2015 Financial Predictions Contest Comments.

[_______]

Please post any comments, suggestions, questions, or rude noises here.

The contest: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=119230

[badcompany]

Sounds like fun. That said, I still would like to hear everyone's "Best Bets."

[_______]

I posted my own predictions as a Mendoza line for the contest. Beating me in predicting financial markets shouldn't be hard.

[_______]

Sounds like fun. That said, I still would like to hear everyone's "Best Bets."

I posted Gilead Science as my tiebreaker. I know there is a lot of uncertainty around their earnings but I would expect to see their multiple increase even if they hit the mid point in targets and I think they will do better than that. The reaction to express scripts news was overdone. Everyone also seems to be valuing them as if they were a 1 trick pony with nothing else in their pipeline. They have the best management in biotech. They are a buy for me.

[badcompany]

You're preaching to the choir about Gilead. It's one of my biggest holdings. I started buying it in the 40s. Got a big lump of coal from the stock for Xmas, but, I suspect the drop will be short lived.

The stock had been bouncing around 100-110 for a few months. There was certainly a good deal of buying at that level.

The drop took place at the very end of the year. So, the incentive to take the loss for tax purposes was large. I believe many investors were shaken out of their holdings.

Now, as you surely know, when you take a loss, you can't buy the stock back for 30 days or else the loss gets washed.

So, the market makers get a free ticket to run up the stock without a lot of outsider participation.

If I'm correct, the stock should have a killer January.

[_______]

I initiated a position on 11/25 at 99.40 and bought more on 12/23 so my cost basis on the entire position is 96.26.

It's the only non-dividend paying stock in my entire portfolio which tells you how much I like it.

[barn32]

Now, as you surely know, when you take a loss, you can't buy the stock back for 30 days or else the loss gets washed.I just learned something.

[badcompany]

I just learned something.

http://www.sec.gov/answers/wash.htm

Wash Sales
Under Internal Revenue Service rules, you cannot deduct losses from sales or trades of stock or securities in a wash sale. A wash sale occurs when you sell or trade stock or securities at a loss and within 30 days before or after the sale you:

Buy substantially identical stock or securities,

Acquire substantially identical stock or securities in a fully taxable trade, or

Acquire a contract or option to buy substantially identical stock or securities.

For more information about wash sales, read IRS Publication 550, Investment Income and Expenses (Including Capital Gains and Losses).

[barn32]

http://www.sec.gov/answers/wash.htm

Wash Sales

Buy substantially identical stock or securities,

Acquire substantially identical stock or securities in a fully taxable trade, or

Acquire a contract or option to buy substantially identical stock or securities.

By substantially identical, would that be on the order of selling AAPL for a loss, but immediately buying MSFT or some similar tech stock?

[badcompany]

By substantially identical, would that be on the order of selling AAPL for a loss, but immediately buying MSFT or some similar tech stock?

From my understanding, it's the same stock. Buying MSFT would still allow you to take the loss on Apple.

[badcompany]

I posted Gilead Science as my tiebreaker. I know there is a lot of uncertainty around their earnings but I would expect to see their multiple increase even if they hit the mid point in targets and I think they will do better than that. The reaction to express scripts news was overdone. Everyone also seems to be valuing them as if they were a 1 trick pony with nothing else in their pipeline. They have the best management in biotech. They are a buy for me.

Oh, and here's the other reason I believe Gilead is heading higher and soon:



Gilead Sciences Is Not a Buy; It's Heading Lower on Price War: Jim Cramer

By Bret Kenwell - 12/23/14 - 11:01 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- After plunging 14% on Monday on the news of increased competition for its hepatitis C treatment, shares of Gilead Sciences continue to decline on Tuesday, down nearly 5%. This is a "really big decline," said TheStreet's Jim Cramer, co-manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.

While analysts at Bernstein defended the company and its promising future, analysts at Deutsche Bank lowered their price target from $142 to $125, Cramer said on Tuesday CNBC's "Mad Dash" segment.


He explained that because the stock has performed so well this year, up 44% before the recent drop, there is more room to the downside. Because Express Scripts said it will only cover AbbVie's hepatitis C drug, which is cheaper, the two drug makers are now engaged in a price war.

AbbVie, an Action Alerts PLUS holding, is a "fine" company, Cramer said. But this price war will hurt margins for both AbbVie and Gilead.

When Gilead's earnings multiple continued to shrink in 2014, that was the sign that something may have been wrong, Cramer added.

With Express Scripts taking back some control in regards to pricing, it may start doing so with other leading treatments from drug makers. This is a great thing for companies like UnitedHealth Group , he said.

