Essex H. at Oaklawn discussion

[letswastemoney]

I handicapped this for Lady and The Track (https://t.co/8vnQUgsgyu).

To summarize the article here, Ride On Curlin has the best chance and Golden Lad has the second best chance, so the favorites are the likely winners.

Maybe Code West can work out a good trip and upset. If there is bridgejumping, Code West is the right horse to show bet.

Other than that, I'm not sure if there are any other possibilities. Ride On Curlin's route record is terrible from a win standpoint. Yet, he faced tough horses, horses better than Golden Lad.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I handicapped this for Lady and The Track (https://t.co/8vnQUgsgyu).

To summarize the article here, Ride On Curlin has the best chance and Golden Lad has the second best chance, so the favorites are the likely winners.

Maybe Code West can work out a good trip and upset. If there is bridgejumping, Code West is the right horse to show bet.

Other than that, I'm not sure if there are any other possibilities. Ride On Curlin's route record is terrible from a win standpoint. Yet, he faced tough horses, horses better than Golden Lad.

Code West is the bet.

[illinoisbred]

He'll probably prove me wrong,but I really think Ride On Curlin is much,much better sprinting. He reminds me alot of Caleb's Posse.

[MJC922]

Joy Boy with the rail draw would at least seem to slightly hurt the chances of the other speed in here. If a solid early pace develops IMO it points to Ride On Curlin as the most likely to succeed. If they collectively decide to leave Joy Boy alone then I can see him taking it pretty far. Not exactly thrilled with this as a betting race. Don't really like Joy Boy coming back in 20 days off the effort. Court, hands of stone, never wins for me. I Got It All couldn't run down Joy Boy without eating any dirt last time, here he looks like he'll have to tuck in and take some dirt, can't see it helping. Code West, 12% trainer, horse comes off a top effort, maybe, but with the trainer I would have to lean toward him falling back to prior efforts which would only get him a minor share. Probably have to go with Court and hope there's enough pace up front where the horse settles and just gets him there.

[Robert Fischer]

I handicapped this for Lady and The Track (https://t.co/8vnQUgsgyu).

To summarize the article here, Ride On Curlin has the best chance and Golden Lad has the second best chance, so the favorites are the likely winners.

Maybe Code West can work out a good trip and upset. If there is bridgejumping, Code West is the right horse to show bet.

Other than that, I'm not sure if there are any other possibilities. Ride On Curlin's route record is terrible from a win standpoint. Yet, he faced tough horses, horses better than Golden Lad.
Thanks for bringing this to our attention LWM. And Nice article on the Lady and the Track blog. Keep it up. :ThmbUp: I'll have to handicap this race. From skimming it there looks like a false favorite and several solid contenders, but I'm not deeply familiar with these horses. Good luck to all.

[salty]

I am going to hope for good odds on the :2: Rocket Time (5-1), then bet it. Then I am going to pray that the inside is the place to be.

The positives are:

:ThmbUp: It looks like this one has gotten used to being glued to the rail in the stretch.

:ThmbUp: The Saratoga race could have just been a combination of being on the wrong part of the track in the stretch and the Distance.

:ThmbUp: The works look nice. On feb 2nd 6f in 1:12(3)

:ThmbUp: Coming into this with 3 wins in a row at 3 different tracks

:ThmbUp: Bris Class rankings have him as the best last class and tied for 2nd best last 3 races. Calms the mind about Ride on Curlin and his "tower of class that shadows the field".

I don't see any real negatives about this horse. So far he gets away nicely, cruises up to the front, Calvin rates out a very smooth pace leaving some gas for the stretch. This one can improve more and will hopefully be a great price.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Code West is the bet.

Really liking this race the more and more I look at it.

Off of Code West. Exotics play for him as he just doesn't like to win.

:8: Greater Lad is where I'm landing.

He has ran against Will Take Charge, Prayer For Relief, and Revolutionary. All horses that are much better than what we see in here. (OK, so PFR is past him prime a tad..:D).

I see the :8: using his tactical speed to get into the race from the poor outside post and sit back a couple lengths off the :1::2: as they set moderate fractions through the first 6Fs.

:8: does his best work coming from a stalking position. He is 3 for 3 at the distance, and I really like the works leading into this one.

Concerned about the :2: being tough on the lead and will use a :2::8: Exacta. Would not be shocked to see Ride On Curlin missing the board.

[Ocala Mike]

It's Valentine's Day, guys. Don't leave the :6: , LUV BANDIT, out of the mix.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

It's Valentine's Day, guys. Don't leave the :6: , LUV BANDIT, out of the mix.

Luv it! :ThmbUp:

Solid breeding. Sired by Barry White out of nice mare in Barry Manilow.

In all honesty, I have him on the bottom to possibly pick up some pieces late.

[Robert Fischer]

After capping the race, it unfortunately looks like a weak field.

You have the borel horse (i think it's the 4? can't remember), Where he has a decent shot at controlling the race, but he's more of an allowance horse than a stakes horse. At least he'll probably be 3rd choice or higher on the board. I'm not crazy about using him, but he's interesting.

