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Paulo
01-03-2015, 01:21 PM
I know there have been posts in the past about this software but I am interested in purchasing this software. Any updated pros/cons of this software would be much appreciated.

Secondbest
01-03-2015, 04:26 PM
I believe Pizzola is working on a new program to replace black magic.You can check by going to postime daily then go to blogs.

Flysofree
01-03-2015, 05:52 PM
I believe Pizzola is working on a new program to replace black magic.You can check by going to postime daily then go to blogs.


Will it need Post Time daily programs to run the software?

mabred
01-03-2015, 05:57 PM
sure will !!!

Speed Figure
01-03-2015, 07:24 PM
This was the 1st look at the new value capper software in this video.

raybo
01-04-2015, 12:30 PM
Having watched several of Michael's "rant" videos this year, I have much respect for him, and his software. The problem is the costs involved. You'd have to have some very good years to come out ahead, betting lots of races and/or large bets. Not my cup of tea!

Secondbest
01-04-2015, 01:10 PM
Last year I wrote Michael and told him I was interested in BM. I told him that I was a small bettor and what I usually bet.He wrote - emails- back and told me not to buy the program because it's not designed for small players.Its expensive and its not built for tons of winners but more for longer priced horses which are are fewer so you have to bet more with less winners but when you win you win.

raybo
01-04-2015, 01:13 PM
Last year I wrote Michael and told him I was interested in BM. I told him that I was a small bettor and what I usually bet.He wrote - emails- back and told me not to buy the program because it's not designed for small players.Its expensive and its not built for tons of winners but more for longer priced horses which are are fewer so you have to bet more with less winners but when you win you win.

Yeah, that's my understanding, from watching his videos. He passes "lots" of races. But, I have little doubt that when he bets a good "value" horse, he bets big. Michael is all about value, and has been for a very long time.

Secondbest
01-04-2015, 01:20 PM
When I got his long email telling me not to buy his program because it wasn't for me I was surprised.I have a ton of respect for Michael for that.

whodoyoulike
01-04-2015, 05:29 PM
When I got his long email telling me not to buy his program because it wasn't for me I was surprised.I have a ton of respect for Michael for that.

Thanks for posting his response to you. To me, it indicates he just may also have some integrity. I hope he treats all of his contacts the same way. I've never tried his products but, I might have heard or read some good things about them somewhere. I can't remember maybe it was a youtube video.

green80
01-04-2015, 07:29 PM
Last year I wrote Michael and told him I was interested in BM. I told him that I was a small bettor and what I usually bet.He wrote - emails- back and told me not to buy the program because it's not designed for small players.Its expensive and its not built for tons of winners but more for longer priced horses which are are fewer so you have to bet more with less winners but when you win you win.

I would take issue with that. IF the software will produce enough winners to make you profitable, you should change from a small bettor to a bigger bettor over time. As your bankroll increases so should your wagers.

raybo
01-04-2015, 08:05 PM
I would take issue with that. IF the software will produce enough winners to make you profitable, you should change from a small bettor to a bigger bettor over time. As your bankroll increases so should your wagers.

It's just a tool, not a black box, so the user defines the value not the software, and at $1200 or so, that is a rather large investment just to find out if it will make you a better player.

Moving from low bets to larger ones is not that easy, for many/most players. Their decision making abilities are less consistent due to the anxiety/fear of risking larger amounts.

Thor
01-04-2015, 08:46 PM
I have been in search of a handicapping program that will aid me in identifying races where there is a potential of hitting Higher roi's than what I am making now That search led me to this site as well as a couple of others. The public picks the correct favorite 33% of the time, I don't need a program to do that!

In my search what I have seen so far is that his program will perform an initial screening of any race card(s) you want given many different screening criteria. He tells you that it's a tool and the final decision to bet is yours after your final analysis. I like to play in tournaments and having a tool that can identify certain race scenarios is very attractive to me.

The product and monthly costs are not cheap but I view these programs to be like a prorgan to select stocks based on your chosen criteria. From what I have encountered to date are programs that do not seem to offer the screening capabilities as BM. He uses a modified pace line analysis so you do not feel lost if you do not have a copy of pace makes the race.

I have been in touch with mp over the past several months and he recommended that I wait for the new program to come out.

raybo
01-04-2015, 09:11 PM
Yeah, he's previewed parts of the new program in his valuecapper rants. Looks quite impressive, but you still have to make it work for you.

green80
01-05-2015, 08:23 PM
It's just a tool, not a black box, so the user defines the value not the software, and at $1200 or so, that is a rather large investment just to find out if it will make you a better player.

Moving from low bets to larger ones is not that easy, for many/most players. Their decision making abilities are less consistent due to the anxiety/fear of risking larger amounts.

