Awful Bad Beat - Ticket screen shot/photo

[Track Phantom]

A guy who regularly gets the Track Phantom analysis sheets emailed me today and said he was singling my best bet (#7 Metaboss in the 4th leg) along with ALL's around it. I had 3 or 4 email exchanges with him trying to talk him out of it. He wouldn't budge.

The email, with his ticket screen shot and the photo of the 5th race. (I blocked out his last name).

If you didn't see the race, it looked like the longshot caught the favorite. This sucks!

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/BadBetPhoto_992x600_zpse665169a.jpg

[FantasticDan]

The :2: losing the whip in the stretch only makes it more :mad: :bang: :mad:

[CosmicWon]

I don't know how to get pics to load but this was my bad beat today:
https://twitter.com/GustavoJDelgado/status/551849286271795201

I had the deuce at 40-1 who just gets run down by the TAP. That's a link to the photo. Long story short, I was bummed. <tiny violins>

[tanner12oz]

Brutal

[OTM Al]

I think you added a letter "a" that was unneeded. Awful bad bet, but you did try to tell him. And he still almost lucked into it. At least he got some of his money back. Could have been worse.

[Stillriledup]

Honestly, it was a horrendous wager, there were horses who could have been tossed out and the only race he singled was the toughest of them all on paper. The 1 in the first race had 0 chance as did the 3 in Leg 2 and the 1 in leg 5. A better bet (assuming a similar ticket structure) would have been:

2345678 w 1245678 w A w 7 w 234567 that would have only cost 1,029. Throwing 33% of your ticket cost on horses with 0 chance isn't very smart business, that will get you to the poor house a lot quicker.

[Track Phantom]

Honestly, it was a horrendous wager, there were horses who could have been tossed out and the only race he singled was the toughest of them all on paper. The 1 in the first race had 0 chance as did the 3 in Leg 2 and the 1 in leg 5. A better bet (assuming a similar ticket structure) would have been:

2345678 w 1245678 w A w 7 w 234567 that would have only cost 1,029. Throwing 33% of your ticket cost on horses with 0 chance isn't very smart business, that will get you to the poor house a lot quicker.

C'mon! While you're right that some of the runners looked like obvious toss-outs, one of those was the frickin' #2 in the last leg. That horse looked hopeless. I see how you added him in your ticket.

Give me a break.

[luisbe]

C'mon! While you're right that some of the runners looked like obvious toss-outs, one of those was the frickin' #2 in the last leg. That horse looked hopeless. I see how you added him in your ticket.

Give me a break.

But he didn't win. We all know that losing by an inch or by the length of the stretch is the same.

[Stillriledup]

C'mon! While you're right that some of the runners looked like obvious toss-outs, one of those was the frickin' #2 in the last leg. That horse looked hopeless. I see how you added him in your ticket.

Give me a break.

I'm just tossing the 0 pct no hopers. While the 2 certainly wasn't the most likely winner, he didn't have 0 chance. I bet ON that horse more than i don't bet him. I had that horse last time he won, win bet and exa, bet him the race before that when he was up the track and i bet him off his race 3 back, with the 66 Beyer, he was totally full of run in there and does his best racing with Iggy. Not likely he was going to win, but if you are spending 1,000 and your idea is to single the 7 in leg 4 and use as many horses as possible, he would have been a horse to throw in.

On 2nd look, the 1 in leg 5 might have had a very small chance, so even if you include him too, you still have to toss the 1 in leg 1 and the 3 in leg 2 to save money.

[cj]

Personally, I wouldn't consider playing a bunch of ALLs and not getting lucky a bad beat. JMHO.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Why not just dump the $1568 on Metaboss for the win and forget the rest? If the dividend holds up he wins around $1254 and gets back his $1568. If the dividend drops to 0.70-1 he still wins $1097 or so

[WJ47]

I would never consider playing a ticket like this. I even managed to find some hopeless throw outs, however I singled the #6 in the first leg and got knocked out right away.

I'm glad you posted this though because I had a real bad day at the races today. I had a late pick 4 ticket written down that I didn't get in because my 24 year old daughter called me with a terrible crisis and I lost track of time.

The crisis: She adopted a cat from the shelter yesterday and now she doesn't feel she can handle the responsibility of caring for a cat. Are you kidding me? She's got a college degree and a full-time job and she can't take care of a cat? And it's an older cat, not a rambunctious kitten. I don't get it. I have a cat. My cat requires almost no care. I give her food and water and scoop her litter box.

I thought, "It'll probably lose anyway." Of course, as always happens to me when I miss getting a bet in, it won and paid good.

When my daughter called later to whine again about the horrendous burden of being a cat owner, I thought I'd lose my mind. I told her she'd better not call me during my racing time again unless it was a dire emergency.

So, anyway, after I saw this guy's ticket, I felt a lot better. Someone who had a worse day than me!

I actually had a couple bucks to win on the 2 horse in that race, for no other reason than Iggy was riding him. :) I thought I had it! I didn't realize that Iggy dropped the whip.

[v j stauffer]

Honestly, it was a horrendous wager, there were horses who could have been tossed out and the only race he singled was the toughest of them all on paper. The 1 in the first race had 0 chance as did the 3 in Leg 2 and the 1 in leg 5. A better bet (assuming a similar ticket structure) would have been:

2345678 w 1245678 w A w 7 w 234567 that would have only cost 1,029. Throwing 33% of your ticket cost on horses with 0 chance isn't very smart business, that will get you to the poor house a lot quicker.

Every time I read one of your posts I find myself thinking of and longing for the exact same thing.

An oversize Ice Pick I can use to thrust into my own Cornea. :bang:

Guy takes a brutal beat and all you can do is nag about the construction of the ticket? :bang: :bang: :mad: :bang: :bang:

Have you ever actually been to the track?

[Stillriledup]

Every time I read one of your posts I find myself thinking of and longing for the exact same thing.

An oversize Ice Pick I can use to thrust into my own Cornea. :bang:

Guy takes a brutal beat and all you can do is nag about the construction of the ticket? :bang: :bang: :mad: :bang: :bang:

Have you ever actually been to the track?

I have to admit, i lied to you and i humbly apologize.

In the "worst announcer tampa" thread in post 780, i told you that you could call me Mr 10 and 2.

I lied. Its Mr 12 and 2. ;)

[Some_One]

Have you ever actually been to the track?

I doubt it, you don't get to 17K posts (93.56% of which are negative in someway) by going to the race track or playing any actual races. This is a full time gig

[davew]

I hate being results orientated and have to say (even though they lost half the amount wagered) this was a very ballsy bet, that could have taken down the entire pool. :ThmbUp:

[Some_One]

I hate being results orientated and have to say (even though they lost half the amount wagered) this was a very ballsy bet, that could have taken down the entire pool. :ThmbUp:

It was slots-like gambling, betting and hoping chaos is on your side on the day.

[1st time lasix]

on the other hand....a $710 payout from a pick five is pretty good if you only spent around 32 on the wager! Singled in leg 4 and 5. Only two legs of the five didn't have the chalk ....and both of those were easily findable. Leg one and leg three. In real time i truly thought the favorite lost that last leg....tough beat! Having experienced many of those....I feel his pain!

[Track Phantom]

I hate being results orientated and have to say (even though they lost half the amount wagered) this was a very ballsy bet, that could have taken down the entire pool. :ThmbUp:

It's interesting. The guy who took down the GP Pick 6 6 months ago went all in 5 legs and, I think, 2 deep in one race. He was playing for chaos and won 6M.

This guy, despite my attempts to back him off of it, had no issue with doing it. He said he was going to Vegas this week and needed "some seed money". I had some email exchange with him afterwards and he took it in stride.

All in all, I think the idea of narrowing a hopeless horse here or there to bring a ticket from 1500 down to, say 1200, or 1000, is silly. If you're going to go in with a bet like this AND you can afford to do it without an issue, you'd be much, much, much more upset if you left 2 or 3 horses out of an entire sequence and one of them won and it cost you 50k.

I think he played it right if his strategy was to harness chaos in his favor.

(By the way, Destino would have been one of the horses I would have narrowed out of the sequence, same as everyone else except redboard extraordinaire, SRU).

[castaway01]

It's interesting. The guy who took down the GP Pick 6 6 months ago went all in 5 legs and, I think, 2 deep in one race. He was playing for chaos and won 6M.

This guy, despite my attempts to back him off of it, had no issue with doing it. He said he was going to Vegas this week and needed "some seed money". I had some email exchange with him afterwards and he took it in stride.

All in all, I think the idea of narrowing a hopeless horse here or there to bring a ticket from 1500 down to, say 1200, or 1000, is silly. If you're going to go in with a bet like this AND you can afford to do it without an issue, you'd be much, much, much more upset if you left 2 or 3 horses out of an entire sequence and one of them won and it cost you 50k.

I think he played it right if his strategy was to harness chaos in his favor.

