Malibu Predictions

[zico20]

We all know that Shared Belief is going off a big favorite in here. Most likely 3-5 will be his final odds. The experts at DRF unfortunately are all over the horse I like to beat him. That is Chitu. I just wonder how much Shared Belief is primed for this on the cut back in distance.

I also love Midnight Hawk to be in the super. 3rd race back with blinkers off. He is a horse that will keep on coming at 7F. I am going about this as if Indianapolis won't be running. Don't see why Baffert would have a 4 horse tandem against Shared Belief and nobody in the race on Sunday.

Pimpernel appears to be the next best horse although I can't see him beating the top three. My super long shot in the race is Rprettyboyfloyd. 2nd off the long layoff and will be closing late for 4th IF Pimpernal falters.

I do not like at all the rest of the field. Conquest two step is too slow time wise and very cheap. Tamarando is a distance horse who is clearly better on the synthetic and has no early speed. Diamond Bachelor got buried to Pimpernal last time out and has a poor record at SA. Frensham is a Cal bred with a poor record at SA plus his final times are way below these.

One last item. This has been the kiss of death for me lately. When one horse beats another three times in a row like Chitu has over Midnight Hawk, the tables get turned the fourth time. I hope I can break this pattern today.

:2: :8: :6: :5: :4: in that order. If Indianapolis runs I would put him 4th behind Midnight Hawk. I could see Midnight Hawk running 2nd though behind Chitu. I don't see Shared Belief any worse than 3rd in here. I will figure out the amounts later on today.

[Stillriledup]

Good writeup Z man, merry X mas to you.

Personally, i feel that its a 2 horse race, depending on race flow, bias and warmups, you have the Chitu and the favorite, one of them will win. This is a weakish version of the Malibu after the top 2 best horses.

[Robert Fischer]

I have not handicapped this race.

However, from past knowledge of these entries, I agree with Stillriledup.

Chitu has been an underrated horse, and Shared Belief is obviously a star.

Chitu may be the value here if you do not feel that Shared Belief is invincible.

Midnight Hawk had some flaws in the past, which make him likely to be an underlay if he has not significantly improved.

[Stillriledup]

I have not handicapped this race.

However, from past knowledge of these entries, I agree with Stillriledup.

Chitu has been an underrated horse, and Shared Belief is obviously a star.

Chitu may be the value here if you do not feel that Shared Belief is invincible.

Midnight Hawk had some flaws in the past, which make him likely to be an underlay if he has not significantly improved.

I love Chitu as a horse, he's a very strong striding animal, but i don't like his spotty race pattern....misses 6 months than wins and you dont see him again for 2 more months.....so to me, that gives me cause for concern.

[ReplayRandall]

This is one of the rare times I will ever give my prediction of a horse race. Jerry Hollendorfer has 5 works into Shared Belief since the BC. There is only one reason this horse is running today, to win BIG and proclaim SB went undefeated except for getting stuffed in the BC. Two options in this race, either take 50% on the dollar and bet :8: Shared Belief, or pass the race.....$$

[Stillriledup]

This is one of the rare times I will ever give my prediction of a horse race. Jerry Hollendorfer has 5 works into Shared Belief since the BC. There is only one reason this horse is running today, to win BIG and proclaim SB went undefeated except for getting stuffed in the BC. Two options in this race, either take 50% on the dollar and bet :8: Shared Belief, or pass the race.....$$

Wait! This is a horse racing message board, rare predictions not allowed! :D

I basically agree with this post, SB isn't a horse i'm really looking to bet against in this spot.

[Robert Fischer]

I love Chitu as a horse, he's a very strong striding animal, but i don't like his spotty race pattern....misses 6 months than wins and you dont see him again for 2 more months.....so to me, that gives me cause for concern.
I personally feel no concern whatsoever over Chitu's pattern. He's the most highly conditioned animal in this race.

He's a top ranked Grade 3 horse with an ideal distance around 8.5f.

7 furlongs is a little bit short for him.
The Malibu is hard to read because a lot of the contesting early pace comes from the same barn.

Will Pimpernel (or even Indianapolis) be sent in a duel with Chitu early or will Rosario be given some breathing room aboard Chitu?? -In the past I have often seen Baffert 'send' both horses. It's possible Pimpernel could harass Chitu.

How about when the field comes to Chitu nearing the turn? Will Tamarando be used to tackle him at that time? Will Pimpernel or another speed tackle Chitu approaching the turn?

And if Chitu controls the pace and the rail, how much of a trip will Shared Belief have to overcome, and will it be enough of a disadvantage to offset Shared Belief's greater ability?

[Stillriledup]

I personally feel no concern whatsoever over Chitu's pattern. He's the most highly conditioned animal in this race.

