Fountain of Youth Stakes @ Gulfstream

[Robert Fischer]

RACE 11 Gulfstream Park
-------------------------------
:1: Juan and Bina 20/1
:2: Bluegrass Singer 8/1
:3: Frammento 30/1
:4: Gorgeous Bird 6/1
:5: Itsaknockout 4/1
:6: Frosted 5/2
:7: Upstart 8/5
:8: Danny Boy 15/1

[GaryG]

:6: FROSTED - like him to turn the tables on perfect tripper Upstart

[Robert Fischer]

There are 3 win contenders who dominate the pie-chart.

:7: UPSTART - Worthy favorite as far as top ranking, but probably a slight underlay today in the long-term-wager department. Won the Holy Bull with actually the 8-post at today's same trip. Managed to overcome the wide trip last time, starting 3 wide on a comfortable pace, while clear on the outside. Won easily, stamping himself as a Derby contender. I'm wary of a this horse taking a short price, and still being in post-7 vs. 2 heavyweights.

:6: FROSTED - Clearly 2nd best in the HOLY BULL S. Frosted had to ask from the gate from the rail post, was denied the lead and space on the rail by the quicker 4-Bluegrass Singer, and then had to sit in a stressful spot. Showed some class by finishing gamely.

:5: ITSAKNOCKOUT - Up close to a hot pace last time in an Allowance Optional Claiming 3yo nw1x, finishing strong. I put him on my watch list following the performance. He has the value today.


:5:-:6:-:7:

Going to bet the :5: ITSAKNOCKOUT , and if UPSTART is bet down to 8/5ml or lower, I'll also use the :6: FROSTED on some tickets for the purpose of increasing my hit percentage.

[Stoleitbreezing]

There are 3 win contenders who dominate the pie-chart.

:7: UPSTART - Worthy favorite as far as top ranking, but probably a slight underlay today in the long-term-wager department. Won the Holy Bull with actually the 8-post at today's same trip. Managed to overcome the wide trip last time, starting 3 wide on a comfortable pace, while clear on the outside. Won easily, stamping himself as a Derby contender. I'm wary of a this horse taking a short price, and still being in post-7 vs. 2 heavyweights.

:6: FROSTED - Clearly 2nd best in the HOLY BULL S. Frosted had to ask from the gate from the rail post, was denied the lead and space on the rail by the quicker 4-Bluegrass Singer, and then had to sit in a stressful spot. Showed some class by finishing gamely.

:5: ITSAKNOCKOUT - Up close to a hot pace last time in an Allowance Optional Claiming 3yo nw1x, finishing strong. I put him on my watch list following the performance. He has the value today.


:5:-:6:-:7:

Going to bet the :5: ITSAKNOCKOUT , and if UPSTART is bet down to 8/5ml or lower, I'll also use the :6: FROSTED on some tickets for the purpose of increasing my hit percentage.

Agree for the most part. It will be interesting to see what :6: Frosted does with the addition of blinkers. Based on his last work with the shades it might have him more focused today in the lane. Whether that's enough to make up 5 lengths on :7: Upstart I'm not sure. I prefer the :4: Gorgeous Bird as his Alw score was most impressive to me. Not sure he's quick enough as the top two, but I think he still has a lot of upside.

[Ocala Mike]

Using the improving :4: in exactas and tris with the :6: and :7: .

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Look forward to this race every year, trying to relive the glory of the 1996 running, when I played the :5: Built For Pleasure, who won at 143-1. The highest priced winner I've ever cashed on, and a rare chance for me to invoke the Beyer rule of wild cheering (winnings >= 10% of annual income). I can still hear my screaming of "Don't hang five!" echoing off the walls of clubhouse section of the Red Mile...

This year's edition looks a bit more chalky.

TRI: :6:
with :3: :4: :5: :7: :8:
with :3: :8:

Exacta Key Box: :6: with :3: :8:

[Robert Fischer]

Upstart could be even money or lower at post time

main bet = i'll dutch :5: and :6: to win

[duncan04]

:7: Upstart looks tough to beat

:7: :6: / :7: :6: :5: exacta

[Tom]

Hard to get excited about any race at GP.
Horse go there and run huge lifetime tops and never come close at other tracks.
Must be the water.