(By the way, Destino would have been one of the horses I would have narrowed out of the sequence, same as everyone else except redboard extraordinaire, SRU).

Well, that GP bet was also a situation where you HAD to be the only winner to hit the bet, so there was no point in playing it if you didn't put in the longshots. The late Dan Borislow, the guy who hit that GP bet, also had the idea that no one would be playing the bet on the next-to-last day of the meet because they were waiting for the last day of the meet, which was correct---and that bet had a carryover, so different ballgame there too.

To me, while you can argue that maybe with four chaos races you could have a day where this bet made sense, over the long run you'll get slaughtered going "All" in four legs. It's a bad bet. But then when you're actually alive in the last leg and you lose $30,000 by a nose, that's a bad beat. So to me, it's both a bad beat and a bad bet. Bad all around.

[andtheyreoff]

I have to admit, i lied to you and i humbly apologize.

In the "worst announcer tampa" thread in post 780, i told you that you could call me Mr 10 and 2.

I lied. Its Mr 12 and 2. ;)

I think we should have a handicapping contest on here: SRU versus a chicken randomly pecking at numbers on paper.

Something tells me the chicken would win pretty easily.

[DeltaLover]

This ticket structure is not as bad as it looks from a first glance.

Although I never use all, I still can understand the underlined way of thinking and can see how this approach can potentially lead to a huge score.

[zico20]

I happen to agree that this was a horrible bet. To key the big favorite and hope for long shots in the other four races makes no sense. It was like the guy did no handicapping for the pick 5. I could understand this bet IF he was keying a 20-1 that he had inside info that the horse would win. Then he would have pretty much turned a profit even with a couple of chalks. But keying a favorite baffles me. With that said, he made another huge mistake, IMO. I assume he has money to burn and this wasn't his last 1500. Why wouldn't you go back and get multiple tickets with the other big favorite and some logical ones in the other races. Say a 4x4x4x1x1. That is 32 bucks and get it five times for only another 160 bucks. This "cover" protects against a couple short price horses. If you are going to bet 1500 you better cover your ass.

[HUSKER55]

you guys and gals are a tough crowd. man puts his money where his mouth is and gets beat by less than a quarter step and you call it a stupid bet?

OWEEEE

[dilanesp]

Every time I read one of your posts I find myself thinking of and longing for the exact same thing.

An oversize Ice Pick I can use to thrust into my own Cornea. :bang:

Guy takes a brutal beat and all you can do is nag about the construction of the ticket? :bang: :bang: :mad: :bang: :bang:

Have you ever actually been to the track?

I've been to the track. And it's not the same without your voice wafting over the grounds.

[ArlJim78]

you guys and gals are a tough crowd. man puts his money where his mouth is and gets beat by less than a quarter step and you call it a stupid bet?

OWEEEE
The point is he didn't get beat. He won.
If you cash your ticket and lose money it's not a bad beat.

[TucsonGreyhound]

To me, while you can argue that maybe with four chaos races you could have a day where this bet made sense, over the long run you'll get slaughtered going "All" in four legs. It's a bad bet.

Do the posters ridiculing the guy for his large coverage realize there was nearly $100,000 more in carryover money than takeout money for the Pick5 yesterday? The track was paying out $1.04 for every $1 bet into the pool.

Sure, he could have increased his edge even more by sharpening his ticket. But over the long run, even with his 4 alls and one astute single, I would figure he would be breaking even at a minimum.

[dilanesp]

The point is he didn't get beat. He won.
If you cash your ticket and lose money it's not a bad beat.

That's not necessarily true.

Consider the following situation (inspired by a plot point in "The Sting").

It's Santa Anita Handicap day, 1950. Calumet Farm has one of the greatest 3 horse entries in racing history, Triple Crown winner Citation, Hall of Fame racemare Two Lea, and Derby winner Ponder. You have figured out, however, that C.S. Howard's Noor, at 6 to 1, is going to beat them. But you have to work that day and you have no way to get out to the track.

So you give $5000 to your wife, who knows nothing about the racetrack. You send her out there and you tell her to "place it all on Noor".

You listen to the radio that day and are excited to hear Noor win the race. He pays $14.20 to win. You eagerly await your wife coming home from the track with $35,500.

She comes home and says "here you are" and gives you $5250.

She bet Noor to place. The entry came in 2-3-4. Noor paid $14.20, $2.10, and $2.10.

[Poindexter]

Do the posters ridiculing the guy for his large coverage realize there was nearly $100,000 more in carryover money than takeout money for the Pick5 yesterday? The track was paying out $1.04 for every $1 bet into the pool.

Sure, he could have increased his edge even more by sharpening his ticket. But over the long run, even with his 4 alls and one astute single, I would figure he would be breaking even at a minimum.

I agree. It was a very solid play.SRU mentioned 3 horses to throw out(only the first 2 were tosses IMO-however I do agree with SRU's point that if there are horses that look like it is impossible for them to get there it is probably a waste of money to use them, BUT, for some spending an extra $300 or $400 to possibly get back the pool makes sense). they were fairly short fields and he was able to lock it up with what turned out to be a solid single(won like a solid single should-though a major contender pulling up did not hurt his chances). Had Destino got up it would he would have got back over $30 K, and add one other price horse in either the 2nd or 3rd and not telling how big a score he gets.Also, the sequence came out a lot chalkier than it looked on paper.

[Stillriledup]

I think we should have a handicapping contest on here: SRU versus a chicken randomly pecking at numbers on paper.

Something tells me the chicken would win pretty easily.

Only if the Chicken can go 13-1 or 14-0. ;)

[Stillriledup]

It's interesting. The guy who took down the GP Pick 6 6 months ago went all in 5 legs and, I think, 2 deep in one race. He was playing for chaos and won 6M.

This guy, despite my attempts to back him off of it, had no issue with doing it. He said he was going to Vegas this week and needed "some seed money". I had some email exchange with him afterwards and he took it in stride.

All in all, I think the idea of narrowing a hopeless horse here or there to bring a ticket from 1500 down to, say 1200, or 1000, is silly. If you're going to go in with a bet like this AND you can afford to do it without an issue, you'd be much, much, much more upset if you left 2 or 3 horses out of an entire sequence and one of them won and it cost you 50k.

I think he played it right if his strategy was to harness chaos in his favor.

(By the way, Destino would have been one of the horses I would have narrowed out of the sequence, same as everyone else except redboard extraordinaire, SRU).

Redboard? I didn't bet on Destino and didn't include him in my pick 5s at all, how am i redboarding?

As far as a person betting 1500 into a ticket, you think its silly to try and whittle the ticket down to 1200 or 1000 by excluding horses with 001 percent chance to win? You think spending 300 or 400 on a .001 percent horse is "ok?

[elhelmete]

All in all, I think the idea of narrowing a hopeless horse here or there to bring a ticket from 1500 down to, say 1200, or 1000, is silly. If you're going to go in with a bet like this AND you can afford to do it without an issue, you'd be much, much, much more upset if you left 2 or 3 horses out of an entire sequence and one of them won and it cost you 50k.

I think he played it right if his strategy was to harness chaos in his favor.


I tend to agree.

Field sizes were 8/8/7/11/7. He singled in the race with 11 runners.

WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE LOGIC BEHIND HIS BET (catching chaos) I would not feel confident considering one horse a no-chance in a 7 horse field.

[Stillriledup]

I tend to agree.

Field sizes were 8/8/7/11/7. He singled in the race with 11 runners.

WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE LOGIC BEHIND HIS BET (catching chaos) I would not feel confident considering one horse a no-chance in a 7 horse field.

If you are looking for chaos, why single the favorite in the 4th leg? Isnt' that the race you want to catch lightning?

[Track Phantom]

I can tell that the "handicappers" like myself, have a hard time throwing caution to the wind and connecting when their opinion is dead wrong. There is an element in there that if you're not "narrowing" then you're not a real player and just basing everything on luck.

I think there is a middle ground here somewhere. I would never spend 1500 on a ticket like that but I do like the idea of narrowing your opinion down to one race. We can all be right once.

I'm starting to think there are two kinds of players (maybe this is obvious to some of you). There are players that want to win big money and not too concerned how and players that just want to be right.

[Stillriledup]

I can tell that the "handicappers" like myself, have a hard time throwing caution to the wind and connecting when their opinion is dead wrong. There is an element in there that if you're not "narrowing" then you're not a real player and just basing everything on luck.

I think there is a middle ground here somewhere. I would never spend 1500 on a ticket like that but I do like the idea of narrowing your opinion down to one race. We can all be right once.

I'm starting to think there are two kinds of players (maybe this is obvious to some of you). There are players that want to win big money and not too concerned how and players that just want to be right.

I agree with a lot of this, its a really fine line between going for the HUGE score and then tossing out huge longshots.

I've found that the best way to get that huge score is to probably single a nice looking longshot in one of the races in a pick 5 or pick 6 and then spread in some other races and try and get lucky with another bomber that comes in.

