Mr. Z. - Has to be a hurt horse

[Track Phantom]

Mr. Z. was lugging for almost all of the stretch in the Los Al Futurity. Today, he was 4-5 in the Smarty Jones. He was all lathered up going into the gate. He took the lead turning for home and looked gone. He then drifted out VERY BADLY throughout the stretch.

There has to be something wrong with this horse, right? I hope it gets looked into.

[Stillriledup]

Yes, it will get looked into and Coach will deem the horse fit and ready, is there another stakes race in 2 weeks at a track 3,000 miles away from oaklawn that's offering free dining accommodations to anyone who enters?

[letswastemoney]

It doesn't have to mean he's hurt. It could just be a bad habit. Purple Egg runs like that in the stretch too.

[Track Phantom]

It doesn't have to mean he's hurt. It could just be a bad habit. Purple Egg runs like that in the stretch too.

That is true. Doesn't mean he is hurt but it is a legitimate possibility. Along with his lathering up before the race, doesn't look good.

[Ruffian1]

Mr. Z. was lugging for almost all of the stretch in the Los Al Futurity. Today, he was 4-5 in the Smarty Jones. He was all lathered up going into the gate. He took the lead turning for home and looked gone. He then drifted out VERY BADLY throughout the stretch.

There has to be something wrong with this horse, right? I hope it gets looked into.

Probably the best way to figure this out is to get a picture of his face , (the horses LOL) if possible when he was lugging in and when he was lugging out in those 2 races. Also the blinker . If you can find and post that, it will tell me quite a bit about what is going on.

Could just be that he is a bit of a goof off. If he was sore, the lugging in or out would not change. The horse would continue to stay away from the sore area not run into it. So it's probably something else.

Hope that helps.

[FrankieFigs]

Mr. Z. was lugging for almost all of the stretch in the Los Al Futurity. Today, he was 4-5 in the Smarty Jones. He was all lathered up going into the gate. He took the lead turning for home and looked gone. He then drifted out VERY BADLY throughout the stretch.

There has to be something wrong with this horse, right? I hope it gets looked into.

It didn't look like he drifted. It looked like he veered when Court hit him left-handed.

I'm no expert, but after watching the replay of today's race and the Jackpot, it looks like he is just a head case.

[Ocala Mike]

It didn't look like he drifted. It looked like he veered when Court hit him left-handed.



Totally agree; horse broke outward as soon as Court hit him.

[zico20]

I don't know what happened to him. I turned the tv off as soon as they went across the wire. Mr. Z not running 1st or 2nd cost me the super 10 times. Oh well, these things happen. Looking forward to Feb 7th in the Robert Lewis stakes. Dortmund against Firing Line. God I hope they can get 6 horses for the race.

[horses4courses]

While watching the race live, I thought Mr. Z would be pulled up.
On the replay it didn't look quite as bad.

I still think this horse is damaged goods, though.
Hopefully, he will come right again.

[Stillriledup]

Totally agree; horse broke outward as soon as Court hit him.
Should Court have known about this horse's quirks? Why hit the horse at all, he seemed like he was on his way to a win, or at least a 2nd place finish, you get a weak jock and he panics and that's what happens. He probably wins easy with smith.

[Tall One]

Totally agree; horse broke outward as soon as Court hit him.


This colt stays straight, and he would've probably been right there. His stable mate, TCB, hates the stick. Sulks when she gets more than two taps. Could Mr. Z developed a similar trait? We'll see what Lukas says, but I hope he comes back ok.

[letswastemoney]

I wrote a new article (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/11083/2015-lecomte-and-smarty-jones-results.html) analyzing the results.

Mr. Z would have won if the jockey never hit him left-handed, but I don't think I'd want to choose a crazy horse like that going forward. He's too unprofessional. Hopefully Lukas works out the kinks.

[menifee]

Mr. Z keeps running the same race over and over again. He is what he is. Race came back fairly weak. Not really impressed with any of these horses. I thought the Le Comte was a stronger race and may produce a future winner for the derby preps. International Star showed a nice turn of foot after being stopped on the rail.

[Some_One]

Mr. Z keeps running the same race over and over again. He is what he is. Race came back fairly weak. Not really impressed with any of these horses. I thought the Le Comte was a stronger race and may produce a future winner for the derby preps. International Star showed a nice turn of foot after being stopped on the rail.

The winner had a pretty good check in the turn but still rerallied and drove through a tight gap on the rail (how many young horses wouldn't want to go through that type of gap?). A lot of good signs showed today.

[Donttellmeshowme]

the horse is shying away from something-Could be the whip, could be a shadow, could be something in the infield. They better figure out what it is before the horse causes an accident.

[Stillriledup]

the horse is shying away from something-Could be the whip, could be a shadow, could be something in the infield. They better figure out what it is before the horse causes an accident.

Court rode that horse like an amateur, there was no reason to reach up and whack that horse left handed, the horse was running hard he looked to be a winner, all Court had to do was hand ride him down to the line and he made it worse by panicking after the horse started to drift.

[classhandicapper]

Maybe Mike Smith knew something the rest of us didn't given that he ended up on the winner instead of Mr Z, who he rode last time.

[Tall One]

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseDisplay.do?track=OP&country=USA&raceDate=20150119&raceNo=8

Here's the chart if anybody hasnt looked at it.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Maybe Mike Smith knew something the rest of us didn't given that he ended up on the winner instead of Mr Z, who he rode last time.

I think we all know what Mr. Z is now having already raced 9 times and still eligible for the NL2 condition. This horse reminds me a lot of Ride on Curlin from last year, where he tries every time, but in the end he's probably a Grade 3 horse at best. I think Smith didn't see a lot of upside with Mr. Z and the purse was small enough he could choose a different mount.

[zico20]

Court rode that horse like an amateur, there was no reason to reach up and whack that horse left handed, the horse was running hard he looked to be a winner, all Court had to do was hand ride him down to the line and he made it worse by panicking after the horse started to drift.

I guess Lukas didn't learn his lesson. He just announced that Court will ride Take Charge Brandi in her next race.

[letswastemoney]

I think we all know what Mr. Z is now having already raced 9 times and still eligible for the NL2 condition. This horse reminds me a lot of Ride on Curlin from last year, where he tries every time, but in the end he's probably a Grade 3 horse at best. I think Smith didn't see a lot of upside with Mr. Z and the purse was small enough he could choose a different mount.Mr. Z can run with any 3 year old. His effort against Dortmund and Firing Line proved that.

His problem is either his head or that he's injured. But I think he's got talent.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Mr. Z can run with any 3 year old. His effort against Dortmund and Firing Line proved that.

His problem is either his head or that he's injured. But I think he's got talent.

He's a nice horse I agree, but what upside do you still see in him after 9 races and just one win. It's not a positive sign to see him "skiing" in the lane this late in his development. I thought he had every chance to win the Delta Jackpot, but he hung late. Now, he's all over the track against a suspect field. If anything I see him regressing. Knowing Lukas he'll run him a bunch of times to get derby points to probably make the field. Having him as a "live" futures bet is the only positive I see in him.

[letswastemoney]

He's a nice horse I agree, but what upside do you still see in him after 9 races and just one win. It's not a positive sign to see him "skiing" in the lane this late in his development. I thought he had every chance to win the Delta Jackpot, but he hung late. Now, he's all over the track against a suspect field. If anything I see him regressing. Knowing Lukas he'll run him a bunch of times to get derby points to probably make the field. Having him as a "live" futures bet is the only positive I see in him.I would never bet on a horse like Mr. Z on top in the first slot if someone gave me a free bet.

But if they can fix the straight line problem, whether through a hand ride...extension blinkers...different training methods...I don't know. If they can fix it, I think he will pick up a check in most graded stakes races.

I didn't see a regression in terms of ability in the Smarty Jones. He withstood the pace set by the no hope longshot and kicked away strongly for a short while before going off course after being whipped.

[Tall One]

Mr. Z can run with any 3 year old. His effort against Dortmund and Firing Line proved that.

His problem is either his head or that he's injured. But I think he's got talent.


It's in his head. Colt might have one of the sharpest pedigrees on the Derby trail, and if Wayne can demonstrate some patience with this one, he can develop/mature into a great talent.*





*Especially for the ones who may or may not have him in the future pool..:faint:

[Donttellmeshowme]

any word on if this horse is hurt?

[Dark Horse]

It's in his head. Colt might have one of the sharpest pedigrees on the Derby trail, and if Wayne can demonstrate some patience with this one, he can develop/mature into a great talent.*


He lost the Delta Downs JP by a nose and the LA Futurity by a head in a three-way photo. His head is fine. That's just bad luck.

[raybo]

Hard to tell from the video, but it appeared to me that the left hand whip and the shadow from the grandstands happened at almost the exact same time. Either could have caused the problem. Personally, I think Jon wanted to make a statement, and win by lengths, otherwise he could have saved the whip until he actually needed it. The horse was moving very well already, when he hit the straight, and IMO, Jon should have waited a bit to use the whip. Of course, that's hindsight, and Jon may have been wondering where everyone else was, at the time, and if they were closing on him. Maybe a preventative measure to gain some more ground before the closers established their run.

The puzzling part for me is, why switch to the left hand? He was not bearing in at that point and the pace setter was obviously not going to come to him. There didn't appear to be any reason to go to the left hand at that point, a right hand would have been just fine at that point, if he thought he needed the whip at all. Maybe he "felt" something in the horse that indicated the horse was about to veer left? Hard to say.

[Stillriledup]

It's in his head. Colt might have one of the sharpest pedigrees on the Derby trail, and if Wayne can demonstrate some patience with this one, he can develop/mature into a great talent.*





*Especially for the ones who may or may not have him in the future pool..:faint:

You just said:



"If Wayne can demonstrate some patience"

Yes, Patience is his middle name, this guy won't dance to just dance, every horse he trains is methodically entered in the proper spots, he won't just enter so he can be seen wearing his suit and sunglasses on a "big day" no sir not him, so you see, he's the most patient trainer out there"

Darrell Wayne Patience Lukas.

[Tall One]

You just said:



"If Wayne can demonstrate some patience"

Yes, Patience is his middle name, this guy won't dance to just dance, every horse he trains is methodically entered in the proper spots, he won't just enter so he can be seen wearing his suit and sunglasses on a "big day" no sir not him, so you see, he's the most patient trainer out there"

Darrell Wayne Patience Lukas.


There was as much sarcasm in my post as there was pine tar on George's bat...:D

Hell, Mr Z could run in all 4 derby preps at OP, and DWL might wheel him back in the Trial...:jump:

Seriously, this horse has been in my stable since the Spa..He's an honest horse who is right there. I'm just hoping for the best. Like DH said, he just needs some luck.

[PaceAdvantage]

You just said:



"If Wayne can demonstrate some patience"

Yes, Patience is his middle name, this guy won't dance to just dance, every horse he trains is methodically entered in the proper spots, he won't just enter so he can be seen wearing his suit and sunglasses on a "big day" no sir not him, so you see, he's the most patient trainer out there"

Darrell Wayne Patience Lukas.Tell us more new wisdom we haven't hear a gazillion times before... :bang: :rolleyes:

[Stillriledup]

Tell us more new wisdom we haven't hear a gazillion times before... :bang: :rolleyes:

Why bang the head and roll the eyes? I thought you were a fan of the Coach?

[tanner12oz]

He's another tap it rich

[Stoleitbreezing]

He's another tap it rich

Maybe not that pronounced like Tap it Rich, but he definitely has bad habits down the lane that has already cost him a couple of wins

[Tall One]

5F move this morning in 1:04.20 13/15..

[maclr11]

Lugged out the whole way in the work according to a friend at Oaklawn, also Zayat tweeted something about lugging out in the work.

[outofthebox]

Maybe the sore tooth is still bugging him..Lol. That was young Zayats excuse for the Smarty Jones. Hope they can figure out whats bugging him before something really goes bad, cause Lukas won't stop on him till Z stops himself..

[Stillriledup]

Maybe the sore tooth is still bugging him..Lol. That was young Zayats excuse for the Smarty Jones. Hope they can figure out whats bugging him before something really goes bad, cause Lukas won't stop on him till Z stops himself..

You mean "coach" won't do right by the horse? Seems like that guy doesn't just enter to enter, its not like he cares much about being seen in the dining room (sunglasses and suit) on the " biggest days" its all about the horse with him, he will skip dance after dance, big day after big day, and put the horse first. You won't see him on big days with outclassed horses just so he can be part of the excitement, that's not what this guy is all about.

