]

they used to randomly pick a horse and the trainer would get to select his spot... was a much better way of doing it

[SecretAgentMan]

they used to randomly pick a horse and the trainer would get to select his spot... was a much better way of doing it



Yeah, that's it! And the trainers never picked post #1........I guess there's more drama the way they pick the posts now.

[BlueChip@DRF]

My top horse is Frosted..........

I'm having trouble figuring out who will come in 2nd........I'm thinking a long shot like Frammento, or Far Right.......maybe Danzig Moon.

We still need to wait on the post draw......its like waiting to go to the dentist, its a painful wait.

Do a straight Super of Frosted over Upstart over Carpe Diem over Keen Ice
Or a Super-5 of Frosted over Upstart over Carpe Diem over Keen Ice over El Kabeir and Moobs (or El Kabeir and Dortmund, Danzig Moon)

:cool:

[SecretAgentMan]

Do a straight Super of Frosted over Upstart over Carpe Diem over Keen Ice
Or a Super-5 of Frosted over Upstart over Carpe Diem over Keen Ice over El Kabeir and Moobs (or El Kabeir and Dortmund, Danzig Moon)

:cool:


I don't do str supers........I take my one & only horse on top, then several for 2nd, etc......

Or when the first 2 horses are easy, like Smarty Jones, Lion Heart/All.......& no, I didn't have the super, can't believe I missed that.


Frosted/ 7 horses/same 7 horses/same 7 horses....$1 cost $210 for a super........it should pay big!

[SecretAgentMan]

16 days away for the KD, & I don't know how the weathermen can tell what's its gonna be like on May 2nd, but got an extended forecast of sunny & 85 degrees for Saturday, May 2nd at Churchill........

[BlueChip@DRF]

I don't do str supers........I take my one & only horse on top, then several for 2nd, etc......

Or when the first 2 horses are easy, like Smarty Jones, Lion Heart/All.......& no, I didn't have the super, can't believe I missed that.


Frosted/ 7 horses/same 7 horses/same 7 horses....$1 cost $210 for a super........it should pay big!

It was a joke! Just align the names.....

[SecretAgentMan]

Upstart looking good in this mornings workout......

OchoOcho's trainer stated they will run in the derby......

Bolo's trainer as well stated he will run in the derby.....

Will be interesting to see which horses get scratched for whatever reason.......

#21 MadefromLucky, #22 Keen Ice & #23 Frammento are waiting to get in........but most of the top 20 are looking good. I'm assuming one or two will get sick, not workout well & will be scratched.

12 more days until the post draw......

[BlueChip@DRF]

Upstart looking good in this mornings workout......

OchoOcho's trainer stated they will run in the derby......

Bolo's trainer as well stated he will run in the derby.....

Will be interesting to see which horses get scratched for whatever reason.......

#21 MadefromLucky, #22 Keen Ice & #23 Frammento are waiting to get in........but most of the top 20 are looking good. I'm assuming one or two will get sick, not workout well & will be scratched.

12 more days until the post draw......


I would LOVE for #21 to get in!

[SecretAgentMan]

I would LOVE for #21 to get in!


Yeah, I've seen you state that you like him quite a bit......I don't like him at all........what do you like about him?

[Stoleitbreezing]

Yeah, I've seen you state that you like him quite a bit......I don't like him at all........what do you like about him?

I liked how game he was in the rebel to run 2nd to AP. Had every chance in the slop to get tired on the inside and yield to Bold Conquest who seemed to have 2nd late, but he hung tough and drew clear from that one. I don't remember his trip in the Ark Derby to say anything else about him. I think he has a positive running style for the derby tho.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Yeah, I've seen you state that you like him quite a bit......I don't like him at all........what do you like about him?

Potential to be a bomb. He came in 4th in his last race and will probably be overlooked because of that. Giacomo *cough* Mine That Bird *cough*.... Possible LHX from BMS Pulpit through Preach - Myrtlewood (Frizette) and Princequillo through Narrate. F-Tail goes straight back to Man O'War. Tied for highest in DP (40) and 2nd in I-Chefs (9).

