2/21 R11 Fair Grounds G2 Risen Star

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not exactly the greatest field of Kentucky Derby preppers, but certainly a field that should be competitive.

A number of strong connections and breeding throughout this race that makes for some very interesting entries, and a solid betting race.

:1: St Joe Bay: A need the lead type gets the rail and underrated jockey Florent Geroux on board. His graded stakes history is interesting, as he has 3 of them with a 3rd and two 4ths. Just too tough to look past his overall numbers that look to be well below many others in here.

:2: Tiznow R J: Well, the first part of his name creates interest immediately so you know the breeding is already solid. Put Broken Vow on the bottom, Asmussen in the barn, and Albarado in the irons and you really start to pique some people's interest. He wasn't quite ready for this level the last time out as he was easily passed in the stretch at this same track, but it wasn't like he was embarrassed. Serious contender to turn the tables on a couple of big time rivals in here.

:3: Bluff: Ran a monster his last race out to break his maiden after two very sorry efforts to start his career. Larry Jones and Kerwin Clark are well known commodities in these parts, and this was an expensive purchase out of Tapit. They didn't mess around with this one, and he has been entered in 2 turn races from the start. Did the lights finally come on in the last as he was eased for a big number and a 5+ length win?

:4: J S Bach: Two solid races to start his career at Gulfstream including an 8 1/2 length romp in his last. Tale of the Cat and Storm Cat on top with Pulpit on the bottom. Add in Pletcher and Bejarano and the names and connections don't get much better in this race. Big step up in class, but he looks ready.

:5: Imperia: Tough read. 4 lifetime races and 3 of them on turf including the BC Juvenile Turf in which he finished 10th, but wasn't embarrassed. Hasn't raced since November, but who knows what we'll get? No doubt a talented horse, and distance is certainly not a problem, but is dirt his best surface? Already owns a win in a Graded Stakes race along with a 2nd in his last out. Major contender if he can come back off the bench and take to the dirt.

:6: War Story: A lot of people like this young colt with breeding out of Northern Afleet on top and Pulpit on the bottom. In his 3 career races he has hit the Exacta every time, but was passed rather easily in the stretch against a big time rival in here in the LeComte. And that was his first major step up in class. Solid works coming in, and has shown ability to run different styles if need be.

:7: Hero of Humor: Was 173/1 in the LeComte and 87/1 in the Spectacular Bid, and hasn't ran a number yet that would show him to be competitive in here. Only thing this longshot may do is add some pace and get in the way of others.

:8: Keen Ice: Last 3 races have been in Graded Stakes company and the closest he has been at the wire is 8 1/2 lengths behind. His works aren't all that exciting either. However, this horse has 5 career starts at 5 different tracks and will add a 6th in his 6th career start. This colt has some late speed of foot, and if he can get into the race a bit earlier, he could be a shot on an upward swing. I can't dismiss.

:9: Big Big Easy: Erratic career to say the least thus far for a horse that hasn't ran into much trouble. Hasn't shown up in his two toughest career races that turned into 15 length losses in both. Add in the fact he hasn't raced since October, lacks the breeding compared to others in here, and you would need to have some serious belief in Asmussen getting this colt ready to fire from 4 months on the bench in order to back.

:10: International Star: Major player in this race and despite the post looks to be the likely favorite come post time. His stretch run in the LeComte was impressive as he easily put away two of his major rivals in here at this very track. Rolls in off a bullet work, with 3 lifetime wins (most in the field). Really hasn't run a bad race in his career, but has plenty that show he could show up short in here if he doesn't fire back off a career effort.

How I See It: There isn't much blinding speed in here, but enough to make a competitive pace in here around :47.1 or so after 4F. All the speed is inside, outside of the :7:, which could lead to a bit of a pace duel. Throw in the :7: on the outside, and we can see some horses that will need to steal this one on the front end pressing to the 6F mark around 1:10.3 to 1:11.1.

Oddly enough, there aren't many deep closers in here outside of the :5:who'll likely let things unfold before him with the experienced Smith in the saddle.

For an 8 1/2 panel race for 3YOs, I have to lean towards the stalking types to come away on a track that isn't hugely favorable to early speed.

