Handicapping rules to live by in 2015

[Stillriledup]

1) As important as it is to make good bets, its just as important to make good SKIPS. Preserving capital thru skipping races is very important, something we don't think much about. Think more about it, 'skipping' is the lifeblood of any successful bettor.

2) Think about making more win bets. I know, we're trained to want that big score, but there's nothing wrong with hitting a 3-1 shot. That's 3x more money than a sports bettor profits on an NFL bet, its not that bad, but we think of it in the context of scores that are in the thousands...3-1 doesn't seem like much, but its a lot in the context of how we do things. How many times have you loved a 3-1 shot but it wasn't "enough" and instead of putting 100 to win, you put 20 to win and blew up 80 in exotics only to say to yourself after the race "i had the winner and LOST 20 on the race". Dont let that happen to you as often in 2015.

If you're picking 3-1 winners and losing money on the race, its going to be pretty hard to show a profit year after year.

3) Stick to horses. As humans, we love to complain about other humans and get other humans in our heads, but the reality of the situation is this. If you're betting an A track, most of the bets you make are going to be on horses with competent jocks and or competent trainers...if you get too emotional, you might change your opinion on a horse because of a human. Let the humans cancel each other out and bet on HORSES. Watch more replays and learn the animals inside and out and don't be swayed by a jockey or trainer, its horse racing, not people racing.

I know what you'll say, "but SRU, there's a lot of trainers out there cheating, supertrainers who win 30 percent, how can i NOT pay attention to that". And my answer is simple. Make a supertrainer your friend by betting against him or her. If you're going to let humans seep into your handicapping, let them seep in there as "bet againsts" not seeping in there as bet ons. If you're betting ON a human, there's a good chance its a popular human with a lot of credentials....people aren't betting ON "Joe Blow" who's winning 5%, they're betting ON Baffert, Pletcher, Castellano and other highly skilled people. Don't get sucked in, Sharp players aren't looking to bet ON leading trainers and jocks for the most part, because you get killed on ROI, look to bet AGAINST these people when the time is right....they all lose more races than they win.

But SRU you might say "Robertino Diodoro does win occasionally at 5-2" and my answer to that is if Diodoro is 5-2, its probably a horse who would have been 4-1 with Joe Blow....so, even if he's winning at an "ok price" its not VALUE and if you get it in your head that its ok to bet Diodoro (or another high percentage trainer) you might bet on him more than just the times he pays 7 bucks. Just say no and stick with no name humans riding and training sneaky good horses, you'll be better off.

Anyone else have any "rules", feel free to add them!

[thaskalos]

Don't be fooled by a horse's bad last race, even if it appears inexcusable: The horse's connections are trying to cash bets too...and they are well aware of the attention that a sharp last race attracts. Learn to dig a little deeper, and watch your bottom line improve.

Do not allow yourself to get distracted while you are gambling: I cannot do better here than to quote Tom Ainslie, who wrote over 40 years ago: "Serious horse betting is a solitary activity. The more social it gets...the less profitable it becomes". It was true then...and it's even more true today.

Bet the same amount on all the races that you intend to play: I know...you are an experienced player, and you can distinguish your "best bets" from your regular ones. I thought I could too, but I was wrong...and I suspect that you are wrong as well. The sad truth is that we don't know where our winners will be coming from...and the biggest windfalls usually come from the plays that excite us the least. Bet the same amount every time...and save yourself the aggravation and the second-guessing.

Avoid making "action bets" at all costs: Yes...Andy Beyer wrote that there is nothing wrong with "insignificant" action bets, and even claimed that these action bets made him pay closer attention to the work before him. But Beyer said this at a time when we only had one track's races available to us for our day's wagering. In today's full-card simulcasting era, there is no place for action bets...even if they are relatively "insignificant". Put a few insignificant losses together...and they total a significant amount.

[Exotic1]

Bet the same amount on all the races that you intend to play: ...

Along that line, do you map out all your plays, verticals and horizontals, before you start playing? Will you let track Bias (real or imagined) effect your betting? If you're betting exotics, doesn't the presence of an imagined bias - effect your selections and bet amounts (as well as the ticket construct)?

