Did you have a winning 2014 ?

[Si2see]

I am extremely satisfied that for the first time in a few years I was officially a winner for 2014 :jump: this is very surprising to me, because typically I do better playing live and with my home meet of Colonial Downs done i didn't make it out nearly enough this year (Gulfstream for sunshine millions, Keeneland for a weekend each meet, pimlico and timoniuom once each, and Charles town a half dozen times ).

I am thrilled that I hit more signers than ever this year, last year was my previous record and I still lost for the year. This was my 10th year betting horses.

Here are my wagering goals for 2015
1. Play smarter
2. Stop playing action bets
3. Stop chasing
4. Capitalize when I feel good about a sequence or a particular race.
5. Play smarter !!!!

How did you do in 2014 ?

[clemkadiddle]

I didn't know our current simulcast outlet would be open today. When I found out this morning that it was...and since I have been doing nothing but homework for the past month...I decided to see if there was any past performances available for any routes today at Aqueduct.

I found them for the 7th. As I glanced at them, I immediately got interested in #6 Peaceful Talk. So, I entered the data into my Excel workbook to see what things looked like mathematically.

In addition, the scratch of #2 The Spotted Wonder also enhanced his chances as "Wonder" ran with him in his most recent.

As suspected, Peaceful Talk far out-pointed the rest of the field. $20 to win. I also spent another $8 on gimmicks. I boxed the 5-6 exacta (as a saver) but played the 6-5 straight. I covered the trifecta and superfecta for $1 using 6-5-3,10.

Result: $11.60 win price (by over 12 lengths!) $2 exacta $54...(I had $3 worth.) Just missed the trifecta. 6-5-4-3 was the finishing combo.

At 2 minutes to post, I watched the odds bounce from 7-1 to 5-1...next flash was 9-2...

(of course my wife always gets the $...)

[Stillriledup]

I'm hoping to pick a winner, for a change, in 2015! Now, if i can only find a 8 quarters in my couch, i can actually bet it! :D

[wiffleball whizz]

-18500 or thereabouts

So far in 2015 -550 in sports fast start

[Stillriledup]

-18500 or thereabouts

So far in 2015 -550 in sports fast start

Whizz, im 10-2 in the NBA on the board, yes, picks posted before the games actually start....no way you should be down. :D

Btw, i miss you, don't see you posting all that much, happy new year pal, hope all is well!

[thaskalos]

Whizz, im 10-2 in the NBA on the board, yes, picks posted before the games actually start....no way you should be down. :D

Btw, i miss you, don't see you posting all that much, happy new year pal, hope all is well!
Give me a couple of picks for tomorrow, SRU...because the RENT is due.

[Stillriledup]

Give me a couple of picks for tomorrow, SRU...because the RENT is due.

You should have a year's rent already paid up if you've been following Mr 10 and 2..... :D

Let me look at the card.

[thaskalos]

You should have a year's rent already paid up if you've been following Mr 10 and 2..... :D


I thought HORSERACING was your game. How was I to know that you are an expert in EVERYTHING?

[Stillriledup]

I thought HORSERACING was your game. How was I to know that you are an expert in EVERYTHING?

I am. Im great at everything.....just ask me. :D

[Stillriledup]

I thought HORSERACING was your game. How was I to know that you are an expert in EVERYTHING?

Clippers favored by 19 lol.

One thing i know is that the Clippers had their first practice in over a month TODAY....so, they might be "sharper" in this game, and could win by as many as they want, but that's a lot of points for a team who will have no problem taking out all the starters in the 4th and let these backups play...i've seen the backups play and they're not all that intense, Pha can come back against those guys if they "keep playing" no way i'd lay 19, that's ridiculous.

I don't have any official releases for tomorrow, maybe Sunday? Hopefully you don't get evicted on saturday!. :D

[plainolebill]

3296 bets in 2014, down $198. If I had just skipped the first few days at Santa Anita it would have been a winning year. 2013 was just about the same.

[zico20]

3296 bets in 2014, down $198. If I had just skipped the first few days at Santa Anita it would have been a winning year. 2013 was just about the same.

If you played the races instead of doing other activities, like spending money going out with wife/girlfriend, etc, then you had a winning year since you would have spent much, much more than 198 bucks for a year. You actually came out ahead. Good for you!

[JustRalph]

If you played the races instead of doing other activities, like spending money going out with wife/girlfriend, etc, then you had a winning year since you would have spent much, much more than 198 bucks for a year. You actually came out ahead. Good for you!

That is some sad commentary right there........

[thaskalos]

If you played the races instead of doing other activities, like spending money going out with wife/girlfriend, etc, then you had a winning year since you would have spent much, much more than 198 bucks for a year. You actually came out ahead. Good for you!

If you don't spend money going out with the wife/girlfriend...then someone else might...

[mountainman]

Amen Brother..I'm cracking up here....Just what is this man actually saying???

First losing year in quite awhile, btw. But neither my winning nor losing seasons are all that significant, since I rarely have time to play, and I place few wagers.

[zico20]

That is some sad commentary right there........

Why is it sad. I know a ton of people who all they do is work and play the races. Spending 198 for a year on having fun is not all that bad.

[PhantomOnTour]

Started keeping records about 10-12 yrs ago and, for the first time, I have had consecutive winning years :ThmbUp:

Both were due to having an outstanding Breeder's Cup...I was losing $$$ before this event in both of the last two years.

[burnsy]

I lost. Had a winning meet at Saratoga but Belmont and Aqueduct got the best of me. I'll admit I'm a stronger NFL football handicapper than horses. This is the 3rd year in a row I've done well. Last year I posted every play in the contests they had. I noticed this year they didn't do it. I must of scared them away........

[hogoffate]

I had a great Oaklawn Park meeting but Belmont and Saratoga were losers.
Still kind of disappointed that I couldn't keep it going as I love Saratoga.

But was a W and I'm excited about Oaklawn starting next week

[OTM Al]

Within a couple bucks of even. Would have been well in the black if not for Saratoga.....

[Dahoss2002]

(-) just like last 5 years. Considering retiring

[JustRalph]

Why is it sad. I know a ton of people who all they do is work and play the races. Spending 198 for a year on having fun is not all that bad.

Now you made it worse........really, you don't get it?

[Robert Fischer]

30% winners (24/79).

[zico20]

Now you made it worse........really, you don't get it?

No, I don't get it. Why don't you explain it to me.

[Redboard]

This poll made me check my ADW account where I did most of my betting. The 2014 statement indicated I was down $101. I thought it was more than that. This didn't include my visits to Saratoga where I use cash. I don't remember having any big scores or losses there, but I probably lost at least $200, the whole week. For the first time in 10 years I didn't bet the Breeders Cup for various reasons, including TVG (my ADW account, I'm a NJ resident, I have no other option) not showing live the early Friday races, which ticked me off, and a personal family situation which took the enthusiasm out of me. I usually bet the most on the two BC days every year which usually makes me or breaks me.
I have no complaints. Down $300 this year. Spent more on green fees. I checked the 2nd option.

[Robert Goren]

For the first time in years, I actually showed a small positive ROI on turf route races. Overall I did not bet much and almost none after June. I don't know how often I will bet in 2015. Between my health issues and the industry's continuing efforts to chase away small bettors like me, it is really hard to get excited about pouring over past performances.

[098poi]

No, I don't get it. Why don't you explain it to me.

I think the point is that we are human beings experiencing this thing called life. Most would suggest that spending money AND time with a girlfriend or wife would be things that would add to the quality of said life. (I am single but I realize that may be a pipe dream)

Thaskalos had the best line worthy of framing!

If you don't spend money going out with the wife/girlfriend...then someone else might...

[JohnGalt1]

Horse racing (-)
Black jack(+)
Craps, one session (+)

Strange year.

In previous years you can move the + signs around.

My home track of Canterbury I went 11 times, stayed home 3-4 times where I could not find a bet, and won only 3 days. It took my awhile to figure it out this year and lost $66.65 there.

Strange year.

