Horse of the Year

[mostpost]

The finalists have been announced. Who do you think should win and why.
Bayern
California Chrome
Main Sequence

[OTM Al]

The finalists have been announced. Who do you think should win and why.
Bayern
California Chrome
Main Sequence

Main Sequence. Beat the best field BC day. Look at what the second place finisher did in his previous and then subsequent races. 4 for 4 all top end Gr 1 races. Choosing between Bayern and Chrome is just splitting hairs and both had consistency issues during the year. Main Sequence did not.

[zico20]

The finalists have been announced. Who do you think should win and why.
Bayern
California Chrome
Main Sequence

My vote is for CC. However, it would not bother me in the least if Bayern won. I love both of them and wish they could be co-champs. They both had excellent years with close records and money won.

Main Sequence, IMO, did not run enough races to deserve it. Had he won two more races then he could be considered.

[arw629]

All are deserving IMO....I don't understand how someone can feel so strongly about one or the other....My vote would be for CC, but I would understand why someone would vote for one of the other candidates.

[TMQ]

Chrome will win, though I think Bayern is more deserving!

[ArlJim78]

CC will probably win although I think it should go to Main Sequence.
CC and Bayern both had nice campaigns but each had blemishes on their records.

[zico20]

CC will probably win although I think it should go to Main Sequence.
CC and Bayern both had nice campaigns but each had blemishes on their records.

What if CC had been injured after the Preakness and not raced again. He would not have had any blemishes. Would he then have gotten your vote over Main Sequence? I think a horse needs to run more than four times to get HOY. IMO. Just curious as to what you think had that happened.

[NTamm1215]

CC will probably win although I think it should go to Main Sequence.
CC and Bayern both had nice campaigns but each had blemishes on their records.

Is Horse of the Year really about horses that don't lose a race in a given year? Racing was better when horsemen were willing to lose challenging races.

[ArlJim78]

What if CC had been injured after the Preakness and not raced again. He would not have had any blemishes. Would he then have gotten your vote over Main Sequence? I think a horse needs to run more than four times to get HOY. IMO. Just curious as to what you think had that happened.
No difference. If Chrome was injured after the Preakness it would mean that he only raced against restricted company, so he still doesn't get the nod over Main Sequence who ran against top open company each time.

I'm in agreement that a HOY should race more than four times, but compared to the others I say Main Sequences four open company grade ones put him in front of the others this year.

[ArlJim78]

Is Horse of the Year really about horses that don't lose a race in a given year? Racing was better when horsemen were willing to lose challenging races.
No it's not simply about not losing a race. And while I agree racing is better when horseman run their horses more frequently, I just don't know how Bayern or Chrome can make a solid claim on the title.
Frankly I think all three had exceptional campaigns and I can see some reasoning for picking any of them for the title. All I'm saying is if I had a vote it would be Main Sequence.

[classhandicapper]

There are no major knocks on Main Sequence, but there are reasons to think he won't get it.

1. In this country, HOTY generally goes to a dirt horse unless there are no solid candidates on dirt and there's an outstanding turf horse. IMO, CC and Bayern are both legitimate candidates.

2. He only had 4 starts.

3. Some would argue that other than the BC Turf, the fields he beat previously were soft Grade 1s.

[dilanesp]

I'd vote for Bayern. Personally I think there should be no HOTY. There's no reason to give out the award in years where nobody does enough.

But since they spend a ton of money on the banquet, Bayern accomplished the most of the three. The races later in the year, and especially the BC Classic against open competition, are more difficult to win than the Derby and Preakness, and a bunch of Derby preps.

But having said that, none of the three would be a BAD choice.

[Some_One]

CC didn't win a single unrestricted race in his campaign, I just can't vote for him for any of the year end honours.

Funny how this year noone forgets CC's spring eventhough he didn't win anything significant in the fall, while last year everyone forgot Game on Dude's spring because of his performance in the fall.

So my list has him not in the top 3 replaced by Adelaide

[PaceAdvantage]

Sorry to see Untapable didn't make the top three.

My vote would go to Main Sequence without a doubt.

[biggestal99]

Chrome will win, though I think Bayern is more deserving!

+1

Allan

[biggestal99]

Sorry to see Untapable didn't make the top three.

My vote would go to Main Sequence without a doubt.

Hard tosee untap when bayern squished her like a ripe tomato.

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

Hard tosee untap when bayern squished her like a ripe tomato.

AllanHard to see CC when Bayern beat him 2 of 3, including going 10 panels...and squished him at 9 furlongs to boot...

[luisbe]

I believe SB is the best horse I've seen last year but because that's so subjective Bayern winning the Classic leaves no doubt he should be crowned.

[Cratos]

The finalists have been announced. Who do you think should win and why.
Bayern
California Chrome
Main Sequence

My vote would be: Bayern - HOTY

CC - 3yo of the year

Main Sequence - Turf HOTY

[JustRalph]

Hard to see CC when Bayern beat him 2 of 3, including going 10 panels...and squished him at 9 furlongs to boot...

Just found out my Ancestors were from some place in Germany called Bayern. That and the pissed off cowboy seal it for me.

I'm voting for the turf horse :lol:

[mostpost]

No difference. If Chrome was injured after the Preakness it would mean that he only raced against restricted company, so he still doesn't get the nod over Main Sequence who ran against top open company each time.

I'm in agreement that a HOY should race more than four times, but compared to the others I say Main Sequences four open company grade ones put him in front of the others this year.
I do not agree that Main Sequence ran against top open company each time. All of his races were restricted to the turf. He never faced Wise Dan. He never-in his life-ran on the dirt.

A turf horse can be Horse Of The Year, but not when there are so many strong main track candidates.

[mostpost]

Sorry to see Untapable didn't make the top three.

My vote would go to Main Sequence without a doubt.
Untapable?? Bwahahahahaha. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[mostpost]

CC didn't win a single unrestricted race in his campaign, I just can't vote for him for any of the year end honours.

Funny how this year noone forgets CC's spring eventhough he didn't win anything significant in the fall, while last year everyone forgot Game on Dude's spring because of his performance in the fall.

So my list has him not in the top 3 replaced by Adelaide
So now we are considering the Santa Anita Derby, The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as restricted races? That is foolishness. There is a reason why races are written exclusively for three year olds early in the year; it has to do with maturity. The question is how do they fare later against the older horses?
Quite well thank you. Shared Belief won the Awesome Again beating older horses. Shared Belief won and Toast of New York finished second in the Pacific Classic. Tonalist won the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Hoppurtunity-not one of the top three year olds won the Clark Handicap while Constitutional finished third.

And in the Breeder's Cup Classic the top four horses were three year olds.
California Chrome may not have won any races in which older horses competed, but he did finish ahead of every older horse he faced.

Who the hell is Adelaide??

[mostpost]

CC didn't win a single unrestricted race in his campaign, I just can't vote for him for any of the year end honours.

Funny how this year noone forgets CC's spring eventhough he didn't win anything significant in the fall, while last year everyone forgot Game on Dude's spring because of his performance in the fall.

So my list has him not in the top 3 replaced by Adelaide
Some_One is pulling our leg here. Adelaide raced twice in the USA this year, winning the Secretarial Stakes and finishing third in the Belmont Derby. He has never run on dirt. Some_how, Some_one thinks Adelaide should replace a horse who has five Grade One wins on the list of nominees for Horse Of The Year. Some_nerve.

[Some_One]

So now we are considering the Santa Anita Derby, The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as restricted races?
Yes
There is a reason why races are written exclusively for three year olds early in the year; it has to do with maturity.

I understand that, however how can you give an award for best of to someone who has run in restricted races?

Quite well thank you. Shared Belief won the Awesome Again beating older horses. Shared Belief won and Toast of New York finished second in the Pacific Classic. Tonalist won the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Hoppurtunity-not one of the top three year olds won the Clark Handicap while Constitutional finished third.

I have no issues with those horses, my issue is with CC

And in the Breeder's Cup Classic the top four horses were three year olds.
California Chrome may not have won any races in which older horses competed, but he did finish ahead of every older horse he faced.


But not Toasty nor Bayern

Who the hell is Adelaide??

2nd Belmont Derby G1, Winner Secertariat S G1, Winner Cox Plate (Australian version of BC Classic) and 4th in the Prix Niel G2 (Arc Prep, still a better race that CC's Hollywood Derby)

[mostpost]

My vote would be: Bayern - HOTY

CC - 3yo of the year

Main Sequence - Turf HOTY

How can that be? If a horse is a three year old and is voted HOTY, by definition he has to also be three year old of the year. You can be three year old of the year and not be horse of the year, but you cannot lose HOTY to another three year old.

[dilanesp]

So now we are considering the Santa Anita Derby, The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as restricted races? That is foolishness. There is a reason why races are written exclusively for three year olds early in the year; it has to do with maturity. The question is how do they fare later against the older horses?
Quite well thank you. Shared Belief won the Awesome Again beating older horses. Shared Belief won and Toast of New York finished second in the Pacific Classic. Tonalist won the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Hoppurtunity-not one of the top three year olds won the Clark Handicap while Constitutional finished third.

And in the Breeder's Cup Classic the top four horses were three year olds.
California Chrome may not have won any races in which older horses competed, but he did finish ahead of every older horse he faced.

Who the hell is Adelaide??

For your information, there are races for 3 year olds and up for much of the year. 3 year olds made sport of winning the Metropolitan Handicap, which used to be on Memorial Day.

And way back when the Santa Anita Handicap, in the FIRST WEEK OF MARCH AT A MILE AND A QUARTER, was won by a 3 year old, nosing out a Hall of Famer.

The reason 3 year olds don't run against older horses that early, for the most part, isn't "maturity". It's that they would lose. Races against other 3 year olds are EASIER.

Which is why the Triple Crown, even though it is obviously the thing in racing that gets the most publicity, generally doesn't decide end of year honors. The fall races against open competition are simply much harder to win than a Triple Crown race is.

[Fager Fan]

No difference. If Chrome was injured after the Preakness it would mean that he only raced against restricted company, so he still doesn't get the nod over Main Sequence who ran against top open company each time.

I'm in agreement that a HOY should race more than four times, but compared to the others I say Main Sequences four open company grade ones put him in front of the others this year.

Main Sequence, before showing up in the U.S. in July of 2014, had last won in 2012 and had run 10 races in between. Since his U.S. arrival, he reeled off 4 straight G1s, and with a trainer who most would agree isn't juicing the horse. So what do you reckon could explain this turnaround? Think maybe it could be the lack of top competition?

It's amazing that so many don't recognize the quality differences between our turf and dirt horses. And you think age-restrictions are a big deal? When talking of the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races, which are some of if not the hardest race(s) in the world to win?

[Fager Fan]

Sorry to see Untapable didn't make the top three.

My vote would go to Main Sequence without a doubt.

She got trounced by the boys, so can't see how she can be said to be the best of all who raced in 2014.

Main Sequence hardly deserves the turf award with a paltry 4 starts, much less the level of competition he met when talking of HOY.

[Fager Fan]

My vote would be: Bayern - HOTY

CC - 3yo of the year

Main Sequence - Turf HOTY

If Bayern isn't who you think is the best 3yo, how can you think him best across all the divisions?

Besides, if you're a voter, you have to vote for one of your divisional champ picks as HOY.

[Fager Fan]

For your information, there are races for 3 year olds and up for much of the year. 3 year olds made sport of winning the Metropolitan Handicap, which used to be on Memorial Day.

And way back when the Santa Anita Handicap, in the FIRST WEEK OF MARCH AT A MILE AND A QUARTER, was won by a 3 year old, nosing out a Hall of Famer.

The reason 3 year olds don't run against older horses that early, for the most part, isn't "maturity". It's that they would lose. Races against other 3 year olds are EASIER.

Which is why the Triple Crown, even though it is obviously the thing in racing that gets the most publicity, generally doesn't decide end of year honors. The fall races against open competition are simply much harder to win than a Triple Crown race is.

They'd lose due to lack of maturity in most cases. Some are simply more talented to win over those particular fields earlier on. The 3yos get to prove that they're as good as (or better than or worse than) the older group when they meet up with them in the Fall. The top 3 colts all proved they weren't just the top horses of their age group but the top horses among their age group and older.

[dilanesp]

They'd lose due to lack of maturity in most cases. Some are simply more talented to win over those particular fields earlier on. The 3yos get to prove that they're as good as (or better than or worse than) the older group when they meet up with them in the Fall. The top 3 colts all proved they weren't just the top horses of their age group but the top horses among their age group and older.

They get big weight breaks when they do it. Plenty of 3 year olds over the years have run competitive speed figures in route races in the Spring.

The problem is simply a restricted race versus an unrestricted race. In an unrestricted race, there's a greater chance that someone is around who can beat your horse. So you keep your three year old in his or her age group for as long as possible because the purses are big and the competition is restricted.

So bottom line, a Breeders' Cup Classic winner is always going to get more consideration for year end honors than a Derby winner.

[dilanesp]

Main Sequence, before showing up in the U.S. in July of 2014, had last won in 2012 and had run 10 races in between. Since his U.S. arrival, he reeled off 4 straight G1s, and with a trainer who most would agree isn't juicing the horse. So what do you reckon could explain this turnaround? Think maybe it could be the lack of top competition?

It's amazing that so many don't recognize the quality differences between our turf and dirt horses. And you think age-restrictions are a big deal? When talking of the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races, which are some of if not the hardest race(s) in the world to win?

I actually don't think the Derby is that hard to win. Plenty of bad horses win the Derby. In recent years, such luminaries of the American turf such as Orb, Super Saver, Mine that Bird, and Giacomo have won the thing. In the past, we've seen such all-time greats as Lil E. Tee, Sea Hero, Sunny's Halo, Gato Del Sol, Cannonade, Dust Commander, Venetian Way, and Middleground win the thing.

A lot of horses win the Derby by getting lucky.

And when you broaden it to Triple Crown races, it doesn't get much better. Actually, the Preakness, for whatever reason, tends to be a fairly honest race, although a couple of years ago Oxbow did steal it. Perhaps it's because all the idiots who run their unprepared horses in the Derby and finish 14th have gone home. But the Belmont is a dirt-pile-- at least 50 percent of the time, it is won by a nobody.

Again, the BC Classic is just much harder to win, because the fields are much stronger and deeper and not filled with inexprienced horses running because they have stupid owners.

I think plenty of horse racing fans confuse "gets the most publicity" with "is the most difficult race". The Derby gets the most publicity. But it isn't really a difficult race-- you just have to luckbox your way into a win much of the time.

[Fager Fan]

I actually don't think the Derby is that hard to win. Plenty of bad horses win the Derby. In recent years, such luminaries of the American turf such as Orb, Super Saver, Mine that Bird, and Giacomo have won the thing. In the past, we've seen such all-time greats as Lil E. Tee, Sea Hero, Sunny's Halo, Gato Del Sol, Cannonade, Dust Commander, Venetian Way, and Middleground win the thing.

A lot of horses win the Derby by getting lucky.

