Dortmund: Can He Be Stopped? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Bob S.

03-09-2015, 01:20 PM

DeltaLover

03-09-2015, 01:23 PM

I think that it is more possible for this colt to just be more precautions than his rivals and as time goes by they will catch up...

03-09-2015, 01:34 PM

On Saturday I was just as impressed with the runner up, Prospect Park. The pace was moderate, yet he made up a little ground late despite running at least three lengths farther.

DeltaLover

03-09-2015, 01:40 PM

On Saturday I was just as impressed with the runner up, Prospect Park. The pace was moderate, yet he made up a little ground late despite at least three lengths farther.

:ThmbUp:

I completely agree and already marked him down as a candidate for a huge improvement...

Stillriledup

03-09-2015, 01:58 PM

On Saturday I was just as impressed with the runner up, Prospect Park. The pace was moderate, yet he made up a little ground late despite running at least three lengths farther.

Cyrus Alexander raced against Prospect Park on Dec 27th at SA and you have said that you're not impressed with Cyrus even though in this race, he seemed to be just as good as PP, you can make the case he was visually better and he did seem to lose more ground so he ran a better "number" in this race too.

Has PP taken the next step while CA hasn't since this Dec 27th race? I'm a fan of both those horses, i dont know if they're good enough to be considered Derby contenders, but if Dortmund is the benchmark, than i think both horses are in the mix.

03-09-2015, 02:00 PM

Cyrus Alexander raced against Prospect Park on Dec 27th at SA and you have said that you're not impressed with Cyrus even though in this race, he seemed to be just as good as PP, you can make the case he was visually better and he did seem to lose more ground so he ran a better "number" in this race too.

Has PP taken the next step while CA hasn't since this Dec 27th race? I'm a fan of both those horses, i dont know if they're good enough to be considered Derby contenders, but if Dortmund is the benchmark, than i think both horses are in the mix.

These are 3yos, December 27th was a long time ago. I wasn't impressed with CA recently, didn't comment on the race in December.

notoutofpounds

03-09-2015, 02:42 PM

Dortmund cannot be stopped. He is on a mission to win the Kentucky Derby just like his sire Big Brown.

:5: races, :5: wins

Next up is the Santa Anita Derby.

Grits

03-09-2015, 02:52 PM

Yes. He can be stopped. If he's body slammed out of the gate.

Just ask Shared Belief...

woodtoo

03-09-2015, 03:33 PM

Yes. He can be stopped. If he's body slammed out of the gate.

Just ask Shared Belief...

May I suggest you watch that start from the Blimps view?

DeltaLover

03-09-2015, 03:36 PM

I read in the other thread that TFUS gave D a 108 and EK a 99.. Does anyone know the corresponding beyers?

ReplayRandall

03-09-2015, 03:46 PM

I read in the other thread that TFUS gave D a 108 and EK a 99.. Does anyone know the corresponding beyers?
Dortmund posted a 104 Beyer, EK was less than a 95 and wasn't listed:
http://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

Lemon Drop Husker

03-09-2015, 03:48 PM

Dortmund posted a 104 Beyer, EK was less than a 95 and wasn't listed:
http://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

El Keiber received an 89 BSF in the Gotham.

DeltaLover

03-09-2015, 03:53 PM

So, Constitution ran a better beyer than SB! Interesting..

Nitro

03-09-2015, 03:59 PM

Dortmund has shown to be a serious threat to win this year's Kentucky Derby. What can derail this ultra-impressive colt?

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/03/09/dortmund-are-there-any-chinks-in-his-armour/
Yes of course this horse and its running style presents problems for the other contenders. A threat yes, a Winner, not necessarily. As far as I’m concerned the horse has yet to be really challenged hard early in a fast paced race. Horses with this type of running style need serious conditioning and foundation to wire the field at a mile-and-a-quarter, especially when challenged early. But he certainly has the right pedigree!

RacingFan1992

03-09-2015, 04:29 PM

I thought this might be of interest for those of you who want to look at the past undefeated horses. Who knows, he might be defeated one day or another.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Undefeated%20Starters%20%282015%29.pdf

Cratos

03-09-2015, 04:48 PM

Dortmund has shown to be a serious threat to win this year's Kentucky Derby. What can derail this ultra-impressive colt?

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/03/09/dortmund-are-there-any-chinks-in-his-armour/
I have been a Dortmund supporter from the beginning and I do believe any horse can be "stopped", but I will ask you again; do Dortmund remind you of Point Given?

I believe Baffert is "loaded" this year for the TC races and barring injury or something else he should visit the winners' circle in at least two of the three races.

03-09-2015, 05:49 PM

So, Constitution ran a better beyer than SB! Interesting..

I had it the same way for TimeformUS the day they both ran , but that doesn't mean I believe Constitution is the better horse. I said exactly this in my blog. Shared Belief ran 112 that day, 117 yesterday, and I'd bet he has a 130 in his future if he is every really pushed.