[kuusinen27]

I go to the track a few times a week for social reasons (club for older
males), I have a Twinspires account to bet a home, to get out of the
house. I know a lot of guys there in the simulcast area and many who
are good handicappers but I only know one guy who I think beats this
game. When I read threads on here bemoaning the down slide of horse
racing and cannot understand why the general public does not develop
the love of horse betting the people on the forum have they are looking
at things based on what is interesting (or boring) to them. Sitting with a
racing form and pen for hours is like the bookeeper of old wearing his visor
toiling with the numbers, it is work, yes it is work that most of the people
on here enjoy but it is still work and many people do not see the rewards
a person gets from the effort. Add to this that this type of work is usually
done for us by computers in today's world which is what younger people
only know and in the end almost every bettor comes out behind. including
me.

[JustRalph]

I think the point is that we are human beings experiencing this thing called life. Most would suggest that spending money AND time with a girlfriend or wife would be things that would add to the quality of said life. (I am single but I realize that may be a pipe dream)

Thaskalos had the best line worthy of framing!

If you don't spend money going out with the wife/girlfriend...then someone else might...

Eloquent, brief and concise. :ThmbUp:

[banacek]

+7.8% primarily betting to win (95% win, 5% exactas)

[raybo]

I bet less this year than any year since 2004 (except for the year I didn't bet at all), bet $4330, got paid $5904, +$1574. Two decent paying superfectas accounted for most of that profit. The last 2 years I have bet more win tickets and far fewer superfectas than previous years, and while the ROI was only slightly less than previous, my profit was way down. When Twinspires dumped me, after bowing down to Texas law, and DarkHorseBet closed their doors, that put a severe cramp in things for a couple of months until I found another ADW that would let me bet, but their track list is small so I haven't done much betting at all since then. I've also been very busy with my program's user support functions and quite a bit of custom Excel work for others, so not a lot of time, or energy/interest, for wagering overall.

For the first time in my life, I bet a quarter horse race and a harness race, hitting small supers in both, straight off the tote board, not capping either time - LOL. Maybe that is a sign? :bang:

[PizzaCat]

Finished up $250 in my first year of horse betting. Had a great time enjoying the racing and occasionally betting where I saw good opportunities. Some of my success was undoubtedly luck, but I was happy with most of my bets win or lose. Learned a lot from the people on this bored, lurking most of the time and consuming knowledge from the posters here. Looking forward to chatting with everyone here more and enjoying the racing.

[raybo]

Finished up $250 in my first year of horse betting. Had a great time enjoying the racing and occasionally betting where I saw good opportunities. Some of my success was undoubtedly luck, but I was happy with most of my bets win or lose. Learned a lot from the people on this bored, lurking most of the time and consuming knowledge from the posters here. Looking forward to chatting with everyone here more and enjoying the racing.

Congrats! Not many can say they made money the first year.

[Secondbest]

I bet less this year than any year since 2004 (except for the year I didn't bet at all), bet $4330, got paid $5904, +$1574. Two decent paying superfectas accounted for most of that profit. The last 2 years I have bet more win tickets and far fewer superfectas than previous years, and while the ROI was only slightly less than previous, my profit was way down. When Twinspires dumped me, after bowing down to Texas law, and DarkHorseBet closed their doors, that put a severe cramp in things for a couple of months until I found another ADW that would let me bet, but their track list is small so I haven't done much betting at all since then. I've also been very busy with my program's user support functions and quite a bit of custom Excel work for others, so not a lot of time, or energy/interest, for wagering overall.

For the first time in my life, I bet a quarter horse race and a harness race, hitting small supers in both, straight off the tote board, not capping either time - LOL. Maybe that is a sign? :bang:

Just curious why supers over exactas or triples

[raybo]

Just curious why supers over exactas or triples

I played trifectas almost from the beginning, because of the large possible life changing payouts. My racing partner, and my early mentor, started looking at superfectas for the same reason, except there weren't that many superfectas back then. Eventually, as more and more superfectas became available, we both agreed that the cost versus potential profit ratio was about as good as the game offered (except for the Pick 6 with good carry-overs, of course). So, we both stopped betting anything except supers, and that remained that way until I developed my Black Box, which was designed to help me hit more winners for the top of my supers, which was the weakest part of my play. I found that the program could be used for straight win play, and work well, which I had previously thought couldn't be done, over time anyway. So, I started win betting to support my superfecta play (simple cash flow support for the supers).

Honestly, I couldn't tell you if exacta or trifecta play is not as profitable as supers, because I never look at that stuff much. Sure, some people will have much better hit rates with exactas and trifectas, because they don't cover the bottom of tickets as well as I do. I don't do "keys" or straight boxes, like many others do, so I don't know whether the exactas and trifectas would be better suited for that type of approach or not. I use a modified box/wheel (pyramid) structure for supers, usually with a single horse on top and 2-4 to place, add a couple more for show and a couple more for 4th, so the bottom of the ticket is much larger than the top, for cost reasons (each horse you add to the top, doubles the ticket cost, while adding below is much more cost efficient, and allows you to get those monster odds horses when they hit 3rd or 4th). I'm not interested in payouts under $300 for a $1 base super. When I hit, I want it to count.

If superfectas went away, I would probably go back to trifectas. So, I will never say anything bad about either exactas or trifectas, in the right hands they can be very profitable also, but you either have to bet more money, or more races, to make the same money you can make with supers. I prefer to not make racing my whole life, nor do I want to go back to "working my a-- off" for racing, so supers fit perfectly, for me anyway.

Oh, by the way, I never bet more than one ticket per race, except for the huge pool races like the TC and BC when I may have several supers with a different $ base (basically as long shots for cheap, or as savers for my main ticket), so it's either a win bet or a superfecta bet. I don't believe in multiple tickets and bet types, in the same race, like some others do. I just think that, over time, you will not do as well that way. I'm a specialist, primarily, so except for races where the super isn't going to be worth the risk, which allows me to win bet if value is there, superfectas is my game.

[Secondbest]

I played trifectas almost from the beginning, because of the large possible life changing payouts. My racing partner, and my early mentor, started looking at superfectas for the same reason, except there weren't that many superfectas back then. Eventually, as more and more superfectas became available, we both agreed that the cost versus potential profit ratio was about as good as the game offered (except for the Pick 6 with good carry-overs, of course). So, we both stopped betting anything except supers, and that remained that way until I developed my Black Box, which was designed to help me hit more winners for the top of my supers, which was the weakest part of my play. I found that the program could be used for straight win play, and work well, which I had previously thought couldn't be done, over time anyway. So, I started win betting to support my superfecta play (simple cash flow support for the supers).

Honestly, I couldn't tell you if exacta or trifecta play is not as profitable as supers, because I never look at that stuff much. Sure, some people will have

much better hit rates with exactas and trifectas, because they don't cover the bottom of tickets as well as I do. I don't do "keys" or straight boxes, like many others do, so I don't know whether the exactas and trifectas would be better suited for that type of approach or not. I use a modified box/wheel (pyramid) structure for supers, usually with a single horse on top and 2-4 to place, add a couple more for show and a couple more for 4th, so the bottom of the ticket is much larger than the top, for cost reasons (each horse you add to the top,
doubles the ticket cost, while adding below is much more cost efficient, and
allows you to get those monster odds horses when they hit 3rd or 4th). I'm not interested in payouts under $300 for a $1 base super. When I hit, I want it to count.

If superfectas went away, I would probably go back to trifectas. So, I will never say anything bad about either exactas or trifectas, in the right hands they can be very profitable also, but you either have to bet more money, or more races, to
make the same money you can make with supers. I prefer to not make racing
my whole life, nor do I want to go back to "working my a-- off" for racing, so supers fit perfectly, for me anyway.

Oh, by the way, I never bet more than one ticket per race, except for the huge pool races like the TC and BC when I may have several supers with a different $ base (basically as long shots for cheap, or as savers for my main ticket), so it's either a win bet or a superfecta bet. I don't believe in multiple tickets and bet
types, in the same race, like some others do. I just think that, over time, you
will not do as well that way. I'm a specialist, primarily, so except for races where the super isn't going to be worth the risk, which allows me to win bet if value is there, superfectas is my game.
Thanks for your quick response and thanks also for making such a detailed one.I think I' ll take another look at supers.

[raybo]

Thanks for your quick response and thanks also for making such a detailed one.I think I' ll take another look at supers.

No problem. Take a "serious" look at the supers. You can ease into it cheaper than you can play the other two verticals, because of the number of tracks offering dime supers nowadays. I use the dimes as savers when the pools allow a large main ticket.