[SecretAgentMan]

Potential to be a bomb. He came in 4th in his last race and will probably be overlooked because of that. Giacomo *cough* Mine That Bird *cough*.... Possible LHX from BMS Pulpit through Preach - Myrtle (Frizette) and Princequillo through Narrate. F-Tail goes straight back to Man O'War. Tied for highest in DP (40) and 2nd in I-Chefs (9).



You know how we were talking about post draws.....& you stated that the top horses should get the 1st draw, etc......I thought about that & it wouldn't be fair to the other horses. Then I thought how about do it like the NFL, NBA & MLB draft where the best horses get to draw last? Lmao......

The worst horses in the point standings get to pick 1st in the draw......I can just imagine that good trainers with good horses holding them back not to win in prep races so they can get a good draw.

The way they do it now is a good way, its gotta be random, only way to do it.

[BlueChip@DRF]

You know how we were talking about post draws.....& you stated that the top horses should get the 1st draw, etc......I thought about that & it wouldn't be fair to the other horses. Then I thought how about do it like the NFL, NBA & MLB draft where the best horses get to draw last? Lmao......

The worst horses in the point standings get to pick 1st in the draw......I can just imagine that good trainers with good horses holding them back not to win in prep races so they can get a good draw.

The way they do it now is a good way, its gotta be random, only way to do it.

What????????????????

I know there's something wrong with this idea but I just can't put my finger on it.....

[SecretAgentMan]

Had a friend tell me that Dortmund list weight & was tired after the Santa Anita derby, can anyone confirm this info?

[SecretAgentMan]

Int Star worked 5f in 1:01

Danzig Moon had a sharp workout, 5f in :58

Keen Ice 5f in :59

[minethatbird08]

Int Star worked 5f in 1:01

Danzig Moon had a sharp workout, 5f in :58

Keen Ice 5f in :59

Liked Danzig Moons Blue Grass; glad to see he likes the CD dirt.

Thanks for the update.

[SecretAgentMan]

Just got an update from Santa Anita thru TVG:


One Lucky Dane pulled up in the morning workout after struggling to get past the target, then after galloping out, he just pulls up.......he didn't break down, but they brought the ambulance out not taking any chances.

[SecretAgentMan]

One Lucky Dane has been scratched, MadefromLucky is now #20.......Keen Ice & Frammento are patiently waiting for a few other horses to be scratched.

[BlueChip@DRF]

One Lucky Dane has been scratched, MadefromLucky is now #20.......Keen Ice & Frammento are patiently waiting for a few other horses to be scratched.

YYYEEEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!

[SecretAgentMan]

Carpe Diem breezed 4f in :48......he galloped out 5f in 1:00.40 and 6f in 1:13.80.


Materiality and Louisiana Derby runner-up Stanford worked in company, clocking 5f in 1:00.52. Materiality galloped out 6f in 1:13.91.

ItaKnockout breezed 4f in :48.17

[SecretAgentMan]

Undefeated Dortmund worked a bullet :58.80 at Santa Anita Park Saturday morning in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Working in company with Game On At Midnite, who was clocked in 1:00.80, Dortmund’s time was the fastest of 59 at the distance, the average time of which was 1:00.66.


Sunland Derby winner Firing Line worked five furlongs in company for Simon Callaghan in 1:00.40 under Gary Stevens with owner Arnold Zetcher on hand.

Stablemate Footstepsinbronze was timed in 1:01.

[nads1420]

Big Dort with the bullet... what a great crop of 3 year olds

[SecretAgentMan]

Big Dort with the bullet... what a great crop of 3 year olds



Gary Stevens was quoated as saying, this is the best 3 year old crop he has seen since he's been riding......that's a big statement since he's riddten Point Given, Silver Charm, & many other great horses.......& let's not forget the great horses he hasn't ridden.

