2015 Superbowl XLIX February 1, 2015

[lamboguy]

Glendale, Arizona

odds to win


Seattle Seahawks +125


New England Patriots +155


Green Bay Packers +500


Indianapolis Colts +650

[Investorater]

All I know is I want to see the super bowl halftime show so I can think Katy Perry is singing exclusively for me. ....... :cool:

[lamboguy]

Seattle Seahawks +105

Green Bay Packer's +560

New England Patriots +160

Indianapolis Colts +800

[cj's dad]

Going to be interesting to see how many points an "elite" QB like Andrew Luck can hang on NE. After all, a so-so QB like Flacco put up 31.

Also isn't it strange how another "elite' QB like Matt Ryan didn't even sniff the post-season?

[lamboguy]

i think the Ravens were not only the best team in the AFC, but they had the best shot to take down anyone from the NFC. they only lost the game because of a couple of trick plays, otherwise they'd be in the superbowl.

The Ravens are 10 times better than the Colts, this game sunday should be a picnic for the Pats.

[Secondbest]

The last 3 times they played pats won by 20pts. Brady put up 45 on them this year.

[proximity]

Going to be interesting to see how many points an "elite" QB like Andrew Luck can hang on NE. After all, a so-so QB like Flacco put up 31.

Also isn't it strange how another "elite' QB like Matt Ryan didn't even sniff the post-season?

40 touchdown passes and a colts franchise single season passing record. (despite not really trying vs dal or ten)

i think you can remove the quotes from elite when talking about andrew luck.

and too bad baltimore didn't hang 31 on pathetic teams like the colts, texans, or bengals because they would've went 14-2 and had the number one seed.

[proximity]

i think the Ravens were not only the best team in the AFC, but they had the best shot to take down anyone from the NFC. they only lost the game because of a couple of trick plays, otherwise they'd be in the superbowl.

The Ravens are 10 times better than the Colts, this game sunday should be a picnic for the Pats.

i agree with this post and was especially impressed with the ravens home win against jacksonville where their offense racked up 13 points against the jags in a must win game.

it's hard to say a team is "10 times better" than another team that not only won more games but beat the "better" team heads up while outgaining them by over 100 yards. so maybe you should temper the ravens margin of superiority to the lowly colts to a more humble four or five times better? :)

[thaskalos]

i agree with this post and was especially impressed with the ravens home win against jacksonville where their offense racked up 13 points against the jags in a must win game.

it's hard to say a team is "10 times better" than another team that not only won more games but beat the "better" team heads up while outgaining them by over 100 yards. so maybe you should temper the ravens margin of superiority to the lowly colts to a more humble four or five times better? :)

This biting sarcasm...was it there even before you started your poker thread? :)

[proximity]

This biting sarcasm...was it there even before you started your poker thread? :)

it was much worse when i was at the racetrack everyday.

too bad only the hotdog lady and a couple stoopers were around to hear it. :)

[lamboguy]

Seahawks + 105

Packers +550

Patriots +160


Colts +650

[_______]

Seahawks + 105

Packers +550

Patriots +160


Colts +650

Bovada offering this morning:

SEA +120
GB + 550
NE +190
IND +650

[lamboguy]

N E Pats now +130

[Secondbest]

Early matchups from The Palm

NFC -3

NE
SEa -3

Indy
SEA-6

NE-1
GB

Indy
GB-6

[Secondbest]

Make that. GB -3. vs Indy.

[lamboguy]

Green Bay Packers +650


Seattle Seahawks -115



Indianapolis Colts +700



NE Pats +140

[horses4courses]

Since bookmakers aren't allowed to refer to it
as the Super Bowl anymore......geesh :rolleyes:

Seattle -3 even

New England +3 -120

Un/Ov 49

Good luck to all!

[thaskalos]

Who in his right mind would bet on Seattle after watching today's games?

[lamboguy]

NE Pats +2 -115

Seattle Seahawks -2 -105

[horses4courses]

Who in his right mind would bet on Seattle after watching today's games?

You're right....the public has very short memories.
Seattle has no business being in the SB after today,
but they're still capable of beating NE in two weeks.

I see the bulk of public money going on NE,
and I'm surprised it's not closer to a pickem.

[thaskalos]

You're right....the public has very short memories.
Seattle has no business being in the SB after today,
but they're still capable of beating NE in two weeks.

I see the bulk of public money going on NE,
and I'm surprised it's not closer to a pickem.
Of course Seattle is capable of winning; anything is possible, as today's games clearly indicate. But if I am a bookmaker making the Super Bowl line tonight...I would be scared to death to put this game at Seattle -3.

This is a pick'em game if ever I saw one.

[horses4courses]

MGM has NE -1

[lamboguy]

NE Pats pk -110

Seattle Seahawks pk -110

[Valuist]

Who in his right mind would bet on Seattle after watching today's games?

They played terrible....and still found a way to win. Minus 3 in turnovers and Wilson throws 4 picks. That will never happen in 2 weeks. The real Super Bowl was today in Seattle. Seahawks D will do to Brady and Pats what they did to Manning and Broncos last year.

And I love hearing the public being on NE. Just like last year the public was all over Denver. The public can't get enough of passing and offense.

[thaskalos]

They played terrible....and still found a way to win. Minus 3 in turnovers and Wilson throws 4 picks. That will never happen in 2 weeks. The real Super Bowl was today in Seattle. Seahawks D will do to Brady and Pats what they did to Manning and Broncos last year.

And I love hearing the public being on NE. Just like last year the public was all over Denver. The public can't get enough of passing and offense.

They didn't find a way to win; the game was HANDED to them by some totally inept playing by the Packers. And the most puzzling play of all...IMO? What possible reason did that GB player have to go right to the ground after he picked off Wilson's pass with 5 minutes left in the game?

I like Seattle, and I will bet them in the Super Bowl...but I won't make NEARLY the bet that I had been thinking of making. This miracle win can have a very negative effect on Seattle...IMO. They could easily think that they are capable of always pulling off a victory, no matter HOW bad they play in the early going.

This fooling around in the first half of every game is not a good thing...and it could bite them against a first-class coaching staff.

[thaskalos]

They played terrible....and still found a way to win. Minus 3 in turnovers and Wilson throws 4 picks. That will never happen in 2 weeks. The real Super Bowl was today in Seattle. Seahawks D will do to Brady and Pats what they did to Manning and Broncos last year.

And I love hearing the public being on NE. Just like last year the public was all over Denver. The public can't get enough of passing and offense.

I don't know how you can say that. Brady is capable of doing a lot more damage than Manning...and, after seeing today's Seattle game, one has to figure that Brady will have plenty of time to throw the ball...and should also find some open receivers.

I predict a very exciting game.

[Speed Figure]

My line

NE -3 52
Sea

[Stillriledup]

They didn't find a way to win; the game was HANDED to them by some totally inept playing by the Packers. And the most puzzling play of all...IMO? What possible reason did that GB player have to go right to the ground after he picked off Wilson's pass with 5 minutes left in the game?

I like Seattle, and I will bet them in the Super Bowl...but I won't make NEARLY the bet that I had been thinking of making. This miracle win can have a very negative effect on Seattle...IMO. They could easily think that they are capable of always pulling off a victory, no matter HOW bad they play in the early going.

This fooling around in the first half of every game is not a good thing...and it could bite them against a first-class coaching staff.

I think its the opposite and my logic is that if you think their bad performance is because of fooling around and buying into their own hype, nothing like this game to bring them back to earth a bit and get them refocused. New England is coming off a game vs a team that just rolled over and quit like dogs, that's not the kind of performance you want coming into a game like this.

Can Brady really lose AGAIN? It seems unlikely that the NFL is going to permit these guys to get beat again.....it would be fun though seeing Brady lose for his final super bowl ever.

[pandy]

The line opened at Seahawks - 2.5 and quickly dropped to pick'em.

[burnsy]

Seattle's offense came out awful yesterday. But the thing people always seem to not understand is their defense. They bend but hardly ever break. Green Bay scored one TD with 4 visits to the red zone.....for 16 lousy points. Then in the second half their offense did nada. Partly because they thought they could sit on the lead. Green Bay also played 3 quarters of awesome defense but like the pattern usually goes by the end of the game they were getting gashed. You could tell that if Seattle got the ball GB could not stop them....after the onside kick and then the overtime coin flip........Seattle just pushed them around (beast mode) and scored at will. Seattle played bad against one of the best teams and still won. And the reality of this is Seattle, Green Bay and Dallas are way better teams than anything New England faced in the playoffs. That's what gets the AFC teams in trouble and the public seems to think these two leagues are equal. If the line went down during or after the Indy blowout, you got to like Seattle. If it ends up a pick um...you gotta love Seattle...if somehow Seattle gets points...its a no brainer ....win or lose as Burnsy says. Line wise, you get screwed because of the New England hype factor of the media and public if you like New England in this game. Take the teams names out of it and the NFC just off of team strength should be laying 5 1/2 to 6. Some of the teams in the playoffs in the AFC would not get a sniff vs. the NFC teams. Forget about Indy and last night, they played their usual soft, limp crap. Luck is no Russell Wilson....not even close. The hype cracks me up, Russell Wilson is a lion under pressure. Its not fancy but Wilson is a true "gamer" in this league. If New England can't run, it will be more like the game vs. the Ravens but Seattle will deliver the knock out late in the game....if New England lasts that long. Beating GB the way they did is a much harder accomplishment than beating up on Indy...who is just a weaker team. Green Bay and Seattle would destroy Indy, any day of the week in a big game that mattered. They practically handed GB a head start and still won. The chances that happens against NE are slim and I would of liked GB anyway if they held on.

[pandy]

I'm leaning towards Pats right now, but I still have to do some handicapping. The key to beating Seattle is shutting down their offense and winning a low scoring game. The Patriots defense always plays better as the season goes on and they have quality cornerbacks. Belichick doesn't like to let one player beat him so he'll have his defense concentrate on stopping Lynch and stopping the run game, so they'll have to contain Wilson's running, too, which Green Bay accomplished.

Of course, then you have to score, which is never easy against Seattle, but I think that the Patriots will have a good game plan to move the chains.

Interesting thing about this game, here we have the two best teams in the NFL and neither team has a top playmaker on offense. There isn't a single top wide receiver on either team and generally speaking, on offense, these are two of the slower teams in the NFL offensively. Seattle is a running team and the Patriots run and throw short passes to their tight end and slot receivers, none of whom are fast runners. Hard to see this being high scoring.

[RXB]

Take the teams names out of it and the NFC just off of team strength should be laying 5 1/2 to 6. Some of the teams in the playoffs in the AFC would not get a sniff vs. the NFC teams. Forget about Indy and last night, they played their usual soft, limp crap. Luck is no Russell Wilson....not even close. The hype cracks me up, Russell Wilson is a lion under pressure. Its not fancy but Wilson is a true "gamer" in this league.

You're coming up with some wild stuff these days. The AFC actually had a slight advantage in inter-conference games this season. No linemaker in the world would be giving NFC teams any type of huge advantage because of conference strength. Seattle only went 2-2 vs. the AFC this season.

As for Luck and Wilson, if Wilson was playing with the Colts' running backs and defence behind him he'd have been on the losing side of the same type of score as Luck was yesterday.

[pandy]

Luck is amazing, especially for a third year quarterback. The Colts problem isn't their offense, it's their defense, which simply isn't championship quality right now.

[thaskalos]

Seattle's offense came out awful yesterday. But the thing people always seem to not understand is their defense. They bend but hardly ever break. Green Bay scored one TD with 4 visits to the red zone.....for 16 lousy points. Then in the second half their offense did nada. Partly because they thought they could sit on the lead. Green Bay also played 3 quarters of awesome defense but like the pattern usually goes by the end of the game they were getting gashed. You could tell that if Seattle got the ball GB could not stop them....after the onside kick and then the overtime coin flip........Seattle just pushed them around (beast mode) and scored at will. Seattle played bad against one of the best teams and still won. And the reality of this is Seattle, Green Bay and Dallas are way better teams than anything New England faced in the playoffs. That's what gets the AFC teams in trouble and the public seems to think these two leagues are equal. If the line went down during or after the Indy blowout, you got to like Seattle. If it ends up a pick um...you gotta love Seattle...if somehow Seattle gets points...its a no brainer ....win or lose as Burnsy says. Line wise, you get screwed because of the New England hype factor of the media and public if you like New England in this game. Take the teams names out of it and the NFC just off of team strength should be laying 5 1/2 to 6. Some of the teams in the playoffs in the AFC would not get a sniff vs. the NFC teams. Forget about Indy and last night, they played their usual soft, limp crap. Luck is no Russell Wilson....not even close. The hype cracks me up, Russell Wilson is a lion under pressure. Its not fancy but Wilson is a true "gamer" in this league. If New England can't run, it will be more like the game vs. the Ravens but Seattle will deliver the knock out late in the game....if New England lasts that long. Beating GB the way they did is a much harder accomplishment than beating up on Indy...who is just a weaker team. Green Bay and Seattle would destroy Indy, any day of the week in a big game that mattered. They practically handed GB a head start and still won. The chances that happens against NE are slim and I would of liked GB anyway if they held on.