I use a black box bet a fixed % of bankroll. I have more success when I take my decision making abilities out of the equation.

acorn54
01-06-2015, 12:57 AM
Last year I wrote Michael and told him I was interested in BM. I told him that I was a small bettor and what I usually bet.He wrote - emails- back and told me not to buy the program because it's not designed for small players.Its expensive and its not built for tons of winners but more for longer priced horses which are are fewer so you have to bet more with less winners but when you win you win.


i used black magic for awhile and what mr. pizzolla wrote you about the programs design of finding long shots that are few and far between is true in my brief experience with it, but like raybo said, for the huge cost involved for the software, and the daily data files, one would have to be a big bettor, to be profitable with it.

Speed Figure
01-06-2015, 02:31 AM
I don't think that every user of the program is a big bettor. There are many ways to attack the races with a small bank roll. I mainly play pick 3's, 4's and 5's with small to medium size tickets $24 - $120. I appreciate Michael because of the video's he puts out. Some races win and some lose, but he has the guts to give his opinion on video! The main reason I decided to do my own program was because I want to know every factor that goes into my odds line. With BM the user doesn't know what factors are used and how they are weighted. You only have early - neutral - late. The user can't add weights or reduce weights and their own. They can only change between those 3 things.

I'm the type of handicapper that likes to open the hood and see what's going on! with BM the hood is locked! and you can't get it open to change things you may or may not want in your odds line. Downloading, displaying the races, different portfolios etc, it's the best thing I've ever seen.

raybo
01-06-2015, 12:26 PM
I suppose if you can handle the initial cost of the software, and you can get through the learning curve for operating the software, and the data file costs are not too high, and you are already a good handicapper, it could be worth it, as a small bettor, if you play enough races.

That's a lot of "ifs" though.

Wickel
01-14-2015, 01:57 PM
Any idea what the asking price for the new program will be?

shane
01-15-2015, 07:00 AM
I don't think it's a new program. I believe it's an update with an emphasis on the money box.

acorn54
01-15-2015, 08:33 AM
Any idea what the asking price for the new program will be?
just get on the horn with posttimesolutions and talk to one of the reps.

Woodpicker
01-24-2015, 10:59 AM
ccHaving watched several of Michael's "rant" videos this year, I have much respect for him, and his software. The problem is the costs involved. You'd have to have some very good years to come out ahead, betting lots of races and/or large bets. Not my cup of tea!


Hi Raybo,
I posted a few months ago in regard to software. I bought Michael's first book
a few years ago and read it. He had an interesting pattern approach. Looked at
BlackMagic and he seems to have gotten heavy into mathematics which was not
a key to his first book. He is a lawyer by trade and I find his transformation
interesting. His package is expensive and seems to require an awful lot of
work just running the software.

raybo
01-24-2015, 12:32 PM
cc


Hi Raybo,
I posted a few months ago in regard to software. I bought Michael's first book
a few years ago and read it. He had an interesting pattern approach. Looked at
BlackMagic and he seems to have gotten heavy into mathematics which was not
a key to his first book. He is a lawyer by trade and I find his transformation
interesting. His package is expensive and seems to require an awful lot of
work just running the software.

While I'm not intimately knowledgeable of Michael (others here who were involved in early Sartin and Pirco will know much more about him than I do), I think that early on he was even then beginning to concentrate on "value" which, it appears, was a bit disconcerting to the other "faithful".

As time went by, again I think, his emphasis on value dramatically increased, to the point that, now, he is solely interested in value, and at least in his videos, refuses to make premium bets on horses that he does not believe are offering premium value. Yes, he says that he makes a few "action" bets, but those are not with premium bet sizes.

In order to focus so much on "value", one must become more "contrarian" in ones approach, looking not on the last race or two, but further back in the past. Most handicappers primarily look at the last couple of races and focus on the horse with the highest ratings (speed, pace, class, whatever) in those last couple of races.

A contrarian would look for the highest rating, like the majority of handicappers, but only as a benchmark, from which to work from. Once that rating (or ratings) is determined, the contrarian looks at the other horses in the race that haven't done so well in the last couple of races, looking further back for higher ratings, better pace, higher class, etc., than that benchmark rating. This is the opposite of what most handicappers do, they want recency in those ratings.

Michael, I believe, became more technical (computer oriented), out of necessity. When you are a contrarian handicapper, you have a harder time finding horses to bet, so you must look at more races than others, in the same time period. So, you have to have a tool that helps you look at many more races, without getting sloppy in your 'capping. The best way to do that is with automated software. Software that helps to point out the horses and situations you're looking for.

I think Michael has developed software that does what he needs it to do.

So, while he may seem too technical and automated, he has good reason for that, and I don't believe it diminishes any of his, obvious, ability to handicap just as well as any other good handicapper.