And when you broaden it to Triple Crown races, it doesn't get much better. Actually, the Preakness, for whatever reason, tends to be a fairly honest race, although a couple of years ago Oxbow did steal it. Perhaps it's because all the idiots who run their unprepared horses in the Derby and finish 14th have gone home. But the Belmont is a dirt-pile-- at least 50 percent of the time, it is won by a nobody.

Again, the BC Classic is just much harder to win, because the fields are much stronger and deeper and not filled with inexprienced horses running because they have stupid owners.

I think plenty of horse racing fans confuse "gets the most publicity" with "is the most difficult race". The Derby gets the most publicity. But it isn't really a difficult race-- you just have to luckbox your way into a win much of the time.

Ask any trainer or owner and they'll tell you which race is more difficult to win. Perhaps you think they're also confused fans.

No doubt the Classic has more proven horses, but then it's run in early November and is for the older horse division. The 3yo colts are still sorting themselves out in early May of their 3yo year. But it's 20 horses, all who have just a single shot at winning due to the age restriction, going a distance further than any have ever run, and there can be no hiccups along the way.

You want to list Derby winners who weren't truly top, top horses? In the much shorter history of the Classic, we have Proud Truth, Black Tie Affair, Arcangues, Cat Thief, Concern, Fort Larned, Raven's Pass, Drosselmeyer, and Volponi all with Classic trophies on their mantles.

[Redboard]

HOY: Main Sequence
3YR: Bayern
I wouldn’t give CC anything, because of Coburn’s comments after the Belmont. The three triple crown races are important to the survival of the sport. They are responsible, more than any others, for bringing in new fans. In 2014, 15 Million watched the derby, 10 million watch the Preakness, and 20 million watched the Belmont. Any other race brings a fraction of this. I wouldn’t care what anyone says after any other race, Breeders Cup or whatever. Most of those watchers are horse racing fans anyway who have seen all the crap that one sees when following the sport for any length of time. The guy should understand the big picture. New fans not only bring new bettors but new owners. His comments were detrimental.

[Frost king]

All of your examples are valid and have one common thread to them except for Concern. They all won because the three year old crop was crappy. They were all older horses. Concern was the only three year in your group.

[Fager Fan]

HOY: Main Sequence
3YR: Bayern
I wouldn’t give CC anything, because of Coburn’s comments after the Belmont. The three triple crown races are important to the survival of the sport. They are responsible, more than any others, for bringing in new fans. In 2014, 15 Million watched the derby, 10 million watch the Preakness, and 20 million watched the Belmont. Any other race brings a fraction of this. I wouldn’t care what anyone says after any other race, Breeders Cup or whatever. Most of those watchers are horse racing fans anyway who have seen all the crap that one sees when following the sport for any length of time. The guy should understand the big picture. New fans not only bring new bettors but new owners. His comments were detrimental.

Which all has absolutely zero to do with the horse's performances, which is what the award is based upon.

Besides, does anyone really think that Phipps and his non-existent personality did anything to bring in fans to the sport when Orb won? People crane to see car wrecks and the Jerry Springer show. Cobern's comments were mild compared to either, and added spice that made fans at least feel some emotion one way or the other.

A vote for Main Sequence is a joke. The horse couldn't even win a minor stake in Europe in 10+ tries until he comes over here. Again, people seem to have no understanding of the level of our turf competition over here. A G1 turf race isn't equivalent to a G1 dirt race.

[Fager Fan]

All of your examples are valid and have one common thread to them except for Concern. They all won because the three year old crop was crappy. They were all older horses. Concern was the only three year in your group.

I wasn't even thinking of their ages (just that the winners weren't all the beasts Dilan seems to think) but that's interesting to note.

[ReplayRandall]

You want to list Derby winners who weren't truly top, top horses? In the much
shorter history of the Classic, we have Proud Truth, Black Tie Affair,
Arcangues, Cat Thief, Concern, Fort Larned, Raven's Pass, Drosselmeyer, and
Volponi all with Classic trophies on their mantles.

All of your examples are valid and have one common thread to them except for Concern. They all won because the three year old crop was crappy. They were all older horses. Concern was the only three year in your group.


Sorry, but Raven's Pass and Cat Thief were three year olds as well, when they won the BC Classic......

[ReplayRandall]

Sorry, but Raven's Pass and Cat Thief were three year olds as well, when they won the BC Classic......


Add Proud Truth to that list in 1985:

Here's the Ten 3 year olds (win rate 33%) who've won the Classic out of 30 runnings:

1985Proud Truth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Truth)
1989Sunday Silence (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunday_Silence)
1990Unbridled (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unbridled)
1992A.P. Indy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.P._Indy)
1994Concern (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concern_(horse))
1999Cat Thief (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat_Thief)
2000Tiznow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiznow)
2007Curlin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curlin)
2008Raven's Pass (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven%27s_Pass)
2014 Bayern

[dilanesp]

Ask any trainer or owner and they'll tell you which race is more difficult to win. Perhaps you think they're also confused fans.

No doubt the Classic has more proven horses, but then it's run in early November and is for the older horse division. The 3yo colts are still sorting themselves out in early May of their 3yo year. But it's 20 horses, all who have just a single shot at winning due to the age restriction, going a distance further than any have ever run, and there can be no hiccups along the way.

You want to list Derby winners who weren't truly top, top horses? In the much shorter history of the Classic, we have Proud Truth, Black Tie Affair, Arcangues, Cat Thief, Concern, Fort Larned, Raven's Pass, Drosselmeyer, and Volponi all with Classic trophies on their mantles.

Proud Truth won multiple major stakes. Black Tie Affair was Horse of the Year and dominated the handicap division. Concern, Fort Larned and Drosselmeyer all had big wins other than the BC Classic. I will give you Arcangues, Cat Thief, and Raven's Pass. That's three questionable BC Classic winners in 30 years. (I would add Wild Again to the list, actually, so make it four.) That's a pretty honest race.

As for the Derby, if it is "hard to win", it is only in the same sense the lottery is hard to win-- because it measures luck and not skill. The BC Classic, most of the time, measures skill.

[Fager Fan]

Proud Truth won multiple major stakes. Black Tie Affair was Horse of the Year and dominated the handicap division. Concern, Fort Larned and Drosselmeyer all had big wins other than the BC Classic. I will give you Arcangues, Cat Thief, and Raven's Pass. That's three questionable BC Classic winners in 30 years. (I would add Wild Again to the list, actually, so make it four.) That's a pretty honest race.

As for the Derby, if it is "hard to win", it is only in the same sense the lottery is hard to win-- because it measures luck and not skill. The BC Classic, most of the time, measures skill.

Ironically enough, Proud Truth won the BC at 3, and never won another G1 against older horses. His G1 wins were all against restricted 3yos. After his BC win, his record went like this: 5th, 5th, 2nd, 5th, 5th, 4th, 1st (in the G2 Tidal), and finally a 2nd. So Proud Truth doesn't really help your argument.

I'll stick with my opinion on Fort Larned, Drosselmeyer, and Concern. I misspoke on Black Tie Affair, I meant Alphabet Soup. All of these were nice horses but not a top, top G1 calibre horse.

This totals 8 in 30 years, or 27%. You're going to have to find about 40 similar Derby winners instead of the few you mentioned.

[Frost king]

The Derby has become nothing more than a glorified NW3X allowance race today, that is restricted to colts only.

[PaceAdvantage]

How can that be? If a horse is a three year old and is voted HOTY, by definition he has to also be three year old of the year. You can be three year old of the year and not be horse of the year, but you cannot lose HOTY to another three year old.There is no law against it...and we'll probably see some weirdness given it's such a crappy year in many divisions...

[PaceAdvantage]

She got trounced by the boys, so can't see how she can be said to be the best of all who raced in 2014.

Main Sequence hardly deserves the turf award with a paltry 4 starts, much less the level of competition he met when talking of HOY.Your mistake is, you view HOY as some sort of matchup whereby, if we put all the horses eligible for HOY into an actual race, whoever wins the race should be HOY.

That's not really how it works...for instance, do you think the 2yo Favorite Trick would have beaten all of his HOY rivals if indeed they set up an actual race for them to compete in?

'Nuff said.

[clocker7]

Who had the overall best season? Not just wins. The complete resume?

[reckless]

If I had a vote, it would be Bayern for Horse of the Year, with Main Sequence, then California Chrome in that order.

Bayern was brilliant winning the Woody Stephens, Haskell, Pa Derby and Breeder's Cup Classic.

I just hope all the controversy surrounding the BC Classic will not 'hurt' Bayern's legit chances. I think it is very possible that he and Cali Chrome might 'split' the vote opening the way for a deserving Main Sequence.

I wouldn't go bonkers if either of the other two in fact finish ahead of Bayern in the voting. It was a very good and interesting year, for a change.

[Fager Fan]

Your mistake is, you view HOY as some sort of matchup whereby, if we put all the horses eligible for HOY into an actual race, whoever wins the race should be HOY.

That's not really how it works...for instance, do you think the 2yo Favorite Trick would have beaten all of his HOY rivals if indeed they set up an actual race for them to compete in?

'Nuff said.

Your mistake is that you're using a horse's argument for winning their divisional championship as the same one for winning HOY. I at least have two sets of criteria: A) Best in a division wins the divisional Eclipse, B) Best of all the divisional champs gets the HOY.

No one disputes that an occasional bad vote (Favorite Trick) has been made through the years. Had he turned out to be the next Secretariat, I guess it wouldn't have looked as bad as it turned out (drugged by his trainer along with the 2yo filly champ that year).

[Fager Fan]

If I had a vote, it would be Bayern for Horse of the Year, with Main Sequence, then California Chrome in that order.

Bayern was brilliant winning the Woody Stephens, Haskell, Pa Derby and Breeder's Cup Classic.

I just hope all the controversy surrounding the BC Classic will not 'hurt' Bayern's legit chances. I think it is very possible that he and Cali Chrome might 'split' the vote opening the way for a deserving Main Sequence.

I wouldn't go bonkers if either of the other two in fact finish ahead of Bayern in the voting. It was a very good and interesting year, for a change.

We should expect a HOY to make more than 4 starts in a year. How much lower shall we take our expectations? 3 starts? 2?

[Stillriledup]

Who had the overall best season? Not just wins. The complete resume?

How about thinking outside the box a bit. Since the main debate centers around Bayern and CC and since both have had more wins than losses on the year, lets, for arguments sake, say the wins all cancel each other out. Both horses were impressive in victory more than once, they're both fantastic horses with very little separating them.

So, if you analyze the LOSSES, that's where maybe you can separate these two fine runners.

By NOT analyzing the losses, we're essentially saying that if you don't actually win, it doesn't matter how far back you finish or how you race, we just don't look at those races much at all, we just look at the wins.

But if wins are comparable, why not give the benefit of the doubt to the horse who "Raced better" in defeat in the races that he didn't actually win?

[luisbe]

How about thinking outside the box a bit. Since the main debate centers around Bayern and CC and since both have had more wins than losses on the year, lets, for arguments sake, say the wins all cancel each other out. Both horses were impressive in victory more than once, they're both fantastic horses with very little separating them.

So, if you analyze the LOSSES, that's where maybe you can separate these two fine runners.

By NOT analyzing the losses, we're essentially saying that if you don't actually win, it doesn't matter how far back you finish or how you race, we just don't look at those races much at all, we just look at the wins.

But if wins are comparable, why not give the benefit of the doubt to the horse who "Raced better" in defeat in the races that he didn't actually win?

Go Pepper's Pride go!

[letswastemoney]

I'm glad Untapable isn't a nominee. The best horse should win, with some consideration to accomplishments, and she isn't the best.

[Stillriledup]

Go Pepper's Pride go!

You know she has a son that's amazingly good, right? He's won his only lifetime start for Baffert, but i don't know what's become of him since, hopefully all is well.

[OntheRail]

You know she has a son that's amazingly good, right? He's won his only lifetime start for Baffert, but i don't know what's become of him since, hopefully all is well.

PUNCTUATE... been working at SA the last listed was 5th @ 5F 1:01.4

[Stillriledup]

PUNCTUATE... been working at SA the last listed was 5th @ 5F 1:01.4

Thanks OTR. He's a serious horse, hopefully he can show what he's made of down the line.

[Redboard]

Which all has absolutely zero to do with the horse's performances, which is what the award is based upon. Besides, does anyone really think that Phipps and his non-existent personality did anything to bring in fans to the sport when Orb won?


Don’t know why you brought Dinny to the table but the answer to your question is a resounding “yes.” A man who truly cares about the sport and its athletes. The most honorable and respected families in racing’s history, IMO. He could win the Triple Crown the next 10 years, and his family would have still lost money in the long run.
Let me ask you this, if you were thinking about becoming an owner(and if you were you were most probably watching Coburn’s comments) , would that make you take out your checkbook? Never mind, you don’t have to answer that.

People crane to see car wrecks and the Jerry Springer show. Cobern's comments were mild compared to either, and added spice that made fans at least feel some emotion one way or the other.

Horse racing does not need another carwreck. That’s the one thing the industry doesn’t lack.

A vote for Main Sequence is a joke. The horse couldn't even win a minor stake in Europe in 10+ tries until he comes over here. Again, people seem to have no understanding of the level of our turf competition over here. A G1 turf race isn't equivalent to a G1 dirt race.

The Eclipse Awards are an North American thing, only races run over here count. Turf horses have won it before, including Wise Dan the last two years. Back in the day, our hockey teams would have gotten their clocks cleaned by the Russians, but they still awarded the Stanley Cup at the end of the year.

[OTM Al]

A vote for Main Sequence is a joke. The horse couldn't even win a minor stake in Europe in 10+ tries until he comes over here. Again, people seem to have no understanding of the level of our turf competition over here. A G1 turf race isn't equivalent to a G1 dirt race.

Though when he came over here he beat horses in the BC that have won world class stakes races. Flintshire for example was 2nd in the Arc this year before the BC and then won the HK Vase afterward. He was also second in the Coronation Cup and in the Prix Foy. That is world class level. Chiquita and Brown Panther are also G1 winners. Telescope doesn't stink either. This race was no joke and neither is the winner.

[PaceAdvantage]

Your mistake is that you're using a horse's argument for winning their divisional championship as the same one for winning HOY. I at least have two sets of criteria: A) Best in a division wins the divisional Eclipse, B) Best of all the divisional champs gets the HOY.

No one disputes that an occasional bad vote (Favorite Trick) has been made through the years. Had he turned out to be the next Secretariat, I guess it wouldn't have looked as bad as it turned out (drugged by his trainer along with the 2yo filly champ that year).Again, you're completely off base as to what these awards represent.

If he had turned out to be the next Secretariat? Doesn't matter one bit whether he did or didn't. The award is for that year.

Untapable dominated her division.
Main Sequence dominated his division.

Bayern and CC did not dominate anything. They each won a big race. At least one of them beat the other more than once...which is why if Bayern doesn't get this and CC does (assuming Main Sequence, who actually DESERVES it, doesn't get it), it will be the biggest atrocity since Zenyatta was hailed king of all horses.

How do you determine "best of all divisional champs?" Do you conjure up an imaginary race in your head with all the divisional champs and give HOY to the horse you think would win?

That's not how it's supposed to work. And in fact, is usually a ridiculous way of going about it.