This is a really tough race in which "trip" is going to be key for every horse in the race. Get it right, and you'll be handsomely rewarded.

W: :3:
EX: :3::4: Box, :3::4:/:3::4::5::8:
Tri: :3::4:/:3::4::8:/:2::3::4::5::8::10:

[Robert Fischer]

Imperia is definite threat to win. Isn't far from being a legitimate derby horse. Could win impressively or be a dud. A little tough to know.

War Story is very solid. Very game, adaptable, and in top form. He's no superstar, although he could win clear with a great trip. I think he has to be respected in the top 4 contenders at a honest value.

Tiznow R J is a big talented horse. He is not the nimblest horse in the world, and also seems to need a perfect rationing of pace to win what seems to be a strong race. He also has to be respected at a fair price.

Bluff can't be excluded from vertical exotics.

J S Bach is tough if he runs here.

International Star looks like an underlay to me.

[raybo]

Nice analysis and well thought out. :ThmbUp:

I haven't gotten the data file yet so will wait on that before making any observations, other than, there is a whole lot of room, for a whole lot of money to be made in this race! Some of these horses will undoubtedly produce surprise performances, considering the variety of competition in this one. Maybe not the best class of youngsters here, but this field could very well combine for a tremendous viewing experience, and I would not be a bit surprised to see some very high payouts, in all the pools! Don't often get too excited about races these days, but I'm looking forward to this one!! The super holds a lot of promise for a big payday!!

Let's hope for good weather!!

[arw629]

I had money on International Star in his last start and was very happy with him. Mena gave him an absolutely flawless ride and he could not have gotten a better trip. I just can't back him here with that post against a better field and shorter odds.....Honestly I would be surprised if he wins here and I disagree that he will be the ML favorite....I think War Story will improve a lot from his last race and has more upside considering he has only run 3 times to International Star's seven starts ...Imperia is also a contender and the most likely ML fav IMO....St Joe Bay faced a monster last time in Prospect Park and Calculator before that and could move forward for Miller and the red hot Florent Geroux....this guy seems to always put his horses in great spots with chances to win if good enough

[snickster]

:1: St Joe Bay: A need the lead type gets the rail and underrated jockey Florent Geroux on board. His graded stakes history is interesting, as he has 3 of them with a 3rd and two 4ths. Just too tough to look past his overall numbers that look to be well below many others in here.


Look at the horses he has been running against. They are far over the class of the horses that anyone else has been running against. In the short races has almost won against the best. In the long races has been in the lead and faded in 1 mile races. At 1 1/16th should be in the lead and should wire this cheap field.

[raybo]

Look at the horses he has been running against. They are far over the class of the horses that anyone else has been running against. In the short races has almost won against the best. In the long races has been in the lead and faded in 1 mile races. At 1 1/16th should be in the lead and should wire this cheap field.

Problem I see with his wiring this race is that he doesn't have the early speed to wire this field. His best surface/distance qualified FR1 velocity is 53.08 fps, which ranks 10th, in a field of 10. He does rank 2nd in FR2, but by the time he runs FR1 he will have much ground to make up in order to lead by the 2nd call. Don't see him leading at either the 1st or 2nd call, unless the whole field just lets him have an easy, slow lead.

[snickster]

Problem I see with his wiring this race is that he doesn't have the early speed to wire this field. His best surface/distance qualified FR1 velocity is 53.08 fps, which ranks 10th, in a field of 10. He does rank 2nd in FR2, but by the time he runs FR1 he will have much ground to make up in order to lead by the 2nd call. Don't see him leading at either the 1st or 2nd call, unless the whole field just lets him have an easy, slow lead.

Just looking at the PP's to me he is the speed of the race. The #4 and #9 have some speed and will press him a little but he is the speed of speed in this race and the #4 and #9 are too cheap to maintain a sustained threat. I think you should put down your mumbo jumbo speed figures created by someone who don't have a clue.

[arw629]

Problem I see with his wiring this race is that he doesn't have the early speed to wire this field. His best surface/distance qualified FR1 velocity is 53.08 fps, which ranks 10th, in a field of 10. He does rank 2nd in FR2, but by the time he runs FR1 he will have much ground to make up in order to lead by the 2nd call. Don't see him leading at either the 1st or 2nd call, unless the whole field just lets him have an easy, slow lead.

I don't think he is a need the lead horse .....let's look at the timeline on this horse....before the race the horse had ran twice on dirt(sprinting and routing) against msw and mcl, then synthetic going 7f, then turf routing....the connections saw some talent and decided the best course with this horse was routing on the dirt....they figure what the hell let's try the sham.....they draw the rail forcing the decision to gun to the front....the horse bobbles at the break, still made the lead, and did have some fight at the top of the lane.....

the next start against prospect park.....slight bobble at the break and then they get the horse to relax on the lead.....the Gomper came at him who I believe was some absurd odds that day maybe like 2-5? St Joe's Bay looked him right in the eye and repelled the challenge only to get run down late by a promising looking Prospect Park......watch this race back without Prospect Park in the race and you have an impressive front running victory.....i think the fact that they got him to relax on the lead could mean they could get him to relax behind horses.....i think if Geroux could take back, he could get the same trip International Star did in the Le Comte.....the horse is still finding his identity and as long as he can take a little dirt i think he can be very dangerous going forward....i believe pedigree at this point is his biggest enemy

[ReplayRandall]

Just looking at the PP's to me he is the speed of the race. The #4 and #9 have some speed and will press him a little but he is the speed of speed in this race and the #4 and #9 are too cheap to maintain a sustained threat. I think you should put down your mumbo jumbo speed figures created by someone who don't have a clue.
Your comment to Raybo about his speed figures is incorrect. At one time I was skeptical of his analytics, however, before X-mas Raybo gave out the following synopsis on the G-1 Malibu:



Here's how it shakes out from after the 1st call to the finish:

1 Conquest Two Step (59.39 fps)
5 Pimpernel (59.14 fps)
3 Indianapolis (57.92 fps)
2 Chitu (57.42 fps)

So, from start to finish, here's what we have:

1 Conquest Two Step (59.38 fps)
5 Pimpernel (59.14 fps)
3 Indianapolis (57.92 fps)
2 Chitu (57.42 fps)

Where is Shared Belief????

FR1 - 7th at 55.55 fps
FR1+FR2 - 9th at 56.21 fps
FR2+FR3 - 7th at 56.70 fps
Start to finish - 7th at 56.70 fps

Conquest Two Step went off at 70-1 and Shared Belief was "used" to get him in deep stretch. It was a "great" call IMO, and made me look at Raybo much differently than before. How do you call a 70-1 in a G-1 race and the horse almost holds on against Shared Belief?!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Look at the horses he has been running against. They are far over the class of the horses that anyone else has been running against. In the short races has almost won against the best. In the long races has been in the lead and faded in 1 mile races. At 1 1/16th should be in the lead and should wire this cheap field.

Thanks for the info.

By the way, what are the "horses" he has been running against?

Prospect Park, Calculator, and Conquest Typhoon?

Last I looked, he didn't beat any of them, and finished well back at 1M. He now has to run another 1/2 panel.

His only chance is to get too far away to catch. Problem is, he just isn't that good or that fast. And after 7 panels, he folds like a tent.

[PhantomOnTour]

:6: War Story

[PhantomOnTour]

Rumor mill says JS Bach will scratch

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Rumor mill says JS Bach will scratch
'
Well damn.

That certainly throws a wrench into things.

[Tom]

I heard that today, and that Moss was going back to the Risen Star?

[trifecta]

Rumor mill says JS Bach will scratch

Looks like he scratched.


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90265/j-s-bach-villandry-scratched-from-fg-stakes?source=rss

[snickster]

Thanks for the info.

By the way, what are the "horses" he has been running against?

Prospect Park, Calculator, and Conquest Typhoon?

Last I looked, he didn't beat any of them, and finished well back at 1M. He now has to run another 1/2 panel.

His only chance is to get too far away to catch. Problem is, he just isn't that good or that fast. And after 7 panels, he folds like a tent.

Calculator and Conquest Two Step may be in the top 10 or 20 3yos. I don't know about Prospect Park. St Joe Bay also finished one length behind No Problem and Alright Alright sprinting who are also very good horses. I do not see any other horses in the race who has consistently ran decently against that level of class horses in the PP's. If a horse can take the lead against such competition at shorter distances and fades, it typically easier for them to stretch out at a longer distance and wire the field as the pace is slower and he does not get as tired having to exert himself so hard.

[Robert Fischer]

:1: St. Joe Bay - I'm not high on him. A win would surprise me. A 2nd or 3rd would surprise me, but I could see it happening if he got the right trip.
I thought Trujillo was able to control early last time and dictate a liesurely pace vs. higher regarded rivals, and that invited The Gomper to come tackle him and take over. That confrontation made it a little more difficult for me to judge, but he had it good early.

Imperia is the most important horse to figure out here. I'm going to pass the race because I don't know what he's going to do. It's tempting to bet him if you get moderate favoritism of 2-1,5-2 or something.

I also think there is value betting against International Star. He could actually win with a big race, but if the public reads his last race victory in the literal sense, he becomes an underlay.

[snickster]

:1: St. Joe Bay - I'm not high on him. A win would surprise me. A 2nd or 3rd would surprise me, but I could see it happening if he got the right trip.
I thought Trujillo was able to control early last time and dictate a liesurely pace vs. higher regarded rivals, and that invited The Gomper to come tackle him and take over. That confrontation made it a little more difficult for me to judge, but he had it good early.

Imperia is the most important horse to figure out here. I'm going to pass the race because I don't know what he's going to do. It's tempting to bet him if you get moderate favoritism of 2-1,5-2 or something.

I also think there is value betting against International Star. He could actually win with a big race, but if the public reads his last race victory in the literal sense, he becomes an underlay.

Imperia is also an obvious class horse and is one to beat along with St. Joe Bay based on the PP's. He almost beat El Kabeir who was supposed to be a very good horse but got beat last week in the Withers by that horse that broke dead last.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Calculator and Conquest Two Step may be in the top 10 or 20 3yos. I don't know about Prospect Park. St Joe Bay also finished one length behind No Problem and Alright Alright sprinting who are also very good horses. I do not see any other horses in the race who has consistently ran decently against that level of class horses in the PP's. If a horse can take the lead against such competition at shorter distances and fades, it typically easier for them to stretch out at a longer distance and wire the field as the pace is slower and he does not get as tired having to exert himself so hard.

So... I take it that you are betting the :1:?

[Robert Fischer]

Imperia is also an obvious class horse and is one to beat along with St. Joe Bay based on the PP's. He almost beat El Kabeir who was supposed to be a very good horse but got beat last week in the Withers by that horse that broke dead last.

You could be right.
You've got a good angle and a good ml price. :ThmbUp:

Do you ever look at the Timeform (https://timeformus.com/default.aspx)past performances?
He's their top rated horse as well (now that J S Bach is scratched).
Their pace projector suggests he could set the pace.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

You could be right.
You've got a good angle and a good ml price. :ThmbUp:

Do you ever look at the Timeform (https://timeformus.com/default.aspx)past performances?
He's their top rated horse as well (now that J S Bach is scratched).
Their pace projector suggests he could set the pace.

I'm OK.

I'm still on the :3:.

If he is a Derby horse like I believe, he is a Derby horse.

[Appy]

With the 4 out I think it may actually hurt his chances, but I can see a possibility the 8 will run em down late. If not, then Star (10) will need to grind at a bit higher clip to beat the 5 and be the Star.
If things go well, 8-3. I always pull for LJ.

[raybo]

I think you should put down your mumbo jumbo speed figures created by someone who don't have a clue.

First of all, I don't use "speed figures" (or "pace figures") I use Howard Sartin's age-old calculations of average rate of speed in feet per second, rather than miles per hour (which he called "velocities"). Very straightforward "math", that is further refined by the inclusion of the tracks' daily variant proportionally applied to each fractional segment, the published run-up for each past race, and a variable beaten length multiplier based on the fractional leaders' average speed, rather than a static multiplier like 1/5 second per length, or any other static time (because static multipliers are not as accurate, rather, they assume that all horses in all races, at all distances, are traveling at the same speeds - simply innaccurate).

