Rainbow^6 bettor singled 47-to-1 Noble Prince to take down $317k jackpot

[EJXD2]

Thanks to Jesse from Washington for sharing his story w/ me!

STORY: http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/1/7/washington-bettor-calls-rainbow6-score-miracle

WINNING TICKET:
https://www.twinspires.com/sites/twinspires.com/files/styles/large/public/WinningCombo.JPG?itok=HGJ57Wd5

LIFETIME PPs OF 47-to-1 NOBLE PRINCE:
https://www.twinspires.com/sites/twinspires.com/files/styles/large/public/NoblePrince5044.JPG?itok=b5ZvbteV

[tanner12oz]

Crazy...

[Flysofree]

I thought residents of Washington State were not allowed to play online. Was that changed from a few years ago or did I dream it?

[lamboguy]

i can't stand this bet, i hit a non jackpot that included a $60 horse that i happened to have singled,a $27, $17, and 3 others that paid $6 or less and split it with 5 others.

the money usually goes to people that don't support that handle or the game. and they can't handicap either, they do it with loads of money. when they win, the money never returns to the game..

if this game was half smart they would get rid of all these high multiple exotic wagers and go back to straight bets, a daily double and 3 perfecta's. i know its not happening ever, i am just wishing.

[DeltaLover]

i can't stand this bet, i hit a non jackpot that included a $60 horse that i happened to have singled,a $27, $17, and 3 others that paid $6 or less and split it with 5 others.

the money usually goes to people that don't support that handle or the game. and they can't handicap either, they do it with loads of money. when they win, the money never returns to the game..

if this game was half smart they would get rid of all these high multiple exotic wagers and go back to straight bets, a daily double and 3 perfecta's. i know its not happening ever, i am just wishing.

I have to agree that today we have way to many long horizontal exotics while probably the worst among them is the Rainbow Pick6. I would certainly prefer fixed odds and the ability to pre select long parlays that will be paid based on them, like it can be done in Europe (see ladbrokes.com for an example)...

More than this though, the particular pick 6 ticket of this thread, is a very well thought and structured one, that makes me to believe that its owner should be not only an experienced handicapper but a very good bettor as well. I like the bottom heavy shape he gave to his selections and the fact that he had the courage to single his longshot without trying for covers as most of the (weak) bettors would have done.

I am sure that a lot of the posters here, would have to make the argument of why just not bet the single longshot to win for a secure $1,500 profit instead of risking it in such a long exotic.. Of course those who hold this way of thinking, are way behind when it comes to horse betting and they will never be able to hit a big score...

I find it interesting that the similar thread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=119402) about a 'p5 bad beat' where someone singled an odds favourite attracted a lot of action and responses, while this one that in my opinion represents much better handicapping and betting execution, did not created any interest among the posters.

[Tom]

I am sure that a lot of the posters here, would have to make the argument of why just not bet the single longshot to win for a secure $1,500 profit instead of risking it in such a long exotic.. Of course those who hold this way of thinking, are way behind when it comes to horse betting and they will never be able to hit a big score...

If you can single a long shot like that a few times, I say you will better off doing that than chasing the big one that you might never hit. To say people who think that are way behind is absurd in my view. Your goals are not the same as everyone else.

[Charli125]

I thought residents of Washington State were not allowed to play online. Was that changed from a few years ago or did I dream it?

Yes, we can bet online, but only with Twinspires, Xpressbet, and TVG.

[DeltaLover]

Your goals are not the same as everyone else.

I you substitute 'everyone else' with 'the majority of horse bettors'' I would agree with your statement..

In my opinion, the essence of the game is focused on big scores and not on daily grinds.

The more self-weighted your betting approach is, the more it limits your chances for a large payout and the more vulnerable you become to gambler's ruin, which eventually will wipe out any bankroll regardless of its size.

[Tom]

In my opinion, the essence of the game is focused on the big scores and not on daily grinds.

That probably explains why around 98% are losers.

[Cholly]

from the article:

"Sherman had already booked a win on the day, as he not only singled Noble Prince to kick off the Rainbow^6 but had win and place money on the longshot"

[Appy]

"the essence of the game is focused on the big scores and not on daily grinds."

I'm with you there.
But you still have to do the grind work to ID the play.