[OntheRail]

It's called Horse of the Year... should be for 4 yr or older unless you have an outstanding colt or filly that's head and tails above the rest. None of the three yr olds have elevated themselves this year. So I'll take Main Sequence over the other choices.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's called Horse of the Year... should be for 4 yr or older unless you have an outstanding colt or filly that's head and tails above the rest. None of the three yr olds have elevated themselves this year. So I'll take Main Sequence over the other choices.There should be no "should be's when it comes to HOY.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm glad Untapable isn't a nominee. The best horse should win, with some consideration to accomplishments, and she isn't the best.There is no best horse this year. That's why Main Sequence cracked the top three.

Consistency was a lost art this year. Only Untapable and Main Sequence demonstrated such.

[classhandicapper]

The problem is that there is no standard for what the HOTY should be. Voters decide for themselves. So you are going to get votes based on accomplishments, who people think the best horse was, who had the greatest impact on the sport, who was the best horse relative to their own division, and all sorts of combinations and different weightings of the above.

[PaceAdvantage]

Though when he came over here he beat horses in the BC that have won world class stakes races. Flintshire for example was 2nd in the Arc this year before the BC and then won the HK Vase afterward. He was also second in the Coronation Cup and in the Prix Foy. That is world class level. Chiquita and Brown Panther are also G1 winners. Telescope doesn't stink either. This race was no joke and neither is the winner.Amen. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

The problem is that there is no standard for what the HOTY should be. Voters decide for themselves. So you are going to get votes based on accomplishments, who people think the best horse was, who had the greatest impact on the sport, who was the best horse relative to their own division, and all sorts of combinations and different weightings of the above.That's fine. It be what it be.

More often than not, they get it right. It's not rocket science... :lol:

[OntheRail]

There should be no "should be's when it comes to HOY.

That was a little tongue and cheek... PA. ;)

[JustRalph]

Though when he came over here he beat horses in the BC that have won world class stakes races. Flintshire for example was 2nd in the Arc this year before the BC and then won the HK Vase afterward. He was also second in the Coronation Cup and in the Prix Foy. That is world class level. Chiquita and Brown Panther are also G1 winners. Telescope doesn't stink either. This race was no joke and neither is the winner.

Al, I enjoy your grasp of the European racing. It adds very much to the discussion. I would have never known. :ThmbUp:

[appistappis]

maybe when they go to vote, Bayern's voters will knock the other voters out of the way and win by a slim margin.

[Stillriledup]

maybe when they go to vote, Bayern's voters will knock the other voters out of the way and win by a slim margin.
oShTJ90fC34

[Fager Fan]

Don’t know why you brought Dinny to the table but the answer to your question is a resounding “yes.” A man who truly cares about the sport and its athletes. The most honorable and respected families in racing’s history, IMO. He could win the Triple Crown the next 10 years, and his family would have still lost money in the long run.

Oh, please, what exactly has Dinny done for the sport? He has been the single most powerful man in racing for decades, and how's the sport been doing during that time? Straight into the hamper. What has he done to make real reforms? And I feel no great gratitude for a wealthy guy indulging in his hobby. He doesn't even buy at the sales, so he's not supporting the industry there, nor does he care to inject new blood into the stock he inherited.

Let me ask you this, if you were thinking about becoming an owner(and if you were you were most probably watching Coburn’s comments) , would that make you take out your checkbook? Never mind, you don’t have to answer that.

The average Joe doesn't know who Dinny Phipps is, nor do they care, and his lack of personality and charisma sure doesn't draw a single person to ownership or gambling on the sport. Someone may just think the sport is interesting, with someone to like or loathe, with Coburn. It's just a bunch of malarkey to try to say Coburn hurt the sport. Horses snapping their legs off in front of them hurts the sport. Illegal drugs hurt the sport. The Asmussens and Bafferts hurt the sport with their drug positives and horses dropping dead being reported in the news. Coburn being "colorful" didn't hurt a thing.


The Eclipse Awards are an North American thing, only races run over here count. Turf horses have won it before, including Wise Dan the last two years. Back in the day, our hockey teams would have gotten their clocks cleaned by the Russians, but they still awarded the Stanley Cup at the end of the year.

Clearly you and some others don't get it. This horse couldn't outrun Granny in Europe right up to late 2013. He shows up in the U.S. in 2014, and what do ya know, he's suddenly a 4-time G1 winner. Do you really figure he suddenly became that good, or do you think there must be another explanation? The fact is that our turf horses as a rule stink, which is why G3 Europeans become G1 winners here with great regularity.

You'd think a forum frequented by supposedly knowledgable handicappers would know how much better our dirt horses are than our turf horses.

[Fager Fan]

Again, you're completely off base as to what these awards represent.

If he had turned out to be the next Secretariat? Doesn't matter one bit whether he did or didn't. The award is for that year.

Untapable dominated her division.
Main Sequence dominated his division.

Bayern and CC did not dominate anything. They each won a big race. At least one of them beat the other more than once...which is why if Bayern doesn't get this and CC does (assuming Main Sequence, who actually DESERVES it, doesn't get it), it will be the biggest atrocity since Zenyatta was hailed king of all horses.

How do you determine "best of all divisional champs?" Do you conjure up an imaginary race in your head with all the divisional champs and give HOY to the horse you think would win?

That's not how it's supposed to work. And in fact, is usually a ridiculous way of going about it.

Sorry, but you're the one off base. A simple study of the history of the awards show what HOY is supposed to be, and it's who the voters think is the best single horse across all the divisions. Dominating a division is what the divisional award is for. You're using a redudant criteria for both awards.

And yes, it's very easy to reach a conclusion about which horse was the best horse of that year. Untapable had her chance to show she was equal or better than the 3yo colts, and she bombed. That knocks her right out of any thought that she was superior to them.

[clocker7]

American dirt horses are world class. Like Bayern or CC didn't beat anyone? Where were all of the invaders?

[Tom]

Other than each other, not much.
The older division was a joke this year.
3yos won by default. Nothing showed up.

[appistappis]

"Back in the day, our hockey teams would have gotten their clocks cleaned by the Russians, but they still awarded the Stanley Cup at the end of the year."

The Russians tried us in 1972 and with everything in their favour, we still beat them. God bless Phil Esposito.

[rastajenk]

Phil Esposito? :confused:

[reckless]

We should expect a HOY to make more than 4 starts in a year. How much lower shall we take our expectations? 3 starts? 2?

Yes, we should expect our horses to make more than four starts in a year but you must have noticed as I and others have that in his limited starts Main Sequence won them all.

As a reminder, the four races he won were all Grade I races: the Breeders' Cup Turf Classic, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, the Sword Dancer and the United Nations Handicap. Also, all were accomplished on four different turf courses.

Winning all four Grade I races is not exactly a good example for your point: How much lower shall we take our expectations?, now does it?

If you and the Eclipse Awards voters are taken aback that Main Sequence (1) is a turf horse; (2) had only four starts, then don't vote for or root for him.

My top choice is Bayern, and I said if either of the other two win the Eclipse Award as HOY that's fine with me too as the three are all worthy.

[Redboard]

.... we still beat them. God bless Phil Esposito.
You mean thank god for phantom illegal stick penalties and dirty play by Clarke and Van Imp. :D

[Fager Fan]

Yes, we should expect our horses to make more than four starts in a year but you must have noticed as I and others have that in his limited starts Main Sequence won them all.

As a reminder, the four races he won were all Grade I races: the Breeders' Cup Turf Classic, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, the Sword Dancer and the United Nations Handicap. Also, all were accomplished on four different turf courses.

Winning all four Grade I races is not exactly a good example for your point: How much lower shall we take our expectations?, now does it?

If you and the Eclipse Awards voters are taken aback that Main Sequence (1) is a turf horse; (2) had only four starts, then don't vote for or root for him.

My top choice is Bayern, and I said if either of the other two win the Eclipse Award as HOY that's fine with me too as the three are all worthy.

It's easier to be undefeated when you race so few times, and against such lousy company than it is when you race far more times and against far better company.

Again, the horse couldn't win in 10 of his past tries to crack the G1 and G2 levels in Europe. You have to go back 2 years to find when he did win, which was a G3 and an ungraded stakes. This horse wouldn't have won all four of his starts had he run against better competition than we have here in the U.S.

And yes, four starts shouldn't get a horse a divisional championship much less a HOY championship. We keep dumbing down the awards. It's time they wrote some guidelines and insist that a horse start at least 6 times in a year, at least twice in NA, to be considered for an Eclipse.

[clocker7]

Other than each other, not much.
The older division was a joke this year.
3yos won by default. Nothing showed up.
The reason why the 3 yos dominated this year was because the two previous classes sucked. The 2014 BC Classic runners would have humiliated 2013's.

[Frost king]

The funny thing is, that in NA, if you fail on dirt, your try turf as a last resort? Just like the so called G1 that California Chrome beat on the grass. They were all great grass horses were they not? It was after all a G1 on the grass.

[keithw84]

Some interesting things that have happened in the history of HOTY:
In 1981, John Henry won HOTY and Older Male
In 1984, John Henry won HOTY but did not win the divisional award

In 1983, HOTY All Along ran in the U.S. twice and at Woodbine once.

In 2006, HOTY Invasor had 4 wins in 4 starts in the U.S. and one finish out of the money in Dubai.

[appistappis]

You mean thank god for phantom illegal stick penalties and dirty play by Clarke and Van Imp. :D

no one was dirtier than the Russians (kicking and spitting) and van impe wasn't on the 72 team. We could have used him.

[biggestal99]

So now we are considering the Santa Anita Derby, The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as restricted races? That is foolishness. There is a reason why races are written exclusively for three year olds early in the year; it has to do with maturity. The question is how do they fare later against the older horses?
Quite well thank you. Shared Belief won the Awesome Again beating older horses. Shared Belief won and Toast of New York finished second in the Pacific Classic. Tonalist won the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Hoppurtunity-not one of the top three year olds won the Clark Handicap while Constitutional finished third.

And in the Breeder's Cup Classic the top four horses were three year olds.
California Chrome may not have won any races in which older horses competed, but he did finish ahead of every older horse he faced.

Who the hell is Adelaide??

Chrome also didn,t win a dirt race in the last months of the year

O for 3 and thats the hoty. Lol, more the horse of the first 5 months ala smarty jones,

Allan

[ReplayRandall]

Chrome also didn,t win a dirt race in the last months of the year

O for 3 and thats the hoty. Lol, more the horse of the first 5 months ala smarty jones,

Allan


I think you've made a mistake to ever put Smarty Jones in a negative light.......Truly one of the best for horse racing fans everywhere.

[biggestal99]

I think you've made a mistake to ever put Smarty Jones in a negative light.......Truly one of the best for horse racing fans everywhere.

Nope not disparaging sj ( i was and still am a huge fan of sj) still he did all his winning
In the first 5 months of the year, ghostzapper got hot in the fall and that was that.

Allan

[Frost king]

That would be like crowning the Super Bowl champion, Thanksgiving weekend. So why have the playoffs then? Is not the Breeder's Cup the season ending final? Oh yeah I forgot, you can call a mulligan, if you lose the playoff games. Only in horse racing, you can use the excuse, that the horse was not ready, he didn't like the surface, there was a bias, the horse was given mints that upset his stomach. The best line, was that he ran the best figure, but lost. The last time I checked, it was okay to be close in the game of horse shoes only. The rest of the time you are not rewarded for failure.

[Tom]

It's easier to be undefeated when you race so few times, and against such lousy company than it is when you race far more times and against far better company.

Main Sequence vs CC on the grass at 10 furlongs.
Who you gonna bet?

[biggestal99]

Main Sequence vs CC on the grass at 10 furlongs.
Who you gonna bet?

Sequence beat the arc second, 1 million times better then the hoss that ran second to cc.

Cc much better on dirt.

Allan

[theiman]

Although I am not a fan of only racing 4 times a year, whether in the US or overall, and getting HOY, there was a case for it when Ghostzapper won HOY back in 2004.

However, my major knock(s) on Main Sequence is that he runs at a distance/surface that maybe only 1-2% of the overall races in the US are carded at. Is the pool of horses that big in the US that we can really say he beat enough horses that are of quality to be HOY? His main competition, in the 3 non BC races, came from two horses, Imaging and Twilight Eclipse, that wound up winning only one race each for the year. I wonder how many people said after walking out of the track after the United Nations, Sword Dancer or the Turf Classic, we saw the HOY run today.

Congrats on the 4 for 4. Congrats on the BC win but its not enough in my book.

I think better cases can be made for Chrome, Bayern or even Shared Belief.

[Robert Fischer]

California Chrome was the star of the Triple Crown = He deserves the 3yo award. He drove the revenue for the big 3yo stuff.

Bayern was better than Chrome and he also got the better stuff on his record = HOY. I bet him every time he faced Chrome, from the preakness to the classic.


I DO NOT CARE that people think there is some rule that says if a 3yo wins the 3yo award that must automatically make him better than all 3yos.

I don't think like that.

In fact i don't care at all about either of these awards, i just made the post because i am grumpy and because i think differently about this stuff than most people, so it was something grumpy and different. :mad:

[Stillriledup]

How about leaving HOY vacant? If nobody is really worthy, why force it?

[The WindfallAngler]

I bet him every time he faced Chrome, from the preakness to the classic.:mad:Three whole times, eh?

[iceknight]

This Saturday 8pm ET!
http://www.hrtv.com/eclipseawards/

[Greyfox]

DRF fan vote produced the following result:

http://www2.drf.com/l/24632/2015-01-16/jgyvm/24632/66442/HOYVoteEmail1_16_winner.jpg (http://www2.drf.com/e/24632/events-eclipse/jh28x/517572709)

[letswastemoney]

I won't lose any sleep over who wins.

I really just want to become a better handicapper and make money. What horses win these awards doesn't affect that or which horses I'm a fan of.

[horses4courses]

Glad to see that dozens are posting away in anticipation of the big event!

Wake me up when it's over....... :lol:

[letswastemoney]

Once the HOTY is announced, I'm sure there will be complaints no matter which horse wins.

[horses4courses]

Once the HOTY is announced, I'm sure there will be complaints no matter which horse wins.

Yep. Happens most years.

At least we have another year of great racing ahead
of us to put together the next bunch of finalists. :ThmbUp:
The awards are secondary.

[Tom]

CC 3yo champ. A glimpse of the future?

[Tom]

Yes.

[ArlJim78]

HOY voting breakdown

143 California Chrome
53 Main Sequence
36 Bayern 15.5%

[Robert Fischer]

The voting was kind of silly, but I don't have a problem with it.

Chrome drove more revenue through the media, and he made the Belmont somewhat newsworthy.

That's hard for a horse to do, considering that racing does so little with the media.


Three whole times, eh?
For a handicapper to think a horse is a superior value to another horse 3 (whole) times, is fairly significant in one season.

[pandy]

I thought the voters got it right, California Chrome deserved top honors. I know some folks thought it may be close but Bayern most likely would not have won the Classic if he did not impede two of his main rivals at the start of the race, and he should have been disqualified but the judges choked under pressure. Chrome was a deserving winner.