He's a top ranked Grade 3 horse with an ideal distance around 8.5f.

7 furlongs is a little bit short for him.
The Malibu is hard to read because a lot of the contesting early pace comes from the same barn.

Will Pimpernel (or even Indianapolis) be sent in a duel with Chitu early or will Rosario be given some breathing room aboard Chitu?? -In the past I have often seen Baffert 'send' both horses. It's possible Pimpernel could harass Chitu.

How about when the field comes to Chitu nearing the turn? Will Tamarando be used to tackle him at that time? Will Pimpernel or another speed tackle Chitu approaching the turn?

And if Chitu controls the pace and the rail, how much of a trip will Shared Belief have to overcome, and will it be enough of a disadvantage to offset Shared Belief's greater ability?

Chitu seemed a bit "slow into stride" in his latest win, he worked hard to get to the front. He's a fantastic horse and if he looks good on the track the price is right and the inside speed seems strong, i'll consider him.

Historically, the Malibu gets "Stacked up" at the head of the lane, they don't string out in this race all that often, if Chitu is going to be on the lead, he's going to be working hard all the way. He can still win though.

2 horse race, i'd be shocked if someone else won.

[zico20]

Good writeup Z man, merry X mas to you.

Personally, i feel that its a 2 horse race, depending on race flow, bias and warmups, you have the Chitu and the favorite, one of them will win. This is a weakish version of the Malibu after the top 2 best horses.

Thank you SRU, Merry Christmas to you also. My only question mark about Shared Belief is how far back will he be going into the turn. I could see him 6 lengths off the pace or right up their pressing it. If he is right up there then he will be no worse than second. Midnight Hawk won't catch him in the stretch.

Also, keep an eye on this race for Saturday. Secret Circle is running in the 5th against Bahamian Squall, who ran 2nd behind Chitu. A solid race by Chitu will make Bahamian Squall look very tough to keep out of the trifecta behind Secret Circle.

I sincerely hope nobody got a heart attack when they saw I picked against a heavy favorite. :D It does happen from time to time that I bet against the big favorite. Of course I will have Shared Belief on top a few times to cover my ass.

[raybo]

My post from my forum (I'm putting myself out there on this one, so take your shots if you have to, but just stating what the hard data shows, and not really trying to predict unusual things happening pace wise, which certainly could happen):

This Friday is the Malibu GR1 stakes at Santa Anita. It brings together a bunch of decent horses, but goes at 7F. That is the kicker, as almost everyone on the planet will be betting Shared Belief, who certainly looks like the best horse in the race. But, Shared Belief hasn't run a sprint race since May, and that one was at Golden Gate with Russell Baze aboard. Of course Baze is going to win that one, without much doubt, GG is HIS track and SB had already won 3 races in a row by that time, 2 at Hollywood park and 1 at GG. All his races since, have been at least 9f routes.

So, with SB likely going off at 3/5 or so, do you bet such a horse, who will not be anywhere near the early lead, unless the pace is very slow, and I don't see that happening. Bob Baffert has 4 horses entered in this race, 3 of which will be up front early, according to running styles and early velocities. They are: 5 Pimpernel, 2 Chitu, and 6 Midnight Hawk. And Mark Casse has the other up front horse, 1 Conquest Two Step.

The velocity order from the start to 1st call that RS is projecting, using only each horses' sprint races, is:

5 Pimpernel (Baffert - Garcia) (59.03 fps)
1 Conquest Two Step (Casse - Talamo) (58.70 fps)
2 Chitu (Baffert - Rosario) (57.46 fps)
3 Indianapolis (Baffert - Stevens) (56.18)

What does Baffert have up his sleeve with 3 of the 4 early horses being his? Does he order them to slow down the pace and hope one of them survives to win? Or, does he order them to contest each other early, which could bring the "off the pace" Shared Belief into the picture later on? Hmmmmm---?

Well, let's look at what the picture is from the start to the 2nd call.

5 Pimpernel (Baffert - Garcia) (59.03 fps)
1 Conquest Two Step (Casse - Talamo) (58.76 fps)
2 Chitu (Baffert - Rosario) (57.89 fps)
6 Midnight Hawk (Baffert - Espinosa) (57.71 fps)

We still have 3 of the 4 projected leaders being Baffert horses, with Midnight Hawk picking up the pace by that call. The same scenario we had in the 1st fraction, is still there at the 2nd call. The wildcard here is, 1 Conquest Two Step. Nobody is going to be betting this horse, after all he's 15/1 on the morning line, right? Does this horse offer value? Well, value is determined by odds and probability (chances of winning). The price is certainly going to be there, but is the probability? Well, he projects to be 2nd at the 1st and 2nd call, so his probability doesn't look too bad yet, does it? But, what can he do in the final segment? Can he stick around late?