I never use a GP pace line at any other track, and seldom bet anything at GP. This race hold no interest for me - not at 4-1 and 4-5. Neither horse is worth it.

Bet the 2 and hope track bias trumps all else.

[salty]

i'm giving the :4: a chance, keying in everything

[salty]

wow where was the horse from the last 2 races :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Good race.
upstart and itsaknockout both looked like G1 horses today.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Gotta take down the :7:, right?

[Robert Fischer]

Gotta take down the :7:, right?
i think they have to leave him up.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i think they have to leave him up.

Came into the :5: not once, but twice, in the stretch.

Tough call.

[Stillriledup]

Amazing ride on the 6 horse here....he's got about 500 lengths ahead of the 3, a 60-1 shot, turning for home and can't beat that horse to the wire.

6 has Beyers of: 96, 89, 89 in his last 3 starts and the 3 horse has 76, 81 and 73.

Was that an optical illusion or something? Btw, stupid blinker change on the 6 the horse stuck his head in the air in the lane, cost him board spots getting an equipment change he didnt ever need.

[Robert Fischer]

frosted bumped him out

and then Ortiz didn't really 'correct'

but upstart won today.

i lost , but both horses ran G1

[Stillriledup]

Gotta take down the :7:, right?
The 5 was never going to win.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

frosted bumped him out

and then Ortiz didn't really 'correct'

but upstart won today.

i lost , but both horses ran G1

No doubt they were the best. I'd hate to make the call.

The head on view shows the :5: being completely shut off. He was coming, and I'm not so sure he doesn't pass the :7: if given a rightful path.

[Robert Fischer]

YES

not the way i like to win as far as handicapping , but I'll take the $.

I can take solace in saying i picked the overlay, and cashed, but i feel Upstart was just a little better today.

Itsaknockout needs to be a bit more tactical or simply get a better trip than horses like Upstart in the upcoming major 3yo races.

[NY BRED]

WHAT AN APPROPRIATE NAME FOR THE WINNER AND LOSER


:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[nijinski]

The 5 was never going to win.

What looked bad was the jock still left hand whipping as he was drifting out .
He should lose the mount and deserved to come down . The 7 that is .

[Lemon Drop Husker]

YES

not the way i like to win as far as handicapping , but I'll take the $.

I can take solace in saying i picked the overlay, and cashed, but i feel Upstart was just a little better today.

Itsaknockout needs to be a bit more tactical or simply get a better trip than horses like Upstart in the upcoming major 3yo races.

He needs a better jockey. No offense to Luis Saez, but this horse is now a major contender on the Derby trail. An upgrade on the mount is necessary.

[Bullet Plane]

Well...

I think they will look real hard at taking Ortiz off Upstart.

I'm thinking one of the elite riders will pick up the mount.

[hougie]

What looked bad was the jock still left hand whipping as he was drifting out .
He should lose the mount and deserved to come down . The 7 that is .


Yep that's what I thought too he continued to strike upstart on the left side only pushing him further wide to the right into the 5's path. Its too bad as he may have had it won anyway. There was a momentum change from the 5 though so cant say for certain.

[Maximillion]

What looked bad was the jock still left hand whipping as he was drifting out .
He should lose the mount and deserved to come down . The 7 that is .

I know its a big money race and the adrenalines flowing and all.....but i found that odd too,he also appeared to have lost his cool in the way he was using the whip.

[Stillriledup]

No doubt they were the best. I'd hate to make the call.

The head on view shows the :5: being completely shut off. He was coming, and I'm not so sure he doesn't pass the :7: if given a rightful path.

He doesn't pass under any circumstances. The best case scenario was that the 5 would have gotten up to the 7s neck, but the 7 wasn't tiring he had a lot left.

Tough DQ to make, but they put Pletcher up first and DQd a NY trainer/jock combo...not much of a surprise there.

[ArlJim78]

The 5 was never going to win that race, the rider gave some head fakes at just the right moment to sway the judges. Upstart came out but come on, the five was done.