[Shemp Howard]

Don't listen to the daily BS posted by trainers, especially those with a 3% winning percentage at bush tracks like Penn National.

[Stillriledup]

Don't listen to the daily BS posted by trainers, especially those with a 3% winning percentage at bush tracks like Penn National.

I disagree with this a bit, i would listen to any current trainer if he or she had a nugget of info about something that was a current event within their barn or something they knew about someone else's barn. Also, i would caution against trying to alienate such people from possibly being contributors down the line, you never know if someone you insulted (and they left because of it) would have posted a winning slice of info that led you to a winner (or kept you off a loser). Its better to be about winning money than proving a point, or embarrassing someone, none of that is going to get you the money thru the windows.

[thaskalos]

Along that line, do you map out all your plays, verticals and horizontals, before you start playing? Will you let track Bias (real or imagined) effect your betting? If you're betting exotics, doesn't the presence of an imagined bias - effect your selections and bet amounts (as well as the ticket construct)?
I was talking about win bets...which appear to be the most popular bets among the posters here. The exotics bets cannot possibly be made in the same amounts...as they must reflect the different "nature" of every race.

[Stillriledup]

Don't be fooled by a horse's bad last race, even if it appears inexcusable: The horse's connections are trying to cash bets too...and they are well aware of the attention that a sharp last race attracts. Learn to dig a little deeper, and watch your bottom line improve.

Do not allow yourself to get distracted while you are gambling: I cannot do better here than to quote Tom Ainslie, who wrote over 40 years ago: "Serious horse betting is a solitary activity. The more social it gets...the less profitable it becomes". It was true then...and it's even more true today.

Bet the same amount on all the races that you intend to play: I know...you are an experienced player, and you can distinguish your "best bets" from your regular ones. I thought I could too, but I was wrong...and I suspect that you are wrong as well. The sad truth is that we don't know where our winners will be coming from...and the biggest windfalls usually come from the plays that excite us the least. Bet the same amount every time...and save yourself the aggravation and the second-guessing.

Avoid making "action bets" at all costs: Yes...Andy Beyer wrote that there is nothing wrong with "insignificant" action bets, and even claimed that these action bets made him pay closer attention to the work before him. But Beyer said this at a time when we only had one track's races available to us for our day's wagering. In today's full-card simulcasting era, there is no place for action bets...even if they are relatively "insignificant". Put a few insignificant losses together...and they total a significant amount.


I think the "Same amount" stuff is not bad, but i feel that i want to be more flexible in 2015, i don't want to be "Restricted" as to how much i play. What if a 6-5 shot breaks thru the gate and runs off and its obvious they're going to jam that horse back in the gate and go, i think you have to double up your bets or make new bets tossing that favorite....you're obligated to make a much larger bet imo. Also, what if the fave is soaking wet and your 10-1 shot looks like a champ? You might want to be flexible so you can bet more.

What's your thoughts on that?

[banacek]

Bet the same amount on all the races that you intend to play:

It took me many years, but I have come to the same conclusion - and it has decreased my stress considerably.

Do you eventually make an adjustment if your bankroll increases or decreases significantly (say it doubles or halves) or just stay with the same wager? If you don't make an adjustment, how big a bankroll would you suggest? I generally use 50 times wager for win bets.

Thanks.

[thaskalos]

I think the "Same amount" stuff is not bad, but i feel that i want to be more flexible in 2015, i don't want to be "Restricted" as to how much i play. What if a 6-5 shot breaks thru the gate and runs off and its obvious they're going to jam that horse back in the gate and go, i think you have to double up your bets or make new bets tossing that favorite....you're obligated to make a much larger bet imo. Also, what if the fave is soaking wet and your 10-1 shot looks like a champ? You might want to be flexible so you can bet more.

What's your thoughts on that?

No...I am NEVER obligated to make a much larger bet. It is more important for me to be consistently disciplined, than it is for me to be occasionally brilliant.

