Z Besha, Ghostzapper colt, Baffert/Zayat

[Stillriledup]

Derby Contender? :D

People might be talking about his electric finish in today's 3rd at Santa Anita, he finished explosively for 3rd, rocketing at the wire and galloping out 10 in front.

[cj]

Derby Contender? :D

People might be talking about his electric finish in today's 3rd at Santa Anita, he finished explosively for 3rd, rocketing at the wire and galloping out 10 in front.

I'll wait to see the figures, but he was probably flattered by the fast pace and the top two dying late.

[Stillriledup]

I'll wait to see the figures, but he was probably flattered by the fast pace and the top two dying late.

He was reaching pretty good at the end, certainly a good debut even if its numerically not overwhelming.

[OTM Al]

Tell me a horse won big and then galloped out impressively and I might be interested. If he lost, I don't find a gallop out to have much meaning at all.

[Stillriledup]

Tell me a horse won big and then galloped out impressively and I might be interested. If he lost, I don't find a gallop out to have much meaning at all.

If the race was 6f, he probably wins......it doesn't matter to me that the track arbitrarily selected 5.5 furlongs to be the spot where they pay off the bettors, if they picked 6f and not 5.5, the horse wins and a lot more people are talking about him....but he's the same exact horse with the same exact kick and the same exact gallop out, i wouldn't judge his talent based off where the wire was located.

[cj]

If the race was 6f, he probably wins......it doesn't matter to me that the track arbitrarily selected 5.5 furlongs to be the spot where they pay off the bettors, if they picked 6f and not 5.5, the horse wins and a lot more people are talking about him....but he's the same exact horse with the same exact kick and the same exact gallop out, i wouldn't judge his talent based off where the wire was located.

If it were 6f, it would have been ridden differently. I never understand these arguments to be honest. Jockeys race to the wire. I'll trust the numbers on how I think he'll do next time, I'll post here what I give the race.

[Stillriledup]

If it were 6f, it would have been ridden differently. I never understand these arguments to be honest. Jockeys race to the wire. I'll trust the numbers on how I think he'll do next time, I'll post here what I give the race.

Sure, i understand that, i'm just going on adding another 1/2 furlong on to what we saw in the final 16th. The pace could have been slower if the race was longer and things would have changed, i'm trying to make a point that where the wire is doesn't change the talent of the horse, the horse is what he is, he's not less of a horse because he didn't get to their arbitrary wire designation first.

[ArlJim78]

he never even had his name called, was only mentioned after they crossed the wire.

[OTM Al]

The wire is all that matters. There is one word for horses that pass the leader after the wire. Loser.

[Stillriledup]

The wire is all that matters. There is one word for horses that pass the leader after the wire. Loser.

Ok, fair enough.

[luisbe]

If the race was 6f, he probably wins......it doesn't matter to me that the track arbitrarily selected 5.5 furlongs to be the spot where they pay off the bettors, if they picked 6f and not 5.5, the horse wins and a lot more people are talking about him....but he's the same exact horse with the same exact kick and the same exact gallop out, i wouldn't judge his talent based off where the wire was located.

IF my grandma had beard she'd be my grandad.

[Stillriledup]

IF my grandma had beard she'd be my grandad.

What if your "grandma" was Bruce Jenner? Than what? :D

Who "won" or who "lost" a race had no bearing on the talent of the horse, the wire is just a randomly selected place where they decide at that moment how to pay off the pari mutuels....its not something you need to use to judge talent of the athletes.

Or, you can if you want, not going to try and talk you out of it.

[Cratos]

Tell me a horse won big and then galloped out impressively and I might be interested. If he lost, I don't find a gallop out to have much meaning at all.
Your comment surprised me because I enjoy reading your posts.

However I think you might want to look at the debut of Secretariat. He closed fast, finished 4th, and gallop out.

But the best was what he did next by winning 10 straight races en route to HOTY as a 2yo.

[banacek]

Who "won" or who "lost" a race had no bearing on the talent of the horse, the wire is just a randomly selected place where they decide at that moment how to pay off the pari mutuels....its not something you need to use to judge talent of the athletes.

