TM pace pp's

[mrroyboy]

Still need help using tm pace pp's. What should I be looking for? Which races last, last three etc? First half, or last half?
Any and all suggestions would be appreciated.
Thank you John, Ray and anyone else.

[Ray2000]

Looks like there's nothing new in the game, roy.
All the old methods still apply but just don't produce the same returns.




One thing I'm exploring (while building a Greyhound database) is the relative importance of changes.
Ignore times, earnings, UDRs, UTRs, early speed and focus simply on "What changed?", "Why did this 20/1 shot finish in the money?"

possible changes to look at:

1 Barn change
2 Driver change only after a string of same driver and same barn
3 Good post draw after a series of bad luck draws (this may be too noticeable by the crowd)
4 Lasix
5 Equipment, shoeing, but this is difficult to get in a database.
6 Track ship-ins, first start new track
7 Trackmaster speed rating bump .... same, same, same, bingo
8 Class move but again this is too obvious.
9 Leaver/Closer reversal
10 Major Odds drop but not in Morning Line

If any of these factors are flipping back and forth every other race then ignore it.

Getting a predictor chance out of these factors (changes) would be a challenge. RandomForest testing?

Any ideas or other change types?

[mrroyboy]

I have always believed in changes as a handicapping tool. Especially in t-breds but also in harness.

[Ray2000]

Looks like there's nothing new in the game, roy.
All the old methods still apply but just don't produce the same returns.




One thing I'm exploring (while building a Greyhound database) is the relative importance of changes.
Ignore times, earnings, UDRs, UTRs, early speed and focus simply on "What changed?", "Why did this 20/1 shot finish in the money?"

possible changes to look at:

1 Barn change
2 Driver change only after a string of same driver and same barn
3 Good post draw after a series of bad luck draws (this may be too noticeable by the crowd)
4 Lasix
5 Equipment, shoeing, but this is difficult to get in a database.
6 Track ship-ins, first start new track
7 Trackmaster speed rating bump .... same, same, same, bingo
8 Class move but again this is too obvious.
9 Leaver/Closer reversal
10 Major Odds drop but not in Morning Line

If any of these factors are flipping back and forth every other race then ignore it.

Getting a predictor chance out of these factors (changes) would be a challenge. RandomForest testing?

Any ideas or other change types?


Add another to "Changes" list

11 Cobalt level

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/restricted/pdf/hru/hru010915.pdf?CFID=91691938&CFTOKEN=89386076

[mrroyboy]

yup got that. :D

[mrroyboy]

What I am looking for is a basic rating for each horse using the pace pp's. Something like PIPS. Then I can check the top rated horses for driver changes etc.
All suggestions welcome. Thank you.

[Overcall]

I don't use these. These look right up LottaCash's alley. The way TM breaks down
the quarters,

[mrroyboy]

ok but what do you use?

[Overcall]

I use TM pp.exe's and also download the Platinum pdf for a visual.
In theory my robot could print out the pdf. Went a little overboard
in setting up the matrix. Also finding fonts that small is prolly an issue.
Why bother while the pdf is available. With the revised TM policy, and
concern of availibility, OCR conversion is once again on the agenda.