[PaceMasterT]

Undefeated Dortmund worked a bullet :58.80 at Santa Anita Park Saturday morning in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Working in company with Game On At Midnite, who was clocked in 1:00.80, Dortmund’s time was the fastest of 59 at the distance, the average time of which was 1:00.66.


Sunland Derby winner Firing Line worked five furlongs in company for Simon Callaghan in 1:00.40 under Gary Stevens with owner Arnold Zetcher on hand.

Stablemate Footstepsinbronze was timed in 1:01.

The bolded is what causes me problems. Why oh why are you not training at CD for the biggest race in any horses career? IMO, the second I'm qualified I'm at CD. The longer a horse has to acclimate to his surroundings the better.

[Sunday Silence]

You're really going to question Bob Baffert on the right way to bring a horse to the Derby?

There is no 1 way. Many trainers don't do their final, critical work over the CD track, but rather ship right after it. As long as the horse gets to gallop over it for several mornings, adjust to time zones, etc then they are fine.

[PaceMasterT]

You're really going to question Bob Baffert on the right way to bring a horse to the Derby?

There is no 1 way. Many trainers don't do their final, critical work over the CD track, but rather ship right after it. As long as the horse gets to gallop over it for several mornings, adjust to time zones, etc then they are fine.

What does Bob Baffert have more of, Kentucky Derby winners or horses who died on the track from heart problems?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/77448/baffert-horses-big-part-of-sudden-death-spike

[SecretAgentMan]

The bolded is what causes me problems. Why oh why are you not training at CD for the biggest race in any horses career? IMO, the second I'm qualified I'm at CD. The longer a horse has to acclimate to his surroundings the better.



I guess like Art Sherman with Chrome last year......some trainers prefer to keep the horse focused & sharp in working out.

Like mentioned, as long as the horse gallops over the Churchill track several days before the derby, & he takes to the track, its OK.....

I personally would like my horse to be around a lot of people. I think trainers should always have their 2 year old horses around a lot of people so they get used to crowds.

I'm assuming there's a reason he's keeping Dortmund away until next week.

[SecretAgentMan]

Pletcher still has 3 unconfirmed horses for the derby.....ItsaKnockOut, Stanford & MadefromLucky......

All 3 will workout on Saturday, & if they pass Pletchers eye test, they will be confirmed along with Carpe Diem & Materiality.

[nads1420]

im pretty confident in saying American Pharoah or Dortmund will account for one spot in the super and Frosted or Upstart will account for another

[SecretAgentMan]

im pretty confident in saying American Pharoah or Dortmund will account for one spot in the super and Frosted or Upstart will account for another



We gotta see the post positions first......if any of those 4 get post #1, they won't be in my supers.

[nads1420]

We gotta see the post positions first......if any of those 4 get post #1, they won't be in my supers.

agreed. kinda hope 1 horse i like does get the 1 post

[BlueChip@DRF]

agreed. kinda hope 1 horse i like does get the 1 post

A closer shouldn't mind the #1 post.

[SecretAgentMan]

Looked at the 10 day extended forecast for Louisville Kentucky, & from next Tuesday thru derby Saturday will be dry & mostly sunny........don't want to see any rain!

[SecretAgentMan]

Next Friday & Saturdays forecast: Sunny & 75 degrees both days with about a 10% chance of rain on both days.


MadefromLucky has been scratched......Keen Ice is now in........I hope Frammento gets in as well.

[SecretAgentMan]

Carpe Diem and jockey John Velazquez were out before dark Saturday morning at Keeneland, working four furlongs in :48.60 in preparation for next Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

The Blue Grass winner recorded early splits of :13 and :25 and galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.20, six furlongs in 1:14.80, and 1:29.40 for seven furlongs,

[SecretAgentMan]

International Star breezed four furlongs in :50.80 in company with Nominative. The colt traveled his first quarter in :25.20 and three furlongs in :37.60 before galloping out five furlongs in 1:06.20.

Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur also worked Saturday morning at Churchill Downs, clocking five furlongs in 1:00 in company with stablemate Wake Up in Malibu. Tencendur posted splits of :11.60, :23.40, :35.20, and :47.40 and galloped out in 1:14 for six furlongs.

Keen Ice, who entered the Derby field Friday after the defection of Madefromlucky, was out for a Churchill workout as well, breezing five furlongs in 1:01.60 after splits of :11.80, :24, :36, and :48.60. The colt galloped out six furlongs in 1:15.60.

[BlueChip@DRF]

International Star breezed four furlongs in :50.80 in company with Nominative. The colt traveled his first quarter in :25.20 and three furlongs in :37.60 before galloping out five furlongs in 1:06.20.

Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur also worked Saturday morning at Churchill Downs, clocking five furlongs in 1:00 in company with stablemate Wake Up in Malibu. Tencendur posted splits of :11.60, :23.40, :35.20, and :47.40 and galloped out in 1:14 for six furlongs.

Keen Ice, who entered the Derby field Friday after the defection of Madefromlucky, was out for a Churchill workout as well, breezing five furlongs in 1:01.60 after splits of :11.80, :24, :36, and :48.60. The colt galloped out six furlongs in 1:15.60.


Thank you.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I'm not sure what to make of International Star's work tab. Seems like maintenance breezes based on the comments. Anyone have the video for these?

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'm not sure what to make of International Star's work tab. Seems like maintenance breezes based on the comments. Anyone have the video for these?

Just one video shows up.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts (LINK)

[Stoleitbreezing]

It won't let me play the link.

[SecretAgentMan]

I think both Carpe Diem & Int Star had slow workouts, I don't care how well their trainer spoke of them......

[SecretAgentMan]

El Kabeir had a fast workout at 4f in :46.81

Frosted 5f in 1:01.10

Upstart 5f in :59.95

Dortmund & Firing Line also worked out & will get their times.......

[BlueChip@DRF]

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts It won't let me play the link.

[SecretAgentMan]

My cousin said he got to see the video of Carpe Diem, it was a decent workout.......he said he galloped out well......I still don't like hiim.

[woodtoo]

My cousin said he got to see the video of Carpe Diem, it was a decent workout.......he said he galloped out well......I still don't like hiim.
Good news to me.Whats not to like?

[Stoleitbreezing]

I've been back and forth with Carpe Diem. Decided to keep him underneath in a couple of my tickets. Tough call though. Have to make a stand somewhere.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I've been back and forth with Carpe Diem. Decided to keep him underneath in a couple of my tickets. Tough call though. Have to make a stand somewhere.

Now watch him take it in a display of domination.

[SecretAgentMan]

Good news to me.Whats not to like?


He's a good horse, but his beyers are so low for as good as he's hyped up to be. Now I'm wondering if he ran at GP, would he had received anywhere near the big beyers Upstart & Materiality received?

He ran at Keenland on dirt, so beyer doesn't have excuses of trying yo figure out his numbers like he did on polytrack.

He's gonna be sitting right behind Dortmund, Stanford, Materiality, Firing Line.......AP & Carpe Diem will be sitting behind the pace ready to pounce......I think he gets burned out chasing the pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

American Pharoah turned heads at Churchill Downs Sunday morning, breezing five furlongs in a sharp :58 2/5 in his final workout before next Saturday’s race.

With jockey Martin Garcia aboard, the colt raced through splits of :11.40, :23, :34.60, and :46.40 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:11 and seven furlongs in 1:27, according to Churchill Downs PR on Twitter.

[Secondbest]

Watched a replay of the ark .AP doesn't break on top but in a flash he' s by them to settle in position.Changed my mind again Its him (as of now eligible to change ) and Firing line for me so far.

[f2tornado]

American Pharoah turned heads at Churchill Downs Sunday morning, breezing five furlongs in a sharp :58 2/5 in his final workout before next Saturday’s race.