[DeltaLover]

That probably explains why around 98% are losers.

I cannot see how you derive your conclusion.. I would say that in a game that is conducted on a mutual pool basis with a high take out, it is natural to expect almost all of the bettors to be long time losers, regardless of their betting styles. What might be responsible for the infrequent outlier, who will show some profitability, should only be a very large score that can cover a long series of losing bets, placing the bettor well in the black.

[DeltaLover]

"the essence of the game is focused on the big scores and not on daily grinds."

I'm with you there.
But you still have to do the grind work to ID the play.

Of course.. Deciding on the aggressive - passive scale is not a black and white decision and it is up to the experience of the bettor to balance his approach with the proper proportion of risk - reward betting propositions.. Still, he needs to always keep in mind, that the large score should be in the core of his strategy and adjust accordingly.

[Light]

Horse had the classic pattern of decelerating speed figs after a top. Then in last pace line shows definite improvement in SR. Which shows horse has now changed direction in form cycle. I've seen this pattern many times with bombs and why not take a chance with this type of bet where you really need a separator. Of course this pattern is not guaranteed to produce these results consistently but is also not that rare in producing long shot winners. Good for him.

[Tom]

I cannot see how you derive your conclusion.. I would say that in a game that is conducted on a mutual pool basis with a high take out, it is natural to expect almost all of the bettors to be long time losers, regardless of their betting styles. What might be responsible for the infrequent outlier, who will show some profitability, should only be a very large score that can cover a long series of losing bets, placing the bettor well in the black.

However, there were those outliers long before there were large scores.
At one time, there was WPS and Daily Doubles only.

[DeltaLover]

However, there were those outliers long before there were large scores.
At one time, there was WPS and Daily Doubles only.


Back then, the game was very different and from what I know the take out was significantly lesser than today... I have not been there, but I assume that parlay betting had to be very popular among the bettors of this era.

[sjk]

People are doing fine betting to win and exactas. Big scores are not the only road to success.

[DeltaLover]

People are doing fine betting to win and exactas. Big scores are not the only road to success.


Sorry, I have to disagree...

[ReplayRandall]

Sorry, I have to disagree...

Delta, so we have a starting point, what do you consider the minimum amount won in a race(s), vertical or horizontal, to constitute a "score"?

[DeltaLover]

Delta, so we have a starting point, what do you consider the minimum amount won in a race(s), vertical or horizontal, to constitute a "score"?

As a rule of thump a big score starts from at least 15 times the total amount invested...

Personally, my best scores ever were in the range of 70 - 80 times the total investment

[sjk]

I had no idea it was so easy to make a big score. If 15 for 1 is the threshold I had 45 big scores last year

[DeltaLover]

I had no idea it was so easy to make a big score. If 15 for 1 is the threshold I had 45 big scores last year

For how much in absolute value each one? In my case if I bet a total of $500 per race and manage to exceed a $7,500 pay, I consider it a score, not the same of course, if I bet $50 and turn it to $750!

[sjk]

Do you work for the IRS?

[DeltaLover]

Do you work for the IRS?

[Wow!! You are very smart !!!]

Why do you care?

[sjk]

My income is between me, my accountant and the IRS. I guess you don't qualify.

[ReplayRandall]

As a rule of thump a big score starts from at least 15 times the total amount invested...

Personally, my best scores ever were in the range of 70 - 80 times the total investment


So when playing a $100 exacta 2 by 4, such as 1-7/ 1-2-4-7 with total cost of $600, the bet wins and the $1 exacta comes back at $90, the total win comes back at $9000. This is 15 times the total amount invested, thus qualifing by your criteria as a big score. My question then is, what is wrong with SJK's post?

[DeltaLover]

My income is between me, my accountant and the IRS. I guess you don't qualify.

So, please stay out of conversations about big scores... Keep your scores to you and your accountant... OK??

[Tom]

Back then, the game was very different and from what I know the take out was significantly lesser than today... I have not been there, but I assume that parlay betting had to be very popular among the bettors of this era.

Not offered at the tracks.
WPS and DD, then the Q came along.
Parlay might have been added at one point, but never saw a long line at that window. W, WP windows were packed.

