Worthiness

[Valuist]

Crist wrote the other day how he's rooted against all those horses since 1997 who were going for the Triple Crown in the Belmont.....saying they weren't worthy. I'd have to agree. I don't think any of those horses in the past 7 years who were trying to get the Triple Crown were worthy.

Ironically, I think one was worthy, but he stubbed his toe in the 2001 Derby (Point Given) and missed his chance. No question he was a far better horse than Monarchos.

1997-Silver Charm- a solid horse but he shouldn't have won the Preakness. Touch Gold had a horrible trip and proved he truly was better in the Belmont.
1998-Real Quiet-I believe he lost a race at a New Mexico track as a 2YO; he also couldn't beat stablemate Indian Charlie in the SA Derby. Close to worthy but not quite
1999-Charismatic??Pleeeeeze. This horse ran for a 62500 tag in Feb of his 3YO year. He took advantage of a bad crop. He would've littered the Triple Crown list.
2002-War Emblem. Too one-dimensional. His backers point out to his rough trip at the start of the Belmont but if he was worthy he could've rated off the pace. Sorry.
2003-Funny Cide- I've rehashed the Empire Maker/FC argument enough times not to go thru the details. Needless to say, both had clear trips in the Belmont and one won it, the other didn't.

As racing fans, we're fortunate none of those horses won the Triple Crown. It should be reserved for the truly special horses; not the horses who've run for 62,500 or at some New Mexico track.

This year the horse IS worthy, IMO. I will be rooting for him. He's unbeaten, he's run at numerous tracks and distances. I don't care if his Beyer in the Derby was 107; I believe many horses do what they have to to win. I also think he will get a big Beyer for the Preakness. The speed figure is not everything, anyways.
In terms of measuring greatness, the record should supersede the speed figure.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Valuist
2002-War Emblem. Too one-dimensional. His backers point out to his rough trip at the start of the Belmont but if he was worthy he could've rated off the pace. Sorry.

I do believe he was one dimensional.......but if I recall he had the best Early and Late Numbers in the Derby when he won it.

It should be interesting to see how his first crop runs.......I doubt we will see any over here though.........

[Valuist]

There was something in the DRF recently about his breeding problems. Only covered a small number of mares last year but has been better this year. They're letting him "choose" his mares.

That late speed number from the 2002 Derby for him may be deceptive. Lots of times when you see a quality horse loose thru ok but not destructive fractions, they just draw off in the stretch.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Valuist
There was something in the DRF recently about his breeding problems. Only covered a small number of mares last year but has been better this year. They're letting him "choose" his mares.

That late speed number from the 2002 Derby for him may be deceptive. Lots of times when you see a quality horse loose thru ok but not destructive fractions, they just draw off in the stretch.

Ok........ I should have been more descriptive.....he had the best early and late going into the Derby.........from his race in the Ill. Derby.......... But I don't think you could have ever trained that horse to rate..........he was too smart. I think by Belmont time he figured out the game and didn't want to play anymore.

I think he is the same way in Japan in the breeding shed. I get the feeling he is just obstinate........he isn't going to do anything he doesn't want to do ........

[cj]

I'm pretty sure Seattle Slew was one dimensional ;).

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I'm pretty sure Seattle Slew was one dimensional ;).

I caught a nice one in the first at HOL today at 15-1.......
she was out of Seattle Slew.........4 yr old maiden who was off a long time.........and came back a month or so back to run 2nd. 2nd start back today broke maiden in 8th race total........looked pretty damn good. couldn't believe they let her go that long.......

Still lists the stud fee at 300k in the form..........there won't be many more of those out there..........it was kind of cool to see it..........

[Valuist]

I may be mistaken since I haven't seen charts for Slew's Preakness or Derby but I believe he didn't go wire to wire in one of them. Oh yeah, he had the undefeated thing going.....War Emblem was just a little short on that.

[Figman]

'SLEW was 2nd a head back at the first call in the DERBY; in the PREAKNESS, 'SLEW had the lead but was a half-length behind at the second call.

[PaceAdvantage]

I have to disagree about Charismatic. Compared to Real Quiet, Charismatic was MUCH MORE worthy of the title "Triple Crown Champion" in my opinion. I don't care that he once ran for a tag...that wasn't his fault. Makes absolutely no difference....

In any event, over the last 15 years, in my heart, the only horse I believe was TRULY WORTHY of the Triple Crown was Sunday Silence. I will admit to rooting hard for Funny Cide, but that was more because of his "NY" connection, and the fact that I hated Empire Maker.

[alysheba88]

I think Silver Charm was totally worthy. Was the best of a great three year old crop. Was good as an older horse too.

I had Touch Gold big in the Belmont too. But he was not better than Silver Charm and again SC was very worthy in my mind

[Valuist]

Alysheba-

I assume you bet Touch Gold because you thought he should've won the Preakness. And he did end up winning the Belmont. I don't think he even ran in the Derby. Are you factoring in Silver Charm's accomplishments as a 4YO? Because in the two TC races they ran against each other I don't see how you could say SC was better than TG.

[alysheba88]

Yes Touch Gold had a horrible trip in the Preakness and that was part of it. I do not think it was a foregone conclusion that he would have won the Preakness. The price was a bigger part of it (for the Belmont).


And another big part of it was that was Silver Charms third straight TC race. That cannot be understated in my opinion. All of the EM fans forget that their horse was witing in the weeds fully rested for the Belmont with everything in his favor. Touch Gold's situation was a little difference in that he ran in the Preakness but he did not have to experience the grueling experience of the Derby. If he had I do not believe he would have had the energy to have passed Silver Charm.

By comnparison in 87 Bet Twice beat Alysheba fair and square (and the same with Easy Goer and Sunday Silence). In those cases both horses ran in all three legs.

As a three year old I think Silver Charm had the far more impressive resume than Touch Gold.

[Valuist]

Alysheba-

I agree missing the Derby does help. But I would've liked to have seen a little more separation between Silver Charm and the rest of the pack. I will give him credit for toughness.

Do you think Rock Hard Ten has a chance to turn the tables? He fits that "missing the Derby" profile; physically, he reminds me of Point Given and Easy Goer, both massive horses who were suited to the wide sweeping turns and the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont. I'm not saying he's as good as them, but I think he will definitely cut into that 11 length margin. He lost a lot of ground racing wide on both turns. He's also so lightly raced we don't know how good he could turn out to be yet.

[alysheba88]

Valuist, I know what you are saying about separation from the pack, but I also think it was an exceptional crop of three year olds. With Captain Bodgit and Free house too. All the TC races were run (beyerwise) above the average if I am not mistaken. That and the 87 crop were the best in my memory.

Had been less high on RHT than others but I was impressed with his performance. I think its logical to assume he will improve off that. How much he cuts into that margin am not sure.

I think Tapit should run well at Belmont too

[Valuist]

Definitely agree the 87 crop was the deepest 3YO crop in the past 20 years. I'd put 1984 and 1997 up there also.