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PICSIX
01-29-2015, 10:06 AM
The following chart demonstrates how well an ADX peak has been at predicting a complete market reversal in the DJI. Now would be a good time to take a low-risk, long-term short entry.....

After posting, it looks like the chart is a little hard to see...It is a monthly chart beginning in 2006 to current.

Ocala Mike
01-29-2015, 11:51 AM
Looks like a nice Head and Shoulders formation in the Dow to me; probably wouldn't want to be long this market any more, but what do I know - I'm a horseplayer!

reckless
01-29-2015, 12:57 PM
Looks like a nice Head and Shoulders formation in the Dow to me; probably wouldn't want to be long this market any more, but what do I know - I'm a horseplayer!

You probably know this as well as anyone but for those that might not know this ... the qualities that make for a good horseplayer are also qualities that work well for those that invest in the stock market.

RaceBookJoe
01-29-2015, 03:01 PM
nice negative divergence in that chart

badcompany
01-29-2015, 05:52 PM
Still bullish, as I have been, here, for well over two years.

See no reason to consider selling long term holdings.

PICSIX
01-29-2015, 06:06 PM
Still bullish, as I have been, here, for well over two years.

See no reason to consider selling long term holdings.

Agree as long as the prices of your individual holdings remain above their 10-week moving averages :ThmbUp:

reckless
01-29-2015, 08:16 PM
I sold a ton of stock late today before the close. I will probably regret it but c'est le vie. Some stocks that I sold, Sysco, John Wiley, Fox News, Oracle, Pfizer, Intel, Gannett, plus half of my Hewlett-Packard and Apple are holdings that I have had since 2009-12, and with Pfizer, Apple and Gannett, even longer.

I fortunately made a ton with all of them but I just don't like what I am seeing right now. Companies borrowing by the billions to institute stock buybacks solely to mask slowing sales and profits, big insider selling, the world-wide depression being ignored by the media, oil no where near a bottom, the strong dollar hurting the multi-nationals, the chaos in the geo-political world, world-wide QEs, and much, much more 'sell' signals.

I am not a bear or a doom and gloomer but things just don't jive well with the way I do things. We could be in the beginning of a market and an economic melt down.

badcompany
01-29-2015, 08:41 PM
I can understand why investors would want to bail on this market. The last six months haven't exactly been my idea of a good time, from a long term investing standpoint. This type of market can be very tiring.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/68793eb4486066ad122fc11e4370b2fb_zpsefb93bae.jpg

That's exactly why you shouldn't bail, IMO.

_______
01-29-2015, 10:53 PM
I can understand why investors would want to bail on this market. The last six months haven't exactly been my idea of a good time, from a long term investing standpoint. This type of market can be very tiring.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/68793eb4486066ad122fc11e4370b2fb_zpsefb93bae.jpg

That's exactly why you shouldn't bail, IMO.

Range bound stocks can be very profitable if you are patient and the original thesis for your investment is still valid.

You collect a dividend and reinvest it. Eventually when the stock moves up, you own more of it.

I've never been good at timing the market and don't know of anyone who has done it successfully over a long period.

badcompany
01-30-2015, 01:02 PM
Range bound stocks can be very profitable if you are patient and the original thesis for your investment is still valid.

You collect a dividend and reinvest it. Eventually when the stock moves up, you own more of it.

I've never been good at timing the market and don't know of anyone who has done it successfully over a long period.

My tactic with long term investments, stocks I have no plans to sell, is to reward success. When they make new highs, I buy a little more. The ones that don't move, I begin to liquidate slowly.

With this system, you eventually end up with a good list.

ReplayRandall
01-30-2015, 01:26 PM
My tactic with long term investments, stocks I have no plans to sell, is to reward success. When they make new highs, I buy a little more. The ones that don't move, I begin to liquidate slowly.

With this system, you eventually end up with a good list.

This appears counter-intuitive to me, as your cost average per share goes up to it's full maximum. I will notate the new high, and will buy more only when the stock has at least a 5% pull-back from that high, or any further drop......BC, give a little detail on why you buy at a new top, especially in today's over-inflated market......

badcompany
01-30-2015, 01:52 PM
This appears counter-intuitive to me, as your cost average per share goes up to it's full maximum. I will notate the new high, and will buy more only when the stock has at least a 5% pull-back from that high, or any further drop......BC, give a little detail on why you buy at a new top, especially in today's over-inflated market......

Every system has its flaws. Buying at new highs does raise the cost per share average, but once a stock is a big winner and the new purchases are a small percentage of the total amount of stock owned, the average only goes up marginally.

The flaw of your system is that you're waiting for an event that might not happen.

Let's say a stock makes a new high @100, and you decide to wait for that 5% pullback before you buy more. There is the possibility that the stock keeps on going up to the point where the 5% pullback price is still higher than the original new high. In this example, the stock could go to 110. A 5% pullback brings the stock price to $104.5.

ReplayRandall
01-30-2015, 01:57 PM
Every system has its flaws. Buying at new highs does raise the cost per share average, but once a stock is a big winner and the new purchases are a small percentage of the total amount of stock owned, the average only goes up marginally.

The flaw of your system is that you're waiting for an event that might not happen.

Let's say a stock makes a new high @100, and you decide to wait for that 5% pullback before you buy more. There is the possibility that the stock keeps on going up to the point where the 5% pullback price is still higher than the original new high. In this example, the stock could go to 110. A 5% pullback brings the stock price to $104.5.

Ok, but if the stock goes to 110, aren't you buying more at that new high?

reckless
01-30-2015, 02:01 PM
My tactic with long term investments, stocks I have no plans to sell, is to reward success. When they make new highs, I buy a little more. The ones that don't move, I begin to liquidate slowly.

With this system, you eventually end up with a good list.

badcompany, I have my very own criteria for investment as well, but based solely on fundamentals. Just like your work, my system also generates a good list and stock portfolio. And like your above comment, when the companies don't execute or slow down, I begin to liquidate, which I did yesterday--a lot.

The metrics I use are simple, yet I hardly hear them seriously discussed much on CNBC or even read about it much.

I require the following before I buy a stock, in order of importance:

Consistent long term growth in free cash flow.

ROI/ROE, return on investment/equity, that averages 20 per cent, and better, regularly achieved on a consistent, long-term basis.

Price and free cash flow yield (stock price divided by FCF), which are attached at the hip. Depending on the company, 12-15 per cent FCF yield makes for a screaming buy.

Low and nominal debt levels. High debt creates a false ROE signal.

Based on all this, some no-brainer stocks I have owned in the past (and still own in most cases), are well known companies probably not on Jim Cramer's list: Lorillard, Hewlett Packard, Microsoft, Gannett, Pfizer, Lilly, Exelis, Apple and McKesson Corp.

I liquidated close to 75 per cent of all my positions yesterday. Many of these companies ran up so much these past 3-5 years that they don't 'plus out' on all my metrics today. Even Apple now has billions of debt that it didn't have at all just two years ago. Gannett also took on loads of debt these past 4-5 years that it never had, and with all the engineering and Icahn stuff, pushed the stock price to levels that I feel I had to sell into.

As I said yesterday, I am not a doom and gloomer but I think the market is in a precarious place right now, thanks to geo-political turmoil, currency debauchery via QEs, lack of demand and slow economic growth here and especially abroad, the too strong dollar has begun making our multinational companies less competitive, the ruble is this close to cratering, and oil prices will not stop dropping until the Saudis stop their over-producing. And no one knows when that will happen because the Saudis want to kill off all the following: the Russian and Iranian oil industrys, the US natural gas producers, Syria, and even Tesla Motors, by extension.

I probably am going to regret some of this selling, yes, truth be told. But I believe in my opinion that the current geo-political story world-wide will become the story of the 21st century, also hurting stock prices as the economic slow down/recession/depression plays out. The economic and political stories are also attached at the hip.

The future is playing out in front of us right here, right now.

ReplayRandall
01-30-2015, 02:11 PM
Spot-on post, Reckless. Nice summary... :ThmbUp:

badcompany
01-30-2015, 02:13 PM
Ok, but if the stock goes to 110, aren't you buying more at that new high?

It depends on your criteria. If you say you're gonna buy more every time the stock increases 10% above a former new high purchase, then, yes.

The point is that you're putting more money into your winners and less into your losers as indicated by the continual making or not making of new highs.

PICSIX
01-30-2015, 02:22 PM
It depends on your criteria. If you say you're gonna buy more every time the stock increases 10% above a former new high purchase, then, yes.

The point is that you're putting more money into your winners and less into your losers as indicated by the continual making or not making of new highs.

Many successful (documented) investors cost average up (not down) :ThmbUp:

ReplayRandall
01-30-2015, 02:27 PM
Many successful (documented) investors cost average up (not down) :ThmbUp:

Not in this market.......Reckless has it right for the foreseeable future....Caution light is BRIGHT, be more careful than usual.

badcompany
01-30-2015, 02:35 PM
Many successful (documented) investors cost average up (not down) :ThmbUp:

I'm not saying mine is the best way or the only way, just that it's the best way FOR ME.

PICSIX
01-30-2015, 02:35 PM
It depends on your criteria. If you say you're gonna buy more every time the stock increases 10% above a former new high purchase, then, yes.

The point is that you're putting more money into your winners and less into your losers as indicated by the continual making or not making of new highs.

Are you familiar with Point & Figure Charts? They suit the long-term trader.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AAPL,PFTADANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3 !!!2!20%5D&pref=G

badcompany
01-30-2015, 02:42 PM
Are you familiar with Point & Figure Charts? They suit the long-term trader.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AAPL,PFTADANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3 !!!2!20%5D&pref=G

Yeah, I've checked them out, but like most indicators, they tend to complicate a relatively simple equation for a long term investor:

Up = Good
Down = Bad

whodoyoulike
01-30-2015, 06:13 PM
... Even Apple now has billions of debt that it didn't have at all just two years ago...
As I said yesterday, I am not a doom and gloomer but I think the market is in a precarious place right now, ...

The future is playing out in front of us right here, right now.

Good post. Btw, I asked in another thread but, received no replies.

Why did Apple borrow billion$ recently and how did they utilize those funds? Since, they have many more billion$ in their treasury for years, it doesn't make any sense to me.

reckless
01-30-2015, 06:15 PM
Spot-on post, Reckless. Nice summary... :ThmbUp:

Thanks Randall, I appreciate it.

I have learned so much from all you guys on the Financial side of the street in the PA neighborhood. :)

All I am trying to do is to help out in some small way and contribute a bit to the community.