[tanner12oz]

Nope..

pushed over 18k through the windows which blew my mind...only rebates were through twinspires which is negligible. With rebates id probably still be down but it would have been close. I think I could gave profited with more discipline eliminate Monday and Tuesday from the week and I'm way up ��

[lamboguy]

this poll has some great results, there are actually 30% winner's here. unfortunately i don't fit into the 30%. none the less its still a great game.

[Tall One]

No profit this year, but couple things to be encouraged by, especially since I played regularly last year for the first time in a good while. Outside of a few random mid-week bets, 95% of my plays were Saturdays on the NYRA circuit, Gulfstream Park, as well as a few night time ventures at the BIG M. Wagers focused primarily on W/P, Exactas, and dime supers.

2014: 6 deposits for $305.00. 1,117 wagers @ $4,957.70 for a $4,698.36 ROI. Not included were 8 refunds totalling $23.80.


I'd briefly like to add that stumbling across this board back in 2013 has not only helped me with my 'capping, but it has served me well in keeping up with the day to day news in this industry. Lots of good guys on here I could easily call mentors as well as friends. :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

this poll has some great results, there are actually 30% winner's here. unfortunately i don't fit into the 30%. none the less its still a great game.

Well, 89 votes is not representative of the total membership here, but you would expect some winners from a membership that encompasses some of the very best players in the game when you have the very best, and largest forum in the game.

[DeltaLover]

this poll has some great results, there are actually 30% winner's here. unfortunately i don't fit into the 30%. none the less its still a great game.


I have to admit that I am a little sceptic about the outcome of the poll and take it with a grain of salt.

In other words, I believe that most of those who voted that they closed the year showing a profit, either do not have a good memory or are not keeping good records or both.

Without any intention to start a flame war, for those who posted real dollar figures, I have to say that their handles are extremely low and not representative of a real and active horse bettor..

[thaskalos]

I have to admit that I am a little sceptic about the outcome of the poll and take it with a grain of salt.

In other words, I believe that most of those who voted that they closed the year showing a profit, either do not have a good memory or are not keeping good records or both.

Without any intention to start a flame war, for those who posted real dollar figures, I have to say that their handles are extremely low and not representative of a real and active horse bettor..

And THIS is your way of avoiding a "flame war"? :)

[raybo]

I have to admit that I am a little sceptic about the outcome of the poll and take it with a grain of salt.

In other words, I believe that most of those who voted that they closed the year showing a profit, either do not have a good memory or are not keeping good records or both.

Without any intention to start a flame war, for those who posted real dollar figures, I have to say that their handles are extremely low and not representative of a real and active horse bettor..

Yeah, well here's the start of the "flame war"!

So, what do you consider a "real and active horse bettor"? The majority of players probably go to the track a couple of times per year, and may bet online, if they have the opportunity within their respective states, a couple of times per month, if that much. Should those kinds of players bet $200 per race? No, they probably bet closer to $2 per race. The assumed 2% winners, of the total population of horse bettors, include those infrequent players.

People like you think that such players who happen to end up winners at the end of the year, are actually losers, just because they don't bet tens of thousands, or millions of dollars, every year. The number of bets, or the amount of money one bets, has no relevance to this thread. The thread is about how people did in 2014, not for the last 50 years. :bang:

[thaskalos]

Who was a better horseplayer in 2014:

The guy who bet a total of $2,000 and got back $2,200...or the guy who bet $2,000,000 -- and got back $1,999,000?

[raybo]

Who was a better horseplayer in 2014:

The guy who bet a total of $2,000 and got back $2,200...or the guy who bet $2,000,000 -- and got back $1,999,000?

Beside the point. This thread is about how each player who responds to this thread did this year. You and delta seem to think that the best players bet the most money, which is certainly not true, but that is outside the subject of this thread. Why not start another thread about how much money we have won or lost in our lifetime, which is what your question is really about, isn't it? Maybe you and Delta can then proclaim your superiority to the rest of us. We know you bet lots of money, and supposedly supported your family for years, from racing alone. That's super Gus! But everyone in this game doesn't have any desire to do that, but we are all still horse players (whether you like it or not), and we should not be degraded by people like you. Your attitude is really insulting to me, and I'm sure to the vast majority of horse players. Or, should all of us not even be considered real horse players? Is that your real point? We are not even real horse players because we haven't risked our bank accounts, and our homes, and our families, by betting money we can't afford to lose gambling on horses, right? I guess we should just quit posting, heck, maybe even quit the game, because we're not worthy to be called a horse player. Or, maybe we should just lie and say we're not winning horse players at all. That would be great for the game, wouldn't it?

[DeltaLover]

The majority of players probably go to the track a couple of times per year, and may bet online, if they have the opportunity within their respective states, a couple of times per month, if that much. Should those kinds of players bet $200 per race?

How did you come up with this conclusion?

Based on my experience, all the horse gamblers I know are going to the track either in a daily basis or at least every weekend and even the most conservatives among them are betting somewhere around $30 to $50 per race, while the average should be close to double these numbers.

[DeltaLover]

You and delta seem to think that the best players bet the most money, which is certainly not true, but that is outside the subject of this thread.


Not necessary... But certainly the 'best players' must have to show a respectable handle in absolute values.




Maybe you and Delta can then proclaim your superiority to the rest of us. We know you bet lots of money, and supposedly supported your family for years, from racing alone.

I don't know about Thask, but as far as myself (and given my terrible bottom line for the year that put me well in the red to the point of dreaming of a single P6 hit just to break even) I cannot proclaim any kind of superiority to anyone else.

[raybo]

How did you come up with this conclusion?

Based on my experience, all the horse gamblers I know are going to the track either in a daily basis or at least every weekend and even the most conservatives among them are betting somewhere around $30 to $50 per race, while the average should be close to double these numbers.

Well, you need to get a dose of reality. Your little world is not representative of all the players in this game, only that of your small world. The fact is, the vast majority of players are recreational players, and certainly do not visit the track, even weekly, much less on a daily basis. And they don't bet $30 to $50 per race, they probably bet $20 to $40 per visit to the track. Most people have real jobs, and real families, and real lives with other priorities. Most people consider horse racing, entertainment, like going to the movies, or out to a club.

[Tall One]

I have to admit that I am a little sceptic about the outcome of the poll and take it with a grain of salt.

In other words, I believe that most of those who voted that they closed the year showing a profit, either do not have a good memory or are not keeping good records or both.

Without any intention to start a flame war, for those who posted real dollar figures, I have to say that their handles are extremely low and not representative of a real and active horse bettor..




No offense taken. Coming from my little corner of the world, wagering close to five grand over the course of the year on the ponies is a lot of money. I play with what funds are available. I also enjoy sleeping with a roof over my head, keeping my utilities turned on, gas in the car, and keeping food on hand for me and the cat. I believe this is commonly referred to as gambling with your head and not over it. It works well for me, and I dont see that practice changing.

[raybo]

Not necessary... But certainly the 'best players' must have to show a respectable handle in absolute values.


The "best players" win more money than they bet, period. All the others are losing players, regardless of how much they bet.

[thaskalos]

Beside the point. This thread is about how each player who responds to this thread did this year. You and delta seem to think that the best players bet the most money, which is certainly not true, but that is outside the subject of this thread. Why not start another thread about how much money we have won or lost in our lifetime, which is what your question is really about, isn't it? Maybe you and Delta can then proclaim your superiority to the rest of us. We know you bet lots of money, and supposedly supported your family for years, from racing alone. That's super Gus! But everyone in this game doesn't have any desire to do that, but we are all still horse players (whether you like it or not), and we should not be degraded by people like you. Your attitude is really insulting to me, and I'm sure to the vast majority of horse players. Or, should all of us not even be considered real horse players? Is that your real point? We are not even real horse players because we haven't risked our bank accounts, and our homes, and our families, by betting money we can't afford to lose gambling on horses, right? I guess we should just quit posting, heck, maybe even quit the game, because I'm we're worthy to be called a horse player. Or, maybe we should just lie and say we're not winning horse players at all. That would be great for the game, wouldn't it?
I asked a simple question...and it wasn't directed towards you. You have no IDEA of what my OWN answer would be to the question that I asked...and yet you take my question as an INSULT to all the smaller players here?