To me, the key to making that great hit is to get a horse who has between a 1 and 5% chance of victory. I know personally i have a really hard time betting on horses i view to have LESS than a 1 pct chance, i think that's just tossing away money and its more "gambling" than "investing"

If he singled the 1 in leg 2 and used ALL in leg 4 and all in leg 5 and the 2 horse with the big lead went all the way in leg 4 and the 2 got up to win leg 5, he kinda makes a life changing score....so, there was a way to get the monster score in more than 1 different way.

Now, if he believed that the 1 horse in leg 1 and the 3 horse in leg 2 actually had a 1-5 % chance and he believed it with all his heart, than his bet isn't as bad as if he thought they had virtually 0% chance and made the same bet.

You never know when the few hundred you save by throwing the no hopers (the ACTUAL no hopers, not the horses who have a very very small chance) out will come back to be money you need down the line for some other wager.

[tanner12oz]

This may seem nuts but your not going to make a profit if it chalks out so by eliminating the hopeless destino types your also eliminating your chance of the massive score..if your looking for chaos you don't toss the bomb and keep the chalk...this is where you get crazy with the cheese whiz and toss the chalk and keep the hail Mary types

[Track Phantom]

This may seem nuts but your not going to make a profit if it chalks out so by eliminating the hopeless destino types your also eliminating your chance of the massive score..if your looking for chaos you don't toss the bomb and keep the chalk...this is where you get crazy with the cheese whiz and toss the chalk and keep the hail Mary types

100% agree with this. In fact, as opposed to SRU's idea, I think when eliminating runners to keep the cost down, you make a mental pact with yourself that no runner eliminated can be over 10-1 ML. I'd love to see how someone does with this scenario over the long term.

[Stillriledup]

This may seem nuts but your not going to make a profit if it chalks out so by eliminating the hopeless destino types your also eliminating your chance of the massive score..if your looking for chaos you don't toss the bomb and keep the chalk...this is where you get crazy with the cheese whiz and toss the chalk and keep the hail Mary types

I eliminate hopeless horses, but i try and include 1% to 5% types if i can afford it with my structure. There's a fine line on horses who actually can't win and horses who APPEAR that they can't win but in real life have a very small shot. That's what makes this the greatest game.

[dilanesp]

I eliminate hopeless horses, but i try and include 1% to 5% types if i can afford it with my structure. There's a fine line on horses who actually can't win and horses who APPEAR that they can't win but in real life have a very small shot. That's what makes this the greatest game.

This is really kind of the wrong way to look at it-- unless you just want to gamble.

A 5 percent horse must increase the payout by 20-fold to be a value play. A 1 percent horse must increase the payout by 100-fold. If you look at probables on the last race, you will see that very few horses have THAT kind of effect on the payoff. This is because big tickets buy a lot of horses. People play these horses because they don't want to miss getting paid when they are mostly right on the ticket, and because they want to get a bigger payoff. But it's a -EV play.

Instead of focusing on the horse's odds to win the race, start at a different place-- the favorite.

The value in beating favorites in multi-race exotics is going to occur when the favorite, or the favorites, gets/get singled/isolated on enough tickets that the longer priced horses will get overlaid. This tends NOT to happen very often with 5 percent horses, although it can. Where it really happens is with 20 percent horses. Favorite in a race gets singled, and when he gets beat, it eliminates so many tickets that it makes the payoff ten times bigger. In that situation, your use of a 20 percent horse in the race gets you betting value.

The other value scenario is when you can single a horse other people aren't able to single. For instance, suppose you find a 40 percent horse in a turf race where everyone else is spreading. Because everyone is spreading 4 or 5 ways, you are essentially getting 3 or 4 to 1 odds on a 40 percent horse when you single him or her.

[Stillriledup]

This is really kind of the wrong way to look at it-- unless you just want to gamble.

A 5 percent horse must increase the payout by 20-fold to be a value play. A 1 percent horse must increase the payout by 100-fold. If you look at probables on the last race, you will see that very few horses have THAT kind of effect on the payoff. This is because big tickets buy a lot of horses. People play these horses because they don't want to miss getting paid when they are mostly right on the ticket, and because they want to get a bigger payoff. But it's a -EV play.

Instead of focusing on the horse's odds to win the race, start at a different place-- the favorite.

The value in beating favorites in multi-race exotics is going to occur when the favorite, or the favorites, gets/get singled/isolated on enough tickets that the longer priced horses will get overlaid. This tends NOT to happen very often with 5 percent horses, although it can. Where it really happens is with 20 percent horses. Favorite in a race gets singled, and when he gets beat, it eliminates so many tickets that it makes the payoff ten times bigger. In that situation, your use of a 20 percent horse in the race gets you betting value.

The other value scenario is when you can single a horse other people aren't able to single. For instance, suppose you find a 40 percent horse in a turf race where everyone else is spreading. Because everyone is spreading 4 or 5 ways, you are essentially getting 3 or 4 to 1 odds on a 40 percent horse when you single him or her.

This is a great post, and you are right, you don't get as much "separation" on 1-5 percent horses as you should, those horses who have a 1 to 5 percent chance of winning might be used on 7-10 percent of the bets...so, you're paying a "premium" on the extreme bombs with a shot.

And, you're also right that the best value is a bunch of 9 and 11 dollar winners....you get inherent value by getting the 3rd or 4th choice to win, many tickets can only afford 2 deep, so if you beat the top 2, you get tremendous value on that 9 or 11 dollar winner. I've seen it in pick 6s in California.

[v j stauffer]

I've been to the track. And it's not the same without your voice wafting over the grounds.

Sometimes I find myself blindly wafing when I'm driving to work or shopping.

Seriously, thanks for the kind words. While I miss calling. I don't miss it near as much as I thought I would.

Perhaps it's because I'm so immersed in learning to be the best Steward I can be.

[v j stauffer]

I think we should have a handicapping contest on here: SRU versus a chicken randomly pecking at numbers on paper.

Something tells me the chicken would win pretty easily.

I make the number CHICKEN -2200 SRU +1800

Stealing $$$ give me that Clucker for multiple stacks!!

On a very serious note regarding the dynamics of this thread.

On any subject I'm sure we can all agree there are opinions and speculation and there are cold hard irrefutable FACTS.

FACT: SRU is clueless. A guy gets whacked for a big score and he piles on with a bunch of crappola about how the ticket should have structured. Useless.

OPINIONS: Lot's of constructive and great ones from well reasoned and thoughtful handicapping minds. Well done.

ABSOLUTE UNQUESTIONED TIME TESTED FACT: In a multiple race wager. If you use the entire field except one horse. Leave one off the ticket. They don't always win. However 100% of the time they WILL run the race of their life. They are energized. They are emboldened. They WILL make you rue the day you used 8 of 9. That's the way it works!! Every time. :)

[Stillriledup]

I make the number CHICKEN -2200 SRU +1800

Stealing $$$ give me that Clucker for multiple stacks!!

On a very serious note regarding the dynamics of this thread.

On any subject I'm sure we can all agree there are opinions and speculation and there are cold hard irrefutable FACTS.

FACT: SRU is clueless. A guy gets whacked for a big score and he piles on with a bunch of crappola about how the ticket should have structured. Useless.

OPINIONS: Lot's of constructive and great ones from well reasoned and thoughtful handicapping minds. Well done.

ABSOLUTE UNQUESTIONED TIME TESTED FACT: In a multiple race wager. If you use the entire field except one horse. Leave one off the ticket. They don't always win. However 100% of the time they WILL run the race of their life. They are energized. They are emboldened. They WILL make you rue the day you used 8 of 9. That's the way it works!! Every time. :)

You know, i had this long thing typed out and it sounded kind of harsh, so i erased it and i'm going to post this instead, take the high road even after being called names that might or might not hurt my feelings.

I'm sorry that you feel upset that i've called out your colleague and friend on the announcers thread, if i see or hear a mistake, i call it out, much like i would expect people to call me out if i screw up, hopefully i won't get called clueless in every thread from now on, i'm hoping to find a clue at some point, hopefully you can cut me a little slack.

I could throw the 12-2 NBA record up there as proof that i'm not actually clueless, but you might be right, i did release 2 losers, i apologize to my fanbase :D for releasing losers, i'll try better next time.

As far as "piling on" a bettor who took a bad beat, we've all taken massive beats, for huge money, we all have, nobody doesn't feel bad for the guy, but on a message board, what are we going to do, lament and cry spilled milk for someone who isn't even posting here, just a picture of someone's ticket?
I'd rather do something constructive like discuss his ticket structure, sorry you feel its "piling on".

As CJ said, if you play a bunch of alls, he doesnt consider that a bad beat, and i agree, the guy cashed for 700, he got half his money back.....i also hit the pick 5 on a much smaller ticket and if the 2 wires the field in leg 4, i still hit it, and i didn't go "All" in leg 4, i was deep in there, but not all...nobody would cry about my "beat" if i posted that up for consumption so i don't think others are crying about some random ticket of someone who some poster knows, not even a person who posts here at PA.