Ocala Mike
01-30-2015, 06:18 PM
I think the market is in a precarious place right now, thanks to geo-political turmoil, currency debauchery via QEs, lack of demand and slow economic growth here and especially abroad, the too strong dollar has begun making our multinational companies less competitive, the ruble is this close to cratering, and oil prices will not stop dropping until the Saudis stop their over-producing. And no one knows when that will happen because the Saudis want to kill off all the following: the Russian and Iranian oil industrys, the US natural gas producers, Syria, and even Tesla Motors, by extension.

I probably am going to regret some of this selling, yes, truth be told. But I believe in my opinion that the current geo-political story world-wide will become the story of the 21st century, also hurting stock prices as the economic slow down/recession/depression plays out. The economic and political stories are also attached at the hip.

[/B]

There's your "wall of worry," fellas, nicely stated. Of course, the old saying is that bull markets climb a wall of worry. I'm glad I'm out of the market.

badcompany
01-30-2015, 06:25 PM
Thanks Randall, I appreciate it.

I have learned so much from all you guys on the Financial side of the street in the PA neighborhood. :)

All I am trying to do is to help out in some small way and contribute a bit to the community.

Looking at your stocks, MCK is sore spot for me. I had bought it about two years ago, got shaken out, never pulled the trigger to get back in when I should have, and have been regretting it ever since. :(

Interesting stuff on your method of FA. The difference in our styles is that I would never sell because the market "looks expensive." To me that's just opinion. Price is a fact.

badcompany
01-30-2015, 06:42 PM
There's your "wall of worry," fellas, nicely stated. Of course, the old saying is that bull markets climb a wall of worry. I'm glad I'm out of the market.

One of the best comments I've heard about the stock market is that you get paid to tolerate volatility.

The reason for this is that the market doesn't allow you to consistently cherry pick the good times. So, either you accept the bad with the good or sit on the sidelines. The more cautious investors do the latter until the market has had a big run, then they jump in. That's when the market's fishermen, the market makers viz. the big banks, pull the net closed. It's been going on longer than any of us have been alive.

And there are some really old people on this board :D

_______
01-30-2015, 07:54 PM
Good post. Btw, I asked in another thread but, received no replies.

Why did Apple borrow billion$ recently and how did they utilize those funds? Since, they have many more billion$ in their treasury for years, it doesn't make any sense to me.

Much of Apples money is offshore and if it were repatriated under current tax law would generate a 35% tax bill. So they float bonds at historically low yields to repurchase shares and pay dividends.

What I want to know is who buys a 5 year Apple bond at 1.076% when the stock is still yielding 1.6% with the payout ratio under 25%? That dividend is today after the run up in the stock. It was probably more like 1.8% when the euro bonds were issued a few a months back.

The answer to your question is that it's cheaper for Apple to sell bonds to idiots than repatriate it's cash hoard.

reckless
01-30-2015, 08:06 PM
Good post. Btw, I asked in another thread but, received no replies.

Why did Apple borrow billion$ recently and how did they utilize those funds? Since, they have many more billion$ in their treasury for years, it doesn't make any sense to me.

There are two main reasons why Apple borrowed all that money when there was literally $30-40 billion of so cash, and growing, already in the till.

Reason No.1 was Carl Icahn; reason No. 2 was the US financial markets and its low interest rate economy.

IMO, I believe Tim Cook was 'scared' of Icahn. There was no real reason for him to be 'scared', it's just a feeling I had. The borrowings was used to pay a dividend and buy back common stock, both actions that Icahn wanted and that kept him at bay, so to speak.

In 2012, America's greatest company, Apple Inc., had zero debt and a paid a cash dividend of $2.65 per share. There were also 940 million shares outstanding.

In 2013, Apple's dividend was increased to $11.40 and the buy back made the outstanding shares to be lowered to just under 900 million shares outstanding.

In 2014, the dividend was increased again, to $12.20, and the outstanding share count was lowered still to about 875 million shares outstanding.

(These numbers listed were before a 7-1 stock split in June 2014).

So, financial engineering and shareholder governance was a reason why the borrowing began. Note that financial engineering isn't always a 'bad' thing. If done right, it's actually a great thing. Tim Cook is the greatest CEO in corporate history, if you ask me. He did it right from the get-go.

The second reason is somewhat simple but please understand I am not an accountant, CPA, anything like that.

Here is the second--and brilliant--reason for the heavy borrowing by Apple, despite having tons of cash on hand and a business model that's over the top: the US Fed policy of near zero interest rates.

Again, let's say Apple now has $40-50 billion in cold hard cash in the bank right this second.

In any bank, what's the current interest rate these banks pay to their best and biggest customers? 1%, 2-3%, 5 per cent? So, Apple went to the bond market and sold a few billion dollars in bonds, costing Apple about 2% interest a year for 20-30 years. And their cash earns 'near zero'. Simple as it sounds, the numbers 2% and 'near zero' are very important to remember.

What would Apple do with all that money, especially when they have billions already?

Well, Apple must invest it, of course. More so when the company is doing great and cash is plentiful.

Well Apple did invest those billions -- they invested in Apple common stock when they bought back all that stock I noted earlier. But, why do that?

Well, the company's business metrics are outstanding, that's why:

The last 2-3 years Apple has had a return on total capital (ROIC) averaging 30 per cent!! Their net profit margins averaged 21 per cent. Apple also retains over 22 per cent to common equity. Again, not only great but outstanding, to say the least.

So, once more, in the bank Apple's cash on hand earns near zero or 1 percent or so; the cost of their borrowings are 2 per cent of so. But by buying back their own stock, Apple earns a ROE of 30 per cent; a ROIC of 25+ per cent, not to mention a free cash flow money machine that grew by 58 % these past five years!

What other company out there could Apple buy that will remotely approach the success and return rates of Apple itself? Not many, I guarantee.

I do 'project' Apple to earn about $8 (post split) in Free Cash Flow. At about $90-95 or even less -- I'll be buying Apple stock again. I still own shares as I mentioned earlier. But a pull back will be most welcomed by me. Understand, it may never go as low at $95 but c'est le vie.

reckless
01-30-2015, 08:14 PM
There's your "wall of worry," fellas, nicely stated. Of course, the old saying is that bull markets climb a wall of worry. I'm glad I'm out of the market.

Mike, the reason I have this very own wall that worries me, is that the business and financial press seem to be ignoring or over looking all these potential problems.

Sure, many of these things get mentioned -- daily, but never as part of the collective.

Has CNBC or Bloomberg or even the Wall Street Journal in recent months talk about the demands by the Germans to our once-great USA gov't wanting a return of their gold? I haven't.... when news like that becomes a regular item, when (if) drops below $20.... all hell will break use. And if the USA says they don't have the German gold.... take a guess what happens next.

That's why I sold a ton of stock the other day.... my worries and all, not what's out there in the general news that's fed to us.

whodoyoulike
01-30-2015, 08:40 PM
Thanks for the replies. I haven't been following Apple so when someone else mentioned in another thread, they were buying, I noticed the $16 billion in L.T. debt at the time and all the cash held.

I would imagine Apple is capable of investing their cash at greater than a 0 - 1% return as part of good business practices. On the surface to me it appeared similar to having credit card debt although you have enough liquid funds available. Financial engineering is great but, you really have to know what you're doing and your assumptions have to be fairly accurate (considering your time frame in this case is 20 - 30 years).

I'm wondering out loud if it's worked out or not.

Again, thanks for your responses.

whodoyoulike
02-02-2015, 07:35 PM
A timely follow-up to my Apple bond issuing question.


http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/apple-plans-sell-65-billion-bonds-28673794

Now, I'm wondering if Apple's financial crew uses MS Excel as a tool in their modeling process.

Is it just possible someone from Apple reads this site?

reckless
02-02-2015, 09:33 PM
All the reasons I posted earlier about Apple utilizing the bond money and their free cash still exists. . . :).

But, this time, I don't like it, to be honest.

My gut feeling is the bond money raised this time will be used to buy back shares to replace the shares sold by insiders thru their stock options.

In the past 6 months, Apple insiders sold 1.5.million shares of stock.

whodoyoulike
02-02-2015, 09:43 PM
I think the article indicated the proceeds would be used to repurchase stock and dividends.

I don't follow your comment "to replace shares sold by insiders". I may be wrong but, I believe when the company grants stock options, it increases o/s at that time.

reckless
02-03-2015, 03:17 PM
I think the article indicated the proceeds would be used to repurchase stock and dividends.

I don't follow your comment "to replace shares sold by insiders". I may be wrong but, I believe when the company grants stock options, it increases o/s at that time.

Companies issue stock options to executives and assorted insiders at a price (usually much much lower than current prices). When the insiders exercise those options, they 'buy' the shares from company treasury and sell those same shares on the market, imo.

Too often, the company buys back shares in the open market so there wouldn't be much dilution. Plus, for PR purposes it makes the general public believe they are shareholder friendly when that might be an overly generous accolade.

Apple still manages their business better than almost all of the others, don't misunderstand me. But too many companies are not that shareholder conscious and abuse the benefit.

At one time Microsoft was one such abusive company. In fairness, they are getting better in the compliance department but they still dump too many shares on the open market.

Utilities, tech companies, banks and drug companies are big abusers of the stock option/stock buyback game, speaking in very general terms.

PICSIX
02-04-2015, 07:29 PM
Oil down 9% today and the news about Greece should make for a wild ride in the markets tomorrow.

badcompany
02-13-2015, 05:49 PM
The following chart demonstrates how well an ADX peak has been at predicting a complete market reversal in the DJI. Now would be a good time to take a low-risk, long-term short entry.....

After posting, it looks like the chart is a little hard to see...It is a monthly chart beginning in 2006 to current.


Are you sure the chart isn't upside down? ;)

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/ed69ab09671165b422f222208067ba09_zps95393bff.jpg

_______
02-15-2015, 08:19 PM
Companies issue stock options to executives and assorted insiders at a price (usually much much lower than current prices). When the insiders exercise those options, they 'buy' the shares from company treasury and sell those same shares on the market, imo.

Too often, the company buys back shares in the open market so there wouldn't be much dilution. Plus, for PR purposes it makes the general public believe they are shareholder friendly when that might be an overly generous accolade.

Apple still manages their business better than almost all of the others, don't misunderstand me. But too many companies are not that shareholder conscious and abuse the benefit.

