San Antonio.....which heavyweight is favored ?

[taxicab]

The big three are all pointing to the San Antonio at 9 furlongs on 2/7 @ SA.
I doubt the field will be very large(after all, who's going to want to tackle those dudes ?).
But as an interesting sidebar....
Which one of the three stars will go off favored ?
And which horse will be the longest price of the three ?

Bayern
California Chrome
Shared Belief

I have no idea who the public will settle on.

[Stillriledup]

That would be some race if we can get all 3 to the post. A lot will hinge on if Bayern is lone speed or not. If B is lone speed, he will be favored, but all 3 will be very close in prices, but the pace profile will matter a lot.

Would love to see an uncoupled Dorfer in there with speed. ;)

[classhandicapper]

I think an interesting aspect to the race is that it's 9F not 10F.

Most people are going to assume that 9F will help Bayern (and for good reason), but I think CA Chrome may also be a bit better at 9F. I thought he may have had a better turn of foot early in the year before stretching out.

What a great race if they can pull it off.

[zico20]

Lets hope they can find at least three more horses so the race can have a super. I would actually like this race to have 10 horses since we know who is going to run 1-2-3. Find the 4th horse and the super would pay nice in a large field.

[cutchemist42]

Bayern, but I need to know who the other hypothetical speed horse is.

[letswastemoney]

Shared Belief. He's the most loved horse in training.

[cj]

Shared Belief will be favored slightly over Chrome, Bayern third choice...if the race actually happens.

[Robert Fischer]

Should add a million dollar purse bonus, and Grade I status to the San Antonio if this is the case.

Where's Don King when you need him?

[Exotic1]

Shared Belief will be favored slightly over Chrome, Bayern third choice...if the race actually happens.


Just for fun...

Three horse race, who's the probable winner and what is the most probable exacta? I'll assume post position doesn't factor in.

[cj]

Just for fun...

Three horse race, who's the probable winner and what is the most probable exacta? I'll assume post position doesn't factor in.

Same order as the odds in my opinion. Chrome would be forced to press earlier, probably put Bayern away, weakens late.

[RXB]

Should add a million dollar purse bonus, and Grade I status to the San Antonio if this is the case.

Where's Don King when you need him?

They already have a $1 million race, the following month. Unfortunately, Dubai beckons with its $10 million.

Still, isn't it nice that this race at least offers a 500k purse, and that it's open to all 4YO+ horses? They dumped the San Fernando last year and the Strub this year, so all that's needed for a complete victory of good sense is to change the conditions from 3YO to 3+ for the Malibu (and the La Brea, for that matter too).

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=91338&highlight=strub

[Some_One]

a group one 4yr old only race? What more proof would you need then that there are way too many G1's in US racing.

[Exotic1]

Same order as the odds in my opinion. Chrome would be forced to press earlier, probably put Bayern away, weakens late.

Interesting. I thought Bayern could scoot away at 1 1/8.

[bisket]

This was a 3 race series for 3 and 4 year olds, that lead to the SA handicap. It was a progression of 7 furs Da Malibu, 1 1/16 miles Antonio, and Da Strub at 1 1/8 miles. At one time it was 7 furs, 1 1/8 mile to 1 1/4 mile for Da Strub. Prior to the Breeders Cup the idea was to attract the Triple Crown field from the previous year. It was a way for those horse to make some cash before the open handicap season started. The races aren't as important anymore because of the Cup, but it's kind of neat the top 3 runners have decided to race. I'm thinking if you see all 3 in the race, someone's thinking of Dubia. I don't see why all three would go at each other before the Big Cap....? Betcha Chrome runs in the Sunshine Millions...

[bisket]

I think an interesting aspect to the race is that it's 9F not 10F.

Most people are going to assume that 9F will help Bayern (and for good reason), but I think CA Chrome may also be a bit better at 9F. I thought he may have had a better turn of foot early in the year before stretching out.

