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zico20
01-09-2015, 11:40 AM
The big race of the week goes Saturday as Santa Anita's 8th race featuring Hoppertunity. I will give a break down in the order I think it will come with ML odds also.

:2: Hoppertunity 9-5 Big GR 1 win in the Clark at CD now comes back to his home track. Most talented horse figures to get an ideal stalking trip behind the two front runners from the inside post. Baffert trained should be ready for best effort 3rd off the layoff. Hard to see this one losing unless some thing unusual happens. Final odds will be 4-5 or so. Best Bet of the day.

:11: Tonito M 10-1 Post major draw back here for Hollendorfer/Bejarano combo. He lost at Zia to a very sharp, rapidly improving Alert Bay. 13 times on dirt 7-3-2 with only out of money finish coming at Belmont. Just keeps on closing every race. Another 4 yr old who will improve as the year goes on.

:3: Majestic Harbor 9-2 If you toss the BC Classic (post 14) and the Pacific Classic (synthetic) this horse has been close his other 6 races in 2014. He is 8 for 10 at the distance in the money and 6 for 7 in the super lifetime at SA, with the only blemish the BC. Super fast work has this one primed for a big effort. A must use in the super.

:10: Appealing Tale 10-1 Horse loves SA. All his best races are here. He is the fastest horse early. The last race is kind of deceiving. Three of the big favorites, led by Secret Circle all ran clunkers. He was my long shot at 31-1. Mile may be his limit but could hold on for a share at the extra sixteenth. Must avoid suicidal speed dual with my next pick.

:4: Big Casanova 5-1 Inside post may help even out playing field on the front end with Appealing Tale. But he is not as fast early. Big knock is he clearly prefers the synthetic where he is undefeated. 14 starts on dirt and only 1 win is a big problem. Toss his BC race as he went 110 for a mile and 3/4 race and his one before that at Belmont in the JC Gold Cup from terrible post at a much longer distance than he prefers. If he can rate he has a shot at the ass end of the super.

:6: Bronzo 8-1 Didn't like his BC mile race. He was very far back in a fast pace and just past faders in the lane. His record in Chile is not as impressive the :7: IMO. Getting Stevens is a plus. Work outs are so so but could improve 2nd start in the US. Long shot for 4th if the two front runners duel each other into the ground.

:8: Mr Commons 10-1 Strictly a turf horse who has not won in an eternity. Looks like a desperation move to dirt. Runs the same in GR1 races as he does in allowance races. Just don't see it here.

:7: Salto Del Indio 20-1 Good form in Chile in 2013 winning GR 1 race. Has not transferred his form over to the US. Doesn't appear that he likes SA based on Gold Cup and plethora of work outs over the track.

:9: Blue Tone 12-1 Clearly prefers synthetics to dirt and lost quite easily to Big Casanova at Del Mar. Horse also has no power on dirt. Hard to see making an impact in here except for the early part of the race.

:5: Baccelo 30-1 two for two on dirt but boy this is a step up in class. Times are very slow and has never stepped foot on SA soil. Would be a shocker.

:1: Quadrivium 6-1 Can someone please explain to me how this horse is 6-1 on the ML. I know Smith rides but this horse should go off 50-1 without Smith and 25-1 with him. Very cheap, winning a nw2 allowance at Laurel of all places. Never ran at SA and his 3 workouts here are not very encouraging to say the least. I just don't see it, period.

To recap, I love Hoppertunity to win with Tonito M and Majestic Harbor to be in the super. I think one of the two speed horses will round out the super but I don't see them both being there. If a suicidal speed dual emerges then both could run up the track, leaving the 4th spot wide open for any of the remaining 6 I don't like.

I have not bet a race all week and I don't like anything on Sunday so this is where I landed as far as possibly making money. I do have some money to play with as I won 300 at the casino this week. So, my "free" play is as follows:

40 tri :2: :3: :11: and :2: :11: :3: 80 bucks

super covers: 8 dollars :2: with :3: :11: with :4: :10: with :3: :11: 32 bucks

4 dollar super :2: with :4: :10: with :3: :11: with :3: :11: 16 bucks

Total investment 128 dollars. Hoping the tri pays 60-80 which would be a nice payday.

I think I have this figured out, Any input to where I may have gone wrong is always welcomed! GL

letswastemoney
01-09-2015, 02:24 PM
Hopperunity should romp over that field. No other elite 4 year olds in there to deal with.

arw629
01-09-2015, 09:06 PM
Hopperunity should romp over that field. No other elite 4 year olds in there to deal with.