ReplayRandall
01-24-2015, 01:31 PM
A contrarian would look for the highest rating, like the majority of handicappers, but only as a benchmark, from which to work from. Once that rating (or ratings) is determined, the contrarian looks at the other horses in the race that haven't done so well in the last couple of races, looking further back for higher ratings, better pace, higher class, etc., than that benchmark rating. This is the opposite of what most handicappers do, they want recency in those ratings.

I believe these statements in bold are commonplace to most handicappers today. This is a contributing factor as to why the game is much tougher than just 5 years ago, too much quality info to found be easily. This is exactly the same reason that poker is much tougher to beat......

raybo
01-24-2015, 01:33 PM
I believe these statements in bold are commonplace to most handicappers today. This is a contributing factor as to why the game is much tougher than just 5 years ago, too much quality info to found be easily. This is exactly the same reason that poker is much tougher to beat......

Yes, and the reason one must be patient, and look at more races. If you look at enough races, you will eventually find some good value bets.

But, I wouldn't go as far as saying that it is what "most" handicappers do today, rather what many "good" handicappers do today, and with the big money being bet at the last moment, value is hard to find on decent looking horses. So, you have to try to balance your need for cashing tickets with your search for good prices.

Woodpicker
01-26-2015, 04:19 PM
While I'm not intimately knowledgeable of Michael (others here who were involved in early Sartin and Pirco will know much more about him than I do), I think that early on he was even then beginning to concentrate on "value" which, it appears, was a bit disconcerting to the other "faithful".

As time went by, again I think, his emphasis on value dramatically increased, to the point that, now, he is solely interested in value, and at least in his videos, refuses to make premium bets on horses that he does not believe are offering premium value. Yes, he says that he makes a few "action" bets, but those are not with premium bet sizes.

In order to focus so much on "value", one must become more "contrarian" in ones approach, looking not on the last race or two, but further back in the past. Most handicappers primarily look at the last couple of races and focus on the horse with the highest ratings (speed, pace, class, whatever) in those last couple of races.

A contrarian would look for the highest rating, like the majority of handicappers, but only as a benchmark, from which to work from. Once that rating (or ratings) is determined, the contrarian looks at the other horses in the race that haven't done so well in the last couple of races, looking further back for higher ratings, better pace, higher class, etc., than that benchmark rating. This is the opposite of what most handicappers do, they want recency in those ratings.

Michael, I believe, became more technical (computer oriented), out of necessity. When you are a contrarian handicapper, you have a harder time finding horses to bet, so you must look at more races than others, in the same time period. So, you have to have a tool that helps you look at many more races, without getting sloppy in your 'capping. The best way to do that is with automated software. Software that helps to point out the horses and situations you're looking for.

I think Michael has developed software that does what he needs it to do.

So, while he may seem too technical and automated, he has good reason for that, and I don't believe it diminishes any of his, obvious, ability to handicap just as well as any other good handicapper.

Raybo,
Very nice analysis. I think you hit the mark about Black Magic. I read a book a while
back about the characteristics of the best gamblers. It was by a mathematician who visited Las Vegas and wrote a book about it. He used the analogy that Robert E. Lee was an extreme gambler at Gettysburg. By analogy a good gambler would know when to make the largest bet. Personally, I use the Kelly Criterion. Theoretically it is sound but I find it has limitations in application since today's odds board jumps more with simulcasting pools. In the end, it seems to average out. From the comments on the board, I get that most players want lower cost software that does a lot for the money.

raybo
01-26-2015, 06:41 PM
Raybo,
Very nice analysis. I think you hit the mark about Black Magic. I read a book a while
back about the characteristics of the best gamblers. It was by a mathematician who visited Las Vegas and wrote a book about it. He used the analogy that Robert E. Lee was an extreme gambler at Gettysburg. By analogy a good gambler would know when to make the largest bet. Personally, I use the Kelly Criterion. Theoretically it is sound but I find it has limitations in application since today's odds board jumps more with simulcasting pools. In the end, it seems to average out. From the comments on the board, I get that most players want lower cost software that does a lot for the money.

Thanks, like I say, I don't own Black Magic, nor do I know Michael Pizzola personally, so I'm just offering my opinion of him and his software (which I have seen Michael use in his videos.

Regarding players wanting a lot of software for a short price, I agree. But, there are some that will spend the money, regardless of the price, but for most, there is a definite ceiling they will not go above, for various reasons, either they don't have the money to spend, or they realize that in order to pay for the software via using it, it would have to produce very, very well, for them. That is the catch when considering purchasing software, it may not produce well for one person, but it does for another, even a "black box" might not produce well for everyone, because unless the black box actually formulates the bets for you, decides the bet amount, and places them for you via an ADW hookup, the player can still screw everything up by his undisciplined bet formulation and/or his betting amount/method, and/or his consistency in following the rules of the software (pass/play notifications for instance).

In other words, the player can be sitting on a gold mine, but ends up in the poor house, by his own actions, or inactions.