[classhandicapper]

I actually thought Bayern was going to get it, but I suspect there were a lot of voters that believed he benefited from easy leads on biased tracks in the Haskell and at PARX and then the controversial start in the Classic. The bigger debate is whether trip handicapping should be part of the process.

However, IMO, this is far from a bad decision. CC won some of the most important races of the year and was possibly thwarted in the Belmont when he got stepped on and returned with an injury that required time off. He had a very very good early part of the year and finished well enough.

[alhattab]

Once the HOTY is announced, I'm sure there will be complaints no matter which horse wins.

The whole process is ridiculous and pointless to me- utterly meaningless. Either keep score based on actual performance in races or don't bother.

[cj]

The whole process is ridiculous and pointless to me- utterly meaningless. Either keep score based on actual performance in races or don't bother.

Agree, I had absolutely no interest in the show last night.

[Appy]

I see one upside to the subjective award charade.
With all the problems facing horse racing it is heartening there were several deserving candidates to consider.

[OntheRail]

Chromes HOY title will add some value to the next two starts for smart bettors (*).

The voters must of thought if a clean start was had in the Classic CC would of won for sure... I can't say that. And his nick on the shin in the Belmont was nothing compared to Big Brown's horrific injury at the start.

* Well maybe not if they really intend to run him in Dubai as Art eluded to... as he's no Curlin.

[rastajenk]

The whole process is ridiculous and pointless to me- utterly meaningless. Either keep score based on actual performance in races or don't bother.
It kept people talking during the post-BC downtime, what in golf has been referred to as the "silly season." That's a rather harmless benefit. If HOY was points-based, it wouldn't even have that small benefit.

[Stillriledup]

The whole process is ridiculous and pointless to me- utterly meaningless. Either keep score based on actual performance in races or don't bother.

You don't mean "actual performance" you mean who hits the line first. Two different things. Some methodologies give higher performance figures to horses who don't actually hit the line first.

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought the voters got it right, California Chrome deserved top honors. I know some folks thought it may be close but Bayern most likely would not have won the Classic if he did not impede two of his main rivals at the start of the race, and he should have been disqualified but the judges choked under pressure. Chrome was a deserving winner.Watch the overhead of the break that has been posted twice on here somewhere and you might begin to think differently...

[PaceAdvantage]

I actually thought Bayern was going to get it, but I suspect there were a lot of voters that believed he benefited from easy leads on biased tracks in the Haskell and at PARX and then the controversial start in the Classic. The bigger debate is whether trip handicapping should be part of the process.

However, IMO, this is far from a bad decision. CC won some of the most important races of the year and was possibly thwarted in the Belmont when he got stepped on and returned with an injury that required time off. He had a very very good early part of the year and finished well enough.This is a terrible decision.

None of these "what if" scenarios should be coming into play as far as voters are concerned.

Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. That's all that should matter. What did they win and who did they beat.

Bayern won the biggest 3yo race of the year (since the 2014 BCC was all about the 3yos, how does it carry less weight than the Derby?), AND he beat CC two of three times.

And yet, CC gets all the year-end awards...makes total sense... :lol: :lol: :rolleyes:

It's all becoming so meaningless these days, isn't it?

[horses4courses]

Maybe it's horses with names beginning in "B"?
Bayern....Blame.....

Let's face it.....Black Tie Affair won by default :lol:

[Cratos]

This is a terrible decision.

None of these "what if" scenarios should be coming into play as far as voters are concerned.

Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. That's all that should matter. What did they win and who did they beat.

Bayern won the biggest 3yo race of the year (since the 2014 BCC was all about the 3yos, how does it carry less weight than the Derby?), AND he beat CC two of three times.

And yet, CC gets all the year-end awards...makes total sense... :lol: :lol: :rolleyes:

It's all becoming so meaningless these days, isn't it?
I agree with you and now we should rethink about calling the "BC Classic" the championship race until we define "championship."

[Stillriledup]

This is a terrible decision.

None of these "what if" scenarios should be coming into play as far as voters are concerned.

Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. That's all that should matter. What did they win and who did they beat.

Bayern won the biggest 3yo race of the year (since the 2014 BCC was all about the 3yos, how does it carry less weight than the Derby?), AND he beat CC two of three times.

And yet, CC gets all the year-end awards...makes total sense... :lol: :lol: :rolleyes:

It's all becoming so meaningless these days, isn't it?

We can have a special award the "horse who wins the BCC award".

Why just automatically award a horse who gets to the finish wire first in one race when we know that 1) post positions are randomly drawn and since post postitions can affect who gets to the line first, why let an award be determined by a random pill draw and 2) since when did we become so simple that we can't watch a race with our eyes and make a call on who is the best horse? The finish line is only there so they know who to pay off parimutually....its got no other real purpose. We can watch with our eyes, we know the best horse doesn't always win also.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why just automatically award a horse who gets to the finish wire first in one race I'm not. But you like to argue, so you make shit up.

[Stillriledup]

I'm not. But you like to argue, so you make shit up.

:D

Yes, i often make things up. Just like 99% of the time a certain poster is the recipient of abuse and 1% of the time he starts it...i guess those weren't "made up" numbers.

And yea, i LOVE to argue...what else ya got! :D

[The WindfallAngler]

You don't mean "actual performance" you mean who hits the line first. Two different things. Some methodologies give higher performance figures to horses who don't actually hit the line first. These teeming hordes who're spouting declarations like "actual performance" are what I refer to as Bottom Liners. They are brisk. Give 'em a one win edge, going heads up, and they are down like a shot. Results oriented--to a fault.

But simplistic! Book their bets. Re-raise the raiser.

[Stillriledup]

These teeming hordes who're spouting declarations like "actual performance" are what I refer to as Bottom Liners. They are brisk. Give 'em a one win edge, going heads up, and they are down like a shot. Results oriented--to a fault.

But simplistic! Book their bets. Re-raise the raiser.

WA i miss you man, everything been ok with you? Good to see you again.

I know what you're saying, and take a look at baseball's cy young award....the 'best pitcher" in 2010 was King Felix, but he had a mediocre "win" record. He only crossed the line 13 times successfully, but baseball voters didn't need to see how many times his nose hit the line because they did something far more sophisticated.....you ready? Drum roll please....they watched the games!

Yes, they watched the games, and with their own eyes, determined King Felix was the best....they didnt just automatically award the pitcher who "crossed the line first" most times the award.

[The WindfallAngler]

This is a terrible decision.

None of these "what if" scenarios should be coming into play as far as voters are concerned.

Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. That's all that should matter. What did they win and who did they beat.

Bayern won the biggest 3yo race of the year (since the 2014 BCC was all about the 3yos, how does it carry less weight than the Derby?), AND he beat CC two of three times.

And yet, CC gets all the year-end awards...makes total sense... :lol: :lol: :rolleyes:

It's all becoming so meaningless these days, isn't it?Ah yes, The Bottom Line. All inclusive number. Shrug off the intangibles.

Screw the inscrutable! Shortcut the situational! Well, but one cannot "beat" what he cheats, can he? (With sympathies for Shared Belief and his backers, yaaaay CHROME.) Cheers!

[PaceAdvantage]

These teeming hordes who're spouting declarations like "actual performance" are what I refer to as Bottom Liners. They are brisk. Give 'em a one win edge, going heads up, and they are down like a shot. Results oriented--to a fault.

But simplistic! Book their bets. Re-raise the raiser.Yeah, you're the awesome "see the forest, ignore the trees" kind of guy...you rock dude...

Tell me again how CC deserved it over Bayern...you can slice it any which way you want...objective...subjective...doesn't matter...

Popularity and name recognition seems to be dominating this vote in recent years...not actual achievement.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ah yes, The Bottom Line. All inclusive number. Shrug off the intangibles.

Screw the inscrutable! Shortcut the situational! Well, but one cannot "beat" what he cheats, can he? (With sympathies for Shared Belief and his backers, yaaaay CHROME.) Cheers!Bayern didn't even really interfere with anyone beyond what you would see in any other race on any other day, which would also result in no takedown....

Watch the overhead...it's posted on this site in more than one place...it shows how laughingly and SHOCKINGLY benign the whole incident really was...but keep clinging to the whole "grand mugging" theme...it suits you and your ilk.

[mostpost]

This is a terrible decision.

None of these "what if" scenarios should be coming into play as far as voters are concerned.

Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. That's all that should matter. What did they win and who did they beat.

Bayern won the biggest 3yo race of the year (since the 2014 BCC was all about the 3yos, how does it carry less weight than the Derby?), AND he beat CC two of three times.

And yet, CC gets all the year-end awards...makes total sense... :lol: :lol: :rolleyes:

It's all becoming so meaningless these days, isn't it?
Right. Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. All the results.
California Chrome won six of nine races and all six of those wins were stakes races. Four of them were Grade one stakes.
Bayern won six of ten races, but only four were stakes races. He also won an allowance race and a maiden race. How much credit should we give Bayern for winning a maiden race.

Looking exclusively at Grade 1 stakes California Chrome won four out of six races and finished third in the BCC and fourth in the Belmont. Bayern won two out of five grade 1 starts while finishing third in the Arkansas Derby, ninth in the Preakness and tenth in the Travers.

You think that the Breeders Cup Classic should be the primary race in determining Horse Of The Year and in this case three year old of the year. In some cases that is true, but tell me just what it was that Bayern did prior to the BCC to be considered a rival to California Chrome?

He finished third in the Arkansas Derby, did not run in the Kentucky Derby; finished ninth in the Preakness and did not run in the Belmont. Then he won a sprint race. After that, Bayern won the Haskell Stakes, but the Haskell field was notably weak. None of the first two finishers in the Derby, Preakness or Belmont were in the Haskell field. Then he finished tenth in the Travers. So after winning a maiden special weight and an allowance race, Bayern was two for his next six going into the Pennsylvania Derby.

In the Pennsylvania Derby, Bayern beat a California Chrome who was not yet in peak form. Then Bayern, having lost four of his previous seven starts beat California Chrome who had won five of his previous seven starts by a neck.
And you think Bayern should have won the Eclipse for three year old male or Horse of the Year or whatever

[mostpost]

Bayern didn't even really interfere with anyone beyond what you would see in any other race on any other day, which would also result in no takedown....

Watch the overhead...it's posted on this site in more than one place...it shows how laughingly and SHOCKINGLY benign the whole incident really was...but keep clinging to the whole "grand mugging" theme...it suits you and your ilk.
I agree with you that Bayern should not have been disqualified. And he wasn't. I disagree that beating California Chrome by a neck and a nose was sufficient to overcome the superiority that CC had established over the rest of the year. The voters agree with me. Bayern did not even finish second in the voting.

[mostpost]

Yeah, you're the awesome "see the forest, ignore the trees" kind of guy...you rock dude...

Tell me again how CC deserved it over Bayern...you can slice it any which way you want...objective...subjective...doesn't matter...

Popularity and name recognition seems to be dominating this vote in recent years...not actual achievement.
See Post # 122 this thread. Of course the challenge is to get you to admit you are wrong.

[Stillriledup]

Right. Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. All the results.
California Chrome won six of nine races and all six of those wins were stakes races. Four of them were Grade one stakes.
Bayern won six of ten races, but only four were stakes races. He also won an allowance race and a maiden race. How much credit should we give Bayern for winning a maiden race.

Looking exclusively at Grade 1 stakes California Chrome won four out of six races and finished third in the BCC and fourth in the Belmont. Bayern won two out of five grade 1 starts while finishing third in the Arkansas Derby, ninth in the Preakness and tenth in the Travers.

You think that the Breeders Cup Classic should be the primary race in determining Horse Of The Year and in this case three year old of the year. In some cases that is true, but tell me just what it was that Bayern did prior to the BCC to be considered a rival to California Chrome?

He finished third in the Arkansas Derby, did not run in the Kentucky Derby; finished ninth in the Preakness and did not run in the Belmont. Then he won a sprint race. After that, Bayern won the Haskell Stakes, but the Haskell field was notably weak. None of the first two finishers in the Derby, Preakness or Belmont were in the Haskell field. Then he finished tenth in the Travers. So after winning a maiden special weight and an allowance race, Bayern was two for his next six going into the Pennsylvania Derby.

In the Pennsylvania Derby, Bayern beat a California Chrome who was not yet in peak form. Then Bayern, having lost four of his previous seven starts beat California Chrome who had won five of his previous seven starts by a neck.
And you think Bayern should have won the Eclipse for three year old male or Horse of the Year or whatever

I was just going to say the SAME THING but you said it better.

PA is arguing that because Bayern crossed the line first vs CC that that should hold a lot of weight, but there are so many factors that would permit Bayern to cross the line ahead of CC in the Classic including a random post draw, ground loss and the fact that CC battled in a very tiring triple crown chase that bayern didnt have to participate in, lots of factors as to why CC might have been tired later in the year.

Of course, CC ran a better "Figure" than Bayern in the Classic.....and that's Bayerns claim to fame that he drew a better post and saved ground on all the turns and beat CC (wide on turns) by a snot while traveling a shorter distance. That's what he's hanging his hat on.

[camourous]

I would have put California Chrome 3rd behind Main Sequence and Bayern and he would have been a distant 3rd. Main Sequence had a better resume than Wise Dan when he won his HOY as he beat better horses, but the voters obviously don't vote based on what happens on the track, it has become a popularity contest

[Stillriledup]

I would have put California Chrome 3rd behind Main Sequence and Bayern and he would have been a distant 3rd. Main Sequence had a better resume than Wise Dan when he won his HOY as he beat better horses, but the voters obviously don't vote based on what happens on the track, it has become a popularity contest

yes, and the greatest horses tend to be the most popular...so, it kinda works out that the best horses win the awards anyway.

[MargieRose]

yes, and the greatest horses tend to be the most popular...so, it kinda works out that the best horses win the awards anyway.

Stillriledup and Mostpost...Just have to say that you impress again with your reasoning/logic and knowledge of this sport. Your response, Stillriledup, to this poster in particular was simply brilliant!

No offense intended to Camourous or to anyone else...Simply, just my opinion after having been reading through this site for quite a while.

[Stillriledup]

Stillriledup and Mostpost...Just have to say that you impress again with your reasoning/logic and knowledge of this sport. Your response, Stillriledup, to this poster in particular was simply brilliant!

No offense intended to Camourous or to anyone else...Simply, just my opinion after having been reading through this site for quite a while.

Wow, thanks for the compliment, i had a guy in another thread call me a moron and a troll....this is better. :D

[Grits]

Wow, thanks for the compliment, i had a guy in another thread call me a moron and a troll....this is better. :D

Pretty cool, huh, when one can go from sh** to shineola all in the same evening? Same hour?

Or was it a matter of minutes? :lol:

[Stillriledup]

Pretty cool, huh, when one can go from sh** to shineola all in the same evening? Same hour?

Or was it a matter of minutes? :lol:

Right? :D

I just checked, it was exactly 20 minutes. I'm still in shock, i may frame Margie Rose's post...who knows when i'll stumble into my next good point~!

[Cratos]

yes, and the greatest horses tend to be the most popular...so, it kinda works out that the best horses win the awards anyway.
Admittedly I would have voted for Bayern over CC, but my question to you: "Why do you think that Bayern is ranked ahead of CC in the Best Racehorse in the World for 2014 poll?"