Thanks.. that will give me some solace the next time I am in the midst of a losing streak. I may have lost, but I had the most talented horse. He would have won if they 'randomly' placed the finish line somewhere else.

Usain Bolt's competitors can use that for motivation! :lol:

[Stillriledup]

Thanks.. that will give me some solace the next time I am in the midst of a losing streak. I may have lost, but I had the most talented horse. He would have won if they 'randomly' placed the finish line somewhere else.

Usain Bolt's competitors can use that for motivation! :lol:

:D

Yes, you can always take Solace! In fact, sometimes "Solace" is better than Visa when you're trying to pay those bills!

[OTM Al]

Your comment surprised me because I enjoy reading your posts.

However I think you might want to look at the debut of Secretariat. He closed fast, finished 4th, and gallop out.

But the best was what he did next by winning 10 straight races en route to HOTY as a 2yo.

The gallop out wasn't the impressive part. The impressive part was how he got completely destroyed at the start and still managed to run a strong race first out passing several opponents. First time starters don't do that. Clearly he would have won with a clean race.

The gallop out is meaningless to me. I think more people are fooled by them, especially when the horse is stretching out in the next, than any other facet of the game. As cj so accurately said, different distances give different tactics.

[ubercapper]

Derby Contender? :D

People might be talking about his electric finish in today's 3rd at Santa Anita, he finished explosively for 3rd, rocketing at the wire and galloping out 10 in front.

Being a full brother to Judy the Beauty I was very intrigued going in and the odds were right for a play at 14/1. Needless to say the whole world saw the gallop out and he will likely be odds-on next time out.

Being by Ghostzapper he could stretch out and go long, but considering his sister's achievements were all short, I wonder about distance limitations.

[Cratos]

The gallop out wasn't the impressive part. The impressive part was how he got completely destroyed at the start and still managed to run a strong race first out passing several opponents. First time starters don't do that. Clearly he would have won with a clean race.

The gallop out is meaningless to me. I think more people are fooled by them, especially when the horse is stretching out in the next, than any other facet of the game. As cj so accurately said, different distances give different tactics.
I don't disagree with what you said in this post, but your prior post was the one which caused me concern; especially coming from you.

I might add that I am always skeptical of performances by young developing horses, but this performance look to be promising. :

[OTM Al]

I don't disagree with what you said in this post, but your prior post was the one which caused me concern; especially coming from you.

I might add that I am always skeptical of performances by young developing horses, but this performance look to be promising. :

Let's put it this way. The comment I was objecting to and making a statement about was solely based on a gallop out. My position is, if a horse had enough energy to run more strongly after the end of the race than the winner, then where was the use of this energy during the race? If there was some huge trouble, then he gets a pass, but no extra credit for the gallop out.

Horses are, or at least should be, trained to run hard through the wire. A horse still running so hard after the wire didn't effectively use his energy during the actual race. This then leads me to believe that this horse is, until proved differently, one that is going to consistently make great runs for second and third. Now as an exacta player, I love guys like that because they are so overbet to win that you end up getting a little better price with them in second than you should. But if a horse like this is what I think he is, he's a huge money-burning loser. Gallop outs may be the most overrated observation in the game when dealing with non-winning horses. Despite what some think, the wire is not randomly placed and everything you see in the race depends on it. After the wire is too little too late.

[luisbe]

What if your "grandma" was Bruce Jenner? Than what? :D

Who "won" or who "lost" a race had no bearing on the talent of the horse, the wire is just a randomly selected place where they decide at that moment how to pay off the pari mutuels....its not something you need to use to judge talent of the athletes.

Or, you can if you want, not going to try and talk you out of it.

Sense of humor: least common of the senses.

[classhandicapper]

This horse would be very likely to move forward regardless of the trip and gallop out. Baffert wins a lot first time out, but that's because he has so many extremely talented horses. He usually sends them out a notch short of their best first time out.

I like good gallop outs, but I don't spend any time on it. I notice the extremes in either direction while watching races. I'm not sure how much value it has except perhaps on rare occasions.