[ReplayRandall]

Not offered at the tracks.
WPS and DD, then the Q came along.
Parlay might have been added at one point, but never saw a long line at that window. W, WP windows were packed.

At Santa Anita and Del Mar, wagering slips were available for parlays since the '80's. Tom, are you talking farther back than that?

[Tom]

So when playing a $100 exacta 2 by 4, such as 1-7/ 1-2-4-7 with total cost of $600, the bet wins and the $1 exacta comes back at $90, the total win comes back at $9000. This is 15 times the total amount invested, thus qualifing by your criteria as a big score. My question then is, what is wrong with SJK's post?

Nothing.
It all comes down to how much did you bet and how much did you get back.
How you got it back is meaningless.

[Tom]

At Santa Anita and Del Mar, wagering slips were available for parlays since the '80's. Tom, are you talking farther back than that?

I'm talking the late 60's and 70's.
I seem to recall parlay wagers, but they were never a big deal at Finger Lakes.

[Poindexter]

First off I love the play made by the bettor. He saw a longshot he liked a lot, singled him on a small ticket in the jackpot 6 and by singling a near 50-1 shot he gave himself a chance for the $300,000 carryover. VERY WELL DONE.

Delta, not sure why you are so skeptical about straight betting as a way to derive serious income from the game. It is all simple math. If you can accurately assess the chances of a horse winning and only bet in value situations, you will win. That is a big if, but it can be done and is done by some(most who do it, do it with the aid of rebates). Properly size your bets(win and exacta), bet within the confines of your bankoll and there is no gamblers ruin. Start off with a 25k(or whatever number you want) bankroll win 10k, raise br to 30 k, win 10 more br to 35K Your putting away money as you win and your raising your bankroll as you win as well to set yourself up to bet bigger and win more(maybe you only want to raise br 5 k for every 15 k you win).......Sure somewhere down the line you will have some bad runs, but a with properly sized bets your bankroll should ride you through the bad runs and assuming you keep betting true value plays you will ultimately get back ahead of the game no matter how bad a run you go on. If you lose your bankroll chances are pretty good you are not accurately assessing each horses true chances of winning or you are not sizing your bets properly. Since we are human, probably not a bad idea to have a big cushion(in other words you have $10,000 you want to devote to racing, use a $4000 to $5000 bankroll and progress from there).


Do not get me wrong, I love the super exotics(and I do think they are a good way to increase your edge as I believe that a good percentage of the pools are "public" money), but I certainly am not out to criticize those who abstain from them. They are a whole different ball game and often set you on an emotional rollercoaster that can be tough to deal with(eg missed out on a 12k pick 4 because I required 1 of 3 top choice to win and a straight ticket would have scored, or tripled a race instead of spreading it to make the play affordable and bang a longshot contender wins that race and it pays 15 k, or was live for 32K in the pick 5 and lose by an 1/4 of an inch to a horse who ends up paying $700..............there is a lot of emotional turmoil and bankroll ramifications that go on with the super exotics and frankly I do no think most horse players are equipped to deal with them. especially if this is or you want it to be a major part of your income). The guy who bet $400 to win on a 4-1 shot only has to worry about whether that 4-1 was indeed a good bet. If he keys him in exactas, trifectas(did he use the right horses)....

There are a lot of ways to attack this game and there is no right or wrong choice. What works for me may not work for you and vice versa. We all have different styles and abilities(I may suck at superfectas and be great with Pick 4's while Joe is a master of superfectas and high 5's, while Fred is a master of picking 40% winners at 2-1 +, but has no ideas who will run 2nd or 3rd and comes up with about 1 bet a week...). Also we all different skill levels and different tolerances to winning and losing and risk.

This is a public forum, nobody is going to come on here and tell you they win $175,000 a year betting horses and they certainly are not going to give you a blueprint on how they do it. That being said there is a lot to learn on this board and certainly a lot of motivation by knowing that there are people out there grinding out nice incomes.

[DeltaLover]

I'm talking the late 60's and 70's.
I seem to recall parlay wagers, but they were never a big deal at Finger Lakes.

I have to assume that even if parlay slips did not exist then, there should had been bettors manually executing them...

[cutchemist42]

So horse had a top a few races back , still put up early speed in last couple since top, and then that speed carried again to a win. I don't play GP, but this type of horse is a good one to have 3-4 deep. I applaud him for singling that horse though and yeah, his opinion of that horse being 45-1 as bad is spot on.