At one time Microsoft was one such abusive company. In fairness, they are getting better in the compliance department but they still dump too many shares on the open market.

Utilities, tech companies, banks and drug companies are big abusers of the stock option/stock buyback game, speaking in very general terms.

reckless-

I don't think issuing options at a price below the strike is common practice. Mostly options issued to bonus level employees (including executives) are out of the money when issued with the idea that they motivate both loyalty and performance.

If any public company is issuing in the money options to employees, that would be to motivate what?

Your larger point that buybacks need to be weighed in relation to share dilution is completely valid. Amgen is a company I own that essentially treads water on its buybacks but that is because of stock grants to below bonus level employees, not options granted to executives.

I think it's wise to have a handle on overall share count when weighing the impact of buybacks vs. dividends vs. capex but any impact seen isn't usually because executives are being given newly minted money.

The issue of how far out of money the options granted to executives are is also a valid point of discussion. But in the money options at the time of the grant would be a huge red flag to any investor and I don't think any company could get away with it for long.

PICSIX
02-16-2015, 08:09 AM
Are you sure the chart isn't upside down? ;)

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/ed69ab09671165b422f222208067ba09_zps95393bff.jpg

Sure looks that way :blush: After being stopped I made these "pilot" buys...

Date Symbol Buy Quantity Initial Stop $ Risk
2/12/2015 VNTV $37.54 530 $34.00 $1,876.89
2/12/2015 NOW $75.16 260 $69.00 $1,600.40
2/12/2015 V $270.21 75 $240.00 $2,265.93
2/12/2015 TNET $35.66 560 $32.80 $1,597.44
2/13/2015 EGRX $20.99 900 $18.50 $2,241.90
2/13/2015 MNK $114.89 175 $105.70 $1,608.41
2/13/2015 INGN $32.71 600 $30.09 $1,569.99

badcompany
02-16-2015, 12:06 PM
There's definitely an upside breakout underway. Whether the move is for real or not remains to be seen.

I was thinking there would be another shakeout, but I've changed my mind. This last move up, the forth in less than two months, has been on light volume, meaning that the house been able to shake out enough stock so that they can run up prices without excessive outside participation. My guess is that the house wants to get prices up before June, when the Fed is allegedly going to begin rates hikes. At that point, we should see some fireworks, in addition to those on the 4th of July.

So, I've taken a couple of long trading positions, with reasonably tight stops, in case I'm wrong.

When I talk like this to people in my real life, I'm often asked, "Who's the house?"

Here's a hint. Would you want to be on the same side of the trade as this group, or against them?

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/26f82f24122cec084fa40e78d08e0b41_zps98747716.jpg

ReplayRandall
02-16-2015, 01:02 PM
There's definitely an upside breakout underway. Whether the move is for real or not remains to be seen.

I was thinking there would be another shakeout, but I've changed my mind. This last move up, the forth in less than two months, has been on light volume, meaning that the house been able to shake out enough stock so that they can run up prices without excessive outside participation. My guess is that the house wants to get prices up before June, when the Fed is allegedly going to begin rates hikes. At that point, we should see some fireworks, in addition to those on the 4th of July.

So, I've taken a couple of long trading positions, with reasonably tight stops, in case I'm wrong.

When I talk like this to people in my real life, I'm often asked, "Who's the house?"

Here's a hint. Would you want to be on the same side of the trade as this group, or against them?

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/26f82f24122cec084fa40e78d08e0b41_zps98747716.jpg
Did you notice the major player who was conspicuously absent from that top 10 list?

badcompany
02-16-2015, 01:08 PM
Did you notice the major player who was conspicuously absent from that top 10 list?

You? ;)


But, seriously folks. Of the big banks, Wells Fargo.


Occasionally, the mainstream media gives the game away:


Biggest Banks Tighten Grip on Currency Trading

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Foreign-exchange trading is consolidating among the five biggest banks, a trend that may cut the number of competitors in the $5.3 trillion-a-day market, according to Greenwich Associates.

The largest currency dealers are Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG, and they controlled about 53 percent of global volume in 2013, the Stamford, Connecticut-based research firm said today in a report. That compares with about 39 percent for the top five in 2005.

“A slowdown in trading volumes and the loss of market share to larger rivals is making it difficult for many dealers to sustain the level of volume required to support their costly infrastructures and maintain profitability,” Greenwich said.

The largest banks won business as their closet competition -- the sixth- through 10th-biggest dealers -- saw their market share drop to 22 percent last year from a peak of 27 percent in 2011, the research firm said. The next 10 banks “also experienced significant declines,” Greenwich said.

The world’s biggest financial market is being reshaped by electronic trading, regulation and other trends, Greenwich said. Those elements are likely to remain in place in the near term, further ramping up the concentration of transactions among a few dealers for the next six months to a year, it said.

badcompany
02-16-2015, 01:35 PM
HSBC, as well. I guess that's who you are talking about.

I view the big banks as freight trains. You want to be in one of the cars, as opposed to on the tracks with one of them coming at you.

ReplayRandall
02-16-2015, 01:37 PM
HSBC, as well. I guess that's who you are talking about.

I view the big banks as freight trains. You want to be in one of the cars, as opposed to on the tracks with one of them coming at you.
Give that man a Silver Dollar.... ;)

badcompany
02-16-2015, 01:44 PM
Give that man a Silver Dollar.... ;)

That said, they're just a little further down the list:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/5773fdcb250af7192ff5b25797a7069c_zps24e7282b.jpg

ReplayRandall
02-16-2015, 01:49 PM
That said, they're just a little further down the list:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/5773fdcb250af7192ff5b25797a7069c_zps24e7282b.jpg
You don't miss much, do you?.. :cool:

badcompany
02-16-2015, 02:36 PM
You don't miss much, do you?.. :cool:


Not workin' today, and it's like 10 degrees outside. Lot of free time for research ;)

_______
02-16-2015, 03:56 PM
I hate days like today with the major markets closed. I've been watching oil futures in Europe but it's no substitute.

I'll be up early tomorrow morning for my fix.

I'd mention the temperature here but I don't want to piss off badcompany or anyone else in the east.

badcompany
02-16-2015, 04:30 PM
I hate days like today with the major markets closed. I've been watching oil futures in Europe but it's no substitute.

I'll be up early tomorrow morning for my fix.

I'd mention the temperature here but I don't want to piss off badcompany or anyone else in the east.

I'm hearing many Hedge Funds are piling into the long oil trade.

Might explain volume drying up in the equity markets.

Don't worry about the weather. We're up to 25, here. :ThmbUp:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/7c3def0eeb553d8bbaa950994b214eec_zps6e9a4c33.jpg (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/7c3def0eeb553d8bbaa950994b214eec_zps6e9a4c33.jpg.h tml)

Saratoga_Mike
02-16-2015, 04:45 PM
I'm hearing many Hedge Funds are piling into the long oil trade.

Might explain volume drying up in the equity markets.

]

Huge stretch

badcompany
02-16-2015, 05:10 PM
I'm all ears for an alternative explanation.

Look at the chart I posted. There has definitely been a significant drop off in volume in the past week.

badcompany
02-16-2015, 05:29 PM
Mike,

A lot of Hedge Funds are on the ropes (see below). As a horseplayer you know what happens when you get down. There's the temptation to press.

For all the talk about Algos and Systematic Trading there are still humans making the decisions about where to put the money.


Hedge Funds See Worst Year for Closures Since 2009

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are shutting at a rate not seen since the financial crisis, as many managers post disappointing returns and an elite group of firms dominate money raising.

The $37 billion Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP is the latest firm to close a fund. Last week it pulled the plug on its $630 million commodity fund managed by Stephane Nicolas after it had tumbled 4.3 percent this year through the end of October, according to a person with knowledge of the firm.

In the first half of the year, 461 funds closed, Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. said. If that pace continues, it will be the worst year for closures since 2009, when there were 1,023 liquidations.

“Most hedge funds have not performed extraordinarily well,” said Stewart Massey, chief investment officer at Massey Quick & Co. in Morristown, New Jersey, which invests in the private partnerships. He expects that redemptions will hit small-and medium-sized firms this year, reducing assets to a level where “they will have to make a decision whether to carry on or not.”

Hedge funds, on average, have returned just 2 percent in 2014, their worst performance since 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Smaller funds have struggled to grow as institutional investors flocked to the biggest players. In the first half of 2014, 10 firms including Citadel LLC and Millennium Management LLC accounted for about a third of the $57 billion that came into the industry.

PICSIX
02-17-2015, 10:54 AM
Sure looks that way :blush: After being stopped I made these "pilot" buys...

Date Symbol Buy Quantity Initial Stop $ Risk
2/12/2015 VNTV $37.54 530 $34.00 $1,876.89
2/12/2015 NOW $75.16 260 $69.00 $1,600.40
2/12/2015 V $270.21 75 $240.00 $2,265.93
2/12/2015 TNET $35.66 560 $32.80 $1,597.44
2/13/2015 EGRX $20.99 900 $18.50 $2,241.90
2/13/2015 MNK $114.89 175 $105.70 $1,608.41
2/13/2015 INGN $32.71 600 $30.09 $1,569.99

EGRX explodes early.....stop moved to BE....free trade now :ThmbUp:

badcompany
02-17-2015, 12:19 PM
EGRX explodes early.....stop moved to BE....free trade now :ThmbUp:

I read they announced a licensing deal with Teva. Sweet upside move for a new purchase. Always nice to free roll.

PICSIX
02-18-2015, 02:40 PM
I read they announced a licensing deal with Teva. Sweet upside move for a new purchase. Always nice to free roll.

Stop moved to $31...what a ride so far :ThmbUp:

Tape Reader
02-18-2015, 04:59 PM
Stop moved to $31...what a ride so far :ThmbUp:

Congrats to you. That is a beauty!

PICSIX
02-18-2015, 05:20 PM
Congrats to you. That is a beauty!

Thanks, closing price was $36.84 and I moved my stop to $32.75. I really hope to see some consolidation without too steep of a decline, so I can double up. I expected to see some profit taking at the end of the day but the price just kept going :ThmbUp:

badcompany
02-18-2015, 05:45 PM
Biotech appears to be breaking out. This sector has led the lead pretty much every rally for the past three years. IMO this bodes well for the market as a whole.