[Stillriledup]

No...I am NEVER obligated to make a much larger bet. It is more important for me to be consistently disciplined, than it is for me to be occasionally brilliant.

Hmmm, i can't argue that you have wrong strategy, to each his own, having the discipline is never a bad thing.

[thaskalos]

It took me many years, but I have come to the same conclusion - and it has decreased my stress considerably.

Do you eventually make an adjustment if your bankroll increases or decreases significantly (say it doubles or halves) or just stay with the same wager? If you don't make an adjustment, how big a bankroll would you suggest? I generally use 50 times wager for win bets.

Thanks.

50 betting units for win bets is good...but I would still adjust the bankroll regularly, to reflect the changes that it undergoes. The bigger the bankroll, the more attention it deserves...because big bankrolls cannot be easily replaced.

I flat-bet...and I prefer 100 betting units.

[JJMartin]

I would definitely recommend flat betting on win bets. You can never determine your edge on individual bets as accurately as you could against a large sample.

[Stillriledup]

50 betting units for win bets is good...but I would still adjust the bankroll regularly, to reflect the changes that it undergoes. The bigger the bankroll, the more attention it deserves...because big bankrolls cannot be easily replaced.

Another question. If someone said they're going to take your advice and they said that they just want to make win bets and then asked if they should bet the exact same amount regardless of the win price. You would say?

I think that depends on the bankroll size.....if you somehow can get your bankroll up to 100k, you're not going to bet 1k on a 20-1, but you might bet 1k on an even money shot.

[banacek]

50 betting units for win bets is good...but I would still adjust the bankroll regularly, to reflect the changes that it undergoes. The bigger the bankroll, the more attention it deserves...because big bankrolls cannot be easily replaced.

I flat-bet...and I prefer 100 betting units.

Thanks..sounds very similar in style, but with even less stress :)

And in reference to being flexible to bet more, I used to do it, but have pretty well stopped. I started to be a little loose on when those special occasions occurred..so many weren't very special.

[thaskalos]

Another question. If someone said they're going to take your advice and they said that they just want to make win bets and then asked if they should bet the exact same amount regardless of the win price. You would say?

I think that depends on the bankroll size.....if you somehow can get your bankroll up to 100k, you're not going to bet 1k on a 20-1, but you might bet 1k on an even money shot.

I don't let the tote board decide my wagers, SRU. I don't circle 3-4 win contenders in a race...and then let the tote board decide for me whom to bet. To me...the "real" handicapping only BEGINS when the contenders are identified. I handicap the races that I play fully...and I know which horse I like best...which horse I like second-best...which horse I like 3rd-best...etc. And when I decide to bet...I bet the same amount every time. And that's what I recommend.

[Stillriledup]

I don't let the tote board decide my wagers, SRU. I don't circle 3-4 win contenders in a race...and then let the tote board decide for me whom to bet. To me...the "real" handicapping only BEGINS when the contenders are identified. I handicap the races that I play fully...and I know which horse I like best...which horse I like second-best...which horse I like 3rd-best...etc. And when I decide to bet...I bet the same amount every time. And that's what I recommend.

Let me clarify. Im not saying to let the tote decide, i'm saying that if you have a big bankroll, you might not want to stick 2k to win on a 20-1 shot, but 2k to win on a 1-1 won't change the odds all that much. 2k at 20-1 will crush the price, so you have to bet different amounts...that was what i was talking about.

[thaskalos]

Let me clarify. Im not saying to let the tote decide, i'm saying that if you have a big bankroll, you might not want to stick 2k to win on a 20-1 shot, but 2k to win on a 1-1 won't change the odds all that much. 2k at 20-1 will crush the price, so you have to bet different amounts...that was what i was talking about.
I am not good enough to spot prime bets at 20-1...so I don't have to worry about scenarios such as the one you depict. If I were...then I suppose that, yes, I would have to tone my bet down somewhat on the big longshots. :)

[pandy]

Don't be fooled by a horse's bad last race, even if it appears inexcusable: The horse's connections are trying to cash bets too...and they are well aware of the attention that a sharp last race attracts. Learn to dig a little deeper, and watch your bottom line improve.

