3/7-Monster Saturday: Gotham/San Felipe/TB Derby

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Fantastic Saturday as a lot of Kentucky Derby contenders lock heads in their hopeful route to the May classic.

Aqueduct-Gotham: The hard running El Kabeir looks to gain more points to his current 25. Any points gained will almost assuredly gain him a spot come Derby day, if he hasn't already earned enough to get in. Classy Class and Tencendur look to challenge.

Tampa Bay-Tampa Bay Derby: Previous and recent Derby winners have come out of this one, and it is a pretty loaded field. Ocean Knight and Carpe Diem look to square off as the headliners, but don't forget about other possible rising stars in Danzig Moon, Souper Collossal, and Diving Rod. Could be the 3YO race of the weekend.

Santa Anita- San Felipe: Dortmund will likely be favored, but he is facing his toughest test to date. Lord Nelson, Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Prospect Park are very daunting entries in their own right. Race is loaded with talent.

Wish they had a Pick 3 on these 3 races.

Who ya' got?

[ArlJim78]

The San Felipe is really an eye-popper. What a deep and talented field.
A great prep race. I like Ocho Ocho Ocho but this is not a soft spot to return off the layoff.

[snickster]

I got my eye on Sir Sampson in the San Filipe. First time out battled for lead with Dortmund and totally gave it up but that was his first start. Then came back and won pretty fast race at LRC. Then in 7F Gr 2 San Vicente against Texas Red and Lord Nelson who are in the very top tier of 3yos, ran a bang up very even race starting 1 length off lead and finishing 1 length off lead in a somewhat fast race. To run a very even race against quality horses at a shorter distance is the ultimate sign that a horse will run good at a stretch out. I would say that he is at least good as or better than Lord Nelson and Texas Red at a longer distance.

I don't think Dortmund has proved to be that great as he has struggled against firing line twice to win with Mr. Z not far behind. Ocho Ocho Ocho beat Mr. Z too by a small margin in the Delta Jackpot so these two (Dortmond and Ocho) are about on the same level.

Prospect Park also has not really beat anything that great. St Joe Bay is a pretty good horse and he beat by 5 but Joe could not hold the lead in the Risen Star against lesser horses than all of these have been running better against (International Star).

So out of the contenders that I have mentioned above:

Dortmund
Lord Nelson
Prospect Park
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Sir Sampson

I am going with Sir Sampson with a saver on Ocho Ocho Ocho my two top contenders.

[snickster]

Looking at the Gotham it don't appear to be that tough of a race. You have the favorite El Kabeir who don't really look like at top notch super quality horse. The #3 Classy Class is a very nice horse but not in the top tier of 3yos yet gave El Kabeir a run. Blame Jim could be good but if he were really good he would have throw 44 and change fractions at GP rather than 45/4. I don't see anything else that has run any really impressive races.

My shot is going to be #6 Tiz Shea Z. This horse is by Tiznow so has the breeding. This horse beat We Miss Anthony at Parx by 4 easily in first start. We Miss Anthony in next beat The Catmancan by 9 1/2 coming from Aqueduct. The Catmancan ran 2nd to General Bellamy at Aqueduct with #1 Dontbetwithbruno running 4th in same race by a wopping 10 lengths behind. Tiz Shea Z surely has proven that he could have special potential and is trained by Mott. He may be suspect because they started him at Parx but a lot of good horses were first started at that track.

[snickster]

Looking at the Tampa Derby to me it looks like at 2 horse race. Carpe Diem and Super Colossal. These two last met in the BC Juvenile where Super ran blistering fractions and faded while Carpe Diem ran at the back of the pack moping along and finished 2nd passing tiring horses. That was not an impressive race at all. However you got to give him a lot of respect by beating Mr. Z who is in the top tier of 3yos by 6 at KEE in Gr. 1 at 1 1/16th. Maybe he was just having a bad day in the BC.

Regardless I would have to give the edge to Super Colossal who ran the blistering fractions in the BC against the best 3yos after a relatively long layoff only to fade in the end. This is a truly impressive accomplishment. He should be able to wire Carpe Diem this time.

The rest in the race have not been running against anything with proven class and in relatively slow races so I would chunk them - but who knows this is horse racing.

[menifee]

Looking at the Tampa Derby to me it looks like at 2 horse race. Carpe Diem and Super Colossal. These two last met in the BC Juvenile where Super ran blistering fractions and faded while Carpe Diem ran at the back of the pack moping along and finished 2nd passing tiring horses. That was not an impressive race at all. However you got to give him a lot of respect by beating Mr. Z who is in the top tier of 3yos by 6 at KEE in Gr. 1 at 1 1/16th. Maybe he was just having a bad day in the BC.

Regardless I would have to give the edge to Super Colossal who ran the blistering fractions in the BC against the best 3yos after a relatively long layoff only to fade in the end. This is a truly impressive accomplishment. He should be able to wire Carpe Diem this time.

The rest in the race have not been running against anything with proven class and in relatively slow races so I would chunk them - but who knows this is horse racing.

SC is scratched. Fever.

[PhantomOnTour]

SC is scratched. Fever.
Wow...I was counting on him to really push this pace to the point of destruction, and was tabbing the even running Ami's Flatter to get a big piece at a big price. Was even going to use late running Great Stuff on some tickets too.