I usually agree with you, Burnsy...but this time I think you are mistaken. These two teams match up a lot better than you think. Seattle's defense wasn't anything special at the end of the game, either. Rodgers marched right down the field for the tying field goal...even though he was on only one leg.

[horses4courses]

I really liked Seattle last year,
and I have a little 8-1 futures on them this time.

However, they are very beatable this year.
The game is a coin flip.

[Valuist]

I don't know how you can say that. Brady is capable of doing a lot more damage than Manning...and, after seeing today's Seattle game, one has to figure that Brady will have plenty of time to throw the ball...and should also find some open receivers.

I predict a very exciting game.

Brady is NOT a better QB than Manning. He may be healthier than Manning right now, but he wasn't the real reason for the blowout of the Colts. The Colts couldn't stop Blount and Luck played poorly. Brady is maybe the best rain and snow QB I've ever seen, and he clearly handled the conditions better than Luck.

As for Seattle, because they played so poorly in the first 2 1/2 quarters, people forget how well they closed things out; 28-6 run to end the game; that is their trademark;they held Rodgers, IMO, the current top QB in the game, to just 178 passing yards on 34 attempts and a 56 QB rating. And Rodgers appeared to be much physically better than he was vs Dallas. Seattle also rushed for nearly 200 yards. That is how you overcome minus 3 in turnovers, which is no small feat. Last time it was done in postseason was 1981.

I think many have a recency bias only looking at the final scores from yesterday.

[horses4courses]

I think many have a recency bias only looking at the final scores from yesterday.

That's how much of the public bets sports.
They seldom remember past the last game.

Which is why NE will probably end up a slight favorite for the game.

[Valuist]

That's how much of the public bets sports.
They seldom remember past the last game.

Which is why NE will probably end up the slight favorite for the game.

We see it a lot in horse racing, and we see it in the NFL.

I don't think we see it much in sports like the NBA and MLB because the public perception tends to lag about 2 weeks behind. They aren't studying box scores every day.

[Valuist]

Luck is amazing, especially for a third year quarterback. The Colts problem isn't their offense, it's their defense, which simply isn't championship quality right now.

It seems like the same thing we'd see when Manning was QB. They built a team to jump other teams early, then have their defensive strength be the pass rush, so they could use their speed to pass rush as they could play one dimensional defense. Over the past 15 years, they've never been good against the run, and never have been physical.

[horses4courses]

We see it a lot in horse racing, and we see it in the NFL.

I don't think we see it much in sports like the NBA and MLB because the public perception tends to lag about 2 weeks behind. They aren't studying box scores every day.

True.
Too many games in a short period.
MLB has the "marquee" pitcher effect, too.
They bet those guys like it's free money - regardless of the line.

[thaskalos]

Brady is NOT a better QB than Manning. He may be healthier than Manning right now, but he wasn't the real reason for the blowout of the Colts. The Colts couldn't stop Blount and Luck played poorly. Brady is maybe the best rain and snow QB I've ever seen, and he clearly handled the conditions better than Luck.

As for Seattle, because they played so poorly in the first 2 1/2 quarters, people forget how well they closed things out; 28-6 run to end the game; they held Rodgers, IMO, the current top QB in the game, to just 178 passing yards on 34 attempts. And Rodgers appeared to be much physically better than he was vs Dallas. Seattle also rushed for nearly 200 yards. That is how you overcome minus 3 in turnovers, which is no small feat. Last time it was done in postseason was 1981.

I think many have a recency bias only looking at the final scores from yesterday.

The problem with Seattle is that they play poorly in the first 2 1/2 quarters...IN EVERY SINGLE GAME. They were DEAD AND BURIED yesterday...and only a bonafide MIRACLE saved them. And Rodgers had no trouble at all marching down-field for that tying field goal.

I LOVE Seattle, and I loved them in the Super Bowl LAST year...but this SB looks like a thriller to me.

[thaskalos]

Brady is NOT a better QB than Manning. He may be healthier than Manning right now, but he wasn't the real reason for the blowout of the Colts. The Colts couldn't stop Blount and Luck played poorly. Brady is maybe the best rain and snow QB I've ever seen, and he clearly handled the conditions better than Luck.

As for Seattle, because they played so poorly in the first 2 1/2 quarters, people forget how well they closed things out; 28-6 run to end the game; that is their trademark;they held Rodgers, IMO, the current top QB in the game, to just 178 passing yards on 34 attempts and a 56 QB rating. And Rodgers appeared to be much physically better than he was vs Dallas. Seattle also rushed for nearly 200 yards. That is how you overcome minus 3 in turnovers, which is no small feat. Last time it was done in postseason was 1981.

I think many have a recency bias only looking at the final scores from yesterday.

Yeah..."He may be healthier than Manning right now". Or...he may NOT be...right?

[RXB]

Brady is NOT a better QB than Manning. He may be healthier than Manning right now, but he wasn't the real reason for the blowout of the Colts. The Colts couldn't stop Blount and Luck played poorly. Brady is maybe the best rain and snow QB I've ever seen, and he clearly handled the conditions better than Luck.

As for Seattle, because they played so poorly in the first 2 1/2 quarters, people forget how well they closed things out; 28-6 run to end the game; that is their trademark;they held Rodgers, IMO, the current top QB in the game, to just 178 passing yards on 34 attempts and a 56 QB rating. And Rodgers appeared to be much physically better than he was vs Dallas. Seattle also rushed for nearly 200 yards. That is how you overcome minus 3 in turnovers, which is no small feat. Last time it was done in postseason was 1981.

I think many have a recency bias only looking at the final scores from yesterday.

I think you have a last-season bias.

If Rodgers had been healthy, Green Bay would've won yesterday.

[NJ Stinks]

Before making a few points, I will say I bet Seattle to win the Super Bowl at 2-1 just before Wild Card weekend. Obviously, I should have ripped up my ticket yesterday.

1. Burnsy, you said it yourself. Seattle's D kept them in the game. Despite Wilson doing his best impersonation of Andy Dalton in the playoffs yesterday. Put another way, Seattle's team carried Wilson. Meanwhile, Luck plays for a team that relies on Luck. Period. Yesterday, Luck had no luck - starting with a slow field (and the rain) that favored the team that was able to grind it out on the ground and thrived on short crossing patterns. Factor in the Colts' defense disappeared in the second half and the oh so nice home field advantage and I think it's fair to say Luck might have to change his last name because it's giving "luck" a bad name.

One small point about Andrew that really impressed me yesterday. Did you see the way he went after those Patriots defensive backs who intercepted his passes?

2. I can't see Blount doing any better than Lacy running the ball in the Super Bowl. Also believe the Seahawks pass D will make Brady long for Colts coverage. Meanwhile, Seattle's offense will have trouble too against NE's defense - despite Burnsy's admiration for all things Wilson! :) So I guess it comes down to this. IMO, Seattle is a better team collectively than New England lost to in their last 2 Super Bowl appearances. I can't see Brady at 37 doing what he did not do against the Giants in 2008 and 2012.

3. Don't forget - it's a game long commitment but under is on the menu too!

[kingfin66]

They played terrible....and still found a way to win. Minus 3 in turnovers and Wilson throws 4 picks. That will never happen in 2 weeks. The real Super Bowl was today in Seattle. Seahawks D will do to Brady and Pats what they did to Manning and Broncos last year.

And I love hearing the public being on NE. Just like last year the public was all over Denver. The public can't get enough of passing and offense.

This is why you are THE GREAT Valuist. You get it!

[lamboguy]

having followed superbowls for many years, i have found that the team that takes the line moves have held up more than the one's that haven't..

i am told that the move last night from Seattle -3 to pick it was so called smart money from wiseguys that are betting on the Patriots because the cornerback for the Seahawks has a bad arm. that injury was not plugged into the line when it came out.

[horses4courses]

Books such as William Hill, etc., have gotten into the habit (a bad one)
of posting generic lines prior to posting the official line.

Well before the conf. c'ships even started, they had potential match-ups
posted for SB. They made SEA a 3 pt. favorite over NE, and 7 over IND.
GB was something like -2 over NE and 6 over IND.

It wouldn't surprise me if these lines were hung in places as if
they were "made to order". Nobody took a decent pop on NE +3,
and if they did they need their heads examined.
Generic lines pay no attention to public perception following a
blowout win such as the Patriots yesterday.

[Dark Horse]

This past weekend is the perfect setup. Couldn't be better. lol

[Rookies]

"Brady is NOT a better QB than Manning. "

My group and I argued this one, but we're loooooong settled.

P. Manning is the best REGULAR season QB. In the Playoffs, he's been mediocre and has less than a .500 Career Win ratio. He has a worse record than his brother, for God sakes and is way behind several QBs.

This doesn't mean that Brady is the best money, Playoff QB ever, but he is very close to Joe for the #1 spot. Beat the NY Giants and he'd be a cinch. Dude has 20 Ws and is 4 ahead of Joe. Never,never had a Jerry Rice to throw to. He's simply astonishingly good and being a Bills' fan, I hate the Pats!

I don't care if you throw for 100 TDs during the Regular Season against the stiffs. When the money is on the line, let's see what you're made of and Manning has been crap during show time.

[Valuist]

having followed superbowls for many years, i have found that the team that takes the line moves have held up more than the one's that haven't..

i am told that the move last night from Seattle -3 to pick it was so called smart money from wiseguys that are betting on the Patriots because the cornerback for the Seahawks has a bad arm. that injury was not plugged into the line when it came out.

Early line last year was Seahawks -2 to +2 early on last year and it was a classic over-reaction to the most recent game. Looks like a very similar situation here. Teddy Covers said in a period of 20 minutes, Sea went from -3 to minus 1 on Sunday night. Any move off 3 is a big move, although IMO, it isn't warranted.

BTW, the sharps and big bettors were just about unanimously on the Seahawks last year, while the public was on the "big offense" Broncos. Deja vu.

[Valuist]

Yeah..."He may be healthier than Manning right now". Or...he may NOT be...right?

I think that its pretty clear Brady is healthier than Manning right now. Brady didn't have a tear in the biggest muscle in the body.

[thaskalos]

I think that its pretty clear Brady is healthier than Manning right now. Brady didn't have a tear in the biggest muscle in the body.

Even when healthy...Manning has proven to be no bargain in cold weather, and in the playoffs. Not a good combination to be mediocre in...IMO.

[RXB]

Last season Seattle was a truly great team by my estimation, in the upper echelon of Super Bowl champs. This season they've played a significantly less challenging schedule (in both the regular season and the playoffs) yet have won one fewer game.

Last year, Seattle and Denver had the same record going into the Super Bowl but the Seahawks' schedule was much tougher than the Broncos'. Seattle should've been favoured by probably about 4 points. Instead the line closed Denver -2.5.

This year, New England and Seattle have the same record but New England has played the stronger schedule. Seattle's defence keeps them in every game so I'm not sure that New England should be favoured... but I'm not sure that they shouldn't be favoured, either. I'd say anything from pick-em to NE -1.5 seems about right. Essentially a toss-up.

[Stillriledup]

Last year, Seattle was "known" as a team who committed a holding penalty on every defensive play.....obvious grabbing and holding....they did this under the attitude that the NFL wasn't going to throw a flag on every play, so they threw some flags and let the other stuff go. Now, you know that Belichick knows this....so, he could do the same thing with his defense, just hold hold hold OR he can somehow get the refs to start calling penalty after penalty on the Seattle Defense until those guys stop holding.