Ugly looking race though. At the finish the best looking horse was Frammento. The others were staggering.

[Stillriledup]

The 5 was never going to win that race, the rider gave some head fakes at just the right moment to sway the judges. Upstart came out but come on, the five was done.

Ugly looking race though. At the finish the best looking horse was Frammento. The others were staggering.

The 4th place finisher will be better next time with blinkers off and a jock change (to a jock who won't recommend the horse needs blinkers when he obviously doesn't)

[Relwob Owner]

What looked bad was the jock still left hand whipping as he was drifting out .
He should lose the mount and deserved to come down . The 7 that is .

You hit the nail on the head. After the initial push from the horse from the inside horse, the 7 would have probably won and stayed up if the jock did his job. Amazing that after that contact, he went with the left hand.

[JohnGalt1]

I was shocked!

After the race I turned my computer off to eat supper.

I hoped one of the 6 horses I was alive to in the 12th would win.

With 2 even money horses, I didn't think I'd get a fortune, but when the 8 won at 11-1 I checked my account balance.

Zippo for the pick 4 bet.

I thought I put my bet in wrong because I meant to bet Upstart.

I did single Upstart, but we know the results.

[menifee]

Wow the race was slow and the speed fig reflects that. Was GP quicksand today or was this just a staggerfest?

[Robert Fischer]

Wow the race was slow and the speed fig reflects that. Was GP quicksand today or was this just a staggerfest?

Would like to hear what the figure-makers say. I can only answer you from the way I see the races.


The track seemed to be a touch slow for GP.

Irad Ortiz and Frosted threatened to open up rather than 'ration' horse, in spite of already being on even terms with a sure-to-quit Bluegrass Singer.

That premature move led to a small chain reaction where Jose Ortiz and Upstart began urging along early and even going to the whip.

Then in the stretch itself there was also some minor contact and wavering of paths.

Upstart appears to be a G1 horse and he ran quite well.
Itsaknockout also ran very well today.
Frammento managed a fast closing 3rd, but he was reserved early and did not run nearly as well as the top 2.

[OntheRail]

You hit the nail on the head. After the initial push from the horse from the inside horse, the 7 would have probably won and stayed up if the jock did his job. Amazing that after that contact, he went with the left hand.


After the 6 came out and pushed Upstart... Itsaknockout head was leaning on Upstarts hip.. So if Ortiz switches the whip he's smacking Itsaknockout in the muzzle. So he either stops urging or fouls out by hitting the 5. Truthfully they should of let it stand... and I believe if it's any other trainer the TP it would of.

This one belongs in the Bad DQ thread.

[Relwob Owner]

After the 6 came out and pushed Upstart... Itsaknockout head was leaning on Upstarts hip.. So if Ortiz switches the whip he's smacking Itsaknockout in the muzzle. So he either stops urging or fouls out by hitting the 5. Truthfully they should of let it stand... and I believe if it's any other trainer the TP it would of.

This one belongs in the Bad DQ thread.


Correct and in that case, don't whip the horse at all because odds are, the horse will continue to drift out with left handed whipping, which is exactly what he did and why he got DQ'd.

One question I have that rarely seems to be addressed is this: Is the rule that that foul has been taken place only or is whether the horse would have won factored in?

If it is just whether a foul took place, there is no doubt from the head on that Upstart deserved to come down. If whether the horse fouled would have won is factored in, I would say no DQ because Upstart would have won regardless IMO.

[JustRalph]

Looked like a stagger fest to me. Who improves off this race?

The :3: seemed to be the only horse running late

[Valuist]

[QUOTE=Stillriledup]He doesn't pass under any circumstances. The best case scenario was that the 5 would have gotten up to the 7s neck, but the 7 wasn't tiring he had a lot left.

Tough DQ to make, but they put Pletcher up first and DQd a NY trainer/jock combo...not much of a surprise there.[/QUOTE

Upstart clearly intimidated Pletcher's horse. The fact that Upstart was bearing out several lanes is evidence that he was tiring.