What do you know about my "attitude", Raybo? You can tell what my attitude is toward the posters here...just by the one question that I asked in this thread? You were INSULTED by the question that I asked? It told you that you are not "worthy to be called a horseplayer"? I am showing my "superiority" to you? I bet a lot of money...so that means you should be betting a lot of money too? What kind of bullshit is this?

I wouldn't advise ANYBODY to bet as much, or as often, as I do. I even hide what I do from my own SON, because I don't want to be a negative influence to him...and you think that I want my way of life to be copied by the posters here?

You need to really read what people write before you attack them. Not everyone is like you imagine them to be.

[banacek]

I certainly didn't take thaskalos post that way. I was guessing he would say the guy who bet $2000 and collected $2200, but maybe I am wrong.

[DeltaLover]

Well, you need to get a dose of reality. Your little world is not representative of all the players in this game, only that of your small world. The fact is, the vast majority of players are recreational players, and certainly do not visit the track, even weekly, much less on a daily basis. And they don't bet $30 to $50 per race, they probably bet $20 to $40 per visit to the track. Most people have real jobs, and real families, and real lives with other priorities. Most people consider horse racing, entertainment, like going to the movies, or out to a club.

As somebody who spends over one thousand hours per year on the track, and hundreds of hours studying and thinking about the game, I have to completely disagree with what you say here. Based on what you said before, you almost never go to the track and also bet very little, so probably my opinion should be more accurate than yours.

The vast majority of the players I know (if not all of them) are race track regulars who are there almost always. Same people day in day out, year in and year out and decade in and decade out! Real horse bettors, not only know each other, but are also able to recognize them just by the tone of their voice! Very few are the cases when I new face is showing up and this usually happens during big racing days.

I also know NOBODY who considers horse betting to be the same as going to the movies or to a club (LOL)!!!

In contrary I know many, who are betting their LAST DIME if things go wrong and many who are spending their off track time, studying the form trying to raise a budget, to bet their picks in the early P5 or late P4....

[thaskalos]

I certainly didn't take thaskalos post that way. I was guessing he would say the guy who bet $2000 and collected $2200, but maybe I am wrong.
That's exactly what I was going to say...but I wasn't given a chance. To me, losing is never something to be proud of...and I have said several times here that this game is so difficult to play, that ANY winner -- regardless of bet size -- should be very proud of his achievement.

The "big winners" in this game have paid a TERRIBLE price to get to where they are...and, believe me, they wouldn't recommend it even to their own kids.

[ReplayRandall]

Yeah, well here's the start of the "flame war"!

So, what do you consider a "real and active horse bettor"? The majority of players probably go to the track a couple of times per year, and may bet online, if they have the opportunity within their respective states, a couple of times per month, if that much. Should those kinds of players bet $200 per race? No, they probably bet closer to $2 per race. The assumed 2% winners, of the total population of horse bettors, include those infrequent players.

People like you think that such players who happen to end up winners at the end of the year, are actually losers, just because they don't bet tens of thousands, or millions of dollars, every year. The number of bets, or the amount of money one bets, has no relevance to this thread. The thread is about how people did in 2014, not for the last 50 years. :bang:


Raybo, I've read more posts in the last 4 months, then I've ever read before here at PA. I've read many of your posts and find them informative and interesting. However, your recent posts in this thread have been out of character for you. After reading all posts in this thread, I believe you are in the wrong and owe Delta and Gus apologies. You of course, can choose to disagree, but at least think of why I wrote this response to you.......

[Tom]

The vast majority of the players I know (if not all of them) are race track regulars who are there almost always. Same people day in day out, year in and year out and decade in and decade out! Real horse bettors, not only know each other, but are also able to recognize them just by the tone of their voice! Very few are the cases when I new face is showing up and this usually happens during big racing days.

But you have no access to those players who play at home and never go to the track. Are they not real horse players too?

[DeltaLover]

But you have no access to those players who play at home and never go to the track. Are they not real horse players too?

Tom, I have to admit that I do not know not even one of them, so I do not have an opinion.

[duncan04]

But you have no access to those players who play at home and never go to the track. Are they not real horse players too?

If being at the track makes someone a horseplayer then this game is in trouble. Have you seen the attendance at tracks minus the big days? Playing the horses at home makes you a horseplayer as much as going to the track. Anyone saying otherwise is delusional or fooling themselves

[Appy]

The "best players" win more money than they bet, period. All the others are losing players, regardless of how much they bet.

I agree with this statement.

I also agree that those who play on a consistent basis are "real horseplayers" as compared to those who play very sporadically, or only premier events such as TC races. Except for test-only periods I believe I average playing about 3 days per week year round.
My personal measure of wagering success is ROI%.
My ROI for 2014 was far lower than I'd hoped for, yet I consider last year to have been a tremendous success in that I improved in several areas of need.
One area of improvement for me has been in the handicapping tools I am using, but equally important is advancing my understanding of wagers and wagering. I'm confident that combination will make upcoming years far more profitable.

With regards to personal handle I would again point to that old business axiom "it takes money to make money". At this stage I'm still playing small ball in terms of handle. As my bank increases so does my risk factor. When my bank decreases, so do my wagers. It's all about %.

[DeltaLover]

If being at the track makes someone a horseplayer then this game is in trouble. Have you seen the attendance at tracks minus the big days? Playing the horses at home makes you a horseplayer as much as going to the track. Anyone saying otherwise is delusional or fooling themselves

Some of my friends (including myself), use our ADW from time to time (very sparingly of course and only in special cases where we cannot get to the track due to some emergency) and I am also aware, that there is a significant handle coming from internet gambling.

Still, I believe that it is relatively difficult for someone to get hooked to the game just by betting through his ADW account...

Betting through an OTB (where there will be some interaction with other bettors) is probably a lot better but I have no doubt that the best way to become a horse bettor is by going to the track frequently...

[horses4courses]

On three ADWs I wagered just over $36K in 2014.
Combined, I won just over $800 between them.

However, I make cash bets from time to time at a local book.
Lost just under $500 there.
Add in the cost of some sheets I buy, I came out a $300 loser for the year.
Plus two signers that were declared, maybe a few more bucks to my losses.

I'm comfortable with the fact that it will seldom be an income source for me.
I like to keep it a cheap hobby. :ThmbUp:

[AndyC]

Who was a better horseplayer in 2014:

The guy who bet a total of $2,000 and got back $2,200...or the guy who bet $2,000,000 -- and got back $1,999,000?

Clearly it is much easier for a person who only bets $2000 for the year to show a profit or beat the track take. With such a small amount bet luck will often be the biggest determinant of winning and losing. On the other hand betting $2,000,000 and beating the track take significantly shows a result predominantly caused by player skill.

[thaskalos]

Clearly it is much easier for a person who only bets $2000 for the year to show a profit or beat the track take. With such a small amount bet luck will often be the biggest determinant of winning and losing. On the other hand betting $2,000,000 and beating the track take significantly shows a result predominantly caused by player skill.

It depends, Andy.

The guy who wagered $2,000 could have made 1,000 $2 win-bets spread over the entire year...while the $2,000,000 bettor could have cashed on a flucky, once-in-a-lifetime, million-dollar pick-6.

There are several ways of looking at this...

[DeltaLover]

It depends, Andy.

The guy who wagered $2,000 could have made 1,000 $2-bets spread over the entire year...while the $2,000,000 bettor could have cashed on a flucky, once-in-a-lifetime, million-dollar pick-6.

There are several ways of looking at this...

This is a rhetorical argument and nothing more. The objective of the game is not to prove who is the 'best' horse bettor but to hit the big score and nothing else. As I have repeated elsewhere, ROI and total handles do not prove anything and have nothing to offer, horse betting does not resemble bowling, chess or anything similar that can be measured by any kind of a point system other than GREEN $$$...

[thaskalos]

This is a rhetorical argument and nothing more. The objective of the game is not to prove who is the 'best' horse bettor but to hit the big score and nothing else. As I have repeated elsewhere, ROI and total handles do not prove anything and have nothing to offer, horse betting does not resemble bowling, chess or anything similar that can be measured by any kind of a point system other than GREEN $$$...

Yes...but this thread isn't really about the "objective" of the game. My own preference is to hang around the big bettors...simply because they've experienced a side of this game that the small bettors have never really seen. But I still give the small-betting winning player the credit that he deserves. Like someone else here said...if the player bets on a regular basis and wins, then that gets a thumbs-up from me...no matter WHAT he bets.

