bgbootha
03-06-2015, 10:11 AM
1 - DONTBETWITHBRUNO - Broke his maiden last time out here at Aqueduct back on the first of February at short odds. This colt has some nice pedigree (+1 HBD pedigree rating) and its never easy to toss out a Pletcher horse this time of year. It would take a drastic improvement to take on the leaders in this race. The distance shouldn’t be a problem, I don’t see this horse as an auto toss, but it will have to give me a good price to look in this direction.
1A - UNINFLUENCED - Another lightly raced horse that is making his graded stakes debut without breaking his maiden. It’s OK, you read that last sentence correctly, this is a horse that is making his third start a graded stakes Kentucky Derby prep race and hasn’t been able to beat weaker fields in two Maiden 60k races. That being said his last start was a muddy 2nd place finish and his pedigree rating of +5 leads to some hope. Todd Pletcher trained horses often make strange starts and this is one of them, his workout records have been very impressive throughout the first week of February, but he hasn’t had a clocked workout for a month leading into this race. The pedigree number and the fact that Pletcher is up to something will have this horse on my exotics, but with more question marks than confidence.
1X - BLAME JIM - An interesting horse who is lightly raced and looked good in his last start finishing 2nd at Gulfstream Park at 6f. This is another horse that has been working out well, but just doesn’t seem to fit in at this distance or in this class of competition. His HBD pedigree rating is a dismal -14 for this distance and he will be stretching out after being out finished at 6f last time out. Another toss here.
2 - COMBAT DRIVER - Coming off a decent second in the Miracle Wood at Laurel in the middle of February still doesn’t make this horse worth looking at here. His penultimate start was completely horrific in the Remsen here at Aqueduct back in November where he finished 19 lengths off the leader without ever coming close to the field. He was bumped out of the gate here, but it simply didn’t make a difference. This horse doesn’t belong in this field and is an easy toss.
3 - CLASSY CLASS - After breaking his maiden in his debut back in October he looked like a possible superstar, but he hasn’t been able to find the winners circle again. He showed up well in the Withers last time out running a solid third behind El Kabeir and Far From Over. His speed figures have improved and he is within range of jumping up into the class as the leaders here. He is coming off a solid workout back on February 27th at Belmont. His pedigree for this race is some concern (-11 HBD Pedigree Rating) especially the ability to get the distance needed here.
4 - EL KABEIR - The class of the race and I will be amazed if we see anything close to 2-1 come post time. He finished 2nd last time out in the Withers to Far From Over, but it took what was one of the best races I have seen from an 3 year old to beat him. The Withers wasn’t his best race but the same result would be good enough to beat this field. His pedigree numbers aren’t great for this distance (-3 HBD pedigree rating), but he will be out front and someone is going to have to catch him.
5 - LIEUTENANT COLONEL - We don’t know much about this horse, he has one race under his belt and it was a half-length win in a Maiden 45k at Gulfstream a month ago. His workouts haven’t been anything special but that’s nothing crazy when we are looking at Chad Brown’s top horses. His pedigree rating (-6 HBD Pedigree rating) isn’t looking great but we really don’t know what this horse has to offer. I don’t think he is good enough to win but you can’t toss him out of the exotics just in case.
6 - TIZ SHEA D - First of all I love the name and I love this horse in this situation. If there is one horse in this field that I am excited to see race it’s this colt. Coming off an impressive win last time out a month ago at Parx. He won a short 5.5f race by 4 lengths and was simply exploding away from the field and could have won by more. His HBD pedigree rating of +5 is impressive the fact he is moving from a 5.5f debut up to 1 1/16 doesn’t concern me too much. With the overall weak field here, it won’t take much of a jump to surprise some people here. Especially if someone out there decides to take on El Kabeir on the pace.
7 - TOASTING MASTER - At the end of 2013 this was an undefeated 2 year old who looked impressive at Churchill Downs. Two months into his 3 year old career, we are trying to figure out what happened. His last two races were complete garbage without much excuse. Last time out he finished 4th to a much weaker field on the synthetic making his first attempt at the route distance. His pedigree doesn’t give me much confidence that he can handle the distance (-4 HBD pedigree rating) leading to yet another toss here.
8 - TENCENDUR - Another horse that probably doesn’t belong in this field, but then again when most of the horses in the field shouldn’t be here, maybe they all should be here? Coming off an unimpressive 4th in the Withers this colt will take on a similar field that it couldn’t handle last time out. The connections have been working out well and will add blinkers, but I just don’t see how they help. This colt was able to split horses in his win back in January, which doesn’t lead me to believe that blinkers or lack of blinkers is the problem. The problem is that this horse is simply outclassed. His -10 HBD pedigree rating would agree here, and even after two bullet workouts in the last few weeks, it doesn’t seem like this horse should be ready to go here.
Overall
It would be very easy to circle EL KABEIR here without much thought, but looking at this field there is simply no way that he is going to offer any kind of value come post time. It wouldn’t surprise me if we are looking at something close to a 3/5 post time line and quite frankly that’s just not worth the bet. The interesting thing about this race is going to be the pace. El Kabeir has ran on or near the front in every race he has ran and he will likely have some company there on Saturday. I count a total of five horses that could be looking for the lead in this one, my guess is that the connection of El Kabeir will try to rate this horse off of these leaders and try to make a run, but this is something he really hasn’t been able to do impressively in the past. Some may point to his ‘rating’ in the Jerome where he moved from third to first along the turn, but a quick watch of the replay will show you that he was right there with the leaders the entire race. If Kabeir gets caught in the speed duel or speed three to five-some, we could have an interesting race coming down the stretch. I will be keeping an eye on TIZ SHEA D and the question marked up UNINFLUENCED going into this one. But the fact is its El Kabeir’s race to lose. With all the exciting races on Saturday, this field is the one I am least excited to see.