As for Gilead, the stock looks as if it can continue to head lower. Investors should wait for a better buying opportunity, Cramer concluded.

[sammy the sage]

might wanna read...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/martinsosnoff/2014/04/01/the-rapacious-enrichment-of-gileads-ceo/2/

[badcompany]

might wanna read...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/martinsosnoff/2014/04/01/the-rapacious-enrichment-of-gileads-ceo/2/


If he doesn't like the way management is being paid, he's welcome to sell the stock.

As a shareholder, myself, all I care about is performance. If Gilead under performs the S&P for a considerable length of time, I'm gone.


Here's how the stock has performed since I started buying it.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/8f911d1d1e4921568daf412e6cd662d5_zpse3b7d768.jpg

[_______]

His compensation seems to align his interests with stockholders. If the stock does well, he gets even wealthier. I'm not sure how that's a bad thing.

Other than arguing about where to set the bar to trigger stock bonuses, I don't see much to worry about. If most of his compensation was cash versus stock, then I would worry.

[_______]

SP 500 2058.90
MSCI 956.31
Stoxx 50 3146.43
Topix 1407.51

XLY 72.15
XLP 48.49
XLE 79.16
XLK 41.35
XLF 24.73

MMM 164.32
AXP 93.04
T 33.59
BA 129.98
CAT 91.53
CVX 112.18
CSCO 27.82
KO 42.22
DIS 94.19
DD 73.94
XOM 92.45
GE 25.27
GS 193.83
HD 104.97
IBM 160.44
INTC 36.29
JNJ 104.57
JPM 62.58
MCD 93.70
MRK 56.79
MSFT 46.45
NKE 96.15
PFE 31.15
PG 91.09
TRV 105.85
UTX 115.00
UNH 101.90
VZ 46.78
V 262.20
WMT 85.88

Tiebreakers:

SCTY 53.48
GILD 94.26
AVGO 100.59
XLS 17.53

[badcompany]

Oh, and here's the other reason I believe Gilead is heading higher and soon:



Gilead Sciences Is Not a Buy; It's Heading Lower on Price War: Jim Cramer

By Bret Kenwell - 12/23/14 - 11:01 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- After plunging 14% on Monday on the news of increased competition for its hepatitis C treatment, shares of Gilead Sciences continue to decline on Tuesday, down nearly 5%. This is a "really big decline," said TheStreet's Jim Cramer, co-manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.

While analysts at Bernstein defended the company and its promising future, analysts at Deutsche Bank lowered their price target from $142 to $125, Cramer said on Tuesday CNBC's "Mad Dash" segment.

He explained that because the stock has performed so well this year, up 44% before the recent drop, there is more room to the downside. Because Express Scripts said it will only cover AbbVie's hepatitis C drug, which is cheaper, the two drug makers are now engaged in a price war.

AbbVie, an Action Alerts PLUS holding, is a "fine" company, Cramer said. But this price war will hurt margins for both AbbVie and Gilead.

When Gilead's earnings multiple continued to shrink in 2014, that was the sign that something may have been wrong, Cramer added.

As for Gilead, the stock looks as if it can continue to head lower. Investors should wait for a better buying opportunity, Cramer concluded.


You gotta really hate money to listen to Cramer. No one can be this bad. Someone had to have gotten into his ear and told him to talk down Gilead.

Look at the date of the story and the date of the bottom:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/0FF31EB4-7F54-48A1-B621-EEA3E4C0D564_zpsovnuv55c.png (http://s95.photobucket.com/user/thinlizzy21/media/0FF31EB4-7F54-48A1-B621-EEA3E4C0D564_zpsovnuv55c.png.html)

[_______]

Listening to him only requires tolerance of the morning zoo DJ shtick aimed at college age males. I find him unwatchable but I'm well past his target demographic.

All GILD has to do to be back in his favor is make a new high. As soon as that happens, he'll throw the switch and be a bull again. Any analysis he puts forward on any portion of the market is just a mask for his being a momentum guy.

There is a study out that tracks the performance of stocks he recommends over the short term. As I recall it shows a quick bump after his mention but on average they have traded down a week later. Those time frames are inconsequential for an investor but meaningful for the ADD audience he attracts.

I'll see if I can dig it up.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's amazing how fading certain individuals proves to be profitable over and over again.... :lol:

[_______]

Here it is:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jim-cramer-still-wont-make-you-rich/

[lamboguy]

jim cramer is very fast and sounds convincing. Dan Dorfman was the very best, as soon as he touted a stock in went way up, by the end of the day everyone that followed in got buried.