[DeltaLover]

First off I love the play made by the bettor. He saw a longshot he liked a lot, singled him on a small ticket in the jackpot 6 and by singling a near 50-1 shot he gave himself a chance for the $300,000 carryover. VERY WELL DONE.

Delta, not sure why you are so skeptical about straight betting as a way to derive serious income from the game. It is all simple math. If you can accurately assess the chances of a horse winning and only bet in value situations, you will win. That is a big if, but it can be done and is done by some(most who do it, do it with the aid of rebates). Properly size your bets(win and exacta), bet within the confines of your bankoll and there is no gamblers ruin. Start off with a 25k(or whatever number you want) bankroll win 10k, raise br to 30 k, win 10 more br to 35K Your putting away money as you win and your raising your bankroll as you win as well to set yourself up to bet bigger and win more(maybe you only want to raise br 5 k for every 15 k you win).......Sure somewhere down the line you will have some bad runs, but a with properly sized bets your bankroll should ride you through the bad runs and assuming you keep betting true value plays you will ultimately get back ahead of the game no matter how bad a run you go on. If you lose your bankroll chances are pretty good you are not accurately assessing each horses true chances of winning or you are not sizing your bets properly. Since we are human, probably not a bad idea to have a big cushion(in other words you have $10,000 you want to devote to racing, use a $4000 to $5000 bankroll and progress from there).


Do not get me wrong, I love the super exotics(and I do think they are a good way to increase your edge as I believe that a good percentage of the pools are "public" money), but I certainly am not out to criticize those who abstain from them. They are a whole different ball game and often set you on an emotional rollercoaster that can be tough to deal with(eg missed out on a 12k pick 4 because I required 1 of 3 top choice to win and a straight ticket would have scored, or tripled a race instead of spreading it to make the play affordable and bang a longshot contender wins that race and it pays 15 k, or was live for 32K in the pick 5 and lose by an 1/4 of an inch to a horse who ends up paying $700..............there is a lot of emotional turmoil and bankroll ramifications that go on with the super exotics and frankly I do no think most horse players are equipped to deal with them. especially if this is or you want it to be a major part of your income). The guy who bet $400 to win on a 4-1 shot only has to worry about whether that 4-1 was indeed a good bet. If he keys him in exactas, trifectas(did he use the right horses)....

There are a lot of ways to attack this game and there is no right or wrong choice. What works for me may not work for you and vice versa. We all have different styles and abilities(I may suck at superfectas and be great with Pick 4's while Joe is a master of superfectas and high 5's, while Fred is a master of picking 40% winners at 2-1 +, but has no ideas who will run 2nd or 3rd and comes up with about 1 bet a week...). Also we all different skill levels and different tolerances to winning and losing and risk.

This is a public forum, nobody is going to come on here and tell you they win $175,000 a year betting horses and they certainly are not going to give you a blueprint on how they do it. That being said there is a lot to learn on this board and certainly a lot of motivation by knowing that there are people out there grinding out nice incomes.

Of course..

In theory it works the way you are describing it here although I can see some obstacles to this approach..

Betting in win, place, show or exacta polls, it is very easy to reach the point where your bet is significantly affecting payouts, limiting your profitability margin to a large extend.

More than this, the more individual bets you are placing, the more you are affected by the take out...

Take as an example a sequence of parlay win bets compared to a corresponding long exotic... In the case of the ticket of this thread, a win parlay would had reached a figure well over $20K on each of the seven picks of the last race, not only affecting the price of the winner but also ending up paying well over 20K just for the rake! Based on these, I am sure that nobody is going to argue, that this is an extremely wrong way of betting and should be avoided by any means...

This is an extreme example, but the same concept is applicable (under a different scale) to any other long exotic, either if this is a double, a P3 P4 or P5....

Surely, if we had the option to bet fixed odds as they do in Europe, things would have been completely different, but unfortunately this is not the case, so we have to adapt to what we currently have...

