Bounces

[Valuist]

I've never seen a study which conclusively shows horses bounce, and if they do, how badly.

There was a candidate in the first at Haw today: Priceless Fact, who was coming off a lifetime number in his last. He did clear and set the pace but wasnt good enough to get the win. Still he didn't fall apart and ran second.

I see Midway Road is entered Friday at Pimlico. He DEFINITELY qualifies as a bounce candidate.

[cj]

On my numbers, Midway Road has run similiar numbers three times in his career. The first two times, he ran at least 10 points lower next time out. I'll take my chances and toss him right away.


MIDWAY ROAD 4yo Ky EP

Kee 04/22/2004 9.0 5/ 5 sly BenAli G3 Drew off hand urging 110 119 110 119| 115*
FG 03/18/2004 8.2 5/ 6 fst OClm 62500N 4 w 3 w edge flattened 96 99 94 94| 94
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Tdn 06/21/2003 9.0 2/ 7 fst OhioDrby G2 Checked hard 1st turn 87 101 83 94| 95
Pim 05/17/2003 9.5 6/10 gd Preaknes G1 Rail trip, bump 1/16pl 117 108 113 96| 113
Kee 04/24/2003 8.5 1/ 8 fst Alw 58115N2X Ridden out, 4w 94 95 94 95| 101*
FG 03/22/2003 6.0 1/ 6 fst Alw 30000N2X Not enough late 96 87 86 83| 92
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FG 01/11/2003 7.5 5/ 6 fm BlackGoldH75k Stalked, weakened 56 87 53 82| 82t
CD 11/30/2002 8.5 10/12 fst KyJC G2 4w bid faltered late 104 93 101 87| 103
Kee 10/19/2002 8.5 1/ 9 fst Alw 52205N2L Rallied 4w driving 105 99 103 99| 113*
AP 09/07/2002 6.0 6/ 8 fst SpectclrBd75k No factor 83 82 70 64| 77

[Tom]

I'll go out on limb here and offer this:
The last two time the horse ran these big numbers, his pace/speed balance was 103-99 and 113-96. The last race was 110-119, which is a reverse of his usual faster early number. Maybe this means he was not pressured as much as the previous two times and will still move forward.
I have seen a lot of patterns like this and more than a few times a new top is on tap. The pace number is the key.
What might happen, andI see this a lot too, is that next time he will earn a new pace top and his final will either delcine or repeat and the next race afte that is the new forward move.
Of course, the odds will be the deciding factor for a bet, but this type of improvment is interesting and has paid some nice prices this year.
Or, did the slop cause the big final number?
Isn't this game fun? I love the puzzles.

[the little guy]

I am not an adherent of the " bounce theory " per se as I see it as an all encompassing umbrella. It seems to me that situations often dictate whether or not a bounce or regression is likely. When a horse runs a big race or number, the circumstances that led to it are the most likely determining factor, at least to me, as to whether or not the horse will regress or not.

So, in the case of Midway Road, a horse who showed mild potential throughout his short career, but never really ran more than a decent race, isn't the most obvious and likely reason for his freakishly good performance the track condition? To me, he freaked in the Keeneland mud, and the likelihood of that performance being repeated at Pimlico is very slim. I won't consider him running fourth, or even worse, a bounce as much as a logical finish.

[Valuist]

I agree w/Tom in that the inflated final figures that occur when there is a soft early pace are great go-againsts next out. We see this a lot in routes where pace is more significant than in sprints.

And slop and/or Kee could've been the cause for Midway Road, who ran a big # there last spring.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by the little guy
I am not an adherent of the " bounce theory " per se as I see it as an all encompassing umbrella. It seems to me that situations often dictate whether or not a bounce or regression is likely. When a horse runs a big race or number, the circumstances that led to it are the most likely determining factor, at least to me, as to whether or not the horse will regress or not.


I agree. One test that I've been using is the Formulator 4 Beyer Speed Figure trainer profile features. I test a trainer's record with the age group and recency (and sometimes circuit or track) coming off of a top Beyer last out and/or with a "3 and out" pattern.

[Fastracehorse]

With horses there is no given - everyone knows that.

However, very often a horse who runs a much improved effort, will run another within a short period of time.

But trainers play games. Sometimes their 2nd race is flat - then they try again the 3rd start.

Most horses run their 2nd good effort within 15 - 21 days or so - but like I said, there is no given - it could be 35 days.

Like Tom said, many horses also improve after showing a good pace # - or improved early speed if you like. A sign that the horse is sharpening.

Many profiles of winners show a good speed effort their last start.

fffastt