Hal's Hope at Gulfstream discussion

[letswastemoney]

I simply think :1: Lea's best race will win this and wrote an analysis (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/10946/lea-in-hals-hope-at-gulfstream-park.html) stating that.

If Lea loses, I give :2: Golden Lad, :3: Valid and :5: Prayer for Relief a small shot... :6: Confrontation an even smaller shot...and Slim Shadey zero chance.

What do you think?

BRIS PPs click here (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=GP&race=7&param1=800&param2=560&param3=1001455)

[Some_One]

An indicator I'm currently testing (mostly with UK/Aussie racing though) is telling me :2: :6: as the :1: :3: will be overbet/undervalued

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Looks like an awfully chalky race in a 6 horse field with the :1::2::3:. They look like they will control a moderate pace at a speed favoring Gulfstream not giving much hope for the closing styles of the :5::6:.

The interesting entry is the :4: Slim Shadey being shipped in from New York with smoking hot trainer David Jacobson. Looks like a very ambitious spot for a 7YO that hasn't been very competitive in the few times he has stepped it up into graded stakes competition. His works have also been awful over the track at Gulfstream and they may be praying for some rain on Saturday. His ML of 15/1 looks like it will rise to 20/1 or higher which could make him worth some plays underneath or at a bomber of a price to actually pull the shocker.

Doesn't look like a playable race to me. Maybe all the money comes in on the :1: and you can get 5/2 on the :3:, but I doubt it. Even the :2: is risky at the 5/2 ML, but will get play due to the Pletcher/Velazquez combination and his solid record at GS and the distance.

[taxicab]

Six horse jaunt....
I'm thinking :1: :2: are using this as a prep for the Donn(soon after the SA/Oaklawn Hdcp).
It is a one turn mile.....I'll try :6: Confrontation and hope he catches the final 1/8th.
He's tactical/well drawn and is a square price{6-1}.
If you're not playing the race and seek entertainment value,keep an eye on :4: Slim Shadey......he's been known to put on a show the minute he sees the starting gate. :eek:

[Stillriledup]

This is the type of race i look at on paper for 5 seconds and then decide to skip it and don't work any further. What am i going to do with the 1 off the year layoff and 114 beyer? Cant bet on him at short odds and can't bet against him either......good pass race.

[zico20]

This is the type of race i look at on paper for 5 seconds and then decide to skip it and don't work any further. What am i going to do with the 1 off the year layoff and 114 beyer? Cant bet on him at short odds and can't bet against him either......good pass race.

You are absolutely correct about the :1: Every time I play a big favorite off a long layoff they run up the track and when I bet against them they draw off. Doesn't matter who the trainer is either. I can't ever get it right. If I had to pick a winner though, I would go with Valid over Lea.

Problem is there are two horses off long layoffs. I doubt both run to their capabilities. Prayer for Relief will probably run 4th to round out the super. Have no idea what Golden Lad is going to do. Don't like the other two at all. No chance I am going to bet this race.

[PICSIX]

3 VALID 102
1 LEA 100
2 GOLDEN LAD 98
5 PRAYER FOR RELIEF 98
4 SLIM SHADEY 90
6 CONFRONTATION 90