To me, this is a very tough game to handicap because you don't really know the mental state of the Hawks. Are they "Satisfied" that they won last year? You have to imagine the Pats are "hungrier" than Seattle, no? In other words, the Pats have "more to lose" by losing this game.....Seattle loses its no big deal because they won last year and its no shame losing to Tom Brady....so, what will the Seattle "urgency" look like? Will they be AS urgent as the Pats?

I would imagine that there's some kind of "inside information" on this game that would really help point you to the winner....but, we don't have it...and the game is pickem for the most part and it does seem like either team could realistically win. In order to make a good bet in this game you have to come up with something that's not in the mainstream, you need a theory that hasn't been talked about or discussed and latch your wagon to that star, because what's out in the public for consumption, is that this is a pickem game and its essentially a coinflip that you're paying 11 to win 10 to bet on.

[lamboguy]

Seahawks +1 -110


Pats -1 -110

[lamboguy]

Seahawks Pk -105


Pats Pk -115

[_______]

Bovada offering:

NE -2 -110
SEA + 2 -110

The line had been 1 with NE -115 and SEA -105 when I looked on Monday. Normally, I don't see them move the line. They adjust the lay to extremes before ever moving a line.

(Red Board alert)

I already have a small SEA +200 on a bet before the conference championships that SEA would beat NE in the Super Bowl. I'm glad it's a cyber ticket as I would have torn it in the 4th quarter of the GB game otherwise. Wouldn't take the 2 but will look at alternative lines (-3.5, -7.5, -10.5, etc.) that offer + numbers closer to the game.

[lamboguy]

Seahawks +1 -110


Pats -1 -110


NO CHANGE

[Dark Horse]

This past weekend is the perfect setup. Couldn't be better. lol

This past week was horrible. Couldn't be worse.

[mountainman]

Like Seattle. Pats can't contain the beast and spy on Wilson at same time. Watched New England struggle with some bad teams this season, still view them as a bit suspect. Brady awesome, but eligible to get frustrated given hawk's great secondary, and if pats can't bully with offense, team tends to unravel.

Also, P C can coach on par with B B, which not many peers can manage.

[lamboguy]

i know the odds maker's and the public have this as a close game. i don't because i see no way that the Seahawks front 4 can deal the Patriots offensive line. that tends to lead to blowout's.

my Pats in a blowout victory

[Marshall Bennett]

Close on paper, but heavily favors Pats with emotion. They have a point to prove and some critics to silence. :)

[badcompany]

You won't go broke betting the better D every year in the Super Bowl.

Seattle covers with Kam Chancellor as the MVP.

[thaskalos]

Wilson saves his best game for last, and punishes the NE secondary mercilessly...while Seattle's D covers NE's receivers like a blanket. Seattle...28-17.

[lamboguy]

Wilson saves his best game for last, and punishes the NE secondary mercilessly...while Seattle's D covers NE's receivers like a blanket. Seattle...28-17.no doubt about it the Seahawk secondary is dynamite, the only problem is i don't think the Patriot's will be passing to much in this game. the offensive line of the Patriots push the defensive tackles backwards and they knockdown the linebackers. if i am right, the Patriots should be able to run all day on the Hawks and Wilson we be chasing from behind all game and might be forced into making many mistakes. i really wish i was wrong, but i highly doubt it.

[thaskalos]

no doubt about it the Seahawk secondary is dynamite, the only problem is i don't think the Patriot's will be passing to much in this game. the offensive line of the Patriots push the defensive tackles backwards and they knockdown the linebackers. if i am right, the Patriots should be able to run all day on the Hawks and Wilson we be chasing from behind all game and might be forced into making many mistakes. i really wish i was wrong, but i highly doubt it.

Brady is the key...IMO. Seattle has the better ground game, AND the better defense against the run. If Brady airs it out in the early stages of the game against the typically slow-starting Hawks, and builds up a sizable lead at the half...then Seattle's Marshawn Lynch gets limited snaps in the second half, and NE probably wins. But if Belichick decides to play it close to the vest early by mainly relying on his ground game, and the score is close at halftime...then Seattle wins in a walk. No way can NE stay with Seattle in the second half...IMO.

[thaskalos]

In my opinion...Marshawn Lynch will have a big game against NE...and this will give Wilson the help that he needs to unleash the Seattle passing attack. A balanced offense and a lock-down defense are tough to beat.

[lamboguy]

when you have an opinion, you can test it out in Nevada on this game for basically whatever your heart desires.

[thaskalos]

when you have an opinion, you can test it out in Nevada on this game for basically whatever your heart desires.
My money is already in. A highly reputable outfit here had NE -1, -120...so I took Seattle +1, and no juice. How can you go wrong? :)

[pandy]

I lost the last two Super Bowls, which put my record in Super Bowls to 9 and 4 over the past 13 since I started handicapping it on my website. The last three times New England was in the SB I bet against them and won, but this time I'm going with Patriots.

It's hard see either one of these teams scoring a lot of points, two good defensive secondaries, and neither team has outstanding wide receivers, so they're both going to try to run the ball. Belichick always targets the opposition's main weapon, so he'll keep his linebackers in close to the line of scrimmage to stop Lynch, while trying to keep Wilson in the pocket. My complete analysis is below.



http://www.handicappingwinners.com/nfl_bets.htm

[_______]

Took alt line at Bovada. SEA -6.5 +195

[Stillriledup]

How about this as a "Tell".

Belichick running those plays with the eligible/ineligible confusion vs the Ravens...my question is this....if you have the better players, why get cute? Why not just line up and smash the other guys, if you're the best and have the better players, why resort to chicanery?

[pandy]

How about this as a "Tell".

Belichick running those plays with the eligible/ineligible confusion vs the Ravens...my question is this....if you have the better players, why get cute? Why not just line up and smash the other guys, if you're the best and have the better players, why resort to chicanery?

The thing is, the Patriots haven't had the best players in many years, but that hasn't stopped them from having the highest win percentage in the NFL. They have better game plans and better execution of the game plan than the other teams.

[cj's dad]

The thing is, the Patriots haven't had the best players in many years, but that hasn't stopped them from having the highest win percentage in the NFL. They have better game plans and better execution of the game plan than the other teams.

They are in the worst division in the AFC - Guaranteed 5 wins in that division every year.

[Robert Fischer]

Like Seattle. Pats can't contain the beast and spy on Wilson at same time. Watched New England struggle with some bad teams this season, still view them as a bit suspect. Brady awesome, but eligible to get frustrated given hawk's great secondary, and if pats can't bully with offense, team tends to unravel.

Also, P C can coach on par with B B, which not many peers can manage.

I think you nailed it, on all points.

This game reminds me a lot of the Ohio State vs. Oregon college championship game.

Seattle's offense is in some ways similar to OSU.
Establishing and using Wilson's threat as a runner looks to be a key.
(Maybe I'd say Gronkowski as an established threat could be the Pats' offensive key?).

I still can't confidently pick this game. 2 well coached teams that are both pretty good. Anyone can win 1 game.

[lamboguy]

They are in the worst division in the AFC - Guaranteed 5 wins in that division every year.
even though it was a close game, the Pats did beat the team that i considered to be the best team in the NFL, The Ravens, in a playoff game no less. it would be very tough for me to stick my money against a team that already beat the best.

[sammy the sage]

this game reminds me of 90% of all FINAL championship games...including the recently played NCAA...

DEFENSE wins THE title 90% of time...

Seahawks better defense wise...PERIOD...

[Augenj]

I wonder if this moved the line.

Las Vegas sports book takes “seven-figure wager” on Patriots (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/30/las-vegas-sports-book-takes-seven-figure-wager-on-patriots/)

[horses4courses]

I wonder if this moved the line.

Las Vegas sports book takes “seven-figure wager” on Patriots (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/30/las-vegas-sports-book-takes-seven-figure-wager-on-patriots/)

It has to have done.
Sitting on PK, then going to NE -1, is no big deal.

This year's matchup is intriguing from a bookmaking
standpoint, though. I have no idea what it is going to
take to get a high volume of buyback on Seattle.
+1 is not going to do it. +1.5 might get some interest,
but I don't think it will cause a rush to the windows.

Bookmakers are very likely to be rooting for Seattle tomorrow.

[ReplayRandall]

I wonder if this moved the line.

Las Vegas sports book takes “seven-figure wager” on Patriots (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/30/las-vegas-sports-book-takes-seven-figure-wager-on-patriots/)

It is "rumored" that Billy Walters made the bet---> $2.5 Mil....

[Augenj]

It is "rumored" that Billy Walters made the bet---> $2.5 Mil....
And he doesn't miss too often from what I've heard. ;)

[horses4courses]

It is "rumored" that Billy Walters made the bet---> $2.5 Mil....

You may well be right, but do you have a source for this rumor?

[ReplayRandall]

You may well be right, but do you have a source for this rumor?

Seriously??.....You're a funny guy H4C...

[thaskalos]

It is "rumored" that Billy Walters made the bet---> $2.5 Mil....
Are you sure it wasn't Floyd Mayweather? :)

[ReplayRandall]

Are you sure it wasn't Floyd Mayweather? :)


He uses Cantor Gaming through the M Resort......

[Secondbest]

To me this game comes down to What are the Seahawks going to do for points?.The pats secondary is far better than seattle's receivers.That leaves lynch which is a lot but a one dimensional attack won't beat NE in my opinion.I also see the pats using a "spy" on wilson.One last thing Everyone on NFL network ESPN etc, all call for a close low scoring game.You know when that happens they can't be right. So I like NE and the over.

[Marshall Bennett]

Patriots 42 Seadogs 20 :cool:

[Stillriledup]

It is "rumored" that Billy Walters made the bet---> $2.5 Mil....

Maybe it was Ashton Kutcher. :eek:

[ReplayRandall]

Maybe it was Ashton Kutcher. :eek:
You must be referring to this:

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2013-02-15/ashton-kutcher-sports-betting-esquire-las-vegas-syndicate

BTW, their "beard play" is dead....

[Stillriledup]

You must be referring to this:

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2013-02-15/ashton-kutcher-sports-betting-esquire-las-vegas-syndicate

BTW, their "beard play" is dead....

How is their beard play dead? If Ashton or Money wants to bet a million, who's stopping them?

[ReplayRandall]

How is their beard play dead? If Ashton or Money wants to bet a million, who's stopping them?
You misunderstood.....Ashton was perceived as a "sucker", that's how the syndicate got the plays down on college football and beat them for a quick 800K before they caught on. Ashton got the best line available because they wanted his action. You think any "known" gamblers/syndicates were going to get the same line as Ashton got?.....Fat chance...It's all about line manipulation for the big boys to succeed......

[Stillriledup]

You misunderstood.....Ashton was perceived as a "sucker", that's how the syndicate got the plays down on college football and beat them for a quick 800K before they caught on. Ashton got the best line available because they wanted his action. You think any "known" gamblers/syndicates were going to get the same line as Ashton got?.....Fat chance...It's all about line manipulation for the big boys to succeed......

I understand that, my question is why is their beard play dead? Can't they get another "Ashton" to place wagers?

[RXB]

They {New England} are in the worst division in the AFC - Guaranteed 5 wins in that division every year.

AFC South (Indy's division) was clearly weaker than the AFC East this season. AFC West about equal with the East. AFC Central had the best overall W-L record by a significant margin, but that was partly due to getting fat in 16 games against its interconference rival division this season-- the utterly hapless NFC South. (Went 12-3-1)

AFC East in total had two more wins than losses.

[RXB]

Patriots 42 Seadogs 20

Seattle's biggest losing margin in the past three seasons is just nine points (vs San Diego this past Sept). Nobody has scored more than 34 against the Seahawks in those three years.

[ReplayRandall]

I understand that, my question is why is their beard play dead? Can't they get another "Ashton" to place wagers?

"Arrangement" betting is now in vogue, so to speak. Too many eye-in-the-sky identifying networks for beard play to work consistently. The syndicate is better off having an arrangement with large bookmakers who need money on a certain side of "said" line. If that line fits the synd. needs, then we have a play. Sometimes, both sides are false fronting each other to get info on what "inside" info may be out there......It's one heck of a cat-n-mouse game these days, with the very best syndicates and their superior value line-guys versus the super-book, best-of-the-rest, line-makers....

[Stillriledup]

"Arrangement" betting is now in vogue, so to speak. Too many eye-in-the-sky identifying networks for beard play to work consistently. The syndicate is better off having an arrangement with large bookmakers who need money on a certain side of "said" line. If that line fits the synd. needs, then we have a play. Sometimes, both sides are false fronting each other to get info on what "inside" info may be out there......It's one heck of a cat-n-mouse game these days, with the very best syndicates and their superior value line-guys versus the super-book, best-of-the-rest, line-makers....