Yes!! He has the best FR3 high velocity in the field! Only pace and pressure will determine if he's able to assert that late kick.

Here's how it shakes out from after the 1st call to the finish:

1 Conquest Two Step (59.39 fps)
5 Pimpernel (59.14 fps)
3 Indianapolis (57.92 fps)
2 Chitu (57.42 fps)

So, from start to finish, here's what we have:

1 Conquest Two Step (59.38 fps)
5 Pimpernel (59.14 fps)
3 Indianapolis (57.92 fps)
2 Chitu (57.42 fps)

Where is Shared Belief????

FR1 - 7th at 55.55 fps
FR1+FR2 - 9th at 56.21 fps
FR2+FR3 - 7th at 56.70 fps
Start to finish - 7th at 56.70 fps


Ok, Ok, I know that running styles and velocities don't tell the whole story in every race. Shared Belief has the top Class rating (by a bunch), and the top Power figure (but not by much, only 2 points over Chitu), and has 3 G1 wins, 1 G2 win, and 1 Gr3 win in 8 races. But, in this race, if the pace is decently but not overly fast, I just don't see any way he can get to the leaders by the end of the race. I just don't see how that can happen, unless things are run totally different than what I see happening, especially at Santa Anita where early speed has always been King! If you have a decent speed horse running at Santa Anita are you NOT gong to use that speed? Of course you are, that is just common sense. You just don't want to run his wheels completely off.

So, I see Baffert sending his early horses, but not murderously fast, just at a nice clip. If that happens, he only has to beat Conquest Two Step to win this one.

Shared Belief? I wouldn't bet him to win, with your money!!

[Robert Fischer]

Chitu seemed a bit "slow into stride" in his latest win, he worked hard to get to the front. ...

Historically, the Malibu gets "Stacked up" at the head of the lane, they don't string out in this race all that often, if Chitu is going to be on the lead, he's going to be working hard all the way. He can still win though.
...

There's gotta be some scenarios where Chitu works too hard and can't control the lead on the rail.

Is that an automatic Shared Belief win? What about exotics? Can Pimpernel finish strongly or will he quit at this class?

I want to see the odds. If Chitu is 9-2 maybe I will use him to win. If he's 5-2, maybe I'll look at what could go wrong.

[Stillriledup]

There's gotta be some scenarios where Chitu works too hard and can't control the lead on the rail.

Is that an automatic Shared Belief win? What about exotics? Can Pimpernel finish strongly or will he quit at this class?

I want to see the odds. If Chitu is 9-2 maybe I will use him to win. If he's 5-2, maybe I'll look at what could go wrong.

Chitu will be closer to 5-2, maybe even 2-1 because i think the public is viewing this as a 2 horse race. The 2nd horse of the 2 horse race is going to bet down pretty hard, esp since its a fancy horse w Baffert training.

I dont know how the race will go, but these top 2 faves can spread eagle the field and pull away, i dont see anyone else worth playing.

[zico20]

Chitu will be closer to 5-2, maybe even 2-1 because i think the public is viewing this as a 2 horse race. The 2nd horse of the 2 horse race is going to bet down pretty hard, esp since its a fancy horse w Baffert training.

I dont know how the race will go, but these top 2 faves can spread eagle the field and pull away, i dont see anyone else worth playing.

You are correct, Chitu will go off at 2-1 or 5-2. That you can take to the bank. Chitu will press Pimpernel on the turn and overtake him at the top of the stretch. Then it is just a question if he can hold off Shared Belief.

[Fingal]

I also love Midnight Hawk to be in the super. 3rd race back with blinkers off. He is a horse that will keep on coming at 7F.

He has a legitimate long shot chance from the way I look at internal fractions. Mix in the blinker & jock change...........

[Some_One]

What about Indy?

[Stillriledup]

What about Indy?

I think we're assuming he's going to run in the other race.

[raybo]

Personally, I think all 4 Baffert horses, Conquest Two Step, and SB, all have a decent shot at winning. I think SB will have the toughest job, as he needs either a really slow pace, or a really fast pace in order to utilize his off the pace style, and he is a no bet anyway because of his low odds, maybe Chitu also. For SB, coming out fast and staying close,if not on the lead, may be his best shot at winning this race. If he doesn't come out fast, and if the pace is fast,but not blistering, I think he will be too far back to win it.

[Stillriledup]

Personally, I think all 4 Baffert horses, Conquest Two Step, and SB, all have a decent shot at winning. I think SB will have the toughest job, as he needs either a really slow pace, or a really fast pace in order to utilize his off the pace style, and he is a no bet anyway because of his low odds, maybe Chitu also. For SB, coming out fast and staying close,if not on the lead, may be his best shot at winning this race. If he doesn't come out fast, and if the pace is fast,but not blistering, I think he will be too far back to win it.

