Saturday Feb 7 post mortem

[Valuist]

1. Shared Belief- what a badass horse. Finally not getting pinballed at the break, or racing 4 wide on both turns as he did in his BC prep, he got a chance to show what he could do. Appeared to be well in hand late. Got the feeling the margin could've been bigger if it needed to be, but horses run to win, not run their peak figures.

2. San Marcos- Finnegans Wake a good example of how a horse can keep improving, late in their 4 year year old year and at 5. The other point is could Power Foot have won the race if Fallon wasn't forced to slam on the brakes in final 100 yards? Maybe not, and its tough to win when there's 2 horses outside of you in the stretch who have their full momentum, but we'll never know.

3. Gulfstream turf. Saw a few close up shots and it is in terrible shape right now. Speed hasn't been good all meet but it seems real tiring and laboring. We saw a couple of favorites with clear leads at the 1/8th pole yesterday get run down.

4. Donn- Didn't you expect Blue Tone to show a little more speed? When the horses were on the backstretch and Pletcher's horses were 1-2, it was pretty clear nobody was going to make up too much ground.

5. GP Mdns- could be some key races. Danzig Moon won yesterday coming off a mile race at CD in which he ran faster than the two 2YO stakes races at the same distance that day. Rare Art, a Chad Brown firster, won a race in which he beat a Pletcher 2nd timer coming off a 2nd three weeks ago, and Unbridled Juan, who's out of the Grade 2 winning mare Sugar Swirl. It was 7 lengths back to 4th.

6. GP Turf Cap- great ride by Castellano on Mshawish saving all the ground proved to be the difference as Slumber and War Correspondence had to move wide on far turn. Maybe I'm biased because I bet War Correspondence, but I think there's a very good chance he could turn the tables on the two who finished in front of him.

7. King Cotton- not a bad group and an interesting race by Ivan Fallunovalot (gotta love that name). The chart doesn't do him justice. He was battling thru a 21 1/5 quarter on the inside, and on the turn, he started to drop back, then Borel takes him off the inside, swings him to the outside and he runs down the leader.

[Valuist]

One other point: California Chrome may be CALIFORNIA'S horse, but he's not "America's Horse". That still belongs to Wise Dan. Are our memories so short that we've already forgotten about him?

And re: Ivan Fallinovalot, I've seen Pat Day do that maneuver a number of times, but never Borel. Leaving the inside?

[GarlandTex]

Personally, I think California Chrome is third to both Shared Belief and Bayern.. the Horse of the Year was a travesty.. a popularity contest, not the best horse..

[olddaddy]

I would think the gulfstream grass course is in bad shape because the course is being used year round now.

[biggestal99]

One other point: California Chrome may be CALIFORNIA'S horse, but he's not "America's Horse". That still belongs to Wise Dan. Are our memories so short that we've already forgotten about him?



Wd hasn't run enough. 4 races in 15 months isn't enogh to keep that tittle.

Allan

[Valuist]

Wd hasn't run enough. 4 races in 15 months isn't enogh to keep that tittle.

Allan

"America's Horse" implies the horse beat international competitors. Wise Dan has. To my knowledge, Cal Chrome hasn't.

[Rex Phinney]

To me Anerica's horse is the one who can bring out the most people to the track on any given day. Right now I'd have to say Chrome fits that description.

Wise Dan is an amazing animal but the general public doesn't recognize it the way us more extreme fans will.

[Robert Fischer]

Gulfstream Maiden -

Lieutenant Colonel a Chad Brown FTS won yesterday. The time wasn't tremendous, and he was 10-1, but he's a nice looking colt with a good trainer, and I thought he was going to get caught in the stretch.

The actual Final Quarter split-times on Trakus are interesting:

6.55 6.66 6.75 6.60 Lieutenant Colonel
6.52 6.37 6.43 6.57 Great Stuff
6.57 6.40 6.55 6.75 Vandalize

Probably just because he had been racing on the lead moving into the stretch, but still not something you see in every race.

[MargieRose]

Personally, I think California Chrome is third to both Shared Belief and Bayern.. the Horse of the Year was a travesty.. a popularity contest, not the best horse..

CA Chrome WAS the best horse in 2014 (lots of arguments in the positive for that). Since, lucky us (wouldn't one think?), the three top 3yos of 2013 are racing as 4yos, the other two MAY come around THIS year, but we have 10+ months of racing to go and presumably lots of "traveling?" before the official guillotine should be dropped!

[zico20]

Here are my thoughts. Shared Belief was clearly better than CC. In regards to CC, I have to think he is now a horse that needs to run once a month. Some horses need a longer break to remain effective and some need to run often. His turf race he didn't get enough out of it and then he went over two months without a race.