Just because St Joe Bay is classified as an "E" horse, doesn't mean he has the actual speed to get the lead, or even battle for the lead. Only when you compare his actual calculated speed with the calculated speeds and running styles of the other horses in the field, can you make an informed opinion on which horses will be vying for the early lead. So, unless St Joe Bay magically, and dramatically improves since his last race, and suddenly displays early speed capabilities that he has never shown before, at route distances, he simply does not have the speed to lead in this field, or if he runs hard enough early to actually lead at some point before the 2nd call, he will soon crash and burn due to his jockey's own stupidity. (Unless of course, no other horse in the race wants to run early and they all simply give him the lead by default. I don't see that happening - do you?)

So, there is no "mumbo jumbo" here, only logic and math. I doubt anyone else on this forum would classify my methods as "mumbo jumbo". As a matter of fact, if anyone else has gotten that impression from my postings, let them speak up now, and I will stop posting here.

[ArlJim78]

I don't like St. Joe Bay as a win prospect but I would be rather surprised if he wasn't either first or second at the pace calls.

[raybo]

I don't like St. Joe Bay as a win prospect but I would be rather surprised if he wasn't either first or second at the pace calls.

That s certainly a possibility, but "snickster" posted that St Joe Bay would "wire the field", meaning to take the lead from the gate and win the race while remaining on the lead the entire time. My methods show that as an "almost" impossibility. He simply has never shown the early speed and endurance ability to take the early lead and finish strong enough to win, against this field. As a matter of fact, I will match his bet that St Joe Bay will not "wire" this field.

[River11]

:5: :8: exacta box

[raybo]

I'm going with my "Class/Distance" rankings in this one.

Here are the top 5 rankings, high to low, for that method:

#, Name, M/L odds
8 Keen Ice - 8/1
5 Imperia - 7/2
10 International Star - 9/2
6 War Story - 5/1
2 Tiznow R J - 5/1

[Robert Fischer]

:5::2::6::3: pass (unless 10-INTERNATIONAL STAR is heavily bet, then take that $)

[Ocala Mike]

Reaching in for the :3: , Larry Jones' horse. Broke his maiden pissing in, as they say, and workout 5 days ago says he's ready to tackle this moderate crew.

[ArlJim78]

That s certainly a possibility, but "snickster" posted that St Joe Bay would "wire the field", meaning to take the lead from the gate and win the race while remaining on the lead the entire time. My methods show that as an "almost" impossibility. He simply has never shown the early speed and endurance ability to take the early lead and finish strong enough to win, against this field. As a matter of fact, I will match his bet that St Joe Bay will not "wire" this field.
I agree I don't see him wiring the field, but originally you said that he does not even have the kind of speed to lead this field at any point which I find odd because to me he looks like one of the more likely pacesetters.
we'll see.

[raybo]

I agree I don't see him wiring the field, but originally you said that he does not even have the kind of speed to lead this field at any point which I find odd because to me he looks like one of the more likely pacesetters.
we'll see.

What I said was that I "Don't see him leading at either the 1st or 2nd call", and I stand by that. His best displayed FR1 velocities (start to 1st call) in route races, rank him 10th out of 10 (9th out of 9 now, with the scratch of JS Bach), and even though he ranks 2nd in FR2 (1st to 2nd call), after running the FR1 segment he will be too far behind the leaders to catch and pass them by the 2nd call (unless he wants to commit racing suicide, of course). His "best" route FR1 velocity is over 3 feet per second less than at least 2 others in this field, and 2 feet per second less than 2 others in this field, and at least 1 foot per second less than 3 others in this field. That's 7 horses out of 8 for which he runs slower in the FR1 segment. Convert those differences in rate of speed, to lengths, and you will see what I'm getting at here.

Can a miracle happen? I suppose, but I'm not likely to bet while hoping for such a miracle. Could I be wrong? Sure, we all can be, but in this instance I feel pretty sure I'm not.