[DeltaLover]

My own preference is to hang around the big bettors...simply because they've experienced a side of this game that the small bettors have never really seen.

And I have to completely agree with what you say here. A recreational bettor who made a few deposits of small amounts during the year is certainly not the representative of the typical one.

[Tom]

Doesn't your typical player lose money?

[DeltaLover]

Doesn't your typical player lose money?

Him and many others too!

[horses4courses]

Looking at the poll, if 28% made money, this forum is out of this world!
Maybe out of some other things, too........

[cutchemist42]

Looking at my records....

-Lost about $80 on straight wins/dd play through my ADW. I'm just a $20 deposit, $2 dollar player, and twice got $20 to above $150, before coming back down. What sucks is that when I was winning like that, I became too confident and started playing more races on more tracks which killed. If I ever get up there again, I need better discipline.

-Don't play Derby Wars often but I was up $60 there.

-Lastly, I dont track my bets I make on-track because drinks/food/etc gets muddled into that, but I hit a big dd on Manitoba Derby Day so I will only guess I'm up $100ish there.

Honestly, I don't mind the losses, as it doesnt cripple me financially, but keeps me entertained for hours.

[raybo]

That's exactly what I was going to say...but I wasn't given a chance. To me, losing is never something to be proud of...and I have said several times here that this game is so difficult to play, that ANY winner -- regardless of bet size -- should be very proud of his achievement.


That is in stark contrast to what both you and Delta have posted more than once on this forum in the past.

[AndyC]

It depends, Andy.

The guy who wagered $2,000 could have made 1,000 $2 win-bets spread over the entire year...while the $2,000,000 bettor could have cashed on a fluky, once-in-a-lifetime, million-dollar pick-6.

There are several ways of looking at this...

I would preface my comments with "generally" realizing that there are certainly extremes and exceptions.

[raybo]

If being at the track makes someone a horseplayer then this game is in trouble. Have you seen the attendance at tracks minus the big days? Playing the horses at home makes you a horseplayer as much as going to the track. Anyone saying otherwise is delusional or fooling themselves

The point being made is that the "assumed" 2% of all players that are profitable applies to anyone who bets the horses, regardless of how often or how much they bet, or how often they attend the tracks or bet online or at other venues.

[raybo]

Looking at the poll, if 28% made money, this forum is out of this world!
Maybe out of some other things, too........

The poll is not representative of the total membership here, nor anywhere else. It only reflects the very small number of people who actually voted. Naturally, someone who made a profit this year has more motivation to vote in the poll than those who didn't.

[horses4courses]

The poll is not representative of the total membership here, nor anywhere else. It only reflects the very small number of people who actually voted. Naturally, someone who made a profit this year has more motivation to vote in the poll than those who didn't.

True enough.
The 55% who honestly stated that they lost, though, deserve some praise.

[thaskalos]

That is in stark contrast to what both you and Delta have posted more than once on this forum in the past.
Oh? You mean that you can produce prior posts of mine where I say that losing is something to be proud of...and that I have no respect for winning players who happen to bet small? What upsets you, Raybo...when I say that the best horseplayers don't waste their time with $6 win-bets?

You may not want to hear it...but it's the truth nonetheless. The $200 bettor and the $10 bettor are not playing the same game...even though the $10 bettor sometimes THINKS that they are. That's not the same as saying that the $10 bettor is not worthy of being called a "horseplayer"...nor does it imply that the $10 bettor does not deserve to be respected for winning money in this game. It just means that the bigger bettors have learned to deal with true adversity...which is something that cannot be taught in books.

I have repeatedly stated here that I have respect for horseplayers of EVERY KIND...because this game is next to impossible to beat. I've also stated here that I respect the winning bettors more, when I see them betting bigger amounts...because the pressure intensifies when the stakes are raised. And if that's what you call "disrespect for the small bettor", then you are wrong.

[horses4courses]

Oh? You mean that you can produce prior posts of mine where I say that losing is something to be proud of...and that I have no respect for winning players who happen to bet small? What upsets you, Raybo...when I say that the best horseplayers don't waste their time with $6 win-bets?

You may not want to hear it...but it's the truth nonetheless. The $200 bettor and the $10 bettor are not playing the same game...even though the $10 bettor sometimes THINKS that they are. That's not the same as saying that the $10 bettor is not worthy of being called a "horseplayer"...nor does it imply that the $10 bettor does not deserve to be respected for winning money in this game. It just means that the bigger bettors have learned to deal with true adversity...which is something that cannot be taught in books.

I have repeatedly stated here that I have respect for horseplayers of EVERY KIND...because this game is next to impossible to beat. I've also stated here that I respect the winning bettors more, when I see them betting bigger amounts...because the pressure intensifies when the stakes are raised. And if that's what you call "disrespect for the small bettor", then you are wrong.

I understand what you mean.
However, different circumstances (financial, marital, etc.) often dictate
whether a person is a $200 player, as opposed to a $10 one.

The $200 player who can't afford to be one is a fool.
I don't care how good, or bad, a race player he is.
He's a loser in the game of life.

[DeltaLover]

I really cannot understand why a winning horse player is going to remain a small bettor for some extend period of time. I find it very natural, to ramp up your handle as you are gaining more confidence and experience as a bettor. Even a very humble starting, with a very low bankroll cannot keep a determined and capable bettor in low bet sizes for long. It is only a matter of time until he reaches a level where he can bet significant amounts. Note that what can be considered significant can be easily measured by cost of living and it is not relevant to anything else. The rags to riches story, is very common in the race track, and I have seen examples of it many times.. What an casual gambler can never accomplish is to multiply his bankroll by many times in a few races and this is what separates him from the real horse bettor, who is ruthless when it comes to parleying small stakes to significant bankroll sizes.

[thaskalos]

The $200 player who can't afford to be one is a fool.
I don't care how good, or bad, a race player he is.
He's a loser in the game of life.
I agree...and I've met more than my share. I've even done it MYSELF...for longer than I care to admit. But we are talking about WINNING PLAYERS here...and the winning player who bets bigger amounts has been exposed to things that the small bettor has not even DREAMED of, and that earns him more respect...in my opinion, at least. How is my saying this "disrespecting the small bettor"?

[AndyC]

True enough.
The 55% who honestly stated that they lost, though, deserve some praise.


Is that all it takes to get praise these days? Tell the truth anonymously?

[thaskalos]

I really cannot understand why a winning horse player is going to remain a small bettor for some extend period of time. I find it very natural, to ramp up your handle as you are gaining more confidence and experience as a bettor. Even a very humble starting, with a very low bankroll cannot keep a determined and capable bettor in low bet sizes for long. It is only a matter of time until he reaches a level where he can bet significant amounts. Note that what can be considered significant can be easily measured by cost of living and it is not relevant to anything else. The rags to riches story, is very common in the race track, and I have seen examples of it many times.. What an casual gambler can never accomplish is to multiply his bankroll by many times in a few races and this is what separates him from the real horse bettor, who is ruthless when it comes to parleying small stakes to significant bankroll sizes.

If we are to believe Raybo...there are some guys out there who are capable of earning an ROI in the neighborhood of 1.40, with many years of profitable play behind them...who like to continue making tiny bets forever. Even their many years of spectacularly profitable play is not enough of an enticement for them to increase their betting size a little bit...so they could earn a bigger income.

They are satisfied in whatever they win with their tiny bets...and that's that. It sounds crazy to me...but then again...I've seen plenty of crazy stuff in my day.

[AndyC]

If we are to believe Raybo...there are some guys out there who are capable of earning an ROI in the neighborhood of 1.40, with many years of profitable play behind them...who like to continue making tiny bets forever. Even their many years of spectacularly profitable play is not enough of an enticement for them to increase their betting size a little bit...so they could earn a bigger income.

They are satisfied in whatever they win with their tiny bets...and that's that. It sounds crazy to me...but then again...I've seen plenty of crazy stuff in my day.

If they do exist I hereby volunteer to be their personal bet runner free of any service charge.

[thaskalos]

If they do exist I hereby volunteer to be their personal bet runner free of any service charge.
I'd even PAY for the privilege.

[ArlJim78]

Thanks to the Kentucky Derby I had a winning year in 2014, no doubt my best ever. Excluding that one race though and I lost for the year.