What a great race if they can pull it off.

I have Chrome and Bayern as equals at both distances. Bayern got everything his way in the Classic, but Chrome was still there. Although there's some thought that Chrome was at the tail end of a pretty tough campaign, and off form a little. He might be better at 10 furs. I actually don't think either are legitimate classic runners, but just the best of what's there...?

[RXB]

This was a 3 race series for 3 and 4 year olds, that lead to the SA handicap. It was a progression of 7 furs Da Malibu, 1 1/16 miles Antonio, and 1 1/8 miles. At one time it was 7 furs, 1 1/8 mile to 1 1/4 mile for Da Strub. Prior to the Breeders Cup the idea was to attract the Triple Crown field from the previous year. I

The San Fernando was the middle leg of the Strub series; the San Antonio has always been open to all older horses.

[bisket]

The San Fernando was the middle leg of the Strub series; the San Antonio has always been open to all older horses.

got my races mixed up...

[bisket]

I'd like Shared Belief in Dubia... the other 2 not so much

[Rex Phinney]

I'd like Shared Belief in Dubia... the other 2 not so much

Did you forget that race isn't on Tapeta anymore?

[RXB]

Betcha Chrome runs in the Sunshine Millions...

The Sunshine Millions really doesn't exist in its old form. The biggest race at Santa Anita for the Cal-breds is a turf race.

[Rex Phinney]

The Sunshine Millions really doesn't exist in its old form. The biggest race at Santa Anita for the Cal-breds is a turf race.

Maybe they run in that anyway. LOL

Seriously though CC and Shared Belief should be reveling at the chance to get another shot at Bayern.

[olddaddy]

Id love to see these big three meet up with toast of new york and a full field in dubai. If these 3 run here, it will be no more than a 5 horse field.

[Some_One]

are nasal strips allowed in Dubai? we know they ain't getting lasix there.

[bisket]

I just think Shared Belief can flat out run... He has some good classic blood in him; royalty up and down his breeding line. He has shown the ability on the track to back that breeding up. He's the best of the three, but he's honestly better off meeting them somewhere other than Santa Anita. SA gives borderline stamina horses a chance to win at 1 1/4 mile....

[Lemon Drop Husker]

As for the favorites of these 3 running 9 furlongs at Santa Anita?

1. California Chrome (The "Chromies" will hit the windows hard and win out CC for being the favorite.)
2. Shared Belief (It'll be close, but SB at 9F will be 2nd to Chrome. 10F and I see SB getting the nod as favorite by the betting public.)
3. Bayern (The BC Classic Champion will be 3rd by the betting public. Still enough outrage over the controversial DQ or not to DQ Classic win, and the other 2 have always outweighed Bayern at the windows.)

[Stillriledup]

Bayern will be 3rd choice only because enough people will bet the race as if he got "lucky" in the Classic.

[Robert Fischer]

a group one 4yr old only race? What more proof would you need then that there are way too many G1's in US racing.

If you get Shared Belief, California Chrome, and Bayern in the race, then it's a G1 in everything but name...

[Redboard]

I certainly hope that the bettors make this guy the favorite. I was not impressed with his win in the Malibu last week where he beat by a neck a 3YrOld 73-1 allowance turf horse who was N2X eligible.
Unless he has to eat serious rabbit stew, give me Bayern in a romp which will embarrass the Eclipse voters.
Being horse racing though, I seriously doubt that all three show up.

[Exotic1]

I certainly hope that the bettors make this guy the favorite. I was not impressed with his win in the Malibu last week where he beat by a neck a 3YrOld 73-1 allowance turf horse who was N2X eligible.
Unless he has to eat serious rabbit stew, give me Bayern in a romp which will embarrass the Eclipse voters.
Being horse racing though, I seriously doubt that all three show up.

Jerry H. will enter a quarter horse if he has to.