[Stillriledup]

i can't stand this bet, i hit a non jackpot that included a $60 horse that i happened to have singled,a $27, $17, and 3 others that paid $6 or less and split it with 5 others.

the money usually goes to people that don't support that handle or the game. and they can't handicap either, they do it with loads of money. when they win, the money never returns to the game..

if this game was half smart they would get rid of all these high multiple exotic wagers and go back to straight bets, a daily double and 3 perfecta's. i know its not happening ever, i am just wishing.

I don't mind this bet, at Gulfstream only and only in the Rainbow 6. Too many other tracks piggybacking this, its a plethora of jackpot bets, too many people doing this when they werent the originators of the idea or concept.

Having a couple of them is fine, but there are just too many of these bets in American racing, that's the bigger problem i see.

[Poindexter]

Of course..

In theory it works the way you are describing it here although I can see some obstacles to this approach..

Betting in win, place, show or exacta polls, it is very easy to reach the point where your bet is significantly affecting payouts, limiting your profitability margin to a large extend.

More than this, the more individual bets you are placing, the more you are affected by the take out...

Take as an example a sequence of parlay win bets compared to a corresponding long exotic... In the case of the ticket of this thread, a win parlay would had reached a figure well over $20K on each of the seven picks of the last race, not only affecting the price of the winner but also ending up paying well over 20K just for the rake! Based on these, I am sure that nobody is going to argue, that this is an extremely wrong way of betting and should be avoided by any means...

This is an extreme example, but the same concept is applicable (under a different scale) to any other long exotic, either if this is a double, a P3 P4 or P5....

Surely, if we had the option to bet fixed odds as they do in Europe, things would have been completely different, but unfortunately this is not the case, so we have to adapt to what we currently have...


There are a lot of ways to deal with these issues. Bet the tracks with larger pools. Spread your money around. Key a horse in the Win Pool, the Place Pool, Show Pool if you so desire, 4 position in a super, 3 positions in a trifecta, 2 positions in an exacta, Single in a double and/or pick 3.......Pick 6. Become a very big bettor and get large rebates.....Then of course there is volume. Play 6 tracks a day if that works for you....

But you cannot do any of this until you can consistently win money by consistently and correctly identifying value and betting it however you do so. My focus as a horseplayer is learning how to win consistently (bet actual value and not perceived value consistently) . Once I can win consistently and grow a bankroll then I can worry about how and where to spread my money around. If my bankroll doesn't grow than obviously I have not met my objective of learning how to win consistently.

[Poindexter]

I don't mind this bet, at Gulfstream only and only in the Rainbow 6. Too many other tracks piggybacking this, its a plethora of jackpot bets, too many people doing this when they werent the originators of the idea or concept.

Having a couple of them is fine, but there are just too many of these bets in American racing, that's the bigger problem i see.

That is only because the decision makers in this industry feel that their broken model is not the reason the sport is failing and that competition from other forms of gambling is. For this reason they see any wager that can generate large carryovers or "jackpots" as the sole cure to their dire situation.

[Stillriledup]

That is only because the decision makers in this industry feel that their broken model is not the reason the sport is failing and that competition from other forms of gambling is. For this reason they see any wager that can generate large carryovers or "jackpots" as the sole cure to their dire situation.

No doubt.

[lamboguy]

if you are a handicapper, you can't even look at value until you figure out which are the stronger or weaker races. everyone has their own way of doing it, some people like to look at the time of the race, other's will look at the separation of horses in the race at the finish. i have my own way of looking at it, but you have to do something and stay consistent. in the long run it really doesn't mean that much if a horse earns a big number but faced a bunch of bum's it don't help.

[lamboguy]

I don't mind this bet, at Gulfstream only and only in the Rainbow 6. Too many other tracks piggybacking this, its a plethora of jackpot bets, too many people doing this when they werent the originators of the idea or concept.

Having a couple of them is fine, but there are just too many of these bets in American racing, that's the bigger problem i see.the reason why i hate it is because the track can buy out the every combination at a discount to us and guarantee a carryover or hit the ticket by themselves.

[Robert Fischer]

This thread seems to have a lot of imagination and a lot of opinion driving it.

That isn't a bad thing, if it entertains you, or if it allows you to find a truth within that construct that works for you.

[Tom]

I have to assume that even if parlay slips did not exist then, there should had been bettors manually executing them...
Through bookies...just how many bets do you suppose were being made like that? And how many big scores do you think a bookie would pay out?