Do not allow yourself to get distracted while you are gambling: I cannot do better here than to quote Tom Ainslie, who wrote over 40 years ago: "Serious horse betting is a solitary activity. The more social it gets...the less profitable it becomes". It was true then...and it's even more true today.

Bet the same amount on all the races that you intend to play: I know...you are an experienced player, and you can distinguish your "best bets" from your regular ones. I thought I could too, but I was wrong...and I suspect that you are wrong as well. The sad truth is that we don't know where our winners will be coming from...and the biggest windfalls usually come from the plays that excite us the least. Bet the same amount every time...and save yourself the aggravation and the second-guessing.

Avoid making "action bets" at all costs: Yes...Andy Beyer wrote that there is nothing wrong with "insignificant" action bets, and even claimed that these action bets made him pay closer attention to the work before him. But Beyer said this at a time when we only had one track's races available to us for our day's wagering. In today's full-card simulcasting era, there is no place for action bets...even if they are relatively "insignificant". Put a few insignificant losses together...and they total a significant amount.


Very good points.

[Wizard of Odds]

Only bet with a priori positive expected value:)

[Stillriledup]

Only bet with a priori positive expected value:)

My new favorite word

PRIORI!!! :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

Never let anyone talk you into, or out of, a bet. If you're a good handicapper your opinion is just as good as theirs (or better). If you're not so good, you might learn something from those losses, if you do your own work.

Never reject a good bet based on the live odds, unless those odds are too low for the risk you think is in play. Gladly accept odds that are higher than what you expected, if you have done a thorough job in your handicapping.

In other words, be your own player, and learn from your mistakes, if you actually made one. As Gus stated, we never know when our winners will hit, so assume they are all the same, and worth the same bet amount.

If you're a beginner, play on paper until you become thoroughly familiar with the game. Then start wagering with small bets and increase only when you prove that your game is good enough. If the higher bet amount results in poor results, drop back to where you were doing well. Sooner or later you will find where your "sweet spot" is, regarding wager amounts.

Try your best to keep your emotions under control, after wins or losses (we all have good and bad streaks but that shouldn't affect your approach), no highs and no lows. That middle ground will keep you consistent and disciplined.

[Stillriledup]

Never let anyone talk you into, or out of, a bet. If you're a good handicapper your opinion is just as good as theirs (or better). If you're not so good, you might learn something from those losses, if you do your own work.

Never reject a good bet based on the live odds, unless those odds are too low for the risk you think is in play. Gladly accept odds that are higher than what you expected, if you have done a thorough job in your handicapping.

In other words, be your own player, and learn from your mistakes, if you actually made one. As Gus stated, we never know when our winners will hit, so assume they are all the same, and worth the same bet amount.

If you're a beginner, play on paper until you become thoroughly familiar with the game. Then start wagering with small bets and increase only when you prove that your game is good enough. If the higher bet amount results in poor results, drop back to where you were doing well. Sooner or later you will find where your "sweet spot" is, regarding wager amounts.

Try your best to keep your emotions under control, after wins or losses (we all have good and bad streaks but that shouldn't affect your approach), no highs and no lows. That middle ground will keep you consistent and disciplined.

Very good post Ray.

I had a very wise man tell me very long ago to keep an "even keel" never get too high or too low, that's as good advice as i've ever gotten.

As far as being talked out of a bet, one of my mantras in 2015 is "stay flexible" so as far as being talked out of or into something, i have an open mind to be talked into altering an opinion. BUT, and here's the key with that, it has to be something concrete.....in other words, someone has to give me some kind of fact that i overlooked.....and if i decide that fact is something i did over look, i would reevaluate and then possibly change my mind....but i would never switch off a pick if someone just had a pick with no logic behind it.

[raybo]

Very good post Ray.

I had a very wise man tell me very long ago to keep an "even keel" never get too high or too low, that's as good advice as i've ever gotten.