Gotta retool my tickets now...still like Ami's Flatter to improve with Lasix and blinks, three works since the Sam Davis, like the figure pattern for his 3rd off the layoff try.

[letswastemoney]

I don't think Dortmund has proved to be that great as he has struggled against firing line twice to win with Mr. Z not far behind. Ocho Ocho Ocho beat Mr. Z too by a small margin in the Delta Jackpot so these two (Dortmond and Ocho) are about on the same level.
I would argue that whatever doubts on Dortmund's ability were erased when he won the Robert Lewis in a monster effort that fractured the field except for Firing Line.

Mr. Z ran well at Oaklawn. He was just pace compromised, and seems like one of those horses that wants to lose no matter what.

As for Ocho Ocho Ocho, Delta Downs is a strange bullring track, and horses that win there generally don't rise to become top Derby contenders.

Without Firing Line, I think Dortmund wins this by 5.

[GaryG]

I look for Prospect Park to move into the elite class with a big win here. Things change rapidly with 3yo this time of the year. Last I heard about Texas Red he was supposed to make the SA Derby. If so, I am sure Kent will stick with him.Ocho is using this race to prep for the SA Derby.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Gotham - Pass. Don't see anybody beating El Kabeir who will go off at a ridiculous price.

TB Derby - Going against Ocean Knight and Carpe Diem in here. Going with Ami's Flatter and Danzig Moon on top with some Divining Rod and then some Great Stuff on the bottom of exotics. Obviously OK and CD will be in the mix.

San Felipe - I see Dortmund getting beat today. Gonna keep him out of the Exacta as well. Love Ocho Ocho Ocho along with Lord Nelson. Will be throwing Prospect Park and The Gomper in on exotics. Not sure what to do with Bolo and Sir Samson?

[pondman]

San Felipe- Nobody has mentioned Lord Nelson. He's the next generation of Pulpits who won a 7 furlong race and wad discounted as a sprinter. This horse's breeding says Kentucky Derby. Should do well here.

[f2tornado]

Competitive prep races today. The Gotham looks like the easiest wager. El Kabeir won't have Far From Over running him down today but it will be hard to ignore the Pletcher triple coupled wagering entry. Of those, I like Blame Jim who has Mr. P on top along with Buckpasser and the conduit mare Marchetta in tail female. My other possible upset would be Tiz Shea D which has two paths of Buckpasser on the dam side.

My wagers will probably look something like this:
Exacta box :1::4:
Trifecta wheel :1::4:/:1::4::6:/:1::4::6:

I still have not got a good feel for the Tampa Derby. Ocean Knight had a nice run from the 11 hole in the Sam Davis and has a nice inside draw here. He's got the Buckpasser along with Carpe Diem. Carpe Diem is coming off the layoff and wagering on layoff horses is a risky strategy. Diving Rod has the Buckpasser and conduit mare Dazzling in tail female but this might be this distance limit for most Tapit horses. He couldn't beat OK taking a wide trip so I'm skeptical will have more success today. Still a potential exotics play. Ami's Flatter gets the juice and blinkers today and could be considered a live longshot. This one too has the Buckpasser and the Secretariat conduit mare Bill and Coo in tail female.

My wagers might be constructed at the last minute but I'll probably bet this to start.
Trifecta :2::3:/:3::4:/:1::3::4:
Saver win or W/P bet on :4:

The San Felipe appears to have the best contenders on paper. I'm not convinced Dortmund is the KY Winner but he's got the best speed in this field and cannot be ignored on top. Ocho3 and Lord Nelson have the Buckpasser and should be formidable foes here but Ocho is coming off a layoff and those types always give me caution. Bolo is the wildcard hailing from the Broom Flower line in tail female which has been hot in recent KY Derby races (I'll Have Another and Mine That Bird). Prospect Park appears to be an improving horse that could be in the exotics mix.

I'm thinking my first wager might look like this:
Trifecta :1::3:/:1::2::3:/:1::2::3::7:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Gotham - Pass. Don't see anybody beating El Kabeir who will go off at a ridiculous price.

TB Derby - Going against Ocean Knight and Carpe Diem in here. Going with Ami's Flatter and Danzig Moon on top with some Divining Rod and then some Great Stuff on the bottom of exotics. Obviously OK and CD will be in the mix.

San Felipe - I see Dortmund getting beat today. Gonna keep him out of the Exacta as well. Love Ocho Ocho Ocho along with Lord Nelson. Will be throwing Prospect Park and The Gomper in on exotics. Not sure what to do with Bolo and Sir Samson?

Wow. Could not have been more wrong about Dortmund and Ocho Ocho Ocho.

[PhantomOnTour]

Wow...I was counting on him to really push this pace to the point of destruction, and was tabbing the even running Ami's Flatter to get a big piece at a big price. Was even going to use late running Great Stuff on some tickets too.

Gotta retool my tickets now...still like Ami's Flatter to improve with Lasix and blinks, three works since the Sam Davis, like the figure pattern for his 3rd off the layoff try.
Did well to get 2nd behind a solid winner in Carpe Diem today.
I'll take it :ThmbUp: