Let's discuss the Jerome S.

[letswastemoney]

I'm supposed to handicap this race for a website.

Here are the BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AQU&race=8&param1=243&param2=648&param3=1047800)

At first glance, it looks hard. El Kabeir is the favorite, but he's an early speed type parked on the outside in post :9: in a two-turn route. Then again, Calvin Borel is probably going to attempt to clear the field quickly no matter if interference occurs.

The rest of the field has some questionable class. I'm interested in Royal Burgh, Tencendur, Ostrolenka and General Bellamy. But, I'm not deciding right now.

What do you think?

[Robert Fischer]

thoughts on the field

Mini Cosmo - he's a good 'barometer' for this race. Solid horse, gets a good post, but he's not a stakes horse. He can hit the board in a weak Jerome.

Royal Burgh - Unknown quality. Connections liked him enough to go Kee-Rem-Jer in his first 3 starts. Hasn't really impressed me, but could do just about anything here.

Tencendur - Well thought of and talented, but his finish in debut was very poor. I suppose you could give him more chances.

Ostrolenka - I'm willing to excuse his Remsen. Steps down in class here, and gets a better post.

Now We Are Free - His dramatic finish last time may have been his rival flattening. Not a terrible horse.

General Bellamy - They had to put him on the lead to break maiden. Not a terrible horse. Probably needs a good trip.

Ackeret - A light went on last time. Still lugs in in the stretch. Interesting long-shot.

Nasa - Solid racehorse. Being by Smarty Jones, he is popular at Philly.

El Kabeir - May be the best in the race. Comes off a Graded Stakes win with a great ride in the KyJC. May have to negotiate the first turn.

[Appy]

I think I'm not deciding now either! :confused:

A quick look at running lines appears to reveal a well matched field for a contentious race. Looks like fun.
I'll get back to you on this one. Right now I've got to get ready to bang this gong.
Appy New Year. :20: :15:
:D

[ReplayRandall]

I believe this a make or break race for Ostrolenka. Simply can't forgive another mediocre performance after the Remsen. Horse was not on any opening KD future boards until Nov. Money has been put up, now is the time for this one to move forward......

[letswastemoney]

After looking over the TimeformUS PPs hoping for a better answer, I think I'm going to recommend in my article to skip the race.

Not enough public handicappers recommend skipping races these days.

[Spiderman]

Tough to single any. My process of elimination has reduced contenders list to:

:1: Mini Cosmo
:5: Now We Are Free
:6: General Bellamy
:7: Ackeret

If field remains intact, cannot recommend any of the front running types. Weather forecast is for some rain in late afternoon which may be a factor if it is more than "some".

Will make a determination after scratches are announced.

[Valuist]

Didn't Smarty Jones invade from Philly/Parx off a win in the Nursery to win a stakes for Servis over the inner dirt? Deja vu?

[Wiley]

Didn't Smarty Jones invade from Philly/Parx off a win in the Nursery to win a stakes for Servis over the inner dirt? Deja vu?
Yeah Smarty won it when it was the Count Fleet.
Sire of Nasa too.

Smarty was more brilliant looking coming in, but I assume Servis likes this one.

Seattle Slew and Alydar on the bottom side looks like he should be solid for added distance here, though his successful full brother Central Intelligence looked like a sprinter/miler type.

Wonder if he also goes the Oaklawn route from here if he runs well?

[Valuist]

Yeah Smarty won it when it was the Count Fleet.
Sire of Nasa too.

Smarty was more brilliant looking coming in, but I assume Servis likes this one.

Seattle Slew and Alydar on the bottom side looks like he should be solid for added distance here, though his successful full brother Central Intelligence looked like a sprinter/miler type.

Wonder if he also goes the Oaklawn route from here if he runs well?

He had a division in Hot Springs in recent years so I would have to think he'd go that route (no pun intended).

[zico20]

I looked this race over and the :9: is heads and shoulders better than everyone else. If I was going to bet against him I would want at least 10-1. The rest appear at this point in their development to be allowance horses at best. But don't expect the 9 to be anywhere on Derby day. He clearly has distance limitations out of Scat Daddy.