It will be an absolute shock if anyone but Chitu or the favorite win the race. The rest of the horses are essentially "no hopers".

[Stillriledup]

Ive been thinking about this race more and more and looking at it on paper and i'm thinking that Smith is going to put SB into the race more, he will be pressing the lead right in the first flight, i dont think he's going to be too far back as he knows Chitu is probably the horse to beat, he doesn't want to let him get too far ahead.

[taxicab]

I will make a non wagering prediction.
Tamarando makes a left turn when the gate opens and poleaxes the three Baffert runners drawn inside of him.
Prettyboyfloyd who has absolutely no gate speed won't be bothered by the bumper car action early on.
Jerry's revenge..... :eek:

[dilanesp]

I don't really have an opinion on this race, but it's worth noting that historically, plenty of routers have turned back to win the Malibu (Buckpasser, Spectacular Bid, Ferdinand, etc.).

[taxicab]

I don't really have an opinion on this race, but it's worth noting that historically, plenty of routers have turned back to win the Malibu (Buckpasser, Spectacular Bid, Ferdinand, etc.).


http://youtu.be/rUpVHqkss_o

http://youtu.be/uMWp7hOGrRc

[raybo]

It will be an absolute shock if anyone but Chitu or the favorite win the race. The rest of the horses are essentially "no hopers".

Almost any horse with early speed, at Santa Anita, has a decent chance. We know, going in, that the track will favor speed, that's always been a given there, so, anyone that comes on here after the race and complains that the track favored the speed types, has no right to make such an argument. I think that if Chitu pushes the pace, against as many as 3 or 4 other early/presser type horses, at SA, he's looking at losing any chance he has of winning. Likewise for SB, although he may just have the class to get away with it.

This race could go one of many ways, so at this point, the race is anything but a 2 horse race. Sure, one of them might be the best horse, but with so many early type horses in the race, anything can happen, and at the odds SB and Chitu are likely to go off at, neither will be supported by my money.

Also, if SB does go early, he better either get the outright lead, or stay wide, because if he gets anywhere close to the rail, and is toward the front, don't be a bit surprised if he gets blocked in and not allowed to get out until it's too late.

[Stillriledup]

Almost any horse with early speed, at Santa Anita, has a decent chance. We know, going in, that the track will favor speed, that's always been a given there, so, anyone that comes on here after the race and complains that the track favored the speed types, has no right to make such an argument. I think that if Chitu pushes the pace, against as many as 3 or 4 other early/presser type horses, at SA, he's looking at losing any chance he has of winning. Likewise for SB, although he may just have the class to get away with it.

This race could go one of many ways, so at this point, the race is anything but a 2 horse race. Sure, one of them might be the best horse, but with so many early type horses in the race, anything can happen, and at the odds SB and Chitu are likely to go off at, neither will be supported by my money.

Also, if SB does go early, he better either get the outright lead, or stay wide, because if he gets anywhere close to the rail, and is toward the front, don't be a bit surprised if he gets blocked in and not allowed to get out until it's too late.

I get what you're saying, i just think that talentwise, those top 2 favorites are so far superior to whoever is the 3rd best runner, its going to be hard for me to imagine both of them getting outrun by someone else.

If Chitu and SB are both beaten, its because that Midnight Lute of bafferts went right to the front and got loose and kept going. that's the only scenario i could see how one of the top 2 chalks get beat for the win.

[plainolebill]

I'm not going to try to beat Shared Belief. I'll bet a tri with SB on top looking to get some value underneath.

:8: / :1: , :3:, :4: , :6: / :1:, :3: , :4: , :6:

I think Pimpernel gets and holds the lead to the top of the stretch spoiling the party for Chitu and probably Lute. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)

[raybo]

I get what you're saying, i just think that talentwise, those top 2 favorites are so far superior to whoever is the 3rd best runner, its going to be hard for me to imagine both of them getting outrun by someone else.

If Chitu and SB are both beaten, its because that Midnight Lute of bafferts went right to the front and got loose and kept going. that's the only scenario i could see how one of the top 2 chalks get beat for the win.

Possibly, but I think it is more likely that there will be some "collaboration" among the faster early/presser types, especially since a single trainer "has" so many of them. Baffert knows what he has to do, and that is to prevent SB from getting his race. SB is in this race for one reason, IMO, to look better at the end of 2014 than he did after the BCC, so his trainer and jockey know what they have to do, however, their job is tougher than Baffert's, because he has more ammunition in his weapon.

[raybo]

I'm not going to try to beat Shared Belief. I'll bet a tri with SB on top looking to get some value underneath.