Appy
01-27-2015, 08:15 PM
Well Raybo my friend, you nailed it right there, along with your earlier point about patiently looking for proper opportunities, and I think that applies to ALL computer programs, not just Black Magic.
Regardless of what program you elect to use, the way "it" performs is entirely reliant on the user's decision making ability.

Someone said earlier in one of these recent threads that TMM is in no way comparable to Black Magic. I do not agree with that statement.
TMM in tandem with PTD2 (Pizzola's free program) are the basis for which the handicapping portion of Black Magic was built. Using TMM you will see the same selection suggestions as is presented to users of Black Magic. That is born out simply by comparison to screenshots in Pizzolla's own handicapping rants while using BM. It is true that Black Magic automates a LOT of processes TMM/Valuetek does not, and adds a lot of valueable bells and whistles. BUT, for someone willing to do his own diligence you will get the same selection considerations from TMM as you can with BM. The all important thing is what the user decides to do with them.

Woodpicker
01-29-2015, 08:30 PM
Thanks, like I say, I don't own Black Magic, nor do I know Michael Pizzola personally, so I'm just offering my opinion of him and his software (which I have seen Michael use in his videos.

Regarding players wanting a lot of software for a short price, I agree. But, there are some that will spend the money, regardless of the price, but for most, there is a definite ceiling they will not go above, for various reasons, either they don't have the money to spend, or they realize that in order to pay for the software via using it, it would have to produce very, very well, for them. That is the catch when considering purchasing software, it may not produce well for one person, but it does for another, even a "black box" might not produce well for everyone, because unless the black box actually formulates the bets for you, decides the bet amount, and places them for you via an ADW hookup, the player can still screw everything up by his undisciplined bet formulation and/or his betting amount/method, and/or his consistency in following the rules of the software (pass/play notifications for instance).

In other words, the player can be sitting on a gold mine, but ends up in the poor house, by his own actions, or inactions.


I had a contract about 3 years ago to develop some innovative software based on the principles of artificial intelligence and some very unconventional statistics. I spent some hours on the project and actually did develop some primitive routines. The project failed and I had to abandon it because AI is very difficult to apply at the track. You probably remember the old neural network software which is still available. I spent a lot of time
doing research in AI. Machines can do a lot but they are far from a conscious level.
Big Blue beat Chess years ago. Jeoprady was also beaten by a machine. Horse racing
moves too fast for a machine. Getting a machine to think is a whole lot different than
number crunching. I found some research from a mid-western university where a
UNIX machine was used to develop a module. One thing I did discover concerned the
weakness of DRF's formulator. I like Formulator and I have used it. I used it for
a while after it beat me on a BC race a few years ago. ROI is a summary statistic and
can be used as a predictor. However, it often fails because in the end it only uses an
average. In the end, all statistics are simply based on the ideas of Irving Fisher.
A lot of the Black Boxes are based on his statistical ideas. I heard of one in Hong Kong that worked really well.

Giahorse
02-05-2015, 01:59 AM
Last year I wrote Michael and told him I was interested in BM. I told him that I was a small bettor and what I usually bet.He wrote - emails- back and told me not to buy the program because it's not designed for small players.Its expensive and its not built for tons of winners but more for longer priced horses which are are fewer so you have to bet more with less winners but when you win you win.


There is a lot of speculation about what the facts really might be, and as someone who was with pirco in 1990 and left when Mike moved on and have used all of his programs I can say that most of what everyone saying is true to an extent. The program is almost $1500, but you can also do 3 installments if that helps. as for needing to be a big or large better to use it, that is the farthest thing from the truth, most and i say most of the regular program users are not big betters, they are not $2 across the board betters but by no means are they even mid lev betters.

--BLAM IS A PROFESSIONAL LEVEL PROGRAM. for people who look at there wagers as investments. not to say that someone who goes just on the weekends of a few times a month couldn't benefit from it as well

People think for an expensive program to be worth wild you need to be a larger better, the money Blam has saved me from just being more selective with my wagers payed for the program fast. Also if you are new to this the learning curve can be a lot, the program can be used in a simple way, but since you will get 10 hours plus of DVDs that explain the portfolios and then at this stage in the game he will send you all the past Wizard forum DVDs witch will be another 50+ hours of DVD to view. there is a large investment in your time.

From Mike's playing style bankroll also comes into play, even though he is a big better, a $40 win bet for him is big becouse he is a huge exotic player,

The key to doing well for a lot of the programs users is that since are win % isnt huge when we are right about a horse that is 6-1-20-1+ you want to cash on that horse, you want to have a win bet and a few of the exotics,that way when we are right you get paid for it.

And as for the new program that hopefully will be out in the spring. it is a stand alone program not and add on to Blam, it will have Blam within it but it is a totally new program.

I hope this helps.

Giahorse