That horse makes it look so easy with little or nothing around him. Gonna be a different picture next weekend. Wish I could toss this guy but can't do it. The only question for me is the pace of his three previous races. His Brisnet E1/E2 were weak in the Front Runner and Rebel but followed with strong LP figures. Then in the Ark he had strong E1/E2 figures followed by a somewhat soft LP. Perhaps that LP was slightly softened by coasting to the line but he was likely near full speed anyway given those closing fractions. If you think otherwise then he should be at the top of all tickets. TimeformUS suggests the same for Front Runner and Rebel but offers better looking later pace numbers in the Ark.

[RoyalHeroine]

That horse makes it look so easy with little or nothing around him. Gonna be a different picture next weekend. Wish I could toss this guy but can't do it. The only question for me is the pace of his three previous races. His Brisnet E1/E2 were weak in the Front Runner and Rebel but followed with strong LP figures. Then in the Ark he had strong E1/E2 figures followed by a somewhat soft LP. Perhaps that LP was slightly softened by coasting to the line but he was likely near full speed anyway given those closing fractions. If you think otherwise then he should be at the top of all tickets. TimeformUS suggests the same for Front Runner and Rebel but offers better looking later pace numbers in the Ark.

Well, there's the answer to if he likes the surface :D!!

The debate goes on: "It'll be different b/c he's done everything so easily". "He's never been looked in the eye; what's he gonna do then". etc. etc.

The trouble is, like you and others have said, he makes it look so easy so what's to say it'll be different, barring a Bayern fiasco, even with 20 horses in the gate?

Victor's been there b4. He'll know what to do. Yet it will be interesting to see, with the over 100k drunkards screaming and whatnot, if he cracks under the pressure.

If one has the balls to throw him out of the top spot, then what? There's 5 or so others who then make the grade. My gut tells me he hasn't scraped the surface of his ability. Hope we get to see it in 6 days.

Can't wait.

[PaceMasterT]

That horse makes it look so easy with little or nothing around him. Gonna be a different picture next weekend. Wish I could toss this guy but can't do it. The only question for me is the pace of his three previous races. His Brisnet E1/E2 were weak in the Front Runner and Rebel but followed with strong LP figures. Then in the Ark he had strong E1/E2 figures followed by a somewhat soft LP. Perhaps that LP was slightly softened by coasting to the line but he was likely near full speed anyway given those closing fractions. If you think otherwise then he should be at the top of all tickets. TimeformUS suggests the same for Front Runner and Rebel but offers better looking later pace numbers in the Ark.


What that tells me is that he is a versatile horse that can relax on a slow pace and put the field away at the end or stalk a fast pace and put the field away at the end.

[f2tornado]

What that tells me is that he is a versatile horse that can relax on a slow pace and put the field away at the end or stalk a fast pace and put the field away at the end.

He's passed a combined one horse during his last four races. Thus far, he's made his own pace and the figures were sketchy until the Ark. Pretty much the same with Dortmund only passing one horse this year aside from being headed briefly by Firing Line in the stretch. Dortmund doesn't look as impressive visually since he didn't win by open lengths. Will be intersesting to see how both these fine colts run in the Derby when they may or may not be able to dictate the pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

Point Given, the year 2001, the trainer Baffert......this horse had won 3 str going into the derby & 5 of 7. His workouts over Churchill leading up to the KD.....

4f in :46.4

5f in :59.3

5f in :58.1 (his last work before the derby, & he looked unbelievable, better than AP)

His odds at post time: 9-5


Results......lost the KD by 12 lengths coming in 5th

AP won't win the KD, but he will dominate the Preakness if he stays healthy.

The horse that beat Point Hiven tied Secretariat's KD record time.......will it take a phenomenal closing time to beat AP? I believe so......its the horse that wants to bust a big race on derby day like Monarchos did........

I was more sure about Monarchos than I am about Frosted.......still like Frosted tho.


Workouts are a good indicator if how the horse should perform, but the reality is not all horses that workout great perform well on the first Saturday in May.