IMO you have to view them in light of whether the other horses were just slowing down or the key horse was exhibiting that it still had a lot of energy left after the wire. Sometimes they will also ride a horse out after the wire because it's prepping for a longer race. They might even say it in the press if it's a high profile horse.

Jockeys time their moves relative to the other horses, not to maximize a horse's final time. We all notice when they move too soon, but sometimes they move too late or simply have a monster under them.

[Stillriledup]

Let's put it this way. The comment I was objecting to and making a statement about was solely based on a gallop out. My position is, if a horse had enough energy to run more strongly after the end of the race than the winner, then where was the use of this energy during the race? If there was some huge trouble, then he gets a pass, but no extra credit for the gallop out.

Horses are, or at least should be, trained to run hard through the wire. A horse still running so hard after the wire didn't effectively use his energy during the actual race. This then leads me to believe that this horse is, until proved differently, one that is going to consistently make great runs for second and third. Now as an exacta player, I love guys like that because they are so overbet to win that you end up getting a little better price with them in second than you should. But if a horse like this is what I think he is, he's a huge money-burning loser. Gallop outs may be the most overrated observation in the game when dealing with non-winning horses. Despite what some think, the wire is not randomly placed and everything you see in the race depends on it. After the wire is too little too late.

This is a good post and i get what you're saying.

This might be a different case because this was a first time starter who might have been "learning" on the job, thus, he might be able to more effectively use that energy going forward, so he can use his "Gallop out" energy during the race....the point your making is a good one because a lot of times, a great gallop out one race will just show the same situation going forward, a horse that gets too far back and just runs too late and looks good after the wire.

I like to take all that stuff into consideration and learn the "Quirks" of an athlete.

Gallop outs like this can really get tricky to evaluate because other riders are "Easing up" and sometimes the jock who is trying to "Educate" the first time starter who's flying isn't going to grab him up at the wire, he's going to get him to use that energy and keep galloping strongly, especially if its a potential stakes horse who is going to be in 2 turn races someday.

This horse really caught my eye in his run in the final 100 yards, he was moving so swiftly in that part of the race (before the wire) that i thought this is a pretty good horse, the gallop out was a bonus but i would prefer he use that energy IN the race by keeping closer to the pace rather than showing a burst after the race is over.

A lot of it has to do with price too..if this horse is 4-5 next time, which he might be depending on the field, the gallop out is something i might think was a factor in his low price as everyone saw it, if he's not 4-5 and seems to be offering some value, i'll say to myself "hmmm....he's 4-1, i loved that gallop out last time" and i would consider using that gallop out as a positive because of the price.

It all comes down to learning the horse and knowing how he races, why he's galloping out strongly too, you are right to assume that if a horse closes like that and then has a big gallop out, he might be a horse who had that gallop out because he was slow during the early part of the race and thus had a bunch of unused energy to exert at the end.

[cj]

Running now...7-5...at 6.5f...nowhere at the finish.

The winner, at 15-1, pressed the pace in the same race as the horse mentioned above before tiring.

[OTM Al]

So how was the gallop out?

[letswastemoney]

The second place horse Smart Transition should be a good one. Son of Zardana. He just seemed a bit hesitant to slip through the rail.

[OTM Al]

The second place horse Smart Transition should be a good one. Son of Zardana. He just seemed a bit hesitant to slip through the rail.

Was he a first timer? First timers often won't do that. If he's not a first timer though I wouldn't put much stock in him. Then he is called a hanger.

[letswastemoney]

Was he a first timer? First timers often won't do that. If he's not a first timer though I wouldn't put much stock in him. Then he is called a hanger.Yes, first timer from Shirreffs called Smart Transition.

I expected him to fire because Zardana won her first 3 starts in Brazil, the works looked fast and the public was betting him. He ran well enough.

[classhandicapper]

The field yesterday turned out to be a LOT stronger than the previous one.

Z Besha actually ran a better Beyer figure yesterday than last time (65 vs. 63) and still got buried. I'm sure the public was expecting a much bigger jump up than that, but even a 10 point jump and he would have 4th.