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Lemon Drop Husker
01-10-2015, 11:12 AM
13 horses will go to the gate in this 1 1/16th mile G2 turf race. Will Za Approval romp and outclass his competition in here?

:11: Za Approval will likely be the post time favorite, and why not? This graded stakes veteran recently had a strong 2nd in the G2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar and has been training well coming into this one. The class of the field.

:3: Mshawish is a steadily improving 5YO and may be just coming into his prime winning 2 of his last 3. His win on 12/13 in the $100K El Prado at this track was visually impressive as he blew away from the field down the lane. Pletcher and Castellano are nice connections to have as well. Tough to keep out of exotics.

:12: Mutin just won an $80K OC at Aqueduct on the lawn at the 1 1/16th mile distance in his first American start after coming from across the pond. I'm still having a hard time overlooking his extremely uncompetitive races in his 4 races prior to that effort. I see this guy as likely being overbet due to the Ortiz and McLaughlin connections.

:2: Lochte is a very interesting entry. Bocachica is a better jockey than his current numbers suggest, and he has an extreme amount of experience riding this 5YO Medaglio D'Oro son. Lochte has never finished outside of the trifecta at Gulfstream and has 4 wins in 5 tries at the track and is 3 for 5 at the distance. A dangerous entry that may well be overlooked.

:9: Mucho Mas Macho is the 2013 champion of this race. However, since that race things haven't gone too well as he is 0 for 9 since that win. His most recent effort shows he could be on the upswing, and at a ML of 20/1 he is an appetizing long shot that has back class and success to show he is good enough to beat these on his best day.

:6: Mosler is where I'll be landing in this race. This lightly raced $1 million War Front son will be trying the grass for the first time while also stepping up in class to face his toughest competition to date. The biggest concern here is not only the uptick in competition, but the size of the field. Mosler has mainly ran in 6, 7, and 8 horse fields and when entered in an 11 horse field he gave forth his worst performance to date finishing dead last. Looking for the masterful veteran John Velazquez to handle this guy well and guide him to his first graded stakes win.

OTHERS: :4: Howe Great is a graded stakes veteran and has the ability to surprise. Recent form suggests him to finish well back however. :5: Fredericksburg is an intriguing long shot in here. Tough to look past his last one out after the layoff though. :7: Grand Tito looks to be an exotics play only, if at all. His 3rd place finish in his last out was his best effort in a while and still wasn't good enough in G3 company. :1: Silver Freak ships in and does get Leparoux in the irons, but looks to be short of many others in here while making a major class jump. He could be dangerous if he is let loose on the lead, and has won a number of races by significant daylight.


WP: :6:
EX: :2::6:/:2::3::6:
TRI: :2::6:/:2::3::6:/:2::3::5::6::7::9::11:

PICSIX
01-10-2015, 11:29 AM
11 ZA APPROVAL 98
2 LOCHTE 96
7 GRAND TITO 96
3 MSHAWISH 94
10 TESSERON 94
12 MUTIN 93
1 SILVER FREAK 90
6 MOSLER 89
5 FREDERICKSBURG 87
4 HOWE GREAT 85
9 MUCHO MAS MACHO 85
8 SHIVA RYAN 84
13 GOLDEN RIFLE 80

zico20
01-10-2015, 11:49 AM
13 horses will go to the gate in this 1 1/16th mile G2 turf race. Will Za Approval romp and outclass his competition in here?

:11: Za Approval will likely be the post time favorite, and why not? This graded stakes veteran recently had a strong 2nd in the G2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar and has been training well coming into this one. The class of the field.

:3: Mshawish is a steadily improving 5YO and may be just coming into his prime winning 2 of his last 3. His win on 12/13 in the $100K El Prado at this track was visually impressive as he blew away from the field down the lane. Pletcher and Castellano are nice connections to have as well. Tough to keep out of exotics.

:12: Mutin just won an $80K OC at Aqueduct on the lawn at the 1 1/16th mile distance in his first American start after coming from across the pond. I'm still having a hard time overlooking his extremely uncompetitive races in his 4 races prior to that effort. I see this guy as likely being overbet due to the Ortiz and McLaughlin connections.

