Talk me out of this bet...

[_______]

Bovada currently has odds listed for the 2016 Presidential election. You can get:

Dem -190
Rep +155

and:

Male -170
Female +130

Are the odds that a male Democrat wins the next election enough that I wouldn't want to bet on Republican and female and lock in at least a 15% return? I already bet the +130 as that appears to the bigger error and I can see getting better than +155 as the media overplays Iowa results as they always do.

I know this topic is a guarantee for thread drift but will appreciate any thoughts on the proposed bet coupling.

[thaskalos]

Take Republican and Female to lock in the small return...because your existing bet looks shaky at best. :cool:

[_______]

I just don't understand the disconnect between Democrat being a favorite in the odds and female an underdog.

I intend to balance the bet but am sure enough Republican odds will rise during the primaries that I'll wait. If I'm wrong and they drift down to +130, I'd probably be scared enough to lock it in at that point.

[davew]

I checked sportsbook

dems -145
repubs +130
other +5000

they also have candidates and favorite is Hilary +110


11/08/16 - How many days is that from now?
what did you figure in for chances adelson closes down offshore books to US by then? similar to black Friday?

[horses4courses]

Looks like a gilt edge 15% lock - unless Bruce Jenner gets either nomination :eek:

[reckless]

I just don't understand the disconnect between Democrat being a favorite in the odds and female an underdog.

It's possible that the smart money people don't view Hillary as a female. :)

[TJDave]

It's possible that the smart money people don't view Hillary as a female. :)

If I were on the losing end I'd demand proof. ;)

[davew]

It's possible that the smart money people don't view Hillary as a female. :)


Or she is considering a Bruce Jenner style change.

[Robert Fischer]

"Talk me out of this bet..."
Come on _______, please reconsider.
Every bet has a risk of losing.
Think of ____ and _ _'s.
If you really must bet, bet only what you can afford to lose.


(ok I'm sorry, just being a smart ass)

[reckless]

Or she is considering a Bruce Jenner style change.

Only if she wants to look like the manly Olympic hero Bruce Jenner version of 30 years ago and not the modern wannabe prissy version. :)

Also, Hillary doesn't prefer to be the femme -- that role is being played by Mrs. Anthony Weiner -- Huma Mahmood Abedin.

[_______]

Come on _______, please reconsider.
Every bet has a risk of losing.
Think of ____ and _ _'s.
If you really must bet, bet only what you can afford to lose.


(ok I'm sorry, just being a smart ass)

I laughed.

[_______]

I kept the female end of this bet but never balanced it. I just couldn't find a point after Iowa where I thought the eventual Republican nominee's odds made sense.

Small potatos but a win's a win.

[_______]

Not hedging but added two bets:

Trump's portion of the popular vote 44.00-46.99% +165
Clinton's portion of the popular vote 47.00-49.99% +130

[ReplayRandall]

Did you have a bet option on the electoral vote totals for each candidate?

[_______]

Did you have a bet option on the electoral vote totals for each candidate?

Over/Unders

Trump 233.5 +105/-135

Clinton 305 -125/-105

[_______]

Not hedging but added two bets:

Trump's portion of the popular vote 44.00-46.99% +165
Clinton's portion of the popular vote 47.00-49.99% +130

So they weren't intended as hedges but at least one of the will turn out to be one.