Newmarket (NEU)

[badcompany]

One of my stock picks in the "Make $$ in 2014" thread was Newmarket. I had started buying the stock at $280 and have continued to add to my position.



bad company:

.25 CERN @ 55.74 64.67 16.02%
.25 NEU @ 334.15 403.53 20.76%
.25 PPG @ 189.66 231.15 21.88%
.25 MTD @ 242.59 302.46 24.68%


The company makes fuel additives. At first, this might cause some concern considering the recent crash of oil prices. However, demand for Newmarket's products is not based on the price of oil, but on miles driven. So, the drop actually helps, as evidenced by the recent performance of the stock.

I can't guarantee this is the best entry point, but the stock made an all time high this past Friday.

Here's a 10 year chart and a comparison to a little company named Apple. This is an investment, not a trade.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/6be167db46de4328468b542976390294_zps8d35f1a0.jpg

[badcompany]

YTD performance vs S&P.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/73ce2e706176c37e8935fd16d3babc34_zps20b63f37.jpg


vs Apple

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/c54f06e4216c07b71827af8af7af41d9_zps29f51298.jpg

[badcompany]

Showing speed in 2015:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/49972819-82CD-42BE-9BD0-EABECB4FE16F_zpstg6dvt2v.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/49972819-82CD-42BE-9BD0-EABECB4FE16F_zpstg6dvt2v.png.html)

[badcompany]

Nice earnings bump. Maybe 425 was the best entry point.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/bcefb53c2ea8a691156d5c81b26997e6_zpsda1bc9d5.jpg

[reckless]

Nice going with NEU, badcompany.

Continued good fortune.

[badcompany]

Nice going with NEU, badcompany.

Continued good fortune.

Thanks.

The reason I gave the stock out at that time is because it did very well early in the year in 2014, then flattened out.

It's a lot easier to hang in there during flat periods when you already have some profits.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/46500005f77d24faf36a7ac2752271ce_zpsa95ecf76.jpg

[reckless]

Thanks.

The reason I gave the stock out at that time is because it did very well early in the year in 2014, then flattened out.

It's a lot easier to hang in there during flat periods when you already have some profits.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/46500005f77d24faf36a7ac2752271ce_zpsa95ecf76.jpg

NEU should earn about $25 / share in free cash flow in 2015.

The company's growth rate is about 30% and its FCF return on total capital is almost 40%

The metrics --as I do them-- are sensational!

I missed this one last year, badcompany, even though you told the world to buy it. Good call, then and now.

But, for me to nibble on it -- again, this is just me and how I do things -- I need a pull back to about $360-375.

At $375 that comes to 15 times FCF, my maximum metric for a purchase. At $360 and less, I'll have a little more cushion to sleep better :)

Best of luck.

[badcompany]

Not sure if you'll ever see that $360 on NEU, Reckless, but, you never know.


Another one of my 2014 stocks which has gotten off to a good start in 2015 is Cerner.

CERN

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/b3b88bd7d3cc39cd72c00c62c225ef19_zps0710110e.jpg

[badcompany]

PPG hasn't been stinking up the place, lately, either. Ironically, I dumped the 4th stock on the list MTD, which turned out to be a winner, but, the stock I replaced it with AVGO hasn't disappointed.

Unless the bottom falls out of the market, always a possibility, 2015 is shaping up to be a good stock market year.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/6022f7911e440ad3cd6b1ea8d970a2c6_zps6f661644.jpg

[badcompany]

Nic earnings beat. The Street was looking for $4.87.

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/87910148ceb8c4815ae7e815fe903b33_zpsczbwyydw.jpg