2014 Results long post

[zico20]

Here is a copy and paste from my BETPTC account.

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# OF BETS WAGERED PAYOFF REWARDS EARNED PROFIT/(LOSS)
772 $11,691.80 $12,359.70 $474.62 $1,142.52

I started betting in July with them when they got the NYRA signal. For the first 6 months of the year I went to Fairmount and bet at the track. My betting at the track resulted in a profit of around 2800 bucks. That was in large part due to hitting the super on the Preakness 10 times that paid 347 bucks. That was one of the very few races that I picked the four horses in exact order that paid the best way possible. It was also one of the reasons why I picked CC over ROC in the Belmont. I was hoping they would run 1-2 again. I know there is no way to prove I hit the Preakness since I was at the track but that was my biggest score of the year. Here is a copy and past from my biggest score on my ADW.

12/07/2014 2:20 PM Bet LQD 5 SU $40.00 4/6/3+5/3+5 $3.20 $80.00 $2,564.00

If anyone would like me to send you a complete list of all my wins on my ADW to confirm I didn't make this all up please PM and I will do so. The above race can be confirmed by Stillrilledup, who I PM over the race.

None of the above included results from Fairmount Park. That is always a separate betting account.

Now some general rambling. This could have been a great year if I had won some photos. I estimate I lost 33,000 in photos. If I had won half of those photos I would have had another 16,000. Just an unlucky year. Candy Boy and Goldencents alone cost me close to 7000 with their nose losses. I wasn't involved in one inquiry all year that I can remember. That is very unusual.

I bet against the big favorite (1-1 OR LESS) I think about 55 times. The favorite won all but three of those. One broke down and one stumbled badly coming out of the gate. I used to be able to find the big favorite that would lose about 1 out of 4 times. Not anymore. I guess I should stop betting against the big favorite. It cost me a ton of money this year.

Another black mark was when the two favorites were about the same odds and I couldn't decide between the two. This happened about 20 times and I picked the wrong one all but once. I need to do a better job of picking the right one.

A positive note was that I made 22 win bets (200-600 bucks) and won all but two of them. I don't bet much to win but I was spot on when I did bet to win. The average payout was around 3.40. So a nice profit there.

I am looking forward to a good year in 2015. There is one big problem that could be on the horizon. Hernandez I am sure won't be back at Fairmount. After being the leading jock for 7 years it was easy to handicap Fairmount. This may all change this coming meet.

Good luck to all in 2015! Happy New Year!

[lamboguy]

i am glad someone took home the shurbert. i got destroyed this year, and i thought i was good. obviously i will have to re-evaluate

[zico20]

i am glad someone took home the shurbert. i got destroyed this year, and i thought i was good. obviously i will have to re-evaluate

I started posting on this site around June 1st. I told everybody back then I was the worst handicapper on this site. And I am! I am very humble in knowing my limitations. If we were to run a contest picking the winner in a 12 horse field with the favorite at least 2-1 or higher I would come in dead last EVERY single time. I just happen to specialize in certain types of races. I have been doing it like this for almost 25 years.

Matt Caruthers on TVG always says this is a very tough game. Yes it is if you try to hit races that are very difficult. I avoid those races like the plague. Most of the times when I lose I am very close to winning. A couple more covers or adding another horse to the super would get me most if not all my money back on a lot of the races. There are exceptions like the Secret Circle race last week where I completely blew it. That was embarrassing to make that pick on this board. But look at the Pasco Stakes the same day. That was an easy race to make money betting the super that paid a very generous 40 bucks.

I have no doubt you can turn a profit if you re-evaluate your betting strategy. Remember, picking the horses is only half the battle. The other half is making the right bet. It took me a long time to start making the right bets with smart covers since like I said I very rarely pick it in the order it will come in. The Pasco stakes I would have had the super 40 times had the 2 run third and not the 6. Yes, I had it 20 times with the 6 3rd but if I like the 6 3rd I make another 800 bucks. There is always room for improvement.