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letswastemoney
01-28-2015, 07:50 PM
I only looked at the BRIS PPs so far, but it seems that Ocean Knight should breeze over this field as long as he can duplicate his sprint form going longer.

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=TAM&race=11&param1=715&param2=2015&param3=1861860)

What do you think?

Robert Fischer
01-28-2015, 10:27 PM
Yea, I think Ocean Knight could be a class-level higher than the rest of these.

Catalina Red was very impressive last time. He's a big horse from the 1 post, so we'll see what kind of trip he gets. (a little worried he may be in a bit tight)

Royal Son and Ami's Flatter look fairly solid.

whodoyoulike
01-28-2015, 10:33 PM
I like :2: royal son and the :3: ami's flatter as contenders. The others seem too fast, slow or something else for 8.5f. I'm leaning towards :3: .

:11: Ocean Knight is possible but, has never raced in a route.

letswastemoney
01-28-2015, 11:15 PM
:11: Ocean Knight is possible but, has never raced in a route.The pedigree looks okay for routes. I'm not worried about the sire side with Curlin, although the dam side made me think for a while. The dam does own 1 route win at least.

The post position isn't good.

If I had to pick a longshot, it would be Johnny Be Good.

Some_One
01-28-2015, 11:20 PM
The pedigree looks okay for routes. I'm not worried about the sire side with Curlin, although the dam side made me think for a while. The dam does own 1 route win at least.

The post position isn't good.

If I had to pick a longshot, it would be Johnny Be Good.

I don't like it when the Sire AWD is greater than the Dam AWD, it's been a good play against angle in the Derby so it's enough for me to oppose OK here.

Amis Flatter and Coomer look interesting.

Did Crittenden get gelded before or after his Keeneland flop?

Robert Fischer
01-29-2015, 12:37 AM
I don't get the mystery involved with Ocean Knight running 1 1/16th.

He happened to run in a sprint on debut, in his only lifetime start.
That does not stamp him as a sprinter by any means. Nor is it unusual for route horses to debut in a sprint. 11 of the 12 entries in this race debuted in a sprint. Nor is his pedigree some extreme sprint-only pedigree.

Either Ocean Knight is the G-2-or-greater talent that he appears to be, or he isn't.

whodoyoulike
01-29-2015, 12:49 AM
I did state Ocean Knight is a possible. But, I'd really like to see how he would do in a route (even 8f) distance before I bet my money.

The two I identified have that experience. It's just my preference for this particular race.

Robert Fischer
01-29-2015, 09:51 AM
Do-It-Yourself prime power adjustment for Sam F. Davis:

http://s29.postimg.org/gk06r2epz/sam_f_davis.jpg

*Note that this is based on the class as of the last race run, So if you feel Ocean Knight's class is at least the equal of his rivals here, you would upgrade him among the leaders.

Robert Fischer
01-29-2015, 01:30 PM
Here this is a better version that gives more credit to prime power:
(click this thumbnail to see large, clear image.)

http://img2.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/20590/20590732-holder-7f0896128b569eb7cff2272a979630a7.jpg (http://www.uploadhouse.com/viewfile.php?id=20590732&showlnk=0)

letswastemoney
01-29-2015, 05:21 PM
I'd be more confident in Ami's Flatter's class if Bluegrass Singer ran better in the Holy Bull. Then again, I guess you don't have to be Upstart or Frosted to win against these.

Robert Fischer
01-29-2015, 10:42 PM
I'd be more confident in Ami's Flatter's class if Bluegrass Singer ran better in the Holy Bull. Then again, I guess you don't have to be Upstart or Frosted to win against these.
Yea.