Ask CJ, he's the king of pace figures here (and I'm not being facetious, as I truly believe he is), I'd be interested in what he has to say, regarding the likelihood of St Joe Bay taking the lead by the 2nd call, barring everyone else just letting him have it, or his effectively committing certain suicide by sprinting full out from the gate to the 2nd call.

[Dahoss2002]

Not a fan of 4 horse exacta and tri boxes but gonna make an exception here.
5-6-7-10
A small wps bet on the 7 horse. Still fresh in my mind Dorenchenko's "Hero Of Honor" going wire to wire in the LA Derby a couple years back at a hunnerd to one or so.

[Tom]

Ask CJ, he's the king of pace figures here

It's the FREE race at TFUS today.
Pace Projector has him leading early, and he is the Power pick to win.

I see the :1: , :2: out in front clear most of the way.
Picking a closer here is not that easy..... :6: , :8: , :10: look like the one to catch the top two.

I think Keen Ice has the best shot in here.

[raybo]

It's the FREE race at TFUS today.
Pace Projector has him leading early, and he is the Power pick to win.

I see the :1: , :2: out in front clear most of the way.
Picking a closer here is not that easy..... :6: , :8: , :10: look like the one to catch the top two.

I think Keen Ice has the best shot in here.

That is interesting, I guess we'll see if the Pace Projector is right (and the Power pick), or not. I'd rather hear what CJ says though. I can't imagine that running style alone is enough to project SJB as the leader, unless it is projecting a very slow pace also. there are just too many horses, in this field, with better early speed than SJB has displayed thus far in his career (and I don't think the Pace Projector projects improvement (current form) and I think that would be the only way SJB improves his early speed enough to lead this field by the 2nd call).

We'll know in 20 minutes!

Good luck all!!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Reaching in for the :3: , Larry Jones' horse. Broke his maiden pissing in, as they say, and workout 5 days ago says he's ready to tackle this moderate crew.

I think this guy is on to something...:ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Damn. The scratch of the :4: has moved more money on the :3: and towards a tipping point of 8/1 right now.

Shocked by the wagering on the :5: and :6:, while the :10: sits at 6/1.

A lot of time before the post, so it will adjust, but interesting early money nonetheless.

[raybo]

Yeah, not too many people think SJB has much of a chance, at 39/1 early. His morning line at 12/1 was generous in my opinion. :eek:

[Tee]

:8: Keen Ice looks good to me.

[cj]

:8: Keen Ice looks good to me.

He's my bet too, good luck with that! ;)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:8: Keen Ice looks good to me.

A :3::8: or :8::3: Exacta will pay well for some people. :cool::ThmbUp:

[salty]

exacta box :8: :10:

tris:

:8: :10: // :8: :10: // :2: :3: :5: :6: :9:

:8: :10: // :2: :3: :5: :6: :9: // :8: :10:

[Robert Fischer]

passing

public betting my horses, and they didn't bet the 10

[salty]

WOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

[Robert Fischer]

exacta box :8: :10:

tris:

:8: :10: // :8: :10: // :2: :3: :5: :6: :9:

:8: :10: // :2: :3: :5: :6: :9: // :8: :10:

good one salty

[Lemon Drop Husker]

WOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

Salty bringing it home.

I'd love for somebody to explain to me how the :10: wasn't the favorite.

[salty]

because for some reason people think El Kabier is a good horse

[raybo]

Well, the Pace projector was right, albeit at a slow pace for a 1 1/16m graded race. But, SJB had very little left in the stretch after leading slowish fractions. I must say, I'm a bit surprised that there was not more pressure early.

[salty]

oh geeze Inquiry, my second today and i have the super for 30 cents and the tri for one dollar. I feel like i got lucky with House Rules staying up..... :bang: :bang: :sleeping:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

because for some reason people think El Kabier is a good horse

:lol:

True. That great horse only got beat on his home track by another that nearly fell on his face out of the gate, gave the field at least 10 lengths...and still beat him coming from behind against slow fractions.