Good info.

Question: Why is "Vegas" so scared of sports bettors...didn't they used to be "not as scared"? In other words if you're a betting parlor and you're putting up lines, why not man up and take the bets? If they don't want to take the bets, maybe they can take up knitting and get out of the sports booking business?

[proximity]

Seattle's biggest losing margin in the past three seasons is just nine points (vs San Diego this past Sept). Nobody has scored more than 34 against the Seahawks in those three years.

just guessing, but i'd say baltimore is the only offense powerful enough to put up such a total against the seahawks?? was it baltimore? :)

[RXB]

just guessing, but i'd say baltimore is the only offense powerful enough to put up such a total against the seahawks?? was it baltimore? :)

You betcha, only an offense led by Flacco could be good enough to do that. Certainly not your team, led by that overrated/overhyped dweeb.

[lamboguy]

Seahawks pk -110

Patriots pk -110

[Augenj]

This is what my partners go by.

Lines & Odds (http://pregame.com/lines_odds/default.aspx)

[lamboguy]

Seahawks +1 - 110

Patriots -1 -110

[proximity]

You betcha, only an offense led by Flacco could be good enough to do that. Certainly not your team, led by that overrated/overhyped dweeb.

i think that person is more nerd than dweeb but your point is well taken. :)

[pandy]

I find the over/unders much tougher to pick than the point spread. On paper, yes, it should be a low scoring game, but, if the defenses force turnovers that create easy points, then all of a sudden the game goes over even though the offense isn't getting that many yards.

[Stillriledup]

I find the over/unders much tougher to pick than the point spread. On paper, yes, it should be a low scoring game, but, if the defenses force turnovers that create easy points, then all of a sudden the game goes over even though the offense isn't getting that many yards.

Maybe more turnovers with the properly "flated" ball will be in N.E.s future.

Lets hope.

[Robert Fischer]

http://oi62.tinypic.com/15ge549.jpg.

[lamboguy]

the pickem and Pats -1 has been bouncing back and forth for the last 2 days.

bottom line is this game is getting 2 way action to it, they are laying pick with the Pats and taking 1 with the Seahawks.

[burnsy]

I like the Seahawks and think there are only two ways they can lose, mistakes like last week. Belichik will not settle for FG's on the one yard line. The second way is getting burned with a last minute drive by Brady.

But here's why they should win. NE runs a ball control offense. Against poor defenses this racks up the points, vs. the good defenses this means small plays, long drives and low scores. This plays right into Seattle's wheel house. They will give up 8 yards here, 11 yards there. That's the way Seattle loves to play, they will bend all day and then hammer you in the red zone. This keeps the score close until one team fades like a front runner going 10 furlongs. This is how they do it, they are coached to play 4 entire quarters with the last one being their strongest. People have this impression that New England is the "big play" offense, they are actually dink and dunk. Like 26th in the league big plays over 20 yards. With Seattle its dink, dunk, tire you out and then it happens............30, 40 yards at once. Against GB Wilson converted a freaking 3rd and 29! Late in the game they steam roll over the tired opponent like Concern coming down the lane. The big plays start to come in bunches. The other team gets desperate and then that leads to big plays on defense as well. They are actually like a top 6 team with big plays on offense. Those broken plays where Wilson throws/runs and Lynch gain 25 to 40 yards are part of the plan. Once the opponent is tired out its like watching the dam break. Green Bay was most likely the best team this year, they squandered opportunities and could not withstand the 4th quarter push. New England either has to be ahead by a lot or count on some "Brady magic" or it will be a long, long day for them. Their last two Super Bowl appearances.....31 total points vs. the Giants. That will get your ass kicked against this team. New England has the best defense they've had in a while, they have to have 4 good quarters or its no shot. Plus, they have to run, if they run half as good as the Indy game, they will do well. If it gets smothered like the Ravens game...lights out, see you next year.

[mountainman]

Seattle. And not that close. Hawk's defense frustrates Brady, Wilson's mobility drives pats crazy, and at some point, beast mode tramples them. 4th quarter anti-climactic with game securely in bag.

[lamboguy]

Patriots +1 -105

Seahawks -1 -115


new favorite today

[Secondbest]

On Wfan Francessa said guys he knows in vegas told him that 2 enormous bets came in on Seattle and moved the line to sea -1.

[ReplayRandall]

Huge bet 5 min. ago at Bovada moved line to N.E. -1.5......


Update: Line at Wynn just moved from Sea. -1 to N.E. -1.....

[lamboguy]

Pats +1 - 115

Seahawks - 1 -105



last update for me, i am heading to the game


good luck whomever you like, i am going with the Pats and under 47 1/2. if i split i will be happy

[Nitro]

I’m going with the Patriots today because I think they had an easier playoff game and are not as banged up as the Seahawks. They also seem to have a bit of an edge offensively. I don’t think the Seattle defense is as strong as it was last year and the way Roger’s was able to move the ball makes me think that Brady will do the same. I think the best game I saw all season was when the Green Bay played New England. I felt that the last team to have the ball before time ran out would win and the Packers did just that. I still believe the Packers should have won that playoff game, but a trick play and botched on-side kick cost them big time.
Score prediction: New England 30 – 24

[davew]

short squeeze going on for small time scalpers/traders who sold without possession because usually prices drop during week near game time.

ticket prices highest ever and nearing $10K for anything

[thaskalos]

GO SEAHAWKS!!!

[PhantomOnTour]

I have to register my pick:

SEAHAWKS

[Tom]

GO away Katie Perry! NOW! :sleeping:
It's football, can't they pull Katie out and sub in Paul McCartney - he IS there!

There is only one team that can make me root for Brady - Seahawks.

Go Pats......yuck.

[Clocker]

GO away Katie Perry! NOW! :sleeping:


I'd rather listen to her than Bob Costas. :rolleyes:

[Tom]

I had already posted that when he came on.
For what purpose, I have no idea.

Projectile vomiting is better than Costas. :kiss:

[Stillriledup]

Here comes the NFL refs trying to get the Pats back in the game GO REFS!

[Grits]

A fine football game, quite unlike last year's blowout. Russell can run it, as well as pass it.

I'm not a Katy Perry person, but her last song was good. I'd rather have seen Bruno Mars back doing, "Uptown Funk". Love his music, and love that song.

[RXB]

Russell Wilson is probably the best scrambler that I've ever seen. Because not only can he make good yardage by running; he's so aware, he sees the field while he's on the run, spots the open guys.

Great game.

[Stillriledup]

Russell Wilson is probably the best scrambler that I've ever seen. Because not only can he make good yardage by running; he's so aware, he sees the field while he's on the run, spots the open guys.

Great game.

He's a great player, no doubt.

[Stillriledup]

Patriots did it. Wow. World champs. Brady adds to his legacy, incredible. What a comeback, they looked dead when they were down 10 without the ball.

[RXB]

When you keep Wilson in the pocket, he's an average NFL starting QB. You let him get outside containment, he's big trouble.

New England re-takes the lead. Where are the guys who said it would be an easy Seattle win? This figured to be a dead-tight game and it is.

[RXB]

Patriots did it. Wow. World champs. Brady adds to his legacy, incredible. What a comeback, they looked dead when they were down 10 without the ball.

Game's not over.

[Stillriledup]

Game's not over.

Sure it is. Its over, just not enough time for a comeback.

[RXB]

Two minutes, all three timeouts, ball at midfield... no chance for a comeback??

[Stillriledup]

When you keep Wilson in the pocket, he's an average NFL starting QB. You let him get outside containment, he's big trouble.

New England re-takes the lead. Where are the guys who said it would be an easy Seattle win? This figured to be a dead-tight game and it is.

Nobody said this would be an easy win. Not one single person.

[Stillriledup]

Two minutes, all three timeouts, ball at midfield... no chance for a comeback??

No Seattle is dead. They had the 10 pt lead and the ball and didn't want it bad enough.

[098poi]

Oh my God!

[ReplayRandall]

LADY LUCK GIVETH AND WILSON SAYS NO THANK YOU!

[Stillriledup]

Oh my God!

I just texted the same exact thing to someone.

Stupidest playcall in NFL history bar none.

[Speed Figure]

My line

NE -3 52
Sea
Guess who just WON MONEY MANE......:jump: Side and total HIT!!

[Stillriledup]

And then Typical Boston fashion, thugging it up. Bet Aaron Hernandez is proud.

[ReplayRandall]

Guess who just WON MONEY MANE......:jump: Side and total HIT!!

Congrats Speed Figure, you had a great year... :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Does Aaron Hernandez get a ring? :D

[mountainman]

A fine football game, quite unlike last year's blowout. Russell can run it, as well as pass it.

I'm not a Katy Perry person, but her last song was good. I'd rather have seen Bruno Mars back doing, "Uptown Funk". Love his music, and love that song.
great show, couldn't BELIEVE how high they lifted her on that tiny platform..........but poor sound quality really marred the musical element

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay... I tell you, mine was a stroke of genius.

I bet $11 on the Seahawks. LOL - I never win football bets.

Best $11 I ever lost.

I am now down like $33 for the decade.

[Nitro]

I’m going with the Patriots today because I think they had an easier playoff game and are not as banged up as the Seahawks. They also seem to have a bit of an edge offensively. I don’t think the Seattle defense is as strong as it was last year and the way Roger’s was able to move the ball makes me think that Brady will do the same. I think the best game I saw all season was when the Green Bay played New England. I felt that the last team to have the ball before time ran out would win and the Packers did just that. I still believe the Packers should have won that playoff game, but a trick play and botched on-side kick cost them big time.
Score prediction: New England 30 – 24

Seahawk's luck finally runs out on probably the WORST call I've ever seen.
Seahawk fans must be in shock :bang:
Who ever called that final Seahawk play should be fired!

Congrats to the Patriots and to Tom Brady winning his 4th Superbowl! Way to GO!!!! :jump:

[Clocker]

Okay... I tell you, mine was a stroke of genius.

I bet $11 on the Seahawks. LOL - I never win football bets.

Best $11 I ever lost.

I am now down like $33 for the decade.

Thanks what you get for playing the chalk. :p

[Stillriledup]

I was thinking Belichick was being dumb for not calling Timeout with 50 seconds left, they put themselves in a position where if seattle scores the game was over, no way Brady would have done anything with 18 seconds left, just not enough time....but in doing so, he made CARROLL think that he didnt have enough time and that's maybe why Peter threw a pass.....Pete didnt realize he had one time out and he had a shot to run Lynch......Pete out-thunk himself and got cute, he figured that he could throw a pass there because new England would expect the run, but once you run Lynch, if you dont make it and then call TO, the next play HAS to be a pass and Pete didn't want to get into too predictable of a situation.

I think that predictable or not, if you pride yourself on a smash mouth brand of football and you have beast mode, you have to go to your best player in that situation and make them stop it.

Belichick might have been the biggest genius ever to let that clock run down....Carroll panicked and choked when it got down to 20 seconds even though he had plenty of time.

-qN3MlBSj0I

[thaskalos]

The worst thing about the Super Bowl is that the losing bettors have no chance to get even. :)

NE deserved to win...but that last play was hard to believe.

[MutuelClerk]

That call made Jim Joyce look good.

[pandy]

I wish they would have given the MVP to Edelman, he played a great game. But, Brady came through in the clutch again.

If they had faked a run to Lynch on that last play Wilson probably could have run it in himself easily and it would've been a much safer play, they would have been converging on Lynch. That rookie read the play beautifully, great play by him.

[Grits]

great show, couldn't BELIEVE how high they lifted her on that tiny platform..........but poor sound quality really marred the musical element

MM, sound quality was horrible, indeed. But Seattle's decision not to get the ball to Marshawn was about 1000% worse. Carroll could barely speak, accepting the blame. Doesn't help Seattle though. ... Glad for friends in Boston.

Blacklist is back after hiatus. ;)

[Stillriledup]

The worst thing about the Super Bowl is that the losing bettors have no chance to get even. :)

NE deserved to win...but that last play was hard to believe.

Pats played very hard, Edelman took massive shot at midfield, was probably concussed and kept playing showing tons of grit in the 2nd half, Brady was intense he really wanted to win, too bad it had to end on that play....if New England won stopping Lynch at the 1 yard line it would have felt like they WON the game and Seattle didn't just hand them the win. It feels like Seattle gave them a Charity you know what at the end there, too bad it had to end that way.