[NJ Stinks]

The worst thing about this DQ is that Upstart was running in a straight line until he was slammed by Frosted. The other bad thing is Violette vs. Pletcher at Gulfstream. Violette carries 130 lbs. and Pletcher a feathery 116.

[Stillriledup]

After the 6 came out and pushed Upstart... Itsaknockout head was leaning on Upstarts hip.. So if Ortiz switches the whip he's smacking Itsaknockout in the muzzle. So he either stops urging or fouls out by hitting the 5. Truthfully they should of let it stand... and I believe if it's any other trainer the TP it would of.

This one belongs in the Bad DQ thread.

The more i watch this again, the more i think this is a bad call on the DQ.
The runner up was "lugging in" and was hard to steer and really had nothing left.....the key to me is the final stride, after Saez takes his horse in hand, he starts to subtly ride the horse out again and the horse has nothing and is moving funny at the wire, he was spent, he was all done and wasn't ever passing the winner even though there was the optical illusion that he was gaining. When horse's shift in, the "visual gap" appears to rapidly shrink and that makes it look like the horse is gaining but its just an illusion.

If the race was another 10 yards, Upstart would have beaten that horse by 5 lengths.

From a video watching perspective, the runner up is a horse i wouldn't play a penny on next time, he was moving "Ragged" late in the race and on the gallop out, i'd be looking to beat that horse at a short price next time, he was "all out" in this race and was exhausted at the wire.

[Dark Horse]

Acting job by Saez. I don't see how the contact cost the horse a better placing.

[letswastemoney]

I think people are too focused on the slow final time.

Upstart is one of the top 3 year olds in the nation. Violette likely didn't crank him for this one because they want the Derby.

In addition, after all the complaints about super sonic fast times last year, Gulfstream might have listened and slowed the track down for big days.

[JustRalph]

I think people are too focused on the slow final time.

Upstart is one of the top 3 year olds in the nation. Violette likely didn't crank him for this one because they want the Derby.

In addition, after all the complaints about super sonic fast times last year, Gulfstream might have listened and slowed the track down for big days.

I'm more focused on the fact that after watching the replay a couple of times these horses were staggerrrrriiiinnnggg! I don't think this race did any of them any good going forward.

[Big Russ]

One question I have that rarely seems to be addressed is this: Is the rule that that foul has been taken place only or is whether the horse would have won factored in?

The answer is that it depends on the rules that are in effect in the particular jurisdiction. In Florida, by the rules in place (4), the right call was made.
"(3) The offending horse shall be disqualified if, in the opinion of the stewards, the racing infraction altered the outcome of the race, regardless of whether the infraction was accidental, willful, or the result of careless riding.
(4) A horse crossing another horse so as actually to impede that horse shall be disqualified, unless the impeded horse was partly in fault or the crossing was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey.
(5) If a horse or jockey jostles another horse, the aggressor shall be disqualified, unless the jostle was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey or had no impact upon the outcome of the race."

Ortiz screwed up. I doubt that the 5 ever goes by. But I watched that replay enough times to know that the 5 was razor close to clipping heels, and that Saez acted in self defense.

[reckless]

A couple of thoughts if I may ...

The DQ was correct and warranted. As has been mentioned a few times in the past ... the closer to the finish line the point of contact is, the greater the chance of a disqualification by the offending party.

It is silly to suggest this DQ was ruled because one horse was trained by Pletcher and the other horse by Violette. The favorite impeded the eventual winner twice, for god's sake. There may have been no DQ if there was only the first incident, but the second infraction, closer to home, couldn't be forgiven.

Violette will now go home and run in the Wood Memorial. Pletcher will probably go in the Florida Derby. Zito's horse probably will go in either the Fla Derby or Blue Grass.

While I expect all these horses to run very well next out none of them look to me to be a real threat come Kentucky Derby time.

The F of Y was a very slow race and no generous track variant aficiando could make this race for what it really was -- a crawl.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the FOY pace got pretty hit in the middle. I think that accounts for the slowish final time and the fact they they were kind of tiring late. Still, when you are talking about the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby you can usually expect that the race is going get pretty darn hot at some point. I'm not so sure those top horses inspired much confidence about getting 10F under tough Grade 1 conditions in a big field.