[badcompany]

Here it is:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jim-cramer-still-wont-make-you-rich/


To be fair, Cramer is on TV everyday giving out stocks. Expecting him to be profitable is like asking a public handicapper to do the same.

That said, his Gilead advice was a different animal. We're talking about a $150 billion company which had just taken a 15% hit. That doesn't happen often. To put it in perspective, the amount of market cap lost on Gilead from that drop was equal to about two years of racing handle for the entire U.S. This is serious money.

In addition, the advice was given in Wall St. "Prime Time," just before the market open. Throw in the timing vis a vis tax implications, and you have some suspicious stuff going on there.

[lamboguy]

my bet for 2015 is wheat to trade over $6.00

[_______]

To be fair, Cramer is on TV everyday giving out stocks. Expecting him to be profitable is like asking a public handicapper to do the same.

That said, his Gilead advice was a different animal. We're talking about a $150 billion company which had just taken a 15% hit. That doesn't happen often. To put it in perspective, the amount of market cap lost on Gilead from that drop was equal to about two years of racing handle for the entire U.S. This is serious money.

In addition, the advice was given in Wall St. "Prime Time," just before the market open. Throw in the timing vis a vis tax implications, and you have some suspicious stuff going on there.

Numbers out in a few minutes. I expect no guidance and huge numbers on past quarter. Should be a good pop.

[_______]

Nice beat and a dividend announced. That ends my "it's the only stock I own that doesn't pay a dividend". Sweet report on EPS and revenue.

[badcompany]

Nice beat and a dividend announced. That ends my "it's the only stock I own that doesn't pay a dividend". Sweet report on EPS and revenue.


Good call.

I wouldn't take the after hours moves at face value. Tomorrow morning will tell the real story.

[_______]

Good call.

I wouldn't take the after hours moves at face value. Tomorrow morning will tell the real story.

They offered guidance and completely sandbagged the number which is what I think is holding back the AH numbers. They are always extremely conservative but this time set a bar they'd have to dig a trench to miss.

Visit cafepharma.com and check out the Abbvie board for a laugh. The Veikara Pak reps are already talking about finding new jobs.

http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/showthread.php?t=574069

[badcompany]

They offered guidance and completely sandbagged the number which is what I think is holding back the AH numbers. They are always extremely conservative but this time set a bar they'd have to dig a trench to miss.

Visit cafepharma.com and check out the Abbvie board for a laugh. The Veikara Pak reps are already talking about finding new jobs.

http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/showthread.php?t=574069


Some funny stuff, there :lol:

[barn32]

Numbers out in a few minutes. I expect no guidance and huge numbers on past quarter. Should be a good pop.Not much of a trade really, but $100 is $100.

Had I not seen this post I wouldn't have even paid any attention. In AH I saw GILD get pushed down to around minus $5.00 and I thought I should pounce, but too late. It went straight to minus $3.00. So, I decided if it got down to around minus $5.00 again I'd buy 100 shares.

It actually went about $80 below my buy price, to around minus $5.60, but it came back fairly quickly and stopped me out for plus $100.

Maybe if it falls back down I can do it one more time.

Thanks.

http://oi59.tinypic.com/vncguf.jpg

[barn32]

I have made a total of two after hours trades and they both worked out OK. This trade I started pre-market and closed out once the market had been open for a while.

Again, I thought GILD was oversold at around -$11.00, so I worked in 300 shares. I was down pretty good for a while, but I wasn't too worried. I felt the stock should actually be down around $7 or $8 for the day--not $11 and it did eventually bounce back up to that price. (Down $8 as I write this.)

These profits will help to offset the losses that will surely be coming.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/1zwghg4.jpg

[badcompany]

I see this as another shakeout. The boys at JPM saw an opportunity to shake out a boatload of stock from new buyers and jumped on it. My guess is that they'll be holding the stock for awhile as the price rises, and collecting the new divs.

If you notice, these drops always occur from intermediate highs. Same thing in December.

[_______]

I already have a position in the stock and to maintain balance in my portfolio didn't want to buy more even though I see the market as seriously mispricing the company.

So I bought 2 of the Jan 2017 $100 LEAP contacts at $18.69. I just don't see how it can stay at a low multiple given what I see them earning. Paid a large premium for the extended time but I believe it's on GILD's side.

[badcompany]

Unless the market, as a whole, tanks, hard to see how you don't make money on that one.

[reckless]

Harris Corp. (HRS) today made a tender offer of approx. $25.00 (mostly cash and some stock) to buy my favorite and one of my most successful stocks Exelis Corp. (XLS).