Thanks for the time tested fact of the one horse you eliminate runs the race of their live 100% of the time, i read what you wrote, consumed it and now i'm smarter for having read it......so Clueless SRU just got a little less clueless thanks to you.

[v j stauffer]

You know, i had this long thing typed out and it sounded kind of harsh, so i erased it and i'm going to post this instead, take the high road even after being called names that might or might not hurt my feelings.

I'm sorry that you feel upset that i've called out your colleague and friend on the announcers thread, if i see or hear a mistake, i call it out, much like i would expect people to call me out if i screw up, hopefully i won't get called clueless in every thread from now on, i'm hoping to find a clue at some point, hopefully you can cut me a little slack.

I could throw the 12-2 NBA record up there as proof that i'm not actually clueless, but you might be right, i did release 2 losers, i apologize to my fanbase :D for releasing losers, i'll try better next time.

As far as "piling on" a bettor who took a bad beat, we've all taken massive beats, for huge money, we all have, nobody doesn't feel bad for the guy, but on a message board, what are we going to do, lament and cry spilled milk for someone who isn't even posting here, just a picture of someone's ticket?
I'd rather do something constructive like discuss his ticket structure, sorry you feel its "piling on".

As CJ said, if you play a bunch of alls, he doesnt consider that a bad beat, and i agree, the guy cashed for 700, he got half his money back.....i also hit the pick 5 on a much smaller ticket and if the 2 wires the field in leg 4, i still hit it, and i didn't go "All" in leg 4, i was deep in there, but not all...nobody would cry about my "beat" if i posted that up for consumption so i don't think others are crying about some random ticket of someone who some poster knows, not even a person who posts here at PA.

Thanks for the time tested fact of the one horse you eliminate runs the race of their live 100% of the time, i read what you wrote, consumed it and now i'm smarter for having read it......so Clueless SRU just got a little less clueless thanks to you.

My pleasure. Always happy to help.

[TucsonGreyhound]

nobody would cry about my "beat" if i posted that up for consumption so i don't think others are crying about some random ticket of someone who some poster knows, not even a person who posts here at PA

SRU maybe you should stop whining about the attention a poster is getting for discussing the merits of a winning ticket in a $2.4 million pool at Santa Anita and get back to work on yet another diatribe exposing the TRAVESTY result of a stewards inquiry into a $5,000 claiming race or how some announcer had a HORRIFIC call of the 2nd race at Sunland Park that ruined your Tuesday afternoon.

[Stillriledup]

SRU maybe you should stop whining about the attention a poster is getting for discussing the merits of a winning ticket in a $2.4 million pool at Santa Anita and get back to work on yet another diatribe exposing the TRAVESTY result of a stewards inquiry into a $5,000 claiming race or how some announcer had a HORRIFIC call of the 2nd race at Sunland Park that ruined your Tuesday afternoon.

Oh cmon, you aren't following the context of this discussion, go read the entire thread carefully and get back to me in a few weeks when you figure it out.

[PaceAdvantage]

SRU, when a guy like Vic starts calling you out, you know your stock is dropping. Suddenly, it's not just the usual suspects painting you with disdain.

Perhaps a little restraint is in order going forward...as in...don't feel it necessary that you have an opinion on almost every horse racing post made here... :lol: :lol:

[thaskalos]

You know, i had this long thing typed out and it sounded kind of harsh, so i erased it and i'm going to post this instead, take the high road even after being called names that might or might not hurt my feelings.

I'm sorry that you feel upset that i've called out your colleague and friend on the announcers thread, if i see or hear a mistake, i call it out, much like i would expect people to call me out if i screw up, hopefully i won't get called clueless in every thread from now on, i'm hoping to find a clue at some point, hopefully you can cut me a little slack.

I could throw the 12-2 NBA record up there as proof that i'm not actually clueless, but you might be right, i did release 2 losers, i apologize to my fanbase :D for releasing losers, i'll try better next time.

As far as "piling on" a bettor who took a bad beat, we've all taken massive beats, for huge money, we all have, nobody doesn't feel bad for the guy, but on a message board, what are we going to do, lament and cry spilled milk for someone who isn't even posting here, just a picture of someone's ticket?
I'd rather do something constructive like discuss his ticket structure, sorry you feel its "piling on".

As CJ said, if you play a bunch of alls, he doesnt consider that a bad beat, and i agree, the guy cashed for 700, he got half his money back.....i also hit the pick 5 on a much smaller ticket and if the 2 wires the field in leg 4, i still hit it, and i didn't go "All" in leg 4, i was deep in there, but not all...nobody would cry about my "beat" if i posted that up for consumption so i don't think others are crying about some random ticket of someone who some poster knows, not even a person who posts here at PA.

Thanks for the time tested fact of the one horse you eliminate runs the race of their live 100% of the time, i read what you wrote, consumed it and now i'm smarter for having read it......so Clueless SRU just got a little less clueless thanks to you.

SRU...if it's any consolation, I think you were absolutely right to criticize the construction of that ticket. It's one thing to take a stab like that as a lark, because you are heading for Vegas and could use the extra money...but to do it on a regular basis is financial suicide.

We judge plays by their MERIT here...not by how close they came to cashing.

[Prairie Bettor]

One question I have about "All" races in general, not necessarily the original poster's ticket, but just in general.

If you think the race is so difficult that you must go "All", if you did want to get cheaper and throw a horse out, shouldn't you throw the favorite out?

I'm just thinking if you go "All" and the favorite wins you are way behind in your ticket anyways that you may have well just lost. I don't know as I don't really play the big ticket P5's

[thaskalos]

SRU, when a guy like Vic starts calling you out, you know your stock is dropping. Suddenly, it's not just the usual suspects painting you with disdain.

Perhaps a little restraint is in order going forward...as in...don't feel it necessary that you have an opinion on almost every horse racing post made here... :lol: :lol:
If Vic had any balls...then he would have called out OTM Al and Cj as well...since they too pointed out that this was hardly a "bad beat". OTM Al also rightly categorized this ticket for what it REALLY was: a BAD BET! But no...Vic chose instead to call out only SRU...because he is the convenient target. Bush-league...IMO. :ThmbDown:

[Stillriledup]

SRU, when a guy like Vic starts calling you out, you know your stock is dropping. Suddenly, it's not just the usual suspects painting you with disdain.

Perhaps a little restraint is in order going forward...as in...don't feel it necessary that you have an opinion on almost every horse racing post made here... :lol: :lol:

A guy like Vic? I almost spit my cheerios and milk all over the place! Making jokes like this can be messy!

Vic is "calling me out" because he's butthurt that i dare criticize announcers when they make a mistake. That's all it is, nothing more.


My stock is as high as ever (yes,12 is higher than 2 for those who aren't math Whizzes). PA has an ignore feature, so anyone who thinks i "post too much" can put me on ignore and you can show them how if they're not computer savvy enough, so the "posting in every thread" excuse to me is just a bunch of baloney.

[dilanesp]

One question I have about "All" races in general, not necessarily the original poster's ticket, but just in general.

If you think the race is so difficult that you must go "All", if you did want to get cheaper and throw a horse out, shouldn't you throw the favorite out?

I'm just thinking if you go "All" and the favorite wins you are way behind in your ticket anyways that you may have well just lost. I don't know as I don't really play the big ticket P5's

My perspective is different. "All" is basically almost never a good bet. One of two things is true when you click "all":

1. You have no idea whatsoever what horse or horses to pick in that position on the ticket.

OR

2. You have an opinion, but it's likely not to be a particularly good payoff, so you are hoping to go bombs away with some longshot whom you didn't pick and didn't handicap.

If it's 1, 90 percent of the time, there's another betting option. If you go all on the bottom of a superfecta, play the trifecta. If you go all on the bottom of a trifecta, play the exacta. If you go all on the first leg of a pick 3, play the double of the last two races.

Most of the time, you make more money doing this anyway. It's only occasionally that some huge bombs away longshot comes in making the "all" bet more profitable.

If it's 2, you are just gambling. Sometimes, your opinion isn't worth much. If you like 2 favorites in the daily double, you should look at the probables, determine if you think you are getting good enough odds, and bet or pass it. Don't go 1/2/all on a pick 3 ticket just hoping some stupid result comes in for the 3rd leg.

In rare situations, you will be in scenario 1 and have no alternative bet. E.g., you have good plays for 5 of the 6 legs of the pick 6, but there's a grab-bag maiden turf race in there where none of the horses have ever run on the grass or shown anything on the dirt. So you check the all box. Fine.

But try to avoid "all" whenever you can. It's almost never +EV.

[PaceAdvantage]

If Vic had any balls...then he would have called out OTM Al and Cj as well...since they too pointed out that this was hardly a "bad beat". OTM Al also rightly categorized this ticket for what it REALLY was: a BAD BET! But no...Vic chose instead to call out only SRU...because he is the convenient target. Bush-league...IMO. :ThmbDown:And why is he a convenient target?