[PaceAdvantage]

You mean "coach" won't do right by the horse? Seems like that guy doesn't just enter to enter, its not like he cares much about being seen in the dining room (sunglasses and suit) on the " biggest days" its all about the horse with him, he will skip dance after dance, big day after big day, and put the horse first. You won't see him on big days with outclassed horses just so he can be part of the excitement, that's not what this guy is all about.Is that you D. Wayne?

You are so in his head, it's scary... :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[affirmedny]

You mean "coach" won't do right by the horse? Seems like that guy doesn't just enter to enter, its not like he cares much about being seen in the dining room (sunglasses and suit) on the " biggest days" its all about the horse with him, he will skip dance after dance, big day after big day, and put the horse first. You won't see him on big days with outclassed horses just so he can be part of the excitement, that's not what this guy is all about.

Is "just entering to enter" anything like just posting to post?? ;)

[Tall One]

Round two Monday in the Southwest. Nakatani in for the ride.

[Stillriledup]

Is "just entering to enter" anything like just posting to post?? ;)

I wouldn't know, but if you figure it out, i'd love to hear about it. ;)

[castaway01]

I wouldn't know, but if you figure it out, i'd love to hear about it. ;)

Took you two weeks to come up with a comeback and that was the best you could do?

[Stillriledup]

Took you two weeks to come up with a comeback and that was the best you could do?

What, no good?

[letswastemoney]

I pick Mr. Z to run second.

[Stillriledup]

Todd and Pauly saying they don't like Mr Z today....probably means to unload.

Btw, bumping this BEFORE the race, not after.

[Robert Fischer]

Solid effort.

He ran like hell from the outside post, then out finished pace-rival #3.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Ran gamely down the lane today, but again was 2nd best. Looks like 2015's edition of Ride on Curlin placing several times in graded company appearing to be a cut below the best right now. N2L career thus far will need to cut back in distance or class relief to debunk bridesmaid status.

[Donttellmeshowme]

dead last today

[letswastemoney]

I originally didn't believe the OP, but maybe he is hurt. He had hit the board 80% of the time before today.

[PaceMasterT]

I originally didn't believe the OP, but maybe he is hurt. He had hit the board 80% of the time before today.

He has passed 12 horses in 10 races and 8 of those passes came in 3 6f races and you put the horse in a position where he has to pass horses. What are the odds that he is going to pass a horse (let alone 2) in today's route? That is all you have to say about today's race, not that he might/might not be injured.

[wisconsin]

dead last today

Yeah that never happens :rolleyes:

[Stoleitbreezing]

Needs class relief and better suited for sprints. He had a handful of races without the shades and was unable to breakthrough there. Many players were enticed by the potential "value" he was supposed to be, but he again failed at a low price. I wonder if the coach tries to get cute and put him in the Lexington. N2L after 11 starts now. 2015 version of Ride on Curlin.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Yeah that never happens :rolleyes:







Good ole ball coach thats ur boy....

[classhandicapper]

dead last today

When he started backing up it looked like something was amiss to me.

[Stillriledup]

Heading to the Preakness allegedly.

[cj]

Heading to the Preakness allegedly.

Either he doesn't belong, or they aren't going to try to run early again like the Derby, which means he doesn't belong.

[horses4courses]

Either he doesn't belong, or they aren't going to try to run early again like the Derby, which means he doesn't belong.

That wouldn't be enough to stop DWL

[Stillriledup]

That wouldn't be enough to stop DWL

Nothing stops him, if he has an eligible horse, he runs, his glory of being seen in the dining room on racings biggest days trumps all.

[Tom]

Heading to the Preakness allegedly.

They should charge him admission to the track.
He has as much change as anyone in the infield. Maybe less than some. :lol:

[Stillriledup]

They should charge him admission to the track.
He has as much change as anyone in the infield. Maybe less than some. :lol:

I guess you get free admission and a reserved table in the dining room, i commented right here at PA that None of DWLs many entrants on Derby day had no shot to hit the board, so, he must have either entered to enter, or there is some kind of dining room situation incentive for his owners, why else would you enter horse who have no shot?

[letswastemoney]

Bodyguard for American Pharoah again?

[Stillriledup]

Bodyguard for American Pharoah again?

I heard that as a conspiracy theory this morning, Rich Perloff fielded an E mail about that.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Heading to the Preakness allegedly.




Not surprising at all. He's going to run this horse into the ground. Good ole Wayne.

[outofthebox]

He just doesn't want to miss out on the crab cakes. The Sir Barton would be a better spot.

[PaceAdvantage]

The anti-DWL brigade never fails to bore.

[horses4courses]

The anti-DWL brigade never fails to bore.

Lukas sits high on the list of great US trainers.
There is no disputing that.

I just think that when we hit the 21st century,
he had been out in the desert for so long,
that he started to lose it, and went for broke.
He hated being out of that Triple Crown circle.

Anything with four legs and the ability to breathe
was his ticket there, provided he could qualify.
The only thing to stop him was a realistic owner,
and that ain't happening.

Call it what you like.
I think the man feels he belongs there - even at 50-1.

[wisconsin]

Not surprising at all. He's going to run this horse into the ground. Good ole Wayne.

Please.

Where is your trolling about Joe Gluepot at every racetrack who starts a horse more than 12 times a year?

[PaceAdvantage]

Qualifying these days isn't a simple task. So just qualifying gives weight to the argument that the horse belongs.

And I think you're severely discounting the owner's starring role on where a horse like this next races.

As an owner you have radically FEWER chances at running in a TC race than say, a trainer like DWL, who realistically has a shot each and every year of running one in the classics.

So in my opinion, the owner has much more influence on running a questionable horse in a TC event. Am I the only one that sees the logic in this?

[wisconsin]

Lukas sits high on the list of great US trainers.
There is no disputing that.

I just think that when we hit the 21st century,
he had been out in the desert for so long,
that he started to lose it, and went for broke.
He hated being out of that Triple Crown circle.

Anything with four legs and the ability to breathe
was his ticket there, provided he could qualify.
The only thing to stop him was a realistic owner,
and that ain't happening.

Call it what you like.
I think the man feels he belongs there - even at 50-1.

The horse sleeps in the same type of stall as a $5000 claimer. He goes to the track and trains in the morning, just like that $5000 claimer. Then, he runs in a race, win or lose, just like that same $5000 claimer. The horse does not know the difference, so why is this such a big deal.

It's not your horse. Everyone has an ego, including the self-righteous you.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm sure Mr. Z would be the next superstar in the hands of say, a Bill Mott or a Jack Van Berg...oops...sorry about that last one...

[Donttellmeshowme]

Lukas sits high on the list of great US trainers.
There is no disputing that.

I just think that when we hit the 21st century,
he had been out in the desert for so long,
that he started to lose it, and went for broke.
He hated being out of that Triple Crown circle.

Anything with four legs and the ability to breathe
was his ticket there, provided he could qualify.
The only thing to stop him was a realistic owner,
and that ain't happening.

Call it what you like.
I think the man feels he belongs there - even at 50-1.





Post of the decade.......

[PaceAdvantage]

Post of the decade.......Not sure how, seeing these types of things were being written about Lukas since I first started running this board, which was way back in July 1999....

[wisconsin]

Not sure how, seeing these types of things were being written about Lukas since I first started running this board, which was way back in July 1999....

Yes, and we are all still forever waiting for that sensational and riveting expose on Lukas from Zilzal46.

[outofthebox]

Qualifying these days isn't a simple task. So just qualifying gives weight to the argument that the horse belongs.

And I think you're severely discounting the owner's starring role on where a horse like this next races.

As an owner you have radically FEWER chances at running in a TC race than say, a trainer like DWL, who realistically has a shot each and every year of running one in the classics.

So in my opinion, the owner has much more influence on running a questionable horse in a TC event. Am I the only one that sees the logic in this?In most cases PA, you are right. Both Justin(manager) and father do not want to run in the Preakness. D.Wayne who is clearly blessed with the gift of gab will surely present his case to run. I was lucky enough to work for the man for a couple of years and fully understand how persuasive his arguments can be.

[Tall One]

The horse needs a breather. Lay him off until the Spa and run him back in a 7F NW2L AOC and go from there.

[wisconsin]

The horse needs a breather. Lay him off until the Spa and run him back in a 7F NW2L AOC and go from there.

Yes, we should continue to pamper and protect these animals who were bred to what, run?

Maybe there should be a common sense law to limit starts to say, 7 per year.

Part of the reason for short fields is the wussification of horses today.

[Tall One]

Yes, we should continue to pamper and protect these animals who were bred to what, run?

Maybe there should be a common sense law to limit starts to say, 7 per year.

Part of the reason for short fields is the wussification of horses today.



Um, ok..here's a horse who has danced a lot of dances since he broke his MDN last summer at CD, and has amassed all of one win; albeit against a lot of heavy hitters. WTF is wrong with turning him out for a few weeks, bringing him back into training for a premier summer meet, and having a fresh horse for a fall campaign?

[wisconsin]

Um, ok..here's a horse who has danced a lot of dances since he broke his MDN last summer at CD, and has amassed all of one win; albeit against a lot of heavy hitters. WTF is wrong with turning him out for a few weeks, bringing him back into training for a premier summer meet, and having a fresh horse for a fall campaign?

I know what you are saying. What is wrong with this picture is that the thread is really about Lukas.

There are a lot of horses who could use a rest, but people like you turn a blind eye on a Wednesday card. Because it's all about Lukas.

[Tall One]

I know what you are saying. What is wrong with this picture is that the thread is really about Lukas.

There are a lot of horses who could use a rest, but people like you turn a blind eye on a Wednesday card. Because it's all about Lukas.


People like me, huh? Do all two of my posts in this thread lead you to believe I'm a Wayne Lukas fan, or a fan of the way he's handled this horse? :rolleyes:


And actually, the thread is about the horse. Hence the title with Mr Z in it..not Mr Lukas has hemorrhoids from sitting in his saddle too long.

[pele polo]

Lukas sits high on the list of great US trainers.
There is no disputing that.

I just think that when we hit the 21st century,
he had been out in the desert for so long,
that he started to lose it, and went for broke.
He hated being out of that Triple Crown circle.

Anything with four legs and the ability to breathe
was his ticket there, provided he could qualify.
The only thing to stop him was a realistic owner,
and that ain't happening.

Call it what you like.
I think the man feels he belongs there - even at 50-1.

You make total, perfect sense. Especially considering he just won the Preakness a couple of years ago

[Stillriledup]

Yes, we should continue to pamper and protect these animals who were bred to what, run?

Maybe there should be a common sense law to limit starts to say, 7 per year.

Part of the reason for short fields is the wussification of horses today.

Some trainers who have posted here at PA have suggested horses know when they win, which must mean that they also know when they are getting their brains beat in race after race. There's also a lot of evidence that horses who are raced over their heads can more easily get "ruined" than if they're racing in the proper classes. If its not all about you and being seen at big events with a 3k suit and fancy aviators, why not run the horses in the classes they belong? I put up a post here about Lukas and his 7 Derby Day entrants and guess what? None of them hit the board, just like i promised a few days before.

Nobody can ever say that DWL sits around, the guy runs horses, works harder than anyone, beats most or all trainers to the barns in the morning, nobody can ever criticize his passion for the game, but why not just run horses where they belong, is it too hard to run 8-5 shots instead of no hopers?

Do you think a horse who continually gets drubbed would never lose a speck of confidence?

To me, if you continually run horses over their heads, you're not really doing right by the horse, you're putting yourself and your fame ahead of the horse.

He's D Wayne Lukas, shouldn't he know where his horses fit and in what spots they can win? I gave you 7 horses with 0 shot to hit the board on Derby day, if i knew that, why didn't he?

[depalma113]

Why does he do it?

Skyring and Oxbow are examples of why he does it.

You have to be in it to win it.

[Stillriledup]

Why does he do it?

Skyring and Oxbow are examples of why he does it.

You have to be in it to win it.

I'm not talking about those horses, i'm talking about all the no hopers he runs. Both of those horses were very good and had great shots in the races they were in, i know i made a nice hit on Skyring in a big race, Pimlico maybe?