You also have the pletcher horse. Unfortunately he doesn't seem very lively. It's always possible that he'll be in the best condition, and run to his back-class, but a lot of times these layoffs and declining form turn out to be 'finished'. He'll also take money because of the trainer(would be hypocritical if i criticized that after this paragraph, wouldn't it).

Ride On Curlin comes in off the great trip, and the fanfare from the triple crown series, but you really would have liked to see a little better rivals.
I haven't decided if i will use the above horses or simply pass. If I pass, this is a race where I think you have to hope that ROC wins so that you can get that money the next time.

[Robert Fischer]

:8: Greater Lad is where I'm landing.

good call :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Really liking this race the more and more I look at it.

Off of Code West. Exotics play for him as he just doesn't like to win.

:8: Greater Lad is where I'm landing.

He has ran against Will Take Charge, Prayer For Relief, and Revolutionary. All horses that are much better than what we see in here. (OK, so PFR is past him prime a tad..:D).

I see the :8: using his tactical speed to get into the race from the poor outside post and sit back a couple lengths off the :1::2: as they set moderate fractions through the first 6Fs.

:8: does his best work coming from a stalking position. He is 3 for 3 at the distance, and I really like the works leading into this one.

Concerned about the :2: being tough on the lead and will use a :2::8: Exacta. Would not be shocked to see Ride On Curlin missing the board.

:8: Golden Lad romps

[MJC922]

Really liking this race the more and more I look at it.

Off of Code West. Exotics play for him as he just doesn't like to win.

:8: Greater Lad is where I'm landing.

He has ran against Will Take Charge, Prayer For Relief, and Revolutionary. All horses that are much better than what we see in here. (OK, so PFR is past him prime a tad..:D).

I see the :8: using his tactical speed to get into the race from the poor outside post and sit back a couple lengths off the :1::2: as they set moderate fractions through the first 6Fs.

:8: does his best work coming from a stalking position. He is 3 for 3 at the distance, and I really like the works leading into this one.

Concerned about the :2: being tough on the lead and will use a :2::8: Exacta. Would not be shocked to see Ride On Curlin missing the board.


Nice call on all counts.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

good call :ThmbUp:

:8: gets brought down I quit.

[Robert Fischer]

:8: gets brought down I quit.
You are fortunate that was an Oaklawn Stakes and not a Charlestown race with a complaint vs. a heavily-bet show horse. :)

Ride on Curlin was a false favorite but i couldn't pull the trigger on the pletcher or the borel in that race. I was rooting for ROC to get lucky and win.

[PizzaCat]

8 stands as it should. Good call LDH

[letswastemoney]

Ride On Curlin still without a route win.

His maiden win was a sprint, and his two other wins came while opening his campaign in a sprint at Oaklawn.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

You are fortunate that was an Oaklawn Stakes and not a Charlestown race with a complaint vs. a heavily-bet show horse. :)

Ride on Curlin was a false favorite but i couldn't pull the trigger on the pletcher or the borel in that race. I was rooting for ROC to get lucky and win.

I should have been more convincing. :jump:

Loved the race. Hammered the winner..., obviously.

As they say, pace makes the race, and there was none for ROC to run into.

[Robert Fischer]

Ride On Curlin still without a route win.

His maiden win was a sprint, and his two other wins came while opening his campaign in a sprint at Oaklawn.

Where is his good sprint race?

[Robert Fischer]

I should have been more convincing. :jump:

Loved the race. Hammered the winner..., obviously.

As they say, pace makes the race, and there was none for ROC to run into.
Glad you hit it. 4-1 on a horse that in hindsight should have been the favorite. You could do good if you found those all year. :cool:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Where is his good sprint race?

Exactly.

I'm baffled why anybody would believe Ride On Curlin would be a better sprinter.

The longer the better. He is a one run horse and distance will never be a problem.

Reminds me of my favorite BC Classic winner in Drosselmeyer. :):ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Glad you hit it. 4-1 on a horse that in hindsight should have been the favorite. You could do good if you found those all year. :cool:

Try with all your might, but you can't kick a winner in the nuts. :cool:

[Robert Fischer]

Try with all your might, but you can't kick a winner in the nuts. :cool:

i don't get it?

[letswastemoney]

Exactly.

I'm baffled why anybody would believe Ride On Curlin would be a better sprinter.

The longer the better. He is a one run horse and distance will never be a problem.

Reminds me of my favorite BC Classic winner in Drosselmeyer. :):ThmbUp:His bottom side pedigree is completely sprint.

I don't see what being a one run horse has to do with anything. The winner's style results from the dynamics of the race.

[letswastemoney]

Where is his good sprint race?He won those sprint races, which is more than can be said of his route races.

The last two sprint wins came while opening his campaign. I don't think most stakes level horses are cranked up for such a race.

[letswastemoney]

In addition, Ride On Curlin's maiden win came in a sprint.

No one expects the maiden win as a 2 year old to be a super fast race.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i don't get it?