Answer that, and you have the reason why Vic called out SRU and not cj or OTM Al.

Or are you going to accuse Vic of having an east-coast NYRA bias... :lol: :lol:

[wiffleball whizz]

Off topic I guess but when I hit the all button and get $10.60 I'm doing cartwheels.....

Coming back out of 4 month racing hiatus fri or sat.....haven't had urge since car accident

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, let me amend. Posting in every thread would be much cooler if you actually were posting something worth reading in every thread.

When your gems are few and far between, it gets to be a bit much.

[Track Phantom]

SRU...if it's any consolation, I think you were absolutely right to criticize the construction of that ticket. It's one thing to take a stab like that as a lark, because you are heading for Vegas and could use the extra money...but to do it on a regular basis is financial suicide.

We judge plays by their MERIT here...not by how close they came to cashing.

I'm on the fence whether I agree with you or not. My philosophy is to bet small-ish and try to cash big. $72 ticket with some crazy players in the sequence so you give yourself on out for big money.

Having said that, what if this dude used the same strategy on Saturday at Santa Anita with all of those crazy bombs that NO ONE could find? He might have been sitting here with $396,000.

I think it is a tad presumptuous to tell someone how to "invest" their money. You're probably right but I've seen way too many crazy things happen and, let's face it, the people cashing the 6 or 7 figure tickets are not those that I would call expert handicappers.

[thaskalos]

And why is he a convenient target?

Answer that, and you have the reason why Vic called out SRU and not cj or OTM Al.

Or are you going to accuse Vic of having an east-coast NYRA bias... :lol: :lol:

There IS no reason to pick only on SRU in this thread. OTM Al's post right before SRU's was easily as critical of that ticket as SRU's post was. But no...according to Vic...SRU's opinion was "useless"...while the rest of the opinions were "constructive", "well-reasoned", and "thoughtful".

So, I ask:

Is it the OPINION that counts...or the person who voices it?

[Stillriledup]

And why is he a convenient target?

Answer that, and you have the reason why Vic called out SRU and not cj or OTM Al.

Or are you going to accuse Vic of having an east-coast NYRA bias... :lol: :lol:

Vic's upset because of my critical nature of announcers when they make a mistake. Nothing less, nothing more. Go back into the history and look at every exchange between me and Vic, most of it has been cordial, i've been one of his biggest supporters here and have had nothing but nice things to say about him over the years, its all there in black and white if you want to spend a few decades digging for all those posts. :D I like Vic a lot and will continue to like him, i think he's a great announcer and a pretty good guy, i understand his frustration on the annoucers thing, he asked me one time if i wouldn't mind taking it easy on announcers and i said i would, and i did for a while, i bit my tongue many an occasion, but i just couldn't help myself and decided to start calling them out again. There was a call the other day by a prominent announcer that i was DYING to criticize, but i didnt, bit my tongue and released an NBA winner instead, so maybe i'm learning. ;)

I could point an announcers flub and i'm not the only person who does it by a longshot, the tampa announcer thread was started by CJ and has 55000 views, so its a topic people want to discuss and are very interested in hearing about. I try really hard to not call out announcers for no reason, if an announcer makes a mistake i feel worthy to mention, i'll mention it.

[thaskalos]

I'm on the fence whether I agree with you or not. My philosophy is to bet small-ish and try to cash big. $72 ticket with some crazy players in the sequence so you give yourself on out for big money.

Having said that, what if this dude used the same strategy on Saturday at Santa Anita with all of those crazy bombs that NO ONE could find? He might have been sitting here with $396,000.

I think it is a tad presumptuous to tell someone how to "invest" their money. You're probably right but I've seen way too many crazy things happen and, let's face it, the people cashing the 6 or 7 figure tickets are not those that I would call expert handicappers.
I an not telling ANYBODY how to invest their money. You used this ticket to start a brand new thread...so I am assuming that you are looking for opinions from the posters here. So...here is MY opinion:

It was a HORRENDOUS play...and the worst thing about this play is that it came so close to cashing big. Because by coming so close to cashing...it will encourage this guy to make this play again, since he will feel that he was deprived of a pretty good score only by "bad luck".

[Stillriledup]

Off topic I guess but when I hit the all button and get $10.60 I'm doing cartwheels.....

Coming back out of 4 month racing hiatus fri or sat.....haven't had urge since car accident

Whizzzer we miss you man. You are an amazing bright spot here at PA, hope all is going to be ok.

I know your point about the 10 dollar winner, i was very deep into the race where the "Awful beat guy' singled a 4-5 shot, and i had a 22-1 shot with a 200 length lead turning for home and got nailed, not to mention the 4-5 shot crashed into me in the stretch......that would have been a cartwheel situation for me for sure if that overbet favorite didn't rush by at the end.

[PaceAdvantage]

So, I ask:

Is it the OPINION that counts...or the person who voices it?Both.

[PaceAdvantage]

Vic's upset because of my critical nature of announcers when they make a mistake. Nothing less, nothing more. Case in point...how many times are you going to repeat the same thing?

[PaceAdvantage]

Go back into the history and look at every exchange between me and Vic, most of it has been cordial, i've been one of his biggest supporters here and have had nothing but nice things to say about him over the years, its all there in black and white if you want to spend a few decades digging for all those posts.And that's exactly why I wrote your stock is dropping (HARD) if VIC is now on your case...

[Track Phantom]

I an not telling ANYBODY how to invest their money. You used this ticket to start a brand new thread...so I am assuming that you are looking for opinions from the posters here. So...here is MY opinion:

It was a HORRENDOUS play...and the worst thing about this play is that it came so close to cashing big. Because by coming so close to cashing...it will encourage this guy to make this play again, since he will feel that he was deprived of a pretty good score only by "bad luck".

So, what are you trying to say :)

[Stillriledup]

Case in point...how many times are you going to repeat the same thing?

The same amount of times that you repeat that my stock is dropping because Vic says so. :(

[PaceAdvantage]

The same amount of times that you repeat that my stock is dropping because Vic says so. :(Yup, because that's the what I do...post multiple times week after week that your stock is dropping because of Vic... :lol:

[zico20]

My perspective is different. "All" is basically almost never a good bet. One of two things is true when you click "all":

1. You have no idea whatsoever what horse or horses to pick in that position on the ticket.

OR

2. You have an opinion, but it's likely not to be a particularly good payoff, so you are hoping to go bombs away with some longshot whom you didn't pick and didn't handicap.

If it's 1, 90 percent of the time, there's another betting option. If you go all on the bottom of a superfecta, play the trifecta. If you go all on the bottom of a trifecta, play the exacta. If you go all on the first leg of a pick 3, play the double of the last two races.

Most of the time, you make more money doing this anyway. It's only occasionally that some huge bombs away longshot comes in making the "all" bet more profitable.

If it's 2, you are just gambling. Sometimes, your opinion isn't worth much. If you like 2 favorites in the daily double, you should look at the probables, determine if you think you are getting good enough odds, and bet or pass it. Don't go 1/2/all on a pick 3 ticket just hoping some stupid result comes in for the 3rd leg.

In rare situations, you will be in scenario 1 and have no alternative bet. E.g., you have good plays for 5 of the 6 legs of the pick 6, but there's a grab-bag maiden turf race in there where none of the horses have ever run on the grass or shown anything on the dirt. So you check the all box. Fine.

But try to avoid "all" whenever you can. It's almost never +EV.

Excellent post. I agree completely. Hope other people adhere to your advice. Going all in almost every circumstance is not the smart thing to do. Especially in supers and tris. They should be avoided in every situation.

[Track Phantom]

Yup, because that's the what I do...post multiple times week after week that your stock is dropping because of Vic... :lol:

While I don't agree with SRU (often) and think there are way too many times he is being negative about something insignificant, why would you bash him here? The guy does post a lot on YOUR message board. Isn't that the point? Would you rather have a bunch of periodic posters and crickets most days? I would be more inclined to appreciate his participation.

[Dark Horse]

Loved the unique stretch run between The Wife Knows Everything and The Wife Doesn't Know, but the finish between Close and No Cigar is all too common. The picture suggests a nostril between 50 cents or $20 return on the dollar. Happens every day.

[PaceAdvantage]

While I don't agree with SRU (often) and think there are way too many times he is being negative about something insignificant, why would you bash him here? The guy does post a lot on YOUR message board. Isn't that the point? Would you rather have a bunch of periodic posters and crickets most days? I would be more inclined to appreciate his participation.I bash him because he deserves to be bashed. That's how I roll. Always have.

I could hire a bunch of monkeys to sit at keyboards and press buttons then hit SUBMIT REPLY. That's basically what you're saying would be good for my board. As long as people are posting. It doesn't matter what they post, if they post the same stuff over and over again, if lots of other people don't care for him and find him distracting from an otherwise quality thread...

You know, stuff like that...quality control...part of my job too.