[horses4courses]

I agree...and I've met more than my share. I've even done it MYSELF...for longer than I care to admit. But we are talking about WINNING PLAYERS here...and the winning player who bets bigger amounts has been exposed to things the the small bettor has not even DREAMED of...in my opinion, at least. How is my saying this "disrespecting the small bettor"?

From what I have read on your posts, here and in the past,
you have never disrespected the small player.

The thing is, though, you have to make assumptions
when you are figuring who is a winning player, and who is not.

There's a guy I know here in Tahoe.
He regularly hits five and six figure payoffs on big carryover pools.
I know for a fact that he hit a PK6 at AQU late last spring for a half mil.

This guy is single - in his early 50s.
Never had any dependents, to my knowledge,
apart from the occasional girlfriend.

He has been betting high volume now for at least 20 years.
Is he a winning player? Does he lead the high life?

My guess would be that he is not, and I know nothing about his private life.
His success in business is what funds his gambling.
If times are not good for him at work, he appears to back off for a while.

With the huge hits that we hear about from time to time,
most casual observers in town figure that he is a winner.
I'm not convinced, but I root for him on occasion and I like the guy.

Back to my point - it can be very hard to know
who is actually a winner when betting the horses.
People aren't exactly holding a win/loss statement in front of them.

[horses4courses]

Is that all it takes to get praise these days? Tell the truth anonymously?

It's much easier to lie anonymously, is it not?

[lamboguy]

this is a game of math. if you can't overcome the math the math will overcome you.

i have not had a winning year in the last 3 and the only reason why i won the year before that was because i took down a few big pools in one race on a stakes day in Saratoga. take that one race away and you would find me completely under the ether.

i do know that there are plenty here that can pick better than myself, and i truly wish them all the best.

[thaskalos]

From what I have read on your posts, here and in the past,
you have never disrespected the small player.

The thing is, though, you have to make assumptions
when you are figuring who is a winning player, and who is not.

There's a guy I know here in Tahoe.
He regularly hits five and six figure payoffs on big carryover pools.
I know for a fact that he hit a PK6 at AQU late last spring for a half mil.

This guy is single - in his early 50s.
Never had any dependents, to my knowledge,
apart from the occasional girlfriend.

He has been betting high volume now for at least 20 years.
Is he a winning player? Does he lead the high life?

My guess would be that he is not, and I know nothing about his private life.
His success in business is what funds his gambling.
If times are not good for him at work, he appears to back off for a while.

With the huge hits that we hear about from time to time,
most casual observers in town figure that he is a winner.
I'm not convinced, but I root for him on occasion and I like the guy.

Back to my point - it can be very hard to know
who is actually a winner when betting the horses.
People aren't exactly holding a win/loss statement in front of them.

I agree with everything that you say here. Who knows if anybody is really a "winner"...or if they are betting high with income?

An acquaintance of mine was also in his early 50s, and he had me convinced that he was a successful, full-time gambler...at a time when I wasn't even sure if such a thing was possible. He had no job, and no family...but enjoyed all the trappings of wealth. A late-model Mercedes...a healthy bankroll...all sorts of leisure time...etc. It took me 7 years to find out that he had won the Lotto ten years prior...and was collecting $170,000 every February the 6th.

He collected the money for the full 20 years...and died broke soon thereafter. We all pitched in money for the funeral.

[AndyC]

It's much easier to lie anonymously, is it not?

No, because neither have consequences other than on your conscience when you lie.

[horses4courses]

I agree with everything that you say here. Who knows if anybody is really a "winner"...or if they are betting high with income?

An acquaintance of mine was also in his early 50s, and he had me convinced that he was a successful, full-time gambler...at a time when I wasn't even sure if such a thing was possible. He had no job, and no family...but enjoyed all the trappings of wealth. A late-model Mercedes...a healthy bankroll...all sorts of leisure time...etc. It took me 7 years to find out that he had won the Lotto ten years prior...and was collecting $170,000 every February the 6th.

He collected the money for the full 20 years...and died broke soon thereafter. We all pitched in money for the funeral.

Damn.....good story. :ThmbUp:

[alydar]

Having worked at an ADW where some very sharp players did business, I can tell you that almost everybody losses. Further, some show a profit after rebates but very, very few show a profit before rebates. Certainly a much lower percentage than this poll would indicate.

[biggestal99]

I won money betting, big deal, once you factor in the cost of racing information, and my annual trip to saratoga and the breeders cup, i lost but i would not trade my experinces of betting and traveling to racetracks for the money it cost me.

Allan

[biggestal99]

I really cannot understand why a winning horse player is going to remain a small bettor for some extend period of time. I find it very natural, to ramp up your handle as you are gaining more confidence and experience as a bettor. Even a very humble starting, with a very low bankroll cannot keep a determined and capable bettor in low bet sizes for long. It is only a matter of time until he reaches a level where he can bet significant amounts. Note that what can be considered significant can be easily measured by cost of living and it is not relevant to anything else. The rags to riches story, is very common in the race track, and I have seen examples of it many times.. What an casual gambler can never accomplish is to multiply his bankroll by many times in a few races and this is what separates him from the real horse bettor, who is ruthless when it comes to parleying small stakes to significant bankroll sizes.

Hmmmm, your post hit home, i am a modest bettor and i show a bottom line profit year after year, i hold down a 7 to 4 job monday though friday.betting horses with a modest bankroll is enjoyable to me, hell horseracing is enjoyable to me. I have a comfort zone ad can even go to the races and not bet or bet very small amounts now if the stakes are raised, i am out of my comfort zone and its not enjoyable to me (win or lose).

I do not possess the proper temperment to be a pro.

Know thyself.


Allan

[DeltaLover]

Hmmmm, your post hit home, i am a modest bettor and i show a bottom line profit year after year, i hold down a 7 to 4 job monday though friday.betting horses with a modest bankroll is enjoyable to me, hell horseracing is enjoyable to me. I have a comfort zone ad can even go to the races and not bet or bet very small amounts now if the stakes are raised, i am out of my comfort zone and its not enjoyable to me (win or lose).

Allan

I see absolutely nothing wrong with your approach.

Still, you have to admit that given your approach, you can not claim that you are an expert horse bettor and you will never become one assuming you do not change your relation with the game.

Again, I am not criticising your style and I repeat that there is NOTHING WRONG with it if this is what you like to do.. The case I am trying to make though (without any intention to offend you or anyone else), is that your understanding of the game and related experience is LIMITED and INCOMPLETE compared with somebody else who is taking the game seriously, constantly studying and thinking about it and has the courage to bet amounts of money that can (and will) hurt him financially...

[banacek]

The case I am trying to make though (without any intention to offend you or anyone else), is that your understanding of the game and related experience is LIMITED and INCOMPLETE compared with somebody else who is taking the game seriously, constantly studying and thinking about it and has the courage to bet amounts of money that can (and will) hurt him financially...



One summer many many years ago at a racetrack long, long, gone I bet $20WP on one horse in every race for an entire meet of 20 days and made over $3000. Not only that I made a profit every single day. I took the game seriously and constantly studied and it paid off. I knew that track better than anyone and was 22 years old. I made my own speed figures (pre published Beyer figures), had a trips notebook when there were no video replays, cut out the charts and cross-referenced them.

I understand the stress level changing as wagers increase, definitely true. But the year I made that money I had $100 to my name at the start and was unemployed. I took that and made enough money to afford university in the fall. No profit, no school.

I still have the same work ethic and wager significantly more than I did then. Of course you keep on learning and adapting, but to say I didn't take the game seriously or that my experience was LIMITED and INCOMPLETE or that I wasn't an expert horse bettor because I wagered relatively small amounts is ridiculous.

[DeltaLover]

I still have the same work ethic and wager significantly more than I did then. Of course you keep on learning and adapting, but to say I didn't take the game seriously or that my experience was LIMITED and INCOMPLETE or that I wasn't an expert horse bettor because I wagered relatively small amounts is ridiculous.

Again, there is absolutely nothing personal in my comments, I am just expressing my opinions.

[Stillriledup]

Having worked at an ADW where some very sharp players did business, I can tell you that almost everybody losses. Further, some show a profit after rebates but very, very few show a profit before rebates. Certainly a much lower percentage than this poll would indicate.

