Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes

[Bob S.]

This is looking like a very interesting race. Eagle, War Story, Another Lemon Drop Kid, Runhappy, Tiznow R J, International Star, Savoy Stomp. Who is going to step out? I'm curious. Who do you think?

[Shemp Howard]

Eagle drew a bad post for 1 mile 70 yards.

Otherwise, he'd be the odds on horse to beat off of his closing 3rd to El Kabeir.

[Stoleitbreezing]

The last two editions of this race were decided on the front end and I expect that trend to continue despite the long stretch run at the Fairgrounds. The mile and 70 yard distance is still manageable to the front runners and stalker types. It will be interesting to see the fractions as the last two have been very slow for the level of competition.

[letswastemoney]

I picked Tiznow RJ. Maybe a light clicked in his head last time when he won by 13 lengths.

Tiznow progeny develop late, so I can forgive the first few losses.

[zico20]

A 11 horse field with a 3-1 ML favorite. I see 8 of them that could win it in here. I am not sold on Eagle's ability just yet. He will be the favorite at around 2-1 I am guessing. My only value to this thread is I never can pick a winner in a wide open race like this. So my selection can be an easy toss out for the rest of you, essentially making it a 10 horse field. :D With that said I like the :2: here. Maybe he just didn't care that much for CD his first two races. Inside post and early speed helps. :1: :4: :6: :10: :11: are the five I like the most behind him.

The three I don't like at all are the :5: :8: :9: The :3: :7: are long shot possibilities but must improve to get the win.

That is my picks. I am not betting the race under no circumstance.

[Robert Fischer]

I picked Tiznow RJ. Maybe a light clicked in his head last time when he won by 13 lengths.

Tiznow progeny develop late, so I can forgive the first few losses.

I agree w/ LWM.

and as far as having a neat 3yo pedigree? -Savoy Stomp.

[letswastemoney]

I agree w/ LWM.

and as far as having a neat 3yo pedigree? -Savoy Stomp.I picked Savoy Stomp as my third choice. I haven't liked his last two races, but lasix may get him going.

[ReplayRandall]

I picked Savoy Stomp as my third choice. I haven't liked his last two races, but lasix may get him going.

Savoy Stomp with 1st time Lasix and Mike Smith in the saddle might get the job done. Don't expect more than 7-2, the M/L is a fantasy at 8-1......

[biggestal99]

did anyone see Runhappy's debut at Turfway. Hoss has a bad start ran though the field to get the lead, went wide on the turn, ran greenly though the lane and won by 8. Loads of talent, terrible owner/trainer.

Allan

[letswastemoney]

did anyone see Runhappy's debut at Turfway. Hoss has a bad start ran though the field to get the lead, went wide on the turn, ran greenly though the lane and won by 8. Loads of talent, terrible owner/trainer.

AllanI not only saw it, but wrote an article about that race.

Runhappy article (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/10863/runhappy.html)

Popularity aside, his TIMEFORMUS speed figure looks good, but let's see if he duplicates that in a dirt route.

[ArlJim78]

I saw his debut. He could be the most talented horse in here. However his immaturity and inexperience make him a hard horse to like today.

[biggestal99]

I not only saw it, but wrote an article about that race.

Runhappy article (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/10863/runhappy.html)

Popularity aside, his TIMEFORMUS speed figure looks good, but let's see if he duplicates that in a dirt route.

good article.

"Runhappy comes from a modest pedigree on the female side, as dam Bella Jolie competed as a claiming horse. The second dam never started and the third dam Mimi La Sardine also ran as a claimer."

with a pedigree page like his he was buried at hip 1630 at Keeneland yearling sales, that he went 200k means this hoss was a looker and he ran to his looks first out. wish he had a better trainer/owner.

Allan

[Tom]

Who is this trainer?
I have him at 4 starts, 2 wins.
Is he the "name" trainer for someone on suspension?
:2: :6:

[Tom]

Nothing here going to Kentucky.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Nothing here going to Kentucky.

I'm sure Smith didn't care for the ride from the hopeless :5: whom on the send job smashed the :6: at the gate probably costing that one all chance. I would agree we probably didn't see a KD runner today.

[RXB]

I saw his debut. He could be the most talented horse in here. However his immaturity and inexperience make him a hard horse to like today.

Betting horses that won in their debuts when they return for their second starts is generally a below-average proposition.

Betting them when they stretch out almost 2f, switch surface types, and jump way up in class = 50% loss on every dollar wagered in the long run. Horses like Run Happy are among the biggest sucker bets in racing.

[Robert Fischer]

Great price today on the 2 Tiznow RJ.

You had the 11 Eagle being underlayed, and you had the 6 Savoy Stomp being underlayed.

The 2 was my play, just couldn't get the job done. Had a pretty tough pace situation, with the 5 barging out and contesting his potentially perfect trip, and 2 TiznowRJ was actually quite game, but you can't expect cakewalks in $200K stakes. The perfect break more than made up for the pace in my opinion.

Pretty good price on the winner as well, and it wasn't out of the question to use 1 on some deeper tickets.

While the 6 did not seem to deserve those crazy odds (public just betting the trainer, or did I miss something?) The 6 did in fact show very nice mid-late interest and could be a value in the next race. It isn't uncommon for Pletcher's horses to develop in spite of his reputation as FTS. We've already mentioned his obvious cool pedigree.

11 had that post, but I didn't notice anything eye-catching today. Wasn't sure why he was so heavily backed to begin with, but he did look solid on paper.

5 and 10 ran pretty game considering their pace.

solid enough race by the 4.

1 the winner is good enough that you can't toss him from future consideration. He could always surprise and turn out to be a tough stakes horse. Today was the day for price, however.