:8: / :1: , :3:, :4: , :6: / :1:, :3: , :4: , :6:

No offense, but there won't be much value in that ticket, many people will have the exact same horses covered in the tri, and the super.

If you can't get the 8 off the win line you're probably better off betting nothing at all.

[plainolebill]

I won't make that bet until I see the odds on the board and the exacta probabilities.

Other than Indianapolis, who could be any kind - I am not seeing any value on the win side. If he goes off around 10/1 I'll probably switch to a straight win and exacta.

I don't think Conquest has enough speed to clear this field from the rail and he'll probably get shuffled back.

[zico20]

I'm not going to try to beat Shared Belief. I'll bet a tri with SB on top looking to get some value underneath.

:8: / :1: , :3:, :4: , :6: / :1:, :3: , :4: , :6:

I think Pimpernel gets and holds the lead to the top of the stretch spoiling the party for Chitu and probably Lute. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)

If I were you I would order in a pizza and not make that bet. At least you would get something out of it. Chitu doesn't need the lead. He didn't quit way back in March at a mile and an eighth without the lead. He is a much better horse now than then. He will sit right off of Pimpernal and blow by him at the top of the stretch. Chitu never quits and he won't here. A very fast horse with stamina is rare.

If you want value throw Shared Belief out and hope he doesn't fire today. Your chances are still very poor but at least a little bit improved. Actually, skip the race and find a 12 horse field where the favorite is 4-1 and all 12 look like crap. There will be value in that race. Just remember, the only value is when you cash a ticket. Throwing Chitu out is a waste of money, IMO.

[arw629]

Can I make a bold prediction that Chitu goes off favorite here? I'm not seeing what a lot of you are seeing in this race...I agree with the comment that the :1: will probably get shuffled back at the break...The other Baffert horses aren't quite as quick out of the gate as Chitu so I think they sit a stalking trip that turns into chasing a runaway leader in Chitu....I don't see SB working out a trip that puts him into the winner circle and I am a horse player that loves taking a route horse on a cutback to 6.5-7f....not with this pace scenario on this surface

[zico20]

Can I make a bold prediction that Chitu goes off favorite here? I'm not seeing what a lot of you are seeing in this race...I agree with the comment that the :1: will probably get shuffled back at the break...The other Baffert horses aren't quite as quick out of the gate as Chitu so I think they sit a stalking trip that turns into chasing a runaway leader in Chitu....I don't see SB working out a trip that puts him into the winner circle and I am a horse player that loves taking a route horse on a cutback to 6.5-7f....not with this pace scenario on this surface

No you may NOT make that bold prediction. :D What are you trying to do, kill my super from paying very nicely? Chitu is also a route horse cutting back in distance in a way. Who do you like behind Chitu? I wish we could find out where Indianapolis is running real soon.

[arw629]

No you may NOT make that bold prediction. :D What are you trying to do, kill my super from paying very nicely? Chitu is also a route horse cutting back in distance in a way. Who do you like behind Chitu? I wish we could find out where Indianapolis is running real soon.

I like 3,4,5,8 underneath....I don't play many tri's and supers...usually i just play to win and horizontal bets with the occasional hammer on an exacta if i really like two horses in smaller field

Here is my late pick 4 ticket at santa anita
race 6-1,4,8,9,10
race 7-1,2,5,9,10,11,12
race 8-2
race 9-1,3,4,7,8,9,10

$122.50 for 50 cents

[arw629]

According to Brisnet, Indianapolis is not scratched as of 10:57 ET

[zico20]

My ADW has the scratches listed for Santa Anita and it shows Indianapolis IS running today. That changes a few things for me. Of course I still like Chitu but I am not sure how good Indianapolis is. I do like him. I think he has talent and could surely be in the super. Now I have to go back and redo all my supers again.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I look at this race and I see 4 horses kicking down the barn that will press a hot pace.

:2: Chitu, :3: Indianapolis, :5: Pimpernel, and :6: Midnight Hawk are all coming in off solid to monster works. I expect at least 3 of the 4 to set a really hot pace that could well be extremely hot. Possibly 43 and change at 4 Fs?

I also see these horses wanting to stretch a lead at 7F to get out and put as much distance between them and :8: Shared Belief as they can.

As crazy as this sounds, I'll be looking for something off the pace at 7F in here at the paved highway that is Santa Anita.

The :7: Tamarando has my eye a bit as he has been working extremely well and is coming in for his 3rd race off the layoff. I've been waiting for this horse to improve since his 2YO campaign through the Cash Call. He hasn't really done much since, and could well be sitting on a big race. Obviously I'll need a big price on him as the risk is huge. I see heavy money going elsewhere and the :7: going off at 20/1 or better.