[Relwob Owner]

The answer is that it depends on the rules that are in effect in the particular jurisdiction. In Florida, by the rules in place (4), the right call was made.
"(3) The offending horse shall be disqualified if, in the opinion of the stewards, the racing infraction altered the outcome of the race, regardless of whether the infraction was accidental, willful, or the result of careless riding.
(4) A horse crossing another horse so as actually to impede that horse shall be disqualified, unless the impeded horse was partly in fault or the crossing was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey.
(5) If a horse or jockey jostles another horse, the aggressor shall be disqualified, unless the jostle was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey or had no impact upon the outcome of the race."

Ortiz screwed up. I doubt that the 5 ever goes by. But I watched that replay enough times to know that the 5 was razor close to clipping heels, and that Saez acted in self defense.


Thanks for clarifying the rule. Based on the rule, no doubt that horse comes down.

[rastajenk]

I'm more focused on the fact that after watching the replay a couple of times these horses were staggerrrrriiiinnnggg! I don't think this race did any of them any good going forward.
It might have legged 'em up a little, those that may have needed it. I wouldn't write off any of these too soon.

[Si2see]

The answer is that it depends on the rules that are in effect in the particular jurisdiction. In Florida, by the rules in place (4), the right call was made.
"(3) The offending horse shall be disqualified if, in the opinion of the stewards, the racing infraction altered the outcome of the race, regardless of whether the infraction was accidental, willful, or the result of careless riding.
(4) A horse crossing another horse so as actually to impede that horse shall be disqualified, unless the impeded horse was partly in fault or the crossing was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey.
(5) If a horse or jockey jostles another horse, the aggressor shall be disqualified, unless the jostle was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey or had no impact upon the outcome of the race."

Ortiz screwed up. I doubt that the 5 ever goes by. But I watched that replay enough times to know that the 5 was razor close to clipping heels, and that Saez acted in self defense.

The :8: in the last race had close to the same stretch run in and was left up. One would think that call would've been an almost automatic disqualification directly after the FOY and considering the 11-1 interfered with the favorite.

The only explanation for that dq in a graded stakes race for a minor incident that was caused by a tiring horse on the rail is Pletcher vs. Field. Do you think the would have disqualified Itsaknockout if the same interference would have happened against Upstart ?

[OntheRail]

Si2see precisely what I was going to post. Show just how... how inconstant the Mice can be.

[Robert Fischer]

What looked bad was the jock still left hand whipping as he was drifting out .


Nijinski called it.


First, Frosted lugged out while tiring, hitting Upstart behind the girth.

So Upstart began to get out as well.

Now, Ortiz made a critical error by going to the 3 demonstrative left hands.

Itsaknockout's face than brushed the hind quarters of Upstart and Saez was forced to take up, while nearly clipping heels.


I agree that the left hand from Ortiz may have been a 'tiebreaker' of sorts.

I'm on the fence as far as being overly critical of the ride. He asked too soon after Frosted was asked too soon, but that's more a standard mistake, rather than an awful mistake. He went to the left hand rather than correcting, in the heat of the battle.
He could have gone faster and straighter, but he did get to the wire first in the race he was actually riding in to win. Would've liked to see better instincts and reactions, but it wasn't a bad ride.


Best view I've seen:
xbuBnvFimNI

[rastajenk]

I think the :5:'s action was contributory to the incident and should not have been moved up. Looks like it wanted to drift in, but there was no 'in' to get to. If he had enough left to win the race (that is, to pass the :7: ), he could have got by on the outside. But that didn't seem to be his objective.

[Tall One]

Frosted is a very keen horse..its there, still just figuring it all out..

[nijinski]

After the 6 came out and pushed Upstart... Itsaknockout head was leaning on Upstarts hip.. So if Ortiz switches the whip he's smacking Itsaknockout in the muzzle. So he either stops urging or fouls out by hitting the 5. Truthfully they should of let it stand... and I believe if it's any other trainer the TP it would of.