If he DRIVES OFF other valuable contributors with his constant negativity and CONSTANT need to participate EVERYWHERE no matter if he's actually typing something of value or not, is that a GOOD THING?

I say it isn't.

[Track Phantom]

I bash him because he deserves to be bashed. That's how I roll. Always have.

I could hire a bunch of monkeys to sit at keyboards and press buttons then hit SUBMIT REPLY. That's basically what you're saying would be good for my board. As long as people are posting. It doesn't matter what they post, if they post the same stuff over and over again, if lots of other people don't care for him and find him distracting from an otherwise quality thread...

You know, stuff like that...quality control...part of my job too.

If he DRIVES OFF a bunch of other otherwise valuable contributors with his constant negativity and CONSTANT need to particpate EVERYWHERE no matter if he's actually typing something of value or not, is that a GOOD THING?

I say it isn't.

It's your board and we all appreciate the opportunity to share thoughts here. I don't think he's all that bad. There are others here far more negative and far more spiteful that I would boot before this guy. But, it's not my world so what do I know.

[thaskalos]

It's your board and we all appreciate the opportunity to share thoughts here. I don't think he's all that bad. There are others here far more negative and far more spiteful that I would boot before this guy. But, it's not my world so what do I know.

Yeah...but this is not your board.

[Stillriledup]

I bash him because he deserves to be bashed. That's how I roll. Always have.

I could hire a bunch of monkeys to sit at keyboards and press buttons then hit SUBMIT REPLY. That's basically what you're saying would be good for my board. As long as people are posting. It doesn't matter what they post, if they post the same stuff over and over again, if lots of other people don't care for him and find him distracting from an otherwise quality thread...

You know, stuff like that...quality control...part of my job too.

If he DRIVES OFF a bunch of other otherwise valuable contributors with his constant negativity and CONSTANT need to particpate EVERYWHERE no matter if he's actually typing something of value or not, is that a GOOD THING?

I say it isn't.

Why would i drive anyone off if they can just put me on ignore?

"As long as people are posting"

You have to be kidding me, there are hours and blocks of hours where there isnt ONE post on this entire board. Nobody is here, nobody is posting anything, this place is a morgue.

People trip over their cat at 6am running to their laptop to see what SRU said the night before, so to suggest that i "Drive people off" is comical.

"Distracting from an otherwise quality thread".

Many of those "quality threads" were started by me. Go check views and replies, you'll see SRU started most of that and created healthy debate and interest.

Yes, quality thread....because Andy Serling yelling "liar" in 3 consecutive posts is SUCH quality...the only reason i don't have Serling on ignore is for the entertainment value, he rarely adds anything of substance here, 99% of his posts are negative and he doesn't even do it while adhering to the TOS, most of his posts start flame wars and lots of angry and bitter feelings but i'm the bad guy? :D

If i was on ignore from all the posters who supposedly think i'm "ruining the board" none of this would even be being discussed.

I'm currently 12-2 in NBA picks on this board (really 14-2 but that's another discussion for another day) with specific writeups and nobody has said a boo. Not you or anyone has said good picking, thanks for the positive and valuable contribution, all i get is grief, while a guy like Serling craps on the NYRA ADW thread, posts are angry and hateful and contributed nothing, my head hurt reading that gibberish and nobody says a word about that its all about SRU and how bad of a guy HE is.

[Track Phantom]

Why would i drive anyone off if they can just put me on ignore?

"As long as people are posting"

You have to be kidding me, there are hours and blocks of hours where there isnt ONE post on this entire board. Nobody is here, nobody is posting anything, this place is a morgue.

People trip over their cat at 6am running to their laptop to see what SRU said the night before, so to suggest that i "Drive people off" is comical.

"Distracting from an otherwise quality thread".

Many of those "quality threads" were started by me. Go check views and replies, you'll see SRU started most of that and created healthy debate and interest.

Yes, quality thread....because Andy Serling yelling "liar" in 3 consecutive posts is SUCH quality...the only reason i don't have Serling on ignore is for the entertainment value, he rarely adds anything of substance here, 99% of his posts are negative and he doesn't even do it while adhering to the TOS, most of his posts start flame wars and lots of angry and bitter feelings but i'm the bad guy? :D

If i was on ignore from all the posters who supposedly think i'm "ruining the board" none of this would even be being discussed.

I'm currently 12-2 in NBA picks on this board (really 14-2 but that's another discussion for another day) with specific writeups and nobody has said a boo. Not you or anyone has said good picking, thanks for the positive and valuable contribution, all i get is grief, while a guy like Serling craps on the NYRA ADW thread, posts are angry and hateful and contributed nothing, my head hurt reading that gibberish and nobody says a word about that its all about SRU and how bad of a guy HE is.

I think you let this stuff get to you too much. I think your posts are just fine and on a few occasions, you "riled me up" enough to respond.

Regarding Andy Serling, I think he's one of the best at what he does, maybe THE best, but everything I've ever seen or heard from him makes me think he'd be a tough guy to appreciate in the flesh. I'll reserve judgement until I do meet him someday as I've been wrong on that kind of thing many times.

All in all, it's tough to get a real good idea of who is behind these postings. We all have a bad day when we want to vent and write something here that we probably wish we hadn't. Reading between the lines I think there are top quality people here and some vultures, too.

[Dark Horse]

And that's exactly why I wrote your stock is dropping (HARD) if VIC is now on your case...

Vic responded to the thread with emotion. It is part of what makes him such a great race caller. My favorite caller, in fact. He makes moments like Paynter crossing the wire in his return from 'death' absolutely unforgettable. If horse racing had its proper spot within the scheme of things he'd be touching the hearts of millions of Americans every weekend. But while giving credit where it's due, we can also appreciate that the emotional approach differs from the clinical approach of a good horse player. I love Vic for what he's done for racing and hopefully will do again, but the emotional swings of betting may not be his cup of tea. So in this particular thread his voice does not provide extra weight.

I don't quite understand the tango between Vic and SRU, but it's certainly not a dance for one.

[Oracle]

Entertaining thread. It seems the author of the ticket agreed that this wasn't a great play but he was willing to gamble on chaos.

Any given "bad bet" can still win big in isolation. Not sure if he does this regularly but at least he got his money in under a positive expectation scenario with all the carry over money.

I'm in agreement with those who say this wouldn't work well in the long run.

[Stillriledup]

Entertaining thread. It seems the author of the ticket agreed that this wasn't a great play but he was willing to gamble on chaos.

Any given "bad bet" can still win big in isolation. Not sure if he does this regularly but at least he got his money in under a positive expectation scenario with all the carry over money.

I'm in agreement with those who say this wouldn't work well in the long run.

It was controlled chaos since he singled a 4-5 shot that everyone else in the world was singling as well as the other 4 legs being short fields. If his single wins, its not likely that this sequence was going to pay big, it was a perfect storm that he was even on the wire for 30k to begin with.

You can say that while it was a tough beat to lose that photo, it was a "Great win" that the 5-1 shot in the gate next to this horse never came out of the gate. If the 3 comes out of the gate like a normal horse, the 2 might not have had that great rail run...so, "bad beats" sometimes need "great wins" in order to even be close to hitting.

[Track Phantom]

It was controlled chaos since he singled a 4-5 shot that everyone else in the world was singling as well as the other 4 legs being short fields. If his single wins, its not likely that this sequence was going to pay big, it was a perfect storm that he was even on the wire for 30k to begin with.

You can say that while it was a tough beat to lose that photo, it was a "Great win" that the 5-1 shot in the gate next to this horse never came out of the gate. If the 3 comes out of the gate like a normal horse, the 2 might not have had that great rail run...so, "bad beats" sometimes need "great wins" in order to even be close to hitting.

Gibberish. This is silly nonsense. The guy was a nostril from 32,000. He was hoping for a perfect storm and he basically got it but was unlucky in the photo.

The 3 (who was my top choice and key) not coming out of the gate had zero to do with the way the 2 ran. Do you re-read what you post?

We can all agree that making that bet day after day is likely a losing proposition. However, he took an isolated chance and it nearly connected for 32,000. To pick it apart as something more or different than what it was is idiotic. I commend the guy for having the nuts to make a play like that.

Just like criticizing race callers, jockeys, stewards and the like, it's very easy to rip someone when you have no skin in the game. Stick your neck out once in a while and your opinion has more merit. Needling after the fact in an anonymous, hindsight is 20/20 way is tired.

[Stillriledup]

Gibberish. This is silly nonsense. The guy was a nostril from 32,000. He was hoping for a perfect storm and he basically got it but was unlucky in the photo.

The 3 (who was my top choice and key) not coming out of the gate had zero to do with the way the 2 ran. Do you re-read what you post?

We can all agree that making that bet day after day is likely a losing proposition. However, he took an isolated chance and it nearly connected for 32,000. To pick it apart as something more or different than what it was is idiotic. I commend the guy for having the nuts to make a play like that.

