Big Favorite to go down?

[zico20]

Just looked at the 2nd at Tampa today. For everyone who loves to beat the favorite, this one is very vulnerable. The :8: is 6-5 on the ML and could easily run out of the super. The negatives are a horrible jockey, trainer is ice cold at the meet, the horse has never run on the main track at Tampa. The :5: :6: :7: are horrible. That leaves the inside 4 who all look good.

Now, every time I try to beat a favorite the end result is the horse wins in a cake walk. I may put a few bucks into this and try to beat her.

[lamboguy]

i hated the 8 as well, but this field is pretty bad and the 8 is a dirt horse with a weak rider that is still probably going to jog

[arw629]

I thought the :1: and :2: looked somewhat interesting turning back but who is going to run early with the 8? It is hard to bet the connections on the 8 but the horse def looks the one to beat

[auntjanet5]

10 Wins from 19 starts, doesn't seem to matter which jockey or trainer has her.

Best of Luck trying to beat her.

[zico20]

I see my 1-5 curse is going to continue in 2015. Last year every 1-5 I keyed on top in tris and supers lost. It was around 35 or so. Yes, I know that is impossible to believe, but I didn't have one win all year that I remember. Last year I bet against 6 or 7 1-5 shots and they all won. Either I have to stop playing for or against 1-5 shots or start doing better handicapping. At least I only put 24 bucks into this race.

[arw629]

I missed the race but $16.40 on the 8-2 exacta seemed like quite the overlay...

[Robert Fischer]

Now, every time I try to beat a favorite the end result is the horse wins in a cake walk. I may put a few bucks into this and try to beat her.

It's not an easy thing to do.

And it's deceptive!

Let's say a horse like your favorite today is 4/5.

That's something like 56% chance of winning just to break even.

Now you saw a flaw, you see a chink in his armor, and you bet against, and he wins...

It's deceptive, because maybe you did cut it down some. Maybe he was a 40% chance horse? (Where he would be 3/2 instead of 4/5).

3/2 shots win all the time.

If you can cut 4/5 ers down to 3/2shots you at least have a start to something going.

But what we REALLY want is those 4/5 shots that should be 5 to 1 :cool:.