Hoppertunity is yet to "romp" over anyone....
his 3 wins- Clark-most impressive by 1/2 length
-Rebel 1/2 length in mud
-Maiden 3 lengths--I guess this could constitute a romp

He might win, but I don't think he'll romp

arw629
01-09-2015, 09:07 PM
Also...Baffert is ice cold right now and we all know how it goes when you're not running good

arw629
01-09-2015, 09:12 PM
I think Tonito will be way overbet here as well....He's 1 for 7 in the states....his lone win a grade 3 at RP in a 10 furlong race for 3 year olds who dueled wildcat red into the ground....Tonito was handed that race on a silver platter....The second place horse in that race by 2 3/4 lengths would be 99-1 in the san pasqual......

Don't be surprised at all if Peter Miller scratches Big Cazanova or Appealing Tale....I think if Appealing Tale is scratched Big Cazanova can have his way on the front end....I agree that synthetic is probably his surface of choice but he is dead fit right now, and I don't see anyone other than Appealing Tale who will want to run early with him....i just cant see Miller having the two speeds duke it out on the front end but maybe im way wrong

letswastemoney
01-09-2015, 09:29 PM
Hoppertunity is yet to "romp" over anyone....
his 3 wins- Clark-most impressive by 1/2 length
-Rebel 1/2 length in mud
-Maiden 3 lengths--I guess this could constitute a romp

He might win, but I don't think he'll rompThe horses in the Clark were better than these.

I can see Hoppertunity winning by at least 3 lengths here.

zico20
01-09-2015, 09:33 PM
I think Tonito will be way overbet here as well....He's 1 for 7 in the states....his lone win a grade 3 at RP in a 10 furlong race for 3 year olds who dueled wildcat red into the ground....Tonito was handed that race on a silver platter....The second place horse in that race by 2 3/4 lengths would be 99-1 in the san pasqual......

Don't be surprised at all if Peter Miller scratches Big Cazanova or Appealing Tale....I think if Appealing Tale is scratched Big Cazanova can have his way on the front end....I agree that synthetic is probably his surface of choice but he is dead fit right now, and I don't see anyone other than Appealing Tale who will want to run early with him....i just cant see Miller having the two speeds duke it out on the front end but maybe im way wrong

It would surprise me if they hooked each other into submission, however, it would NOT be the first time two horses trained by the same guy cooked each other by "accident." I think he should scratch one or the other. It would give him a better chance of beating Hoppertunity.

Timeform US has them two even at the first call pace wise, but they seem to think Miller is going to let Big Cazanova get the lead. If so, why would you run Appealing Time, who won't close at all going two turns. If I was the owner of Appealing Time and he instructed my horse to take back and he runs out of it, I am changing trainers as soon as they cross the finish line. Putting up 3000 to run and then not giving your horse the best shot to win would piss me off. Appealing Time is the faster of the two.

Timeform picks Big Cazanova to win. On synthetic I could maybe see it. But a 1 for 14 dirt record is a huge minus to overcome. I would want at least 10-1 with that dirt record.

letswastemoney
01-09-2015, 09:50 PM
Timeform picks Big Cazanova to win. On synthetic I could maybe see it. But a 1 for 14 dirt record is a huge minus to overcome. I would want at least 10-1 with that dirt record.If that's the computer Power Pick, I don't think it takes different surfaces into account.

I see Pace Projector and the computer picks on TimeformUS as a friend. A good friend is always there to give advice, but in the end, you have to look at the data and still think for yourself.

zico20
01-09-2015, 09:56 PM
One more thing that just hit me. There was a thread about uncoupled horses a while back. I said I was opposed to uncoupled horses and this race is why. If I am betting Appealing Tale to win and the trainer is instructing the jockey to take back he is not giving the horse the best chance to win. That is akin to fixing the race. Appealing Tales best chance to win is to shoot straight to the front and play catch me if you can. If there were two different trainers you would know for sure that Appealing Tale would have the lead. Now, I am not sure how the pace will play out. A true front runner has a much better chance of winning by having a length or two lead in fast fractions rather than sitting second in pretty fast fractions where he has fallen apart without the lead in past races.

arw629
01-09-2015, 10:48 PM
The horses in the Clark were better than these.

I can see Hoppertunity winning by at least 3 lengths here.