[RXB]

If they had faked a run to Lynch on that last play Wilson probably could have run it in himself easily and it would've been a much safer play, they would have been converging on Lynch. That rookie read the play beautifully, great play by him.

I agree, the slant was probably not the optimal play call choice... but then I think of all of the boneheaded handicapping & wagering decisions I've made in my life, and it all seems so much more understandable...

They're the best players & coaches but still human. New England played 29.5 minutes of mostly excellent/dominant football in the first half and basically squandered it with 30 seconds of atrocious defence. It happens.

Incredibly entertaining game. New England must've been having Tyree flashbacks after the Kearse play.

[Dark Horse]

What a crazy way to throw a Superbowl away. After the miracle comeback against the Packers, and the miracle catch on the final drive that set it up perfectly, how do you not get Destiny in the end zone with Lynch on your team? Not that it matters one bit, but the Patriots didn't win that game; the Seahawks lost it.

[Stillriledup]

What a crazy way to throw a Superbowl away. After the miracle comeback against the Packers, and the miracle catch on the final drive that set it up perfectly, how do you not get Destiny in the end zone with Lynch on your team? Not that it matters one bit, but the Patriots didn't win that game; the Seahawks lost it.

Its like brain dead stuff, and Wilson just blindly listened to that playcall and ran it instead of calling time out and coming over and saying "are you sure you dont want to run marshawn?"

Lots of blame to go around.

[Dark Horse]

Its like brain dead stuff, and Wilson just blindly listened to that playcall and ran it instead of calling time out and coming over and saying "are you sure you dont want to run marshawn?"

Lots of blame to go around.


That would have been their final timeout, which makes it harder to get two running plays in, if that was necessary. They wasted two timeouts on that final drive. With 20/20 hindsight vision that lack of discipline cost them.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thanks what you get for playing the chalk.

LOL - It was a match race, Clocker.

The longshot was 10-11.

[ReplayRandall]

What a crazy way to throw a Superbowl away. After the miracle comeback against the Packers, and the miracle catch on the final drive that set it up perfectly, how do you not get Destiny in the end zone with Lynch on your team? Not that it matters one bit, but the Patriots didn't win that game; the Seahawks lost it.

Packers fans felt the same way, their team lost it, the Seahawks didn't win it.......Pack will come back, Seahawks won't.

[Stillriledup]

LOL - It was a match race, Clocker.

The longshot was 10-11.

Exactly, there's no "chalk" both teams are equally favored at bet 11 to win 10.

[Clocker]

Exactly, there's no "chalk" both teams are equally favored at bet 11 to win 10.

Dude, it was a joke. :rolleyes:

[Rookies]

I was thinking Belichick was being dumb for not calling Timeout with 50 seconds left, they put themselves in a position where if seattle scores the game was over, no way Brady would have done anything with 18 seconds left, just not enough time....but in doing so, he made CARROLL think that he didnt have enough time and that's maybe why Peter threw a pass.....Pete didnt realize he had one time out and he had a shot to run Lynch......Pete out-thunk himself and got cute, he figured that he could throw a pass there because new England would expect the run, but once you run Lynch, if you dont make it and then call TO, the next play HAS to be a pass and Pete didn't want to get into too predictable of a situation.

I think that predictable or not, if you pride yourself on a smash mouth brand of football and you have beast mode, you have to go to your best player in that situation and make them stop it.

Belichick might have been the biggest genius ever to let that clock run down....Carroll panicked and choked when it got down to 20 seconds even though he had plenty of time.

-qN3MlBSj0I

Excellent observations. Carroll FUBARed himself with the worst call ever and perhaps, because of Bellichik.

That being said, what was worse was for NE not to stop the clock 3 x on 1st and goal. It would have given Brady one minute to get into FG range, even with the extra thinking of letting them score on 2nd down.

A bizarre ending to several bizarre plays- but wildly entertaining and since I'd bet the Patsies before the Playoffs began, was hapoy! :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Excellent observations. Carroll FUBARed himself with the worst call ever and perhaps, because of Bellichik.

That being said, what was worse was for NE not to stop the clock 3 x on 1st and goal. It would have given Brady one minute to get into FG range, even with the extra thinking of letting them score on 2nd down.

A bizarre ending to several bizarre plays- but wildly entertaining and since I'd bet the Patsies before the Playoffs began, was hapoy! :ThmbUp:

If Beast mode runs that ball in for a TD, Belichick gets roundly criticized for letting the clock run down. I texted someone that if Brady has 30 seconds or more, he zips down and gets into FG range, their kicker was booming the ball he could have made one from 60, they just had to get to Seattle's 45 to have a shot and with 40 or 50 seconds left, there's a great chance they do it.

[Dark Horse]

Packers fans felt the same way, their team lost it, the Seahawks didn't win it.......Pack will come back, Seahawks won't.

The Packers turned into soft jelly when it mattered most. That's on the players. The Seahawks offensive coordinator called a bad play. That's on the coaching staff. They had at least two plays left for Lynch to get that final yard-and-a-half. A no-brainer. But I won't lose any sleep over it. You just don't expect a good game to end on such a fluke.

[Secondbest]

Heard Pete Carroll's explanation didn' t make sense .worst play call I've ever seen in a big game.But give the pats credit they were prepared and the db recognized the route and jumped it.

[banacek]

The Seahawks punter John Ryan is getting a lot of twitter feed. In the introductions he said John Ryan, University of Regina. (That's actually my alma mater!). Apparently a great many people thought he said something else.

[Rookies]

Heard Pete Carroll's explanation didn' t make sense .worst play call I've ever seen in a big game.But give the pats credit they were prepared and the db recognized the route and jumped it.

Completely agree.

Imagine. Expecting the Beast to blast it in, but having the huge stones to think beyond it and come through the middle to pick it- likely the only way the Pats win.

That was a superb, intelligent football play. :ThmbUp:

[ReplayRandall]

The Packers turned into soft jelly when it mattered most. That's on the players. The Seahawks offensive coordinator called a bad play. That's on the coaching staff. They had at least two plays left for Lynch to get that final yard-and-a-half. A no-brainer. But I won't lose any sleep over it. You just don't expect a good game to end on such a fluke.
Team of DESTINY, deflate-gate, spy-gate, Tyree catch and Hernandez, The New England Patriots.....Sleep well Seahawk fans.

[Dark Horse]

Carroll doesn't call the plays. Bevell does.

[RXB]

Close game as it figured to be but on merit I think the Patriots deserved the narrow win. They were the better team for most of the first half and also in the fourth quarter. Probably they were having Tyree flashbacks after the Kearse play; looked like they were going to get beat by another wild catch.

[Secondbest]

Heard Carroll again.Call makes more sense since they only had 1timeout.But still.2 shots with lynch 1 yard.Bad call Pete.No matter Db still has to see the play jump it Catch it hold it. Bad call but great defense and great preparation.

[RXB]

Heard Carroll again.Call makes more sense since they only had 1timeout.But still.2 shots with lynch 1 yard.Bad call Pete.No matter Db still has to see the play jump it Catch it hold it. Bad call but great defense and great preparation.

Haven't heard him speak but I suspect the reasoning was to get three shots at it if necessary: pass on 2nd down, it's a TD or incomplete, run/pass option on 3rd down, if you get stuffed on a run you can still call timeout and have another crack on 4th down.

Unfortunately for them, there was a third potential result on the pass, and that's what happened.

[ReplayRandall]

Just like my pick 4-5-6's, great planning but bad execution.. :cool:

[RXB]

Just like my pick 4-5-6's, great planning but bad execution.. :cool:

Yes, racetrackers should always have a great deal of empathy for others whose good ideas have gone bad.

Like an old Boris Badunov/Natasha exchange after Bullwinkle unwittingly ruins part of their plan:

"Boris, darling, I thought you said this hiding place was foolproof!!"

"Fool-proof, yes. Idiot-proof, no."

[Maximillion]

Nice job in the booth by Michaels and Collinsworth.
Cant say ive been a big CC fan, but he was real quick picking up on things during the course of the game, and as an analyst he is miles ahead of Simms and Aikman imo.

[cj's dad]

NE has to be the beneficiary of the most non- calls in the league. NE scores to move within 3 -points @ 24-21. Seattle wide receiver on 3rd and 10(?) is tripped up by a falling Pats DB which causes the WR to fall and miss the ball and there is no call-nada-nil-zilch !! If awarded the 1st down who knows wdat happens from that point forward ?

[RXB]

NE has to be the beneficiary of the most non- calls in the league. NE scores to move within 3 -points @ 24-21. Seattle wide receiver on 3rd and 10(?) is tripped up by a falling Pats DB which causes the WR to fall and miss the ball and there is no call-nada-nil-zilch !! If awarded the 1st down who knows wdat happens from that point forward ?

Seattle WR got away with an obvious two-handed pushoff on a long pass play that set up a FG. The referee botched the call on an obvious roughing-the-punter by Seattle on the very first series. Neither team got any particular advantage from the officials' mistakes when all was said and done.

[Stillriledup]

NE has to be the beneficiary of the most non- calls in the league. NE scores to move within 3 -points @ 24-21. Seattle wide receiver on 3rd and 10(?) is tripped up by a falling Pats DB which causes the WR to fall and miss the ball and there is no call-nada-nil-zilch !! If awarded the 1st down who knows wdat happens from that point forward ?

Two words: Pro Wrestling.

How can you take this league seriously as anything more than scripted entertainment.

[Stillriledup]

Seattle WR got away with an obvious two-handed pushoff on a long pass play that set up a FG. The referee botched the call on an obvious roughing-the-punter by Seattle on the very first series. Neither team got any particular advantage from the officials' mistakes when all was said and done.

Certain plays are bigger than others as the game progresses. Seattle needed a "Drive" at some point and that "trip" that wasn't called would have given them good field position as well as maybe some momentum...it was at a point in the game where New England NEEDED that to not be called. Their success was hanging on by a thread and any little thing against them at this point in the game could have been a backbreaker.

[RXB]

Certain plays are bigger than others as the game progresses. Seattle needed a "Drive" at some point and that "trip" that wasn't called would have given them good field position as well as maybe some momentum...it was at a point in the game where New England NEEDED that to not be called. Their success was hanging on by a thread and any little thing against them at this point in the game could have been a backbreaker.

Nonsense, as usual.

[cj's dad]

Nonsense, as usual.

Not really. The referees are in bed with the league(the league does pay them and hire/fire and fine them) It was very necessary for the Pats to be rehabilitated in the eyes of the public after yet another transgression. What better way than for NE to win SB EXELLVEEEYEEX ?

[Robert Fischer]

NE has to be the beneficiary of the most non- calls in the league. NE scores to move within 3 -points @ 24-21. Seattle wide receiver on 3rd and 10(?) is tripped up by a falling Pats DB which causes the WR to fall and miss the ball and there is no call-nada-nil-zilch !! If awarded the 1st down who knows what happens from that point forward ?

Seems(anecdotal at least) that I've happened to notice a bunch of these types of non-calls lately.

The Referees and the Announcers claim ignorance.

"Oh... their feet just got tangled up..."
"He simply tripped over the fallen defender..."

etc...

The whole idea for non-calls in those situations are supposed to be based upon the times when 'inadvertent' contact occurs.
When there's a mutual slip-up.

However, when a defender falls, or carelessly runs over the feet of the wide receiver, 'intent' should never come into play.

It's either pass interference, defensive holding etc.. or it isn't.
Does not matter if it was an accident.

[badcompany]

Haven't heard him speak but I suspect the reasoning was to get three shots at it if necessary: pass on 2nd down, it's a TD or incomplete, run/pass option on 3rd down, if you get stuffed on a run you can still call timeout and have another crack on 4th down.

Unfortunately for them, there was a third potential result on the pass, and that's what happened.

If they wanted to get cute, they could've bootlegged Wilson. Either he gets in the end zone or out of bounds..

Putting the ball in the air was idiotic and they got what they deserved.

