Sitting on your wallet

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

When was the last time that you took the time to do all of the necessary handicapping work for the day and sat and made no bets, for whatever reason: no value, scratches of your selection(s) etc?

This is the second day in a row I am in this position of no wagers, not even an action dollar trying to follow the old adage of waiting for a wager that is worth a risk of my betting bank.

[Stillriledup]

I've gotten good at not spending a lot of time on races i might not play. I can glance over a race and get a good "Feel" if its a race that needs more time and effort spent handicapping. For me, i find the more i work on a race, the harder it is to skip.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I've gotten good at not spending a lot of time on races i might not play. I can glance over a race and get a good "Feel" if its a race that needs more time and effort spent handicapping. For me, i find the more i work on a race, the harder it is to skip.

Probably a common practice of the more you look at a race the better chance of betting. I follow the simple practice of using only a limited amount of factors as opposed to many for the purpose of quality wagers instead of quantity.

[whodoyoulike]

I wish I had your discipline and just as SRU stated I'm in the same camp. After several "no bets" you'll realize skipping the race wasn't such a bad idea. I'm trying to avoid action bets (just not very well). They just eat away at your BR.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I wish I had your discipline and just as SRU stated I'm in the same camp. After several "no bets" you'll realize skipping the race wasn't such a bad idea. I'm trying to avoid action bets (just not very well). They just eat away at your BR.

There is always the method of writing down the "why's" of every bet you make. list the edge, or perceived edge that you have for wagering on this race. This can force a change away from the guilty throw-away bets that add up to significance in the long term.

[Stillriledup]

For me, i look at almost every track and scan the card and look for "tipping points" that get me to look at a race further.

I'll add to this later on when i get a minute.

[Tom]

I can go days and never make a bet.
I probably bet 10% of the race I handicap.
Most races offer me no reason to play them.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I can go days and never make a bet.
I probably bet 10% of the race I handicap.
Most races offer me no reason to play them.

Tom,

You have what they referred to in William Murrays book TIP ON A DEAD CRAB as "an iron ass", the ability to sit and wait for the right spot...a great asset against the iron mutual.

[whodoyoulike]

I can go days and never make a bet.
I probably bet 10% of the race I handicap.
Most races offer me no reason to play them.

I also can go days without making a bet as long as I don't handicap the race. But, passing a race I've handicapped is a big victory for me.

How do you do it?

[sammy the sage]

I can go days and never make a bet.
I probably bet 10% of the race I handicap.
Most races offer me no reason to play them.

I would BET on THAT... :lol: :faint:

but there's no way for anyone to BOOK or prove it....alas... ;)

[DeltaLover]

When was the last time that you took the time to do all of the necessary handicapping work for the day and sat and made no bets, for whatever reason: no value, scratches of your selection(s) etc?



Never

The only reasons that can make me passing any race I have already spend more than three minutes handicapping, are as follows:


The race was canceled or became a match race due to many scratches

I am broke and cannot immediately reload my bankroll..


I consider tight betting a very weak approach and always try to maintain the optimal ratio in my tight – loose and aggressive – passive scales, which is far from skipping a lot of races or conservative bet sizing...

[HUSKER55]

THERE are times when I just can not get the "feel" of the race no matter what I do. When that happens I add a horse to my show parlay. When my $2 becomes $6 of profit I start over. I start looking at what held and what didn't. Sometimes I find patterns and sometimes......I head for the bar,...muttering to myself about being an idiot trying to justify an action bet.

yepper,.....doc wants me to stop drinking... :D

[burnsy]

I do it for weeks at a time during the winter months. The last cards I played were Holy Bull day and Fountain of Youth day. Even when I am actively playing I usually avoid the first 3 to 5 races on any card, sometimes more. Don't even care for the 2yo races on Breeders Cup day.My theory is that the best horses run truer to form and that works for me. I don't even bother with cheaper tracks and never follow them. Maiden races are also a big NO for me. The ones with first time starters are the worst of them all unless you have some sort of "special" info. Even then you don't know who is going to freak out before the start and sometimes that affects your horse by just being near it.