At $25 Harris still gets a company at a bargain-basement price.

My own analysis pegged XLS having an intrinsic value of close to $35-40.

I'll still take the money nevertheless.

In our little contest I selected XLS as my tie breaker for 2015 as it was selling for about $17.53 or so at the end of the year.

[badcompany]

Harris Corp. (HRS) today made a tender offer of approx. $25.00 (mostly cash and some stock) to buy my favorite and one of my most successful stocks Exelis Corp. (XLS).

At $25 Harris still gets a company at a bargain-basement price.

My own analysis pegged XLS having an intrinsic value of close to $35-40.

I'll still take the money nevertheless.

In our little contest I selected XLS as my tie breaker for 2015 as it was selling for about $17.53 or so at the end of the year.


Wow!

If it's a tie, I like your chances :ThmbUp:

[_______]

Harris Corp. (HRS) today made a tender offer of approx. $25.00 (mostly cash and some stock) to buy my favorite and one of my most successful stocks Exelis Corp. (XLS).

At $25 Harris still gets a company at a bargain-basement price.

My own analysis pegged XLS having an intrinsic value of close to $35-40.

I'll still take the money nevertheless.

In our little contest I selected XLS as my tie breaker for 2015 as it was selling for about $17.53 or so at the end of the year.

Very nice! A good pop for HRS also on news of the acquisition which is a good sign.

$16.625 cash plus .1025 share of HRS. Will use those figures to calculate if tiebreaker is needed.

[reckless]

Very nice! A good pop for HRS also on news of the acquisition which is a good sign.

$16.625 cash plus .1025 share of HRS. Will use those figures to calculate if tiebreaker is needed.

I don't think my overall picks will win the contest, but if it does indeed go to a tiebreaker, whatever total figure is the lesser, I'll accept. We can do the calculations after business today; just use XLS closing price today; do the math w/$16.625 plus the 12-31-15 closing price of HRS, whatever is easier, or even lesser. It's OK w/me.

I just wanna have some fun. Try to share what little I know in talking stocks, and meeting some decent like-minded people along the way.

PFE (my top Dow pick) bounced up a bit these past 2 days w/financial engineering by buying a good undervalued company. I am just glad they didn't try stinky AZN again :). XLS gets bought out. GCI, HPQ, JRN and LO all jumped last year due to take-overs, stock spin offs or were cheap via high FCF yield. My cost basis for GCI is around $6; JRN around $2 and LO around $10. XLS was part of ITT I had owned for about 15 years. My real cost basis must be around <$1 when you factor in the shares I received for ITT education, Xylam, XLS, and ITT. I own ITT still and XYL but the tech college I sold a few years back.

When investors are able to analyze a company and put a value around certain assets not talked about much on CNBC good things eventually happen. When you can identify steady growers that consistently earn high ROIC and free cash flow at a cheap price, good things eventually happen.

Good luck to all the rest of the year.

[badcompany]

Harris Corp. (HRS) today made a tender offer of approx. $25.00 (mostly cash and some stock) to buy my favorite and one of my most successful stocks Exelis Corp. (XLS).

At $25 Harris still gets a company at a bargain-basement price.

My own analysis pegged XLS having an intrinsic value of close to $35-40.

I'll still take the money nevertheless.

In our little contest I selected XLS as my tie breaker for 2015 as it was selling for about $17.53 or so at the end of the year.

Looks like we have a tiebreaker horse race. Mine, Avago, had a pretty good day:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/85a03815a2379f4200328b6c461ab3ef_zpsfc69c318.jpg

[reckless]

Looks like we have a tiebreaker horse race. Mine, Avago, had a pretty good day:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/85a03815a2379f4200328b6c461ab3ef_zpsfc69c318.jpg

Despite having 10 months left, I probably should concede to your picks right now! :)

WTG on Avago and Gilead, badcompany.

PS-I picked up a little CBS, Viacom, and added to Xylem yesterday and today.

[badcompany]

Despite having 10 months left, I probably should concede to your picks right now! :)

WTG on Avago and Gilead, badcompany.

PS-I picked up a little CBS, Viacom, and added to Xylem yesterday and today.


It's a long race and you just never know.

Good luck with your new acquisitions. I've been surprised by the performance of the big media companies, especially CBS. I didn't think it would fare as well in the "new media" environment.

[_______]

First lap of 4. Here is where we are at so far:

The Contest:

1) What will the S and P 500 return in 2015?