It looks like you could put the other 8 names in a basket and pull out a number and play that one behind the 9. They all suck for a GR 3 race. It wouldn't surprise me who ran 2nd.

But remember, this is New York in the winter. We just witnessed Belle Gallantey run off the board against a bunch of overmatched horses in a cheap stake race.

One last thing the :9: will be under even money. How the guy can put him on the board at 2-1 is beyond me.

[letswastemoney]

Here is my analysis.

https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/10843/jerome-stakes.html

To summarize, I picked :9: El Kabeir, with :7: Ackeret and :8: Nasa as other options. Ackeret broke 100 on the TimeformUS scale, but it was in a sprint. His sire was a sprinter, but his dam broke her maiden in a route so he MIGHT be okay.

But, I also recommended to skip.

Good luck to those playing the Jerome with real money!

[cj]

In Rudy I trust, going with Ackeret. I think El Kabeir is decent but overrated and don't care for Ostrolenka at all.

[clemkadiddle]

I ran this race out on my pace model. Ackeret had a freakish race in his most recent start, racking up 160 pace points by the time he hit the 5/8ths...jogged out from that point. I don't believe that this performance will be repeated, but this type of speed inside El Kabeir poses a problem for him.

Moreover, El Kabeir only scored 116 pace points at the 3/4 mark in his most recent and jogged meaninglessly from that point, only getting just a hair better than 13 seconds per furlong in the last segment.

The horse to beat mathematically is Nasa, scoring 157 pace points at the 3/4 mark in his most recent, with jogging just over 13.2 seconds in his last furlong. Still, the power exhibited in this race should put him as the one to beat.

As for looking at El Kabeir's 2nd and 3rd race back, they are both similar to each other. In the 2nd race back, he scores 136 pace points to the 3/4 mark; in the 3rd race back, he scores 139. This still doesn't get close to Nasa's most recent numbers.

Ostrolenka...if given an excuse in the Remsen...one must refer to his 2nd race back. I have him at 135 pace points to the 3/4 mark. He does show a tendency to keep competing in the last segment, finishing out in 158 points for the total race. This puts him as the 2nd choice behind Nasa.

[zico20]

Here is my analysis.

https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/10843/jerome-stakes.html

To summarize, I picked :9: El Kabeir, with :7: Ackeret and :8: Nasa as other options. Ackeret broke 100 on the TimeformUS scale, but it was in a sprint. His sire was a sprinter, but his dam broke her maiden in a route so he MIGHT be okay.

But, I also recommended to skip.

Good luck to those playing the Jerome with real money!

While I am sticking to my opinion that they all suck behind the :9: , is anybody who is playing the :7: even the least bit concerned that his best race was on an off track, plus the fact that his only race in stakes company was pathetic. I still think the maiden has as good a shot as any to run 2nd.

[Appy]

Simulation result:

[Spiderman]

I ran this race out on my pace model. Ackeret had a freakish race in his most recent start, racking up 160 pace points by the time he hit the 5/8ths...jogged out from that point. I don't believe that this performance will be repeated, but this type of speed inside El Kabeir poses a problem for him.

Moreover, El Kabeir only scored 116 pace points at the 3/4 mark in his most recent and jogged meaninglessly from that point, only getting just a hair better than 13 seconds per furlong in the last segment.

The horse to beat mathematically is Nasa, scoring 157 pace points at the 3/4 mark in his most recent, with jogging just over 13.2 seconds in his last furlong. Still, the power exhibited in this race should put him as the one to beat.

As for looking at El Kabeir's 2nd and 3rd race back, they are both similar to each other. In the 2nd race back, he scores 136 pace points to the 3/4 mark; in the 3rd race back, he scores 139. This still doesn't get close to Nasa's most recent numbers.

Ostrolenka...if given an excuse in the Remsen...one must refer to his 2nd race back. I have him at 135 pace points to the 3/4 mark. He does show a tendency to keep competing in the last segment, finishing out in 158 points for the total race. This puts him as the 2nd choice behind Nasa.

Agree with your pace analysis and left front runners out of consideration for win. I've moved Nasa into contenders list off his good move at PARX on 16Nov.

Weather may be a factor. Storm notice is now forecast to be around noon.