[Huddy Goodjob]

What I find interesting is the lack of triple digit LPs from the " Closers" usally the derby is sprinkled with closers with strong LPs.

Also interesting, looking at AP's late numbers...he was doing his strongest running late in both races prior to the AK Derby. Posted 2 triple digit LPs while running on the lead.

I think Frosted has the strongest numbers...the triple E2, LP and Speed in last...and if one believes that he was only duplicating his FOY run, up until he was impeded by the breathing problem (which I honestly think he had suffered from the entire time and kept him from winning the Remsen and Holly Bull) then we could really see something special from him next Saturday.

[f2tornado]

Point Given, the year 2001, the trainer Baffert......this horse had won 3 str going into the derby & 5 of 7. His workouts over Churchill leading up to the KD.....

Good analogy. AP reminds me a bit of this horse but Point had what I'd consider better looking pace parameters going into the big event. Point Given closed out the SA Derby in a nice 12.2 with final of 1:47.3. Usually horses that finish that race in <1.48 do well in the Derby. He did indeed go on to win the Preakness and Belmont. That horse was more or less able to set his own pace beating up small fields in his three races preceding the Derby; the 4 horse Hollywood Futurity, the 8 horse San Felipe, and the 6 horse Santa Anita Derby... after passing almost everyone to get nosed in the BC Juvenile. Songandaprayer dictated the early pace in that Derby and he was no true sprinter type like Trinniberg a few years back. We are highly unlikely to see those fractions this year but it will not be so easy for Dortmund and Pharoah to set their own pace like they have all year. This isn't the star dudded field War Emblem faced in 2002. Not saying the Pharaoh can't win this thing but we really don't know how good he is in traffic, in an outside trip, or with real speed ahead of him. I'm not playing that unknown at 5/2 odds. I'll use him as as a saver play on top my exacta/tri wheels because he could be that good but hope my other selection wins.


I think Frosted has the strongest numbers...the triple E2, LP and Speed in last...and if one believes that he was only duplicating his FOY run, up until he was impeded by the breathing problem (which I honestly think he had suffered from the entire time and kept him from winning the Remsen and Holly Bull) then we could really see something special from him next Saturday.

I'm inclined to agree. Could be set up for a huge performance. Second race off that minor layoff and a Derby winning mount. Not much to dislike unless one thinks he bounces off that new top but that new top was likely just the result of breathing right. If that breathing issue was very real then the final FOY time would look better too. Again, there is that unknown factor but I think well worth the potential 15-1 reward.

[depalma113]

Point Given, the year 2001, the trainer Baffert......this horse had won 3 str going into the derby & 5 of 7. His workouts over Churchill leading up to the KD.....

4f in :46.4

5f in :59.3

5f in :58.1 (his last work before the derby, & he looked unbelievable, better than AP)

His odds at post time: 9-5


Results......lost the KD by 12 lengths coming in 5th

AP won't win the KD, but he will dominate the Preakness if he stays healthy.

The horse that beat Point Hiven tied Secretariat's KD record time.......will it take a phenomenal closing time to beat AP? I believe so......its the horse that wants to bust a big race on derby day like Monarchos did........

I was more sure about Monarchos than I am about Frosted.......still like Frosted tho.


Workouts are a good indicator if how the horse should perform, but the reality is not all horses that workout great perform well on the first Saturday in May.

The opening half mile in 2001 was :44 4/5. Point Given ran :45 4/5. His workouts had nothing to do with his loss. Stevens blew the ride.

By the way, Monarchos did not tie Secretariat's record. That was a way to overzealous call by Tom Durkin.

[SecretAgentMan]

Point Given made a huge move at the right time, he was just too close to the early pace & that burned him up.......that's exactly what will happen to AP.

Non the less, Monarchos won the derby by making one big sweeping move that he was making in his previous races.......I absolutely loved him in the derby!