As far as being talked out of a bet, one of my mantras in 2015 is "stay flexible" so as far as being talked out of or into something, i have an open mind to be talked into altering an opinion. BUT, and here's the key with that, it has to be something concrete.....in other words, someone has to give me some kind of fact that i overlooked.....and if i decide that fact is something i did over look, i would reevaluate and then possibly change my mind....but i would never switch off a pick if someone just had a pick with no logic behind it.

Some people are very good at justifying an opinion, they can make a case for almost any horse, in any race. If I have done a thorough job of handicapping, I find that it is much better to ignore everyone else, don't even listen to them. If you missed something, you missed something, but just because someone points something out doesn't make it the winner. Stick to your guns, and at the very most, pass the race if you're in doubt.

[Robert Fischer]

Have fun with a responsible bankroll.

That's basically it.
Enjoy yourself. Use your imagination. Have fun.

[dlivery]

I couldn't care less for the name it is just a name it could be a tatoo on the tongue will work for me 1234 is what the horse is doing not what the name is.

Jockeys Trainers Blah Blah all they want is some fame big deal.

The horse is running the race it is who ever in front and not be caught wins the race.

[biggestal99]

My one and only resolve this year is to bet on horses 3-1 or over, thats means passing on a lot of races.

Allan

[098poi]

I had to search for this but found it. Originally posted by thaskalos but worthy of a reminder.

"Discipline...it's the only God that wealth and power bow to. To the majority, it resembles a ball and chain that shackles; to the minority, it's a throne. To most, it's as elusive as a disappearing mist; to a few, it's their finest outer garment. The forefather of discipline is pain, adversity and failure. It is lessons learned and experiences that taught. It flies on wings of steel, an unalterable course that gives full meaning to that destination called life. Its pathways are as straight as an arrow. its impact is as sure as an arrow to the heart.

At its dawning, discipline is rooted in pain; yet, by the evening its reward is pleasure. Those who reject discipline, accept the momentary pleasure of being undisciplined, while not knowing that their pain arrives in the evening, remaining there as a constant companion.

Before you decide to gamble, go make an unassailable covenant with discipline. To do so will make you an unbeatable foe; the hunter, not the hunted; the stalker, not the prey...And know this! Bravado in the heart of a gambler without discipline is nothing more than an application for slavery...a resume submitted by the foolish."

Juel E. Anderson -- from the book...POKER, SEX & DYING


These words hang on my office wall...where I have admired them for over eight years. Live long and prosper, Juel E. Anderson...wherever you are. :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

I was talking about win bets...which appear to be the most popular bets among the posters here. The exotics bets cannot possibly be made in the same amounts...as they must reflect the different "nature" of every race.

I'm a bit surprised at that. Unless you are playing SA or the NYRA tracks, the handle is too susceptible to late money for win bets.

[Exotic1]

Thanks, 098poi.

[thaskalos]

I'm a bit surprised at that. Unless you are playing SA or the NYRA tracks, the handle is too susceptible to late money for win bets.

Well...the fields are often too small for exotic wagering...IMO. Win-betting isn't necessarily my cup of tea...but you have to dance to the music that the band plays.

[raybo]

I'm a bit surprised at that. Unless you are playing SA or the NYRA tracks, the handle is too susceptible to late money for win bets.

if you look at win bets as "cash flow", they make a lot of sense. My win betting is just cash support for the superfectas, so I look at my superfecta tickets as being free. There are ways of handling late money.

[ReplayRandall]

There are ways of handling late money.

Raybo, please expand on the various ways of handling late money...$$

[PhantomOnTour]

There are no rules

[raybo]

Raybo, please expand on the various ways of handling late money...$$

No thanks, I don't feel like getting grilled over a fire. I've mentioned the way I do it a few times here, and receive nothing but grief, even though it works fine for me. The best advice I can give you is do some serious thinking about "why" odds drop late, and factor that into a projection of where they are likely to drop to. That's all I'm going to say about it.

[HUSKER55]

I don't know if this is the place to post this but here goes. I had a minister tell me this years back.