[raybo]

Some trainers who have posted here at PA have suggested horses know when they win, which must mean that they also know when they are getting their brains beat in race after race. There's also a lot of evidence that horses who are raced over their heads can more easily get "ruined" than if they're racing in the proper classes. If its not all about you and being seen at big events with a 3k suit and fancy aviators, why not run the horses in the classes they belong? I put up a post here about Lukas and his 7 Derby Day entrants and guess what? None of them hit the board, just like i promised a few days before.

Nobody can ever say that DWL sits around, the guy runs horses, works harder than anyone, beats most or all trainers to the barns in the morning, nobody can ever criticize his passion for the game, but why not just run horses where they belong, is it too hard to run 8-5 shots instead of no hopers?

Do you think a horse who continually gets drubbed would never lose a speck of confidence?

To me, if you continually run horses over their heads, you're not really doing right by the horse, you're putting yourself and your fame ahead of the horse.

He's D Wayne Lukas, shouldn't he know where his horses fit and in what spots they can win? I gave you 7 horses with 0 shot to hit the board on Derby day, if i knew that, why didn't he?

Tell me honestly now. If you were a trainer, and you had a horse that gained enough points to run in the Derby, by running in official qualifying stakes races, and is physically sound, but might not be one of the better horses in the Derby field, would you tell yourself "No, this horse probably can't win so I won't enter him"?

If I was a trainer and had a horse like that, you can bet your bankroll I'd enter the horse in the Derby ad if he got a bad trip and never got his chance to run his race in the Derby, I'd probably run him in the Preakness too, as long as he's still physically sound. Race horses are bought and/or bred to race for money. Obviously, if a horse gains enough points to make the Derby field it has made you some money. Lots of people here and other places complain that horses don't run more often than they do, then you see one that runs once a month, and runs in the money enough times to get in the Derby, has a bad go in the Derby, and all of a sudden it's "don't run him in the Preakness, he might break down", or "he can't win or finish in the money", or "he needs a rest", or "the trainer doesn't care about the horse", etc.. You can't have it both ways, race horses are supposed to race, if they are physically sound. The fact that this horse has run as often as he has, and has not suffered injury, and has not refused to load or refused to run, should be enough evidence that he's a sound horse. Let him run, at least there will be one more horse in the field to take some of the money in the pools, somebody has to finish last, you're not being forced to bet him after all. "Poor horse" - LOL. If he was that abused he would probably refuse to run, or he would have probably broken down already. I say, good for you Lucas, if he looks good to the vet and you, and works good, keep running him, we need more like him!

[PaceAdvantage]

In most cases PA, you are right. Both Justin(manager) and father do not want to run in the Preakness. D.Wayne who is clearly blessed with the gift of gab will surely present his case to run. I was lucky enough to work for the man for a couple of years and fully understand how persuasive his arguments can be.How do you know ownership doesn't want to run in the Preakness?

If a guy like Zayat doesn't want to run in the Preakness, he's not going to run in the Preakness. Period.

[horses4courses]

You make total, perfect sense. Especially considering he just won the Preakness a couple of years ago

Oxbow, yes.....
I don't remember hearing much about him after that.
Did I miss something?

Lukas has had some nice horses in the past 5 years.
Just wish I'd hear him say, for once, in April/May
that he wants to sit one for a month, or two.
I think the horse has to be quite lame for that to happen.

It just seems to be all about DWL anymore. :ThmbDown:

[outofthebox]

How do you know ownership doesn't want to run in the Preakness?

If a guy like Zayat doesn't want to run in the Preakness, he's not going to run in the Preakness. Period.Because it was posted on your website in the Bloodhorse section stories. Sorry i'm not tech savy to post the link.

[cj]

Sounds like Zayat thinks the ride cost Mr. Z in the Derby. He thinks the rider was afraid to get in American Pharoah's way and rode too cautiously.

[TheGarMan]

Why does he do it?

Skyring and Oxbow are examples of why he does it.

You have to be in it to win it.

Wow, I remember that. Preakness day 2013? Back to back races? Boy did I make good money that day. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Because it was posted on your website in the Bloodhorse section stories. Sorry i'm not tech savy to post the link.You are correct sir:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91815/mr-z-camp-still-undecided-on-preakness

Glad to see Lukas doesn't let all this criticism alter his game plans...for better or worse.

Still, the owner has the ultimate final say.

[horses4courses]

Lukas sits high on the list of great US trainers.
There is no disputing that.

I just think that when we hit the 21st century,
he had been out in the desert for so long,
that he started to lose it, and went for broke.
He hated being out of that Triple Crown circle.

Anything with four legs and the ability to breathe
was his ticket there, provided he could qualify.
The only thing to stop him was a realistic owner,
and that ain't happening.

Call it what you like.
I think the man feels he belongs there - even at 50-1.

I rest my case.

Quote taken from Blood Horse article this morning:

The Louisville Courier-Journal reported via Twitter that Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas was en route to Baltimore with Zayat Stables' Mr. Z, who finished 13th in the Derby.

Ahmed Zayat tweeted that: "Can't stop that man. Wow. Mr Z will not run."

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91927/pletcher-will-not-have-preakness-starter#ixzz3ZwV4NdAs

[PaceAdvantage]

I rest my case.What case? :lol:

Everyone cries a river how nobody runs their horses anymore...fields are shorter than ever...and here we have a trainer that isn't afraid to run his horses and you've got nothing but unpleasantries to say about it.

When Zayat fires Lukas, let me know. I'm sure that's next.

[horses4courses]

What case? :lol:

Everyone cries a river how nobody runs their horses anymore...fields are shorter than ever...and here we have a trainer that isn't afraid to run his horses and you've got nothing but unpleasantries to say about it.

When Zayat fires Lukas, let me know. I'm sure that's next.

That a HOF trainer is now, quite possibly, delusional.
He's lost it - gone Fruit Loops.
It's pretty sad.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not feeding a troll...

[horses4courses]

Reportedly, both DWL and the horse are in transit to Pimlico.
He did this before consulting Zayat?

[ArlJim78]

Lukas likes to be there on the big days so he'll run with whatever he's got regardless of whether it makes sense or not. But every hundred or so attempts he'll actually win a graded race and as always the accolades will pour in.

[PaceAdvantage]

Reportedly, both DWL and the horse are in transit to Pimlico.
He did this before consulting Zayat?Sounds like a kidnapping to me. Best call the Maryland State Police and possibly the FBI.

There, I fed you.

[PaceAdvantage]

Lukas likes to be there on the big days so he'll run with whatever he's got regardless of whether it makes sense or not.Somehow, they always make sense though, when taken in context with all the other runners in the race, don't they Jim? Yeah, they do...but you choose to bust on Lukas, then man with the resume...for what reason, I'll never know.

Perhaps Lukas should be taking tips from other HOF trainers...guys like Jack Van Berg for instance? Ooops...

[horses4courses]

We've all been there.
That older relative who gets a little light in the head with advancing years.

[PaceAdvantage]

He won the 2013 Preakness and the 2014 BC Juvenile Fillies.

Yeah, his win% doesn't go much past 10 these days (currently at 6 after 100 some-odd starts), but your unseemly comments are out of line.

[wisconsin]

We've all been there.
That older relative who gets a little light in the head with advancing years.

Yeah, that's what it is. Really?

By God, why run a stakes horse in stakes races when you could run him an NW2L? If he ran this horse in allowance company this spring, is there any real doubt he would be out of conditions by now?

Then the next step would be stakes company anyway.

[horses4courses]

He won the 2013 Preakness and the 2014 BC Juvenile Fillies.

Yeah, his win% doesn't go much past 10 these days (currently at 6 after 100 some-odd starts), but your unseemly comments are out of line.

Maybe, I'm wrong.
I know that my comments aren't very respectful,
but the man seems hell bent on being in the limelight.

He's had some nice horses in recent years.
Will Take Charge was the best of them.
Saratoga may introduce another star, or two, for him.
He has some pretty loyal clients.

[Tom]

Don't forget Lady's Secret.

[Stillriledup]

What case? :lol:

Everyone cries a river how nobody runs their horses anymore...fields are shorter than ever...and here we have a trainer that isn't afraid to run his horses and you've got nothing but unpleasantries to say about it.

When Zayat fires Lukas, let me know. I'm sure that's next.

I don't think people are being critical of Lukas for running, i think the discussion is why run 50-1 shot, why enter in races you have no chance, you can run the same amount of horses in other races, races where you will be 8-5, the criticism stems from "ruining" horses by putting them in positions where they will be beat badly, do you need to ruin 100 horses so you can have one 40-1 shot fall thru the cracks? And, when that 40-1 falls thru the cracks it somehow legitimizes entering horses far over their heads just to get dining accomodations on "big days"?

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think people are being critical of Lukas for running, i think the discussion is why run 50-1 shot, why enter in races you have no chance, you can run the same amount of horses in other races, races where you will be 8-5, the criticism stems from "ruining" horses by putting them in positions where they will be beat badly, do you need to ruin 100 horses so you can have one 40-1 shot fall thru the cracks? And, when that 40-1 falls thru the cracks it somehow legitimizes entering horses far over their heads just to get dining accomodations on "big days"?Dude barely runs 100 times these days...and you have him ruining 100 horses for every Take Charge Brandi.

Whatever.

[Stillriledup]

Dude barely runs 100 times these days...and you have him ruining 100 horses for every Take Charge Brandi.

Whatever.

You were the one who said he isn't afraid to run and i was just asking why not run where you would be 8-5 and not 40-1? Won't you win more races if you're always running 8-5 shots? What's the lure of always leading no hopers over?

[ArlJim78]

Somehow, they always make sense though, when taken in context with all the other runners in the race, don't they Jim? Yeah, they do...but you choose to bust on Lukas, then man with the resume...for what reason, I'll never know.

Perhaps Lukas should be taking tips from other HOF trainers...guys like Jack Van Berg for instance? Ooops...
I don't know what you mean by "they always make sense".
I don't care about his resume in the 80's and 90's, he runs top stock into the ground every year and I'm convinced it's all about his ego.

Mr Z finished 13th by 15 lengths in the Derby! A total non factor but everyone except Lukas knew that going in. Can you honestly tell me that the Preakness is a logical spot for this horse given the current losing streak he's been on? I guess the positive news for him coming out of the derby is that he finally finished in front of Far Right, barely.

There's nothing wrong with running them frequently or even taking shots at the big time, but when you just keep plowing the same field over and over and over with little to show, pardon me but I fail to see the "genius" behind that manuever.

[Stillriledup]

I don't know what you mean by "they always make sense".
I don't care about his resume in the 80's and 90's, he runs top stock into the ground every year and I'm convinced it's all about his ego.

Mr Z finished 13th by 15 lengths in the Derby! A total non factor but everyone except Lukas knew that going in. Can you honestly tell me that the Preakness is a logical spot for this horse given the current losing streak he's been on? I guess the positive news for him coming out of the derby is that he finally finished in front of Far Right, barely.

There's nothing wrong with running them frequently or even taking shots at the big time, but when you just keep plowing the same field over and over and over with little to show, pardon me but I fail to see the "genius" behind that manuever.

This is the general point i was making too, he's D WAYNE LUKAS WITH A K NOT A C so shouldn't he be an expert at knowing where and when to run? Shouldn't he know what races would be a "good fit"? There's never any "good fit" with this guy, he's just entering in the biggest race available on the biggest day available.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know what you mean by "they always make sense".Meaning, his runners fit into the context of the rest of the field. There were horses who looked equally as unfit for winning the Derby and even some who were far worse, but you know that.

Hell, I had Mr. Z as one of my top five horses originally...then dropped him off the list...but he was definitely in my top half of the field in terms of contenders...I didn't think he had no shot. And I had the top three finishers in my top three (but not in the right order of course).

In any event, Lukas bashing is easy, I get it. But it's usually ill-founded.

[PaceAdvantage]

This is the general point i was making too, he's D WAYNE LUKAS WITH A K NOT A C so shouldn't he be an expert at knowing where and when to run? Shouldn't he know what races would be a "good fit"? There's never any "good fit" with this guy, he's just entering in the biggest race available on the biggest day available.He is an expert. That's why he leaves you scratching your head after horses like Take Charge Brandi win, while I on the other hand post this horse as my pick TO WIN, BEFORE the race is run.

[horses4courses]

Don't forget Lady's Secret.

His list of great horses is enormous.
Fillies and colts - terrific memories.
I just meant the ones in the past 5 years.