[depalma113]

Point Given made a huge move at the right time, he was just too close to the early pace & that burned him up.......that's exactly what will happen to AP.

Please don't bet your money on that assessment. AP will not get cooked by an early pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

Doesn't matter how I assess the race, as long as I have the winner........now the question is, can I pick the winner, we will see.

AP may be good enough to have the lead turn I g for home, but IMO, he won't win the derby.

I know you're all out hard core on AP in winning.......& I'm.all out on him.losing, so one of us will be right.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Doesn't matter how I assess the race, as long as I have the winner........now the question is, can I pick the winner, we will see.

AP may be good enough to have the lead turn I g for home, but IMO, he won't win the derby.

I know you're all out hard core on AP in winning.......& I'm.all out on him.losing, so one of us will be right.

So what is your reason why he won't win? Distance? Others will outfinish him? He can't rate?

[f2tornado]

Please don't bet your money on that assessment. AP will not get cooked by an early pace.

I wouldn't think so but that horse has effectively controlled the pace has last few races. Pokey in the Front Runner and Rebel then more speed in the Ark. Seems like a versatile type but we just don't really know how well he will do without that control (or perhaps he attempts to take it like War Emblem since the speed in this race is not Songandaprayer or Trinniberg fast). Don't blame anyone betting for against. I'll be using him as exotics saver.

[jettroofer]

Doesn't matter how I assess the race, as long as I have the winner........now the question is, can I pick the winner, we will see.

AP may be good enough to have the lead turn I g for home, but IMO, he won't win the derby.

I know you're all out hard core on AP in winning.......& I'm.all out on him.losing, so one of us will be right.

Just curiously, would you bet him if he was 9-1? Or is. Hard stance against?

[SecretAgentMan]

Just curiously, would you bet him if he was 9-1? Or is. Hard stance against?



I had Chrome last year, he was the favorite, odds don't mean anything to me. Chrome wasn't looking at a deep talented field last year like AP is this year......

[SecretAgentMan]

So what is your reason why he won't win? Distance? Others will outfinish him? He can't rate?



I think other horses will out finish him......I think other trainers will not let AP go put to take an easy lead if he wants to, or if he rates, he will chase Firing Line, Materiality, Dortmund, Stanford.......AP could have the lead turning for home, but I think he gets passed down the stretch.

I could be 100% completely wrong, & if so, I hope AP wins the triple crown (because we need one), if he wins the derby.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I think other horses will out finish him......I think other trainers will not let AP go put to take an easy lead if he wants to, or if he rates, he will chase Firing Line, Materiality, Dortmund, Stanford.......AP could have the lead turning for home, but I think he gets passed down the stretch.

I could be 100% completely wrong, & if so, I hope AP wins the triple crown (because we need one), if he wins the derby.

It will be interesting to see what happens. After his last race I don't worry about him getting the distance. However, I suppose it depends on what kind of trip he gets and if he's really hounded by others or gets hooked up on the lead. I think he's the real deal. As less exciting as it is to get 3-1 or 7/2 on him I'm going to be keying him on most of my tickets. I will however box him with Frosted, Upstart, International Star, and Danzig Moon and hope to beat him or have him run 3rd or out of the money.

My stance is I'm going to go against Dortmund as I really don't think he'll get a good trip in the derby and I don't care for Firing Line which is the best horse he's faced this season, which doesn't say much since Firing Line had to go to NM to defeat nobody. AP went to Oaklawn as it was more in Line with his schedule to return from injury, I'm aware he didn't beat anyone there either, but the way he did it was much more impressive then Dortmund.

Its hard for me to imagine AP getting run down in the stretch. We've not seen him put to pressure yet or need the whip. as he has yet to need to be put to a drive. Scary good just thinking about that. We'll see i'm sure someone will test him, but I'm not foreseeing him yielding late.