Each of us is nothing but a ship in the sea of life. Part of us will always be underwater to support what is above the water. The question you have to answer is "how much".

[thaskalos]

I don't know if this is the place to post this but here goes. I had a minister tell me this years back.

Each of us is nothing but a ship in the sea of life. Part of us will always be underwater to support what is above the water. The question you have to answer is "how much".
If a minister said it, then it belongs in the religious thread.

[dnlgfnk]

I don't know if this is the place to post this but here goes. I had a minister tell me this years back.

Each of us is nothing but a ship in the sea of life. Part of us will always be underwater to support what is above the water. The question you have to answer is "how much".

Why not?

"A horseplayer's temperament will often influence his betting. Mr. D's political views--his convictions about the treachery and duplicity of the Communists--helped shape his philosophy of handicapping". (Andrew Beyer--"Picking Winners")

[cnollfan]

In a full-field sprint race that appears to set up for the closers, save a slot in the tri and super for the speed horses anyway.

[Robert Goren]

Try not to do anything that after the race is over that will having you saying "Boy, that was stupid!".

[lamboguy]

i am going to pay more attention in baby races to the horses that work together. and give more detailed ratings to horses coming out of particular races. and only play maiden and 2 life races.

and most importantly keep up my record that i am having so far this year, i have won all 4 days so far. last year i don't remember winning 2 days in a row

[sammy the sage]

I disagree with this a bit, i would listen to any current trainer if he or she had a nugget of info about something that was a current event within their barn or something they knew about someone else's barn. Also, i would caution against trying to alienate such people from possibly being contributors down the line, you never know if someone you insulted (and they left because of it) would have posted a winning slice of info that led you to a winner (or kept you off a loser). Its better to be about winning money than proving a point, or embarrassing someone, none of that is going to get you the money thru the windows.

DUH...this even after you QROTE rule #3 in THE opening post... :D :rolleyes:

[sammy the sage]

i am going to pay more attention in baby races to the horses that work together. and give more detailed ratings to horses coming out of particular races. and only play maiden and 2 life races.

and most importantly keep up my record that i am having so far this year, i have won all 4 days so far. last year i don't remember winning 2 days in a row

very nice...one must pay for and have time to research that...but INSIDE info is always THE best!!!! :jump: ;)

that said...most here or at track are NOT privy to THAT info...

my ONLY angle this year...will be to bet ONLY large figured/paying stakes races...and ONLY in sequences that have only THOSE in them...for example...Derby Day, BC days...Gold Cup...ect...

yes this narrows down my opportunities...but at least then...most of the time...they're ALL giving 110%...ie...the HUMAN side....and you NEED BOTH to win consistently....horse & human...despite wishy/washy OP's rule # 3...

and those are the ONLY true days you GET the stars lined up...w/out INSIDE info.... :ThmbUp:

[AlBundy33]

Learn how to make a win bet again.

I've fallen into the trap where because all the hype on pick fours and pick fives, I have all but forgotten how to bet on one horse to win.

[thaskalos]

Learn how to make a win bet again.

I've fallen into the trap where because all the hype on pick fours and pick fives, I have all but forgotten how to bet on one horse to win.

Have you forgotten how to BET on a horse to win...or how to PICK a single horse to bet? Betting a horse to win is easy; PICKING a single horse to bet on is where the difficulty lies...especially for those who are used to playing pick-4s and spreading out.

[Robert Fischer]

I could write several books on specifics, but I think 'general' rules would be a better contribution here.

1. Insight and Information = should be the basis for making a value bet. If you are attempting to advance beyond entertainment and luck, remember, INSIGHT is the basis for knowing more about a horse's chance than the public. What additional variable(s) (your edge) do you have that could explain a significant proportion of the variance in a horse's past performances, which is not already accounted for by the public odds (wisdom of crowds)?