I disagree that the horses in the Clark were better than these....Constitution was the main threat to Hoppertunity after getting thumped against allowance horses at belmont a month earlier....The San Pasqual pace is going to be stronger than the Clark and the leaders are going to stay longer than Constitution did...Speed at Santa Anita stays a bit better at Churchill Downs as well

Robert Fischer
01-09-2015, 11:35 PM
Looks like the morning line was very optimistic with 9-5. Hoppertunity looks like he will be 6-5 or even lower. He looks too obvious. I don't know enough about the other runners. A couple times at Santa Anita I've been burnt when the pace didn't stop.
Trying to bet Hoppertunity here is like splitting hairs of value (if in fact there is value), and a lot of betters are going to bet more then they can afford thinking he's a lock.
Will be interesting to see whether they go and bet him to show as well.

letswastemoney
01-09-2015, 11:53 PM
I disagree that the horses in the Clark were better than these....Constitution was the main threat to Hoppertunity after getting thumped against allowance horses at belmont a month earlier....The San Pasqual pace is going to be stronger than the Clark and the leaders are going to stay longer than Constitution did...Speed at Santa Anita stays a bit better at Churchill Downs as wellExpecting Constitution to fire his absolute best off that layoff is too much. Todd Pletcher always improves 2nd off the layoff.

The best three year olds last year were several lengths better than the older horses.

Hoppertunity may not be the best of his crop, but he's very close and as a young horse improvement is coming. I don't think you can look at a three year old's speed figures and expect the same the next year, as long as standard maturity occurs.

I'm not saying Hoppertunity is playable at 3/5, but he is the best horse in this race by a few lengths and I will be very surprised if he loses.

arw629
01-10-2015, 12:08 AM
Expecting Constitution to fire his absolute best off that layoff is too much. Todd Pletcher always improves 2nd off the layoff.

The best three year olds last year were several lengths better than the older horses.

Hoppertunity may not be the best of his crop, but he's very close and as a young horse improvement is coming. I don't think you can look at a three year old's speed figures and expect the same the next year, as long as standard maturity occurs.

I'm not saying Hoppertunity is playable at 3/5, but he is the best horse in this race by a few lengths and I will be very surprised if he loses.

That race was 2nd off the layoff for Constitution...he ran a stinker at belmont the month prior....pletcher was quoted before the Clark that he needed that race

taxicab
01-10-2015, 02:32 AM
I think Hoppertunity goes off at even money(There's no way the public lets this one go at 9-5).
First problem for Hoppertunity........Bob Baffert is 1 for 24 at this meet,and his horses aren't even getting close.
Secret Circle anybody ?
Second problem for Hoppertunity......sneaky good field.
The rest of the field has 7 Gr. Stakes winners in it(5 of them are Gr.1).
Third problem for the Hop......I don't think the Clark was a strong race,I like this bunch better.
Can Hoppertunity win ?
Of course he can......but at even money I don't want anything to do with him.
I don't really care for the next 3 on the ML {a bad ML at that}.
Maybe :6: for Drysdale.......Bronzo had no chance in the Dirt Mile against Goldencents on the asphalt surface that was SA on BC weekend.
The :8: Mr. Commons might surprise......He's won on the dirt at SA [NWx1], and ran a solid 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby.
And Zico is right......the ml on the :1: is atrocious.
Anytime Anyplace is still eligible for any NWx3 other than.
They have it right in the other thread,the linemaker isn't supposed to make the line based on who he likes.

plainolebill
01-10-2015, 04:14 AM
Appealing Tale looks razor sharp and this is probably his ideal distance. If he runs I'll be using him. The morning line for the one is probably reflecting his connections: Flaxman, Motion and Smith, I doubt he'll be anywhere near that low.

taxicab
01-10-2015, 05:51 AM
:1: not Anytime Anyplace(one race early) :eek: .......Quadrivium. :sleeping:

horses4courses
01-10-2015, 09:02 AM
Training lights out - goes off at 3-5 - wins for fun.
Not playable in the race by itself, but a must use
in horizontal wagers. If I play the PK4, I'll be singling him.

George Sands
01-10-2015, 09:49 AM
Timeform picks Big Cazanova to win.

No, they don't. They say, "We consider [Hoppertunity] the most likely winner." Then they say, "We give Big Cazanova the best chance to pull the upset."

Then they suggest a win bet on Big Cazanova.

Now this may seem confusing, but it becomes more clear when one considers that Hoppertunity will be much, much lower odds than Big Cazanova, which would result in a much bigger payoff should Big Cazanova pull the upset.

The thing about even-money favorites is that when they win, they do not pay very much.

Anyway, that is how I see it.

Lemon Drop Husker
01-10-2015, 10:31 AM
:6: Bronzo is where I'm landing.

Appy
01-10-2015, 11:29 AM
Puzzles me how Baff is able to attract so many of the horses I find most desirable. From the instant I first laid eyes on that beautiful little grey horse I coveted him. Would have a hard time rooting against Hopp.