[Stillriledup]

Admittedly I would have voted for Bayern over CC, but my question to you: "Why do you think that Bayern is ranked ahead of CC in the Best Racehorse in the World for 2014 poll?"

Because the rankings were done by people who don't make speed figures that incorporate ground loss?

Dunno. Why do YOU think?

[letswastemoney]

I'd argue California Chrome, Bayern and Shared Belief are about the same right now. They each have their own little flaws.

Chrome has never won while boxed in racing on dirt, but when he races on the outside of horses his kick is powerful.

The Breeders' Cup Classic was a strange merry go round race where the speed horses stayed in their positions and the closers never threatened. Chrome ran well, even though he didn't get the job done.

[Stillriledup]

I'd argue California Chrome, Bayern and Shared Belief are about the same right now. They each have their own little flaws.

Chrome has never won while boxed in racing on dirt, but when he races on the outside of horses his kick is powerful.

The Breeders' Cup Classic was a strange merry go round race where the speed horses stayed in their positions and the closers never threatened. Chrome ran well, even though he didn't get the job done.

I have to question if you switch trips in the classic with CC and Bayern, if Bayern is still in the win photo.

[Cratos]

Because the rankings were done by people who don't make speed figures that incorporate ground loss?

Dunno. Why do YOU think?
I believe if you objectively look at both CC and Bayern's 2014 race performances, Bayern gave the better race performance when the two are compared on a race by race basis.

I fully realize that the Kentucky Derby is America's most popular race, but it is not always the best race in terms of performance and quality of entrants.

Therefore which horses who ran in the 2014 Derby have moved on to be successful in other major stakes?

If speed figures and ground loss are your measurables for quality, then I somewhat understand your argument.

[Stillriledup]

I believe if you objectively look at both CC and Bayern's 2014 race performances, Bayern gave the better race performance when the two are compared on a race by race basis.

I fully realize that the Kentucky Derby is America's most popular race, but it is not always the best race in terms of performance and quality of entrants.

Therefore which horses who ran in the 2014 Derby have moved on to be successful in other major stakes?

If speed figures and ground loss are your measurables for quality, then I somewhat understand your argument.

To add to the last sentence, i also thought he was visually better, i dont know the figures because i don't make my own and i don't buy anyone elses, i'm just assuming that CC had the better figure b/c ground loss.

You're right, the Derby isn't necessarily a strong group, but i think is that at the TIME the Derby is run, its the strongest 3yo group we have...but what ends up happening is that many of those derby runners fizzle out due to being over raced chasing the TC and some of them just never were good anyway....and when new 3yo class shooters come along in Oct and Nov, they're late 3year olds and they're better and much more developed than what we saw in may and their performances make the Derby look like a "Weak" race comparatively, but at the time, it was the "best" 20 horses from that class.

Bayern fans best argument is the head to head matchups.....and i would say that the head to head matchups really only matter if one horse proved he was better.....one time CC beat bayern, B had a very rough trip and the one time B beat CC (before the Classic) CC had the "pinned in" trip...and the "rubber match" if you will was the classic......where Bayern drew a better post, saved more ground and was essentially "Equal" to CC on the wire.....in other words if you forget about ground loss and you forget about posts, the result was that they were fractions of a second apart at the wire....who hit the wire first was just a technicality and the wire is just for parimutuel purposes so they can pay off winners, its not something that we need to ever use in award distribution because we are allowed to watch the race and form an opinion off visuals.

If they ran the race in the cloak of darnkness and just published the results and we weren't allowed to see what really happened, we would probably just have to go on what the results said and who crossed the line ahead of who. But since we're allowed to actually view the race, why not make a determination based on what we saw with our own eyes?

If you make the case CC was just as good as Bayern in the Classic and you say the other 2 times they raced cancel each other out because the loser had a hard trip, than you have to look at the other stuff....and the other stuff for CC includes a turf win, a Derby win, a Preakness win and a great performance loss in the Belmont and a smashing win in the SA Derby.

Bayern's non BCC resume is not as good as CCs, so to me, Bayern needed to "stomp him out" to win the title.

This was a bit similar to the year Z beat Blame......if Blame had won the Classic by a larger margin and Z was nowhere, Blame might have been HOY, but you can't have a horse with a much better resume charging at you and holding that horse off a by a small margin and figure 6 inches is going to cancel out all the other stuff.

[MargieRose]

Because the rankings were done by people who don't make speed figures that incorporate ground loss?

Dunno. Why do YOU think?

Apparently, not that nor any other incidences that can affect the outcome of a race...There seems to be a quite superficial basis for rankings:

BAYERN (USA) is now [125] on the strength of his thrilling all the way victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). From the same race, TOAST OF NEW YORK (USA) [124], who was beaten only a short head entered the Rankings for the first time. The third placed finisher CALIFORNIA CHROME (USA) [124], only a neck further behind, replicated his performances in both the Kentucky Derby (presented by YUM! Brands) and in the Preakness Stakes.

http://www.ifhaonline.org/resources/WTRRankings/LWBRR_PressRelease.asp?pid=50

[classhandicapper]

This is a terrible decision.



If I had a vote, I would have voted for Bayern for HOTY and at least considered splitting it by giving CC 3yo of the year. I don't think this was a terrible decision though. It was an outstanding season for 3yos.

I'd also say I think the probability that Bayern develops further this year than CC is higher. I guess by that I mean to say I don't think 2015 is going to tell us much about who was better in 2014 in neutral circumstances.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would have put California Chrome 3rd behind Main Sequence and Bayern and he would have been a distant 3rd. Main Sequence had a better resume than Wise Dan when he won his HOY as he beat better horses, but the voters obviously don't vote based on what happens on the track, it has become a popularity contestI agree.

The fact that a decent argument can be made for Bayern, while never even bringing up the fact that Main Sequence deserved it more than both CC and Bayern, demonstrates how terrible a decision this was in my opinion.

[classhandicapper]

I agree.

The fact that a decent argument can be made for Bayern, while never even bringing up the fact that Main Sequence deserved it more than both CC and Bayern, demonstrates how terrible a decision this was in my opinion.

I don't know if I can agree on Main Sequence.

The "tradition" in the US has been to give the title to a deserving dirt horse over a deserving turf horse because the US is more into dirt racing, we breed for speed and dirt, and our turf racing is considered weaker. Giving it to the turf horse has generally be reserved for years where there's been a truly outstanding turf horse and no deserving dirt horse.

Main Sequence probably wasn't even regarded as the best US turf horse until he won the BC. That sealed it for him as a much improved turfer because he beat a solid international field. But with only a limited resume, I don't think he trumped deserving horses like CC and Bayern given the tradition. He was terrific though!

[Cratos]

I don't know if I can agree on Main Sequence.

The "tradition" in the US has been to give the title to a deserving dirt horse over a deserving turf horse because the US is more into dirt racing, we breed for speed and dirt, and our turf racing is considered weaker. Giving it to the turf horse has generally be reserved for years where there's been a truly outstanding turf horse and no deserving dirt horse.

Main Sequence probably wasn't even regarded as the best US turf horse until he won the BC. That sealed it for him as a much improved turfer because he beat a solid international field. But with only a limited resume, I don't think he trumped deserving horses like CC and Bayern given the tradition. He was terrific though!
If the BC sealed it for Main Sequence, why didn't it seal for Bayern who won the most prestigious BC race in winning the BC Classic; that is the contradiction in your argument.

[The WindfallAngler]

If the BC sealed it for Main Sequence, why didn't it seal for Bayern who won the most prestigious BC race in winning the BC Classic; that is the contradiction in your argument. Nahh, the BC Turf aside, those voices we hear attempting to diminish the importance of triple crown races, and of runners who race well in them, cannot succeed. In these events we see young horses absorbing a succession of shocks, followed by a calendar of only limited rest: a temporal compression which makes progressive demands, not just on physical preparedness but on recuperative reserves, we just don't see anywhere else.

Outside all of this, MAIN SEQUENCE earned four Grade One stakes wins in convincing fashion over a span of 88 days.

But, to be the equal of CALIFORNIA CHROME, Main Sequence's connections would need to have mapped out for him some other mix of four Grade Ones, with race dates more sudden and demanding than we see, among his rest intervals spaced 5 to 5-&-1/2 weeks apart.

Four other Grade Ones, yes--he would need to have won--always FEWER than 30 days apart. Including at east one break of only 14 days.

This is because California Chrome was busy recording, over an 86 day span, a streak containing one Grade Two win + three Grade One wins (among them, Dual Cla$$ics) + another Grade One race, in which CC finished a close (and arguably excusable) 4th--namely, his Belmont Stakes, wherein CC bled from the gate.

It just meant more. Elcipse voters could see it. And it is this 5-race nucleus, at the core of CC's unsuccessful bid to be 2014 triple crown champion, that puts Chrome over the top. Bayern's eye catching late season, notwithstanding.

[classhandicapper]

If the BC sealed it for Main Sequence, why didn't it seal for Bayern who won the most prestigious BC race in winning the BC Classic; that is the contradiction in your argument.

What argument?

I said I would have voted for Bayern.

I laid out my reasons for why I think CC actually won the award earlier. To that list I would add that CC also had a bigger impact on the sport because he came darn close to winning a Triple Crown. "Impact on sport" seems to carry some weight in the voting for better or worse.

[Cratos]

What argument?

I said I would have voted for Bayern.

I laid out my reasons for why I think CC actually won the award earlier. To that list I would add that CC also had a bigger impact on the sport because he came darn close to winning a Triple Crown. "Impact on sport" seems to carry some weight in the voting for better or worse.
I understand that you stated that you would have voted for Bayern , but your statement that the BC was a plus for Main Sequence and you didn't say that the BC was plus for Bayern becomes argumentative in the sense that both horses did essentially the same thing and according to you one got more credit than the other.

If it is the "impact" of the TC that apparently swayed the voters toward CC the BC races are further behind in gaining acceptance as "championship" races than I thought.

[Stillriledup]

Nahh, the BC Turf aside, those voices we hear attempting to diminish the importance of triple crown races, and of runners who race well in them, cannot succeed. In these events we see young horses absorbing a succession of shocks, followed by a calendar of only limited rest: a temporal compression which makes progressive demands, not just on physical preparedness but on recuperative reserves, we just don't see anywhere else.

Outside all of this, MAIN SEQUENCE earned four Grade One stakes wins in convincing fashion over a span of 88 days.

But, to be the equal of CALIFORNIA CHROME, Main Sequence's connections would need to have mapped out for him some other mix of four Grade Ones, with race dates more sudden and demanding than we see, among his rest intervals spaced 5 to 5-&-1/2 weeks apart.

Four other Grade Ones, yes--he would need to have won--always FEWER than 30 days apart. Including at east one break of only 14 days.

This is because California Chrome was busy recording, over an 86 day span, a streak containing one Grade Two win + three Grade One wins (among them, Dual Cla$$ics) + another Grade One race, in which CC finished a close (and arguably excusable) 4th--namely, his Belmont Stakes, wherein CC bled from the gate.

It just meant more. Elcipse voters could see it. And it is this 5-race nucleus, at the core of CC's unsuccessful bid to be 2014 triple crown champion, that puts Chrome over the top. Bayern's eye catching late season, notwithstanding.

Very few people, if any, have given CC "credit" for a demanding Triple Crown chase and used his "tiredness" as a factor when trying to prop up Bayern beating him by a small margin in a race that took place in November. Somehow the Bayern supporters forgot about that and i'll bet that even some of them are the ones who are calling for the Triple Crown to be altered so horses don't have 3 grueling races in 5 weeks.

[classhandicapper]

I understand that you stated that you would have voted for Bayern , but your statement that the BC was a plus for Main Sequence and you didn't say that the BC was plus for Bayern becomes argumentative in the sense that both horses did essentially the same thing and according to you one got more credit than the other.

If it is the "impact" of the TC that apparently swayed the voters toward CC the BC races are further behind in gaining acceptance as "championship" races than I thought.


I think they both got credit for their wins in Breeder's Cup races, but Main Sequence's was more probably perceived as more definitive for him because of the controversial start in the Classic that allowed Bayern to get loose on the lead. Some people apparently held that against him.

[Stillriledup]

I think they both got credit for their wins in Breeder's Cup races, but Main Sequence's was more probably perceived as more definitive for him because of the controversial start in the Classic that allowed Bayern to get loose on the lead. Some people apparently held that against him.

Or, maybe they determined that his 6 inches ahead of CC in the Classic wasnt enough to cancel out the large edge in accomplishments that CC had going into the race.

[pandy]

Let's face it, if Bayern didn't cause that interference at the start, and still won the classic, which would have meant that he shook off both Moreno and Shared Belief, the voters would have made him Horse of the Year. The fact that he impeded those two rivals made a big difference in the voting, and in the race.

[Stillriledup]

Let's face it, if Bayern didn't cause that interference at the start, and still won the classic, which would have meant that he shook off both Moreno and Shared Belief, the voters would have made him Horse of the Year. The fact that he impeded those two rivals made a big difference in the voting, and in the race.

I dont think it factored in the voting only because CC ran just as well as Bayern in the Classic (or better depending how important you think ground loss is) so if you say the Classic was a wash (equal horses) and the other two races they ran against each other cancel each other out, what do you have left? You have CC winning 2./3 of the TC and racing great in leg 3 and you have Bayern losing the Travers by 20 lengths. Not much debate who was mythically "ahead" in the voters minds before the Classic.

[Rex Phinney]

Or, maybe they determined that his 6 inches ahead of CC in the Classic wasnt enough to cancel out the large edge in accomplishments that CC had going into the race.

Maybe it is easy for the voters to forgive the 6 inches in the Classic (even if CC had every chance to go by and never did).

Problem I have is, Pennsylvania didn't come down to 6 inches?

Bayern ran a gutsy race in the Classic, so the start wasn't the greatest, big deal, it didn't affect CC and Bayern still beat him.

THREE of the 2014 3YO beat older horses (4 if you want to count Untapable). Chrome wasn't one of them, and he won HOTY by that wide a margin??? My brain has problems processing that.

[pandy]

I dont think it factored in the voting only because CC ran just as well as Bayern in the Classic (or better depending how important you think ground loss is) so if you say the Classic was a wash (equal horses) and the other two races they ran against each other cancel each other out, what do you have left? You have CC winning 2./3 of the TC and racing great in leg 3 and you have Bayern losing the Travers by 20 lengths. Not much debate who was mythically "ahead" in the voters minds before the Classic.

Chrome may have still won, but it would have been a close vote. As it was, Bayern was third in the voting despite winning the Classic. The interference made a big difference in the actual voting.

[pandy]

That's because you think that Bayern ran a gutsy race. Many voters didn't feel that way. I wasn't impressed at all by Bayern's win in the Classic, especially since he wiped out his main pace rival, and an unbeaten horse, Shared Belief. Both of those horses would have challenged him and Bayern would not have won the classic.