[Appy]

I'm inclined to think if you ran such a race 3 times you would get 2 different results, and I don't believe Bayern would be the one who get's shut out of the winners circle.
What surprises me is that so many would put so much stock in the result of one race, considering the obvious quality of each of these fine horses.

[whodoyoulike]

The big three are all pointing to the San Antonio at 9 furlongs on 2/7 @ SA.
I doubt the field will be very large(after all, who's going to want to tackle those dudes ?).
But as an interesting sidebar....
Which one of the three stars will go off favored ?
And which horse will be the longest price of the three ?

Bayern
California Chrome
Shared Belief

I have no idea who the public will settle on.

I'm hoping these horses are entered in the race but, I think to make it really interesting there would have to be at least 8 - 12 entries. Otherwise, the number of contenders would be almost half the field. Resulting in a race which will only be enjoyable to watch instead of betting and viewing.

Good idea, I'm hoping they also can meet up at least 2 or 3 times in 2015 maybe in GP and NY before the next BC Classic. This may just be the spark needed to bring back interest from those who have disappeared from racing.

[Rex Phinney]

Word here is the CC and Bayern are going to Dubai and SB is staying here for the Big Cap.

If this is true I'd guess this will be the only time in 2015 they all face each other. The chances of 2 horses coming back from Dubai to run in top form the rest of the year is remote.

[bisket]

Word here is the CC and Bayern are going to Dubai and SB is staying here for the Big Cap.

If this is true I'd guess this will be the only time in 2015 they all face each other. The chances of 2 horses coming back from Dubai to run in top form the rest of the year is remote.

That would make sense if you don't take into consideration ability on the track. Bayern is owned by a Muslim so I'm sure the owners would like to show their horse off in Dubia. CC's trainer would probably love the payday, and they're probably shipping there on the Sheik's $$$. I don't think Hollendorfer has ever sent a horse to Dubia?

[Rex Phinney]

It also makes sense if you consider the surface change in Dubai. No way you send Bayern there if the race is still on Tapeta.

Also Shared Belief is probably not going to run a race that will win a $10,000,000 event on dirt. If the race was still on Synthetic he'd just about be a lock, but as it is, probably not worth the trip for them.

[nearco]

Bayern is owned by a Muslim so I'm sure the owners would like to show their horse off in Dubia.

WTF?

[plainolebill]

That would make sense if you don't take into consideration ability on the track. Bayern is owned by a Muslim so I'm sure the owners would like to show their horse off in Dubia. CC's trainer would probably love the payday, and they're probably shipping there on the Sheik's $$$. I don't think Hollendorfer has ever sent a horse to Dubia?

Kaleem Shah isn't a sheik, he's originally from India and his father is/was a horse trainer. You may have noticed his red, white and blue colors, he's a US citizen.

[nearco]

Kaleem Shah isn't a sheik, he's originally from India and his father is/was a horse trainer. You may have noticed his red, white and blue colors, he's a US citizen.

Right.
He's Indian by birth, a proud naturalised US citizen, he's an Engineer who made a fortune in high tech, and he names his horses after German soccer clubs.

The idea that he would be dying to to go Dubai and show off his horses just because he is Muslim (and I don't know that he is even a practicing Muslim) is about as absurd as saying the Mike Repole is dying to ship his horses to Capanelle to run in the Premio Presidente della Repubblica .... because, hey he's a Catholic.

[Stillriledup]

Right.
He's Indian by birth, a proud naturalised US citizen, he's an Engineer who made a fortune in high tech, and he names his horses after German soccer clubs.

The idea that he would be dying to to go Dubai and show off his horses just because he is Muslim (and I don't know that he is even a practicing Muslim) is about as absurd as saying the Mike Repole is dying to ship his horses to Capanelle to run in the Premio Presidente della Repubblica .... because, hey he's a Catholic.

Its the religion of money that gets people to go to Dubai.

[GMB@BP]

Its the religion of money that gets people to go to Dubai.

10 million is plenty a good reason, I subscribe to that religion.