[raybo]

Here are my thoughts posted on my forum, but I will not be betting this race:

This Saturday is the first Derby qualifier, the Jerome Stakes G3 at Aqueduct, going 1m70 on the inner dirt. It's a nice field of young 3 year olds with several that could improve dramatically, as these babies frequently do early in the year.

That being said, I just don't see much problem with the probable favorite, 9 El Kabeir, jumping out front and holding on for the win. He is an E5 run style and early speed points horse, and has the best high velocities for FR1 and FR2.

There are a few possibilities that could make the favorite's job harder. There are 3 horses who could contest the pace early and possibly force El Kabeir into running too fast early. They are: 4 Ostrolenka (E/P4), 6 General Bellamy (E/P3), and 8 Nasa (E/P4). 8 Nasa seems to be the kicker here, as he has shown some decent early speed at 7f and under. If he gets the "go" sign, he could fight it out early with El Kabeir (and maybe others as well).

With these young horses there is always the possibility of some weird things happening, but we can't predict those things (unless we know something others don't know), so while early pace often defines races, in these baby races anything can happen. As a result, I think I'll go with our "Class" rankings for my contenders.

Here is the ranked order of the "Class" horses, and their run style/ESPs and M/L odds:

9 El Kabeir (E5 - 2/1)
4 Ostrolenka (E/P4 - 7/2)
6 General Bellamy (E/P3 - 12/1)
8 Nasa (E/P4 - 8/1)

Good luck!!

[sammy the sage]

my thoughts...slopfest...very bad..if Aqua..don't cancel..maybe you get 2/3rds of the field...take fastest early w/best mud/off breeding...

guess what...didn't even look at the pp's...just my 2 cents..

[the little guy]

Yeah, that possible quarter of an inch of rain by nightfall has us shaking in our boots.

I guess a bad weather opinion is better than a bad horse opinion.

[Stillriledup]

In Rudy I trust, going with Ackeret. I think El Kabeir is decent but overrated and don't care for Ostrolenka at all.

Trusting Rudy these days can put you in the poorhouse. But, you know Rudy, he will be a 40 pct trainer again at some point, it goes like that with him, very streaky.

[ReplayRandall]

Trusting Rudy these days can put you in the poorhouse. But, you know Rudy, he will be a 40 pct trainer again at some point, it goes like that with him, very streaky.


I like the fact that Rudy will always LOSE at least 60% of his starts. Trainers are just like bettors, they lose more races than they win. I love the prices I get when I bet against trainers of his type, and my winning pay-offs more than make up for the losers, and then some........BTW, I lost in 2014; can't win every year ya know..:cool:

[snickster]

#9 looks obviously best on paper. I like the #1 Mini Cosmos a little. He ran a real even 6 1/2F race basically 1- 3/4 length behind all the way around in same race as Nasa came out of at Parx. That evenly run race is a good sign that he will do well in a longer distance stretchout, and appears to be a better horse than Nasa who is a pretty good horse. There is not that much to beat in the race except for the #9 anyway.

Exacta Box 1-9

[taxicab]

Reviewing the runners:

Mini Cosmo: Maybe the only one in here that might go down the Derby trail.
He's definitely a router and is still figuring things out.
With more two turn experience he'll go forward.
He's probably much better off the pace,so I wouldn't expect him nearly as close up as he was in his last.

Royal Burgh: He was very difficult to ride in his last,he looked green in a bad way.

Ostrolenka: His trip wasn't as bad as some think. I hated the way he was going in the lane.

Now We Are Free: He ran into a contested pace turning in a blue chip race,not the worst stab in the world.

General Bellamy: I don't trust horses that win benefitting from huge track biases.

Ackeret: He's not the best gate horse.....no clue if he can route.
You can bet Ortiz will be whipping him left handed in the lane,this horse has a bad habit of going hard for the rail.

Nasa: Added fronts in his last(that might of been due to the track condition) in a much more focused try.He sure acts like a route horse,he might be further along than the rail horse for the time being.

El Kabeir: He's a really small horse who will be a sprinter down the road.He can get away with a mile or so for now,but not later on.He's naturally quick and very athletic.This horse is nimble and really good on turns, so Borel will figure out how to make that work to his advantage.Easily the quickest in here,a speed friendly oval would make him double tough.