Just like criticizing race callers, jockeys, stewards and the like, it's very easy to rip someone when you have no skin in the game. Stick your neck out once in a while and your opinion has more merit. Needling after the fact in an anonymous, hindsight is 20/20 way is tired.

Perfect storm? He needed a 4-5 shot to win to hit the bet. He was essentially 50/50 to win the bet when he made it, and was just hoping for a little luck, which he got in Race 1 with a 7-1 shot to start things off.

As far as having skin in the game to be critical, when did that become a requirement? That's the lamest most tired excuse in the book, oh, so you've never ridden a horse before, you can't criticize a jock, you've never called a race before, you can't criticize an announcer...bunch of poppycock.

As far as the 3's failure to break not having an affect on the 2, we don't know what would have happened...but since the 2 is a deep closer, the 3 would have been ahead of him down the backstretch and into the turn, who knows how that would have affected the 2's run, i was just making a point that it was a "lucky break" that the 3 never broke, who's to say the 3 wasn't primed and ready to run a huge race, he was a contender in the odds, he might have won easily.

[Oracle]

Anyone know what the P5 was paying to the 3?

Considering the favorite barely won, a clean break by the 3 and maybe he wins it and the guy doubles his money or whatever. But then this thread doesn't exist which would be a shame.

[Exotic1]

Why would i drive anyone off if they can just put me on ignore?

"As long as people are posting"

You have to be kidding me, there are hours and blocks of hours where there isnt ONE post on this entire board. Nobody is here, nobody is posting anything, this place is a morgue.

People trip over their cat at 6am running to their laptop to see what SRU said the night before, so to suggest that i "Drive people off" is comical.

"Distracting from an otherwise quality thread".

Many of those "quality threads" were started by me. Go check views and replies, you'll see SRU started most of that and created healthy debate and interest.

Yes, quality thread....because Andy Serling yelling "liar" in 3 consecutive posts is SUCH quality...the only reason i don't have Serling on ignore is for the entertainment value, he rarely adds anything of substance here, 99% of his posts are negative and he doesn't even do it while adhering to the TOS, most of his posts start flame wars and lots of angry and bitter feelings but i'm the bad guy? :D

If i was on ignore from all the posters who supposedly think i'm "ruining the board" none of this would even be being discussed.

I'm currently 12-2 in NBA picks on this board (really 14-2 but that's another discussion for another day) with specific writeups and nobody has said a boo. Not you or anyone has said good picking, thanks for the positive and valuable contribution, all i get is grief, while a guy like Serling craps on the NYRA ADW thread, posts are angry and hateful and contributed nothing, my head hurt reading that gibberish and nobody says a word about that its all about SRU and how bad of a guy HE is.

Nice picking, but I had no idea you posted NBA picks.
Keep on (posting).

[EMD4ME]

It's your board and we all appreciate the opportunity to share thoughts here. I don't think he's all that bad. There are others here far more negative and far more spiteful that I would boot before this guy. But, it's not my world so what do I know.

Ditto :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Not a bad guy/gal. Not disrespectful, does make the time to find a plethora of reasons to post, so what??? Isn't that good for business? He has the balls to point out the negative. So what??? Are we in such a pansy politically correct world that we must be positive all the time so feelings aren't hurt? Is it so bad to point out bad rides? So bad to point out poor stewards decisions? If people don't like the truth, they need to accept that the truth is bad, not the messenger.

[Stillriledup]

Ditto :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Not a bad guy/gal. Not disrespectful, does make the time to find a plethora of reasons to post, so what??? Isn't that good for business? He has the balls to point out the negative. So what??? Are we in such a pansy politically correct world that we must be positive all the time so feelings aren't hurt? Is it so bad to point out bad rides? So bad to point out poor stewards decisions? If people don't like the truth, they need to accept that the truth is bad, not the messenger.

Thanks for the kind words, much appreciated. Also thanks for the bigups on the NBA picks in the sports section, hopefully i can keep on keeping on. Robert Fischer also tearing it up w NBA picks, lots of good reasons to visit that side, lots of extremely knowledgeable NBA guys there (CJ, Canarsie, Lansdale , RF, etc) posting and exchanging ideas. Good stuff.

[Exotic1]

Thanks for the kind words, much appreciated. Also thanks for the bigups on the NBA picks in the sports section, hopefully i can keep on keeping on. Robert Fischer also tearing it up w NBA picks, lots of good reasons to visit that side, lots of extremely knowledgeable NBA guys there (CJ, Canarsie, Lansdale , RF, etc) posting and exchanging ideas. Good stuff.

Seriously, I didn't know that the horse guys post there. I'll check it out.

[SandyW]

SRU maybe you should stop whining about the attention a poster is getting for discussing the merits of a winning ticket in a $2.4 million pool at Santa Anita and get back to work on yet another diatribe exposing the TRAVESTY result of a stewards inquiry into a $5,000 claiming race or how some announcer had a HORRIFIC call of the 2nd race at Sunland Park that ruined your Tuesday afternoon.

I'm not sticking up for anyone in paticular, but is not this board a place to also vent most anything you want to talk about that concerns handicapping and horse racing.

[davew]

I think the pick5 had a couple ways to go, that are different than what you would do on normal days.

It was different because of
1- large carry-over from previous day
2- questionable track condition on previous day causing high pay-offs
(I feel this was as important as chaos races with random results)

There were a couple ways to play the bet (if you played)
1- low cost ticket in hopes of getting massive overlay
an example here->http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1758855&postcount=14

2- large ticket in hopes of getting big chunk of entire pool
-this thread is about an example of this
(would need a larger bankroll than mine, as I would not want to invest more than a couple percent of it into this venture)

[dilanesp]

I think the pick5 had a couple ways to go, that are different than what you would do on normal days.

It was different because of
1- large carry-over from previous day
2- questionable track condition on previous day causing high pay-offs
(I feel this was as important as chaos races with random results)

There were a couple ways to play the bet (if you played)
1- low cost ticket in hopes of getting massive overlay
an example here->http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1758855&postcount=14

2- large ticket in hopes of getting big chunk of entire pool
-this thread is about an example of this
(would need a larger bankroll than mine, as I would not want to invest more than a couple percent of it into this venture)

The thing is, it has to be +EV.

I am not going to comment on this specific play. But it's not enough to say "big carryover" or "I expect chaotic results". When you click the all button, you are placing bets on a whole bunch of different outcomes. It's going to be extremely rare that all of those bets are going to carry a higher expected value than placing a different bet will.

"Going for a bigger payoff" without analyzing if you are actually getting fair odds on the payoff is like playing the slot machine with the biggest jackpot rather than the biggest payout ratio. If you are just gambling to try and make a big score, fine, but if you are actually trying to be a long term winner, or to cut your long term losses, the strategy is not sound.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I don't see where the OP stipulated this guy was planning to do this long term. So I'm not sure why there are some that are bashing the way he played it. Obviously, the way he played the ticket he was "hoping for a longshot" and based on the amount of the wager he has plenty of disposable income to take a shot like this. It worked out he didn't lose the bet, but he didn't make any money from it either. I'm sure many of us would gladly take a shot at 30K anyway we can.

Personally, I'll ALL a leg in the pick 3 or pick 4 especially if I have a single or two horses I know will be longshots. I sometimes even go all with a favorite depending on the race sequence or type of race. We've all see these full field maiden claiming races that we have very little to go on and playing an all is sometimes a good play.

I'm not going to bash a guy that took a chance. It takes stones and a lot of cash to do something like that. Many casual players and experienced horseplayers will never get a chance to be "live" for 30K. Haven't we all heard stories where someone played their phone number or ssn in the super and "luckboxed" their way to big money? What makes how he played this ticket any different than those? Its just stories of luck. This game is like boxing you can lose every round, then *POW* signer. That's what makes this game so fun and exciting to play.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why would i drive anyone off if they can just put me on ignore?

"As long as people are posting"

You have to be kidding me, there are hours and blocks of hours where there isnt ONE post on this entire board. Nobody is here, nobody is posting anything, this place is a morgue.

People trip over their cat at 6am running to their laptop to see what SRU said the night before, so to suggest that i "Drive people off" is comical.

"Distracting from an otherwise quality thread".

Many of those "quality threads" were started by me. Go check views and replies, you'll see SRU started most of that and created healthy debate and interest.

Yes, quality thread....because Andy Serling yelling "liar" in 3 consecutive posts is SUCH quality...the only reason i don't have Serling on ignore is for the entertainment value, he rarely adds anything of substance here, 99% of his posts are negative and he doesn't even do it while adhering to the TOS, most of his posts start flame wars and lots of angry and bitter feelings but i'm the bad guy? :D

If i was on ignore from all the posters who supposedly think i'm "ruining the board" none of this would even be being discussed.