:2: Lochte is a very interesting entry. Bocachica is a better jockey than his current numbers suggest, and he has an extreme amount of experience riding this 5YO Medaglio D'Oro son. Lochte has never finished outside of the trifecta at Gulfstream and has 4 wins in 5 tries at the track and is 3 for 5 at the distance. A dangerous entry that may well be overlooked.

:9: Mucho Mas Macho is the 2013 champion of this race. However, since that race things haven't gone too well as he is 0 for 9 since that win. His most recent effort shows he could be on the upswing, and at a ML of 20/1 he is an appetizing long shot that has back class and success to show he is good enough to beat these on his best day.

:6: Mosler is where I'll be landing in this race. This lightly raced $1 million War Front son will be trying the grass for the first time while also stepping up in class to face his toughest competition to date. The biggest concern here is not only the uptick in competition, but the size of the field. Mosler has mainly ran in 6, 7, and 8 horse fields and when entered in an 11 horse field he gave forth his worst performance to date finishing dead last. Looking for the masterful veteran John Velazquez to handle this guy well and guide him to his first graded stakes win.

OTHERS: :4: Howe Great is a graded stakes veteran and has the ability to surprise. Recent form suggests him to finish well back however. :5: Fredericksburg is an intriguing long shot in here. Tough to look past his last one out after the layoff though. :7: Grand Tito looks to be an exotics play only, if at all. His 3rd place finish in his last out was his best effort in a while and still wasn't good enough in G3 company. :1: Silver Freak ships in and does get Leparoux in the irons, but looks to be short of many others in here while making a major class jump. He could be dangerous if he is let loose on the lead, and has won a number of races by significant daylight.


WP: :6:
EX: :2::6:/:2::3::6:
TRI: :2::6:/:2::3::6:/:2::3::5::6::7::9::11:

First off, very nice write up of the race. Wish more people would do a detailed analysis of big stakes races. What, no super bet? Go for the big bucks! ;)

I am not very good with turf races. I bet only 6 turf races all last year. And once I read that a horse is making his first start on grass in here that pretty much eliminates me making a bet. However, I looked the race over and I would pick the :2: He loves GP and has a very solid record at the distance. The :3: :4: :6: :7: :11: would be the horses I would play behind the top pick. I noticed you didn't have the :4: in your picks. My reason for this long shot is he needed that race back off of a 11 month break. He runs well at GP and likes the distance. I don't like your :5: at all. Poor GP record, trainer ice cold at the meet, poor record at the distance.

This is a wide open race where a number off them can win and more can be in the tri and super.

Good luck to you!

Valuist
01-10-2015, 12:02 PM
I don't think I have ever seen a horse who was as all-or-nothing as Mutin. He either wins, or he gets blown away. Starts his career with 4 straight wins, then 4 horrific races, including two on Poly. Certainly looked like a candidate who may have bled, and he overcame some traffic and tight quarters in the stretch to win his US debut getting Lasix for the first time.

arw629
01-10-2015, 12:32 PM
I'm playing in some tournaments at horsetourneys.com today and have :2: Lochte selected on my pick and pray format.....I don't love the pick by any means.....

Does anyone like :1: Silver Freak? I don't expect a hot pace, and I think his best race could get it done here...I hate taking need the leads going 8.5 furs but the price will be big which is what you need to find in these tournaments.....Any input? Anyone really like a bomber today at gulfstream or santa anita?

lamboguy
01-10-2015, 12:48 PM
i thought that LOCHTE looks like the best in this race by about a mile. they bought this horse in the Saratoga fall sale and won a Grade 1 with him.

RXB
01-10-2015, 05:13 PM
Tough race; not sold on anything. Modest play on longshot Tesseron who has been running fairly well.

Lemon Drop Husker
01-10-2015, 05:20 PM
:3::7::5::11:

:6: Mosler with no excuses in a stalking trip with moderate fractions. :3: goes off as the 9/5 favorite and doesn't disappoint while getting some bombs in the :7: and :5: behind him to fill out a $263.10 $.50 trifecta.