[ArlJim78]

What I said was that I "Don't see him leading at either the 1st or 2nd call", and I stand by that. His best displayed FR1 velocities (start to 1st call) in route races, rank him 10th out of 10 (9th out of 9 now, with the scratch of JS Bach), and even though he ranks 2nd in FR2 (1st to 2nd call), after running the FR1 segment he will be too far behind the leaders to catch and pass them by the 2nd call (unless he wants to commit racing suicide, of course). His "best" route FR1 velocity is over 3 feet per second less than at least 2 others in this field, and 2 feet per second less than 2 others in this field, and at least 1 foot per second less than 3 others in this field. That's 7 horses out of 8 for which he runs slower in the FR1 segment. Convert those differences in rate of speed, to lengths, and you will see what I'm getting at here.

Can a miracle happen? I suppose, but I'm not likely to bet while hoping for such a miracle. Could I be wrong? Sure, we all can be, but in this instance I feel pretty sure I'm not.

Ask CJ, he's the king of pace figures here (and I'm not being facetious, as I truly believe he is), I'd be interested in what he has to say, regarding the likelihood of St Joe Bay taking the lead by the 2nd call, barring everyone else just letting him have it, or his effectively committing certain suicide by sprinting full out from the gate to the 2nd call.
It wasn't a miracle, it was very obvious quite frankly that SJB would take the lead. I seriously don't know how you could have completely dismissed him as the obvious pacesetter along with the Dorochenko horse.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

It wasn't a miracle, it was very obvious quite frankly that SJB would take the lead. I seriously don't know how you could have completely dismissed him as the obvious pacesetter along with the Dorochenko horse.

:1::2::4::7: were the obvious pace in the race. I don't care what computer system or pace rating system you plug this race into, they were the obvious "on the lead" types.

When the :4: scratched, the :1: was going to get the lead.

[raybo]

It wasn't a miracle, it was very obvious quite frankly that SJB would take the lead. I seriously don't know how you could have completely dismissed him as the obvious pacesetter along with the Dorochenko horse.

Because I didn't expect the pace to be that slow in a 1 1/16m graded stakes race. I could see if for a 1 1/8m race. That's racing I guess. I did say that if SJB gets the lead he will be committing suicide, in regard to winning the race. I guess he really had no choice but to break hard, coming from the 1 post.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Because I didn't expect the pace to be that slow in a 1 1/16m graded stakes race. I could see if for a 1 1/8m race. That's racing I guess. I did say that if SJB gets the lead he will be committing suicide, in regard to winning the race. I guess he really had no choice but to break hard, coming from the 1 post.

I'm confused as to what part of his form said he shouldn't get the lead?

4 of his 6 career races he had the lead, and his only 1st or 2nd finishes came when he had the lead. Was he going to pass horses all of a sudden for the first time in his career (he has passed 1 horse in his career including today)?

[raybo]

I'm confused as to what part of his form said he shouldn't get the lead?

4 of his 6 career races he had the lead, and his only 1st or 2nd finishes came when he had the lead. Was he going to pass horses all of a sudden for the first time in his career (he has passed 1 horse in his career including today)?

As I said before, running style is not the only thing to consider when trying to project the early leader. They also have to have the speed to do so. He obviously had the speed today because of the slowish pace. I didn't expect a pace that slow. I was wrong, but I guess you are never wrong? Oops, you had the 3 as the winner, so I guess you can be wrong sometimes also.

He definitely didn't wire the race though did he? That was the original discussion regarding SJB. After that I was giving my opinion on the actual rates of speed, and those rankings, that the horses have shown in route races thus far in their careers. You're free to agree or disagree.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

As I said before, running style is not the only thing to consider when trying to project the early leader. They also have to have the speed to do so. He obviously had the speed today because of the slowish pace. I didn't expect a pace that slow. I was wrong, but I guess you are never wrong?

He definitely didn't wire the race though did he? That was the original discussion regarding SJB. After that I was giving my opinion on the actual rates of speed, and those rankings, that the horses have shown in route races thus far in their careers. You're free to agree or disagree.

Nope.

I am never wrong. Didn't you see my selections? :D:ThmbDown:

[ReplayRandall]

As I said before, running style is not the only thing to consider when trying to project the early leader. They also have to have the speed to do so. He obviously had the speed today because of the slowish pace. I didn't expect a pace that slow. I was wrong, but I guess you are never wrong? Oops, you had the 3 as the winner, so I guess you can be wrong sometimes also.