For a short term trade, you can play the ETF below, or BIB which is the Ultra.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/d45e9915afdd98d9eb1df50d473c2a84_zps1862a60c.jpg

PICSIX
02-20-2015, 01:36 PM
Thanks, closing price was $36.84 and I moved my stop to $32.75. I really hope to see some consolidation without too steep of a decline, so I can double up. I expected to see some profit taking at the end of the day but the price just kept going :ThmbUp:

My stop at $37.20 was hit yesterday. 600 shares filled @ 37.20 & 300 @ 37.00.

My wife says I just need to find one of these per month :lol: :lol: :lol:

badcompany
02-20-2015, 06:31 PM
My stop at $37.20 was hit yesterday. 600 shares filled @ 37.20 & 300 @ 37.00.

My wife says I just need to find one of these per month :lol: :lol: :lol:

You might be late to the dance on this one, but it's been a winner so far.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/2651e1ab64081d79d4374981a995697e_zps3b8316fc.jpg

badcompany
03-05-2015, 11:51 AM
Another Biotech breakout, today. For the past few years, this has been Bullish for the market as a whole:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/160afc56f8eabcbf36285e21d7103d42_zpse8f273be.jpg

ReplayRandall
03-20-2015, 03:38 PM
The "melt-up" is almost finished and now the market is topping off today. Notice the time of my post and watch the remainder of market movement in today's session. After session concludes, notate daily volume for each exchange. The last 7 trading days of the month are going to make today's volume figures look like minnows, compared to the whale of volatility and volume you'll see concluding this financial quarter. When top fully blows off, there is NOTHING underneath to stop a full-fledged correction of at least 20%......Just my last 2 cents.

Tape Reader
03-20-2015, 08:25 PM
The "melt-up" is almost finished and now the market is topping off today. Notice the time of my post and watch the remainder of market movement in today's session. After session concludes, notate daily volume for each exchange. The last 7 trading days of the month are going to make today's volume figures look like minnows, compared to the whale of volatility and volume you'll see concluding this financial quarter. When top fully blows off, there is NOTHING underneath to stop a full-fledged correction of at least 20%......Just my last 2 cents.

Agree 100%. But my late day SPY weekly put expired at 1 cent.

Ocala Mike
03-20-2015, 10:03 PM
The trading floor is littered with expiring put options right now, Tape Reader. Would hope that most of them were purchased as "insurance."

Does look like there was a "buyoff" today, but looks can deceive in this market.

Tape Reader
03-20-2015, 10:44 PM
The trading floor is littered with expiring put options right now, Tape Reader. Would hope that most of them were purchased as "insurance."

Does look like there was a "buyoff" today, but looks can deceive in this market.

It was a bet that I do frequently on Fridays. Luv the leverage.

badcompany
03-21-2015, 09:43 AM
I'm expecting a pullback, as well. I can't recall a move based on the Fed's jawboning ever following through.

Long term, still bullish.

If you look a little more deeply at PEs, you'll notice that the extended multiples are in the most defensive stocks, PG is an example. Seems like, after the crash, the conservative money poured into these stocks. I would expect to see consumer staples and utilities continue to underperform going forward, with growth stocks continuing to do well.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/f7f42f932d9432899c1904e9fc25e6a9_zps77bbb7a3.jpg

ReplayRandall
03-25-2015, 02:25 PM
Today is looking like another -250 Dow dive. NASDAQ getting walloped for a fat -95, so far.......Is this a shake-out, or the beginning of a bigger slide to come? :eek:

reckless
03-25-2015, 02:47 PM
Today is looking like another -250 Dow dive. NASDAQ getting walloped for a fat -95, so far.......Is this a shake-out, or the beginning of a bigger slide to come? :eek:

Late this morning, I put in two small buy bids for Harris (HRS) and Viacom (VIAB) ... just moments later they were quickly filled.

I knew right then and there it was a bad move on my part so I left the house aggravated. :bang: :)

And, now, the first thing I see here is your post, Randall, and the Dow at about -250. :) :bang:

badcompany
03-25-2015, 04:09 PM
Today is looking like another -250 Dow dive. NASDAQ getting walloped for a fat -95, so far.......Is this a shake-out, or the beginning of a bigger slide to come? :eek:

This might offer a clue. I know Oil is up today, but this is a heavily shorted stock.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/aec3c07aeef459648ce0c10b4bcce59c_zpscbm10cso.jpg

ReplayRandall
03-25-2015, 04:14 PM
This might offer a clue. I know Oil is up today, but this is a heavily shorted stock.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/aec3c07aeef459648ce0c10b4bcce59c_zpscbm10cso.jpg
The best part of your post is the Stallone quote used for your signature... :cool:

badcompany
03-25-2015, 04:27 PM
The best part of your post is the Stallone quote used for your signature... :cool:


I need that type of inspiration on a day like this :(

ReplayRandall
03-25-2015, 04:51 PM
I need that type of inspiration on a day like this :(
You knew this was coming.....you even agreed with me in post #65. Why so glum, Chum??

badcompany
03-25-2015, 05:47 PM
You knew this was coming.....you even agreed with me in post #65. Why so glum, Chum??

I'm not gonna sell my long term holding over a short term move. As far as trading it, this timeframe is too short for me. To me playing 3-5% moves is like betting Show.

badcompany
03-30-2015, 06:20 PM
It seems like a safe time to buy is right after the suckers who bought the Fed rally get shaken out. The same thing happened back in December.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/89567bcaad9d9af987c3194854a673fd_zpsq7x4rhnd.jpg

PaceAdvantage
03-30-2015, 11:29 PM
This is a 50% retracement of the recent down move...and that's a big gap to fill...I wouldn't be buying just yet...volume wasn't that great today either...but some nice volume on that last red bar on your chart...

reckless
03-31-2015, 12:04 AM
It seems like a safe time to buy is right after the suckers who bought the Fed rally get shaken out. The same thing happened back in December.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/89567bcaad9d9af987c3194854a673fd_zpsq7x4rhnd.jpg

badcompany, why do you think this recent rally is a suckers rally? And if so, what reason would it be for the market to head down? Thanks.

PaceAdvantage
03-31-2015, 12:28 AM
badcompany, why do you think this recent rally is a suckers rally? And if so, what reason would it be for the market to head down? Thanks.I read it that he thinks just the opposite.

badcompany
03-31-2015, 01:56 AM
badcompany, why do you think this recent rally is a suckers rally? And if so, what reason would it be for the market to head down? Thanks.

The sucker play was to buy at the top right after Yellen spoke, as the market pulled back almost immediately after the excitement died down.

I'm not sure if this latest move up is for real, or not. Too early to tell. We might still test last week's bottom again. However, my stocks that took hits last week all have bounced back quickly. IMO, that's a bullish sign, as is the fact that we're bouncing off 2050, when a few months ago it was 2000.

I'm not seeing anything breaking down, internally, in the market. The strong stocks remain strong.

reckless
03-31-2015, 01:27 PM
The sucker play was to buy at the top right after Yellen spoke, as the market pulled back almost immediately after the excitement died down.

I'm not sure if this latest move up is for real, or not. Too early to tell. We might still test last week's bottom again. However, my stocks that took hits last week all have bounced back quickly. IMO, that's a bullish sign, as is the fact that we're bouncing off 2050, when a few months ago it was 2000.

I'm not seeing anything breaking down, internally, in the market. The strong stocks remain strong.

I was worried there, friend, since it sounded like you were calling me a sucker. :lol:

I had posted here about some of my buys some weeks ago, when I bought or added to my account of CBS, VIAB, LAZ, HRS, FOXA.

My last buys were done when the Dow was down big a week or so before Yellen's speech. I 'knew' she wasn't going to increase rates because the economy is still so very poor -- it's just not growing enough to warrant a rate increase. I have been ahead of the bandwagon on this despite the lies out of Wash DC and Wall Street.

We are closer to a rate hike, though, but it has more to do with the failed Central Bank QEs in Europe, China and Japan, driving the yen and euro lower and lower and in effect causing our currency to rise by default.

Interest rates will eventually rise once the dollar appreciates 30 per cent in a single year. We're about 26 per cent on average right now, give or take.

That's if everything remains as is. Geo-political issues could trump this of course and probably will.

Geo-political, near zero-growth, basic lack of demand and over production, and world-wide deflation have been the themes I have been worried about, and they have been issues that have been basically ignored by the financial press -- who have been scratching their chins worrying about Yellen's message and intent. :confused:

whodoyoulike
03-31-2015, 09:19 PM
... Geo-political, near zero-growth, basic lack of demand and over production, and world-wide deflation have been the themes I have been worried about, and they have been issues that have been basically ignored by the financial press -- who have been scratching their chins worrying about Yellen's message and intent. :confused:

I think Yellen is concerned that any Fed action may not have the desired effect on the economy since it's been so long since there has been any interest rate adjustment(s). The banks and companies have had to come up with other alternatives to conduct their business during the last 8 - 9 years that maybe any Fed action(s) will be ineffective then the Fed will have to over compensate to achieve their desired effect.

This is my major concern right now. The Fed has been hinting about raising rates for over a year. I think last summer it was supposed to be March 2015, now it could be in June or September. The economic deterioration in Europe and China isn't helping the Fed's decision.

PICSIX
04-01-2015, 08:02 AM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/something-scary-happened-stock-market-090310574.html

_______
04-01-2015, 12:01 PM
30 days?, 60? 90? 6 months? 1 year? How do you define "soon"?

My view is that we have returned to a more normal market with the volatility. I didn't understand how volatility remained so low for so long prior to 3Q 2014.

The interesting part of the article was the disclosure that the plunge took place when the 100 day was crossed. It doesn't seem like much of a stretch to assume a few algorithims were triggered.

I wouldn't be entirely surprised by a 20% decline sometime in the next year but would still put it's likelyhood as below 50/50. Most stocks aren't cheap but it's hard to make a case that there is severe overvaluation outside of a few sectors.

badcompany
04-01-2015, 03:41 PM
The overall tone of the media has been negative. To me, that's Bullish.

They keep harping on the fact that we haven't had a 10% decline in 42 months, but, this is ridiculous, as we just had a 9.8% decline this past October, as if an extra .2% is significant.

ReplayRandall
04-01-2015, 04:37 PM
Maybe someone has a better read on why Goldman Sachs is up 2% today? Just can't see it whatsoever......

PICSIX
04-01-2015, 05:12 PM
Stock "Pros" are bullish....soon may be here.

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/survey-says-stock-pros-bullish-193600306.html?.tsrc=applewf

badcompany
04-01-2015, 06:55 PM
Put on the rally caps, folks. The shakeout is almost over. Cramer is telling investors not to buy.