A) Negative
B) 0-9.99...% 1.33%
C) 10-19.99...%
D) 20% or above

2) Which equity market will fare best in 2015?

A) U.S. (S and P 500) 1.33%
B) Emerging Markets (MSCI Index) 1.82%
C) Europe (Stoxx 50) 17.51%
D) Japan (Topix) 9.36%

3) Which of the listed S and P sectors will perform best in 2015?

A) Health Care 7.90%
B) Consumer Staples 1.46%
C) Energy -1.41%
D) Technology 1.26%
E) Financials -1.82%

4) Where will oil (WTI) finish in 2015?

A) Under $50 $47.25
B) $50-$64.99
C) $65-$90
D) Over $90

5) Where will the 30 year T-Bond finish 2015?

A) 2.499... or lower
B) 2.5-2.99... 2.55%
C) 3-3.99...
D) 4.0 or higher.

6) Where will Apple stock finish 2015?

A) Under $100
B) $100-119.99
C) $120-139.99 $124.43
D) $140 or higher

7) Name the best performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points) UHN 17.01%

8) Name the worst performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points)
AXP -16.04%

I didn't add up any scores as a lot will change between now and 12/31. Hope everyone had a profitable quarter.

[badcompany]

Nice work, Don.

I don't have my glasses on, how did my individual stock picks do? ;)


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/4d5a7e5fab76df16bf497b80009f10ba_zpsusvv7lsp.jpg

[_______]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[badcompany]

Big pop for Avago AVGO, today, according to WSJ, they're in talks to buy Broadcom.

They also report earnings, Thurs, after the bell. Should be interesting.

[badcompany]

The traders who bought Avago at the open on Thurs got worked. The stock was up 5% in pre-market and dropped to the point where it was down 3% during the day.

IMO all the suckers who sold for the loss Thurs set up a nice day Friday, up 4% on a down day.

[_______]

I already have a position in the stock and to maintain balance in my portfolio didn't want to buy more even though I see the market as seriously mispricing the company.

So I bought 2 of the Jan 2017 $100 LEAP contacts at $18.69. I just don't see how it can stay at a low multiple given what I see them earning. Paid a large premium for the extended time but I believe it's on GILD's side.

GILD closed at $119.13 today, up 19.25% from it's close on 2-5 when I posted this. The option closed at $27.45, up 47.66%.

The interesting part is the major run up has been over the last 30 days on virtually no substantial news. It's ex dividend for the first time tomorrow. Other than that, nothing has happened. I think the price is finally rationalizing.

Isn't is about time for Cramer to jump back on the bandwagon, now that he talked everyone out of owing it at $95?

[badcompany]

Yeah, I guess we can take a bow, at least for time being. Even Ray Dalio got shaken out of Gilead. I looked at his SEC filings. He got on board too late and got tired of the recent tubulance..

[_______]

The Contest:

1) What will the S and P 500 return in 2015?

A) Negative
B) 0-9.99...% 0.20%
C) 10-19.99...%
D) 20% or above

2) Which equity market will fare best in 2015?

A) U.S. (S and P 500) 0.20%
B) Emerging Markets (MSCI Index) 1.61%
C) Europe (Stoxx 50) 8.83%
D) Japan (Topix) 15.84%

3) Which of the listed S and P sectors will perform best in 2015?

A) Health Care 8.41%
B) Consumer Staples -1.67%
C) Energy -5.71%
D) Technology 0.02%
E) Financials -1.78%

4) Where will oil (WTI) finish in 2015?

A) Under $50
B) $50-$64.99 $59.37
C) $65-$90
D) Over $90

5) Where will the 30 year T-Bond finish 2015?

A) 2.499... or lower
B) 2.5-2.99...
C) 3-3.99... 3.09%
D) 4.0 or higher.

6) Where will Apple stock finish 2015?

A) Under $100
B) $100-119.99
C) $120-139.99 $125.43
D) $140 or higher

7) Name the best performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points)
DIS 21.18%

8) Name the worst performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points)
WMT -17.18%

Tiebreaker: Pick a U.S equity. Best total return (including dividend) wins.

SCTY 0.13%
GILD 24.21%
AVGO 32.15%
XLS (acquired by HRS for $16.625 plus .1025 shares of HRS. Deal closed 5/29. Calculation based on HRS June 30 closing price plus cash) 39.82%
PDI -4.98%
UNH 20.64%

Will do a status on the questions in 3rd quarter when it will begin to be meaningful.

Thought it was interesting that both Japanese and European indexes, which are dollar denominated, are so much higher than SP500 despite dollar strength. In local currency, they are even higher.