OTM Al

03-09-2015, 05:57 PM

Frost king

03-09-2015, 06:37 PM

So what is your point, by posting the records of undefeated Derby starters? They are 7/24. Which means they have a 29% random chance of winning the race, because they are undefeated. Take out the horses that didn't run at 2 yrs old, and the numbers increase even more.

DeltaLover

03-09-2015, 07:07 PM

d bet he has a 130 in his future if he is every really pushed.

You mean 130 beyer fig?? If this happens, it should put it on top of the list for many years.. How long it has been since we saw a 130 (!!!)??? Although I am not following beyers closely and do not keep them in a database, I think that the highest I can recall should be Quality Road and Commentator’s who both were in the high 120sh...

exactatom

03-09-2015, 07:48 PM

A big horse has a distinct disadvantage in a field with a lot of traffic. There does not seem to be deep closers this year, so this field will be a tight group of 20. While everyone seems to crow about the group of West Coast three year olds, they have done a pretty good job of avoiding each other. I also could say the same about the East Coast and the proof is that Upstart, Far Right and International Star have crossed the line first in both preps at their respective tracks as well as El Kabeir having won 2 New York preps. However, with the point system weighted, we are seeing horses wait longer each year to get involved in Derby preps. Therefore, I think Dortmund is going to have to face an increased level of competition in early May. To me it is way too premature to say he is unbeatable.
I also feel if he were a dominant horse, he would not have won his 3 rd and 4th lifetime races by just barely getting by a weaker horse. Dominant horses not only get past, but run on past horses they overtake.

JustRalph

03-09-2015, 08:15 PM

His size may work against him in a crowded race. He seems to take a while to get fully unwound and traffic will bother that. Good horses make their trips but a 20 horse race makes good trips difficult to find.

I agree. I think he is one paced. He goes even it seems. I don't think he has a turn of foot. If he gets blocked or has to run early, he could be compromised pretty easy. It's early though. Still more to come....

Rex Phinney

03-09-2015, 10:43 PM

No way he wins the Derby, he is winning these races on pure talent, the field he beat Saturday IMO looked awful. He is simply ahead of the rest in development. His running style leaves him a sitting duck in a field of 20 horses, many of which will have no realistic chance of winning aside from gunning for the front and crossing their fingers once they get there.

He strikes me as a typical Baffert type, plenty of speed, seemingly trained to run for the front and hope for the best once they get there. It wins alot of shorter mildly competitive races, but in a full field of G1 runners going a classic distance, it fails more than it works.

zico20

03-10-2015, 01:08 AM

I have been a Dortmund supporter from the beginning and I do believe any horse can be "stopped", but I will ask you again; do Dortmund remind you of Point Given?

I believe Baffert is "loaded" this year for the TC races and barring injury or something else he should visit the winners' circle in at least two of the three races.

After the CD race I said Dortmund will be a superstar. Nothing has changed my opinion of him. He is still far from his best race. He can run all day. Baffert was smart to run him in the San Felipe. Dortmund needed three prep races to be at his best on Derby day. Baffert didn't make the same mistake as he did with Point Given. And yes Dortmund reminds me of Point Given in so many ways. The Derby will be Dortmunds biggest obstacle in winning the triple crown. If Dortmund wins the Derby and Preakness the Belmont will be a foregone conclusion. The Belmont will be another Risen Star, Point Given romp. The further the distance the better he will be.

Investorater

03-10-2015, 10:07 AM

It is my opinion that DORTY wasn't fully cranked for the San Felipe Stakes yet he still won. The horse relaxes while running. Now Baffert is even more certain of who he's training. (son of Derby winner Big Brown).

Dortmund shouldn't be wound up completely for the Santa Anita Derby either (I'd be happy with a top three finish) and then have the colt reach his peak on the first Saturday in May. :), , , , , , , , , ,\O/

JustRalph

03-10-2015, 10:19 AM

After the CD race I said Dortmund will be a superstar. Nothing has changed my opinion of him. He is still far from his best race. He can run all day. Baffert was smart to run him in the San Felipe. Dortmund needed three prep races to be at his best on Derby day. Baffert didn't make the same mistake as he did with Point Given. And yes Dortmund reminds me of Point Given in so many ways. The Derby will be Dortmunds biggest obstacle in winning the triple crown. If Dortmund wins the Derby and Preakness the Belmont will be a foregone conclusion. The Belmont will be another Risen Star, Point Given romp. The further the distance the better he will be.

That's a long plank you just walked out on.........👍

I don't think he is that good, yet. He needs to develop a little push button speed

03-10-2015, 11:17 AM

You mean 130 beyer fig?? If this happens, it should put it on top of the list for many years.. How long it has been since we saw a 130 (!!!)??? Although I am not following beyers closely and do not keep them in a database, I think that the highest I can recall should be Quality Road and Commentator’s who both were in the high 120sh...