It was nothing.

Still celebrating my 4/1 winner that was easy to see "after the fact".

[Robert Fischer]

He won those sprint races, which is more than can be said of his route races.

The last two sprint wins came while opening his campaign. I don't think most stakes level horses are cranked up for such a race.

Wins are overrated

he won a maiden wire-wire, and an allowance virtually wire-wire as heavy chalk in 113'3... then last time he had a pace collapse...


in routes he got 2nd in the PREAKNESS , 7TH in DERBY , 2nd ARK DERBY , 3rd REBEL

he'll never replicate those feats in sprint.

he's just not a great horse, but has class and he peaked at the right time.

sprinting isn't going to unleash some 'magic' , he is who he is.

[Robert Fischer]

It was nothing.

Still celebrating my 4/1 winner that was easy to see "after the fact".

was a compliment :ThmbUp:

[letswastemoney]

Wins are overrated

he won a maiden wire-wire, and an allowance virtually wire-wire as heavy chalk in 113'3... then last time he had a pace collapse...


in routes he got 2nd in the PREAKNESS , 7TH in DERBY , 2nd ARK DERBY , 3rd REBEL

he'll never replicate those feats in sprint.

he's just not a great horse, but has class and he peaked at the right time.

sprinting isn't going to unleash some 'magic' , he is who he is.I would argue he got a dream setup in the Preakness, with Pablo del Monte and Ria Antionia hooking up. Also, the Kentucky Derby is always a dream setup for any closer as there is no such thing as a slow Derby pace.

Even the slowest Derby pace is still fast.

He made a big move in this race and hung, something Caleb's Posse used to do in routes all the time. They will never know, since I expect them to try for an all-route campaign, but he looks like a late running sprinter to me.

[Robert Fischer]

I would argue he got a dream setup in the Preakness, with Pablo del Monte and Ria Antionia hooking up. Also, the Kentucky Derby is always a dream setup for any closer as there is no such thing as a slow Derby pace.

Even the slowest Derby pace is still fast.

He made a big move in this race and hung, something Caleb's Posse used to do in routes all the time. They will never know, since I expect them to try for an all-route campaign, but he looks like a late running sprinter to me.

Ride On Curlin over-achieved , and he did that in route races.

he's not some great hidden sprinter who has been 'mismanaged'

he's an allowance level horse who was managed very well and had a lot of good luck and fortuitous trips, and accomplished wayyyy more than could be expected.

[letswastemoney]

Ride On Curlin over-achieved , and he did that in route races.

he's not some great hidden sprinter who has been 'mismanaged'

he's an allowance level horse who was managed very well and had a lot of good luck and fortuitous trips, and accomplished wayyyy more than could be expected.
Ride On Curlin would need to run in some sprint stakes for that to be proven. Or at the very least, maybe some mile type races. The Met Mile would be a good spot for them to aim towards since it's one turn.

I don't exactly think the pace was slow today either, even though the fractions opened in 23 and 47. Rocket Time is a fast horse, and he's not going to take his time up front.

A few races earlier, Gentlemen's Bet, same horse that finished 3rd in the 2013 Breeders' Cup Sprint, opened up a 6 furlong sprint in 22 and 46 and couldn't get the job done.

I would need to see the pace figures, but comparing raw fractions to earlier races on the card, Ride On Curlin received a nice setup here.

[Robert Fischer]

Ride On Curlin would need to run in some sprint stakes for that to be proven.
Not for me.
He's just not a stakes winning type of horse.

He's a nice horse. He does a lot of things very well. He's just not super talented.

[cj]

Not sure what to think of Ride On Curlin yet, but I'm sure I won't judge him just on today, his second start off a long layoff with a less than ideal trip.

[letswastemoney]

As a last note, Ride On Curlin's only loss in a sprint came against a good one.

[Robert Fischer]

You could be right. If we all had the same opinions there would be no betting :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

When a horse runs competitively in those spring 3yo stakes leading up to the Triple Crown, he's generally not running anywhere near the Grade 1 level for older horses. It takes significant development typical from 3 to 4 to get there.

If you actually run well in one of the Triple Crown races, you are usually getting pretty close unless it was an especially weak group. ROC had that good race in the Preakness, but IMO even that was not equal to a Grade 1 caliber race for older.

So far, it doesn't appear that he's done any developing at all since last year. If this is going to be his level this year, he's going to be a listed or grade 3 type of horse this year. But I think it's too soon to know whether he's done developing after only 2 starts. It's a long year.

[Robert Fischer]

This guy is/was a nice allowance horse. He found a great 'niche' where he was running in high-purse races, and often while he was never a threat to cross the finish-line first, he was getting a good trip and riding with the race-flow and getting a nice share of the purse. The fact that he was fundamentally sound, that his health was thriving, that he had the stamina to get the route distances, and that he was riding (either natural style or intent) to get a piece of the big purses rather than burn up contesting critical parts of the race = all came together in a nice lollapalooza effect where he got to capitalize on the 3yo triple crown route races.