This one belongs in the Bad DQ thread.

Several here mentioned Pletcher as the reason dq stayed.

Take The Points in a grade 1 , 2010 GP was a DQ knocked down
from 1st to last . TP is not immune to these actions .

[Tall One]

TVG just aired the replay again...Frosted was pretty lathered up turning for home...moreso than the others it seemed?

[EMD4ME]

IMHO opinion, a terrible DQ. Had no wager but no way the 5 was ever going by, no way the 7 was allowing him to get by AND the 5 was looking to lug in. Factor in the initial drift out by the leader who caused the initial contact and you have a terrible DQ.

SHOCKER..... :eek:

[Robert Fischer]

TVG just aired the replay again...Frosted was pretty lathered up turning for home...moreso than the others it seemed?

Good observation.

He got an over-aggressive ride, rather than rationing energy for the stretch, but I still didn't like the way Frosted abruptly shut it down.

This is a horse who had post 12 in the Remsen going 9F and finished gamely after a wide trip.

Would be nice if they can get this horse 'right'.

[Stillriledup]

IMHO opinion, a terrible DQ. Had no wager but no way the 5 was ever going by, no way the 7 was allowing him to get by AND the 5 was looking to lug in. Factor in the initial drift out by the leader who caused the initial contact and you have a terrible DQ.

SHOCKER..... :eek:

Yes, very shocking they "Stole" money from a NY trainer/jock combo in favor of Pletcher. Stunning.

[Tall One]

Good observation.

He got an over-aggressive ride, rather than rationing energy for the stretch, but I still didn't like the way Frosted abruptly shut it down.

This is a horse who had post 12 in the Remsen going 9F and finished gamely after a wide trip.

Would be nice if they can get this horse 'right'.



And the rail that day was the place to be, and why this colt got on my list...He seemed really "Keen" in this race...I think the blinkers helped, but he needs a Cordero on him.

[nijinski]

Acting job by Saez. I don't see how the contact cost the horse a better placing.

He won best supporting rider tonight . :)

[Some_One]

If you don't want to get dq'ed, run in a straight line down the stretch, you go out 3 or so paths like Upstart did, you take a chance with the stewards.

[ubercapper]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]Would like to hear what the figure-makers say. I can only answer you from the way I see the races.


The Equibase Figure for the winner/runner up was 84, which is really, REALLY, low for a graded stakes for 3 year olds. To put it in perspective, International Star earned a 103 in the Risen Star, Far Right 106 in the Southwest and Khozan earned a 108 figure in his allowance win on Sunday at GP.

[letswastemoney]

I don't know anyone that prefers Equibase speed figures. The only reason I'd ever use Equibase PPs is if they gave them to me for free, which they usually do at the Breeders' Cup.

[Robert Fischer]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]Would like to hear what the figure-makers say. I can only answer you from the way I see the races.


The Equibase Figure for the winner/runner up was 84, which is really, REALLY, low for a graded stakes for 3 year olds. To put it in perspective, International Star earned a 103 in the Risen Star, Far Right 106 in the Southwest and Khozan earned a 108 figure in his allowance win on Sunday at GP.

That wasn't an easy race to come up with a figure that accurately matched the ability and energy expenditure of the horses. The time ended up slower than performance level. You would need a human to overlook the process, and then split the variant out for that race, and then fudge it. Then you would have accurate numeric figs for Upstart and Itsaknockout, but you would have Frammento way too high.

If Equibase gave them an 84, that means it was an 84. For their method.

In some ways a specific speed figure is like "batting average" in baseball. Batting average is a certain equation, and it tells you "batting average".
However if we only used batting average, we wouldn't necessarily identify the best or most valuable hitter.

Upstart is a Grade 1 horse, and he has shown the ability to contend or even win 3yo Grade 1 races. He ran to his normal performance level in the Fountain of Youth. He still figures to beat most Grade 2 horses, and it would take a true Grade 1 performance from another horse to beat him.

[ubercapper]

I erred in my earlier post. Original winner Upstart earned an 89 Equibase Speed Figure. Official winner Itsaknockout earned an 84 figure.