[Rex Phinney]

That's because you think that Bayern ran a gutsy race. Many voters didn't feel that way. I wasn't impressed at all by Bayern's win in the Classic, especially since he wiped out his main pace rival, and an unbeaten horse, Shared Belief. Both of those horses would have challenged him and Bayern would not have won the classic.

Could of
Should of
Would of

I had big money on Shared Belief and still think he is the best of the group. But I'm being honest here. Bayern took all that bouncing around in he beginning (even if it was self inflicted) and beat CC who pretty much had a perfect trip.

Anytime you win a $5,000,000 race at 10 furlongs gate to wire, it's a gutsy race. I don't care how brainwashed the rest of you might be into thinking that this is somehow an easy task. You can talk about an easy lead and wiping out the competitioin and blah blah blah. But in the end the horse has to dig in when the field comes for him, and on that day Bayern did. Chrome had him dead to rights at the top of the stretch and he never got by. You can be unimpressed if you want, it doesn't change the name on the trophy nor the amount on the check.

[Cratos]

Could of
Should of
Would of

I had big money on Shared Belief and still think he is the best of the group. But I'm being honest here. Bayern took all that bouncing around in he beginning (even if it was self inflicted) and beat CC who pretty much had a perfect trip.

Anytime you win a $5,000,000 race at 10 furlongs gate to wire, it's a gutsy race. I don't care how brainwashed the rest of you might be into thinking that this is somehow an easy task. You can talk about an easy lead and wiping out the competitioin and blah blah blah. But in the end the horse has to dig in when the field comes for him, and on that day Bayern did. Chrome had him dead to rights at the top of the stretch and he never got by. You can be unimpressed if you want, it doesn't change the name on the trophy nor the amount on the check.
IMHO the best post in this thread by far.

[pandy]

Could of
Should of
Would of

I had big money on Shared Belief and still think he is the best of the group. But I'm being honest here. Bayern took all that bouncing around in he beginning (even if it was self inflicted) and beat CC who pretty much had a perfect trip.

Anytime you win a $5,000,000 race at 10 furlongs gate to wire, it's a gutsy race. I don't care how brainwashed the rest of you might be into thinking that this is somehow an easy task. You can talk about an easy lead and wiping out the competitioin and blah blah blah. But in the end the horse has to dig in when the field comes for him, and on that day Bayern did. Chrome had him dead to rights at the top of the stretch and he never got by. You can be unimpressed if you want, it doesn't change the name on the trophy nor the amount on the check.

You're kind of missing the point that if Bayern didn't wipe out Moreno and hurt Shared Belief's chances, he would have been pressed by them, and Chrome would have went right by him in the stretch, or, Shared Belief may have won. Bayern got lucky and created his own luck by interfering with two of his main rivals and the voters knew it. It is not that tough to win when you impede your main rivals.

[Cratos]

You're kind of missing the point that if Bayern didn't wipe out Moreno and hurt Shared Belief's chances, he would have been pressed by them, and Chrome would have went right by him in the stretch, or, Shared Belief may have won. Bayern got lucky and created his own luck by interfering with two of his main rivals and the voters knew it. It is not that tough to win when you impede your main rivals.
In all due respect, you missed the point, which was CC had a clear shot at Bayern at the top of the stretch and could not pass him.

Furthermore if CC needed Moreno to "soften" up Bayern, CC might be even worse when compared to Bayern.

[Stillriledup]

In all due respect, you missed the point, which was CC had a clear shot at Bayern at the top of the stretch and could not pass him.

Furthermore if CC needed Moreno to "soften" up Bayern, CC might be even worse when compared to Bayern.

I think Pandy means that everything went Bayern's way and he still only won by a very small margin. If anything goes against him, which often happens in horse races, he loses and if it REALLY goes against him, he's up the track because he's a one dimensional horse who can't adjust to adversity.

[The WindfallAngler]

Could of
Should of
Would of

I had big money on Shared Belief and still think he is the best of the group. But I'm being honest here. Bayern took all that bouncing around in he beginning (even if it was self inflicted) and beat CC who pretty much had a perfect trip.

Anytime you win a $5,000,000 race at 10 furlongs gate to wire, it's a gutsy race. I don't care how brainwashed the rest of you might be into thinking that this is somehow an easy task. You can talk about an easy lead and wiping out the competitioin and blah blah blah. But in the end the horse has to dig in when the field comes for him, and on that day Bayern did. Chrome had him dead to rights at the top of the stretch and he never got by. You can be unimpressed if you want, it doesn't change the name on the trophy nor the amount on the check.Bayern keeps the check; Chrome enjoys the trophy.

[The WindfallAngler]

You're kind of missing the point that if Bayern didn't wipe out Moreno and hurt Shared Belief's chances, he would have been pressed by them, and Chrome would have went right by him in the stretch, or, Shared Belief may have won. Bayern got lucky and created his own luck by interfering with two of his main rivals and the voters knew it. It is not that tough to win when you impede your main rivals.Let it go. Some just will not see it. They're dazzled by Bayern's world beating brilliance rot rot rot ad nauseum

[horses4courses]

The most ridiculous comparison that I've heard is that Bayern
won 2 out of 3 encounters over CC, therefore he's better.
Way too simplistic.

CC had little, or no, chance of being near his best at Parx.
Bayern had been drilled by CC in the Preakness.
Some argue those two races should cancel each other out.
Again - way too simplistic.

So then, does it all ride on the BC Classic?
Is that what it comes down to,
regardless of trips and distance beaten?

Seems that a little race called the KY Derby
has been (conveniently) forgotten. :ThmbDown:

[Cratos]

I think Pandy means that everything went Bayern's way and he still only won by a very small margin. If anything goes against him, which often happens in horse races, he loses and if it REALLY goes against him, he's up the track because he's a one dimensional horse who can't adjust to adversity.
I didn't come to this party late and I said long before the HOTY vote was announced that I would vote for Bayern as HOTY and CC as 3yo of the year.

Having said that and not saying that Bayern is anywhere the equal of the incomparable Dr. Fager (my all time favorite racehorse) I will say that Bayern gives today's racing a glimpse of what it was to be a racing fan in the late sixties.

What I now hope is that CC and Bayern stay healthy and race against each other as Dr. Fager and Damascus did.

[mostpost]

Could of
Should of
Would of

I had big money on Shared Belief and still think he is the best of the group. But I'm being honest here. Bayern took all that bouncing around in he beginning (even if it was self inflicted) and beat CC who pretty much had a perfect trip.

Anytime you win a $5,000,000 race at 10 furlongs gate to wire, it's a gutsy race. I don't care how brainwashed the rest of you might be into thinking that this is somehow an easy task. You can talk about an easy lead and wiping out the competitioin and blah blah blah. But in the end the horse has to dig in when the field comes for him, and on that day Bayern did. Chrome had him dead to rights at the top of the stretch and he never got by. You can be unimpressed if you want, it doesn't change the name on the trophy nor the amount on the check.
http://www.hrtv.com/videos//2014-breeders-cup-classic-bump/
The above is a link to the overhead view of the start of the Breeders Cup Classic. If you have not looked at it before, do so now. It shows that there was no-or very little-contact between Shared Belief and Bayern. Shared Belief may have had to take back some as Bayern crossed right in front of him, but I do not think that cost Shared Belief the race. I certainly do not think the incident affected Bayern in any way.

It is just silly to say California Chrome had a perfect trip. He did not have a terrible trip and he was never boxed in, but he was three wide around both turns. Bayern did have a perfect trip. He was on the lead all the way, where he loves to be and he was never challenged until the home stretch.

You said, "Chrome had him dead to rights at the top of the stretch and he never got by." That is phraseology one would use if the two horses were head and head at the top of the stretch and Bayern held on to the wire. In fact California Chrome was two and a half lengths back at the quarter pole and two lengths back at the stretch call. At the finish he was a neck plus a few inches behind. He gained two and a quarter lengths down the stretch.
Looking at the replay, I can see that Chrome was still more than a length back inside the sixteenth poll. Sometimes you can say that the leader would still be in front if they went around again. That was not the case in the BCC,

Don't get me wrong. Bayern won the Breeders Cup Classic. California Chrome did not. But the manner of his victory was not sufficient to overcome what Chrome did the rest of the year.

[horses4courses]

Don't get me wrong. Bayern won the Breeders Cup Classic. California Chrome did not. But the manner of his victory was not sufficient to overcome what Chrome did the rest of the year.

Correct.

The year of racing's accomplishments is measured by just that.
A year.

Way too many Eclipse awards have come down to BC performances.

[thaskalos]

I would have hated to see Bayern win it.

[Fager Fan]

This is a terrible decision.

None of these "what if" scenarios should be coming into play as far as voters are concerned.

Deal with the results on the track as they stand official. That's all that should matter. What did they win and who did they beat.

Bayern won the biggest 3yo race of the year (since the 2014 BCC was all about the 3yos, how does it carry less weight than the Derby?), AND he beat CC two of three times.

And yet, CC gets all the year-end awards...makes total sense... :lol: :lol: :rolleyes:

It's all becoming so meaningless these days, isn't it?

As a handicapper, you should know that horses can run the best race and not win, and that the winners don't always run the best race.

Bayern took out his competition in the race. There's no getting around that. People may've looked at it less sternly had Baffert and his jock not deliberately tried to take out Hollendorfer's colt in the race prior. Then there were all the horses who dropped dead in his barn. Maybe folks didn't want to reward what may be dirty racing coming from one trainer's barn when another colt ran just as good of a campaign if not better.

[Frost king]

Considering, that we are now awarding HOY based on trips and speed figures, and not on the track, could we place award two more Triple Crowns, one to Alydar, and one to Real Quiet. Actually victories don't mean much anymore, it is the trips that count. The last time I brought my mutuel ticket to the window, and tried to cash a trip/speed figure winner, they refused to pay me out! Why is that? He was the best horse, even though he didn't win the race? How does that work? So for 55 minutes, the Packers were the best team, are they going to the Super Bowl? No, because they lost to Seattle, only in horse racing, when you lose you win! A horse wins one of its last four races, and it is declared a Champion? Oh by the way, the Champion that California Chrome beat on the grass, Lexie Lou, couldn't even run a 90 Beyer on dirt this past weekend at Santa Anita. Another paper tiger champion!

[mostpost]

Considering, that we are now awarding HOY based on trips and speed figures, and not on the track, could we place award two more Triple Crowns, one to Alydar, and one to Real Quiet. Actually victories don't mean much anymore, it is the trips that count. The last time I brought my mutuel ticket to the window, and tried to cash a trip/speed figure winner, they refused to pay me out! Why is that? He was the best horse, even though he didn't win the race? How does that work? So for 55 minutes, the Packers were the best team, are they going to the Super Bowl? No, because they lost to Seattle, only in horse racing, when you lose you win! A horse wins one of its last four races, and it is declared a Champion? Oh by the way, the Champion that California Chrome beat on the grass, Lexie Lou, couldn't even run a 90 Beyer on dirt this past weekend at Santa Anita. Another paper tiger champion!
You are cherry picking. Why are the last four races more important than the first five? In the first five races of his year, Bayern won two times-a maiden and a allowance. He finished second in a a grade 2; third in a grade one and ninth in a grade one. In the mean time California Chrome was winning five times while not losing. Those five wins included three grade one victories, one grade 2 victories and one win in a non graded, restricted stakes. Even a win in a non graded, restricted stakes is better than a win in a maiden or allowance race. A win in a non graded, restricted stakes in better than ninth in the Preakness.

Look at the last seven races by the two horses. Both won four of those seven. California Chrome's four wins were all in Grade one stakes; the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Hollywood Derby.
Only two of Bayern's four wins were in grade one stakes; The Haskell and the Breeders Cup Classic. Two were grade two; the Pennsylvania Derby and the Woody Stephens, which was a seven furlong sprint.

California Chrome won on the grass. Bayern did not.

In his five grade one races Bayern finished behind Tonalist, VE Day, Wicked Strong, California Chrome, Ride on Curlin, Social Inclusion, Danza, Kid Cruz, Mr. ?????-I can't read my writing, Viva Majorica, Ulan Bator, Commanding Curve, General A Rod, Ring Weekend, Pablo Delmonte, and Dynamic Impact.

In his SIX grade one races, California Chrome finished behind Tonalist, Commissioner, Medal Count, Bayern and Toast of New York.

[MargieRose]

I don't get all of this comparing of horse racing to other types of sports with "teams" and how "teams" win or lose. If there were "teams" that moved forward into play-offs based on an over all group effort in horse racing, then maybe a valid comparison could be made, but there are not. In horse racing there is usually such a mishmosh of individual players and conditions that it is almost impossible to separate out the one who is truly the best.

Winning races is an concrete number...black and white. Winning an Eclipse award, especially for the horses, is an abstract number...subjective at best. Bayern may have won a number by the stewards decision, but the majority of the horse racing population (apparently, including many of the Eclipse voters) believe that the stewards decision was wrong; therefore, only an abstract judgment could be made.

Only when horse racing is set up in such a way that true one-on-one comparisons could be made will award decisions be able to be made using solely concrete numbers.

How about starting something new? Set up a "world series/super bowl" of horse racing for equally mature four year olds. Small teams; races to determine the best two teams; play-offs to determine the trophy winning "team"...no "fresh" entrants. Or, something to this effect. And, if anything like this is not feasible, then in reality, horse racing award winners can never be based solely on concrete numbers, nor should they be.

[Cratos]

I think Pandy means that everything went Bayern's way and he still only won by a very small margin. If anything goes against him, which often happens in horse races, he loses and if it REALLY goes against him, he's up the track because he's a one dimensional horse who can't adjust to adversity.
The single biggest retardant to a horse’s speed (especially in the straight) is aerodynamic drag. Calculate the energy saved by both Toast of New York and California Chrome in the BC Classic and you might change your mind about ground loss and speed ratings.

[Stillriledup]

The single biggest retardant to a horse’s speed (especially in the straight) is aerodynamic drag. Calculate the energy saved by both Toast of New York and California Chrome in the BC Classic and you might change your mind about ground loss and speed ratings.

I'm not sure what you mean, is that sort of like being "covered up" in harness racing? How was CC and TONY saving energy by having to run farther? Im not following.

[mostpost]

The single biggest retardant to a horse’s speed (especially in the straight) is aerodynamic drag. Calculate the energy saved by both Toast of New York and California Chrome in the BC Classic and you might change your mind about ground loss and speed ratings.
Please explain why and how you think California Chrome saved energy in the Breeders Cup Classic as compared to Bayern. Since you mentioned aerodynamic dynamic drag, it apparently has something to do with that. But please tell me why that would affect Bayern and not California Chrome.

[Cratos]

I'm not sure what you mean, is that sort of like being "covered up" in harness racing? How was CC and TONY saving energy by having to run farther? Im not following.
I am not going into depth about my assertion, but CC was about 2 lengths behind and no more than 3 wide throughout the race which put him very much in the drafting "cone" and allowed him to save up to 35% of his energy in the straights and Santa Anita. being the so-called "exact mile" racetrack with 6f of the 1-1/4 distance being straight.

Therefore even with the incident at the start Bayern had the worse of it throughout the race with respect to energy expenditure and still won.

