Winning figs as relate to odds and running style

[mountainman]

Logic and experience might infer that chalk winners run bigger numbers than do longer- priced counterparts. And that lone-f winners run faster times than do stalkers or closers in victory.

I'm curious whether anyone can confirm or refute these suppositions?

[sjk]

Hi Mark,

I use my own figures but my results are in alignment with your expectations:

odds group speed rating - par
0 -4.73
1 -5.21
2 -5.76
3 -6.13
4 -6.44
5 -6.76
6 -6.81
7 -6.98
8 -7.30
9 -7.50
10 -8.11

2nd call len back group speed rating - par
0 -4.88
1 -6.67
2 -7.04
3 -7.37
4 -7.57
5 -7.62
6 -7.78
7 -7.41
8 -7.26
9 -7.63
10 -7.39

The 0 odds group is even and under and the 10 group is 10-1 and over and the others as you would expect.

The 0 2nd call len behind group includes horses within a length of the lead and the 10 group 10 lengths and up. The leaders alone are -4.3.

I guess my winning figures are well below my pars.

[mountainman]

nuch appreciated, pal...and you've helped me so much in the past, but my questions were based strictly on horses that WIN....

[sjk]

The numbers in the table are for winners only. The reason the numbers are less than par is that I have not excluded state breds and young horses which generally run well below par. The pars are for males and the filly races are pulling down the values as well.

[mountainman]

should have known u had me covered..many tx.

[mountainman]

The numbers in the table are for winners only. The reason the numbers are less than par is that I have not excluded state breds and young horses which generally run well below par. The pars are for males and the filly races are pulling down the values as well.

The difference in winning figs as relate to running style goes beyond my expectations. Can you provide some frame of reference for your numbers? how many points per length at the finish? and how many at second call? Also, would it be an imposition to ask if you have stats on the first call??? -one quarter-mile in? And sprints might vary from routes.

[sjk]

The points are the usual Beyer scale with 2 points to a length at a mile etc.

Here is the unfo at first call broken into sprints and routes

dist gp 1st call len back group speed rating - par
R 0 -3.76
R 1 -5.38
R 2 -5.47
R 3 -5.92
R 4 -5.97
R 5 -6.08
R 6 -5.90
R 7 -5.75
R 8 -6.01
R 9 -5.83
R 10 -6.44
S 0 -5.14
S 1 -6.83
S 2 -7.38
S 3 -7.72
S 4 -8.26
S 5 -8.62
S 6 -8.82
S 7 -9.11
S 8 -9.00
S 9 -9.56
S 10 -9.79