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View Full Version : 2015 Prediction on the 10-year T-bond????


Saratoga_Mike
12-26-2014, 12:24 PM
Surprising most market prognosticators, the 10-yr treasury yield declined further this year and currently stands at 2.26%.

Where will the 10-yr yield stand on 12/13/15 and why?

lamboguy
12-26-2014, 12:46 PM
i say 1.14 % because the US 10 year is higher than other western countries. Germany is .80% right now.

Saratoga_Mike
12-26-2014, 12:55 PM
i say 1.14 % because the US 10 year is higher than other western countries. Germany is .80% right now.

I lean toward this way of thinking also (Germany is down to 0.60%). We're both making an implicit assumption that German/other European/Japanese yields aren't going up. Focusing on Germany, why won't German yields back up in 2015?

Robert Goren
12-26-2014, 01:02 PM
If there are no surprises, 3.00%. If, as I suspect, the oil industry drags down more than a few banks, then it stays about the same at 2.25%.

_______
12-26-2014, 01:09 PM
3.05%. Europe and oil stabilize. ECB QE eases deflation fears. U.S. economic data continues strong to the end of the year.

Saratoga_Mike
12-26-2014, 01:18 PM
3.05%. Europe and oil stabilize. ECB QE eases deflation fears. U.S. economic data continues strong to the end of the year.

You're implying that EU QE will push European long rates up, correct?

badcompany
12-26-2014, 03:49 PM
2%

Something unforeseen happens which delays Yellen from raising rates.

reckless
12-26-2014, 08:23 PM
I see the T-bill at the bottom a tick or two under 1.0%. The top in 2015 will be below the current rate so lets say the top at 2.0%

The 6-7-8 years of falling USA and world-wide interest rates .... the precipitous drop in the price of oil .... failed stimulus policies in the USA, Europe and now, Japan, proves just one thing -- we're in a world-wide deflationary environment!

In 2015, deflationary pressures thanks to technology, oil dropping again on world markets, and add an across-the-board pier six brawl type price wars affecting numerous industrys, and the economy here will hit record (low) levels, with the obligatory low rates.

I repeat, a T-bill rate no higher than 2.0% with most of 2015 heading to and hovering around +/- 1.0%