And oh yea - not sure if I gave you a 'congrats' yet on your writing gig with Lady and The Track. That's pretty cool. I've checked them out on facebook. :ThmbUp:


And it's worth noting that Ami's Flatter had a good trip in that race.
Bluegrass Singer set a fast pace, and earned a clear rail trip in the process, and then the 9-Mawthooq and the 7-Juan-and-Bina who were chasing Bluegrass Singer were really hurt by the pace, which 'flattered' Ami's Flatter quite a bit. Ami's Flatter was slightly outrun but when the 9 and 7 hit the wall, Ami's Flatter was able to capitalize by cutting the corner and continuing on a fairly steady effort.
However, I wouldn't call it the biggest dream trip in the world. It was a very good trip, but Ami's Flatter didn't necessarily look out of place. He couldn't keep up with the pace, but he wasn't horribly slow. He didn't look out of place physically. He was fundamentally sound.




Personally, I think it points to a solid contender, but one that will likely be an 'underlay'.
The trip was fortunate enough, that Ami's Flatter's odds will probably be bet a little lower by the public than 'fair-odds'.

taxicab
01-30-2015, 12:06 AM
This race came up very strong.
Perhaps the deepest edition ever.
Good for TBD.....the little track that tries is doing well.
I'll avoid the :11: ,tough draw and lack of experience at two turns spooks me off @ a short price.
I'll probably side with :3: Ami's Flatter.
He needed his last badly and ran on well,trainer Josie knows what to do with a good young horse.

letswastemoney
01-30-2015, 12:18 AM
Yea.

And oh yea - not sure if I gave you a 'congrats' yet on your writing gig with Lady and The Track. That's pretty cool. I've checked them out on facebook. :ThmbUp: Thanks. My editor is pretty cool and lets me write what I want for the most part...although I am mindful of the audience and make sure I don't get too bogged down in numbers.

I almost chose the Sam F. Davis for my analysis this weekend, but after starting this post and thinking about it, it's just too boring.

If Ocean Knight loses, I don't think the winner will be a Derby contender. I like Ocean Knight though. I hope he gets the job done here and takes on a race with Derby points next time.

whodoyoulike
01-30-2015, 05:35 PM
You have to remind yourself that these are developing 3yo's still early in the year. Someone can figure it out and greatly improve and others may regress very badly at times.

I don't normally wager on 3yo's this early in the year. But, since I've sorta handicapped this race I'm going see if I can maintain my own personal discipline for this race (I doubt it).

Btw, I think the race will be run in 104.5 +/-.

Robert Fischer
01-30-2015, 10:07 PM
You have to remind yourself that these are developing 3yo's still early in the year. Someone can figure it out and greatly improve and others may regress very badly at times.

Here are 5 horses that I think could be on the "come up".

This list and comments are only about potential improvement, and have nothing to do with whether I think they are contenders.




Ocean Knight - No surprise here. There are more questions about a potentially wide trip, than there are about his inherent talent. It's possible that he could be a developing grade2 3yo. The public sees it, but he's a major player.
Royal Son - 'Flat' in 3 starts. Never flashed what I'd call 'talent' yet, and may not have that, but he's been in touch with fast horses in sprints, and comes in 2nd off the layoff with the top conditioner and top jockey. Could he finish a little better today? I don't think he's top class horse, but he could certainly move a little forward. Public may still bet the trainer, we'll see.
My Johnny Be Good - Probably not much value here, with the cool name and the flashy win in cheap company, but I think he could be in midst of an upswing in maturity.
Coomer - He works good, has been well bet, and was poached first time out for 50k. Good speed in the slop-fest on debut and then a strong finish at CD. The ugly looking form helps his value a lot.
G Five - Too cheap on paper. Benefited from an absolute dream trip last time in a pace collapse(which you typically want to avoid like the plague) where his stablemate did all the work and G Five couldn't get within 5 lengths of that stablemate. On the bright side - sometimes those dream-trip pace collapse races can benefit a horse like this. He got to ride the race-flow and duel another horse. There's a chance it could be a momentum builder. The supertrainer and the cool name probably hurt his value some.

WJ47
01-31-2015, 02:26 AM
I'm going for a longshot: Coomer. :)

Johnny V
01-31-2015, 02:45 AM
:3: Ami's Flatter

JohnGalt1
01-31-2015, 08:20 AM
They are all too close to separate for me. If I do anything with this race in a multiple race wager, I will hit the all button.