But don't some rebate players alter their approach to take advantage of the rebate? Strategy changes if you know your total handle actually matters, you might do things differently.

[AndyC]

But don't some rebate players alter their approach to take advantage of the rebate? Strategy changes if you know your total handle actually matters, you might do things differently.

If takeout changed to 5% tomorrow would you change your strategy?

[horses4courses]

But don't some rebate players alter their approach to take advantage of the rebate? Strategy changes if you know your total handle actually matters, you might do things differently.

Strategy change reminds me of a guy I know.
He told me the other day that he started making
all kinds of extra bets in order to get his players' card
comp level up to platinum.

Lots of place and show bets on chalk.
All of a sudden he found he could do no wrong.
Found himself cashing a $1500 signer trifecta.
Had a great day making "amped up" bets.
Now his comps accumulate much faster for 2015.

Good for him.....he's a super nice guy. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

If takeout changed to 5% tomorrow would you change your strategy?

Its not the same.

[tanner12oz]

As somebody who spends over one thousand hours per year on the track, and hundreds of hours studying and thinking about the game, I have to completely disagree with what you say here. Based on what you said before, you almost never go to the track and also bet very little, so probably my opinion should be more accurate than yours.

The vast majority of the players I know (if not all of them) are race track regulars who are there almost always. Same people day in day out, year in and year out and decade in and decade out! Real horse bettors, not only know each other, but are also able to recognize them just by the tone of their voice! Very few are the cases when I new face is showing up and this usually happens during big racing days.

I also know NOBODY who considers horse betting to be the same as going to the movies or to a club (LOL)!!!

In contrary I know many, who are betting their LAST DIME if things go wrong and many who are spending their off track time, studying the form trying to raise a budget, to bet their picks in the early P5 or late P4....

I kinda agree with delta. Its not a knock against anyone but I really thought that we as a forum churned more volume and track visits then this. I'm travelling the country hitting the big races, watching races daily, betting races almost everyday, following news daily...i eat sleep breath racing. Maybe I'm delusional but I thought we were all like that.

[EMD4ME]

I kinda agree with delta. Its not a knock against anyone but I really thought that we as a forum churned more volume and track visits then this. I'm travelling the country hitting the big races, watching races daily, betting races almost everyday, following news daily...i eat sleep breath racing. Maybe I'm delusional but I thought we were all like that.

I eat sleep and breathe racing as well. Don't feel like that's not the case.

[tanner12oz]

Probably a correlation between relationship status, offspring and overall handle. I have no wife, no kids...

[AndyC]

Its not the same.

If there was a 15% takeout and you were getting a 10% rebate how would your strategy be different than if the takeout was just simply 5%. Volume is only good in the rebate game if your results are good enough.

[Stillriledup]

If there was a 15% takeout and you were getting a 10% rebate how would your strategy be different than if the takeout was just simply 5%. Volume is only good in the rebate game if your results are good enough.

Its different because there's no reason to raise your level of play if the takeout is 5% because you cash for 0 if you lose. The 5% only matters if you actually cash your ticket.

So, essentially a 15% take with a 10% rebate is far superior to a 5% take because with the 15 and 10, your takeout is always 5%....with the 5% take and 0 rebate, you only realize that 5% if you win.

[banacek]

Its different because there's no reason to raise your level of play if the takeout is 5% because you cash for 0 if you lose. The 5% only matters if you actually cash your ticket.

So, essentially a 15% take with a 10% rebate is far superior to a 5% take because with the 15 and 10, your takeout is always 5%....with the 5% take and 0 rebate, you only realize that 5% if you win.

If you are a profitable player, you would take the 5% takeout. If you are a losing player, you would take the 15% takeout with a 10% rebate.

So does that mean you are a losing player SRU? This isn't the NBA :)

[Stillriledup]

If you are a profitable player, you would take the 5% takeout. If you are a losing player, you would take the 15% takeout with a 10% rebate.

So does that mean you are a losing player SRU? This isn't the NBA :)

Win, lose or draw i don't get into any of that stuff, people aren't going to believe what others say anyway so its not like any of that matters much, use the body of work from the poster and make your best guess on how they did financially, winners will show themselves to be winners if you read between the lines, losers the same thing.

If you're profitable, its not going to matter much either way whether you're getting a rebate or the takeout is 5%, but i do see your point and its possible that a winning player could make MORE money with a lower takeout than with a higher takeout and a rebate. You could be right when you say this, i don't know the exact math on which option is better, so i can't say you're wrong.

[baconswitchfarm]

So, essentially a 15% take with a 10% rebate is far superior to a 5% take because with the 15 and 10, your takeout is always 5%....with the 5% take and 0 rebate, you only realize that 5% if you win.



Correct

[biggestal99]

I see absolutely nothing wrong with your approach.

Still, you have to admit that given your approach, you can not claim that you are an expert horse bettor and you will never become one assuming you do not change your relation with the game.

Again, I am not criticising your style and I repeat that there is NOTHING WRONG with it if this is what you like to do.. The case I am trying to make though (without any intention to offend you or anyone else), is that your understanding of the game and related experience is LIMITED and INCOMPLETE compared with somebody else who is taking the game seriously, constantly studying and thinking about it and has the courage to bet amounts of money that can (and will) hurt him financially...

I take horseracing seriously. Very seriously. when I retire I am going to train a one horse stable. and my understanding of the game of racing is not incomplete, just because I bet modest amounts of money on it.

but I don't have the temperament to wager large sums of money that would hurt me financially, that I cannot do.

That is my one limitation.

each horseplayer has to be true to him or herself.

Allan

[Poindexter]

If there was a 15% takeout and you were getting a 10% rebate how would your strategy be different than if the takeout was just simply 5%. Volume is only good in the rebate game if your results are good enough.


Cannot agree with the last few posts about rebates being better than reduced take.

If you play into a 15% takeout with a 10% rebate, you are being paid back 85 cents on ever $1 you bet but the dollar only costs you 90 cents so your effective take out is 5 cents/ 90 cents risked or 5.56%. Theroetically you are better off with a 5% takeout with no rebate. To illustrate, I have 2000 to win on a horse that is exactly 2-1. He wins so I get paid $6000 plus my $200 rebate or $6200(however since this is a 2-1 shot he only will win 1 in 3 times so the I have to add $400 to the $6200 to account for the 2 other 2-1's that will lose) so I actually am being paid $6600. Now if the rebate was eliminated and the take became 5% then the payout would be 95c/85cents * 6.00 or $6.70 with nickel breakage. Now I am getting back $6700.

Now an advantage that rebates provide is that every horse is paying 11.7 % lower than he would if there was only a 5% take out. Non rebated players might be less motivated to bet a horse that is paying $6.00 then one that is paying $6.70 and give the rebated better more opportunity to get a better price.

Personally my strategy would be the same either way and like many, that reduced take of 5% or 10% rebate would drive me out of the marginal losing range and into the winning range and of course I will find more betting opportunites and bet more as would just about every other non rebated bettor.
Of course we do not want to get too logical here (if it aint broke dont try to fix it and we all no racing aint broke.....its thriving)

As I have mentioned many times some of the Whale groups and rebated sharps are so precise in their assessment that they just drive most if not all the remaining value out of the pools, leaving crumbs for the recreational non rebated bettor. When they are being rebated, their objective is to lose a small % pre rebate and use a large rebate to make them a significant profit. So the rebate drives them to knock the price of all contenders to near break even or lower. When your profit is rebates than obviously your motivation is to bet as much as possible. With the 5% take the payoffs are 11.7 %(95 cents per dollar/85 cents per dollar) more(of course breakage plays a role) on every horse but the Whales' objective changes as without rebates he has to look at each horse as positive or negative expectation at it's new higher odds and this in turn will force them to leave some value up on all the horses they bet or else they just wont make any money.

So the main difference between the 2 models is that the current model motivates whales to drive out all value from the pools and gives the public no chance of winning long term until/if they can get rebates of their own(and even then they will have a tough time) while the low takeout and no rebate model would insure that the Whales have motivation to leave value in the pools and of course everybody gets more attractive prices on all runners and bets more and pools grow and more money churns...............and then I wake up to modern racing and the Jackpot pick6 and super five and all the other modern cures for a horrible business model.