1A - UNINFLUENCED - Another lightly raced horse that is making his graded stakes debut without breaking his maiden. It’s OK, you read that last sentence correctly, this is a horse that is making his third start a graded stakes Kentucky Derby prep race and hasn’t been able to beat weaker fields in two Maiden 60k races. That being said his last start was a muddy 2nd place finish and his pedigree rating of +5 leads to some hope. Todd Pletcher trained horses often make strange starts and this is one of them, his workout records have been very impressive throughout the first week of February, but he hasn’t had a clocked workout for a month leading into this race. The pedigree number and the fact that Pletcher is up to something will have this horse on my exotics, but with more question marks than confidence.
1X - BLAME JIM - An interesting horse who is lightly raced and looked good in his last start finishing 2nd at Gulfstream Park at 6f. This is another horse that has been working out well, but just doesn’t seem to fit in at this distance or in this class of competition. His HBD pedigree rating is a dismal -14 for this distance and he will be stretching out after being out finished at 6f last time out. Another toss here.
2 - COMBAT DRIVER - Coming off a decent second in the Miracle Wood at Laurel in the middle of February still doesn’t make this horse worth looking at here. His penultimate start was completely horrific in the Remsen here at Aqueduct back in November where he finished 19 lengths off the leader without ever coming close to the field. He was bumped out of the gate here, but it simply didn’t make a difference. This horse doesn’t belong in this field and is an easy toss.
3 - CLASSY CLASS - After breaking his maiden in his debut back in October he looked like a possible superstar, but he hasn’t been able to find the winners circle again. He showed up well in the Withers last time out running a solid third behind El Kabeir and Far From Over. His speed figures have improved and he is within range of jumping up into the class as the leaders here. He is coming off a solid workout back on February 27th at Belmont. His pedigree for this race is some concern (-11 HBD Pedigree Rating) especially the ability to get the distance needed here.
4 - EL KABEIR - The class of the race and I will be amazed if we see anything close to 2-1 come post time. He finished 2nd last time out in the Withers to Far From Over, but it took what was one of the best races I have seen from an 3 year old to beat him. The Withers wasn’t his best race but the same result would be good enough to beat this field. His pedigree numbers aren’t great for this distance (-3 HBD pedigree rating), but he will be out front and someone is going to have to catch him.
5 - LIEUTENANT COLONEL - We don’t know much about this horse, he has one race under his belt and it was a half-length win in a Maiden 45k at Gulfstream a month ago. His workouts haven’t been anything special but that’s nothing crazy when we are looking at Chad Brown’s top horses. His pedigree rating (-6 HBD Pedigree rating) isn’t looking great but we really don’t know what this horse has to offer. I don’t think he is good enough to win but you can’t toss him out of the exotics just in case.
6 - TIZ SHEA D - First of all I love the name and I love this horse in this situation. If there is one horse in this field that I am excited to see race it’s this colt. Coming off an impressive win last time out a month ago at Parx. He won a short 5.5f race by 4 lengths and was simply exploding away from the field and could have won by more. His HBD pedigree rating of +5 is impressive the fact he is moving from a 5.5f debut up to 1 1/16 doesn’t concern me too much. With the overall weak field here, it won’t take much of a jump to surprise some people here. Especially if someone out there decides to take on El Kabeir on the pace.
7 - TOASTING MASTER - At the end of 2013 this was an undefeated 2 year old who looked impressive at Churchill Downs. Two months into his 3 year old career, we are trying to figure out what happened. His last two races were complete garbage without much excuse. Last time out he finished 4th to a much weaker field on the synthetic making his first attempt at the route distance. His pedigree doesn’t give me much confidence that he can handle the distance (-4 HBD pedigree rating) leading to yet another toss here.
8 - TENCENDUR - Another horse that probably doesn’t belong in this field, but then again when most of the horses in the field shouldn’t be here, maybe they all should be here? Coming off an unimpressive 4th in the Withers this colt will take on a similar field that it couldn’t handle last time out. The connections have been working out well and will add blinkers, but I just don’t see how they help. This colt was able to split horses in his win back in January, which doesn’t lead me to believe that blinkers or lack of blinkers is the problem. The problem is that this horse is simply outclassed. His -10 HBD pedigree rating would agree here, and even after two bullet workouts in the last few weeks, it doesn’t seem like this horse should be ready to go here.
Overall
It would be very easy to circle EL KABEIR here without much thought, but looking at this field there is simply no way that he is going to offer any kind of value come post time. It wouldn’t surprise me if we are looking at something close to a 3/5 post time line and quite frankly that’s just not worth the bet. The interesting thing about this race is going to be the pace. El Kabeir has ran on or near the front in every race he has ran and he will likely have some company there on Saturday. I count a total of five horses that could be looking for the lead in this one, my guess is that the connection of El Kabeir will try to rate this horse off of these leaders and try to make a run, but this is something he really hasn’t been able to do impressively in the past. Some may point to his ‘rating’ in the Jerome where he moved from third to first along the turn, but a quick watch of the replay will show you that he was right there with the leaders the entire race. If Kabeir gets caught in the speed duel or speed three to five-some, we could have an interesting race coming down the stretch. I will be keeping an eye on TIZ SHEA D and the question marked up UNINFLUENCED going into this one. But the fact is its El Kabeir’s race to lose. With all the exciting races on Saturday, this field is the one I am least excited to see.