2015 Financial Predictions (with prize)

[_______]

1 point each for the first six predictions. 2 points each for seven and eight. I'll set a deadline of U.S. Market open on January 5th for entries. Yes, there will be a low volume day on Jan 2nd but I doubt anyone gets any real advantage.

The prize will be a 1 year subscription to Barrons (from whom I stole most of the quiz) or it's new subscription equivilant in cash. That would be $52 right now but I'll cover any increase between now and January 1st, 2016.

I have posted a separate thread for comments here: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1754937#post1754937

Please keep this thread for answers

Please post answers to 1-6 using the number of the question and letter of your response. For 7 and 8, post the number and name of the Dow Stock. For the tiebreaker, please post a equity listed on any of the major U.S. Exchanges.

The Contest:

1) What will the S and P 500 return in 2015?

A) Negative
B) 0-9.99...%
C) 10-19.99...%
D) 20% or above

2) Which equity market will fare best in 2015?

A) U.S. (S and P 500)
B) Emerging Markets (MSCI Index)
C) Europe (Stoxx 50)
D) Japan (Topix)

3) Which of the listed S and P sectors will perform best in 2015?

A) Health Care
B) Consumer Staples
C) Energy
D) Technology
E) Financials

4) Where will oil (WTI) finish in 2015?

A) Under $50
B) $50-$64.99
C) $65-$90
D) Over $90

5) Where will the 30 year T-Bond finish 2015?

A) 2.499... or lower
B) 2.5-2.99...
C) 3-3.99...
D) 4.0 or higher.

6) Where will Apple stock finish 2015?

A) Under $100
B) $100-119.99
C) $120-139.99
D) $140 or higher

7) Name the best performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points)

8) Name the worst performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points)

Tiebreaker: Pick a U.S equity. Best total return (including dividend) wins.

This is the original quiz which at the time of this posting isn't behind a paywall. I did make some changes so it is not a copy and paste. Once this disappears behind their paywall, I should credit the author Andrew Bray for the idea. http://online.barrons.com/articles/barrons-quiz-test-your-wall-street-skills-1419653536?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_5

[barn32]

.

Please post answers to 1-6 using the number of the question and letter of your response. For 7 and 8, post the number and name of the Dow Stock. For the tiebreaker, please post a equity listed on any of the major U.S. Exchanges.

The Contest:

1) What will the S and P 500 return in 2015?

C) 10-19.99...%

2) Which equity market will fare best in 2015?

B) US (S&P)

3) Which of the listed S and P sectors will perform best in 2015?

A) Health Care

4) Where will oil (WTI) finish in 2015?

C) $65-$90

5) Where will the 30 year T-Bond finish 2015?

C) 3-3.99...

6) Where will Apple stock finish 2015?

D) $140 or higher

7) Name the best performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points)

CSCO

8) Name the worst performing stock in the Dow Industrials (2 points)

GE

Tiebreaker: Pick a U.S equity. Best total return (including dividend) wins.

SCTY

[_______]

1) b
2) c
3) d
4) c
5) d
6) c
7) Boeing (BA)
8) AT&T (T)
9) Gilead Science (GILD)

[badcompany]

1) C
2) B
3) A
4) A
5) C
6) C

7) CSCO
8) MCD

Tiebreaker

AVGO

[reckless]

1-a
2-d
3-a
4-a
5-b
6-b
7-Pfizer (PFE)
8-Catapillar (CAT)

Tiebreaker:

Exelis (XLS)

[badcompany]

Here are some general money making ideas:

Short Yen
Short Silver/Gold
Short Oil
Short Grains
Short Coffee

Long Dollar
Long U.S Equities

Individual Stocks:
ACT
AVGO
HAIN
JCOM

Plus the stocks I picked in 2014. if it ain't broke, don't fix it:

PPG
CERN
MTD
NEU

[plainolebill]

1. A
2. A
3. B
4. C
5. A
6. A
7. PG
8. CAT
9. PDI

[davew]

1-B
2-A
3-A
4-B
5-A
6-B
7- UNH United Health Group
8- CVX Chevron
tiebreaker UNH United Health Group

[_______]

Entries are closed.

[_______]

SP 500 2058.90
MSCI 956.31
Stoxx 50 3146.43
Topix 1407.51

XLY 72.15
XLP 48.49
XLE 79.16
XLK 41.35
XLF 24.73

MMM 164.32
AXP 93.04
T 33.59
BA 129.98
CAT 91.53
CVX 112.18
CSCO 27.82
KO 42.22
DIS 94.19
DD 73.94
XOM 92.45
GE 25.27
GS 193.83
HD 104.97
IBM 160.44
INTC 36.29
JNJ 104.57
JPM 62.58
MCD 93.70
MRK 56.79
MSFT 46.45
NKE 96.15
PFE 31.15
PG 91.09
TRV 105.85
UTX 115.00
UNH 101.90
VZ 46.78
V 262.20
WMT 85.88

Tiebreakers:

SCTY 53.48
GILD 94.26
AVGO 100.59
XLS 17.53
PDI 30.74
UNH 101.09

[_______]

The "best performing stock in the Dow Industrials" will exclude Apple.

I'll resist the urge to proclaim that delisting warrents a win for T (my pick) in the worst performing category. Nonetheless, I'll calculate it's return at the end of the contest.

[badcompany]

The "best performing stock in the Dow Industrials" will exclude Apple.

I'll resist the urge to proclaim that delisting warrents a win for T (my pick) in the worst performing category. Nonetheless, I'll calculate it's return at the end of the contest.

Heard an interesting stat today.

Had Apple, and not AT&T, been in the Dow since 2009, it would be at 21,000.

[_______]

Basically a day and a half of low volume trading left. I apologize for ignoring the 3Q update.

Questions 2,4, and 6 are in the bag and reckless nailed all of them. 3 and 5 are unlikely to change but could. He has 1 of those (Health Care sector).

If the S and P finished negative for the year, he would have 5 points. Otherwise he is likely to have 4.

The only person with a theoretical chance at catching him is plainolbill. If the consumer staples sector finished the year as the best performing sector, Apple closed below $100, and Catapillar was the worst performing Dow stock, Bill would pull off the Hail Mary.

But I don't think any of those is likely.

reckless, I'll pm you after the 1st to arrange payment. Congrats and thanks to all who participated.

[_______]

And it's official.

With the S and P negative for the year, reckless hit 5 out of the 6 predictions that didn't involve a massive dose of luck.

Great job reckless. Check your inbox.

[PaceAdvantage]

Congrats reckless for not being reckless in your opinion!

With that said, where the hell did badcompany go?

[reckless]

Thanks Mike... investing is in the same boat as playing the horses.

There's a ton of information out there for both the finance investors and horse players and it serves best to ignore much of it and make your conclusions and decisions.

Independent research, experience, common sense, and complete confidence (especially when your opinions are against the grain of broad, current opinion) in oneself are near absolute truths for success, IMO.

[Tape Reader]

Congrats reckless for not being reckless in your opinion!

With that said, where the hell did badcompany go?

Me too. Congrats reckless.

Does anyone know if badcompany is OK? He was such a good contributor to this thread.

[reckless]

Thanks too, Tape Reader.

I'm also worried about badcompany as I PMd him a while back, asking if all was OK. No response.

[whodoyoulike]

Congrats reckless for not being reckless in your opinion!

With that said, where the hell did badcompany go?

Hopefully, he shorted as he posted in #6 and is spending more time on evaluating stock markets trends. And, I hope he is well. I didn't agree with most of his stock picks but, he was good at noting trends.

Also, congrats to Reckless!