[Cratos]

Please explain why and how you think California Chrome saved energy in the Breeders Cup Classic as compared to Bayern. Since you mentioned aerodynamic dynamic drag, it apparently has something to do with that. But please tell me why that would affect Bayern and not California Chrome.
Ok I will do the calculation and post them tomorrow.

[mostpost]

I'm not sure what you mean, is that sort of like being "covered up" in harness racing? How was CC and TONY saving energy by having to run farther? Im not following.
Neither am I. Cratos seems to be thinking that because CC and TONY were behind Bayern he was blocking the wind for them. But if you look at the replay both horses were plainly outside of Bayern. They were running into the wind and were running further than Bayern. It was like this.
.................................................. ..........Bayern
..................................Toast of New York
............California Chrome
Not:
California Chrome...Toast of New York....Bayern

[Cratos]

Neither am I. Cratos seems to be thinking that because CC and TONY were behind Bayern he was blocking the wind for them. But if you look at the replay both horses were plainly outside of Bayern. They were running into the wind and were running further than Bayern. It was like this.
.................................................. ..........Bayern
..................................Toast of New York
............California Chrome
Not:
California Chrome...Toast of New York....Bayern
In all due respect you are not understanding the "drafting cone." It is not a rectangle, it is a triangle with a 20 degree inclusive angle and both Toast of New York and CC were inside of it.

[Frost king]

Have you ever seen a flock of geese fly in formation? The leader breaks the wind for the others. That is why they take turns on the point when they fly. The further out from the front, the easier it is to fly.

[Cratos]

Have you ever seen a flock of geese fly in formation? The leader breaks the wind for the others. That is why they take turns on the point when they fly. The further out from the front, the easier it is to fly.
I agree with you, but what did I post contradict what you posted?

[pandy]

I am not going into depth about my assertion, but CC was about 2 lengths behind and no more than 3 wide throughout the race which put him very much in the drafting "cone" and allowed him to save up to 35% of his energy in the straights and Santa Anita. being the so-called "exact mile" racetrack with 6f of the 1-1/4 distance being straight.

Therefore even with the incident at the start Bayern had the worse of it throughout the race with respect to energy expenditure and still won.


You're totally ignoring the fact that it was Santa Anita, a track that has always favored front runners in route races when they can set their own pace, and has been even more speed favoring the past few years. I've seen hundreds of cheap speed horses stretch out around two turns (usually from inside posts) and wire the field at Santa Anita. Plus, Bayern likes to race on the lead, as long as no one challenges him, he is actually saving ground because that is "his" trip. And his big races were all on tracks that favor speed, which is not a coincidence.


Your energy expenditure theories will fit many, maybe even most races, but there are exceptions. Bayern did not get a tougher trip than Chrome. He got his trip and the fact that he took out his main pace rival, and seriously impeded a horse that is probably the best colt in the country, his trip turned into a dream trip.

[mostpost]

Have you ever seen a flock of geese fly in formation? The leader breaks the wind for the others. That is why they take turns on the point when they fly. The further out from the front, the easier it is to fly.
Funny thing. As I was looking up drafting behind various objects I learned that the reason geese fly in a V formation is not to break the wind. It is too increase lift. Each bird increases the lift to the bird to the outside of the formation. Therefore the birds to the outside need to expend increasingly less energy to stay airborne. By rotating who is in the center and who is on the wings of the V he flock is able to fly for great distances.

[Cratos]

You're totally ignoring the fact that it was Santa Anita, a track that has always favored front runners in route races when they can set their own pace, and has been even more speed favoring the past few years. I've seen hundreds of cheap speed horses stretch out around two turns (usually from inside posts) and wire the field at Santa Anita. Plus, Bayern likes to race on the lead, as long as no one challenges him, he is actually saving ground because that is "his" trip. And his big races were all on tracks that favor speed, which is not a coincidence.


Your energy expenditure theories will fit many, maybe even most races, but there are exceptions. Bayern did not get a tougher trip than Chrome. He got his trip and the fact that he took out his main pace rival, and seriously impeded a horse that is probably the best colt in the country, his trip turned into a dream trip.
In all due apologies I am not ignoring anything about Santa Anita and if you followed my posts you would have seen the tracks layouts which I posted. Also I have calculated the COF of Santa Anita's new dirt surface which was recently installed.

Therefore what am I missing beside some anecdotal data that is mere conjecture by many.

[PaceAdvantage]

The most ridiculous comparison that I've heard is that Bayern
won 2 out of 3 encounters over CC, therefore he's better.
Way too simplistic.

CC had little, or no, chance of being near his best at Parx.
Bayern had been drilled by CC in the Preakness.
Some argue those two races should cancel each other out.
Again - way too simplistic.

So then, does it all ride on the BC Classic?
Is that what it comes down to,
regardless of trips and distance beaten?

Seems that a little race called the KY Derby
has been (conveniently) forgotten. :ThmbDown:You act as if Bayern had a dream trip in the Preakness. Try and be just a little bit objective.

[PaceAdvantage]

Bayern took out his competition in the race. There's no getting around that.Yes there is. Watch the overhead.

[PaceAdvantage]

You are cherry picking. Why are the last four races more important than the first five?Because many of the first five, for instance the pre-triple crown races, mean diddly squat. You can say they are a grade 1, but they are by no means equivalent to the races later in the year. They are by no means equivalent to the BC Classic.

So, you take those meaningless races out of the equation, and you are staring at a horse winning all year-end honors over a horse who beat him fair and square, 2 of 3 times...with one of those wins at the classic distance of 10 furlongs.

And by the way, Bayern got a shit trip in the Preakness, the one race where he lost to California Chrome. See, I can play that game too...

[The WindfallAngler]

Yes there is. Watch the overhead.To the contrary, the film's overhead angle falls far short of being exculpatory. This is because the "bumping" aspect wasn't crucial.

BAYERN's interfering left turn is plain as day, forcing horses inside him to race at a disadvantage, some more than others.

[pandy]

To the contrary, the film's overhead angle falls far short of being exculpatory. This is because the "bumping" aspect wasn't crucial.

BAYERN's interfering left turn is plain as day, forcing horses inside him to race at a disadvantage, some more than others.

With the exception of Andy Beyer, every turf writer and analyst I can think who voiced their opinion either on TV, radio, or in print, thought that Bayern should have been dq'd.

[PaceAdvantage]

With the exception of Andy Beyer, every turf writer and analyst I can think who voiced their opinion either on TV, radio, or in print, thought that Bayern should have been dq'd.Something tells me some of them have probably changed their mind by now...

[pandy]

Something tells me some of them have probably changed their mind by now...

How can that be when Bayern finished third in the voting? I still say, if Bayern comes out of the gate straight, out duels Moreno, shakes off Shared Belief, then holds off Chrome and any other challengers in the stretch and wins, he would have been voted Horse of the Year. The incident at the start cost him a ton of votes because the voters basically drew a line through his classic win.

At the very least, it would have been a close vote, not a runaway for Chrome.

[camourous]

How can that be when Bayern finished third in the voting? I still say, if Bayern comes out of the gate straight, out duels Moreno, shakes off Shared Belief, then holds off Chrome and any other challengers in the stretch and wins, he would have been voted Horse of the Year. The incident at the start cost him a ton of votes because the voters basically drew a line through his classic win.

At the very least, it would have been a close vote, not a runaway for Chrome.

Voters should vote based on the official results of races, not on whether or not they feel a horse should of been Dq'd or if they toss a race out because the horses wasn't fit enough. If they did that then then need to toss Bayern's Preakness and Shared Belief's Classic.

[classhandicapper]

Funny thing. As I was looking up drafting behind various objects I learned that the reason geese fly in a V formation is not to break the wind. It is too increase lift. Each bird increases the lift to the bird to the outside of the formation. Therefore the birds to the outside need to expend increasingly less energy to stay airborne. By rotating who is in the center and who is on the wings of the V he flock is able to fly for great distances.

This whole geese discussion is the most interesting stuff in the thread. ;)

[pandy]

Voters should vote based on the official results of races, not on whether or not they feel a horse should of been Dq'd or if they toss a race out because the horses wasn't fit enough. If they did that then then need to toss Bayern's Preakness and Shared Belief's Classic.

I don't agree. If a horse wins a GR1 by shaking loose on the lead through a modest pace over a speed biased track and another horse wins a GR1 by surviving a three way heated pace duel through torrid fractions over a closer's track, I'm going to give the horse that survived the pace duel more credit for his win. I'm also going to consider who he beat.

[Cratos]

I don't agree. If a horse wins a GR1 by shaking loose on the lead through a modest pace over a speed biased track and another horse wins a GR1 by surviving a three way heated pace duel through torrid fractions over a closer's track, I'm going to give the horse that survived the pace duel more credit for his win. I'm also going to consider who he beat.
Please explain the concept of "speed bias" in layman's terms. What I am asking is what cause a racetrack to be "speed biased?"

[cj]

Please explain the concept of "speed bias" in layman's terms. What I am asking is what cause a racetrack to be "speed biased?"

Can be lots of things, wind, moisture, track not the same inside to out (usually moisture again), etc.

[Cratos]

Can be lots of things, wind, moisture, track not the same inside to out (usually moisture again), etc.
I agree that the things you mentioned are contributors to retarding a horse's speed, but the most significant one which has been related to by the poster , Masgtri Ludi on this forum is glaringly missing.

[pandy]

Weather as CJ points out can create a bias, but we've seen that even in seemingly perfect weather conditions for racing Santa Anita can be extremely speed favoring.

There are people who say that there's no such thing as track bias, or that track bias rarely occurs. They are wrong and I don't understand where they get that crazy idea from.

[Cratos]

Weather as CJ points out can create a bias, but we've seen that even in seemingly perfect weather conditions for racing Santa Anita can be extremely speed favoring.

There are people who say that there's no such thing as track bias, or that track bias rarely occurs. They are wrong and I don't understand where they get that crazy idea from.
Yes weather can be a retardant to a horse's speed, but that will always be true unless the horse is running in a vacuum.

I believe people who state that there isn't a " track bias" is semantically referring to an environmental bias which is probably a better and more comprehensive way of stating the retardants to a horse's speed.

[classhandicapper]

I agree that the things you mentioned are contributors to retarding a horse's speed, but the most significant one which has been related to by the poster , Masgtri Ludi on this forum is glaringly missing.

Are you referring to things like where the start is in relation to the first turn for certain distances, how tight the turns are etc.. ?

Both types of biases (surface and track layout) are grouped under the same title, but they are different things. One will almost always exist (related to the track layout and first turn) and the other seems to be dependent on weather, track maintenance, moisture etc...

[Cratos]

Are you referring to things like where the start is in relation to the first turn for certain distances, how tight the turns are etc.. ?

Both types of biases (surface and track layout) are grouped under the same title, but they are different things. One will almost always exist (related to the track layout and first turn) and the other seems to be dependent on weather, track maintenance, moisture etc...
You are correct, track geometry can be a retardant to a horse's speed.

[mostpost]

1. Because many of the first five, for instance the pre-triple crown races, mean diddly squat. You can say they are a grade 1, but they are by no means equivalent to the races later in the year. They are by no means equivalent to the BC Classic.

2. So, you take those meaningless races out of the equation, and you are staring at a horse winning all year-end honors over a horse who beat him fair and square, 2 of 3 times...with one of those wins at the classic distance of 10 furlongs.

3. And by the way, Bayern got a shit trip in the Preakness, the one race where he lost to California Chrome. See, I can play that game too...
1. You like to arbitrarily change the rules to suit your opinion. The Kentucky Derby is a race that every horse owner wants to win. Therefore, every horse who is a possible contender and is healthy will be entered. The winner of the Kentucky Derby has beaten the best three year old's available. The same applies-to a lesser degree to the Preakness and the Belmont. A win in a Triple Crown event is very important in determining stud fees.

A good showing in the Derby Prep races is also important in determining whether a horse can run in the Derby. Because of the points system now in use, a horse must do well in the preps.

You may be able to say that the Breeders Cup Classic is somewhat more challenging than the earlier three year old races because older horses have been added to the mix. You cannot dismiss those three year old races as "diddly squat." They are important and deserve to be given fair consideration.

2. First of all, they are not meaningless races and you can't take them out of consideration. Then, if you look at the three head to head match ups, you have the Preakness which Bayern lost badly and the Pennsylvania Derby which California Chrome lost badly. Regardless of whether one or the other horse had a bad trip or was not sufficiently cranked up for either race, let's just say that the two races cancel each other out.

That leaves us with the Breeders Cup Classic. Despite the fact that there is some question about the effect of Bayern's left turn on the result of the race, I am going to stipulate that it had no effect and that Bayern won the race fair and square. The question then becomes, "Does Bayern"s victory in the BCC trump California Chrome's superiority leading into the race. I say it does not.

Prior to the Breeders Cup Classic, California Chrome had raced seven times. He had won five of those races. Three of those five victories had come in Grade 1 races, the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. One, the San Felipe was in a Grade 2 stakes and the fifth win was in a non graded stakes for California breds. One of California Chromes two defeats was in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes while the second was in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. He was fourth in the Belmont and sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby,

In the meantime, Bayern had raced nine times prior to the Breeders Cup. Classic. He had also won five races. But only one of those, the Haskell was a Grade 1 stakes. Two of Bayern's victories came in Grade 2 stakes; those being the Woody Stephens (at seven furlongs) and the Pennsylvania Derby.
Bayern also won a maiden race and an allowance race. Bayern's four defeats (twice as many as California Chrome) prior to the Breeders Cup Classic, came in the Arkansas Derby (he was third), the Derby Trial (he was second), the Preakness (he was ninth) and the Travers (he was tenth).

How anyone can look at the overall records of the two horses and believe that Bayern was the equal of-or even close to-California Chrome going into the Breeders Cup Classic is totally beyond me.

3. Later.

[Stillriledup]

1. You like to arbitrarily change the rules to suit your opinion. The Kentucky Derby is a race that every horse owner wants to win. Therefore, every horse who is a possible contender and is healthy will be entered. The winner of the Kentucky Derby has beaten the best three year old's available. The same applies-to a lesser degree to the Preakness and the Belmont. A win in a Triple Crown event is very important in determining stud fees.

A good showing in the Derby Prep races is also important in determining whether a horse can run in the Derby. Because of the points system now in use, a horse must do well in the preps.

You may be able to say that the Breeders Cup Classic is somewhat more challenging than the earlier three year old races because older horses have been added to the mix. You cannot dismiss those three year old races as "diddly squat." They are important and deserve to be given fair consideration.

2. First of all, they are not meaningless races and you can't take them out of consideration. Then, if you look at the three head to head match ups, you have the Preakness which Bayern lost badly and the Pennsylvania Derby which California Chrome lost badly. Regardless of whether one or the other horse had a bad trip or was not sufficiently cranked up for either race, let's just say that the two races cancel each other out.

That leaves us with the Breeders Cup Classic. Despite the fact that there is some question about the effect of Bayern's left turn on the result of the race, I am going to stipulate that it had no effect and that Bayern won the race fair and square. The question then becomes, "Does Bayern"s victory in the BCC trump California Chrome's superiority leading into the race. I say it does not.