People come on here claiming they can "beat" every race or that they "love" the maiden races and win all the time betting them....personally, unless I see it done myself, I feel its BS. I have had my best scores on horses with a proven record, that run for decent purses and conditions. The highest claimers, allowance and stakes horses run similar races every time unless there is a problem.....that's gambling. But those cheap ass horses can look like Hercules one week and get entered lame the next. The other factor is a field of talented horses is more competitive with overlay horses that get overlooked. That's my bread and butter. Even doing this its extremely difficult so these people with "magic formulas" and "winning all the time, on every kind of race" must be better than I am............. :p

[Aner]

The only discipline I use is to skip races with 6 or fewer entries. Friends will sometimes ask me to bet my best bet of the day for them. If I knew which horse that was, I'd be a millionaire. Sometimes the most unlikely race is your best race.

If you have a positive ROI, the more races you bet, the better your bottom line. If your ROI is negative, restricting bets is good strategy. Your best chance in Las Vegas is a one time gamble with your entire bankroll on an almost 50/50 bet.

[traynor]

I do it for weeks at a time during the winter months. The last cards I played were Holy Bull day and Fountain of Youth day. Even when I am actively playing I usually avoid the first 3 to 5 races on any card, sometimes more. Don't even care for the 2yo races on Breeders Cup day.My theory is that the best horses run truer to form and that works for me. I don't even bother with cheaper tracks and never follow them. Maiden races are also a big NO for me. The ones with first time starters are the worst of them all unless you have some sort of "special" info. Even then you don't know who is going to freak out before the start and sometimes that affects your horse by just being near it.

People come on here claiming they can "beat" every race or that they "love" the maiden races and win all the time betting them....personally, unless I see it done myself, I feel its BS. I have had my best scores on horses with a proven record, that run for decent purses and conditions. The highest claimers, allowance and stakes horses run similar races every time unless there is a problem.....that's gambling. But those cheap ass horses can look like Hercules one week and get entered lame the next. The other factor is a field of talented horses is more competitive with overlay horses that get overlooked. That's my bread and butter. Even doing this its extremely difficult so these people with "magic formulas" and "winning all the time, on every kind of race" must be better than I am............. :p

Well said. I think many (if not most) forum postings should be taken with a healthy dollop of skepticism--especially those which seem crafted more from the standpoint of impression management than of describing reality.

It is probably foolish to assume that anyone who is "doing well" would have some overwhelming compulsion to blurt out the details of whatever tactics or strategies he or she uses to "prove" such to others, and such offers of "proof" are much more likely to come from the rainbow-chaser side of the fence.

It often seems that those most inclined to give advice are those most in need of it.

[cutchemist42]

Not a whole card, but I skipped two races on Hou's Saturday card. Hou has actually done a pretty bad job on their stakes, so much chalk in them. This was not due to scratches, just not getting the prices I liked.

[classhandicapper]

For me, skipping races is the easiest part of the game. I also think it's the best way to give yourself at least some chance of winning over the long term.

Even if you are a mediocre handicapper overall, if you have even one somewhat unique insight that is not generally reflected on the board, you will give yourself a shot at winning if you stick with the small percentage of races where that insight is significant and skip the rest.

[1st time lasix]

Over time.....I have gravitated toward the lower take out pick fours, pick fives and carryover pick sixes -which means that i tend to try to gain an opinion on nearly every race on the card. That said....often I do not bet the races individually or on a "vertical" basis. ******But if i have a handicapped an A rated contender that is being ignored or presents an overlay in my opinion...i will then try to key that horse. *****Another thing i do is related to hedging. Say I am sitting on a potential big score having sucessfully used a longer shot that was likely not used in those pk 4's, 5's or 6's that did win.....I might start to look at the final double or pick 3 remaining on the day's card with some of the horses I no longer have "alive" on the ticket that is still going. I realize that I am not going to win every day i play with that bet small--win big para-mutual strategy. I am not a grinder. There is no question I am striving for "signers." Experience tells you that what they might "will pay." The hedgings allows me to possibly gain back my original capital bankroll outlay ---should I be mistaken in the later races. I use the horses that may no longer be alive. which i considered before the sequence started. In races i have a very strong opinion I single or have two contenders. In races i percieve as chaotic....i spread.