Spiderman
01-31-2015, 09:13 AM
The only runner who has displayed good form at today's distance is :9:, My Johnny Be Good. In his race at Kee, he closed ground; he has won at TB; has tactile speed to make a forward move; his jockey wins at a 26% clip at TB. An attractive play at 6-1.

While many are considering :11: as the second coming of Seattle Slew, I will wait to see his race today. He did look very good in winning a msw at AQ. Value will be determining factor to use in an exacta with top pick.

:1: is 2-2 at TB, though both were sprints. His last 1/8 mile times are impressive. His running style is to stalk. He will be in reserve until approaching the stretch turn. His pedigree shouts "sprint".

:2: Will be winging from the gate and has shown a 1:09.8 fraction at SAR; only :9: has shown ability to stalk and go from near a possible 1:11 6f split; pedigree is is excellent fro distance.


:8: other Pletcher entrant had some trouble in last and will be moving late.

Will wait for payout board to structure bets. At this time, :2: :9: exacta box looks to have high value, perhaps $100 either way.

Robert Fischer
01-31-2015, 10:30 AM
SAM F. DAVIS STAKES(TAMPA Race-11)

Key Contenders + Longshots

Key Contenders = 11-OCEAN KNIGHT - big league son of CURLIN who can really run. Should have time to secure a 2-wide pressing trip into the first turn. As talented as he appears, the wide post actually buys some time and space for the likely favorite...
The only horse I can see beating OCEAN KNIGHT straight up is the 1-CATALINA RED - Ran down the Jorge Navarro trained X Y JET in a strong edition of the Pasco Stakes. Was flattered when X Y JET later gave touted BARBADOS all he could handle in the Hutcheson Stakes. Local rider Daniel Centeno will patiently guide CATALINA RED and give him every opportunity to contend.
2-ROYAL SON has the tactical speed and inside post to be in the mix underneath.

LONG SHOTS = 10-COOMER has a 22.52 first quarter to his credit, and a 24.68 quarter to finish off a route at today's distance to his credit. Don't let the big price fool you.
5-DIVINING ROD is a handy, well-bred entry for Lael Stables. Draws a local rider who will put DIVINING ROD into striking range in the 2nd flight, and hope to pass some fading favorites late.


Pick = 11 OCEAN KNIGHT

Straight Bet = I want at least about 9/5 WIN on OCEAN KNIGHT to really make it a worthwhile play. If he's in that range - Win Plc and possibly even Shw could all have a slight value edge.(If he isn't crushed across the board, presence of long shots could spice up). Otherwise I'll pass the WPS betting entirely here.

Exotics =$0.10(10cents) SU 1,11/1,2,11/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,5,9,10,12 =$5.30
=$0.10(10cents) SU 11/1,2/1,2,3,5,9,10/1,2,3,5,9,10,12 =$5.00
=$0.10(10cents) SU 11/1,2/1,2,3,9,10/1,2,3,9,10 =$2.40

Tom
01-31-2015, 10:56 AM
First pass, :11: :8: :3:

:11: - one start, stretches out, ship to Florida, with jock....why go if you aren't pretty sure?

:8: says 5 wide, but he actually ran less distance than the winner. Might have been helped by a fast pace, but lookes decent enough if he has some odds.

:3: Second try at a route, should be fitter today

Not really liking anything else right now.

biggestal99
01-31-2015, 12:26 PM
:3: Ami's Flatter--Made the big jump up last out to one turn mile listed race at GP on dirt from a 7f maiden breaker at Woodbine over the synthetic. Ran gangbusters considering what she was up against; now show up at Tampa for the G3 Davis going two turns. I would usually be apprehensive about the 2 turns except the a very close relative (Ami's Holiday) won the 3rd jewel of the Canadian triple crown, the Breeders Crown S. going 12F on turf with the exact same connections. I know I won't get my price (4-1) so I prolly only use her in exotics unless the bettors completely ignore her in which case a win bet is preferred. Expecting a huge run here.

Allan

Secondbest
01-31-2015, 01:33 PM
I also like ami's flatter.In his last race he lost ground from the 3/4 to the stretch.Then gained ground in the stretch.A very positive move.Also his speed fig -timeform- rose from his first race to a 91 last out at gulf.