Jim Cramer -- Don't Panic! Wait, Then Buy Quality Stocks Cheap



NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- April has started the way March ended -- stocks declining, the S&P 500 down 0.5% so far on the first day of the second quarter.

TheStreet's Jim Cramer isn't worried, however. There's "no reason to panic" and investors should be in "no hurry to do any buying yet."


"Let stocks come in a little bit," said Cramer, co-manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio, during CNBC's "Stop Trading" segment.

Tape Reader
04-01-2015, 08:02 PM
Just went short the ES.

_______
04-01-2015, 08:05 PM
As you correctly pointed out in an earlier post, he has an impossible task. No one can make the number of calls he does and hope to be anything but average.

On the other hand, he's a guy who voluntarily dresses in giant shoes and a bulbous red nose as his work outfit.

I don't think his opinion is any kind of indicator. He's gotten rich by being loud and not much else. His success is more a sad comment on his audience than him. I'm sure he laughs all the way to the bank.

badcompany
04-01-2015, 09:03 PM
As you correctly pointed out in an earlier post, he has an impossible task. No one can make the number of calls he does and hope to be anything but average.

On the other hand, he's a guy who voluntarily dresses in giant shoes and a bulbous red nose as his work outfit.

I don't think his opinion is any kind of indicator. He's gotten rich by being loud and not much else. His success is more a sad comment on his audience than him. I'm sure he laughs all the way to the bank.

Calls about the market as a whole are a bit different than the stuff he does in his "Lightening Round." He doesn't make the former too often. He's usually telling people to buy, not wait.

When was the last time Cramer said "wait" after the market has had a big run up?

It's not just him. He's just the most visible media shill. The media getting bearish at bottoms has been going on forever.

I view the market as a merchandising operation. If insiders are saying "wait" it's because they don't want outsider participation until prices have been run up. At that point, "wait" turns into "buy", and shortly after, there will be a sell off like what we saw in October. An over 100 year old book I read said the market can be summed up in two words: Accumulation/Distribution.

Tape Reader
04-02-2015, 10:04 AM
Just went short the ES.

Stopped out overnight. Plus 5.25 pts.

ReplayRandall
04-03-2015, 03:51 PM
In a 45 minute futures abbreviated session on Good Friday, the futures were down sharply: Dow 165 pts, S&P 19.75 pts, Nasdaq 43.75 pts.. Caution light flashing for Monday's opening bell:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/03/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0MU01620150403

badcompany
04-03-2015, 04:20 PM
In a 45 minute futures abbreviated session on Good Friday, the futures were down sharply: Dow 165 pts, S&P 19.75 pts, Nasdaq 43.75 pts.. Caution light flashing for Monday's opening bell:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/03/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0MU01620150403

All of these economic indicators are just a smokescreen for what's going on behind the scenes. Do you really think the big banks give a rat's ass about a few thousand jobs either way?

Moreover, we've been told repeatedly that the Fed won't raise rates until the economy is on firm ground. So, a weak jobs report would favor a loose monetary policy by the fed, which would be bullish for the market.

ReplayRandall
04-03-2015, 05:21 PM
All of these economic indicators are just a smokescreen for what's going on behind the scenes. Do you really think the big banks give a rat's ass about a few thousand jobs either way?

Moreover, we've been told repeatedly that the Fed won't raise rates until the economy is on firm ground. So, a weak jobs report would favor a loose monetary policy by the fed, which would be bullish for the market.
The jobs report came in 120,000 less than expected, and worse since 2013. The "sell in May and go away" crowd, might just jump the starting gate early, but you could be right about not raising rates....maybe.

badcompany
04-03-2015, 05:30 PM
The jobs report came in 120,000 less than expected, and worse since 2013. The "sell in May and go away" crowd, might just jump the starting gate early, but you could be right about not raising rates....maybe.


Even the Fed's economy excuse for not raising rates is a smokescreen.

The real reason is all the treasury notes that will have to be rolled over in the next few years. At higher rates, debt servicing costs will rise dramatically.

Throw in European and Japanese loose monetary policy, and it's a good bet that the Fed's excuse train for not raising rates will keep rolling.

barn32
04-03-2015, 09:31 PM
In a 45 minute futures abbreviated session on Good Friday, the futures were down sharply: Dow 165 pts, S&P 19.75 pts, Nasdaq 43.75 pts.. Caution light flashing for Monday's opening bell:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/03/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0MU01620150403What do you wanna bet the market is up strongly on Monday. (By up strongly, I mean up off the -165 Dow low.)

ReplayRandall
04-03-2015, 10:27 PM
What do you wanna bet the market is up strongly on Monday. (By up strongly, I mean up off the -165 Dow low.)
This upside-down, convoluted, FED phony, irrational, nonsensical market?......No bet, you win... :bang:

badcompany
04-04-2015, 12:20 AM
This upside-down, convoluted, FED phony, irrational, nonsensical market?......No bet, you win... :bang:

I wouldn't put too much credence in a thinly traded abbreviated market.

One good sized trade could've caused that move, kinda like a $200 bet at a small harness track.

ReplayRandall
04-04-2015, 12:32 AM
I wouldn't put too much credence in a thinly traded abbreviated market.

One good sized trade could've caused that move, kinda like a $200 bet at a small harness track.
I see all sides BC, do you? I've recently cashed out of the market in totality, my friend. There might have been a little "froth" to squeeze out a few bucks, but it's all done now. I'll talk to you again in July as I have nothing left to say until then....Good Luck to you.

badcompany
04-06-2015, 10:59 AM
What do you wanna bet the market is up strongly on Monday. (By up strongly, I mean up off the -165 Dow low.)

Good call. :ThmbUp:

badcompany
04-10-2015, 06:00 PM
Put on the rally caps, folks. The shakeout is almost over. Cramer is telling investors not to buy.



Jim Cramer -- Don't Panic! Wait, Then Buy Quality Stocks Cheap



NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- April has started the way March ended -- stocks declining, the S&P 500 down 0.5% so far on the first day of the second quarter.

TheStreet's Jim Cramer isn't worried, however. There's "no reason to panic" and investors should be in "no hurry to do any buying yet."


"Let stocks come in a little bit," said Cramer, co-manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio, during CNBC's "Stop Trading" segment.

Can't say this rally is for real, yet, as my stocks are still trading within a range, but we are 2.5% up from Cramer's April 1 "Wait" call which came at an exact short term bottom. It's always nice to be on the opposite side of Ol' Jimbo.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/bb8294222b3c0116b8cc54945c8019c4_zpshx8855qx.jpg

badcompany
04-24-2015, 10:43 PM
The market as a whole is up 3.5% since April 1 when the media was extremely bearish and Cramer said, "Wait." Listening to the first few minutes of the show, today, he didn't seem too Gung Ho about getting people to jump in.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/25e6ceddeb67d1a8e3db91d723364cf4_zpsxyl78cgl.jpg

This chart is of my one new long term purchase, so far this year. It's showing signs of a breakout. They report earnings Tuesday.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/2e3532edd4694f1b50f4c39c428dfe4d_zpsyneigawe.jpg

badcompany
06-21-2015, 10:15 AM
There's been a lot of M&A activity in the Healthcare sector, recently.

After a sharp drop as a result of an earnings report, which wasn't even bad, Centene has not only recovered but is making all time highs. I wouldn't be surprised to hear about it being taken over by a larger company:

badcompany
06-21-2015, 10:17 AM
:confused:

badcompany
06-21-2015, 10:21 AM
:ThmbUp:

raybo
06-21-2015, 03:43 PM
I'm not a market guy, other than a couple of dips into it back in the '80s (made a little money and got out, never to return), but if someone wants a chance to get in on the ground floor of a company that may just revolutionize personal transportation, as we know it, check out http://www.eliomotors.com/about-elio/ . This is a startup, expected to produce their first vehicle in mid 2016. Their first offering is supposedly a 3 wheel car (classified as a motorcycle but the goal (and is already well underway) is to go from state to state and get the laws amended to reclassify it as a car, which means no helmet, no motorcycle driver's license, and traditional car insurance, etc..). The focus is to produce the vehicle for $6800, 2 passenger front to back seating, weighing only 1200 pounds, manual or automatic transmission (at no additional cost), 3 airbags and front and rear crumple zones, A/C and heat, stereo, Bluetooth, Anti-lock brakes, GPS, etc., fully enclosed cockpit with traditional windshield, side windows, and rear window, 3 cylinder automobile engine (not a motorcycle engine) that produces 55 horsepower in it's basic configuration, 0-60 mph in 9+ seconds, top speed of slightly over 100 mph (104 in the latest prototype (the P5, the 5th of 26 prototypes expected to be built for testing purposes), with optional turbo already being designed for those who want higher performance), and 84 highway mpg on regular gasoline (8 gallon tank that will get you up to 672 miles of highway driving).

"Pep Boys" will handle all service work. Plans are to have a network of traditional dealerships in all major cities, but one will also be able to order it online. Once ordered, with any individual options one wants (not traditional "packages" that may include things you don't want, along with their prices of course), your order is sent to a prep center, all located within 8 hours or so of several dealerships/retail centers), these prep centers install any options and prep the car fully and deliver it to the customer's chosen dealership/retail center for customer pickup. So, from start to finish you order and then pick up your car in 24 hours or less. Elio has purchased a previously shut down GM plant in Shreveport for the production and assembly of the car.

Financing options include, but are not limited to, an "Elio" charge card, to be used for fuel, from which the cost of your gasoline is doubled and that additional charge is applied to the balance left on the car (so instead of paying for 8 gallons of gasoline your card is charged twice that amount and that other half goes towards your remaining financing balance). Obviously the car is targeted at "the masses", providing a safe, dependable, inexpensive, highly economical, "and" car, meaning you keep your SUV or other family car, and use the Elio for daily driving/commuting. But, you can bet that lots of future owners will do as the Elio team is doing right now, touring the entire country.

By the way, I'm not in any way associated with Elio, but am seriously considering investing in the company. Investments will be available to both "qualified investors" and the general public via SEC Regulation A+ (Reg A) which allows a limited amount of funding ($50M, if memory serves) to be raised from non-"qualified investors". Crowd-funding and a pending Fed loan, are the primary funding vehicles. Yearly production numbers are projected at nearly 1/4 million. As little as $100 gets you on the waiting list for your first Elio, or you can just wait until after vehicles have been supplied to those on the the current 42,000+ (and growing) person waiting list.