He definitely didn't wire the race though did he? That was the original discussion regarding SJB. After that I was giving my opinion on the actual rates of speed, and those rankings, that the horses have shown in route races thus far in their careers. You're free to agree or disagree.
You've made some good calls in the past, and you've made some bad calls, too......Welcome to the club.

[arw629]

just curious....what were the twinspires profit lines for this race?

[raybo]

You've made some good calls in the past, and you've made some bad calls, too......Welcome to the club.

You're right! The key is to get enough good ones at good enough prices to come out ahead long term. In short, if you're looking at races using the same things, in the same ways, as others, you're probably going to do about as well as those others do. No thank you! :lol:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

just curious....what were the twinspires profit lines for this race?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbBX6aEzEz8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbBX6aEzEz8)

[ReplayRandall]

You're right! The key is to get enough good ones at good enough prices to come out ahead long term. In short, if you're looking at races using the same things, in the same ways, as others, you're probably going to do about as well as those others do. No thank you! :lol:
You have no idea what you're talking about......Might wanna cut back on that Texas roadkill you've been eatin'.......BTW, I won't ever extend an olive branch to you again, and that's a sure bet, slick.....

[Red Knave]

You're right! The key is to get enough good ones at good enough prices to come out ahead long term. In short, if you're looking at races using the same things, in the same ways, as others, you're probably going to do about as well as those others do. No thank you! :lol:You have no idea what you're talking about......Might wanna cut back on that Texas roadkill you've been eatin'.......BTW, I won't ever extend an olive branch to you again, and that's a sure bet, slick.....
Wow, tough crowd.

[PhantomOnTour]

Well, the Pace projector was right, albeit at a slow pace for a 1 1/16m graded race. But, SJB had very little left in the stretch after leading slowish fractions. I must say, I'm a bit surprised that there was not more pressure early.
Was the pace slow?
Raw splits of 23.29-47.08-112.16 are pretty quick for the FG surface.
I didn't look at the other dirt races today so I don't know how fast the track was today, but the above raw splits are not slow at FG.

[outofthebox]

Was the pace slow?
Raw splits of 23.29-47.08-112.16 are pretty quick for the FG surface.
I didn't look at the other dirt races today so I don't know how fast the track was today, but the above raw splits are not slow at FG.Interesting enough that all three stakes at a 1 1/16 were within 1/5th on pace fractions throughout the race. Agree that the pace was not slow.

[raybo]

You have no idea what you're talking about......Might wanna cut back on that Texas roadkill you've been eatin'.......BTW, I won't ever extend an olive branch to you again, and that's a sure bet, slick.....

Where did that come from? And, what are you so upset about?

If 98+% of players lose money long term, and you do what most players do, then you probably are going to lose money. That's all I was saying. And I was not pointing that at you either, it was a general statement.

[arw629]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbBX6aEzEz8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbBX6aEzEz8)

What makes this post incredibly creepy is the fact that this song is the ringtone on my phone...

[PhantomOnTour]

Watched the replay a few times:

International Star gets the trip again...lugged out a bit and changed to his wrong lead when he felt the stern whip a furlong out. I am looking to play against him next time.

War Story gave a pretty strong effort while pretty wide during the latter portion of the far turn, and way wide entering the lane. Looks like the galloping type that can go further...I like him.

Keen Ice got an inside closing trip, finished 3rd and galloped out past the top two. Plodding type just keeps coming and is that kind of runner who clunks up for a piece in the Derby...but will he even get there?

[Robert Fischer]

Watched the replay a few times:

International Star gets the trip again...lugged out a bit and changed to his wrong lead when he felt the stern whip a furlong out. I am looking to play against him next time.

War Story gave a pretty strong effort while pretty wide during the latter portion of the far turn, and way wide entering the lane. Looks like the galloping type that can go further...I like him.

Keen Ice got an inside closing trip, finished 3rd and galloped out past the top two. Plodding type just keeps coming and is that kind of runner who clunks up for a piece in the Derby...but will he even get there?

War Story ran a nice race.