bgbootha
02-16-2015, 02:09 AM
Here we go, the last of the 10 point Kentucky Derby prep races on this Presidents day holiday. The Southwest Stakes hasn’t historically produced a great number of Derby winners or even contenders, but last year’s winner Tapiture went on to win finish second in the Rebel Stakes and 4th in the Arkansas Derby against solid horses.
This year the field looks a little thin on paper, as well as looks like a close contest. Less than 7 HBD points separate our top pick from the 5th choice on our list. Here is a closer look at those top 5 picks:
:6: - KANTUNE - A surprise at the top of the list, and with a morning line of 15-1 could produce at a nice price. One of only two ++ pace horses in the race should produce a scenario where Kantune is in prime position to make a coming out of the turn. The pace in this race could be fairly quick with three horses rated at over a 50+ HBD Early Pace value and that should give someone just off the lead a decent pace to run into. Kantune has a +3 HBD pedigree rating for this distance and surface and should be able to handle the distance just fine. He is coming off an impressive three length victory here at Oaklawn a few weeks ago, and has continued to improve in his last three starts. This is a price horse ready to pop and should have good position to do so.
:4: - BAYERD - Another horse that should be just of the leaders is Bayerd. He has the top HBD Early Pace rating of 59.2, but I think he will let JS Bach and possibly Mr. Z try to duke it out. This is another horse who could score at a decent price sitting at a 8-1 morning line. He is adding a sixteenth of a mile to his last outing, but I don’t think the distance is going to be a problem. His 2nd place finish last out in the Smarty Jones was a solid race and I would expect him to improve on those numbers here. In fact in his six career starts, Bayerd has never finished out of the money and has only finished 3rd once.
:3: - FAR FROM RIGHT - The deserved morning line favorite is coming off an impressive win coming from last to first to win the Smarty Jones here at Oaklawn back in January. While the move from last to first was impressive on paper, the replay shows a dream trip down the rail without having to deal with much traffic at all, and a gift from the front runners who couldn’t run straight to save their lives, Mr. Z finished that race somewhere near lane 12. The pace should be quick and he should have the right scenario to score again. He is making is second start off a layoff and could improve back into the high 90’s brisnet speed figure that scored him a third place finish in his penultimate start at Delta Downs. But the value here seems to be a bit inflated, I don’t see us getting close to his 3-1 ML, and anything less seems like a bad value bet.
:10: - MR. Z - As I mentioned a second ago, Mr. Z’s stretch run in the Smarty Jones was horrific and that’s being nice. He had the lead and decided he wanted to give the field a few lengths and jump out to well past the middle of the track. It was amazing that he was able to hold onto third. This is a horse that just keeps finding ways to beat himself. Ignoring his stretch run would be one thing, but he has a history of unruly starts coming out of the gate and can’t seem to run in a straight line. Three races back in the Delta Jackpot he ran a solid 2nd to Ocho Ocho Ocho, but hasn’t shown the same flair he had back in November. This is a horse that hasn’t found the winners circle since his very first race in June of 2014.
:1: - JS BACH - The least raced of the group, this colt will only be making his third start of his career, but the first two were both impressive. He ran a solid 2nd his first time out in a 5.5f affair, and then stretched out to a mile and sixteenth and ran an incredible race that had him winning by more than 8 lengths pulling away from the field handily. He is definitely making a jump up in class and will likely be on the front of the pace, if he can find a way to hold on to the pace he will get the race coming from the 1 hole and will be the first horse that they have to catch coming into the turn. I was surprised to see his morning line at a short 4/1 and I would like to see him closer to 5/1 come post time, but this is a horse that has a lot of unanswered questions, as we only have him as a 30% data rating.
Good Luck out there!
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This year the field looks a little thin on paper, as well as looks like a close contest. Less than 7 HBD points separate our top pick from the 5th choice on our list. Here is a closer look at those top 5 picks:
:6: - KANTUNE - A surprise at the top of the list, and with a morning line of 15-1 could produce at a nice price. One of only two ++ pace horses in the race should produce a scenario where Kantune is in prime position to make a coming out of the turn. The pace in this race could be fairly quick with three horses rated at over a 50+ HBD Early Pace value and that should give someone just off the lead a decent pace to run into. Kantune has a +3 HBD pedigree rating for this distance and surface and should be able to handle the distance just fine. He is coming off an impressive three length victory here at Oaklawn a few weeks ago, and has continued to improve in his last three starts. This is a price horse ready to pop and should have good position to do so.
:4: - BAYERD - Another horse that should be just of the leaders is Bayerd. He has the top HBD Early Pace rating of 59.2, but I think he will let JS Bach and possibly Mr. Z try to duke it out. This is another horse who could score at a decent price sitting at a 8-1 morning line. He is adding a sixteenth of a mile to his last outing, but I don’t think the distance is going to be a problem. His 2nd place finish last out in the Smarty Jones was a solid race and I would expect him to improve on those numbers here. In fact in his six career starts, Bayerd has never finished out of the money and has only finished 3rd once.
:3: - FAR FROM RIGHT - The deserved morning line favorite is coming off an impressive win coming from last to first to win the Smarty Jones here at Oaklawn back in January. While the move from last to first was impressive on paper, the replay shows a dream trip down the rail without having to deal with much traffic at all, and a gift from the front runners who couldn’t run straight to save their lives, Mr. Z finished that race somewhere near lane 12. The pace should be quick and he should have the right scenario to score again. He is making is second start off a layoff and could improve back into the high 90’s brisnet speed figure that scored him a third place finish in his penultimate start at Delta Downs. But the value here seems to be a bit inflated, I don’t see us getting close to his 3-1 ML, and anything less seems like a bad value bet.
:10: - MR. Z - As I mentioned a second ago, Mr. Z’s stretch run in the Smarty Jones was horrific and that’s being nice. He had the lead and decided he wanted to give the field a few lengths and jump out to well past the middle of the track. It was amazing that he was able to hold onto third. This is a horse that just keeps finding ways to beat himself. Ignoring his stretch run would be one thing, but he has a history of unruly starts coming out of the gate and can’t seem to run in a straight line. Three races back in the Delta Jackpot he ran a solid 2nd to Ocho Ocho Ocho, but hasn’t shown the same flair he had back in November. This is a horse that hasn’t found the winners circle since his very first race in June of 2014.
:1: - JS BACH - The least raced of the group, this colt will only be making his third start of his career, but the first two were both impressive. He ran a solid 2nd his first time out in a 5.5f affair, and then stretched out to a mile and sixteenth and ran an incredible race that had him winning by more than 8 lengths pulling away from the field handily. He is definitely making a jump up in class and will likely be on the front of the pace, if he can find a way to hold on to the pace he will get the race coming from the 1 hole and will be the first horse that they have to catch coming into the turn. I was surprised to see his morning line at a short 4/1 and I would like to see him closer to 5/1 come post time, but this is a horse that has a lot of unanswered questions, as we only have him as a 30% data rating.
Good Luck out there!
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