His outfit can still obviously train.
Take Charge Brandi, and other good horses, are evidence of that.

I just think he should be willing to sit a few out more often.
He has nothing to prove as a trainer - act more like it.

Mr.Z had little to no chance of being within 10 lengths of winning the Preakness.
At least Ahmed Zayat realized that.

[cj]

He is a race horse. He is sound. What is wrong with him racing?

Horses race at too high a level every single day a hundred times over. If the owner wants to run in that spot, who are we to judge? We need all the horses racing that we can get if they are healthy and sound.

I'd much rather have Lukas running horses seemingly over their heads than the opposite, Todd Pletcher avoiding competition at all costs and flopping when forced to face it on days like TC races and the Breeder's Cup.

[Stillriledup]

He is a race horse. He is sound. What is wrong with him racing?

Horses race at too high a level every single day a hundred times over. If the owner wants to run in that spot, who are we to judge? We need all the horses racing that we can get if they are healthy and sound.

Because we are racing fans and sports fans, that's what sports fans do, judge and discuss and debate. Why not run in a race where you would be 8-5 though, why not run where you 'belong'?

[Stillriledup]

He is an expert. That's why he leaves you scratching your head after horses like Take Charge Brandi win, while I on the other hand post this horse as my pick TO WIN, BEFORE the race is run.

You did and i almost mentioned that in my previous post, TCB had a shot despite the odds, that's why you selected her, however, not all his "bombs" have a shot, they would be better off running in easier races, races where they are 8-5.

Why not be an "expert" and run your horse in race where he can win, what am i missing?

[cj]

Because we are racing fans and sports fans, that's what sports fans do, judge and discuss and debate. Why not run in a race where you would be 8-5 though, why not run where you 'belong'?

Maybe they did think he belonged in the Derby. He narrowly lost to Firing Line and Dortmund in December. It isn't like he has never run well. He also ran better in the Arkansas Derby than he had in any recent race, so maybe they thought his form was improving.

If everyone ran horses like you guys suggest, Mine that Bird would have never won the Derby, and neither would Giacomo. Cat Thief wouldn't have won the Classic. I could go on and on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why not run in a race where you would be 8-5 though, why not run where you 'belong'?Why do I continue to put up with your nonsense?

[Stillriledup]

Why do I continue to put up with your nonsense?

Its only "nonsense" because you're not thinking clearly, your love of the coach has your judgement clouded. All im suggesting is why not run in easier races, why keep leading 50-1 shots over.

[PaceAdvantage]

cj had the patience to answer your question. Reference that.

[Tom]

His list of great horses is enormous.
Fillies and colts - terrific memories.
I just meant the ones in the past 5 years.

I was referring more to her last two starts.
It was not a compliment.

[menifee]

He is a race horse. He is sound. What is wrong with him racing?

Horses race at too high a level every single day a hundred times over. If the owner wants to run in that spot, who are we to judge? We need all the horses racing that we can get if they are healthy and sound.

I'd much rather have Lukas running horses seemingly over their heads than the opposite, Todd Pletcher avoiding competition at all costs and flopping when forced to face it on days like TC races and the Breeder's Cup.

CJ, I respect your opinion, but didn't you say this earlier about Mr. Z in the Preakness in this thread:

"Either he doesn't belong, or they aren't going to try to run early again like the Derby, which means he doesn't belong."

[cj]

CJ, I respect your opinion, but didn't you say this earlier about Mr. Z in the Preakness in this thread:

"Either he doesn't belong, or they aren't going to try to run early again like the Derby, which means he doesn't belong."

I don't think he would have a prayer, but I'm saying I am 100% fine with them running the horse if that is what they choose. As bettors, we should welcome this. It isn't like he was 1000 to 1 in the Derby, far from it. And he'd take money in the Preakness too.

[raybo]

I don't think he would have a prayer, but I'm saying I am 100% fine with them running the horse if that is what they choose. As bettors, we should welcome this. It isn't like he was 1000 to 1 in the Derby, far from it. And he'd take money in the Preakness too.

I agree, I wish he would run in the Preakness, I'd like to see 3 more just like him in the Preakness, just to fill out the field and provide more value. Whether or not a horse is "where he belongs" has nothing to do with what owners need, they need to get horses ready, they need to earn money, any money, not just win money. Not every horse that finishes 3rd or 4th was in the race to win, we all know that, but the owner still made some money rather than let the horse sit in the barn and eat oats.

Lukas' desire to run in the Preakness is not so hard to understand, and does not mean that he just wants to run in the big races with "anything that has 4 legs". Maybe he sees something in the horse that the owners, and we, don't see. Maybe he thinks the horse is sitting on a big race. Who knows? Certainly not the people on this forum! If you think you can do a better job than Lukas, then go prove it first, before you start making accusations about which you have no proof other than your own beliefs and biases.

If you think a horse is 50/1 then don't bet him, it's that simple. Just quit constantly complaining about a horse being in a race that you feel shouldn't be, it's not your decision to make, and it requires nothing of you. You should welcome any horse in the race that its trainer and owner want to enter.

[pele polo]

So many say he's lost it or he isn't what he used to be however:

Eclipse award Champions in back to back years. Also won a Classic and a Breeders Cup in last three years.

Lukas has about 30 horses in his barn.

Pletcher probably has over 200.

His win % may not be amazing but that last fact is.

[cj]

Mr. Z has been sold and will run in the Preakness for Calumet.

[TheGarMan]

Mr. Z has been sold and will run in the Preakness for Calumet.

This situation keeps getting stranger.... :confused:

[Tall One]

Siegel posted a brief story on DWL with one of thier horses on the Twitter. Worth a look.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Mr. Z has been sold and will run in the Preakness for Calumet.




Wowwwwwww

[PaceAdvantage]

DWL FTW!!!! :lol: :lol: :jump: :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

Mr. Z has been sold and will run in the Preakness for Calumet.The only horse I'd rather see win more than AP...really stick it to the bashers in this thread... :lol:

[raybo]

The only horse I'd rather see win more than AP...really stick it to the bashers in this thread... :lol:

I'm with you on this one! After listening to the interview with DWL about why he wanted to run Mr Z in the Preakness so much, what he said made some sense to me. Of course he has his work cut out for him if the top 3 run their race. Still, I'm glad he's running, one more horse in the field!

[ronsmac]

The only horse I'd rather see win more than AP...really stick it to the bashers in this thread... :lol:Good luck with that.

[RacingFan1992]

This just seems fishy to me. Zayat doesn't want to run him. Lukas wants to run him but is stopped Zayat. Calumet Farm buys Mr.Z. D. Wayne Lukas trains for Calumet. Mr. Z is entered in the Preakness. Wonder if Lukas had anything to do with this. Hmmmmm. :confused:

[cj]

This just seems fishy to me. Zayat doesn't want to run him. Lukas wants to run him but is stopped Zayat. Calumet Farm buys Mr.Z. D. Wayne Lukas trains for Calumet. Mr. Z is entered in the Preakness. Wonder if Lukas had anything to do with this. Hmmmmm. :confused:

Unless he somehow sold the horse without telling the Zayat's, what is the problem? They didn't have to sell him.

[Dark Horse]

If you think a horse is 50/1 then don't bet him, it's that simple. Just quit constantly complaining about a horse being in a race that you feel shouldn't be, it's not your decision to make, and it requires nothing of you. You should welcome any horse in the race that its trainer and owner want to enter.

Amen.

There are those who know it all before the race, and others who cash tickets.

[horses4courses]

Mr. Z has been sold and will run in the Preakness for Calumet.

This could only be described as a cunning stunt.

[ArlJim78]

This is hilarious coach says he's running, the owner says he isn't, so coach rings up Calumet, "hey I need you to buy this horse today so I can run in the Preakness". He does have a talent for getting owners to open their wallets I'll give him that. Coach says he's got him better than ever, so we'll see. Maybe 14 times is the charm as far cracking a 91 beyer. In my view coach at this point is Dorochenko only with 10 times better stock.

[Tall One]

If Zayat didn't want to run him, who's to say Lukas didn't broker a deal between Calumet and Zayat? Not like he doesn't train for both outfits.

Point is, Calumet's breeding and homebred interests are starting to take off again. They like the Triple Crown runners, and Mr Z is a regally bred colt who'd make a great addition to their stallion barn.

[johnhannibalsmith]

You were the one who said he isn't afraid to run and i was just asking why not run where you would be 8-5 and not 40-1? Won't you win more races if you're always running 8-5 shots? What's the lure of always leading no hopers over?

Guy runs a business first and foremost. Yum! Brands pays lord knows what or some Bourbon or whatever it is now to get their name on the air over and over again in tandem with the event. And still DWL! Brands is more associated with Triple Crown - American racing's ultimate goal - than any of them and new owners are not abundant, much less at the level he wants to be at. But, the moment you stop leading them over, people stop looking for you.

[Stillriledup]

Guy runs a business first and foremost. Yum! Brands pays lord knows what or some Bourbon or whatever it is now to get their name on the air over and over again in tandem with the event. And still DWL! Brands is more associated with Triple Crown - American racing's ultimate goal - than any of them and new owners are not abundant, much less at the level he wants to be at. But, the moment you stop leading them over, people stop looking for you.

This is a pretty good point, great point actually, owners won't remember all the bad entries he's had, they'll just remember the occasional win and the fact that he's always in these races.

[nijinski]

Oxbow put Calumet back on the map . It was their new owners
first grade 1 and in a classic none the less . This is a big goal of the new
owner . Therefore , my guess is that they have a lot of faith in DWL and
any suggestion would be considered .

Can't take away any of the success' of DWL in the Classics , over the yeas he proved that .

Handicapping the race though , I can't imagine Mr Z winning this but as
others have pointed out , it fills out the field .

[raybo]

This could only be described as a cunning stunt.

Possibly, but "cunning" by who? :lol:

[Stillriledup]

This could only be described as a cunning stunt.

I read that fast and i was like "a Stunning WHAT?"

:D

[horses4courses]

I read that fast and i was like "a Stunning WHAT?"

:D

;)

[horses4courses]

In all honesty, I'm happy that there is an eighth runner in the field.
It's only one more runner, but a seven horse field is too skinny.
Any money Mr. Z takes keeps the remaining odds higher.

His chances of winning?
Stranger things have happened.

[MJC922]

If you look at his early numbers he has Grade II & III ability but now he's just throwing junk every 2-3 weeks. Every indication the horse needs some rest, never more than 5 weeks off in his career. With some time this could turn out to be a solid older horse like a Moreno type for example, there's no need to burn through good horses like this. It's nice to see Todd doesn't follow directly in these footsteps. Wayne has accomplished a lot, nobody can take that away from him, but so many drop by the wayside it's unfortunate.

[horses4courses]

What's the Over/Under on Mr. Z's selling price?

I'll start the bidding - $150K

[ILovetheInner]

I am with the statement that the horse I'd be most thrilled to see win by this stage is Mr. Z. Back in his reigning days, I was far from Lukas' number one fan, but in his dead man walking era has won a BC with a maiden, had that upset score last year and also has a classic win to his credit....not bad for someone who is "done." There is a difference between having an opinion and being blinded by one. He sure could squeeze a lemon dry, but he also has been capable of pulling off some memorable upsets when plenty thought he had no shot or was making a mistake.

Mr. Z's decline is a little overstated. After moving forward in the South West there was a blinkers on debacle in the LA Derby....draw a line through it, as it was categorically the worst effort of his career. That resulted in an unexpected trip to the AK Derby two weeks later....was he supposed to be on his best for an unscheduled start in his second Derby prep?....and then he had a tough trip early in Louisville. He is better than those last three races on logic alone.

Does he fit with the top flight? Doubtful. But he's eligible to improve off his last three and if Lukas is that adamant, he will be on my tickets.

[minethatbird08]

Personally I think the horse needs a break or an easier race. Having said that I thought the same thing about Will Take Charge and Lukas got that ship turned around after bombing in all 3 TC races; yet he was the deserving 3yo champ.

Also, Lukas' insanity is somewhat an endearing quality. At this point in his career his resume speaks for itself.

[Donttellmeshowme]

This is hilarious coach says he's running, the owner says he isn't, so coach rings up Calumet, "hey I need you to buy this horse today so I can run in the Preakness". He does have a talent for getting owners to open their wallets I'll give him that. Coach says he's got him better than ever, so we'll see. Maybe 14 times is the charm as far cracking a 91 beyer. In my view coach at this point is Dorochenko only with 10 times better stock.