I'm currently 12-2 in NBA picks on this board (really 14-2 but that's another discussion for another day) with specific writeups and nobody has said a boo. Not you or anyone has said good picking, thanks for the positive and valuable contribution, all i get is grief, while a guy like Serling craps on the NYRA ADW thread, posts are angry and hateful and contributed nothing, my head hurt reading that gibberish and nobody says a word about that its all about SRU and how bad of a guy HE is.Andy 99% of the time doesn't start flame wars. Flame wars are started on him. For some reason, he's a very polarizing figure...most likely due to the abundance of hatred NYRA generates in general around these parts...for reasons unbeknownst to most.

As if NYRA is the only entity in racing charging simulcast outlets for the right to wager on their races... :lol: :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Ditto :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Not a bad guy/gal. Not disrespectful, does make the time to find a plethora of reasons to post, so what??? Isn't that good for business? He has the balls to point out the negative. So what??? Are we in such a pansy politically correct world that we must be positive all the time so feelings aren't hurt? Is it so bad to point out bad rides? So bad to point out poor stewards decisions? If people don't like the truth, they need to accept that the truth is bad, not the messenger.Yeah, that's what I wrote. We must be positive all the time.

Really?

[VeryOldMan]

Andy 99% of the time doesn't start flame wars. Flame wars are started on him. For some reason, he's a very polarizing figure...most likely due to the abundance of hatred NYRA generates in general around these parts...for reasons unbeknownst to most.
I think there is a reason Andy is polarizing, having to do with his apparent tone on the board. That's all.

I appreciate he has to be a "know it all" in his job and I enjoy his work. Sometimes that attitude carries over to the board in a manner that isn't conducive to further discussion. Just my two cents.

[Robert Fischer]

There is no "social satisfaction" in truth. Truth is for the few, error is both common and vulgar.
The fact that people espouse such erroneous opinions as truths, and are so ignorant to truths even when you have exposed them to truth, is enough to drive one into the marketplace to capitalize.

[v j stauffer]

I bash him because he deserves to be bashed. That's how I roll. Always have.

I could hire a bunch of monkeys to sit at keyboards and press buttons then hit SUBMIT REPLY. That's basically what you're saying would be good for my board. As long as people are posting. It doesn't matter what they post, if they post the same stuff over and over again, if lots of other people don't care for him and find him distracting from an otherwise quality thread...

You know, stuff like that...quality control...part of my job too.

If he DRIVES OFF other valuable contributors with his constant negativity and CONSTANT need to participate EVERYWHERE no matter if he's actually typing something of value or not, is that a GOOD THING?

I say it isn't.

I wish I could have summed up the ponderous SRU this well. Spot on post by PA!

[Stillriledup]

I wish I could have summed up the ponderous SRU this well. Spot on post by PA!



Try and get back to talking about jocks agenting stuff, stewarding stuff or announcing stuff, that's your strength, no need to be pulling 5th grade tactics with the silly name calling, this isnt 5th grade dot com, its a place where adults exchange thoughts and ideas about horse racing and handicapping in a respectful way. Why not give out some winners or get involved in the handicapping threads...most of us are looking for winners at tracks around the country, people aren't interested in any of the other stuff, start contributing in a positive way, the rest is just a bunch of garbage that nobody cares about.

[Stillriledup]

Andy 99% of the time doesn't start flame wars. Flame wars are started on him. For some reason, he's a very polarizing figure...most likely due to the abundance of hatred NYRA generates in general around these parts...for reasons unbeknownst to most.

As if NYRA is the only entity in racing charging simulcast outlets for the right to wager on their races... :lol: :lol:

99%? Really?

He's not nearly as polarizing as you think. He's really liked by a lot of posters here and probably respected by many more for his handicapping and horse racing knowledge, but when he's here, there's not much of that. I don't recall him getting involved in the handicapping threads too much, it just seems like a lot of hurt feelings because of what he perceives as shots at NYRA but you know what? At the end of the day, most people could care less, they don't want to be battling back and forth with a nyra employee on trivial stuff that has really no bearing on whether or not they cash their next bet.

I don't recall any threads where andy was in the thread and he was respectful and thoughtful and kind and someone just came out of the blue and called him out for something in a rude way..i dont remember that ever happening once, even though you 99% of the time, that's the way it happens.

[Investorater]

I can only hope Stillriledup continues with interesting posts and threads.

[PaceAdvantage]

I can only hope Stillriledup continues with interesting posts and threads.Maybe if we pray hard enough, it will come to pass.

[Stillriledup]

Maybe if we pray hard enough, it will come to pass.

Yes, keep praying, maybe one day i can post something useful by accident. ;)

[davew]

Yes, keep praying, maybe one day i can post something useful by accident. ;)


even if I occasionally disagree, it is usually thought provoking

[castaway01]

Try and get back to talking about jocks agenting stuff, stewarding stuff or announcing stuff, that's your strength, no need to be pulling 5th grade tactics with the silly name calling, this isnt 5th grade dot com, its a place where adults exchange thoughts and ideas about horse racing and handicapping in a respectful way. Why not give out some winners or get involved in the handicapping threads...most of us are looking for winners at tracks around the country, people aren't interested in any of the other stuff, start contributing in a positive way, the rest is just a bunch of garbage that nobody cares about.

Sometimes name-calling is all that is left. Your one supporter here said you were great because you're not politically correct, or some such BS. Now you're whining how you can't take people picking on you and calling you names. Poor baby. But I call it like I see it, and you're a troll. I've torn apart your BS arguments in literally hundreds of threads over the years. You've never once came back with a logical counterargument. You just start 10 other threads instead. I've pointed out the times you post on both sides of the same argument...you add zero other than empty posts. Okay, maybe 1 in 100 of your posts is coherent and adds something to the site. Wonderful, you get a gold star.

[Stillriledup]

Sometimes name-calling is all that is left. Your one supporter here said you were great because you're not politically correct, or some such BS. Now you're whining how you can't take people picking on you and calling you names. Poor baby. But I call it like I see it, and you're a troll. I've torn apart your BS arguments in literally hundreds of threads over the years. You've never once came back with a logical counterargument. You just start 10 other threads instead. I've pointed out the times you post on both sides of the same argument...you add zero other than empty posts. Okay, maybe 1 in 100 of your

osts is coherent and adds something to the site. Wonderful, you get a gold star.

When did i ever state i can't take people picking on me? I've put up with a lot here and guess what? I keep my head down, grind away, try and contribute in a positive manner and above it all, keep it professional and stay away from the 5th grade stuff.

You see, even you can't help yourself and have to start throwing around the "troll" word. Thats so 1999, people who have nothing left will toss around the troll word because they feel that's the biggest insult they can give someone, so you keep tossing that word around and in the meantime, i'll keep contributing positively to this site while doing it respectfully.

As far as 'tearing down my arguments" that's pretty funny because most times, all you do is come in here, with that angry man attitude of yours, and try and seek out something i've posted and just argue with it no matter what it is and then proclaim yourself the "Winner" just because you responded to something i posted.

As far as my "one supporter" goes its one more than you have. Its hard to gain a supporter when all you do is post angry man stuff and never really add anything of substance to any threads.

I'd normally hit you with my "you're better than that" phrase, but i'm not so sure, i think we all know your true colors and what you're about.

[ReplayRandall]

Sometimes name-calling is all that is left. Your one supporter here said you were great because you're not politically correct, or some such BS. Now you're whining how you can't take people picking on you and calling you names. Poor baby. But I call it like I see it, and you're a troll. I've torn apart your BS arguments in literally hundreds of threads over the years. You've never once came back with a logical counterargument. You just start 10 other threads instead. I've pointed out the times you post on both sides of the same argument...you add zero other than empty posts. Okay, maybe 1 in 100 of your posts is coherent and adds something to the site. Wonderful, you get a gold star.

Now that you spit out your full venom on SRU, you should be fully cleansed of all critical BS that proceeds forth from your posts.........

[Stillriledup]

Now that you spit out your full venom on SRU, you should be fully cleansed of all critical BS that proceeds forth from your posts.........

Go back and check this guy's posting history, 75% of his posts are banging on me while trying to be as insulting as possible. Not a good look.

But, on the bright side, he did say that i do post 1 out 100 posts that add something to the site, so i think ill take that and run with it! :D

[Redboard]

SRU commits the most unpardonable sin that a mature man can – he talks too much.

[Stillriledup]

SRU commits the most unpardonable sin that a mature man can – he talks too much.

y0bQ8pSIf00

[whodoyoulike]

y0bQ8pSIf00


Now, this is a great link!

How did you find this?

And, I really hope she's at least 23 (just to be on the safe side).

[Stillriledup]

Now, this is a great link!

How did you find this?

And, I really hope she's at least 23 (just to be on the safe side).

Found it by googling brown noser and suckup. :D

[Sunday Silence]

Pissing match aside, this was a bad beat for me. Had the tri multiple times if the 2 wins, and I watched that replay 10X and swore he got the bob. Sucked.

[thaskalos]

Pissing match aside, this was a bad beat for me. Had the tri multiple times if the 2 wins, and I watched that replay 10X and swore he got the bob. Sucked.
Any hints on how you were able to key an impossible-looking 40-1 shot in the top slot?