[thaskalos]

Pass races...or seek the friendship of an accommodating banker.

[whodoyoulike]

Well said. I think many (if not most) forum postings should be taken with a healthy dollop of skepticism--especially those which seem crafted more from the standpoint of impression management than of describing reality.

It is probably foolish to assume that anyone who is "doing well" would have some overwhelming compulsion to blurt out the details of whatever tactics or strategies he or she uses to "prove" such to others, and such offers of "proof" are much more likely to come from the rainbow-chaser side of the fence.

It often seems that those most inclined to give advice are those most in need of it.

Is this your advice to everyone responding?

I thought the OP was frustrated because he had handicapped races and because of his criteria for betting races wasn't being met. He's actually turning an admired discipline (at least for me) into a negative flaw.

Now, I think there a difference between sitting on your wallet and not having the courage to go along with your sound handicapping selection(s).

[thaskalos]

Discipline is a must in this game...but what some players call "discipline", is really FEAR in disguise. Discipline doesn't just mean "passing races"; it also means attacking playable races in the originally planned way...and sticking to our game plan...even when the tide turns against us. THAT'S the part of "discipline" that's really hard to instill...

[biggestal99]

I do it for weeks at a time during the winter months. The last cards I played were Holy Bull day and Fountain of Youth day. Even when I am actively playing I usually avoid the first 3 to 5 races on any card, sometimes more. Don't even care for the 2yo races on Breeders Cup day.My theory is that the best horses run truer to form and that works for me. I don't even bother with cheaper tracks and never follow them. Maiden races are also a big NO for me. The ones with first time starters are the worst of them all unless you have some sort of "special" info. Even then you don't know who is going to freak out before the start and sometimes that affects your horse by just being near it.

People come on here claiming they can "beat" every race or that they "love" the maiden races and win all the time betting them....personally, unless I see it done myself, I feel its BS. I have had my best scores on horses with a proven record, that run for decent purses and conditions. The highest claimers, allowance and stakes horses run similar races every time unless there is a problem.....that's gambling. But those cheap ass horses can look like Hercules one week and get entered lame the next. The other factor is a field of talented horses is more competitive with overlay horses that get overlooked. That's my bread and butter. Even doing this its extremely difficult so these people with "magic formulas" and "winning all the time, on every kind of race" must be better than I am............. :p

My best scores this year have come on droppers in mc races.

Allan

[JohnGalt1]

I only went to my home track for 11 days this summer. Three days I handicapped entire cards and stayed home.

I handicapped entire Tampa card for Sunday 3/1 and didn't make a bet. I pass many whole cards.

It is much easier to pass races at home than at the track, but will watch many races in a row while sitting outside watching live races.

I bring a magazine to read to avoid boredom.

I don't make action bets. If a bet doesn't qualify for a full amount I don't bet less on it to be in action.

There's always another race.

[traynor]

Discipline is a must in this game...but what some players call "discipline", is really FEAR in disguise. Discipline doesn't just mean "passing races"; it also means attacking playable races in the originally planned way...and sticking to our game plan...even when the tide turns against us. THAT'S the part of "discipline" that's really hard to instill...

I'm not really sure that requires discipline. If one wagers for profit (rather than for excitement, amusement, or a way to pass time), strategy is part of the package. Implementing that strategy is a requisite to win. An ongoing struggle with one's self is both boring and unnecessary. If one wants to win, one must develop a strategy that is profitable, and implement it. Emotions--up, down, or crossways--have nothing to do with it.

[thaskalos]

I'm not really sure that requires discipline. If one wagers for profit (rather than for excitement, amusement, or a way to pass time), strategy is part of the package. Implementing that strategy is a requisite to win. An ongoing struggle with one's self is both boring and unnecessary. If one wants to win, one must develop a strategy that is profitable, and implement it. Emotions--up, down, or crossways--have nothing to do with it.
Developing a strategy is one thing...but properly implementing it is another.

[thaskalos]

The fat man knows what he needs to do to lose weight...and may even come up with an effective weight-losing strategy. But the odds are that he'll remain fat.

[traynor]

I think there is more than a little similarity between race analysis for profit and other types of combat. A quote from Dune, on the lack of value in emotions:

"You are an apt pupil, none better, but I've warned you that not even in play do you let a man inside your guard with death in his hand."