At the very least, I'll include the :7: Tamarando in exotics and will likely include the :9: Diamond Bachelor on the bottom end of exotics at a hopeful 40/1 or larger odds.

[Secondbest]

Class wins out.Shared Belief going away.

[raybo]

Class wins out.Shared Belief going away.

"Class", depending on how you define it, can indeed trump everything, but you also have to look at what the horse has physically presented thus far, plus any improvement you think will be exhibited by him today, and project that into the fields' dynamics, in order to make a prediction of whether or not the horse can even compete enough early to put itself in a position to assert that "class". In this situation, and against the probable dynamics of this field, I have doubts that SB's "class" can overcome all the variables that can be presented to him by the field in this race.

I agree, SB has a "seemingly" huge class advantage here. But, the running styles of the others, along with their fractional velocities at sprint distances, are quite harrowing for a horse like SB, at least regarding how he has run his races, and his "best" fractional velocities, thus far. Sometimes the hard data simply trumps "class". Sometimes, asking a horse to do something it has never done before, just doesn't work.

[zico20]

The :5: Pimpernal is scratched. This changes things a bit.

[zico20]

Chitu should be the controlling speed now. I see Indianapolis sitting right off him the entire way. Come on Chitu, run the race of your life. I will be okay if Shared Belief beats him. I need the :2: :8: :6: :3: in some order to be in the super. If the :4: runs 4th I may still have it.

Can't watch the race live as I have to leave to go see a concert. Good luck to everyone who has Chitu!

[Secondbest]

The whole class arguement was on another thread so I don't want to get into that here.I understand the beat the 3-5 shot I try to do that all the time.But I believe this the wrong spot for that.Grade 1 horses win grade 1 races.As the only grade 1 winner here plus he is an improving 3yr old gelding means a lot.
Since I'm not betting the race I hope you prove me wrong and collect.
good luck

[classhandicapper]

I think Shared Belief is very clearly the best horse. IMO, you need a good reason to want to play against him.

1. He's cutting back from 10F to 7F, there's not a ton of sprint quality speed in the race, and they probably have bigger races in mind early next year than the Malibu.

2. It's at least worth asking if he could be a tad better on synthetic than dirt given that he's done most of his racing and working on synthetic.

Is that enough to take a shot against him?

I'd say "no" unless you have reason to think someone else is going to step up and run a much better race. Chitu seems like the most likely alternative because he came back sharp, he has some speed, and he's working very well. But I don't expect much of a price on him either. He has to beat a horse who has clearly been better to date.

[Ocala Mike]

Going with INDIANAPOLIS to step up. BC race not true - Mikie asleep at the gate. :3: :8: :2:.

[Tom]

Only one horse has won at 7 - Chitu.
Only one horse has won a G1 or G2 stake - Shared Belief - 4 of them.
On HTR figs, the 5 of SB's figs are better than all of the rest of the field.
Only two horse come close, one race each - Chitu and Midnight Hawk.

And, a major factor, Baffert has nothing outside of SB to crowd him today.

I see no value in this race, for betting or for HOY.

[Robert Fischer]

$56 WIN on Shared Belief
$2 win 5plc 15show on 9 Diamond Bachelor
$2 Exacta....... 8 // 9 ($2)
$1 Exacta... 2,3,8 // 9 ($3)
$1 Exacta........ 2 // 3,8,9 ($3)
$2 Trifecta....... 8 // 2,3 // 9 ($4)
$1 Trifecta.. 2,3,8 // 2,3,8 // 9 ($6)
$1 Trifecta....... 2 // 3,8 // 9 ($2)
$1 Sexacta BOX 69 ($2)

TOTAL: $100 Wagered

[Stillriledup]

"Fast early pace"? :D

[Stillriledup]

Yikes, that was ugly for SB, beat a really common horse by a half length with the guy throwing the kitchen sink at him.

Chitu bad too, given the race on a gold speed track with 23 change and couldn't hold off the cruddy 1, a horse who can barely break 80 in the beyer dept?

[cj]

Yikes, that was ugly for SB, beat a really common horse by a half length with the guy throwing the kitchen sink at him.

Chitu bad too, given the race on a gold speed track with 23 change and couldn't hold off the cruddy 1, a horse who can barely break 80 in the beyer dept?

Ugly? The Baffert horse slowed it way down, turned it into a two furlong race. I think Shared Belief showed a lot winning, but I wouldn't trust anything the others did, won't see that race dynamic very often.

Here is how the raw (before I do track variants) looked for the two races:

La Brea:

1/4 167
1/2 155
Fin 120

Malibu:

1/4 111
1/2 127
Fin 142

[dnlgfnk]

That just shows the deceptiveness of timed fractions, as Chitu was energetically
roused leaving the chute, like many inside speed horses. Then just before the quarter, he was roused again to ward off Indianapolis briefly.