2. Use Good Judgement = You see things better than the public, now you have to apply that insight in good way, using GOOD JUDGEMENT. Pass or play? Win? Exotics??
Know how to Choose well.
Most of life depends thereon. It needs good taste and correct judgment, for which neither intellect nor study suffices. To be choice, you must choose, and for this two things are needed:to be able to choose at all, and then to choose the best. There are many men of fecund and subtle mind, of keen judgment, of much learning, and of great observation who yet are at a loss when they come to choose. They always take the worst as if they had tried to go wrong. Thus this is one of the greatest gifts from above.


3. Be Fair and Reasonable = You have to have a good understanding of HOW MUCH a percentage of your bankroll you are willing to bet, and HOW MUCH you expect to potentially win back with each type of wager, in each scenario. You have to find a balance between greed and fear. Is this a jackpot? Is it a favorite to show?

4. Exercise Self Control = This game is not only difficult in terms of sheer odds, it is also a psychological challenge. Discipline is required to consistently perform the work to obtain valuable insights. This game and the gambling aspect also enacts powerful forces that will test your SELF CONTROL. "Chasing losses" is a a common example, where an otherwise sane individual temporarily loses his mind due to the psychological effects at work.
my_oVMDRklM

5. Find Strength in Adversity = Even when making consistently great bets, this game is going to be a 'roller coaster' ride. When you are losing, you can't allow your performance to drop off. Losing, and sustained ADVERSITY 'amplifies' the challenges against your willpower and self-control into a category of it's own. Your bankroll will dip. You will have losing days, and losing weeks.

ARE YOU UP TO THE CHALLENGE?!

[Magister Ludi]

1. Handicap handicappers, not horses.
2. Invest in overlays, not "winners".
3. Optimally size your investments.

#3 is, by far, the most important.

[raybo]

1. Handicap handicappers, not horses.
2. Invest in overlays, not "winners".
3. Optimally size your investments.

#3 is, by far, the most important.

Very good! But, #3 is useless unless you accomplish #1 and #2 first, and neither of those is easy.

[ReplayRandall]

1. Handicap handicappers, not horses.
2. Invest in overlays, not "winners".
3. Optimally size your investments.

#3 is, by far, the most important.


Total agreement, ML. I have always strived to be the best "bettor", rather than be the best handicapper. An expert bettor with average handicapping skills, is far superior to an expert handicapper with average betting skills.......

[AndyC]

Total agreement, ML. I have always strived to be the best "bettor", rather than be the best handicapper. An expert bettor with average handicapping skills, is far superior to an expert handicapper with average betting skills.......

To me handicapping is assessing a horse's chance of winning a race. If one were an average handicapper they would probably not be identifying too many overlays and no amount of expert betting skills will overcome a negative expectation.

On the other hand an expert handicapper will identify far more overlays and could probably still profit with average betting skills. Players with poor betting skills are probably doomed to failure in any event.

[raybo]

To me handicapping is assessing a horse's chance of winning a race. If one were an average handicapper they would probably not be identifying too many overlays and no amount of expert betting skills will overcome a negative expectation.

On the other hand an expert handicapper will identify far more overlays and could probably still profit with average betting skills. Players with poor betting skills are probably doomed to failure in any event.

Agreed, and any player who doesn't also possess consistency, patience, and discipline is also doomed.

[Cratos]

It has been said or inferred within this thread earlier, but I will repeat:
a) Independent Thinking
b)Mentally Toughness
c) Discipline
d) Patience
are valuable attributes to the horseplayer/gambler.

[Stillriledup]

DUH...this even after you QROTE rule #3 in THE opening post... :D :rolleyes:

Not the same. In Rule 3 i was essentially talking about jocks, trainers and owners and how its a bad idea to give them too much credit and stick with "handicapping horses". Its far different than getting a snippet of info from a human that can help you in the handicapping process.

[Stillriledup]

It has been said or inferred within this thread earlier, but I will repeat:
a) Independent Thinking
b)Mentally Toughness
c) Discipline
d) Patience
are valuable attributes to the horseplayer/gambler.

Love these 4 things, in agreement totally.

Another thing that's beneficial to have is you sort of have to hate action. You can't "love gambling" because that gets in the way, you need to have a certain mental outlook, horse betting isn't a game for people who have the 'gambling gene' because you need that discipline, its not something everyone has or can even acquire.