Bingo we have a winner..........

[Donttellmeshowme]

Its only "nonsense" because you're not thinking clearly, your love of the coach has your judgement clouded. All im suggesting is why not run in easier races, why keep leading 50-1 shots over.






Bingo we have another winner..........

[PaceAdvantage]

If you look at his early numbers he has Grade II & III ability but now he's just throwing junk every 2-3 weeks. Every indication the horse needs some rest, never more than 5 weeks off in his career. With some time this could turn out to be a solid older horse like a Moreno type for example, there's no need to burn through good horses like this. It's nice to see Todd doesn't follow directly in these footsteps. Wayne has accomplished a lot, nobody can take that away from him, but so many drop by the wayside it's unfortunate.They all drop by the wayside eventually.

[Stillriledup]

If you look at his early numbers he has Grade II & III ability but now he's just throwing junk every 2-3 weeks. Every indication the horse needs some rest, never more than 5 weeks off in his career. With some time this could turn out to be a solid older horse like a Moreno type for example, there's no need to burn through good horses like this. It's nice to see Todd doesn't follow directly in these footsteps. Wayne has accomplished a lot, nobody can take that away from him, but so many drop by the wayside it's unfortunate.

You think Zenyatta would have had the career she had if this guy was training her and managing her career and calling the shots from day 1?

:D

GREAT POST.

[cj]

You think Zenyatta would have had the career she had if this guy was training her and managing her career and calling the shots from day 1?

:D

GREAT POST.

Probably would have had more losses, and been more accomplished.

[Stillriledup]

Probably would have had more losses, and been more accomplished.

So no chance the guy would have just ruined her in training and rushed her and tried to start her before she was almost a 4 year old?

She made 7.3 million. How many horses has the "Coach" trained to a 7+ million dollar career?

[johnhannibalsmith]

... How many horses has the "Coach" trained to a 7+ million dollar career?

The guy was THE stallion maker. He was practically an alchemist they way he could turn pretty run of the mill colts into big money studs for his owners. That was him, not the horse, a number of times.

[Stillriledup]

The guy was THE stallion maker. He was practically an alchemist they way he could turn pretty run of the mill colts into big money studs for his owners. That was him, not the horse, a number of times.

For decades nobody spent more money at auction on fancy horses, so you would think just in the numbers game, he was going to hit some home runs, wouldn't anyone in the world have hit a few home runs with that many fancy horses?

[johnhannibalsmith]

For decades nobody spent more money at auction on fancy horses, so you would think just in the numbers game, he was going to hit some home runs, wouldn't anyone in the world have hit a few home runs with that many fancy horses?

I'm not going to get roped into your tap dance. Yes, he has trained a lot of horses to careers well in excess of your parameter for excellence. You got an answer to your question and this rebuttal of nonsense and conjecture is for another member of the fan club. Ask Godolphin and the al-Maktoums how easy it is to hit home runs with big auction buys pointing for the Triple Crown.

[Stillriledup]

I'm not going to get roped into your tap dance. Yes, he has trained a lot of horses to careers well in excess of your parameter for excellence. You got an answer to your question and this rebuttal of nonsense and conjecture is for another member of the fan club. Ask Godolphin and the al-Maktoums how easy it is to hit home runs with big auction buys pointing for the Triple Crown.

If you open up the bankbook at yearling auctions year after year decade after decade and buy the best horses money can buy, you're going to hit home runs here and there no matter what. That has nothing to do with training ability, placing ability or anything else, very few get any kind of real shot at the hundreds and hundreds of fancy pedigree horses, Lukas had the most shots, its not hard to understand.

[Robert Fischer]

Lukas' prime was a little before my time.

Did Pletcher get his start assisting Lukas, or do I have the story wrong?

Seems like Lukas was an undisputed elite trainer for a while.

[nijinski]

Lukas' prime was a little before my time.

Did Pletcher get his start assisting Lukas, or do I have the story wrong?

Seems like Lukas was an undisputed elite trainer for a while.

Yes Pletcher worked for his barn under his son Jeff ..

[cj]

So no chance the guy would have just ruined her in training and rushed her and tried to start her before she was almost a 4 year old?

She made 7.3 million. How many horses has the "Coach" trained to a 7+ million dollar career?

I said probably, which means there is a chance of something else happening. Reading is Fundamental.

[Robert Fischer]

Yes Pletcher worked for his barn under his son Jeff ..

That's pretty cool.

I also haven't reviewed stats or anything, but I seem to remember some times during the 80s when I was a kid, and I was able to notice that Lukas seemed to in the elite group. I could be wrong and maybe it was just a 'numbers game' where he had a massive barn, but he seemed pretty good at that time.

He's not elite now, but I respect him. He also has to be in his 70s and he's tough and he carries himself well.

Sometimes it seems that on the internet, people can argue about ANYTHING! :rolleyes::)

[Stillriledup]

That's pretty cool.

I also haven't reviewed stats or anything, but I seem to remember some times during the 80s when I was a kid, and I was able to notice that Lukas seemed to in the elite group. I could be wrong and maybe it was just a 'numbers game' where he had a massive barn, but he seemed pretty good at that time.

He's not elite now, but I respect him. He also has to be in his 70s and he's tough and he carries himself well.

Sometimes it seems that on the internet, people can argue about ANYTHING! :rolleyes::)

DWL is an amazing legend in the game, no doubt about it. Also, nobody works harder than him or has more passion. The "arguments" are strictly from an entering standpoint. Can he "enter better" and not just toss any horse in the biggest and most important race he can find. Some say that because once in a while he strikes with a 40-1 in a big race, he should enter in the highest spot available without taking into consideration the horse as an individual and what that horse's needs might be. You can debate it either way. Esteemed poster John Hannibal Smith made a potent point that Lukas is a "brand" and he's the 'go to' guy for owners if you want to run in the Triple crown as well as other big races and that there's essentially a method to the madness of entering and being seen on big days.

Some have indicated that they 'all drop by the wayside eventually' so i take that as meaning horses aren't hurt in anyway by getting their brains beat in from superior competition and that horses don't 'know' if they win or if they're beaten by double digits 10 times in a row, that the horse runs its 'same race' without losing confidence or being 'ruined' by having to extend him or herself vs competition they can't beat.

At the end of the day though, Lukas isn't the only trainer who enters big longshots, doesn't 'rest' horses maybe like a John Sheriffs might do and for that, he's always going to have 'haters' and 'naysayers'. If you love the guy unconditionally though, he's not going to be entering badly or anything like that, i get hero warship.

Everyone needs a hero that they defend unconditionally, why not have a hero named Darrell Lukas.

[wisconsin]

He also has to be in his 70s

On the doorstep to 80.

[Stillriledup]

Sports Illustrated article on Wayne Lukas and his family.

http://www.si.com/longform/lukas/

[Tall One]

Yes Pletcher worked for his barn under his son Jeff ..


Mike Maker, Dallas Stewart, Kiarin McLaughlin, and George Weaver (IIRC) all came up under Lukas.

[ronsmac]

So no chance the guy would have just ruined her in training and rushed her and tried to start her before she was almost a 4 year old?

She made 7.3 million. How many horses has the "Coach" trained to a 7+ million dollar career?She would've had 9+ million if Shirreffs hadn't sent Zardana to the Fair Grounds and defeated Rachel. Rachel would've won by 9 and the 5 million dollar Apple Blossom would have still been on , where Zenyatta would have picked up 2.5 million after winning.

[cj]

She would've had 9+ million if Shirreffs hadn't sent Zardana to the Fair Grounds and defeated Rachel. Rachel would've won by 9 and the 5 million dollar Apple Blossom would have still been on , where Zenyatta would have picked up 2.5 million after winning.

Imagine how much she could have won if she had been good enough to beat Blame!

[ReplayRandall]

Imagine how much she could have won if she had been good enough to beat Blame!
Mike Smith is at fault, not Zenyatta, for losing to Blame, period......and he knows it, and so should you CJ... :cool:

[nijinski]

Mike Maker, Dallas Stewart, Kiarin McLaughlin, and George Weaver (IIRC) all came up under Lukas.

Yes indeed and Lukas has said that if it were not for that heartbreaking
day Tabasco Cat got loose , Jeff would have likely gone on to a
successful career like the others . He truly was the Grand Master for
whom those mentioned moved up from.

[Stillriledup]

She would've had 9+ million if Shirreffs hadn't sent Zardana to the Fair Grounds and defeated Rachel. Rachel would've won by 9 and the 5 million dollar Apple Blossom would have still been on , where Zenyatta would have picked up 2.5 million after winning.

Its all conjecture because you don't know how her health would have remained running on tracks and shipping all around the country.

[raybo]

If you open up the bankbook at yearling auctions year after year decade after decade and buy the best horses money can buy, you're going to hit home runs here and there no matter what. That has nothing to do with training ability, placing ability or anything else, very few get any kind of real shot at the hundreds and hundreds of fancy pedigree horses, Lukas had the most shots, its not hard to understand.

As do Pletcher and Baffert now, so what's your point, that the only reason DWL won lots of races, not just big stakes races, was that he got lots of very good horses? Or, did he get lots of good horses because he was a very good trainer?

They go hand in hand don't they, the best get the best horses, and the best horses win lots of races. DWL has far fewer opportunities now than the others, so, even though he has a few good horses they aren't as good as some of the other barns. He still has to try to put his owners where they want to be, in the TC and BC races, if their horses have any shot at all.

[Stillriledup]

As do Pletcher and Baffert now, so what's your point, that the only reason DWL won lots of races, not just big stakes races, was that he got lots of very good horses? Or, did he get lots of good horses because he was a very good trainer?

They go hand in hand don't they, the best get the best horses, and the best horses win lots of races. DWL has far fewer opportunities now than the others, so, even though he has a few good horses they aren't as good as some of the other barns. He still has to try to put his owners where they want to be, in the TC and BC races, if their horses have any shot at all.

They don't go hand in hand because being a good/great trainer isn't a requirement. The only requirement is that very rich people THINK you're a great trainer. That's really all that matters is what the people who are spending the money believe. If the Gene Klein's and Bob Lewises of the world believe Lukas to be a great trainer, what they think is all that matters, if he's not really that good of a trainer in real life, he can still win big races on numbers and financial power. Sure, it helps to be great, but its not a requirement.

[raybo]

DWL is an amazing legend in the game, no doubt about it. Also, nobody works harder than him or has more passion. The "arguments" are strictly from an entering standpoint. Can he "enter better" and not just toss any horse in the biggest and most important race he can find. Some say that because once in a while he strikes with a 40-1 in a big race, he should enter in the highest spot available without taking into consideration the horse as an individual and what that horse's needs might be. You can debate it either way. Esteemed poster John Hannibal Smith made a potent point that Lukas is a "brand" and he's the 'go to' guy for owners if you want to run in the Triple crown as well as other big races and that there's essentially a method to the madness of entering and being seen on big days.

Some have indicated that they 'all drop by the wayside eventually' so i take that as meaning horses aren't hurt in anyway by getting their brains beat in from superior competition and that horses don't 'know' if they win or if they're beaten by double digits 10 times in a row, that the horse runs its 'same race' without losing confidence or being 'ruined' by having to extend him or herself vs competition they can't beat.

At the end of the day though, Lukas isn't the only trainer who enters big longshots, doesn't 'rest' horses maybe like a John Sheriffs might do and for that, he's always going to have 'haters' and 'naysayers'. If you love the guy unconditionally though, he's not going to be entering badly or anything like that, i get hero warship.

Everyone needs a hero that they defend unconditionally, why not have a hero named Darrell Lukas.

Mr Z was "checked repeatedly" in the Derby, was 8.5 lengths back at the first call, and he is an early presser horse. His race was over early. But, even though he's finished 2nd twice and 3rd 4 times in his last 10 races, he doesn't deserve to be in the Preakness? All except one of those last 10 races were graded stakes races, 5 of them grade 1 races.

Just what does it take for you to think a horse deserves to be in the Preakness?

[Stillriledup]

Mr Z was "checked repeatedly" in the Derby, was 8.5 lengths back at the first call, and he is an early presser horse. His race was over early. But, even though he's finished 2nd twice and 3rd 4 times in his last 10 races, he doesn't deserve to be in the Preakness? All except one of those last 10 races were graded stakes races, 5 of them grade 1 races.