Prior to the Breeders Cup Classic, California Chrome had raced seven times. He had won five of those races. Three of those five victories had come in Grade 1 races, the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. One, the San Felipe was in a Grade 2 stakes and the fifth win was in a non graded stakes for California breds. One of California Chromes two defeats was in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes while the second was in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. He was fourth in the Belmont and sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby,

In the meantime, Bayern had raced nine times prior to the Breeders Cup. Classic. He had also won five races. But only one of those, the Haskell was a Grade 1 stakes. Two of Bayern's victories came in Grade 2 stakes; those being the Woody Stephens (at seven furlongs) and the Pennsylvania Derby.
Bayern also won a maiden race and an allowance race. Bayern's four defeats (twice as many as California Chrome) prior to the Breeders Cup Classic, came in the Arkansas Derby (he was third), the Derby Trial (he was second), the Preakness (he was ninth) and the Travers (he was tenth).

How anyone can look at the overall records of the two horses and believe that Bayern was the equal of-or even close to-California Chrome going into the Breeders Cup Classic is totally beyond me.

3. Later.

Great writeup.

This CC vs Bayern battle really comes down to this. If you throw out the Classic, Preakness and Pa Derby and don't use any of those 3 races at all, what do you have left for both horses?

If you say the Preakness and Pa Derby cancel each other out because those were "non efforts" from B and CC and you say the Classic cancels out because both horses were essentially on the line together so they were "equal" in their performance, you have all the other stuff.......which puts CC WAY ahead of B. Now if CC is "way ahead" of B on all the "other stuff" what the debate really comes down to is what is more important, all the "other stuff" that puts CC 'way ahead" or the small margin that separated them in the Classic.

1) Does 4 inches cancel out the huge "lead" that CC had going into the race.

2) Does CC's more ground lost than Bayern cancel out those 4 inches anyway even if CC didn't have this hypothetical "lead" in accomplishments?

If horse racing instituted a "points" system where you get a certain amount of points for certain accomplishments, and Bayern received 100 points for his Classic win, wouldn't CC receive 98 or 99 points for his classic effort? Or, maybe if you factored in ground loss, you could give CC 102 points for his Classic effort and Bayern only gets 100? No matter how you distributed the points, Bayern would only have, at best, 1 or 2 more points than CC anyway for the Classic.

[mostpost]

And by the way, Bayern got a shit trip in the Preakness, the one race where he lost to California Chrome. See, I can play that game too...
I guess perspective is everything. I watched the Youtube replay or the race several times and I could see no severe interference with Bayern. He bobbled at the start and maybe had to steady a bit mid stretch.
Then I watched the official replay from Pimlico with the Pimlico announcer. The angle was different and there were definitely instances where Ria Antonia came over and bumped with Bayern. There was at least one instance of bumping with a horse to Bayern's inside.

Compare that with the start of the Breeders Cup Classic. Bayern definitely came over towards Shared Belief-even the overhead shows that. There may have been no actual contact, but Shared Belief had to move sharply left to stay out of Bayern's way. In the Preakness, while Bayern was bumped, he did not have to alter course nearly as much as Shared Belief did in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Yet you seem to think that the start of the Preakness had a significant impact on the result of the race, while the start of the BCC had no impact.

Of course, a major difference is that the problems at the start of the BCC were caused by the horse who eventually won the race; while the problems at the start of the Preakness were caused by a horse who eventually finished last.

[Rex Phinney]

LOL Bayern beating chrome by 6 inches has turned into now 4 inches. Give it long enough and some of you guys will have yourselves convinced that Chrome actually won the classic.

Biggest race of the year in North America, open company, 10 furlongs, Bayern wins gate to wire. This makes the second straight time he beat CC. Chrome runs a good race with a clean trip.

This is not at all difficult. All it says is that too many people are drinking the Kentucky Derby Kool Aid.

As a side note shame on the voters for not putting Tonalist in the finalist for 3YO of the year. He won the Belmont and the JCGC. He was deserving of at least being a finalist.

[The WindfallAngler]

...Biggest race of the year in North America, open company, 10 furlongs, Bayern wins gate to wire. This makes the second straight time he beat CC... These were CC's two straight races in the wake of his triple crown campaign (post-injury), yes. But let's keep the sample simple and bet with confidence, eh?

Bayern hit the tape soonest, to be sure; his connections made big bucks and, to an extent, so did his backers. But, at best, what Bayern did was "steal it" (in the parlance of our times) whether this means bias-aided, trip assisted, steward ordained or some unholy mix. Only a dwindling few still stubbornly hold he actually "won" it.

[Cratos]

These were CC's two straight races in the wake of his triple crown campaign (post-injury), yes. But let's keep the sample simple and bet with confidence, eh?

Bayern hit the tape soonest, to be sure; his connections made big bucks and, to an extent, so did his backers. But, at best, what Bayern did was "steal it" (in the parlance of our times) whether this means bias-aided, trip assisted, steward ordained or some unholy mix. Only a dwindling few still stubbornly hold he actually "won" it.
So Bayern was "given" the BC Classic victory because he should have been disqualified (and I don't believe this ar all).

However this "great" horse, CC who had a clean trip and couldn't win.

Therefore how did what Bayern did or did not do affect CC's chance of winning?

[Rex Phinney]

These were CC's two straight races in the wake of his triple crown campaign (post-injury), yes. But let's keep the sample simple and bet with confidence, eh?

Bayern hit the tape soonest, to be sure; his connections made big bucks and, to an extent, so did his backers. But, at best, what Bayern did was "steal it" (in the parlance of our times) whether this means bias-aided, trip assisted, steward ordained or some unholy mix. Only a dwindling few still stubbornly hold he actually "won" it.

You're making excuses. Plain and simple.

Why California Chrome's owners decided to run their horse in Pennsylvania even though anyone with half a brain knew he wouldn't be ready is their problem. Not the voters. They entered their horse that day in a very ill advised spot because they wanted to get paid. O well.

You're whining and crying that Chrome ran in the triple crown and got injured. Well guess what, Bayern ran in the Derby Trial, Preakness and Woody Stephens (and the Haskell, and the Travers) which all happen in 6 weeks. He was scratched from the San Felipe, because he had foot issues. So he ran just as much as Chrome did, and battled an injury too.

Let me ask some of you who think Bayern "stole" the classic. What are you going to think if he beats Chrome again on Feb 7th? How many times does he have to beat Chrome before you are convinced he is better?

California Chrome is what you get when too many people drink the Kentucky Derby Kool Aid. It means that if a horse wins Derby he gets a pass for the next 7 months and still wins horse of the year. California Chrome did nothing after May 17 to merit winning HOTY. He lost 3 of his last 4 races and never beat older horses.

[clocker7]

Whine whine whine.

Guys, it's just a vote, not your pocketbook. You are the hard core. You should be crowing about your huge scores on Bayern in 2014 and assembling your little shrines to him in your hallway, instead of being distracted by something that is meaningless in pursuit of your passion's real objective.

So how did you manage to be thrown so off track? The first rule is to control your emotions, remember?

[Stillriledup]

These were CC's two straight races in the wake of his triple crown campaign (post-injury), yes. But let's keep the sample simple and bet with confidence, eh?

Bayern hit the tape soonest, to be sure; his connections made big bucks and, to an extent, so did his backers. But, at best, what Bayern did was "steal it" (in the parlance of our times) whether this means bias-aided, trip assisted, steward ordained or some unholy mix. Only a dwindling few still stubbornly hold he actually "won" it.

I think Bayern fans using the non dq as a "False flag" when in reality his performance didn't "separate" him from CC in any way, shape or form, dq or no dq.

Love the "unholy mix" comments, i might use that going forward!

[The WindfallAngler]

So Bayern was "given" the BC Classic victory because he should have been disqualified (and I don't believe this ar all).Whether you believe it--and some, who are skeptical of Bayern, do not (even though they have expressed a profound dissatisfaction with the 2014 Classic, apart from the non DQ)--I never wrote that Bayern was "given" the BC Classic victory.

I said he stole it. Then I offered variations on that theme that could apply.However this "great" horse, CC who had a clean trip and couldn't win..Had California Chrome enjoyed a trip as "clean" as Bayern's I am persuaded he would have gone right on by. ...If i understood you correctly.
This is familiar ground, by the way, and is discussed in detail elsewhere.
Therefore how did what Bayern did or did not do affect CC's chance of winning?Bayern obviously was fully cranked.
While an honest pace would have been helpful, for CC--in that he was making only his second start and he undoubtedly lacked his keenest edge--i reject the notion that CC "needs" a pace meltdown in front of him.

The replays do reveal an injustice, or so I believe. Some perceive it; others do not. This much was clear. Entirely too much was riding on the Breeders Cup Classic, for viewers to suffer such a grotesque spectacle.

[The WindfallAngler]

You're making excuses. Plain and simple.No, I'm simply skeptical of skimpy samples and race results which are not trustworthy, for Eclipse judging purposes.

But hey--relax! Just because a clear plurality of us refused to join in the metronomic lockstep of you Bottom Liners, doesn't mean your votes weren't counted, heheh.Why California Chrome's owners decided to run their horse in Pennsylvania even though anyone with half a brain knew he wouldn't be ready is their problem. Not the voters.Here, you're letting emotions get the better of you. It is YOU who appear to be having a problem. The vote went against you. Play past it!They entered their horse that day in a very ill advised spot because they wanted to get paid. O well.Without a doubt, that $400,000 bonus money that CC's connections collected purely for showing up, in the Pennsylvania Derby, was welcome. (Although CC arguably didn't get much out of the paid workout, covered up on the rail as he was.)

The loss is a "problem" only if one accepts the idea Bayern's track record time was a stinging rebuke and repudiation of CC's quality. ...which I do not.You're whining and crying that Chrome ran in the triple crown and got injured. Well guess what, Bayern ran in the Derby Trial, Preakness and Woody Stephens (and the Haskell, and the Travers) which all happen in 6 weeks. He was scratched from the San Felipe, because he had foot issues. So he ran just as much as Chrome did, and battled an injury too.Except that Bayern wasn't doing it against the best available competition (which is what competing in all three legs of the triple crown ensures) as CC was doing (even while becoming one of only a few dozen ever Dual Classic winners).Let me ask some of you who think Bayern "stole" the classic. What are you going to think if he beats Chrome again on Feb 7th? How many times does he have to beat Chrome before you are convinced he is better?At the risk of seeming flippant, time will tell. Personally, I am persuaded that neither of Bayern' "wins" were earned. Consequently, I would need to watch him win *unassisted* at least once, before I even begin to entertain the notion that CC's Horse of the Year title was not well warranted.California Chrome is what you get when too many people drink the Kentucky Derby Kool Aid. It means that if a horse wins Derby he gets a pass for the next 7 months and still wins horse of the year. California Chrome did nothing after May 17 to merit winning HOTY. He lost 3 of his last 4 races and never beat older horses.Keep murmuring that mantra. If Bayern, the *now horse,* keeps beating worlds, then CC's HoY-crown will abrubptly lose luster. His popularity would then wither upon the pages of thoroughbred racing history.

What you'll need to sweat, as 2015 unfolds, will be that Eclipse voters did in fact get it right. (I am one who is convinced the triple crown championship was no further away from CC than a few lengths of lost ground: this was *trouble* the colt could readily overcome, had he not missed a step or two while bleeding out of the gate, from the rail.) But be that as it may.

Voters appear to have sorted out the meaning of those four races. Were they wrong? Stay tuned.

[mostpost]

You're making excuses. Plain and simple.

Why California Chrome's owners decided to run their horse in Pennsylvania even though anyone with half a brain knew he wouldn't be ready is their problem. Not the voters. They entered their horse that day in a very ill advised spot because they wanted to get paid. O well.
Everyone enters every horse in every spot because they want to get paid. But there was a more important reason. Had he not run in the Pennsylvania Derby, California Chrome would have been away from the race track for one hundred and forty seven days when he stepped into the starting gate on Breeders Cup Saturday. The Pa. Derby was an important part of his training regimen.

You're whining and crying that Chrome ran in the triple crown and got injured. Well guess what, Bayern ran in the Derby Trial, Preakness and Woody Stephens (and the Haskell, and the Travers) which all happen in 6 weeks. He was scratched from the San Felipe, because he had foot issues. So he ran just as much as Chrome did, and battled an injury too.
So you think that running in races of one mile, one mile and three sixteenths, and seven furlongs-and winning only the shortest of those races-is equivalent to running in races of a mile and a quarter, a mile and three sixteenths and a mile and half? You have got to be kidding me!!!! As far as foot issues, I believe those were well behind him by the Derby Trial. He did run in the Arkansas Derby three weeks before.

Let me ask some of you who think Bayern "stole" the classic. What are you going to think if he beats Chrome again on Feb 7th? How many times does he have to beat Chrome before you are convinced he is better?

California Chrome is what you get when too many people drink the Kentucky Derby Kool Aid. It means that if a horse wins Derby he gets a pass for the next 7 months and still wins horse of the year. California Chrome did nothing after May 17 to merit winning HOTY. He lost 3 of his last 4 races and never beat older horses.
I don't know what I will think if Bayern beats California Chrome on Feb. 7. What will you think if Chrome beats Bayern? That is a much more likely scenario.

As for California Chrome beating older horses, Bayern only beat older horses one time and California Chrome finished ahead of every one of those older horses which Bayern beat.

[mostpost]

He (California Chrome) lost 3 of his last 4 races and never beat older horses.
California Chrome beat every older horse that Bayern beat and only by 3 and 3/4 inches less.

[Some_One]

California Chrome beat every older horse that Bayern beat and only by 3 and 3/4 inches less.

So did Shared Belief & Tonalist.

[Tom]

I don't see that CC had any trouble at all in the Classic.
He just was not as good as Bayern that day.

Bayern had to overcome time and ground lost mugging the rest of the field and then still outrun CC. :lol:

[Rex Phinney]

California Chrome beat every older horse that Bayern beat and only by 3 and 3/4 inches less.

Now it's 3.75 inches huh.

If it was CC on the lead thru the stretch like that and someone like Shared Belief couldn't pass him, all we would hear is what a gutsy horse CC is. Since it's Bayern noone wants to call it like that.

[Tom]

I agree with you - Bayern was not going to get caught.
He was the better horse.
That day.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree with you - Bayern was not going to get caught.
He was the better horse.
That day.He was the better horse on 2 of 3 days...I spot a trend...

The voters didn't agree I guess... :bang:

[Stillriledup]

He was the better horse on 2 of 3 days...I spot a trend...

The voters didn't agree I guess... :bang:

Getting to the wire first and the "better horse" are two different things.

[Rex Phinney]

Getting to the wire first and the "better horse" are two different things.

So now we can't even say that Bayern was the better horse on the 2 days he won???

Even saying he was "the better horse" 2 out of 3 days is going to draw lame remarks.

[Stillriledup]

So now we can't even say that Bayern was the better horse on the 2 days he won???

Even saying he was "the better horse" 2 out of 3 days is going to draw lame remarks.

You could say what you want, nobody's stopping you. If you think Bayern was the better horse in the Classic, i'm not going to try and talk you out of it.