[Valuist]

I like Wilson, and he did not make one big mistake on the final drive. He made THREE. One of my biggest QB pet peeves is wasting timeouts when the play clock is running down. There's a few instances when its warranted; on a 3rd and 1 or 2 for the first down. Or if the 5 yards is going to put out of the FG kicker's range. But most of the time, the 5 yards is not worth it. Especially in the final 2 minutes of the game. Since most QBs do it, its accepted. The Seahawks wasted two timeouts on the final drive, and no question this came back to haunt them. No doubt they felt the ticking clock winding down; I'm sure Bevell just figured if they didn't score the TD, the incomplete pass would stop the clock. With a full set of timeouts, they give the ball to Lynch.

[pandy]

I like Wilson, and he did not make one big mistake on the final drive. He made THREE. One of my biggest QB pet peeves is wasting timeouts when the play clock is running down. There's a few instances when its warranted; on a 3rd and 1 or 2 for the first down. Or if the 5 yards is going to put out of the FG kicker's range. But most of the time, the 5 yards is not worth it. Especially in the final 2 minutes of the game. Since most QBs do it, its accepted. The Seahawks wasted two timeouts on the final drive, and no question this came back to haunt them. No doubt they felt the ticking clock winding down; I'm sure Bevell just figured if they didn't score the TD, the incomplete pass would stop the clock. With a full set of timeouts, they give the ball to Lynch.


Good point, it wasn't good time management. On the last play, another good choice besides the obvious hand off to Lynch would have been a fake to Lynch and then Wilson probably could have run in for the TD. Wilson rushed for over 800 yards this year.

[pandy]

If they wanted to get cute, they could've bootlegged Wilson. Either he gets in the end zone or out of bounds..

Putting the ball in the air was idiotic and they got what they deserved.

I thought the same thing, a bootleg off a fake to Lynch is a high percentage play there, the defense has to gang up on Lynch since he's so hard to stop.

[badcompany]

I like Wilson, and he did not make one big mistake on the final drive. He made THREE. One of my biggest QB pet peeves is wasting timeouts when the play clock is running down. There's a few instances when its warranted; on a 3rd and 1 or 2 for the first down. Or if the 5 yards is going to put out of the FG kicker's range. But most of the time, the 5 yards is not worth it. Especially in the final 2 minutes of the game. Since most QBs do it, its accepted. The Seahawks wasted two timeouts on the final drive, and no question this came back to haunt them. No doubt they felt the ticking clock winding down; I'm sure Bevell just figured if they didn't score the TD, the incomplete pass would stop the clock. With a full set of timeouts, they give the ball to Lynch.

Excellent analysis. Clock management is very underrated considering how many outcomes it decides, and it doesn't get much worse than this.

Seattle had the ball at midfield at the 2 min warning; at the 1 yard line with 1:06 to go. Yet; they had to make a decision based on time considerations.

Not only was the pass play idiotic, but it took FORTY SECONDS to get off.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/fb3eec7a7f480526b5a7f0f94b5efeee_zpsff2fceb0.jpg

[Valuist]

I agree a Wilson rollout/bootleg would've been a good option.

Another point. Michaels and Collingsworth were already talking about NE "letting" the Seahawks score, ala Bradshaw vs NE, or Denver vs GB back in late 90s, so Brady could have a little time to get them into FG range. Can never assume anything is going to happen.

[lamboguy]

offensive lines is what wins and loses most superbowl's and the Patriots line sure as hell showed up except for the one guy that was getting through every play in the 3rd quarter.

the game was great except for the officiating they blew lots of calls on both sides of the ball. every offensive play for the Seahawks could have been a holding call, they also got generous spots on the ball the Patriots got away with a big one where the defensive back grabbed the guys foot and took him down, if that guy catches the ball its a touchdown. the officials were letting the boys play and one would have thought that would have made the Seahawks winner's but it didn't.

at the end of the game, Belichek wouldn't call time out and that is probably what won them the game at that point, the Seahawks got lucky with the reception and got nervous and blew the game. anyone can debate the play call of a pass, if Lynch was good enough all year, they should have stuck with him. that was an over coached play call, but i remember year ago when the Cowboys had a yard to go for the championship win against the Packers and couldn't get in on 4 tries.

the other thing in this game was the Pats were more of a physical team than the Seahawks, they were hitting hard as hell and 2 key players were out for the game. they played just like the Ravens would have and i think they would have beaten the Seahawks as well.

the game was played sort of like i thought it would except i never expected that many passing plays from the Pats, i honestly thought they were going to run the ball down the Seahawks throats. the Seahawks stopped the run but became very vulnerable to the best part of the Pats game, the passing attack. the Seahawks just couldn't stop both and Belichek out coached the other team start to finish.

[Valuist]

offensive lines is what wins and loses most superbowl's and the Patriots line sure as hell showed up except for the one guy that was getting through every play in the 3rd quarter.

the game was great except for the officiating they blew lots of calls on both sides of the ball. every offensive play for the Seahawks could have been a holding call, they also got generous spots on the ball the Patriots got away with a big one where the defensive back grabbed the guys foot and took him down, if that guy catches the ball its a touchdown. the officials were letting the boys play and one would have thought that would have made the Seahawks winner's but it didn't.

at the end of the game, Belichek wouldn't call time out and that is probably what won them the game at that point, the Seahawks got lucky with the reception and got nervous and blew the game. anyone can debate the play call of a pass, if Lynch was good enough all year, they should have stuck with him. that was an over coached play call, but i remember year ago when the Cowboys had a yard to go for the championship win against the Packers and couldn't get in on 4 tries.

the other thing in this game was the Pats were more of a physical team than the Seahawks, they were hitting hard as hell and 2 key players were out for the game. they played just like the Ravens would have and i think they would have beaten the Seahawks as well.

the game was played sort of like i thought it would except i never expected that many passing plays from the Pats, i honestly thought they were going to run the ball down the Seahawks throats. the Seahawks stopped the run but became very vulnerable to the best part of the Pats game, the passing attack. the Seahawks just couldn't stop both and Belichek out coached the other team start to finish.

I disagree with the assertion that New England was more physical. Seattle outrushed them by a big margin; 162 to 57. New England threw for more yardage but Seattle, despite the poor start, had more total yards than New England. Most of the NE passing yards came on dinks and dunks, in which Brady got rid of the ball so quickly that there couldn't be a pass rush. Brady threw for 328 but needed 50 attempts to do so. 6.5 yards per pass is kind of mediocre.

[lamboguy]

maybe the game was different on television than it was in person. i saw 2 guys for Seattle go down and both never came back in. i didn't see anyone for the Patriots not return to the game except for Hytower and he came back in for the second half.

Lynch is a great runner and tough to take down, you can't stop him the whole game, you can only try to contain him, that is what it looks like the Patriots did.
even though if i had been the coach for the Seahawks at the end of the game i would have given the ball to Lynch, but he didn't have to get in the endzone. the coaching staff thought they were going to catch the defense by surprise and get the winning touchdown with a pass.

at the end of the day the big winner's to this game were the odd's maker's. they had this as a flip of the coin and the game could have gone either way. of course the sportsbooks took down all the money in this game because bettors seem to get it wrong most of the time. Bill Walter's got it right though from what i hear, he got plenty of money from what these big bettors lost. a friend of mine was in a Vegas Casino and watched guys come in with suitcases full of money betting on the Seahawks, and then the line moved and the Billy Walter's runners went in and took the Patriot's as an underdog. Walter's got the big money money and the casino's got the vig and a little more.

[MutuelClerk]

I think Lane getting hurt on his interception return really hurt the Seahawks. Why didn't he just take the touchback? Edelman really took the game over after he went out. Speaking of Edelman I thought he deserved the MVP. He played hard. But if NE won Brady was getting the MVP no matter what.

[NJ Stinks]

A few points:

1. The Most Valuable Player in the game had to be Malcom Butler.

2. Neither team was "better" than the other team last night. In fact, I think it's fair to say that bettors were either on the right side of Lady Luck or wrong side of Lady Luck when it came to picking a side to win/cover.

3. Having bet the Seahawks and under last night, I attribute both losses to over-estimating Seattle's ability to tackle Patriot receivers after the catch.

[badcompany]

A few points:

1. The Most Valuable Player in the game had to be Malcom Butler.

2. Neither team was "better" than the other team last night. In fact, I think it's fair to say that bettors were either on the right side of Lady Luck or wrong side of Lady Luck when it came to picking a side to win/cover.

3. Having bet the Seahawks and under last night, I attribute both losses to over-estimating Seattle's ability to tackle Patriot receivers after the catch.

Agree on all counts.

I would add that the Seahawks didn't put the Pats away when they were down. The score stayed at 24-14 for a while. Had Seattle padded the lead, they would've put some pressure on the Pats offense, but Brady was never in a position where he had to force anything.

[PhantomOnTour]

Edelman should have won the MVP - they could not cover him or tackle him.
9 catches for over 100yds and the game winning TD catch.

[thaskalos]

Brady came up big on several long-yardage 3rd downs late in the game...while the Seattle defense was caught napping a couple of times, when they had a linebacker covering Gronk one-on-one on obvious pass situations.

I thought NE was the better team yesterday, and they deserved to win...botched play at the end notwithstanding. It took a miracle play to get Seattle that deep to begin with...and "miracles" should not be repeat occurences. Even Lazarus was only resurrected once.

[pandy]

Edelman should have won the MVP - they could not cover him or tackle him.
9 catches for over 100yds and the game winning TD catch.


Exactly what I thought. And, as my son pointed out, on one play, after he was tackled, he struggled to get up and appeared to have some sort of head injury, but he did not go to the sidelines. The rule is, if you go to the sidelines with an apparent head injury you can't re-enter unless you're checked out by the doctor. Edelman is a tough cookie.

[pandy]

Brady came up big on several long-yardage 3rd downs late in the game...while the Seattle defense was caught napping a couple of times, when they had a linebacker covering Gronk one-on-one on obvious pass situations.

I thought NE was the better team yesterday, and they deserved to win...botched play at the end notwithstanding. It took a miracle play to get Seattle that deep to begin with...and "miracles" should not be repeat occurences. Even Lazarus was only resurrected once.


Agree. Although I don't think they were napping, they were tired. At halftime, I told my son, the Seahawks defense will be exhausted in the 4th quarter. That's what Brady and the Patriots do, they wear out defenses with their no huddle offense.

Another advantage that NE had, Brady calls his own plays. Wilson rarely calls an audible, his plays are sent in. I guess I'm old school, but I'll take Brady over any offensive coordinator or head coach any day. Brady would not have run the play that lost the game for Seattle, he would have changed the play.

[pandy]

Some people are saying that Belichick should have called time out so he would have time to score if Seahawks scored. Well, if he did, the Seahawks would be celebrating today. They snapped the ball with 26 seconds left. If they run the ball and get stopped, they use their last time out and it's third down, and they have to pass. Belichick made the right move.

[cj]

I agree a Wilson rollout/bootleg would've been a good option.

Another point. Michaels and Collingsworth were already talking about NE "letting" the Seahawks score, ala Bradshaw vs NE, or Denver vs GB back in late 90s, so Brady could have a little time to get them into FG range. Can never assume anything is going to happen.


When the other team needs a TD to win, letting them score is moronic in my opinion. If the Patriots were anywhere from up 2 to down 1, I agree, let them score, but not in any other case.

[cj]

I read that Lynch had 5 tries this year from the one resulting in one TD, two no gains, and two losses.

[pandy]

I read that Lynch had 5 tries this year from the one resulting in one TD, two no gains, and two losses.


Yeah, people think it's so easy but the Patriots would have had all 11 guys stacked two deep on the line of scrimmage. That's why the best percentage play is a bootleg or bootleg/read option. If Wilson doesn't think he can run it in, he can pass or throw it away.

[pandy]

Exactly what I thought. And, as my son pointed out, on one play, after he was tackled, he struggled to get up and appeared to have some sort of head injury, but he did not go to the sidelines. The rule is, if you go to the sidelines with an apparent head injury you can't re-enter unless you're checked out by the doctor. Edelman is a tough cookie.


I just found out that Edelman did go to the sidelines and was checked for a concussion.

[cj's dad]

Had the pass play worked, Carroll would have been declared a genius. CJ is correct, ML carrying previously in a similar situation had a 20% success rate.
Cris Carter explained this morning that it was poor execution of the play called and not the call itself. Had the 'Hawks ran the ball twice and both failed the same moans and groans would be loud and sustained.