Cool betting race....if I have to pick one I'll pick Nasa.
On the P-3/4 I'll carry :1: :5: :8: :9:

[Robert Fischer]

I studied the race, but I can't figure it out.
A lot of times you look at a race like this, and you have 5 horses with potential, and none of that materializes. You over-think their potential and you just have the two classiest speeds, the :4: and the :9: grind along on the lead and one of those two wins...

I can't bet this race. If there's a horse that I am rooting for as a derby fan, it would be Ackeret or Royal Burgh.

Ackeret looked like the Parx first level 2yo allowance version of Shared Belief last time, for whatever that's worth. Although I don't expect it, if he somehow runs that way in a route vs. better horses, at least the 17 derby points would be going somewhere.

Royal Burgh did all the right things in debut. I thought that race was better than the speed figures. This horse looks like he will improve for a few more races and eventually you will not even have any doubt that he's better than Ostrolenka. Maybe he does it today, but I expect more of a chasing performance.

:4::9::2::8:

[PhantomOnTour]

Borel off El Kabeir, Chucky Lopez on.

If I can get that ML of 8-1 on Nasa, he's my play.
Mini Cosmos is interesting also

[raybo]

Borel off El Kabeir, Chucky Lopez on.

If I can get that ML of 8-1 on Nasa, he's my play.
Mini Cosmos is interesting also

The jockey change should make his odds a little more palatable. The only instructions the jockey needs is, get the lead as soon as you can, but don't kill the horse doing it.

[PhantomOnTour]

The jockey change should make his odds a little more palatable. The only instructions the jockey needs is, get the lead as soon as you can, but don't kill the horse doing it.
As stated earlier by you and some others, the #9 is the fastest to the 1st call by a fairly comfortable margin.
That may be all she wrote, but the value lies elsewhere for me...not sure I'll even bet this race.

[Robert Fischer]

win bet on :4: @ 5-2 or greater (currently 7-2)

Good physical condition today on the track. You get the slight underlay on the favorite to work with, I think you lean 'logical', and Ostrolenka's appearance seals the deal.

[Robert Fischer]

Nope. Had every opportunity after an energetic start, but he ran like he looked when winning the Sleepy Hollow. Weak.

El Kabeir too classy for these, even from the outside draw.

[Shemp Howard]

Nope. Had every opportunity after an energetic start, but he ran like he looked when winning the Sleepy Hollow. Weak.

El Kabeir too classy for these, even from the outside draw.

Not the best of trips for sure, yet drew off comfortably best.

[raybo]

The exacta and trifecta paid more than I thought they would, superfecta paid ok but a little lower than I like to bet into. Unfortunately, I didn't bet the race, or would have had the super ($279.50 for $1 base, my ticket would have cost me $27) as the 7 would certainly have been on my 4th line.

[raybo]

Not the best of trips for sure, yet drew off comfortably best.

That was a pretty good job of riding him. He didn't rush to the front, which is what I was concerned about. He ran little longer, staying outside, but was definitely the best of this bunch. Fractions were slower than they figured to be, almost like nobody really wanted the lead. Oh well, that's racing.

[cj]

98 TimeformUS Speed Figure for El Keibar, which is a slight new top for him. Considering the trip he had, that is impressive in my opinion.

[raybo]

98 TimeformUS Speed Figure for El Keibar, which is a slight new top for him. Considering the trip he had, that is impressive in my opinion.

I'm assuming the track was running a bit slow all day? Haven't looked at the rest of the card.

[cj]

I'm assuming the track was running a bit slow all day? Haven't looked at the rest of the card.

Yes, first four races were REALLY slow, then rain came and it sped up some, but was still slow.

[Tom]

He ran further than all but one. Much the best yesterday.

[raybo]

He ran further than all but one. Much the best yesterday.

Agree, IMO, you had a tough decision to make in this race. Either accept the smaller prices with him on top, or pass. He looked the best by quite a bit, and there was no reason to think that he wouldn't run well, except for the outside post. And, if you thought the track was running slow, there really wasn't much doubt that the pace would not be too fast to compromise him. He (and the jockey) ran well within himself the entire way, even after the not so good break from the gate.