Just what does it take for you to think a horse deserves to be in the Preakness?

Because the field is only 8, it might not be the worst entry he's ever made. Z does have a shot to get a small check, 4th or 5th isn't out of the question.

Generally speaking though, there might be another race he can enter where he can actually win. This isn't the race. Its a hard game if you knowingly enter horses with 0 chance to win and are just looking for minor checks.

How about running Z in a race he can win, get an easy win at 3-5 and get his confidence up and THEN race in the Belmont or the Travers or some other big race? Its not like there will be a shortage of million dollar races for him to run in this year, why the Preakness? Why not freshen him up or get an easier spot for a confidence builder and THEN if he wins impressively, go into the Belmont or Travers or Haskell or something like that?

[ronsmac]

Its all conjecture because you don't know how her health would have remained running on tracks and shipping all around the country.She was healthy and won the Apple Blossom that year.

[Stillriledup]

She was healthy and won the Apple Blossom that year.

My point was that we don't know what would have happened to her had she been raced hard, danced a lot more dances, raced on a lot more tracks, shipped all around the land, etc.

[ronsmac]

My point was that we don't know what would have happened to her had she been raced hard, danced a lot more dances, raced on a lot more tracks, shipped all around the land, etc.I have no idea what your point is, the Apple Blossom was going to be 5 mil but Rachel didn't show because Zardana beat her at FG. When she didn't show the purse was reduced to it's normal level.

[Fager Fan]

You think Zenyatta would have had the career she had if this guy was training her and managing her career and calling the shots from day 1?

:D

GREAT POST.

Well, she would've run against males more often. And run on dirt, and on the East coast. Her legacy may've been far greater than it currently is, even if there may've been more losses on her resume.

[Fager Fan]

They don't go hand in hand because being a good/great trainer isn't a requirement. The only requirement is that very rich people THINK you're a great trainer. That's really all that matters is what the people who are spending the money believe. If the Gene Klein's and Bob Lewises of the world believe Lukas to be a great trainer, what they think is all that matters, if he's not really that good of a trainer in real life, he can still win big races on numbers and financial power. Sure, it helps to be great, but its not a requirement.

DWL is/was one of the sport's greatest trainers, and arguably the greatest ever, and for you to argue otherwise is just absurd.

[raybo]

Because the field is only 8, it might not be the worst entry he's ever made. Z does have a shot to get a small check, 4th or 5th isn't out of the question.

Generally speaking though, there might be another race he can enter where he can actually win. This isn't the race. Its a hard game if you knowingly enter horses with 0 chance to win and are just looking for minor checks.

How about running Z in a race he can win, get an easy win at 3-5 and get his confidence up and THEN race in the Belmont or the Travers or some other big race? Its not like there will be a shortage of million dollar races for him to run in this year, why the Preakness? Why not freshen him up or get an easier spot for a confidence builder and THEN if he wins impressively, go into the Belmont or Travers or Haskell or something like that?

You're assuming Mr Z needs a freshening up, and that his confidence is down. How could you possibly know that? You will never know if you can win the Preakness unless you run in it.

[Stillriledup]

You're assuming Mr Z needs a freshening up, and that his confidence is down. How could you possibly know that? You will never know if you can win the Preakness unless you run in it.

Read the last post.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1820457#post1820457

[raybo]

Read the last post.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1820457#post1820457

I was discussing with Raybo in the Mr Z thread about "Freshening and confidence" and he said how do i know Mr Z needs a freshening and or confidence.

I can't speak for Raybo and some others in that thread, but i'll ask this...do horses who get put in over their heads and finish up the track 'lose confidence' or do horses just run their best race and all of that 'confidence' talk is just poppycock.

Thanks.

You didn't read my post about Mr Z's Derby trip did you? His race was over early, that has nothing to do with his confidence, or form, or ability to run in the Preakness.

[Robert Fischer]

last i checked(3pm) we were wondering whether Lukas ever knew what he was doing in his prime...

now(6hrs later, 9pm) we are debating Mr. Z's 'confidence level'?

really?

you guys are crazier than me, and that's saying something.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Magic # at 466, don't get in the way of the Big Hoss.

[Stillriledup]

You didn't read my post about Mr Z's Derby trip did you? His race was over early, that has nothing to do with his confidence, or form, or ability to run in the Preakness.

I dont know, maybe his race was over early because he was too slow to keep up.

[horses4courses]

last i checked(3pm) we were wondering whether Lukas ever knew what he was doing in his prime...

now(6hrs later, 9pm) we are debating Mr. Z's 'confidence level'?

really?

you guys are crazier than me, and that's saying something.

I'm waiting to hear what the wind gurus think,
and whether, or not, flatulence counts in running. :eek:

[raybo]

last i checked(3pm) we were wondering whether Lukas ever knew what he was doing in his prime...

now(6hrs later, 9pm) we are debating Mr. Z's 'confidence level'?

really?

you guys are crazier than me, and that's saying something.

The debate about Mr Z's fitness for the Preakness speaks directly to DWL's abilities as a trainer. SRU thinks that Mr Z needs a rest and needs to be put in some pushover race in order to get his confidence back. And, he think's DWL doesn't know what he is doing, because he wants Mr Z to run in the Preakness, when he should rest him and run him as a 4/5 favorite in an easy race.

[Stillriledup]

The debate about Mr Z's fitness for the Preakness speaks directly to DWL's abilities as a trainer. SRU thinks that Mr Z needs a rest and needs to be put in some pushover race in order to get his confidence back. And, he think's DWL doesn't know what he is doing, because he wants Mr Z to run in the Preakness, when he should rest him and run him as a 4/5 favorite in an easy race.

DWLs training and entering speak for themselves, it is what it is, if it was me, i would put horses where they could win, i wouldn't want my valuable horse getting his head handed to him while coming up with excuses, i'd run him where he belonged, but that's just me apparently.

[raybo]

I dont know, maybe his race was over early because he was too slow to keep up.

Well, if you do not know that he was bumped and checked repeatedly, and was lengths behind by the 1st call, and is an early presser type, whose race is close to the lead, then you have no idea if that race should be thrown out or not. And, if you don't know that, then you have no way of knowing if the horse should take a break, or can't handle G1 competition, or anything else about the horse's fitness for the Preakness. What exactly, do you know about Mr Z or about DW Lukas that has any bearing on this race?

[Robert Fischer]

I'm waiting to hear what the wind gurus think,
and whether, or not, flatulence counts in running. :eek:

wouldn't want to be drafting behind flatulence

[Stillriledup]

Well, if you do not know that he was bumped and checked repeatedly, and was lengths behind by the 1st call, and is an early presser type, whose race is close to the lead, then you have no idea if that race should be thrown out or not. And, if you don't know that, then you have no way of knowing if the horse should take a break, or can't handle G1 competition, or anything else about the horse's fitness for the Preakness. What exactly, do you know about Mr Z or about DW Lukas that has any bearing on this race?

I know nothing. Go ahead and Bet Mr Z in the Preakness, seems like you think he's got a big shot. Good luck.

[Donttellmeshowme]

DWLs training and entering speak for themselves, it is what it is, if it was me, i would put horses where they could win, i wouldn't want my valuable horse getting his head handed to him while coming up with excuses, i'd run him where he belonged, but that's just me apparently.





Bingo we have another winner....

[Stillriledup]

Bingo we have another winner....

If i only had a dime for everytime i posted something smart...

(i could probably afford one straight 10 cent super!) :D

[raybo]

I know nothing. Go ahead and Bet Mr Z in the Preakness, seems like you think he's got a big shot. Good luck.

This has nothing to do with me, or you, or anyone else, betting or not betting on Mr Z, it has to do with whether or not he deserves to be in the Preakness (of course he does). It also has to do with whether or not Lukas has placed him in a race he can compete in (even you will not know that until the race is run, and maybe not even then).

[Stillriledup]

This has nothing to do with me, or you, or anyone else, betting or not betting on Mr Z, it has to do with whether or not he deserves to be in the Preakness (of course he does). It also has to do with whether or not Lukas has placed him in a race he can compete in (even you will not know that until the race is run, and maybe not even then).

Mr Z has talent, he's a pretty good horse in real life, i just know that i would be managing him much differently. He's been clobbered in his last 3, i don't know why you would put a horse like that in the best 3yo race if you're doing right by the horse. There are plenty of good spots for him to race for big money, like i said, the Belmont, Travers, haskell, Breeders Cup, etc. But if you don't 'get him right' none of that is going to happen.

[PaceAdvantage]

Man, with all this claptrap, one would think SRU would be absolutely apoplectic about the entering of Tale of Verve in this race...then again, that horse is trained by a Lukas disciple.

[PaceAdvantage]

And I like how SRU completely ignores the very valid point of all the money Maktoum has spent at the sales, and he's STILL Derby-less.

If SRU was right about the reason for Lukas' success, surely the good Sheikh would have won that race by now... :lol:

[raybo]

Mr Z has talent, he's a pretty good horse in real life, i just know that i would be managing him much differently. He's been clobbered in his last 3, i don't know why you would put a horse like that in the best 3yo race if you're doing right by the horse. There are plenty of good spots for him to race for big money, like i said, the Belmont, Travers, haskell, Breeders Cup, etc. But if you don't 'get him right' none of that is going to happen.

Well, I have no idea of your credentials as a trainer, but Lukas says he "has him right" and he's in the best condition he has ever been in, so I'll take his word over yours, if that's ok with you.

[PaceAdvantage]

Mr. Z is not without his charm here, but I think he finishes 6th. 20-1 isn't a terrible price on him though, all things considered...

I view Divining Rod and Mr. Z as equal in ability...one is 12/1 on the morning line and the other is 20/1.

Explain that one.

[ronsmac]

Imagine how much she could have won if she had been good enough to beat Blame!
It didn't appear that she loved that track, never really striding out. A couple of jocks said the track was like peanut butter earlier in the card. It never truly dried out that day. Plus I think she was a little better the year before.

[Stillriledup]

Well, I have no idea of your credentials as a trainer, but Lukas says he "has him right" and he's in the best condition he has ever been in, so I'll take his word over yours, if that's ok with you.

:lol:

I laughed so hard my eyes started to water. Thanks, felt good!!!

[Stillriledup]

Mr. Z is not without his charm here, but I think he finishes 6th. 20-1 isn't a terrible price on him though, all things considered...

I view Divining Rod and Mr. Z as equal in ability...one is 12/1 on the morning line and the other is 20/1.

Explain that one.

Coming off a 98 Beyer win. Mr Z is a "known quantity" as he's raced and lost to the top 3 contenders in here, where Divining Rod is an "unknown" of sorts, 3rd time lasix showing like he might be a 'new horse'.

No proof that Z isn't even a far superior horse to DR, i think the odds are just that Z's form is more known.

[Stillriledup]

Mr. Z is not without his charm here, but I think he finishes 6th. 20-1 isn't a terrible price on him though, all things considered...

I view Divining Rod and Mr. Z as equal in ability...one is 12/1 on the morning line and the other is 20/1.

Explain that one.

Diving Rod beat Danzig Moon by 5 in the Tampa Bay race (finishing 3rd n 4th) and AP beat Danzig Moon by 6 in the Derby.

For what its worth.

[Robert Fischer]

I have Mr. Z's 'big race' good enough to be in contention for a minor award in pretty much any 3yo field.

Just not sure if he's capable of running back to those big races again.


Some of my form for him:

Breeders Cup Juvenile - I had him in the top 3 performances.
Delta Jackpot - I had him a much-the-best 2nd. (meaning he performed better than the winner).
LA Futurity - Too flawed to judge, bad effort. He ran well vs. two G1 horses, but he was fortunate that Mike Smith used Firing Line as a buffer in a heads-up piece of riding. He looked completely finished as a stakes horse.
Smarty Jones - in an expected extension of the LAFUT., he blew up again in a flawed effort.
Southwest Stakes - Complete surprise, he turned it around and unexpectedly put in the best performance of the Southwest.
Louisiana Derby - blew up again in a horrible flawed performance.
Arkansas Derby - very mediocre 3rd
Kentucky Derby - troubled trip

[nijinski]

I think Divining Rod is the fresh horse that's coming around and
will be at the track he's run well on .
Those odds may also reflect the owners who may have not had a
a Preakness runner since their loss of Barbaro . Now entering DR they
must be high on him . He has a tough job here with these but I'd
like to see him hit the board .