Shared Belief will work hard in any race where his main rival(s) is an early speed factor, based upon this race and the Awesome Again stake.

[cj]

That just shows the deceptiveness of timed fractions, as Chitu was energetically
roused leaving the chute, like many inside speed horses. Then just before the quarter, he was roused again to ward off Indianapolis briefly.

Shared Belief will work hard in any race where his main rival(s) is an early speed factor, based upon this race and the Awesome Again stake.

There was nothing deceiving about the fractions today. Both Shared Belief and Taris probably ran better than traditional speed figures will suggest.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought Mike Smith had a pretty decent ride. He let the horse break, and he realized the slow start and he took a position that gave his horse a fair shot, if he was indeed much the best.

Chitu needs about 8.5 furlongs IMO.

He lets the field come to him at the top of the stretch.

You could argue that Baffert's decision to enter Indianapolis maybe stressed Chitu unnecessarily, by providing a rival to accompany him approaching the turn, but I don't think that carries any weight. Chitu is simply more of a Grade 3 horse, maybe a Grade 2 when he gets to control a route race.

[Robert Fischer]

That just shows the deceptiveness of timed fractions, as Chitu was energetically
roused leaving the chute, like many inside speed horses. Then just before the quarter, he was roused again to ward off Indianapolis briefly.

Shared Belief will work hard in any race where his main rival(s) is an early speed factor, based upon this race and the Awesome Again stake.
These horses develop styles and habits. Chitu was urged today, and he was urged in most of his starts.
I can't give him any added credit for it.

But if he gets placed in a situation where his mediocre break, and his mediocre cruising speed, aren't going to be significant disadvantages, then he can fully exploit his talent to control the pace and finish with good stamina.

[dnlgfnk]

There was nothing deceiving about the fractions today. Both Shared Belief and Taris probably ran better than traditional speed figures will suggest.

Hi, cj.

I was responding to SRU's apparent contention that, in essence, a Grade 1 quarter mile ought not to be the slowest opening fraction of the day if there is any speed in the field.

I don't invest in timed fractions (though I rely significantly on speed figures to understand the public's opinion) after years of visually witnessing the scenario I described in today's Malibu. There is something to a horse being urged before settling into stride that can cause a "spinning-his-wheels" effect, whereby he doesn't accelerate to the requested pace level for a bit of ground. I rely instead on the finish of races, attempting to explain pace outcomes retroactively with the philosophy that "it's not how fast a horse runs. It's how he runs fast that counts".

I agree that Shared Belief ran better than his traditional figure will indicate, because with his developing lack of first-flight early speed, he works hard lately in the middle stages to keep pace with dangerous speed, yet shows impressive stamina.

[Tom]

Just mt 2 cents, but I am more impressed by a horse who drives and digs in and refuses to lose, like SB did today than one who takes the lead and wins off by open lengths.

I was very impressed today.

SB is the one I look most forward to seeing as a 4yo.

[dnlgfnk]

These horses develop styles and habits. Chitu was urged today, and he was urged in most of his starts.
I can't give him any added credit for it.

But if he gets placed in a situation where his mediocre break, and his mediocre cruising speed, aren't going to be significant disadvantages, then he can fully exploit his talent to control the pace and finish with good stamina.

Hello, Robert.

Sure--at the right price while being, say, the lone speed and breaking from the outside versus a pp#1 Shared Belief in a rematch, perhaps.

I wasn't crediting Chitu as much as offering a possible explanation to SRU for the naked :23 quarter.

[dnlgfnk]

Just mt 2 cents, but I am more impressed by a horse who drives and digs in and refuses to lose, like SB did today than one who takes the lead and wins off by open lengths.

I was very impressed today.

SB is the one I look most forward to seeing as a 4yo.

Tom, I used to do that- be impressed shortly after a race...sometimes during it.

But being persuaded to join the value players, I now want to exploit Shared Belief's lack of high early speed that draws him into significant effort in the middle stages, which can leave him vulnerable to the types who almost beat him today.

[Robert Fischer]

Hello, Robert.

Sure--at the right price ...
Your observations of trips have always been astute.

[Robert Fischer]

The wildcard here is, 1 Conquest Two Step. Nobody is going to be betting this horse, after all he's 15/1 on the morning line, right? Does this horse offer value? Well, value is determined by odds and probability (chances of winning). The price is certainly going to be there, but is the probability? Well, he projects to be 2nd at the 1st and 2nd call, so his probability doesn't look too bad yet, does it? But, what can he do in the final segment? Can he stick around late?

Yes!! He has the best FR3 high velocity in the field! Only pace and pressure will determine if he's able to assert that late kick.
Raybo, Great call on Conquest Two Step. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Raybo, Great call on Conquest Two Step. :ThmbUp:

Yes, amazing call. Hopefully he cashed in on some exactas or tris.