"I guess I'm not in the mood for it today," Paul said.

"Mood?" Halleck's voice betrayed his outrage even through the shield's filtering. "What has mood to do with it? You fight when the necessity arises - no matter the mood! Mood's a thing for cattle or making love or playing the baliset. It's not for fighting."

From Frank Herbert's Dune.

[traynor]

The fat man knows what he needs to do to lose weight...and may even come up with an effective weight-losing strategy. But the odds are that he'll remain fat.

Indeed. The key point is not what the fat man knows he needs to do, but what the fat man wants to do. It is like getting on a bus to Poughkeepsie. The bus trip to Poughkeepsie is only the surface that conceals the fact that one did NOT go to Lackawanna. Or Miami, for that matter.

It is not so much what people do that matters as it is what people conceal by doing what they do that matters.

[traveler]

Never

The only reasons that can make me passing any race I have already spend more than three minutes handicapping, are as follows:


The race was canceled or became a match race due to many scratches

I am broke and cannot immediately reload my bankroll..


I consider tight betting a very weak approach and always try to maintain the optimal ratio in my tight – loose and aggressive – passive scales, which is far from skipping a lot of races or conservative bet sizing...

I would hope you aren't "broke" too often or you should be passing a lot more races - just a thought...

[DeltaLover]

I would hope you aren't "broke" too often or you should be passing a lot more races - just a thought...

I have been there (many times) in the past and I have to admit that it is possible to get there again in the future...

Been broke is one of the realistic states of the gambler's financial life (indeed the most probable one) and whoever plays the horses and does not accept it, is just a scared square who tries to pass his time believing in silly theories about profitable black boxes and money management!

[TonyMLake]

When was the last time that you took the time to do all of the necessary handicapping work for the day and sat and made no bets, for whatever reason: no value, scratches of your selection(s) etc?

This is the second day in a row I am in this position of no wagers, not even an action dollar trying to follow the old adage of waiting for a wager that is worth a risk of my betting bank.

Well, believe it or not, this is pretty common for me. Since I often purchase data files for every race running "fast and firm" on a day, I *usually* find some value... but I'd say somewhere between one in five and one in a dozen track days for me are a total bust.

It doesn't really require as much discipline as you might think - I plan my bets beforehand too, assuming multiple tote values then making the plays as late as possible using whatever bets were laid out. If there's nothing the night before on paper, I might not even look at the tracks the next day.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Well, believe it or not, this is pretty common for me. Since I often purchase data files for every race running "fast and firm" on a day, I *usually* find some value... but I'd say somewhere between one in five and one in a dozen track days for me are a total bust.

It doesn't really require as much discipline as you might think - I plan my bets beforehand too, assuming multiple tote values then making the plays as late as possible using whatever bets were laid out. If there's nothing the night before on paper, I might not even look at the tracks the next day.

You have a plan and you stick to it-that in itself is a big plus.

[TonyMLake]

You have a plan and you stick to it-that in itself is a big plus.

For me, it's survival. I simply can't "come out up" any other way.

I admit, yes, there's some feeling, intuition, and chance in this game, and that's a big part of what makes it fun. But for me, it's 99% method and 1% intuition. And most of my method involves knowing what bets NOT to make.

Hell, I don't really even know what the other folks are doing if it ain't that. "Sitting it out" may be my only true weapon!

[TonyMLake]

For me, skipping races is the easiest part of the game. I also think it's the best way to give yourself at least some chance of winning over the long term.

Even if you are a mediocre handicapper overall, if you have even one somewhat unique insight that is not generally reflected on the board, you will give yourself a shot at winning if you stick with the small percentage of races where that insight is significant and skip the rest.
Ok, ^^ this ^^ is what I was trying to say, said perhaps a bit more eloquently.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

For me, it's survival. I simply can't "come out up" any other way.

I admit, yes, there's some feeling, intuition, and chance in this game, and that's a big part of what makes it fun. But for me, it's 99% method and 1% intuition. And most of my method involves knowing what bets NOT to make.