[Robert Fischer]

I think Divining Rod is the fresh horse that's coming around and
will be at the track he's run well on .
Those odds may also reflect the owners who may have not had a
a Preakness runner since their loss of Barbaro . Now entering DR they
must be high on him . He has a tough job here with these but I'd
like to see him hit the board .

I wrote-off Divining Rod after his dream trip in the Sam F. Davis.
Was wrong about that. He's proven to be a solid horse. His recent form is strong. Draws a top jockey. Strong local trainer, and an Owner that is easy to root for.

Certainly live.

Normally I'd have Danzig Moon slightly ahead, but I think both of these are good, live contenders here.

They'll likely need a very good trip to make up what looks like a class edge, but they are in the mix, and there's been bigger surprises.

[castaway01]

Mr. Z is not without his charm here, but I think he finishes 6th. 20-1 isn't a terrible price on him though, all things considered...

I view Divining Rod and Mr. Z as equal in ability...one is 12/1 on the morning line and the other is 20/1.

Explain that one.

With Divining Rod being the Jacksons' first Preakness horse since Barbaro, I'd expect some human interest stories on the Jacksons returning to the site of their horse's breakdown. There will probably be some extra money on the horse from casual fans who remember Barbaro and think it's a sad/interesting story. Now on a normal day this would never be a consideration, but I actually think that he'll get bet a bit for that reason.

[cj]

It didn't appear that she loved that track, never really striding out. A couple of jocks said the track was like peanut butter earlier in the card. It never truly dried out that day. Plus I think she was a little better the year before.

I think your last sentence is the key. I never buy the track excuse, particularly coming from riders. The horses all raced over the same surface. She lost by a nose. If you believe riders, if she liked the track, she was going to win by 10.

She always lagged back and made a huge run. The one time she didn't she barely won and ran her worst race by far. I didn't see anything really any different against Blame other than she didn't get there. She impressed me more in that defeat than she did in any of her wins, save the Classic she won on synthetic.

[cj]

Mr. Z is not without his charm here, but I think he finishes 6th. 20-1 isn't a terrible price on him though, all things considered...

I view Divining Rod and Mr. Z as equal in ability...one is 12/1 on the morning line and the other is 20/1.

Explain that one.

I think this is exactly right.

[cnollfan]

Besides recently sold Mr. Z, how many other horses does Zayat have under Lukas?

This is how I'm reading between the lines: Mr. Z was under orders in the Derby to stay out of American Pharoah's way. This annoyed Lukas as it took Mr. Z out of his game. Lukas wants Mr. Z to run free in the Preakness. Furthermore, if an opportunity to keep AP pinned on the rail develops, Mr. Z will do it (until he drifts out as per usual).

The more horses Zayat still has with Lukas, the less likely this theory holds water.

[ronsmac]

I think your last sentence is the key. I never buy the track excuse, particularly coming from riders. The horses all raced over the same surface. She lost by a nose. If you believe riders, if she liked the track, she was going to win by 10.

She always lagged back and made a huge run. The one time she didn't she barely won and ran her worst race by far. I didn't see anything really any different against Blame other than she didn't get there. She impressed me more in that defeat than she did in any of her wins, save the Classic she won on synthetic.I'm not a rider but I didn't like her stride in the stretch compared to other races. Blame was gonna be tough under any circumstances. It was still a very good race for both horses.

[Robert Fischer]

Besides recently sold Mr. Z, how many other horses does Zayat have under Lukas?

This is how I'm reading between the lines: Mr. Z was under orders in the Derby to stay out of American Pharoah's way. This annoyed Lukas as it took Mr. Z out of his game. Lukas wants Mr. Z to run free in the Preakness. Furthermore, if an opportunity to keep AP pinned on the rail develops, Mr. Z will do it (until he drifts out as per usual).

The more horses Zayat still has with Lukas, the less likely this theory holds water.

Your thinking here is interesting and important.

There are many of these relationships.
There are explicit instructions, there are implied understadings, and more

Sometimes trainers or owners have patterns regarding these relationships.

It's not always straight forward.

And if there was an understanding or instruction that Mr Z was going to act as a body-guard for American Pharoah in the Derby(which seems reasonable to me), is that relationship over now?
Is there an understanding involved in the sale that he'll stay out of his way/ even help in the Preakness/triple-crown-bid?
Is the Preakness a totally clean slate?
Is there 'bad blood'.

lots of guesswork and conjecture... all but the most obvious cases are hard for me to factor:ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Your thinking here is interesting and important.

There are many of these relationships.
There are explicit instructions, there are implied understadings, and more

Sometimes trainers or owners have patterns regarding these relationships.

It's not always straight forward.

And if there was an understanding or instruction that Mr Z was going to act as a body-guard for American Pharoah in the Derby(which seems reasonable to me), is that relationship over now?
Is there an understanding involved in the sale that he'll stay out of his way/ even help in the Preakness/triple-crown-bid?
Is the Preakness a totally clean slate?
Is there 'bad blood'.

lots of guesswork and conjecture... all but the most obvious cases are hard for me to factor:ThmbUp:

Good post, and you're right, its a lot of "understood" winks and nods here.

Its kind of like how some people don't understand that in order for pro sports leagues to 'tweak' results, they don't have to verbally instruct the refs to do this and do that....they just have to hire human beings who are smart and who 'get it'. It doesn't take a genius to know that a Lakers-Knicks NBA finals will get more 'eyeballs' watching than a Utah-Charlotte finals. Its simple math, nobody need to instruct anyone of this fact, just a human being who's breathing and functioning knows this and since most employees want to help out their bosses and help their companies maximize revenues, nobody really needs to say anything to anyone.

[PaceAdvantage]

As usual, I have to ask...what the hell are you talking about?

[raybo]

I have Mr. Z's 'big race' good enough to be in contention for a minor award in pretty much any 3yo field.

Just not sure if he's capable of running back to those big races again.


Some of my form for him:

Breeders Cup Juvenile - I had him in the top 3 performances.
Delta Jackpot - I had him a much-the-best 2nd. (meaning he performed better than the winner).
LA Futurity - Too flawed to judge, bad effort. He ran well vs. two G1 horses, but he was fortunate that Mike Smith used Firing Line as a buffer in a heads-up piece of riding. He looked completely finished as a stakes horse.
Smarty Jones - in an expected extension of the LAFUT., he blew up again in a flawed effort.
Southwest Stakes - Complete surprise, he turned it around and unexpectedly put in the best performance of the Southwest.
Louisiana Derby - blew up again in a horrible flawed performance.
Arkansas Derby - very mediocre 3rd
Kentucky Derby - troubled trip

Mr Z has had some significant issues in his career thus far, but he has run well against Firing Line who is a definite threat to win this one, so if the issues are gone, and he really is in his best form, he could get in the money for sure.

[Fager Fan]

As usual, I have to ask...what the hell are you talking about?

;)

[Stillriledup]

;)

When i publish SRU for dummies, PA will be the first to get a copy. :D

[raybo]

As usual, I have to ask...what the hell are you talking about?

He's saying that there may have been an agreement between the owner of AP and the new owner of Mr Z, regardng what Mr Z will be allowed to do and what he won't be allowed to do, what he 'will' do and what he 'won't' do. Collusion in other words! :rolleyes:

The only collusion I might accept would be that DWL may have expressed what he knows about Mr Z to that horse's new owner, and that was enough for him to buy the horse and run him in the Preakness. I would be shocked if he cares a lick about AP or his chances in the Preakness or of winning the TC, and would actually help AP win the race, by blocking or running amok early in order to create a blistering pace with Dortmund or others which might favor an off the lead AP trip.

[raybo]

Mr Z --------------- Lukas -- Calumet
American Pharoh - Baffert - Zayat

How does collusion come about between these trainers and owners? Two different owners and trainers. How does Calumet (or Lukas) become involved in any collusion regarding the other horse? Zayat tells Calumet that they can't get in the way of AP or no sale? Heck, he could say "OK", let the sale go through, then try his best to beat AP. What's Zayat going to do, announce the agreement of collusion to the public? No, he's going to tell himself he made a supposed deal to help AP win the race, and possibly the TC, and then got reneged on. Hilarious!:lol:

[Fager Fan]

He's saying that there may have been an agreement between the owner of AP and the new owner of Mr Z, regardng what Mr Z will be allowed to do and what he won't be allowed to do, what he 'will' do and what he 'won't' do. Collusion in other words! :rolleyes:

The only collusion I might accept would be that DWL may have expressed what he knows about Mr Z to that horse's new owner, and that was enough for him to buy the horse and run him in the Preakness. I would be shocked if he cares a lick about AP or his chances in the Preakness or of winning the TC, and would actually help AP win the race, by blocking or running amok early in order to create a blistering pace with Dortmund or others which might favor an off the lead AP trip.

We know what he was getting it. It was just so absurd it deserved that kind of response.

Not only would DWL not run the horse to help AP, but the new owner sure didn't pay a pretty penny for the horse or put up 25 grand to help AP. I really don't mean to offend anyone but c'mon, use a little common sense.

Personally, I hope Mr Z puts a monkey wrench into AP's run and costs him the race. That'd be amusing on so many levels, so go Z!

[Robert Fischer]

Yes, gentlemen, and that's why I say;

lots of guesswork and conjecture... all but the most obvious cases are hard for me to factor:ThmbUp:

Makes for interesting discussion, but often not possible to factor much less relevant. Hard enough to figure out the horses :cool:.

[Stillriledup]

He's saying that there may have been an agreement between the owner of AP and the new owner of Mr Z, regardng what Mr Z will be allowed to do and what he won't be allowed to do, what he 'will' do and what he 'won't' do. Collusion in other words! :rolleyes:

The only collusion I might accept would be that DWL may have expressed what he knows about Mr Z to that horse's new owner, and that was enough for him to buy the horse and run him in the Preakness. I would be shocked if he cares a lick about AP or his chances in the Preakness or of winning the TC, and would actually help AP win the race, by blocking or running amok early in order to create a blistering pace with Dortmund or others which might favor an off the lead AP trip.

Im not sure if you're talking about me or not, but what you just wrote is completely made up and has nothing at all with with i'm talking about. Maybe you're responding to Cnollfan?

[Robert Fischer]

the run to the first turn should tell us something.


In the derby Mr. Z was a fullback and AP was the halfback, and most expected that.
Easy to see Vazquez break diagonally in and then peek back out @ about 8,9 seconds into the race.

If we see Z breaking out diagonally forcing Firing Line wide, then we mutter n mumble the 'c-word' :blush: .

If we see Z run his race, we figure 'clean-slate'.

If we see Z pin the champ to the rail, then we say 'bad blood'.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Check out Super Saks trained by Lukas. Still eligible for NW-2 Allowance and he keeps running her in Grade 3's.


What once worked 20 yrs ago is not working for him now. He cant adapt. I think the game is passing him up. 6 wins in 109 starts for 2015

[Robert Fischer]

Check out Super Saks trained by Lukas. Still eligible for NW-2 Allowance and he keeps running her in Grade 3's.


What once worked 20 yrs ago is not working for him now. He cant adapt. I think the game is passing him up. 6 wins in 109 starts for 2015

http://wdrb.images.worldnow.com/images/7595025_G.jpg


He's 79 years old and he's had a better 2015 than I have.
He's got stakes horses, he's got good clientele, he's making a good living doing what he loves, and people are talking about him the night before he has a Preakness horse.

He could probably claim old 9 yo horses and drop them 2+ classes and win at 20% or whatever, but that's not his M.O.

You have every right to criticize him, and you could even be right, and I could be way off, - but from my perspective he's impressive. I have a lot of respect for him right now.

[raybo]

http://wdrb.images.worldnow.com/images/7595025_G.jpg


He's 79 years old and he's had a better 2015 than I have.
He's got stakes horses, he's got good clientele, he's making a good living doing what he loves, and people are talking about him the night before he has a Preakness horse.

He could probably claim old 9 yo horses and drop them 2+ classes and win at 20% or whatever, but that's not his M.O.

You have every right to criticize him, and you could even be right, and I could be way off, - but from my perspective he's impressive. I have a lot of respect for him right now.

I agree! Being successful in this game is not always about how many wins you have, it's about whether or not you're making money. I don't really follow trainer stats, so I don't know how much money he has helped his owners make, or if they are making money at all, but if they are still using him he must either be making them money or they don't care if they lose money or not.