[DeltaLover]

I take horseracing seriously. Very seriously. when I retire I am going to train a one horse stable. and my understanding of the game of racing is not incomplete, just because I bet modest amounts of money on it.

but I don't have the temperament to wager large sums of money that would hurt me financially, that I cannot do.

Becoming the trainer of a one horse stable, is not the same as been a horse gambler; I tend to think that these two are completely different activities and do not have a lot in common.

Again, although there is nothing wrong about it and either you want to admit it or not, constantly betting lunch money is not enough to qualify you as a serious gambler.

A gambler must have experienced, at some times during his betting career, all kinds of the financial and psychological stresses that are related with heavy losses, ultimately forming the very special personality that separates a top bettor from a recreational retire who is trying to view the game as a hobby and an activity to spend his time...

All the time at the track, I see people who are becoming overprotective after a small hit that put them ahead for the day for a few hundred. The real reason why this is happening, is exactly because they want to extend their betting life as long as possible, meaning that their goal is not to make money but to have a lot of action spread to as many races as possible...

It does not really matter if you do not have the financial power to start with large bets right away, what is really important though, is to have the necessary qualities (like experience, courage and self confidence) to quickly ramp up a small capital to a significant sized bankroll, placing yourself in a position where you can take a real chance and hit it big...

[Sir Barton]

2014
Funding
Deposits 14 $3,038.00
Player Rewards 0 $0.00
Withdrawals 7 $5,735.00
Wagers
Wagers 357 $4,446.90
Cancels 1 $0.60
Winnings 76 $7,028.80
Refunds 0 $0.00
Winnings amount includes funds withheld for federal income tax purposes.

2013
Funding
Deposits 33 $4,892.00
Player Rewards 0 $0.00
Withdrawals 4 $685.00
Wagers
Wagers 433 $6,644.60
Cancels 7 $163.00
Winnings 62 $2,613.15
Refunds 13 $66.00
Winnings amount includes funds withheld for federal income tax purposes.

2012

Funding
Deposits 9 $1,325.00
Player Rewards 0 $0.00
Withdrawals 4 $450.00
Wagers
Wagers 370 $4,276.60
Cancels 8 $291.00
Winnings 49 $3,421.67
Refunds 9 $139.00
Winnings amount includes funds withheld for federal income tax purposes.

Switched to Jcapper and HDW June 8th 2014 from Bris Ultimate pps Still use Bris as a crutch on Maiden races Just wanted to say thanks to Jeff for all the work he put into his program and answering my calls and emails.

[Exotic1]

2014
Funding
Deposits 14 $3,038.00
Player Rewards 0 $0.00
Withdrawals 7 $5,735.00
Wagers
Wagers 357 $4,446.90
Cancels 1 $0.60
Winnings 76 $7,028.80
Refunds 0 $0.00
Winnings amount includes funds withheld for federal income tax purposes.

2013
Funding
Deposits 33 $4,892.00
Player Rewards 0 $0.00
Withdrawals 4 $685.00
Wagers
Wagers 433 $6,644.60
Cancels 7 $163.00
Winnings 62 $2,613.15
Refunds 13 $66.00
Winnings amount includes funds withheld for federal income tax purposes.

2012

Funding
Deposits 9 $1,325.00
Player Rewards 0 $0.00
Withdrawals 4 $450.00
Wagers
Wagers 370 $4,276.60
Cancels 8 $291.00
Winnings 49 $3,421.67
Refunds 9 $139.00
Winnings amount includes funds withheld for federal income tax purposes.

Switched to Jcapper and HDW June 8th 2014 from Bris Ultimate pps Still use Bris as a crutch on Maiden races Just wanted to say thanks to Jeff for all the work he put into his program and answering my calls and emails.


Nice to see.

[jahura2]

Great thread gentlemen. In 2014,Wagered 3,724.00.for a small profit of 316.00 dollars. I will give credit to many of you who have taught me some invaluable lessons. Still learning at 58, working on my patience and picking my spots. This year my goal is to minimize the "action bets."..

[traynor]

I really cannot understand why a winning horse player is going to remain a small bettor for some extend period of time. I find it very natural, to ramp up your handle as you are gaining more confidence and experience as a bettor. Even a very humble starting, with a very low bankroll cannot keep a determined and capable bettor in low bet sizes for long. It is only a matter of time until he reaches a level where he can bet significant amounts. Note that what can be considered significant can be easily measured by cost of living and it is not relevant to anything else. The rags to riches story, is very common in the race track, and I have seen examples of it many times. What an casual gambler can never accomplish is to multiply his bankroll by many times in a few races and this is what separates him from the real horse bettor, who is ruthless when it comes to parleying small stakes to significant bankroll sizes.

I agree. You make a very valid argument as to why anyone who develops a "winning method" or "profitable software application" would be a fool to sell it or reveal its contents to anyone other than someone willing to compensate that person an amount commensurate with what he or she could earn with that method or software. In short, if it is for sale it can be assumed to be "non-profitable" for the simple reason that one aggressive bettor (much less many aggressive bettors) would--in very short order--reduce whatever advantage was provided to nothing. That is simply reality.

[biggestal99]

Becoming the trainer of a one horse stable, is not the same as been a horse gambler; I tend to think that these two are completely different activities and do not have a lot in common.

Again, although there is nothing wrong about it and either you want to admit it or not, constantly betting lunch money is not enough to qualify you as a serious gambler.

A gambler must have experienced, at some times during his betting career, all kinds of the financial and psychological stresses that are related with heavy losses, ultimately forming the very special personality that separates a top bettor from a recreational retire who is trying to view the game as a hobby and an activity to spend his time...

All the time at the track, I see people who are becoming overprotective after a small hit that put them ahead for the day for a few hundred. The real reason why this is happening, is exactly because they want to extend their betting life as long as possible, meaning that their goal is not to make money but to have a lot of action spread to as many races as possible...

It does not really matter if you do not have the financial power to start with large bets right away, what is really important though, is to have the necessary qualities (like experience, courage and self confidence) to quickly ramp up a small capital to a significant sized bankroll, placing yourself in a position where you can take a real chance and hit it big...

You are correct, i am not a serious gambler, but i am serious about the sport of horse racing
I am a rabid fan, love horses and horseracing. Been to what 14 consecutive breeders cups.

Loved seduaire in the santa ynez on sat. Absolutely sitting at 4-1, my odds, hated the chalk
Main speed, loves sa, training like gangbusters. I wheel her in the exacta and win bet, if i was aserious bettor lol i would have cleaned up, but i did make a profit, and was thrilled with her race,


Allan

[Track Collector]

(-) just like last 5 years. Considering retiring

Similar story, and seriously thinking about giving it up (at my current $ level) in the not too distant future if I can not get it turned around.

[Track Collector]

One thing to consider when moving from smaller wagers to larger wagers is that your edge (Return On Investment) becomes smaller when keeping the exact same handicapping criteria/methodology.

The reduction in ROI is because larger wagering unit sizes significantly "dulite" the payout pool, i.e. they significantly lower the average $2 winning payout amount.

Depending on the magnitude of one's ROI going in, a too large base wager amount can unfortunately force a positive ROI to become negative.

Those who are $2 bettors (and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that) generally do not have to concern themselves with pool dilution issues, whereas those whose base wager amounts are much higher have the pressures of properly dealing with it, else they could lose huge amounts of money even while having a "profitable" handicapping methodology.

It's this peculiar thing called "pari-mutuel". :)

[Si2see]

I just checked back in on this thread ( I have been working long days this week )... Glad to see it picked up traction.

I respect Raybo's posts and he is correct I specifically mentioned this year, mostly because it was my first winning year after 2 of the roughest years I have had in my young horse player career, however I do enjoy where the thread has went.

New posters on our great forum having a winning year is great to hear. People not getting crushed and having an enjoyable time is great to hear. Being able to travel to the racetracks is something I myself enjoy more than Most other things in life and it is cool that so many that have been playing this game for longer than I have been on this planet still enjoy traveling to different tracks :ThmbUp:

On the flip side however we have honest posts from people like Lambo having rough years is obviously not ideal or why we play this game ( if you want to lose money consider owning horses :lol: just kidding Tom and Mike )

The truth is this is part of our game, and if it were easy to win and continue to win everyone would be doing it and we wouldn't have anything to complain about. I am thankful we have this forum to have these debates and share our ideas it has certainly helped me over the past 10 years.

Jason