[Teach]

Post Mortem:

I'm happy cuz Patriots won. I've lived in Boston area most of my life. Thought Pats were in trouble when down 10 going into fourth quarter. Yet, Brady's a gamer. One major thought:

Seattle receiver, Lockette, did not vigorously contend for the football. He appeared almost lackadaisical. He had bulk (size), height advantage over Malcolm Butler. Got outwrestled. If you can't make catch (or think you might not) don't let other guy make it. Lockette failed to do that. In fact I thought Lockette had the inside track over Butler when ball thrown. Couldn't believe Butler came up make up with interception.

[thaskalos]

I read that Lynch had 5 tries this year from the one resulting in one TD, two no gains, and two losses.
It isn't that a pass play is a bad choice in that situation; Brady himself would probably pass from the one as well...with 30 seconds left and only one timeout. But why run an inside pattern like that...when so many things could go wrong? The ball didn't need to get intercepted like it was; it could have easily been tipped in the air. Is that what you want in the endzone? You got the most mobile quarterback in the league, for heaven's sake. Roll out, and look for a receiver along the sidelines...and throw the ball where only he could have a chance of coming down with it.

[Secondbest]

Let's not forget the" Legion of Boom" gave up a 14 pt lead in the 4th quarter.The biggest blown lead in super bowl history.Brady 13-15 and untouched.

[thaskalos]

Let's not forget the" Legion of Boom" gave up a 14 pt lead in the 4th quarter.The biggest blown lead in super bowl history.Brady 13-15 and untouched.
It was a 10-pt lead.

[RXB]

I thought NE was the better team yesterday, and they deserved to win...botched play at the end notwithstanding. It took a miracle play to get Seattle that deep to begin with...and "miracles" should not be repeat occurences. Even Lazarus was only resurrected once.

I agree. The final score matched the overall play. A narrow Patriots' victory seemed like the just result when all was said and done.

[Teach]

That last play. Seconds remaining. Run or Pass. I've looked at it from two angles: front and back. I'd love to see a side shot of the interception. Was. I repeat: Was there pass interference? Could it have been challenged? I thought every play in the last two minutes... Seattle was stunned; the Patriots ecstatic. Did the Seahawks get lost in the moment? Did Butler interfere with Lockette? I've watched it over and over again? There was a similar play in a 1968 college football game between Harvard and Yale. The game ended in a tie: 29-29. Huge Harvard comeback. On a two-point conversion Harvard end Pete Varney was apparently interfered with by a Yale defender. Pass was incomplete. But wait. A flag. Pass interference. That Pass interference looked tamer (the Eli defender reached for the ball) than Butler's grab off Lockette. Could Lockette have been interfered with? I though Butler made contact when the ball was still in the air. Slowed it up. Slowed it up. Watched it dozens of times. There was definitely contact. Enough to call P.I. I couldn't say. In any event, a moot point.

[ReplayRandall]

Bottom-line, the sooner the NFL puts this season in the rear-view mirror, the better.... :blush:

[banacek]

It was a 10-pt lead.

And I heard that was a record! In the previous 48 Superbowls the greatest 'comeback' was 7 points? That was surprising to me.

[Secondbest]

It was a 10-pt lead.
Your right.

[thaskalos]

That last play. Seconds remaining. Run or Pass. I've looked at it from two angles: front and back. I'd love to see a side shot of the interception. Was. I repeat: Was there pass interference? Could it have been challenged? I thought every play in the last two minutes... Seattle was stunned; the Patriots ecstatic. Did the Seahawks get lost in the moment? Did Butler interfere with Lockette? I've watched it over and over again? There was a similar play in a 1968 college football game between Harvard and Yale. The game ended in a tie: 29-29. Huge Harvard comeback. On a two-point conversion Harvard end Pete Varney was apparently interfered with by a Yale defender. Pass was incomplete. But wait. A flag. Pass interference. That Pass interference looked tamer (the Eli defender reached for the ball) than Butler's grab off Lockette. Could Lockette have been interfered with? I though Butler made contact when the ball was still in the air. Slowed it up. Slowed it up. Watched it dozens of times. There was definitely contact. Enough to call P.I. I couldn't say. In any event, a moot point.

Isn't the defender allowed to make contact with the receiver within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage? Or do the rules change when the ball is close to the goal line?

[Clocker]

The Seahawks coach that called the pass play explains why, and suggests that the receiver could have put a little more effort into fighting for the ball: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/seahawks-coach-called-pass-one-141210257.html

[Teach]

thaskalos,

I believe the defender is allowed to make contact, but I question if the defender can make that contact while the ball is in the air and headed in the direction of the offensive player that the pass is intended for.

[raybo]

I had no dog in this fight, and didn't even watch the game, but after watching the interception reruns several times, it certainly looked like there should have been an interference penalty. The receiver was between the QB and the defender and just before the ball arrived, there was a collision and the receiver was no longer between the QB and the defender, who appeared to catch the ball completely clean. My question is how does he catch the ball clean unless the receiver was interfered with?

Regardless, a pass is ill advised in that situation, and if you do, and you lose because it's intercepted, you probably deserve to lose.

[RXB]

thaskalos,

I believe the defender is allowed to make contact, but I question if the defender can make that contact while the ball is in the air and headed in the direction of the offensive player that the pass is intended for.

The defender has as much right as the receiver to go for the ball, and as much right to his position. Lockette is slightly in front of Butler but Butler has the inside position and his body is more in line with the throw than Lockette's. So Lockette ran into Butler as much as the other way around.

I snapped this screenshot, just as the two were coming together.

[Teach]

RXB,

I agree. I believe the defender has the right to go for the ball as much as the intended receiver. However, in the process of going for the ball, did the defender interfere with the receiver in the process? A judgment call. The only thing that's clear to me is that Ricardo Lockette did not aggressively try to catch the pass. Maybe, he didn't expect Butler.

[RXB]

Like I said, Lockette ran into him as much as the other way around. From the rear camera view, Butler very clearly turned his shoulders to avoid contact with Lockette. Butler established a direction and position that entitled him to the ball as much as Lockette had.

One more thing: Kearse was inexplicably largely blamed for Wilson's four INT's last week. (Only one of the four was Kearse's fault.) This time, Lockette is being blamed-- but the fact is that Wilson threw the ball to a spot where there was a chance for a defender to make a play on it. If the ball is thrown 12 inches farther to the right, Butler has no play on it without having to go through Lockette's established position... and then it is PI if there's contact.

[burnsy]

BBB...Bad, Beat, Burnsy. Everything looked good.....until the last 20 seconds. Woke up with quite a hangover. Then watched the Pope of Greenwich Village , Paulie makes me feel smarter.........than I really am....

[thaskalos]

Seattle down 14-7, on fourth down and 6 seconds left, with the ball at the NE 5-yard line...and Bevell goes unorthodox and throws for the touchdown instead of taking the sure 3 points...which is what any other coach would have done. Could it be that he fell too much in love with his "ballsy" play-calling...and decided to again prove to us how smart he really is?

[RXB]

Seattle down 14-7, on fourth down and 6 seconds left, with the ball at the NE 5-yard line...and Bevell goes unorthodox and throws for the touchdown instead of taking the sure 3 points...which is what any other coach would have done. Could it be that he fell too much in love with his "ballsy" play-calling...and decided to again prove to us how smart he really is?

The play call might've been Bevell's but the decision to take the shot was Carroll's. The HC makes those decisions, not the OC.

[thaskalos]

The play call might've been Bevell's but the decision to take the shot was Carroll's. The HC makes those decisions, not the OC.

So?

[RXB]

What do you mean, so?

and Bevell goes unorthodox and throws for the touchdown instead of taking the sure 3 points

That's not Bevell's decision.

[Teach]

Let's face it...the Seahawks made an ill-advised decision. As a local high school football coach used to say: "There are three bad things that can happen when you try to throw a pass. One, it can get intercepted; Two, it can fall incomplete; and Three, the quarterback can get sacked." Yes, you can complete the pass for a gain or a touchdown. Personally, I would have run "The Beast," Lynch, or had the quarterback run around in the backfield, either looking for an opening to run for a TD, or spotting an open receiver resulting from his running around.

[thaskalos]

What do you mean, so?

and Bevell goes unorthodox and throws for the touchdown instead of taking the sure 3 points

That's not Bevell's decision.

I said "so" because I don't see what your reply has to do with the post that I submitted. Bevell calls the offensive plays -- there is no "might" about it -- and Carroll could either accept or reject them. That's how it is with MOST teams.

My point was that the success of the unorthodox play at the end of the half might have influenced the unorthodox play selection that ended the game...regardless of who actually made the "decision" to run it.

Don't you think that I know that the head coach makes the actual "decisions"? Didn't I specify "play-calling" in my post?

[RXB]

I can't imagine how anyone could read your original post as anything other than suggesting that it was Bevell's decision to take at shot at the end zone of the half rather than Carroll's. But whatever.

[thaskalos]

I can't imagine how anyone could read your original post as anything other than suggesting that it was Bevell's decision to take at shot at the end zone of the half rather than Carroll's. But whatever.

Bevell took responsibility for the game's last play. "I call the plays. I make the calls. Coach Carroll can tell me to do something different and we communicate, we talk, but I make all the play calls"...Bevell said after the game. THAT'S why I attributed the play selection to Bevell. I could just as easily have said Carroll. In fact...it would have been EASIER for me to say "Carroll"...because I wasn't sure how Bevell spelled his name...and I had to look it up.

Again...that wasn't the point I was trying to make. I was just suggesting that the play-caller of the last Seattle play of the first half might have gotten a little carried away with the success of that play...and went the unorthodox route again at game's end.

[Dark Horse]

I have to laugh at ESPN's post game analysts and their full dedication to 20/20 hindsight. If that play works, Pete Carroll is a genius two-time Superbowl winner. Now he's an idiot who will forever be haunted by it. Reminds me of that onside kick by the Saints in the Superbowl. It worked and Payton was the gutsiest coach ever for trying it. If it doesn't work and they lose the game the analysts do a complete 180. The same goes for Brady. Now he's the best ever. But if they don't get the miracle interception (which has nothing to do with Brady), he's the dumbass who threw two stupid interceptions.

This was the first interception from the one yard line all season. What are the odds? That's the question that matters. They would have planned one pass, one rush (followed by either TD or timeout), and one last rush or pass. So by passing at this point, they had two potential runs left. If, on the other hand, they had ran it here, and came up short, it remained to be seen how much time was left on the clock. From that perspective the pass on this play, with two plays left, was the correct option.

By typical standards a two turnover advantage should have translated into a win for the Seahawks. And that does hold up, because the W turned into a L only when the turnover differential was cut in half.

[lamboguy]

just to show you how much respect the odds makers have the Seahawks, they just made them co-favorites to win the 2016 superbowl with the Pats at 5-1

[thaskalos]

I have to laugh at ESPN's post game analysts and their full dedication to 20/20 hindsight. If that play works, Pete Carroll is a genius two-time Superbowl winner. Now he's an idiot who will forever be haunted by it. Reminds me of that onside kick by the Saints in the Superbowl. It worked and Payton was the gutsiest coach ever for trying it. If it doesn't work and they lose the game the analysts do a complete 180. The same goes for Brady. Now he's the best ever. But if they don't get the miracle interception (which has nothing to do with Brady), he's the dumbass who threw two stupid interceptions.

This was the first interception from the one yard line all season. What are the odds? That's the question that matters. They would have planned one pass, one rush (followed by either TD or timeout), and one last rush or pass. So by passing at this point, they had two potential runs left. If, on the other hand, they had ran it here, and came up short, it remained to be seen how much time was left on the clock. From that perspective the pass on this play, with two plays left, was the correct option.

By typical standards a two turnover advantage should have translated into a win for the Seahawks. And that does hold up, because the W turned into a L only when the turnover differential was cut in half.

Wait a minute now. The Seahawks had a "two turnover edge", while being down by 4 and receiving a kickoff after a touchdown...with 2:05 left in the game. I got a hunch that, statistically, this particular scenario is not as impressive as you make it sound.

[thaskalos]

just to show you how much respect the odds makers have the Seahawks, they just made them co-favorites to win the 2016 superbowl with the Pats at 5-1

I would have thought that this shows more respect for NE. Won't Brady be nearing 50 next year?

[ReplayRandall]

just to show you how much respect the odds makers have the Seahawks, they just made them co-favorites to win the 2016 superbowl with the Pats at 5-1

Neither one of them are going back......5-1 sucker bets..

[thaskalos]

Neither one of them are going back......5-1 sucker bets..