Ocala Mike
01-31-2015, 01:42 PM
Playing Harty all day today; already cashed in the 2nd.

:9: MY JOHNNY BE GOOD keeps improving; 4/1 or more.

letswastemoney
01-31-2015, 02:20 PM
While many are considering :11: as the second coming of Seattle Slew, I will wait to see his race today. He did look very good in winning a msw at AQ. Value will be determining factor to use in an exacta with top pick.

I don't think he has to be the second coming of Seatte Slew. He comes from experienced and high percentage connections though. They wouldn't jump from maiden to stakes race unless they had some confidence.

ArlJim78
01-31-2015, 02:50 PM
Playing Harty all day today; already cashed in the 2nd.

:9: MY JOHNNY BE GOOD keeps improving; 4/1 or more.
I also like My Johnny Be Good a lot. Good looking runner.

olddaddy
01-31-2015, 05:05 PM
:12:

I dont like the rest so might as well go real long.

salty
01-31-2015, 05:08 PM
After the last 2 races i wish Rosemary had a mount in this one.

Red Knave
01-31-2015, 05:24 PM
After the last 2 races i wish Rosemary had a mount in this one.
:ThmbUp: - :)

I think Catalina Red is a bit of an overlay but I can't bet it. Hope it's a good race

salty
01-31-2015, 05:25 PM
I am going to try with $10 wp on :12:

$10 show on :8: to back it up

TMQ
01-31-2015, 05:26 PM
Big Win money on the :2: I have a hunch he has a lot more to show!

salty
01-31-2015, 05:32 PM
well.... surprised the 5 stayed on

letswastemoney
01-31-2015, 05:35 PM
Odds kept shifting on Ocean Knight. Impressive win from a wide post.

Tom
01-31-2015, 05:36 PM
Not me - garbage races are big for 3 yos.
A whole filed of one-race wonders who run like pigs, some trash, and one good looking horse who will not be found anywhere new KY in May.

This field has a better shot of running at FL than CD. :lol:

cj
01-31-2015, 05:43 PM
well.... surprised the 5 stayed on

Lasix did the trick I guess.

Big Russ
01-31-2015, 06:56 PM
Lasix did the trick I guess.

Agreed, and he's probably better on dirt than turf. That was a good effort.

Robert Fischer
01-31-2015, 11:13 PM
Odds kept shifting on Ocean Knight. Impressive win from a wide post.

I thought it was pretty good.

From Trakus:
OK ran 49 more feet than DR (5 or 6 lengths)
and finished in 24.56

That's a solid effort.

raybo
02-01-2015, 03:30 AM
I had OK rated 4th, in my class ratings (with only a single race for the rating), but that race was a 97 class rating in a 91 race, probably moves him up to 1st or 2nd ranked, and he had the breeding and connection confidence to jump up in both class and distance. My opinion, you had to figure him a main contender for the win, and his off odds were just about right, IMO.

classhandicapper
02-02-2015, 09:10 AM
I had OK rated 4th, in my class ratings (with only a single race for the rating), but that race was a 97 class rating in a 91 race, probably moves him up to 1st or 2nd ranked, and he had the breeding and connection confidence to jump up in both class and distance. My opinion, you had to figure him a main contender for the win, and his off odds were just about right, IMO.

Typically, I class horses by looking at the caliber of horses they've beaten, the level they've been competitive against, and how consistently they've done it. Those are all "after the fact" measurements.

But a lightly raced horse like Ocean Knight can be of higher class before he actually accomplishes much.

If you made a list of horses with a very similar first start (a fast and impressive win), some would successfully move up and demonstrate their class and some would collapse under the pressure when tested against other fast quality horses.

Things like pedigree, trainer, owner, breeder, and purchase price are backdoor clues as to the probabilities, but they aren't objective measurements of that individual horse. They just help.

I suppose someone with exceptional visual skills might be able to tell the difference from watching a single start. I've been able to do that on occasion, but I wouldn't want to bet on my ability to do it consistently.