My fear is that after Dubai CC wont run again til the Gold Cup and then only twice more before the BC. I don't have a ton of confidence in Sherman getting a horse to run off a layoff. I know CC isn't getting a new trainer, but Lukas is the one trainer who can run horses non stop and keep them sharp. Maybe a switch to Lukas is what CC needs.

As far as Shared Belief goes, yes he is a damn good horse. But until he runs and wins outside of California he, IMO, can never be considered great. Think Easy Goer and Lava Man. Easy Goer was invincible in New York but could not win the big ones when he traveled. Lava Man got buried every time he left California. Since Shared Belief is a gelding, I hope he stays healthy and run great for years to come, like Game On Dude. The nice thing is the BC is in Kentucky so Shared Belief will have to travel at some time this year. I would like to see Shared Belief run in NY this summer in the Whitney or Woodward before the BC.

Finally, regarding Dortmund. I said after his CD win that he has the potential for greatness. This win just shows that he is still figuring out what the game is all about. To come back like he did for such a young horse is remarkable. Once he fills out his already huge frame the sky is the limit. He is already ahead of Risen Star and Point Given at this time in his development, the two horses I compare him to. As the distances get longer, he will get much better.

It was strange for Baffert to say before the race that Dortmund NEEDS to win this. Trainers don't say these things in February when the goal is the Kentucky Derby. I think Baffert believes he has the next Secretariat on his hands and dreams of an undefeated TC winner.

[elhelmete]

A highlight of a different kind for history fans...

The 6th race at Santa Anita yielded the 2nd highest Superfecta payoff ever there, and the 3rd highest Trifecta.

Incidentally, none of the LOWEST payoffs for any exotic bet included Zenyatta.

[ReplayRandall]

The 6th race at Santa Anita yielded the 2nd highest Superfecta payoff ever.
The "dime" players divided that pot, as NO dollar player cashed. There were 5 dime players who hit at a payoff of $21,932.21

[OTM Al]

Danzig Moon was the slam dunk on the card Saturday. I don't think he is that great overall, but he was a lot better than the rest of what was in his race. Tried to hook him up in doubles but that didn't work out so good.

[Stillriledup]

A highlight of a different kind for history fans...

The 6th race at Santa Anita yielded the 2nd highest Superfecta payoff ever there, and the 3rd highest Trifecta.

Incidentally, none of the LOWEST payoffs for any exotic bet included Zenyatta.

I contributed to that super price, here's my super that i bet for that race:

2 9 11 w 2 4 7 9 11 w 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 w 4 7

I had a few other variations that all also lost.

[Stillriledup]

The "dime" players divided that pot, as NO dollar player cashed. There were 5 dime players who hit at a payoff of $21,932.21

It would have been very interesting to see if the super would have been unhit had it only been available for 1 dollar. People would have played differently and the bigger bettors would have structured differently...so its never known if one dollar would have found its way onto that combo. If not, there could have been a nice carryover into the very next race...i know some tracks carry the super over into the very next race (Meadows Harness does this for example) but i dont know if Calif rules say they pay the whole pool on 3 of 4.

That's one benefit of a buck super, you get the occasional carryover.

[letswastemoney]

Rare Art and Delightful Joy the next day were very strange.

Both of them ignored on the board.

Both trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Paco Lopez.

No one knew these horses were ready to run first time out? I normally look at the board for maiden races, but they both fooled me going off higher than their ML.

[ReplayRandall]

Rare Art and Delightful Joy the next day were very strange.

Both of them ignored on the board.

Both trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Paco Lopez.

No one knew these horses were ready to run first time out? I normally look at the board for maiden races, but they both fooled me going off higher than their ML.
Rare Art was bet down in the pick3 payoff, which if you parlayed the previous 2 winners for $1, would have come back at $1600 with Rare Art, yet the pick3 paid only $1168. Sometimes you have to look deeper than the win or exacta pools.......M/L odds-maker at GP has been way off so far this meet.

[overthehill]

I dont agree with you -I thought Shared Belief was the best dirt horse i saw last year. The race where he beat fed biz was amazing and stamped him as a great horse in my eyes. I doubt you will see even money on him for a very long time. I also think Easy Goer was a great horse. If he wasnt running against Sunday Silence he would have been a triple crown winner. FWIW I believe we have a terrific crop of three year olds this year, perhaps the best in 20-30 years. how they will fare at 1 1/4 in May im not sure, but there is a lot of talent out there up to a 1 1/8 for sure.

[overthehill]

m/l guy at gp is not to be trusted. worst lines of any of the major tracks.