Analysis for $400,000 San Felipe Stakes

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Will Dortmund bounce? A ‘bounce’ is when a horse regresses after turning a top effort. Sometimes the top effort was difficult to achieve and that was the case in the Robert B. Lewis Feb 7, as he pressed the pace, was headed in mid-stretch, and was forced to re-rally to beat the promising Firing Line. He earned a powerful figure for the class that day and it would not have been too surprising should Baffert have opted to train him up to the Santa Anita Derby. However, Baffert has been two works into his undefeated soph and Dortmund figures to be a very short price. The prospect of a ‘bounce’ makes him at least somewhat suspect, so he gets an HF 15a despite his lofty paper-race standing and his likely low odds. Ocho Ocho Ocho won all three of his 2014 starts and he capped the campaign with a narrow win in the Delta Jackpot Nov 22. He’s trained well for his soph campaign and this is a logical spot for him to make his return. Of course, the connections are likely pointing for April and May, so he may not be completely cranked up. Pulmarack is racing in good form and the Cal-bred ran well in defeat in the Cal Cup Derby Jan 24. He has improved since being stretched out for a Maiden here Oct 17 and the price may be fair. Bolo exits back-to-back turf wins and gets tested for class while switched to the main track. He’s bred to handle the distance and is quick enough to force the pace in a race without a dedicated frontrunner. Prospect Park shoots for the hat trick after winning two routes at this meeting. He, too, should be well spotted in the second flight. The Gomper was favored to beat ‘Park Jan 30, but was troubled on the first turn and never recovered. Ellis gives him a confident class hike and The Gomper is the upset threat.

CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance
have been: Pulmarack :31.2 - Dortmund :31.7 - Lord Nelson :31.9

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