Hell, I don't really even know what the other folks are doing if it ain't that. "Sitting it out" may be my only true weapon!

There is a lot to be said with the ability and willingness to make the best bets and avoid any careless or weak wagers. the philosophy of not wanting more good bets, but less bad ones.

[traveler]

I have been there (many times) in the past and I have to admit that it is possible to get there again in the future...

Been broke is one of the realistic states of the gambler's financial life (indeed the most probable one) and whoever plays the horses and does not accept it, is just a scared square who tries to pass his time believing in silly theories about profitable black boxes and money management!

Well I suppose that is one way of generalizing what others may or may not be doing. Good luck and I think you have posted some interesting and worthwhile reads on this board.

[traynor]

I have been there (many times) in the past and I have to admit that it is possible to get there again in the future...

Been broke is one of the realistic states of the gambler's financial life (indeed the most probable one) and whoever plays the horses and does not accept it, is just a scared square who tries to pass his time believing in silly theories about profitable black boxes and money management!

If--and only if--one engages in wagering for some motive other than profit. When profit is the motive--not thrills, excitement, rushes, making scores, or emotional compensation for lacks in other areas of one's life--the notion that going broke is inevitable is absurd. It is no more inevitable in wagering than it is in any other business endeavor. It only becomes so when the pursuit of (whatever the compulsives gain from wagering) exceeds the value (for that person) of the pursuit of profit.

It is not a matter of "passing races." It is a simple matter of choosing to only wager when one has an edge, and ignoring non-profit investments. Nothing complex. No edge, no profit, no bet. It is really that simple.

[traynor]

Well, believe it or not, this is pretty common for me. Since I often purchase data files for every race running "fast and firm" on a day, I *usually* find some value... but I'd say somewhere between one in five and one in a dozen track days for me are a total bust.

It doesn't really require as much discipline as you might think - I plan my bets beforehand too, assuming multiple tote values then making the plays as late as possible using whatever bets were laid out. If there's nothing the night before on paper, I might not even look at the tracks the next day.

I used to make all online wagers early--usually all the races on a given card before the first race. It worked well, because my projections were fairly accurate. But all the talk of last-minute go-no go decisions (many on this forum) made me think it might be useful to do otherwise. More time-consuming, but possibly more profitable.

One of the most useful results of that investigation was the knowledge that the concept of "I-am-so-brilliant-I-see-things-in-this-race-no-one-else-does" can have a negative effect on profits. Specifically, I have found increased profits may often result from avoiding races in which the last minute odds are too high, rather than too low.

Without devolving into meaningless prattle about self-confidence and related topics, I suggest a study of the above may be illuminating. All it takes is the realization that one is not on a hero's quest, but only tilting at windmills. "Aggressive wagering" is only rational when one has an advantage. Without that advantage, all the self-confidence and aggressive wagering in the world does little more than accelerate the erosion of available resources. Maybe the whales know something I don't. Maybe the wisdom of crowds is real. Maybe there is a temporary bias that others see that I am unaware of. I dunno. I don't care. I am a bettor, not a theorist. All I want is the money.

I get a bigger share of that money when I get past the "I-am-the-sharpest-tack-in-the-box" syndrome and pay more attention when the odds on my selection go above a specific point. That point is as easily calculated as one's probability of winning a particular wagering scenario.

[ReplayRandall]

"Aggressive wagering" is only rational when one has an advantage. Without that advantage, all the self-confidence and aggressive wagering in the world does little more than accelerate the erosion of available resources.
I'm pretty much on board with most of what you state, however, all you are doing with any verified edge is simplifying, and when you do that you must necessarily become even more conservative. Aggressive or "over-betting" is a real problem on the other end of the wagering spectrum, that is constantly at work towards bankroll ruin. The key is securing bankroll balance, and the implementation of something in the form of a "Bayesian Kelly Criterion" form of wagering, which keeps the proper balance between being too conservative and over-betting, thus maximizing profit while simultaneously reducing bankroll risk......

[traynor]

I'm pretty much on board with most of what you state, however, all you are doing with any verified edge is simplifying, and when you do that you must necessarily become even more conservative. Aggressive or "over-betting" is a real problem on the other end of the wagering spectrum, that is constantly at work towards bankroll ruin. The key is securing bankroll balance, and the implementation of something in the form of a "Bayesian Kelly Criterion" form of wagering, which keeps the proper balance between being too conservative and over-betting, thus maximizing profit while simultaneously reducing bankroll risk......

