Derby Futures

[fasteddied]

I am not one looking for advise often and am extremely hard headed (according to the wife) when I get it but with that said I am interested in what other cappers think in general about betting the derby futures. I know that if your wager does not make it you lose your bet and all that good stuff, I have been betting in the game for over 30 years myself. I made 2 bets today on Bovada one at 150-1 and the other at 16-1 and have only made one future HORSE bet before in the Bc and that ran 2nd. I am asking for thoughts and possibly what you gentleman think about the whole futures endeavor as I am a Claimer,Allowance type myself but made a excellent profit following the 2yo circut last summer and probably think I am smarter than I am.

[letswastemoney]

I wouldn't do it expecting to make a profit. I'd do it for fun to have extra incentive to root for a horse on the Derby trail.

I don't think it's possible to accurately handicap a race this early. But, I get that sometimes horses are 100/1 or something and it's tempting.

[olddaddy]

Ill play a couple bucks on 300/1 shots, more fun and longer bang for the buck than lottery tickets.

[zico20]

Putting a couple of bucks on horses over 100-1 isn't a bad idea. Its for entertainment purpose. If you play the lottery pick 3 it is over before you go to bed. This way at least you have something to look forward to when your horse runs in a prep race. I have not done it but if your horse makes the derby you will be real excited since no horse goes off over 50-1 nowadays.

[dilanesp]

I'm one of the anointed few to actually hit this bet (I had Thunder Gulch as one of two horses I bet in the winter of 1995). I've also come somewhat close the last two years (Will Take Charge and Oxbow were two of the six horses I bet in January 2013, and Commissioner, second in the Belmont, was one of the nine horses I bet in December 2013).

1. It's fun and increases interest during the Winter and Spring.

2. I don't think the futures offered by Churchill Downs are playable at all. The pari-mutuel format means that you can't get fixed odds and the proximity to the race means that the odds you do get aren't that good. Only play if you have access to a true future book like they have in Las Vegas.

3. Don't bet a lot of horses. Given the vigorish is huge, spreading just increases the amount of money you are donating to the bookmakers. This isn't a pick 6.

4. Demand value. Let me repeat that. DEMAND VALUE. I figure you shouldn't bet ANYTHING at under 40 to 1, given the odds are against any given horse even making it to the starting gate. The favorites are gross underlays. (When I was in Vegas to bet this in December, Texas Red was 8 to 1. That's preposterous.) And that's just a starting point. There are plenty of horses sitting at 40, 50, or 60 to 1 with huge demerits. Ideally, you should be looking for horses at 100 to 1 or above, though you can take less on a very strong horse whose merits are hidden.

5. Look for trainers who routinely get their horses into the Derby. As I said, the odds are most horses won't even start. So it's really nice to bet Lukas, Pletcher, Baffert, etc. They are more effective than other trainers at getting their horses into the starting gate. In contrast, really patient types or hard knocking claiming trainers might be excellent trainers, but they don't really circle the first Saturday in May on their calendars.

6. Handicap breeding. You don't have a lot of information about these horses from the racetrack. Obviously, you can't bet the horses who have won the biggest stakes (see 4), and the rest of them are a bunch of stakes placed or stakes also-rans plus numerous horses who have just won a maiden race or maybe a nonwinners of 2 or a small stake. You really have no idea how they are going to stretch out, whether their speed figures will jump up and improve, etc. But you can definitely look for classic pedigrees. Personally, I want to see a balance of both speed and stamina-- you actually do generally need some tactical speed to win the Derby, so a pedigree full of Dynaformer and Sadler's Wells isn't necessarily ideal. Look for classic sire lines, Derby winners and other big 1 1/4 mile stakes winners, etc., balanced with some speedy influences like Raise a Native and Mr. Prospector back there.

7. Look for hidden merit. The word "future" in future book is very important-- you are looking for horses who are going to be good in the future, not horses who are already good. Things like trip handicapping, sight handicapping, workouts, etc., all have a role here-- you want to get in your bet before the horse breaks through, runs a big race, and drops to 15 to 1.

(By the way, I bet 12 horses this year, which is more than I like to. But one of them, Calculator, already looks like a potential superstar, and Itsaknockout won an allowance at Gulfstream and looks like a good one. Tiznow RJ and Eagle are running tomorrow. On the other hand, Nasa got beat with no excuse in the Jerome and I'm wishing I could have scrubbed the launch on that one.)

[SansuiSC]

It's a crap shoot and all for fun. IMO. More fun if it goes your way.

I remember in 2009 I had $20 on I Want Revenge @50-1 in pool 1. He was to go as the favorite only to be scratched Derby morning.

Turns out the reason I bet the horse in pool 1 was because I was very angry about something not horse related and I never play like that (names) but the name reflected my mood at the time.

It was fun watching the horse progress through the derby trail, just wonder if he would have won had he not been scratched.

Lottery attitude w/that wager for me.

[Bennie]

I am one who also plays just for fun and for personal satisfaction when I see one or more of my early prospects make the field. Have had Smarty Jones at 125-1 and Giacomo at 25-1 (twice) but actually have made more money betting my top picks that did not make the Derby field but came back to win the Belmont. It is the very first bet I make every year come Belmont time. w/p on the "futures" horses. Lemon Drop Kid, Birdstone and Commissioner to name a few.