Ky Derby Pool 3 Stats Guide

[luvalab]

I was a little late getting this put together, but it includes a table with past winners and exacta finishers, odds, payouts and the number of horses to make to the Derby each year. Also, I write about my strategy for the exacta in the future wager and how that has played out each year since they added the exacta in 2009. The link below will take you to my website where you can download the guide in .pdf format. It's free, enjoy!

Guide Link:
Kentucky Derby Pool 3 Stats Guide (http://www.bigdaystats.com/free_guide_download.php)

[bgbootha]

I was going to put up my own pool 3 thread, but it makes more sense to keep them in the same thread. The more info we have the better.
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http://www.horsebettingdirect.com/wp-content/uploads/Pool3Pedigree.jpg

I listed out my top 6 Derby horses personally earlier in the week. This is a little different take on some of the same horses. Fact is young three year olds are a tough bunch to crack, some of the best info we can gather on how they will perform in a couple of months is going to be based on the pedigree they bring to the table. Here is a look at the contenders in pool 3 based on their HBD pedigree numbers.

*HBD Pedigree numbers take into account the distance, style, surface and expected time form of a given race, these are based on the Derby distance of 1¼ mile, on the Churchill Fast Dirt during an average pace scenario Kentucky Derby.

When looking at the futures pool, there is some key ingredients to think about when looking for value. (And don’t forget that’s all I am doing, here, looking for value) Number 1, can this horse WIN the Kentucky Derby? There are horses that I have liked in the past in the run up to the Kentucky Derby (Trinniberg for instance), but had no real shot at winning the Debry. Number 2 what is the likely hood of the horse making the gate. Remember, a good number of these horses in pool 3 will be losing bets well before May 2nd. If they don’t make the gate, they can’t pay off as winners. Last year I had a couple of nice sized futures on Hoppertunity and when he scratched, so did my bankroll. It will likely take 23+ points to find the field of 20 in May. Some horses who are in pool 3 already have the points needed to qualify, those horses at a good price automatically find some quality value.

Since we have started using this number (4 years now) no horse has won the derby with a negative HBD pedigree figure. California Chrome was the lowest with a score of +1, while Orb was the highest winner in the same time period with a figure of +9. Going back a little further we can’t get exact figures, but looking back the best we can only Mine that Bird would have produced a negative pedigree number since 2000.

At the top of the list may be a surprise with KHOZAN, a horse that at this time doesn’t have a single point in the prep schedule and a horse that has yet to even run in stakes race. This horse is impressive in his only two outings, putting up two Brisnet speed figures over 100 (103/101) and winning his last race by more than 12 lengths after a tough break out of the starting gate. That being said, it’s tough to find value in a horse that is currently at 12-1 in pool 3 that hasn’t ran against quality competition yet. This is a horse that may find value in the crazy idea of the exacta pool in pool 3 though.

Tied for first is LORD NELSON who also has a +12 pedigree rating for the Derby and has also shown some flash on the track. This is a horse that has one every other race he has ran including a very impressive win in the 6f speakeasy at Santa Anita and a win in the San Vincente at 7f. He had a tough Kentucky Jockey Club outing on the Churchill track that is a little bit of a concern, but that race was a tough race for all the horses in there and I think we can look at that as a toss.

A couple of the horses that jump out to me on the bottom of my list are two horses that I put in my top 6 last week. FAR RIGHT’s score of -12 is a little scary and quite frankly will pull me off of placing any money on him in the futures pool in pool 3. Even sitting at 33-1, I think this number is big enough in the wrong direction to scare me away here. The other is DORTMUND who’s undefeated record is impressive, but when I wrote about him last week, I questioned the fields that he was facing and his ability to take those impressive wins to better races in the coming weeks. Both of these horses would will likely fall off my derby watch list due to the pedigree numbers here.

So now the question is where will my Pool 3 money go? OCHO OCHO OCHO will see a nice chunk of it, I loved him coming into this discussion, his +7 pedigree number is just where I would want to see it, and his current price in the pool is sitting at a nice 26-1. Some quality value looking at us here. INTERNATIONAL STAR is still my top choice AND more importantly he already has enough points to get into the gates in Kentucky. The fact that we can get the current point leader with 71 points at 23-1 (currently) in the pool is crazy. Not sure how I can pass up a bet here. The other horse that has some value here is EL KABIER, now he wasn’t on my top 6 list, but he is sitting at 64-1 and really hasn’t done anything wrong thus far. He ran 2nd to an amazing run by FAR FROM OVER, but is coming off three consecutive strong finishes and likely already has enough points to find the field of 20.

In the end the futures pool is just about having fun, I will through together some Exacta combinations around and hope that something hits.

Good luck out there.

[letswastemoney]

No way on El Kabeir.

If he can't win with a huge head start on Far From Over, it's unlikely he will handle a Kentucky Derby field. It's not like they went that fast up front either. He should have put the field away.