The theory is sound, but application is not as easily categorized. Pretty much everything in horse racing considered data--on which decisions are made--by definition is an imperfect and incomplete description of a past event. The illusion of past events being a perfect template to predict future outcomes is pervasive. For some (perhaps many) it approaches the state of "certainty" that the future will exactly replicate the past, and scenarios derived from the past can perfectly predict the future.

Implementation of Bayesian Kelly Criterion assumes explicit information that rarely exists in the real world--until the results of a new set of races are declared official. Specifically, a statistical advantage that existed last week/month/year may be totally out of whack when applied to today's races. Regardless of how carefully calculated, last week's advantage does NOT equate to this week's advantage.

[Nitro]

If--and only if--one engages in wagering for some motive other than profit. When profit is the motive--not thrills, excitement, rushes, making scores, or emotional compensation for lacks in other areas of one's life--the notion that going broke is inevitable is absurd. It is no more inevitable in wagering than it is in any other business endeavor. It only becomes so when the pursuit of (whatever the compulsives gain from wagering) exceeds the value (for that person) of the pursuit of profit.

It is not a matter of "passing races." It is a simple matter of choosing to only wager when one has an edge, and ignoring non-profit investments. Nothing complex. No edge, no profit, no bet. It is really that simple.I’m in 100% agreement with your comments. (Good post!) You’ve made a clear distinction between playing for profit versus anything else. I can safely say that in all my years of playing no matter which selection process I’ve used I have never gone broke making wagers. I also don’t consider myself a gambler.

However, I do pass races when they don’t offer the value I need to stay ahead. I have a known hit frequency and profit margin and to stay within those guidelines I will only play races that offer sufficient value. This way win or lose I’m getting my best bang for the buck.

I only play on a race-by-race basis, and I’ll by-pass all pick-what-ever type bets. I don’t like to be forced into playing any race in a sequence that offers little scrutiny or comes up with a potentially short priced winner. I don’t look for any type of edge because by betting properly and hedging correctly I can usually overcome most irregular finishes as long as my picks are in the mix.

I certainly don’t envy those that have to waste all that time handicapping only to find they’re in a “no play” situation so often. You’d think that those who play regularly would be able to look for and focus on only those known races where they’re more successful. But maybe because all those races are being passed explains why they have the time to post so many comments. :D
.

[DeltaLover]

Since the discussion (naturally) got to bankroll, I would like to ask how big you think its size should be... Assuming you want to bet professionally, earning an average salary (let's say $100K net profit per year ), how big of a bankroll you think is needed?
Also how large your yearly handle need to be ?

[baconswitchfarm]

Without devolving into meaningless prattle



:lol: :lol: :lol:

[thaskalos]

Since the discussion (naturally) got to bankroll, I would like to ask how big you think its size should be... Assuming you want to bet professionally, earning an average salary (let's say $100K net profit per year ), how big of a bankroll you think is needed?
Also how large your yearly handle need to be ?
It depends on your ROI. If you are the sort of horseplayer who gets a 20% ROI while betting on every race on the card...you can make a $100,000 yearly income with a starting bankroll of $500.

[DeltaLover]

It depends on your ROI. If you are the sort of horseplayer who gets a 20% ROI while betting on every race on the card...you can make a $100,000 yearly income with a starting bankroll of $500.

Hmm.. That's a good point that I have never figured it out before Thask (maybe because I do not have a 20% ROI)??? :D :D

[FrankieFigs]

Discipline is a must in this game...but what some players call "discipline", is really FEAR in disguise. Discipline doesn't just mean "passing races"; it also means attacking playable races in the originally planned way...and sticking to our game plan...even when the tide turns against us. THAT'S the part of "discipline" that's really hard to instill...

I thought passing races was hard. Then I ran into this. I have cost myself more money deviating from a plan than betting a marginal race when I didn't have a rock solid opinion. :bang:

[green80]

If you truly have any advantage over the game, the more wagers you make, not the fewer, will lead to a larger bankroll. The player with a 5% ROI that makes 500 bets is far ahead of the player with a 10% Roi that makes 100 bets.