[Stillriledup]

I agree! Being successful in this game is not always about how many wins you have, it's about whether or not you're making money. I don't really follow trainer stats, so I don't know how much money he has helped his owners make, or if they are making money at all, but if they are still using him he must either be making them money or they don't care if they lose money or not.

So if you make money, you're successful and if you lose money (as a trainer) you're still successful as long as the people who lose the money don't really care if they lose it or not?

Success in this game to me, for a trainer isn't about wins and losses and it isn't about money.....its about caring deeply for the animals and always doing right by them. Putting the horse first.

[raybo]

So if you make money, you're successful and if you lose money (as a trainer) you're still successful as long as the people who lose the money don't really care if they lose it or not?

Success in this game to me, for a trainer isn't about wins and losses and it isn't about money.....its about caring deeply for the animals and always doing right by them. Putting the horse first.

SRU, you continue to amaze, and not in a good way. That is not what I said. I never said you could be successful in this game if you lost money, did I? I could not care less what your definition of "successful" is. To me, if you make something your livelihood, your only source of income, you must make money in order to exist. Obviously Lukas has made enough money to exist, apparently quite well. So, if that is the case then where did that money come from if not from his share of the purses his horses have earned?

Compared to other trainers, what is the percentage of horses he has trained that are not well cared for, and that break down as a result, versus those others trainers? if you don't know that then you really have no basis for your claims against him, do you?

[Stillriledup]

SRU, you continue to amaze, and not in a good way. That is not what I said. I never said you could be successful in this game if you lost money, did I? I could not care less what your definition of "successful" is. To me, if you make something your livelihood, your only source of income, you must make money in order to exist. Obviously Lukas has made enough money to exist, apparently quite well. So, if that is the case then where did that money come from if not from his share of the purses his horses have earned?

Compared to other trainers, what is the percentage of horses he has trained that are not well cared for, and that break down as a result, versus those others trainers? if you don't know that then you really have no basis for your claims against him, do you?

I'm not making any "claims" against him. You were the one who said that money is all that matters to determine success. But then you said if you LOSE money, its ok to lose the money as long as the owners don't need the money.

Nobody is arguing that Lukas himself is a success, he's made a LOT of money in this game, the only minor disagreements some are having in this thread is whether or not Lukas can "enter better".

[raybo]

I'm not making any "claims" against him. You were the one who said that money is all that matters to determine success. But then you said if you LOSE money, its ok to lose the money as long as the owners don't need the money.

Nobody is arguing that Lukas himself is a success, he's made a LOT of money in this game, the only minor disagreements some are having in this thread is whether or not Lukas can "enter better".

Where did I say that "it's ok to lose money as long as the owners don't need the money"? What I said was that if the owners keep using Lukas, either Lukas is making the trainers money, or they just don't care if they lose money. That's a big difference from what you said I stated. Don't twist my words to make them what you need in order to continue arguing.

Whether or not Lukas can "enter better" is your big thing, not mine. He has stated himself that he's always entered horses in races that others have said "don't belong", and yet he apparently has done that successfully. As I said before, wins are not the whole picture, you can make money without ever winning a race. 2nd, 3rd, 4th can make you money, and for most owners that is what they want a horse to do, make money, whether that is from wins or lower placings.

You seem to be obsessive about horses winning most of their races, and you will come across those, but many owners and trainers make a good living with their horses without winning most of their races. I have not said that Mr Z will, or even probably, win the Preakness, all I have said was that the horse deserves to be in it, and could make some money. That's enough for me, if I'm considering whether or not a horse doesn't deserve to be in a race, and can or cannot compete well. I never stated that Mr Z would be a win bet for me, because he won't be, but he could well finish on the ticket somewhere. But, apparently that's not good enough for you, if a horse isn't a top contender for the win, you think he doesn't belong in the race and his trainer shouldn't have entered him in that race, but rather wait for an easy race. Easy is just that, easy. Nobody said things should be easy, for us humans or race horses.

[Stillriledup]

Where did I say that "it's ok to lose money as long as the owners don't need the money"? What I said was that if the owners keep using Lukas, either Lukas is making the trainers money, or they just don't care if they lose money. That's a big difference from what you said I stated. Don't twist my words to make them what you need in order to continue arguing.

Whether or not Lukas can "enter better" is your big thing, not mine. He has stated himself that he's always entered horses in races that others have said "don't belong", and yet he apparently has done that successfully. As I said before, wins are not the whole picture, you can make money without ever winning a race. 2nd, 3rd, 4th can make you money, and for most owners that is what they want a horse to do, make money, whether that is from wins or lower placings.

You seem to be obsessive about horses winning most of their races, and you will come across those, but many owners and trainers make a good living with their horses without winning most of their races. I have not said that Mr Z will, or even probably, win the Preakness, all I have said was that the horse deserves to be in it, and could make some money. That's enough for me, if I'm considering whether or not a horse doesn't deserve to be in a race, and can or cannot compete well. I never stated that Mr Z would be a win bet for me, because he won't be, but he could well finish on the ticket somewhere. But, apparently that's not good enough for you, if a horse isn't a top contender for the win, you think he doesn't belong in the race and his trainer shouldn't have entered him in that race, but rather wait for an easy race. Easy is just that, easy. Nobody said things should be easy, for us humans or race horses.

Takes a twister to know a twister. You're the king at Pace Advantage of twisting words and making things up, so i'm pretty sure you would be able to correctly recognize that when it really happens. You did imply that if you make money you are successful and you also implied that even if Lukases owners are losing money (thus branding them unsuccessful) its ok as long as they don't need the money.

You also never addressed Chad or Ruffian's posts in the Trainer thread in the handicapping section about how horses are not machines and they do lose confidence, how do i know if MR Z is one of the ones who lost confidence? I don't know, maybe he's a rare bird to has a steel trap for a memory, but in general, if you are entering over your head, many horses will lose confidence and that could hurt the horse going forward. Its not 'putting the horse first' in my book.

[raybo]

Takes a twister to know a twister. You're the king at Pace Advantage of twisting words and making things up, so i'm pretty sure you would be able to correctly recognize that when it really happens. You did imply that if you make money you are successful and you also implied that even if Lukases owners are losing money (thus branding them unsuccessful) its ok as long as they don't need the money.

You also never addressed Chad or Ruffian's posts in the Trainer thread in the handicapping section about how horses are not machines and they do lose confidence, how do i know if MR Z is one of the ones who lost confidence? I don't know, maybe he's a rare bird to has a steel trap for a memory, but in general, if you are entering over your head, many horses will lose confidence and that could hurt the horse going forward. Its not 'putting the horse first' in my book.

Really? Does anyone else think this way about my posts?

If so, I'll gladly stop posting because I never want to be thought of that way. :ThmbUp:

[Donttellmeshowme]

MR Z runs last I think. Pathetic placement of the horse pathetic training if the horse.

[Stillriledup]

MR Z runs last I think. Pathetic placement of the horse pathetic training if the horse.

he actually got 5th, so it was a rousing success, the guy got a check while the horse getting his bridle jerked again.

In retrospect, Mr z is probably a better horse than the runner up in real life and is probably supposed to be able to beat a horse like that to the wire....but if you dance too many outclassed dances, the horse loses his nerve (or verve in this case) and just chucks it. A confident MR z, a horse who could have won some races if he was pointed for realistic spots might have been a confident horse coming into Pimlico, off a win, but he's been beaten up so much mentally, he's getting used to losing and it showed today. But, im sure he will be there at the Belmont.

[ArlJim78]

actually he only beat one horse who wasn't eased.

[cj]

he actually got 5th, so it was a rousing success, the guy got a check while the horse getting his bridle jerked again.

In retrospect, Mr z is probably a better horse than the runner up in real life and is probably supposed to be able to beat a horse like that to the wire....but if you dance too many outclassed dances, the horse loses his nerve (or verve in this case) and just chucks it. A confident MR z, a horse who could have won some races if he was pointed for realistic spots might have been a confident horse coming into Pimlico, off a win, but he's been beaten up so much mentally, he's getting used to losing and it showed today. But, im sure he will be there at the Belmont.

He ran very fast fractions against the best horse in the country, of course he backed out. He's a sturdy horse, he'll be fine.

[Robert Fischer]

MR Z runs last I think. Pathetic placement of the horse pathetic training if the horse.

He got 45K back for the race, and his owners got to dance in the big dance.

It was a success.

You seem to have a bias on this issue, and if I'm reading your comments correctly it is affecting your better judgment.

[raybo]

He got 45K back for the race, and his owners got to dance in the big dance.

It was a success.

You seem to have a bias on this issue, and if I'm reading your comments correctly it is affecting your better judgment.

Yup, the owner got paid and got to run in a TC race. I thought he ran well until the inevitable fade by everyone except AP. That pace was very quick today and a few looked very uncomfortable running in that slop.

[nijinski]

He got 45K back for the race, and his owners got to dance in the big dance.

It was a success.

You seem to have a bias on this issue, and if I'm reading your comments correctly it is affecting your better judgment.

I don't agree that was a success . Calumet is looking for a stallion prospect in their purchase . I think they were counting on a wake up all his
problems were supposed to be fixed . He needs a freshening , hope he's
not going to Belmont .

[nijinski]

[QUOTE=raybo]Yup, the owner got paid and got to run in a TC race. I thought he ran well until the inevitable fade by everyone except AP. That pace was very quick today and a few looked very uncomfortable running in that slop.[/QUOTEre
He's run game in the slop before .

[ArlJim78]

I don't agree that was a success . Calumet is looking for a stallion prospect in their purchase . I think they were counting on a wake up all his
problems were supposed to be fixed . He needs a freshening , hope he's
not going to Belmont .
In a shocking development, Lukas says Mr. Z will NOT run in the Belmont.

[nijinski]

In a shocking development, Lukas says Mr. Z will NOT run in the Belmont.

Unless he preps well in Pa :lol:

[menifee]

In a shocking development, Lukas says Mr. Z will NOT run in the Belmont.

They are going to run him in the Woody Stephens and then bring him right back in the Met Mile.

[raybo]

[QUOTE=raybo]Yup, the owner got paid and got to run in a TC race. I thought he ran well until the inevitable fade by everyone except AP. That pace was very quick today and a few looked very uncomfortable running in that slop.[/QUOTEre
He's run game in the slop before .

I didn't say Mr Z faded because of the slop, I said "a few looked very uncomfortable running in the slop". I thought Mr Z ran fine, but the pace was too hot for everyone.

Hope he runs in the Belmont too.

[nijinski]

[QUOTE=nijinski]

I didn't say Mr Z faded because of the slop, I said "a few looked very uncomfortable running in the slop". I thought Mr Z ran fine, but the pace was too hot for everyone.

Hope he runs in the Belmont too.

Got it !

[ArlJim78]

“The adverse conditions likely affected seven of eight horses. It obviously didn’t bother the winner. My horse ran very well. He was well-placed and I thought he actually might finish second." DWL

[raybo]

“The adverse conditions likely affected seven of eight horses. It obviously didn’t bother the winner. My horse ran very well. He was well-placed and I thought he actually might finish second." DWL

Sounds good to me. I thought his best chance was to get out of the gate well and make the front. He did that, but with the pace being so fast there wasn't much chance of his remaining up there with AP. He didn't stop or break down as some thought he would, nor did he seem to lack confidence, he ran with AP for quite a while today. Very solid horse.

[Stillriledup]

Sounds good to me. I thought his best chance was to get out of the gate well and make the front. He did that, but with the pace being so fast there wasn't much chance of his remaining up there with AP. He didn't stop or break down as some thought he would, nor did he seem to lack confidence, he ran with AP for quite a while today. Very solid horse.

This is what i was talking about in post 233. You said "some thought he would break down". Nobody thought he would break down, nobody here on this site said that or even implied it, why would you type that when its not true?

[ArlJim78]

Sounds good to me. I thought his best chance was to get out of the gate well and make the front. He did that, but with the pace being so fast there wasn't much chance of his remaining up there with AP. He didn't stop or break down as some thought he would, nor did he seem to lack confidence, he ran with AP for quite a while today. Very solid horse.
I've never said the horse would break down or stop, only that his trainer has lost his grip on reality. Yes the horse has speed and talent. At this point though, despite what the trainer thinks, he's not particularly suitable for GR1 routes.