I'd be watching the board to see if odds on :11: hold up, which thanks to bris is doubtful. Can see why Casanova is favored choice of some. Seems to me this race is more contentious than ML indicates. Probably a pass for me.

PICSIX
01-10-2015, 11:33 AM
2 HOPPERTUNITY 99
3 MAJESTIC HARBOR 98
4 BIG CAZANOVA 96
11 TONITO M. 96
9 BLUE TONE 95
6 BRONZO 93
1 QUADRIVIUM 90
8 MR. COMMONS 90
5 BACCELO 85
7 SALTO DEL INDIO 85
10 APPEALING TALE 85

raybo
01-10-2015, 02:56 PM
From my forum:

We also have the San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita today, going 1 1/16m on the dirt, for older horses (4 yo and up).

Like the Sham Stakes, I have a hard time with this one too. I'm not even going to try to analyze this race. I feel it's just not going to have much value to do so.

So, I'll just rank the horses off the numbers they have, what actually happens in the race I have no idea.

# Name (running style, morning line odds)

3 Majestic Harbor (S0, 9/2)
6 Bronzo (Chili) (S0, 8/1)
11 Tonito M. (P2, 10/1)
2 Hoppertunity (P0, 1.8/1)

Good luck!!

Robert Fischer
01-10-2015, 06:33 PM
Looks like the morning line was very optimistic with 9-5. Hoppertunity looks like he will be 6-5 or even lower. He looks too obvious. I don't know enough about the other runners. A couple times at Santa Anita I've been burnt when the pace didn't stop.
Trying to bet Hoppertunity here is like splitting hairs of value (if in fact there is value), and a lot of betters are going to bet more then they can afford thinking he's a lock.
Will be interesting to see whether they go and bet him to show as well.
Big Cazanova is that horse.
He's a little better than most people think. He's a little better than his numbers and running lines.

However, I don't think I'm saying anything much different than the public opinion. BC is an obvious 2nd threat.

I still can't bet this race. I pretty much agree with the public.

If you guys play, I hope you win some money, and I hope I learn something valuable for the future. :ThmbUp:

cutchemist42
01-10-2015, 07:05 PM
With the odds on Hop being what they are, I'll be playing Majestic Harbour to win. Tonito M was close to being my pick, and Big Cazanova with the upset on the front have me some time to consider.

JimG
01-10-2015, 07:10 PM
2-11-4 would be my picks here. The 11 and 4 are both overlays due to the 2 being overbet, imo.

Jim

Relwob Owner
01-10-2015, 07:13 PM
I think they can beat the favorite and like the 3 and the 6 played over and under the 1,2,9,11. Good luck to all

Robert Fischer
01-10-2015, 08:16 PM
That was pretty much what we all called.

Hoppertunity won by 1.75 lengths.
At 4/5 he was a terrible wager. Got a fair or better setup and a fair or better trip (saved 4.5Lengths of ground compared to the 10, and wasn't on the pace like the 9)
However if you bet him @ 4/5 you won TODAY - and all the geeky stuff aside that you'll see me espouse here - I think there's something to be said for the end justifying the means.
If you put $50,000 on that horse to win, then you will have a party. I'll be envious of you. Your money and you will soon part..., but there's something to be said for winning now with the most-likely winner regardless of what a guy like me claims to "know better".


There was a lot of emotion regarding the 10 and his probable tactics, but I think it was an educational race in that regard.

The 4 was who we thought he was, although the energetic break and the tactics of the 9 provided heavy Hoppertunity backers with an early sigh of relief, as the 4 was not allowed to control early in a jog. Backers of the 4 can hardly 'complain' however.

Players that passed, as well as players that doubled their predatory loan can pat themselves on the back tonight.

arw629
01-10-2015, 08:31 PM
Baffert hit on the head post race congratulating Martin Garcia on the ride....He was able to get Hoppertunity to relax early instead of chase...flawless ride IMO

George Sands
01-12-2015, 10:18 AM
Timeform US has them two even at the first call pace wise, but they seem to think Miller is going to let Big Cazanova get the lead. If so, why would you run Appealing Time, who won't close at all going two turns. If I was the owner of Appealing Time and he instructed my horse to take back and he runs out of it, I am changing trainers as soon as they cross the finish line. Putting up 3000 to run and then not giving your horse the best shot to win would piss me off. Appealing Time is the faster of the two.

They didn't run Appealing Time. They ran Appealing Tale, who, by the way, broke his maiden, around two turns, by coming from behind.