[Secondbest]

Here are all the horses whose SIRE AWD is Greater Than the DAM SIRE AWD
Dortmund 7.3 6.7
Carpe 8.3 7.2
AP 7.4 6.3
Mat 7.5 7.2
Tencen 6.8 6.7
Itsako 7.8 6.8
Bolo 7.3 6.8
Keen 7.5 7.4
TIED
ElKeib 7.2 7.2
IntStar 7.3 7.3

Interesting that the big four all fail this test

[f2tornado]

Here are all the horses whose SIRE AWD is Greater Than the DAM SIRE AWD
Dortmund 7.3 6.7
Carpe 8.3 7.2
AP 7.4 6.3
Mat 7.5 7.2
Tencen 6.8 6.7
Itsako 7.8 6.8
Bolo 7.3 6.8
Keen 7.5 7.4
TIED
ElKeib 7.2 7.2
IntStar 7.3 7.3

Interesting that the big four all fail this test

Only Barbaro won since 2000 with the same high SireAWD possessed by Carpe Diem. Barbaro also the only winner I could find where SireAWD was greater. No horse has won during that time with DamSireAWD<6.4. Perhaps AP can lower that threshold. I don't know why it would matter if Sire<Dam. Maybe just a fluky coincidence.

[Secondbest]

I just guessed it has something to do with breeding.But since my knowledge of that is very limited maybe it doesn't.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I just guessed it has something to do with breeding.But since my knowledge of that is very limited maybe it doesn't.

I haven't played the horses as long as most of the members here (32) started at 16. I have only known the distance was more from the sire, whereas the class is more from the mare. Is the dam sire more influential in determining distance capabilities?

[SecretAgentMan]

Here are all the horses whose SIRE AWD is Greater Than the DAM SIRE AWD
Dortmund 7.3 6.7
Carpe 8.3 7.2
AP 7.4 6.3
Mat 7.5 7.2
Tencen 6.8 6.7
Itsako 7.8 6.8
Bolo 7.3 6.8
Keen 7.5 7.4
TIED
ElKeib 7.2 7.2
IntStar 7.3 7.3

Interesting that the big four all fail this test


Thanks for the list.......

[Tall One]

He can't rate?


This is a concern. The Derby isn't the type of race you want to figure that out either. Very important pp draw for him tomorrow.

[SecretAgentMan]

The post draw was decent, lice seeing AP way out in post #18........Materiality from post #3 will shoot out like a rocket to get position not to get pinched into the rail.

Materisly, Stanford, Firing Line & Dortmund will battle it put up front, Dortmund might sit back about a length with AP next to him.......



I.will do something I never do in the KD, key 2 horses on top in Exactas, triples & supers......#15 Frosted & #6 Mubtaahij.......why Mubtaahij? Because he's the X-factor in this race with a talented field that we haven't see as deep in years.


My long shots are Keen Ice & El Kabeir

[Giacomo05]

The post draw was decent, lice seeing AP way out in post #18........Materiality from post #3 will shoot out like a rocket to get position not to get pinched into the rail.

Materisly, Stanford, Firing Line & Dortmund will battle it put up front, Dortmund might sit back about a length with AP next to him.......



I.will do something I never do in the KD, key 2 horses on top in Exactas, triples & supers......#15 Frosted & #6 Mubtaahij.......why Mubtaahij? Because he's the X-factor in this race with a talented field that we haven't see as deep in years.


My long shots are Keen Ice & El Kabeir


Im 100% with you on Mubtaahij and Frosted. As of now I am fairly confident they will both hit the board.

[SecretAgentMan]

Im 100% with you on Mubtaahij and Frosted. As of now I am fairly confident they will both hit the board.



Yeah, I'm pretty sure I won't be changing my mind... . I'm.gonna add a few more horses for exotics....

Adding Danzig Moon in the exotics.

[SecretAgentMan]

$400 to win on #6 Mubtaahij........

I'm.not playing Frosted to win at all......

I keyed #6 Mubtaahij on top of all my triples & Exactas........all longshots for 2nd & 3rd......I did include AP as well in there. I completely threw out Dortmund.