[MJC922]

Since the discussion (naturally) got to bankroll, I would like to ask how big you think its size should be... Assuming you want to bet professionally, earning an average salary (let's say $100K net profit per year ), how big of a bankroll you think is needed?
Also how large your yearly handle need to be ?

Some key questions, are you living out of the bankroll with no other income? Are you able to have a positive ROI by taking on every track or just one track, how large are the pools etc. I think there's a big misunderstanding with a lot of folks that if you have an ROI in the 10% range you're somehow destined to or should by now be a millionaire or some such. People need to do the math, start with 8k, put it into excel, a few bets per day at maybe 20% ROI, balance it with sensible losses or breakeven on other races get it to about +10%, see where that gets you with one track per day and living expenses of a couple grand per month.

You can quite literally triple or quadruple a bankroll and finish the year with not a penny more in the bank. Now if you have other money coming in, trust fund SS whatever, it's different.... then you have the 8k and it just keeps taking off. Must be nice for those that do. That's when you get to sit on the sidelines and take potshots at bombs because the checks in the mail one way or another. :)

[Nitro]

If you truly have any advantage over the game, the more wagers you make, not the fewer, will lead to a larger bankroll. The player with a 5% ROI that makes 500 bets is far ahead of the player with a 10% Roi that makes 100 bets.
This statement is only TRUE if both players are betting the same amount per race. One player could make a single wager with more at stake or even equal in total $ amount to these players mentioned and realize more profit then either one.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Have to say this thread has developed into some real interesting dialogue. The skill sets many of you have attained is fascinating. The necessity of passing races waiting for the edge for the majority of players is evident.

[green80]

This statement is only TRUE if both players are betting the same amount per race. One player could make a single wager with more at stake or even equal in total $ amount to these players mentioned and realize more profit then either one.

It gets to the point where, at most tracks, if one makes a large enough bet any edge he has will vanish. The big bettor can only bet so much and his overlay becomes an underlay. This amount is a lot less than most people think, especially on longer priced horses.

[Nitro]

It gets to the point where, at most tracks, if one makes a large enough bet any edge he has will vanish. The big bettor can only bet so much and his overlay becomes an underlay. This amount is a lot less than most people think, especially on longer priced horses.

Again TRUE only if you quantify the SIZE of the BETTING POOLS at what might be considered MOST tracks. Totally UNTRUE when playing the tracks in Hong Kong. If only more U.S. tracks would follow the simple lead that Hong Kong offers: Big fields, Big money, Lots of pertinent FREE information (including the actual Weight of each horse and a history recent ailments), and Best of all Lots of solid betting opportunities! :ThmbUp:
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[lamboguy]

Again TRUE only if you quantify the SIZE of the BETTING POOLS at what might be considered MOST tracks. Totally UNTRUE when playing the tracks in Hong Kong. If only more U.S. tracks would follow the simple lead that Hong Kong offers: Big fields, Big money, Lots of pertinent FREE information (including the actual Weight of each horse and a history recent ailments), and Best of all Lots of solid betting opportunities! :ThmbUp:
.the racing there amazes me almost as much as how good you pick those races. i love seeing you hit all those races almost every time 9000 miles away!

[Nitro]

the racing there amazes me almost as much as how good you pick those races. i love seeing you hit all those races almost every time 9000 miles away!
Thanks Lamboguy! And I’m sure you probably feel the same way I do about having the opportunity to get involved in what many consider to be the highest level of racing in the world. Say what you will about the shortcomings atTVG. As far as I’m concerned they’ve rekindled the excitement I felt after scoring my first big triple back in the days in NY when triples paid what supers pay today. I also enjoy being able to share some of that experience here in the wee hours of the morning when most players are only dreaming about big scores.
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[traynor]

I think some prefer to play the role of the big fish in the little pond (while endlessly complaining about how difficult it is to make a profit wagering), rather than getting out into the real world and actually competing with their peers. Hong Kong is the big time for horse racing, and--at least currently--those with real skill in race analysis are often amply rewarded.