Do I sound excited? Can't wait to get mine!!

whodoyoulike
06-21-2015, 04:15 PM
I've never heard of Centene before today's post by Badcompany. So, I looked them up but without extensive research .......

Are they only an Advisory Company or do they provide some type of insurance, product etc.?

whodoyoulike
06-21-2015, 04:17 PM
Raybo,

I've seen 3-wheeled motorbikes on the streets (2 in front and 1 rear). They're supposed to be fast just maybe not 100 mph. Also, the ones I've seen were not enclosed.

Is this the same company?

raybo
06-21-2015, 04:43 PM
Raybo,

I've seen 3-wheeled motorbikes on the streets (2 in front and 1 rear). They're supposed to be fast just maybe not 100 mph. Also, the ones I've seen were not enclosed.

Is this the same company?

No, this is a brand new entry into the "automotive" market. Innovation is what is driving this thing. When the average cost of a new car is in the $30k+ range, and the cost of gasoline is in the mid $2+ range with increases on the horizon, and increasing insurance costs due to the high replacement/repair costs of these expensive vehicles, the solution is clear to Mr Elio and his team, build a safe, full bodied cheap, dependable, no frills, extremely economical car that brings the millions of lower income people back into the game, and helps rid the highways of those 30-40 year old clunkers that are both dangerous and inefficient.

It is a 3 wheel car, 2 front and 1 rear, much like the 3 wheel motorcycles that have hit the roads in the last several years, but this one's only similarity to those is the 3 wheel configuration and the front to back seating arrangement. Everything else shouts "car".

There are some very heavy hitters from the automotive industry (and elsewhere) behind the scenes working on this thing.

raybo
06-21-2015, 05:00 PM
There are some very heavy hitters from the automotive industry (and elsewhere) behind the scenes working on this thing.

Board members: http://www.eliomotors.com/about-elio/#board-members

Founded by car enthusiast Paul Elio in 2008, Elio Motors Inc. represents a revolutionary approach to manufacturing an ultra-high-mileage vehicle. The three-wheeled Elio is engineered to attain a highway mileage rating of up to 84 mpg while providing the comfort of amenities such as power windows, power door lock and air conditioning, accompanied by the safety of multiple air bags and an aerodynamic, enclosed vehicle body. Elio’s first manufacturing site will be in Shreveport, La. For more information, visit www.eliomotors.com or www.facebook.com/ElioMotors.

badcompany
06-21-2015, 05:02 PM
I've never heard of Centene before today's post by Badcompany. So, I looked them up but without extensive research .......

Are they only an Advisory Company or do they provide some type of insurance, product etc.?

Yes, they provide health insurance plans to state and local governments. With the move towards more centralized healthcare, their future looks bright.

Hoofless_Wonder
06-22-2015, 04:14 PM
It is a 3 wheel car, 2 front and 1 rear, much like the 3 wheel motorcycles that have hit the roads in the last several years, but this one's only similarity to those is the 3 wheel configuration and the front to back seating arrangement. Everything else shouts "car".

There are some very heavy hitters from the automotive industry (and elsewhere) behind the scenes working on this thing.

Ah, great. The popularity of those tiny smart cars here in Portland are a nuisance. They're slow and small, and I don't see them until I about run them over - especially when zooming along on the bike.

Back on topic. I would love to short the market right here, as about a month ago it broke below an ascending wedge from last fall. But the Greek issue has me in scalp mode for now. But I think if we break below the lows from early April (about 2035 on the S&P), then it could be off to the races in freefall mode.

badcompany
06-22-2015, 05:46 PM
No, this is a brand new entry into the "automotive" market. Innovation is what is driving this thing. When the average cost of a new car is in the $30k+ range, and the cost of gasoline is in the mid $2+ range with increases on the horizon, and increasing insurance costs due to the high replacement/repair costs of these expensive vehicles, the solution is clear to Mr Elio and his team, build a safe, full bodied cheap, dependable, no frills, extremely economical car that brings the millions of lower income people back into the game, and helps rid the highways of those 30-40 year old clunkers that are both dangerous and inefficient.

It is a 3 wheel car, 2 front and 1 rear, much like the 3 wheel motorcycles that have hit the roads in the last several years, but this one's only similarity to those is the 3 wheel configuration and the front to back seating arrangement. Everything else shouts "car".

There are some very heavy hitters from the automotive industry (and elsewhere) behind the scenes working on this thing.

I remembered seeing something like this on the tv show "Wheeler Dealers."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isetta

I looked it up: The Isetta Bubble Car

I don't think I could handle being seen in this :(

raybo
06-22-2015, 06:14 PM
I remembered seeing something like this on the tv show "Wheeler Dealers."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isetta

I looked it up: The Isetta Bubble Car

I don't think I could handle being seen in this :(

LOL - that's a far cry from what the Elio is. It's part motorcycle and part car, with the focus on off the shelf parts (except the engine which was designed by the same company that does the engine design work for Mercedes, BMW, Bugatti, etc.), extreme aerodynamics, weight distribution and center of gravity, while providing acceptable performance. None of that can be said of the Isetta.

And yes, the Elio is front wheel drive.

raybo
06-22-2015, 06:30 PM
This gives you a comparison between the Elio and the VW Bug. Half the wind resistance, half the weight, twice the gas mileage

badcompany
06-22-2015, 06:56 PM
LOL - that's a far cry from what the Elio is. It's part motorcycle and part car, with the focus on off the shelf parts (except the engine which was designed by the same company that does the engine design work for Mercedes, BMW, Bugatti, etc.), extreme aerodynamics, weight distribution and center of gravity, while providing acceptable performance. None of that can be said of the Isetta.

And yes, the Elio is front wheel drive.

Still the same concept, just new and improved. Having a hard time seeing that take off in the U.S, maybe Europe.

whodoyoulike
06-22-2015, 07:11 PM
Badcompany,

I remember an elderly neighbor having one of those cars with the entrance in the front when I was a kid. I was too young to wonder how it steered and ran.

badcompany
06-22-2015, 07:33 PM
Badcompany,

I remember an elderly neighbor having one of those cars with the entrance in the front when I was a kid. I was too young to wonder how it steered and ran.

I've been in a Smart Car (pic below). They're surprisingly roomy. You see quite a few of them in NYC. With parking at such a premium, Smart Cars are practical, as they can fit into spots that a regular car couldn't. That said, I wouldn't want to take one on a highway.

raybo
06-22-2015, 07:49 PM
Still the same concept, just new and improved. Having a hard time seeing that take off in the U.S, maybe Europe.

Do the research, listen to all the interviews, listen especially to the "qualified investor" video, etc., I did, and if the funding all comes together (and with the 43,000 reservations they have already sold (more than almost every car maker sells in a year) this thing will go forward, and IMO, it could be the next '64 Mustang phenomenon. It could rival the VW popularity of the 60s and 70s. There are millions of people driving around in 10,15,20,30,40 year old clunkers that they hold their breath when they turn the key hoping it starts, many of which cost as much or more than a brand new Elio, and get no where near the gas mileage, and they get a 3 year 36,000 mile warranty to boot, which will be serviced at any Pep Boy service center, anywhere. They have 2 models, a standard transmission and an automatic transmission, you order the color and transmission type you want, the order is sent to the marshalling center nearest your preferred pickup location, where they install all optional equipment you desire. At midnight the car goes on a truck and 9 hours later, or less, you pick up your completed car. You don't even have to put down a down payment, you can opt to get the Elio charge card which, when you buy gasoline, you are charged twice the cost of the gasoline, that half of the charge goes directly towards the balance you owe on the car, so in effect you have no car payment, only gasoline costs, which will be less than your conventional car's current gas cost.

College students will love it, used/clunker car drivers will love it, low income and retired people will love it, higher income people will love it because they can have their SUV or pickup as well as a brand new commuter vehicle for only $6800. No $20,000+ more fuel efficient commuter vehicle. Motorcycle people will love it because they can keep their bikes, for fair weather days, and for under $7000 also have an Elio, still feel like they're driving a bike but they won't be sidelined during bad weather, and they'll get more gas mileage than they get with their Harley or Honda bike. Many people who are taking the side of the naysayers will eventually buy one just because they can, just like the Joneses next door.

PaceAdvantage
06-23-2015, 05:32 PM
No, this is a brand new entry into the "automotive" market. Innovation is what is driving this thing. When the average cost of a new car is in the $30k+ range, and the cost of gasoline is in the mid $2+ range with increases on the horizon, and increasing insurance costs due to the high replacement/repair costs of these expensive vehicles, the solution is clear to Mr Elio and his team, build a safe, full bodied cheap, dependable, no frills, extremely economical car that brings the millions of lower income people back into the game, and helps rid the highways of those 30-40 year old clunkers that are both dangerous and inefficient.

It is a 3 wheel car, 2 front and 1 rear, much like the 3 wheel motorcycles that have hit the roads in the last several years, but this one's only similarity to those is the 3 wheel configuration and the front to back seating arrangement. Everything else shouts "car".

There are some very heavy hitters from the automotive industry (and elsewhere) behind the scenes working on this thing.I saw this in Manhattan the other day:

http://cdn-4.psndealer.com/e2/dealersite/images/xtremehonda/IMG_1973800.jpg

Hoofless_Wonder
06-23-2015, 05:53 PM
... Motorcycle people will love it because they can keep their bikes, for fair weather days, and for under $7000 also have an Elio, still feel like they're driving a bike but they won't be sidelined during bad weather, and they'll get more gas mileage than they get with their Harley or Honda bike......

Raybo, I don't make a living trying to predict fads or trends. I thought VMware was a fad, so what do I know?

I will say this though - most of the bikers I know, myself included, would not be caught dead in a three-wheeler. They are for Grandmas. There are some older bikers who like them, and the obvious advantage for driving one down to the bar (and back home) is not to be overlooked. But a guy has to be in touch with his feminine side to be seen in one (men can be quite vain), and other men will not want their woman to drive a vehicle that provides little more safety than a motorcycle.