Baltimore? :)

[ReplayRandall]

Baltimore? :)

Hmmm....Baltimore Ravens and a real dark horse, the St. Louis Rams......Get them odds while there hot... :cool:

[burnsy]

Seattle down 14-7, on fourth down and 6 seconds left, with the ball at the NE 5-yard line...and Bevell goes unorthodox and throws for the touchdown instead of taking the sure 3 points...which is what any other coach would have done. Could it be that he fell too much in love with his "ballsy" play-calling...and decided to again prove to us how smart he really is?

We said the same thing Thask. For the last two games everything they touched was gold. The fake FG, Onside kick, the halftime "go for it". You get greedy, go to the well one too many times. Its second down, at that point in the game your running back falls for two yards if he's hit at the line. I lost my bet, the poor Seahawks fans will be sick for years, especially if the team can't get back there soon. Being a Bills fan......I still remember "wide right".......its one of those "sports moments" in "infamy"......

[thaskalos]

We said the same thing Thask. For the last two games everything they touched was gold. The fake FG, Onside kick, the halftime "go for it". You get greedy, go to the well one too many times. Its second down, at that point in the game your running back falls for two yards if he's hit at the line. I lost my bet, the poor Seahawks fans will be sick for years, especially if the team can't get back there soon. Being a Bills fan......I still remember "wide right".......its one of those "sports moments" in "infamy"......
Not only did I lose my bet, Burnsy...but I am snowed-in today as well. The car is in the garage...with snow half-way up the door.

[Stillriledup]

Here's what the die hards at one of the Seahawks message boards are saying.

http://www.seahawks.net/viewforum.php?f=2

[Dark Horse]

Wait a minute now. The Seahawks had a "two turnover edge", while being down by 4 and receiving a kickoff after a touchdown...with 2:05 left in the game. I got a hunch that, statistically, this particular scenario is not as impressive as you make it sound.

Let's put it this way. If I gave you the option, between two more or less equal teams, to bet on the team with a known 2-0 turnover edge, would you bet on the other team?

[lamboguy]

I would have thought that this shows more respect for NE. Won't Brady be nearing 50 next year?i don't know about Brady, but if i go through another game next year like this one yesterday, i will be nearing 100 if you know what i mean!

[thaskalos]

Let's put it this way. If I gave you the option, between two more or less equal teams, to bet on the team with a known 2-0 turnover edge, would you bet on the other team?

No...but Seattle needed more than a two-turnover edge in order to win yesterday. They also needed a miracle reception...and a one-yard touchdown play. And they only got one of those two...

[RXB]

No...but Seattle needed more than a two-turnover edge in order to win yesterday. They also needed a miracle reception...and a one-yard touchdown play. And they only got one of those two...

Exactly.

I find that if a team loses the turnover battle but still wins the game, they were probably the better team. Inferior teams infrequently overcome a negative turnover margin.

[proximity]

Baltimore? :)

i see the 2015 schedule features another big home game against the jags!! :)

[horses4courses]

i see the 2015 schedule features another big home game against the jags!! :)

It's always puzzled me why every second or third guy
I hear talking about Jacksonville calls them the "Jagwires".
Terry Bradshaw is top of the list.

Guess it's better than "Jagoffs" ;)

[lamboguy]

Neither one of them are going back......5-1 sucker bets..after the 2014 superbowl, i thought 5-1 would have been a great deal for Seattle, when they posted it was only 3-1.

before the playoffs started this year i had picked the Seahawks to win. but after the Pats beat the Ravens i started looking at them. during that game the Pats offensive line just looked above average, i went back and looked at the way the Ravens played and saw a really great defense.

under that assumption i loved the Pats against the Colts. the game played and the offensive line knocked down the Colts play after play. i know that the Seahawks are way better than the Colts top to bottom. but still i thought the Pats offensive line was that good.

if that line stays together, they are going to come back pretty tough again. i am not about to take 5-1 on that proposition, but i have seen worse bets out there that plenty of people make.

[Dark Horse]

No...but Seattle needed more than a two-turnover edge in order to win yesterday. They also needed a miracle reception...and a one-yard touchdown play. And they only got one of those two...

People say New England was the better team for most of the game. Let's take the first half. I saw Brady dinking and dunking for small gains for most of the half, and Seattle lie in wait like a coiled up serpent. When they struck it was with lightning speed. Eight minutes for one drive, 29 seconds for the other. At the end of the game they did it again. One team was lethal, the other was methodical.

The Seahawks strength was seen when they turned around a 7-14 deficit into a 24-14 lead. It looked almost effortless, didn't it? Then they made their mistake. They thought they had the game won, and relaxed ever so slightly. You can't do that against Brady. They allowed the Patriots back in the game. If the Seahawks had continued with the same intensity we wouldn't be sitting here talking about a last second missed opportunity. (did the Patriots themselves relax when they were up 14-7? I don't think so. It's not in their culture. To me they were outplayed when Seattle stepped up the intensity).

[horses4courses]

I saw it differently.

If it were a fight, NE was well ahead at HT and completely
let SEA off the hook by letting them tie the game before the half.
Hell, Wilson didn't complete a pass for close to the first 25 minutes.

Where was the game headed from here?
No telling for sure, but SEA made the most of NE's generosity.
They took over the game in the 3Q , and looked to have put it away.

As we all saw, NE wasn't done.
They came back strong, thanks mainly to Brady and Gronkowski.
When they took the lead at 2:02 that should have been it.
Their defense, especially the secondary, looked tired, though.
SEA got that big play to midfield right away, so it was not over.

The Kearse catch off his leg?
Ridiculously lucky, but it should have set up the win.
Shades of the miracle against the Pack once again.
Wasn't to be, though, and it's hard to deny NE the title.

Again - if it had been a fight that had gone to the scorecards,
NE did enough to win. They sure came close to blowing it, though.

[Nitro]

My first reaction was on par with probably everyone else who understands football.

But hold the presses! I recently heard on the NFL Network that one of the reasons that the Seahawk coaches may have opted for that passing play is that during the regular season M. Lynch was only successful in scoring once in 5 attempts when trying to score from inside the 5 yard line! Can anyone verify that?

If true, Coach Carol’s explanation for that call makes a bit more sense. However, no one can diminish the impact of that defensive interception, because just deflecting it gives the Seahawks another shot.

BTW Tom Brady isn't even close to 50, in fact if I'm not mistaken he's not even 40. In in comment during the regular season he claimed to feel better then he did 10 years ago.

[horses4courses]

My first reaction was on par with probably everyone else who understands football.

But hold the presses! I recently heard on the NFL Network that one of the reasons that the Seahawk coaches may have opted for that passing play is that during the regular season M. Lynch was only successful in scoring once in 5 attempts when trying to score from inside the 5 yard line! Can anyone verify that?

If true, Coach Carol’s explanation for that call makes a bit more sense. However, no one can diminish the impact of that defensive interception, because just deflecting it gives the Seahawks another shot.

BTW Tom Brady isn't even close to 50, in fact if I'm not mistaken he's not even 40. In in comment during the regular season he claimed to feel better then he did 10 years ago.

I saw something about that, too. Can't verify it, though.
NE must have thought it was a strong possibility.

Let's say a running play failed.
You still have two more shots, provided you don't turn it over.
If you don't think Lynch could punch it in (and he must have had a good
chance of doing so), you fake to Lynch and let Wilson run.

It came down to risk and clock, and they made a bad call.

[burnsy]

People say New England was the better team for most of the game. Let's take the first half. I saw Brady dinking and dunking for small gains for most of the half, and Seattle lie in wait like a coiled up serpent. When they struck it was with lightning speed. Eight minutes for one drive, 29 seconds for the other. At the end of the game they did it again. One team was lethal, the other was methodical.

The Seahawks strength was seen when they turned around a 7-14 deficit into a 24-14 lead. It looked almost effortless, didn't it? Then they made their mistake. They thought they had the game won, and relaxed ever so slightly. You can't do that against Brady. They allowed the Patriots back in the game. If the Seahawks had continued with the same intensity we wouldn't be sitting here talking about a last second missed opportunity. (did the Patriots themselves relax when they were up 14-7? I don't think so. It's not in their culture. To me they were outplayed when Seattle stepped up the intensity).

I agree with everything you said. That's how Seattle plays the game. People think Wilson is not a great QB? The guy can drive a team down the field in seconds. Faster than anyone in this league without "super star" receivers. The one thing I don't agree with is you can't let up against any of the good teams, not just Brady. In this day and age the best teams can burn you the minute you don't keep the pressure on.........that's how Green Bay lost their deal. Many teams actually get "worse" with a lead, they all know the "new" way of scoring but have not figured out good plans to keep it going without getting too conservative or not getting enough first downs. The best 4 or 5 teams can come back and bite ass when the leader gets too comfy. It was seen in the NFC championship game, Dallas vs. Detroit, the Ravens vs. Patriots and yesterday. The days of sitting on the lead are over. I think many coaches still have not gotten past that yet.

[Clocker]

Are you ready for some football? Football conspiracy theory, that is.

The latest story is that Carroll called a pass instead of a run for public relations purposes. The Seahawks wanted Russell, not Lynch, to be the hero because Lynch is too hard to deal with and Russell presents a much better image as the face of the Seahawks.

This writer claims he got confirmation from someone inside the team that management wanted Russell as the hero. I love cheap drama. :D

http://www.thenation.com/blog/196697/conspiracy-theory-surrounding-seahawks-last-play

[Nitro]

I agree with everything you said. That's how Seattle plays the game. People think Wilson is not a great QB? The guy can drive a team down the field in seconds. Faster than anyone in this league without "super star" receivers. The one thing I don't agree with is you can't let up against any of the good teams, not just Brady. In this day and age the best teams can burn you the minute you don't keep the pressure on.........that's how Green Bay lost their deal. Many teams actually get "worse" with a lead, they all know the "new" way of scoring but have not figured out good plans to keep it going without getting too conservative or not getting enough first downs. The best 4 or 5 teams can come back and bite ass when the leader gets too comfy. It was seen in the NFC championship game, Dallas vs. Detroit, the Ravens vs. Patriots and yesterday. The days of sitting on the lead are over. I think many coaches still have not gotten past that yet.

So in other words, don't give any credit to the Patriot defense for causing this great quarterback from going 3-out 3 times after they had that 10 point lead? :confused:
Please don't insult the Seattle fans who relished their team's notorious scoring abilities in the 4th quarter all season long.

[Nitro]

Are you ready for some football? Football conspiracy theory, that is.

The latest story is that Carroll called a pass instead of a run for public relations purposes. The Seahawks wanted Russell, not Lynch, to be the hero because Lynch is too hard to deal with and Russell presents a much better image as the face of the Seahawks.

This writer claims he got confirmation from someone inside the team that management wanted Russell as the hero. I love cheap drama. :D

http://www.thenation.com/blog/196697/conspiracy-theory-surrounding-seahawks-last-play

Then why didn't he call his own number and just run it himself? That's exactly what Brady would have done!
That theory is B.S. and doesn't hold any water at all!

[Stillriledup]

Are you ready for some football? Football conspiracy theory, that is.

The latest story is that Carroll called a pass instead of a run for public relations purposes. The Seahawks wanted Russell, not Lynch, to be the hero because Lynch is too hard to deal with and Russell presents a much better image as the face of the Seahawks.

This writer claims he got confirmation from someone inside the team that management wanted Russell as the hero. I love cheap drama. :D

http://www.thenation.com/blog/196697/conspiracy-theory-surrounding-seahawks-last-play

Another theory is they wanted to "weaken" the demands of Lynch in offseason contract negotations.

[Stillriledup]

Then why didn't he call his own number and just run it himself? That's exactly what Brady would have done!
That theory is B.S. and doesn't hold any water at all!

its funny how this play got called and Wilson wasn't smart enough to NOT force the ball into a tight spot. He could have just thought it was the stupidest play call ever and tossed it into the front row....but he bought into the playcall by trying to make it work. Its one thing to call a pass play there, its another thing to call THAT pass play. Firing the ball into a spot in the field where it could have easily bounced off the guy's hands, pads or helmet up into the air and be up for grabs..so, not only was not running Lynch stupid, the actual pass play wouldn't have nearly been as bad if they tried a different type of pass.

Blame goes 70 pct to the "hero" that made the call, 15 pct to wilson for actually trying to execute a dumb play and 15 pct for carroll for not being more hands on with 20 seconds left in the game. 3 people at fault.