[Robert Fischer]

1. Handicap handicappers, not horses.
2. Invest in overlays, not "winners".
3. Optimally size your investments.

#3 is, by far, the most important.

Nice list.

[Stillriledup]

The heat of the summer is baking some of our brains, lets wade into the cool waters and get a step back to reality and a refresher course on some do's and dont's.

[EMD4ME]

The heat of the summer is baking some of our brains, lets wade into the cool waters and get a step back to reality and a refresher course on some do's and dont's.

Recognize bad racing luck and brush if off. If you're making the right plays and coming real close to excellent profit on wagers AND you just had some bad racing luck, turn the page and move on. Don't miss crushing the next play because of focusing on what happened.

I've had about 20 horses I needed for $5000-$20,000 LOSE due to a bad ride, unusual situation in the last 3 months. Without tracking, I'd say 17 won in their next start. Annoying but brush it off IF there was no faulty handicapping. Thankfully I had some play backs who lost again with a bad ride but there wasn't a pick 5 for 20,000 on the line.

Finally, make sure you know why you lost a race. Was it an unplayable race? Did you force it? What happened in the race that changed things? Was it forecastable? Recognize weaknesses, not just strengths.

[Kash$]

Recognize bad racing luck and brush if off. If you're making the right plays and coming real close to excellent profit on wagers AND you just had some bad racing luck, turn the page and move on. Don't miss crushing the next play because of focusing on what happened.

I've had about 20 horses I needed for $5000-$20,000 LOSE due to a bad ride, unusual situation in the last 3 months. Without tracking, I'd say 17 won in their next start. Annoying but brush it off IF there was no faulty handicapping. Thankfully I had some play backs who lost again with a bad ride but there wasn't a pick 5 for 20,000 on the line.

Finally, make sure you know why you lost a race. Was it an unplayable race? Did you force it? What happened in the race that changed things? Was it forecastable? Recognize weaknesses, not just strengths.


Dont bet any race where both Ortiz brothers are riding...serious

[EMD4ME]

Dont bet any race where both Ortiz brothers are riding...serious

That's a good situation to avoid.

There should be a rule against 2 brothers running in the same race.

[Kash$]

[QUOTE=EMD4ME]That's a good situation to avoid.

There should be a rule against 2 brothers running in the same race.[/QUOTE

Especially now that football season is around the corner😃

[EMD4ME]

[QUOTE=EMD4ME]That's a good situation to avoid.

There should be a rule against 2 brothers running in the same race.[/QUOTE

Especially now that football season is around the corner😃


Problem is, what circuit do you move on to?

[Kash$]

[QUOTE=Kash$]


Problem is, what circuit do you move on to?

Less races and don't bet football sundays..

[appistappis]

i am going to pay more attention in baby races to the horses that work together. and give more detailed ratings to horses coming out of particular races. and only play maiden and 2 life races.

and most importantly keep up my record that i am having so far this year, i have won all 4 days so far. last year i don't remember winning 2 days in a row

I wrote here some time ago that 99% of my play goes to maiden and n2l and I have become profitable since.

[appistappis]

Dont bet any race where both Ortiz brothers are riding...serious

add don't bet any race where two englehart's are trainers.

[ultracapper]

I wrote here some time ago that 99% of my play goes to maiden and n2l and I have become profitable since.

Same here. These conditions, for older horses, make up all of my action.

[no breathalyzer]

add don't bet any race where two englehart's are trainers.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Harvhorse]

My number one rule is that the price is every thing, you can not have the best jockey, trainer and horse and get a good price. If you like a horse and the price is right, back your conviction no matter what. Pass when every one likes the same horses you do, bet when the public does not like what you like.

[pandy]

My number one rule is that the price is every thing, you can not have the best jockey, trainer and horse and get a good price. If you like a horse and the price is right, back your conviction no matter what. Pass when every one likes the same horses you do, bet when the public does not like what you like.

Good advice.