It'll be interesting to see how the marketing goes. It's one thing to be caught between two jacked-up pickups on the freeway when you've got a loud, macho Harley between your legs. It's a bit different experience to be on a scooter - or a three-wheeled go-cart.

raybo
06-23-2015, 06:59 PM
I saw this in Manhattan the other day:

http://cdn-4.psndealer.com/e2/dealersite/images/xtremehonda/IMG_1973800.jpg

Yeah, that's a straight-up 3 wheel motorcycle. Too bad you missed the Elio, which was recently in Manhatten as part of the Elio Team's cross country tour. It was featured at the New York Auto Show ( https://www.eliomotors.com/cnc-news-mind-blowing-cars-at-new-york-auto-show/ ). The Elio is between a car and a motorcycle, and a new classification has been proposed federally by one the Congressional members, which will classify this type of vehicle an "autocycle", which will not require a motorcycle driver's license or the wearing of a helmet (almost all states have already legislated no helmet for vehicles of this general type; 3 wheels, fully enclosed, no removable roof, permanent windscreen, automotive safety equipment, like air bags, crumple zones, antilock brakes, seat/safety belts, electronic stabilization control, etc.. Helmets are actually more dangerous in a vehicle containing seat/safety bets because of the added weight the helmet adds to the human head while the body is restricted from movement by safety belts, ala Dale Earnhart's death).

Sen. David Vitter (R, La.) recently proposed the Autocycle Safety Act that creates Federal rules to cover three-wheeled enclosed vehicles. Currently, any vehicle with less than four wheels is considered a motorcycle by the Federal government. But, the enclosed, three-wheeled vehicle such as the one being developed by Elio Motors, has many of the same attributes as a passenger car.

“I’ve been asked by many people why we support regulation,” Elio said. “We are already building this vehicle to the highest safety standards in the auto industry, so the legislation won’t impact our design or add cost to the vehicle. It will be good for consumers, because they will know they can cross state lines and have a consistent set of standards that cover their vehicle.”

Elio pointed to helmet laws as an example of why this legislation is important. It is safer for a motorcycle rider to wear a helmet, but in an enclosed environment such as the Elio, passengers are safer without a helmet. Elio has been working state-by-state to change motorcycle helmet laws, but many consumers remain confused about the regulation where they live. A Federal regulation covering autocycles will clear up this ambiguity.

There will be a total of 26 prototypes built, the 5th (prototype P5) has already been built, most of which will be ultimately destroyed during the various collision tests required to obtain a federal collision safety rating.

“We applaud Sen. Vitter for recognizing the autocycle is an innovation that is going to disrupt the status quo in the auto industry,” Elio said. “His leadership in recognizing the unique needs of this new category is an important step in making autocycle ownership safe and convenient for the American consumer.”

The Elio, which recently unveiled its new 0.9 liter, 3-cylinder engine prototype, will be manufactured in Shreveport, La., at a former General Motors facility that made vehicles such as the Hummer H3 and Chevy Colorado. The low-cost, high mileage vehicle has already been a hit with consumers. Elio Motors has taken more than 40,000 reservations for a spot in line. It is expected to go into production in the first half of 2016.

About Elio Motors

Founded by car enthusiast Paul Elio in 2008, Elio Motors Inc. represents a revolutionary approach to manufacturing an ultra-high-mileage vehicle. The three-wheeled Elio is engineered to attain a highway mileage rating of up to 84 mpg while providing the comfort of amenities such as power windows, power door lock and air conditioning, accompanied by the safety of multiple air bags and an aerodynamic, enclosed vehicle body. Elio’s first manufacturing site will be in Shreveport, La. For more information, visit www.eliomotors.com or www.facebook.com/ElioMotors.

raybo
06-23-2015, 07:15 PM
Raybo, I don't make a living trying to predict fads or trends. I thought VMware was a fad, so what do I know?

I will say this though - most of the bikers I know, myself included, would not be caught dead in a three-wheeler. They are for Grandmas. There are some older bikers who like them, and the obvious advantage for driving one down to the bar (and back home) is not to be overlooked. But a guy has to be in touch with his feminine side to be seen in one (men can be quite vain), and other men will not want their woman to drive a vehicle that provides little more safety than a motorcycle.

It'll be interesting to see how the marketing goes. It's one thing to be caught between two jacked-up pickups on the freeway when you've got a loud, macho Harley between your legs. It's a bit different experience to be on a scooter - or a three-wheeled go-cart.

Do the research, that's all I can suggest. And, as for "men will not want their woman to drive a vehicle that provides little more safety than a motorcycle", you need to check out the safety equipment and collision survivability features of this vehicle. It is much safer than any motorcycle ever built, and rivals medium sized traditional cars in that regard.

I too, am a bike guy, have been since the 70s, both street riding and MX racing, and I can't wait to get my hands on one. One of my neighbors is the president of a motorcycle club (The Sabres), who all drive Harleys and fly their colors, go on "runs" and support various charities through fundraisers, and all that other stuff that we see on TV and in the news, and he's almost as excited about the Elio as I am. I wouldn't want to say to his face, or any of their members, that "a guy has to be in touch with his feminine side to be seen in one", that probably wouldn't be good for your health, these guys are all "real" bikers, not "wannabe" bikers.

_______
06-23-2015, 09:27 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QQh56geU0X8

The very best show ever on television did a segment on 3 wheel cars. Based on it, I will probably not be an investor.

Still can't believe they fired Jeremy.

raybo
06-23-2015, 09:52 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QQh56geU0X8

The very best show ever on television did a segment on 3 wheel cars. Based on it, I will probably not be an investor.

Still can't believe they fired Jeremy.

LOL - I saw that episode, unreal. But, as bad as that episode was, it is nowhere near the worst of them, there are many more that make even less sense and more poorly conceived. One of the worst shows on TV, IMO. Jeremy needed firing!

raybo
06-24-2015, 01:42 AM
One last post, showing a couple of concepts from someone who is doing design concepts for reservation holders. Several Elio clubs are already reality and are planning club cruises. "Wraps" are being seriously considered by Elio as an add-on to the stock colors.

Hoofless_Wonder
06-24-2015, 04:39 PM
Do the research, that's all I can suggest. And, as for "men will not want their woman to drive a vehicle that provides little more safety than a motorcycle", you need to check out the safety equipment and collision survivability features of this vehicle. It is much safer than any motorcycle ever built, and rivals medium sized traditional cars in that regard.

I too, am a bike guy, have been since the 70s, both street riding and MX racing, and I can't wait to get my hands on one. One of my neighbors is the president of a motorcycle club (The Sabres), who all drive Harleys and fly their colors, go on "runs" and support various charities through fundraisers, and all that other stuff that we see on TV and in the news, and he's almost as excited about the Elio as I am. I wouldn't want to say to his face, or any of their members, that "a guy has to be in touch with his feminine side to be seen in one", that probably wouldn't be good for your health, these guys are all "real" bikers, not "wannabe" bikers.

There's thousands of failed products and companies that had plenty of "research" to support their viability, so there's limited use of it. It does not provide good insight to quality or execution. At the same time I did not believe, nor can I still believe, how the popularity of overpriced iPhones and Harleys came about. That's why I'll be interested in their marketing approach, and if they can create a moat to make the Elio "hip". Otherwise it may go the route of the Betamax.

As for safety, you can't stand next to an Elio and medium sized car and believe it's just as safe. It may be, but when it comes to automotive safety, size matters, if only in the eye of the buyer and not in reality.

The price point also had me doubtful - it seems awfully good to be true, cheaper than Kaw 650 Versys, though not as fast. I can't believe the current three-wheeler market today $30K+ is all profit padding beyond $7K.

As for taunting the owners of Elio with their cute "girly" car, I won't have to do that - I'll predict the average Harley biker will be happy to do that for the rest of us. And I can just see the Elio owner coming out of his favorite restaurant to find he's been pranked - and his vehicle picked up and moved on top of the concrete flower pots on the sidewalk.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all in favor of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, having owned one all my life - starting with my new 1979 Dodge Omni I bought my last year of high school through the Mazda 3 I drive today - plus the 10 motorcycles I've owned as well. Maybe the U.S. and the world are ready for this kind of vehicle for popular adoption. We'll see.....

raybo
06-24-2015, 06:02 PM
There's thousands of failed products and companies that had plenty of "research" to support their viability, so there's limited use of it. It does not provide good insight to quality or execution. At the same time I did not believe, nor can I still believe, how the popularity of overpriced iPhones and Harleys came about. That's why I'll be interested in their marketing approach, and if they can create a moat to make the Elio "hip". Otherwise it may go the route of the Betamax.

As for safety, you can't stand next to an Elio and medium sized car and believe it's just as safe. It may be, but when it comes to automotive safety, size matters, if only in the eye of the buyer and not in reality.

The price point also had me doubtful - it seems awfully good to be true, cheaper than Kaw 650 Versys, though not as fast. I can't believe the current three-wheeler market today $30K+ is all profit padding beyond $7K.

As for taunting the owners of Elio with their cute "girly" car, I won't have to do that - I'll predict the average Harley biker will be happy to do that for the rest of us. And I can just see the Elio owner coming out of his favorite restaurant to find he's been pranked - and his vehicle picked up and moved on top of the concrete flower pots on the sidewalk.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all in favor of smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, having owned one all my life - starting with my new 1979 Dodge Omni I bought my last year of high school through the Mazda 3 I drive today - plus the 10 motorcycles I've owned as well. Maybe the U.S. and the world are ready for this kind of vehicle for popular adoption. We'll see.....

Well, that's the problem with all startups, you either get in or you wait and see. You have to weigh the risk against the possible reward of getting in at the beginning. I only posted it here because this is an investment forum.

Personally, I can't wait to get mine and drive the 1300 miles to visit my wife's family in Arlington, Va. Less than $3 per gallon, 8 gallon tank, over 600 miles per tank, that's about $24 per tank, about two tanks gets us there and two more gets us back, $96+ round trip. Beats the heck out of $700 round trip airfare for the two of us!

badcompany
06-24-2015, 06:25 PM
From what I've read, they've had funding problems as well as production delays.

Does this not concern you, Ray?

raybo
06-24-2015, 07:13 PM
From what I've read, they've had funding problems as well as production delays.

Does this not concern you, Ray?

Yes, the funding was of concern to me along with the delays encountered since 2013, but it appears they have things in place now and momentum has built tremendously recently. Their federal loan appears to be on track, they have recently started offering both qualified investors and non-qualified investors the opportunity to get involved, at last word they have over 43,000 reservations from future owners (almost 7000 in just the last 30 days alone). The former GM plant they obtained came with the production equipment included, they are now in the process of selling millions of dollars of surplus equipment not needed for the production of the Elio. And, the news about the activity to get standardized laws in place, both federally and state to state, as well as the introduction of the bill to create the new vehicle category, has relieved much of the confusion by the public regarding those issues.

All this recent "movement", and all the exposure they have received at the various auto shows, interviews, magazine and newspaper articles, and popularity gained via the current Elio Team US tour, many highly ranked global suppliers coming on board, and the commitment by Pep Boys to manage the servicing and warranty work, etc., gives me added confidence that production will indeed start in mid 2016.

IMO, Elio just needs to finalize the funding needed to hire and make payroll for the workers so production can begin. Once these things start hitting the roads I think the project takes off.

whodoyoulike
06-24-2015, 07:22 PM
Sorry for changing the direction of the recent posts but, today (06/24/15) the transport index dropped almost 2% (8310.01... -157.87 ...-1.86%). This is one of the more important indexes which I follow.

What does anyone think it means?

Ocala Mike
06-24-2015, 07:43 PM
Economic weakness ahead?

Did anything happen with oil today? Maybe it's got something to do with that PPA trade bill passing.

whodoyoulike
06-24-2015, 07:50 PM
The index has been dropping since late last year compared to the other indexes rising.

badcompany
06-24-2015, 09:07 PM
Sorry for changing the direction of the recent posts but, today (06/24/15) the transport index dropped almost 2% (8310.01... -157.87 ...-1.86%). This is one of the more important indexes which I follow.

What does anyone think it means?


IMO, that index had been artificially inflated. Because of the Shale Oil Boom, the rails were making big bank transporting oil. Now, with oil @ $60 and looking range bound, a lot of that money figures to dry up.

Moreover, the Airlines had been "Flying High," and we're due for a correction.

Before the pullback, Delta had quintupled in price in just a couple of years.

PICSIX
07-10-2015, 09:35 AM
The following chart demonstrates how well an ADX peak has been at predicting a complete market reversal in the DJI. Now would be a good time to take a low-risk, long-term short entry.....

After posting, it looks like the chart is a little hard to see...It is a monthly chart beginning in 2006 to current.

This top is taking a long time but it feels like we are due for a correction.

badcompany
07-13-2015, 11:26 PM
This top is taking a long time but it feels like we are due for a correction.

You know, there is the possibility it's not a top.

PICSIX
07-14-2015, 11:41 AM
You know, there is the possibility it's not a top.

Yes, that's very true. I'm expecting a run-up in the market here with earnings reports, after that I don't see anything left to push it any higher.

You might want to fade my opinion :lol: :lol:

PICSIX
08-12-2015, 02:28 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-death-cross-bearish-omen-153906040.html

PICSIX
09-01-2015, 03:27 PM
If you are holding stocks for the long term. There are a lot of big names (>5,000,000 shares traded daily) in an Stage 4 Decline. That is price is below an descending 30 week simple moving average. The DJIA and the SP-500 are also in this decline.

When the scan is changed to daily volume greater than 500,000 the number of stocks jumps to over 1,100!

PICSIX
09-01-2015, 03:46 PM
If you are holding stocks for the long term. There are a lot of big names (>5,000,000 shares traded daily) in an Stage 4 Decline. That is price is below an descending 30 week simple moving average. The DJIA and the SP-500 are also in this decline.

When the scan is changed to daily volume greater than 500,000 the number of stocks jumps to over 1,100!

There are only 25 with 5,000,000 plus daily volume.

Valuist
09-02-2015, 01:14 PM
This top is taking a long time but it feels like we are due for a correction.

Good call back on July 10.

Even the so-called "big" positive days recently never approach the beating from previous days. I expected a pretty solid up day today; maybe over 1% following the beatdown on Tuesday. That looks like it isn't going to happen.

PICSIX
09-24-2015, 11:56 AM
Dr. Wish does a great job of explaining/displaying Stage 4.....

http://wishingwealthblog.com/2015/09/market-down-trend-deepens-mainly-in-cash-zltq-glb-holding/

Saratoga_Mike
09-25-2015, 04:06 PM
Credit not acting well at all. I'd be careful in the equity mkt, very careful.

Saratoga_Mike
12-12-2015, 12:13 PM
Credit not acting well at all. I'd be careful in the equity mkt, very careful.

Credit mkts acting even worse now.

PICSIX
12-19-2015, 08:37 AM
Those of you holding stocks in the intermediate to long term keep your eye on Apple. If it breaks below it's current level the overall stock market may get ugly.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/12/18/apple-bear-market-aapl/77560080/

APPL is currently at the purple line displayed by Dr. Wish in the link below:

http://i1.wp.com/wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AAPL12112015.jpg

PICSIX
01-04-2016, 07:54 AM
1. China is pulling the rest of the world down.

2. Leading stocks here in the U.S. are showing weakness.

http://wishingwealthblog.com/2016/01/new-qqq-short-term-up-trend-in-jeopardy-market-indexes-look-weak-so-do-aaplnke-dis/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-start-2016-weak-note-middle-east-030248559--finance.html

PICSIX
01-05-2016, 06:18 PM
Investors hoping the Apple (AAPL) stock crash would end this year are now clinging to what's left of the triple-digit stock price.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/05/apple-stock-drop/78309422/

Ocala Mike
01-06-2016, 01:48 PM
Someone needs to start a thread to replace this called "Calling the Bottom."

ReplayRandall
01-07-2016, 01:21 AM
Trading on China's stock markets were suspended for the rest of the day, for the second time this week, as a new circuit-breaking mechanism was tripped less than half an hour after the open:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-yuan-midpoint-idUSKBN0UL07Z20160107

PICSIX
01-07-2016, 08:29 AM
Someone needs to start a thread to replace this called "Calling the Bottom."

Got it....DOW 10,000 October-November, 2016 ;)

PICSIX
01-07-2016, 08:30 AM
Trading on China's stock markets were suspended for the rest of the day, for the second time this week, as a new circuit-breaking mechanism was tripped less than half an hour after the open:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-yuan-midpoint-idUSKBN0UL07Z20160107

Unless the Chinese government changes something it will happen again tomorrow.

reckless
01-07-2016, 12:48 PM
Got it....DOW 10,000 October-November, 2016 ;)

I hope I'm not broke by November 2016 after buying the dips... and more dips... and even more dips along the way. :)

PICSIX
01-07-2016, 06:11 PM
I hope I'm not broke by November 2016 after buying the dips... and more dips... and even more dips along the way. :)

Sell the Rips in this market

Valuist
01-12-2016, 11:27 PM
I hope I'm not broke by November 2016 after buying the dips... and more dips... and even more dips along the way. :)

I see where you get your moniker.

plainolebill
01-14-2016, 01:48 AM
Take shelter?

Albert Edwards of SocGen with annotation by Zero Hedge

Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/albert-edwards-hits-peak-pessimism-sp-will-fall-75-global-recession-looms)

Excerpt of Zero Hedge commentary

"Needless to say, a rout of that magnitude would wipe out virtually everyone from Wall Street to Main Street and the malaise would invariably be exacerbated by bouts of flash crashing madness in broken yet increasing correlated markets where "all weather", risk parity strategies are no longer reliable umbrellas when the storm hits.

With rock bottom rates and a still bloated balance sheet, the Fed would be working with exactly zero counter-cyclical slack, which means there would be no way for Yellen to avoid an all-out unwind of the much ballyhooed wealth effect that's served to restore the 401ks for any Americans still foolish enough to retain a seat at a casino run by crazed PhD economists, vacuum tubes, and modern day robber barons."

lamboguy
01-14-2016, 06:26 AM
Take shelter?

Albert Edwards of SocGen with annotation by Zero Hedge

Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/albert-edwards-hits-peak-pessimism-sp-will-fall-75-global-recession-looms)

Excerpt of Zero Hedge commentary

"Needless to say, a rout of that magnitude would wipe out virtually everyone from Wall Street to Main Street and the malaise would invariably be exacerbated by bouts of flash crashing madness in broken yet increasing correlated markets where "all weather", risk parity strategies are no longer reliable umbrellas when the storm hits.

With rock bottom rates and a still bloated balance sheet, the Fed would be working with exactly zero counter-cyclical slack, which means there would be no way for Yellen to avoid an all-out unwind of the much ballyhooed wealth effect that's served to restore the 401ks for any Americans still foolish enough to retain a seat at a casino run by crazed PhD economists, vacuum tubes, and modern day robber barons."from my macro perspective based mainly on world population the world markets are very fairly priced even with all the central banks interventions during the past decade. that being said, i realize that the markets always know more and do a better job of predicting the future than myself. that being said, if the guy writing this article from zero hedge happens to be right about the declines in the equity markets throughout the world, there will be plenty of problems in the future a lot worse than just markets falling apart. to get to the low points would mean a fast decline in world population. i hope this guy turns out to be wrong,

sammy the sage
01-14-2016, 08:43 PM
it's more outta balance than 1929....let us eat cake...

PICSIX
01-15-2016, 08:05 AM
Oil below $30 this morning!!

sammy the sage
01-15-2016, 10:54 AM
brilliant head fake this morning...futures up decent...then KABOOM...

reckless
01-15-2016, 12:23 PM
brilliant head fake this morning...futures up decent...then KABOOM...

Sammy, I had Fox Business on this morning between 6-8 am or so. Then I left the house to go workout.

When I watched throughout the morning, the Dow and S & P futures were down big. Did the futures make a reversal, then KABOOM after the opening?

It's no big deal, just curious.

_______
01-15-2016, 01:18 PM
I was up around 5 am on the west coast and futures were already down big. It must have been much earlier.

raybo
01-15-2016, 01:41 PM
Oil below $30 this morning!!

Yeah, unfortunately it costs American oil producers $36 per barrel to frack it. While I'm all for lower gasoline prices, as this continues to drag out there are going to be some serious repercussions as a result. I see frequent changes in gas prices, in my neck of the woods, of up to $0.15 per gallon, all in a single day. That tells me that some gasoline suppliers are feeling the pressure of the low prices and are forced to make huge upward adjustments to their prices just to keep their heads above water regarding total revenue. Its only going to get worse, as the Saudi's are saying they are in it for the long haul, that being flooding the market with cheap oil in the attempt to run competitors out of business. It only costs them $6 per barrel to pump it out of the desert. So they can afford to stay the course. Also, other oil producing nations are increasing their oil production in order to protect their total revenues, because the prices are so low. That means even more oil on the market and lower prices in the future, and even lower prices.

In the long run, the Saudi's will get their wish, other nations' oil producers will not be able to afford to pump their oil, and that plays into the hands of the Saudi's, which will once again rule oil production and will be able to hold everyone else hostage as a result. Widespread political turmoil and instability, and more armed conflicts look inevitable, IMO.