kenwoodall question

[chickenhead]

so hollywood median 4F morning work is 48.40 today, I think you said in earlier post 48.60 was considered fastest, so this is off your charts, yes?

So what is your theory? I know you say you play favorites in this instance,

is that because horses run truer to form IYO on a fast track hence best horse wins, and favorite is usually best fig horse...

or

do you bet fav's because early speed wins and you think early speed is what is bet as favorite?

This has always confused me, it is not clear whether you bet the favorite for which reason....if it is early speed you care about, then shouldn't you ignore the odds, and bet the best early speed?

I'm not giving you a hard time, I'm just curious.

Thanks,
CH

[kenwoodallpromos]

I bet favs because I am lazy. I have also stopped betting on Sundays and am advising people to study days of the week.
Generally early speed does well when 4f dirt works are 49.0 or less. Hol today was 48.4, and on my 1-10 point system 48.8 or under is a -1-.
I am now keeping major track points as variants; Hol mon was 1; tue 1; wed 2; thursday 2 with a slow stretch; fri 3; sat 7 (49.8, normal slow); sunday 5-9-04 1 with a gap between 49 and 50 and checking results, a slow stretch.
Hol 5-9-04 had several wiring; low odds and favs close to the pace and finishing well. As I have said, Hol track crew is a good as they get- I believe the 7 on sat and the slow stretches mean during the week the track crew worked on various parts of the track. BM's track speeds match Hol this week amazingly closely- fast all week EXCEPT a 7 on Sat. LS and CD were fast all week except slower on Wed.
I do not claim to predict winners- just track speed. My picks are for fun.

[kenwoodallpromos]

See Calder Mon 5-10-04 for big workout gap, resulting in fast times except slow stretch.