No, TimeformUS, which would be in the low 120s if compared to Beyer.

classhandicapper

03-10-2015, 11:35 AM

DeltaLover

03-10-2015, 01:31 PM

No, TimeformUS, which would be in the low 120s if compared to Beyer.

Ok, this is very possible..

Grits

03-10-2015, 02:10 PM

I think we better see what American Pharoah has in the tank before we concede anything to Dortmund (who I thought ran well on the weekend but monstrously well the race before that).

The little bit I've read about how American Pharoah is doing from his connections gives me the feeling they think AP is a terror.

I take what these owners now say with a grain of salt--this came about when I saw the shape Nehro's feet were in. The owners, still, sending him to work in the a.m. and to race in the p.m.

As far as Dortmund, he's so talented! However, I'm not sure I would have kept my horses, including Bayern and this one, with a trainer who made no public explanation for seven of his horses dropping dead, particularly if I were Kaleem Shah and I was the owner of three of those seven. Maybe he explained the misfortune to Mr.Shah. Hopefully so.

Just an observation, but some things that have occurred over the last couple of years are difficult to put out of one's mind.

letswastemoney

03-10-2015, 03:37 PM

Dortmund loses ground turning. It's easy to see him getting shuffled back on the turns in a 20 horse field at Churchill Downs.

I think that big horses have trouble with shorter turns. If he needs more time to unwind, Belmont Park is the perfect track for him.

Secondbest

03-10-2015, 04:14 PM

I Agree with Class until American Pharoah runs all predictions are on hold.Baffert is putting some bottom on AP with a string of 7f works out to a mile.We Will find out this weekend.

letswastemoney

03-10-2015, 04:30 PM

I Agree with Class until American Pharoah runs all predictions are on hold.Baffert is putting some bottom on AP with a string of 7f works out to a mile.We Will find out this weekend.I'd be shocked if American Pharoah lost, especially after watching the last workout. Most of the "lesser" horses in Baffert's barn are still pretty good, yet the workmate got toasted. He looks set. 1ejYeGgjMwI

Secondbest

03-10-2015, 04:42 PM

The rider was standing up 6f in 110.3 A mile in 136 From the Gate no less . Gleaming coat he looked terrific. Thanks for the video

Rex Phinney

03-10-2015, 07:16 PM

I'm going to have to see one of them do something besides win on the front end. Until then I'm not forgetting about a horse like Texas Red who will be doing his best running late.

maclr11

03-10-2015, 07:22 PM

He sat well off at Churchill and seemed to run just fine.

JustRalph

03-10-2015, 07:37 PM

I'm going to have to see one of them do something besides win on the front end. Until then I'm not forgetting about a horse like Texas Red who will be doing his best running late.

Desermoux giving up on him can't be good.......if he has decided to ride elsewhere? What does he know?

Rex Phinney

03-10-2015, 11:29 PM

He sat well off at Churchill and seemed to run just fine.

I don't know if I would call it "well off" the pace, but he was not on the lead, and if you want to make a Kentucky Derby bet based about how a horse ran in an AOC in November of the year before, fire away.

All Baffert's horses run the same, this one seems to be taking the same road. The longer Baffert has had him the more the horse has gunned to the front. It will work awesome for 8.5 furlong races over the Santa Anita Surface, it will get him beaten easily at 10 furlongs in a field of 20 at Churchill. Dortmund has zero experience in traffic, and I don't see that changing in the SA Derby.

It's why horses like Game on Dude and Bayern are so pace sensitive, they are totally at the mercy of the field to leave them alone on the lead.

Just my .02

Rex Phinney

03-10-2015, 11:30 PM

Desermoux giving up on him can't be good.......if he has decided to ride elsewhere? What does he know?

Maybe not that horse specifically, I have to see another race out of him, I just meant one with his running style in general.

castaway01

03-10-2015, 11:54 PM

After the CD race I said Dortmund will be a superstar. Nothing has changed my opinion of him. He is still far from his best race. He can run all day. Baffert was smart to run him in the San Felipe. Dortmund needed three prep races to be at his best on Derby day. Baffert didn't make the same mistake as he did with Point Given. And yes Dortmund reminds me of Point Given in so many ways. The Derby will be Dortmunds biggest obstacle in winning the triple crown. If Dortmund wins the Derby and Preakness the Belmont will be a foregone conclusion. The Belmont will be another Risen Star, Point Given romp. The further the distance the better he will be.

Not denying the horse looks good but can we get him in the gate for the Derby, much less winning it, much less the Preakness, before we award him the Triple Crown on pedigree. (I know Just Ralph gave you kudos for going out on a limb, but I've seen your other posts and the limb usually gets sawed off behind you and you land on your head, so...)