Two Ice Cold Exactas Wed

[zico20]

Lets end the year with a couple of winners for everyone! Here is a phrase from the movie Independence Day.

"What do you say we try this again. Yes, but this time without the oops."

Back on Dec 13th I predicted an ice cold exacta 1 and 12. Vivian Bling over Wind Chill Factor. The cover was for them to be flip flopped just in case. Vivian Bling was the big favorite and lost the two hole to a 99-1 piece of crap. The flip exacta was paying 27 bucks and I would have had it 20 times. Well, they are running Wednesday in the first. This time I like Wind Chill Factor to beat Vivian Bling. Bet :5: :7: cold. I like the :1: a lot for 3rd in here. I think she will keep running and should be in the tri or super.

So, lets try this again but this time without the oops!

Also, unfortunately going off at the EXACT same time, boy there is a surprise, is the other race I like. This may be the easiest exacta of the year. Of course it is only going to pay 4 bucks but it looks like a sure thing. That is the 2nd at Hawthorne. The play is :5: :4: cold. I wish I liked a 3rd horse for the trifecta but I really don't. The obvious horse is the :1: but I hate horses that turn to a walk in the stretch. The :1: six races in a row has crawled home but appears the next best of a pathetic bunch. This race reminds me of the Delaware race I gave out this summer. That was an easy exacta that I had in the wrong order. Lets hope I nail them right tomorrow.

[EMD4ME]

Good luck. We know the second track is hawthorne. What's the first track?

[zico20]

Good luck. We know the second track is hawthorne. What's the first track?

Fairgrounds. Sorry about that.

[Stillriledup]

I didnt like that Vivian horse last time at 4-5, but missed the exacta in there as some slug ran 2nd.

Its probably a good bet that the winner is going to win, however, 2 things about the 7.

1) She lost to a 99-1 shot last time....which means she could lose to anyone, even horses in here who look like crap.
2) i'm never really a fan of one dimensional speed horses to complete exactas. if she sets the pace and the winner battles her into the ground and pulls away in the lane, i'm not really too excited to have to worry about that speed horse who got passed to hold 2nd.

Now, i'm not endorsing anyone other than the 5 to win and the 7 to be 2nd, but just be careful, the 7's "Style" isn't something you want when you need that horse to hold 2nd after the hot favorite crushes her turning for home.

[zico20]

I didnt like that Vivian horse last time at 4-5, but missed the exacta in there as some slug ran 2nd.

Its probably a good bet that the winner is going to win, however, 2 things about the 7.

1) She lost to a 99-1 shot last time....which means she could lose to anyone, even horses in here who look like crap.
2) i'm never really a fan of one dimensional speed horses to complete exactas. if she sets the pace and the winner battles her into the ground and pulls away in the lane, i'm not really too excited to have to worry about that speed horse who got passed to hold 2nd.

Now, i'm not endorsing anyone other than the 5 to win and the 7 to be 2nd, but just be careful, the 7's "Style" isn't something you want when you need that horse to hold 2nd after the hot favorite crushes her turning for home.

I agree completely with what you said. I hate betting a front runner to hold second. Here is a hypothetical cover.

Say you bet a 200 exacta 5-7 that will pay 7.00 bucks. You could play a 20 trifecta 5-1-7 that would pay 25.00 to break even. Then you could play a 10 super 5-1-3,4-7. That would pay at least 50 to break even. A 240 bet and as long as the 7 hits the super, which she all but should, the end result is a profit of 460 or a break even. I really only think the 1 has a chance to be second and playing the super gives a little extra cover. The 2 and 6 really suck, IMO. I really don't care for the 3 that much. She is still a maiden after 4 starts. A different cover could be 5 with 1,4 with 1,4 with 7. That may make more sense.

Now, I am not saying this is the amounts I am going to bet, anybody could play this ticket with a much lower total amount. I don't see the 5 losing, which makes this bet a smart one.

[EMD4ME]

I agree. Don't like speeds for 2nd normally, with certain exceptions. The Hawthorne exacta looks solid but there are firsters in there.... which scares me.

Good luck though, remember the Delaware race. You do pick good races to find something solid to play. Nothing wrong with doubling up $, especially if you're 75% to win.

[zico20]

I agree. Don't like speeds for 2nd normally, with certain exceptions. The Hawthorne exacta looks solid but there are firsters in there.... which scares me.

Good luck though, remember the Delaware race. You do pick good races to find something solid to play. Nothing wrong with doubling up $, especially if you're 75% to win.

Firsters always scare me too. But both of them have poor trainers. The trainer on the 2 has hardly trained a horse in his life it appears. The 7 has Gabe Retana, possibly the worst trainer of all time. Also, the work out patterns on both are really bad. It looks to easy. As long as we are talking cold exactas, how about the 5th at Hawthorne. It only looks like the 1 and 4. The 2,3,6,7,8 are horrendous. The 5 has a little back class but that last race was awful.

In the 5th, how about a 4-1 cold exacta with a 4-5-1 trifecta cover to get your money back.

[EMD4ME]

Good chance those 2 run 1-2. It's not a track I normally follow, so I can't speak from certainty (don't know biases, trip notes etc.)

[zico20]

Good chance those 2 run 1-2. It's not a track I normally follow, so I can't speak from certainty (don't know biases, trip notes etc.)

They really should run 1-2 in the 5th. The problem is that it won't pay much and boxing them won't bring about a decent return. You just got to pick the right one on top and hope your right. The :4: if she runs back to that race two back will win. She is a beaten heavy favorite 2 races in a row. The cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs should make her a winner. At 6 1/2 the :1: would have been my pick.

[Stillriledup]

Firsters always scare me too. But both of them have poor trainers. The trainer on the 2 has hardly trained a horse in his life it appears. The 7 has Gabe Retana, possibly the worst trainer of all time. Also, the work out patterns on both are really bad. It looks to easy. As long as we are talking cold exactas, how about the 5th at Hawthorne. It only looks like the 1 and 4. The 2,3,6,7,8 are horrendous. The 5 has a little back class but that last race was awful.

In the 5th, how about a 4-1 cold exacta with a 4-5-1 trifecta cover to get your money back.

The 7 should run for purse money only, to protect the public. At what point do you revoke Retana's license for conduct detrimental to racing? :D

The 5 will have a minus show bet on her, how much is anyone's guess.