[1GCFAN]

Yes Raybo, Great call on Conquest Two Step I used the 1 in the super and was rewarded.

[raybo]

Raybo, Great call on Conquest Two Step. :ThmbUp:

Thanks guys! The scratch of Pimpernel changed the complexion of the race. He was my pace presser. Without him in the race the pace picture looked more mundane, which certainly would help some horses that would have had a tougher time otherwise, IMO.

Shared Belief got a very good ride today! He was much closer to the leaders than I thought he would have been with Pimpernel in the race, and that worked out well for him. It was obvious early that SB was going to be a problem late, he was, after all, the "Class" of the race by a large margin, and ranked 1st in Power too (which is a combination of several performance factors).

I hope some people did read my thoughts on Conquest Two Step, and had him in the exotics. I feared that the extra 1/2 to 1 furlong over his previous win distances might hurt him a bit if the pace was not fast enough, but he handled the distance well. I'm just sorry he got such a bad jump out of the gate, again, that has been a lot of his problems in his career thus far, he just doesn't always jump well from the gate. The fact that he worked his way into contention after being so far back early and on the rail throughout, commands my respect, if not that of others. He ran a hell of a race against some pretty decent horses, and it took a very determined effort by SB to beat him. Both CTS and SB did a heck of a job clearing the leaders coming out of the turn, either could have lost the race right there. Great rides by both jockeys! SB stayed wide throughout which is a testament to Mike Smith, he kept him out of trouble, away from the rail, very smart!

Chitu ran about what I thought he would, I gave him less of a chance of winning until Pimpernel scratched.

I, fortunately, did not bet the race after the scratch of Pimpernel, that gave SB too much room to craft a good trip, and I just wasn't interested in betting the superfecta with SB on top, at all. There was too much of a chance that the payout would not meet my minimum, if CTS didn't fire and missed the top 3. My minimum is $300 for a dollar super, and if he didn't finish in the top 3 that $300 minimum was in jeopardy with SB on top.

[Exotic1]

My post from my forum (I'm putting myself out there on this one, so take your shots if you have to, but just stating what the hard data shows, and not really trying to predict unusual things happening pace wise, which certainly could happen):

This Friday is the Malibu GR1 stakes at Santa Anita. It brings together a bunch of decent horses, but goes at 7F. That is the kicker, as almost everyone on the planet will be betting Shared Belief, who certainly looks like the best horse in the race. But, Shared Belief hasn't run a sprint race since May, and that one was at Golden Gate with Russell Baze aboard. Of course Baze is going to win that one, without much doubt, GG is HIS track and SB had already won 3 races in a row by that time, 2 at Hollywood park and 1 at GG. All his races since, have been at least 9f routes.

So, with SB likely going off at 3/5 or so, do you bet such a horse, who will not be anywhere near the early lead, unless the pace is very slow, and I don't see that happening. Bob Baffert has 4 horses entered in this race, 3 of which will be up front early, according to running styles and early velocities. They are: 5 Pimpernel, 2 Chitu, and 6 Midnight Hawk. And Mark Casse has the other up front horse, 1 Conquest Two Step.

The velocity order from the start to 1st call that RS is projecting, using only each horses' sprint races, is:

5 Pimpernel (Baffert - Garcia) (59.03 fps) - Scr
1 Conquest Two Step (Casse - Talamo) (58.70 fps)
2 Chitu (Baffert - Rosario) (57.46 fps)
3 Indianapolis (Baffert - Stevens) (56.18)

What does Baffert have up his sleeve with 3 of the 4 early horses being his? Does he order them to slow down the pace and hope one of them survives to win? Or, does he order them to contest each other early, which could bring the "off the pace" Shared Belief into the picture later on? Hmmmmm---?

Well, let's look at what the picture is from the start to the 2nd call.

5 Pimpernel (Baffert - Garcia) (59.03 fps) - Scr
1 Conquest Two Step (Casse - Talamo) (58.76 fps)
2 Chitu (Baffert - Rosario) (57.89 fps)
6 Midnight Hawk (Baffert - Espinosa) (57.71 fps)

We still have 3 of the 4 projected leaders being Baffert horses, with Midnight Hawk picking up the pace by that call. The same scenario we had in the 1st fraction, is still there at the 2nd call. The wildcard here is, 1 Conquest Two Step. Nobody is going to be betting this horse, after all he's 15/1 on the morning line, right? Does this horse offer value? Well, value is determined by odds and probability (chances of winning). The price is certainly going to be there, but is the probability? Well, he projects to be 2nd at the 1st and 2nd call, so his probability doesn't look too bad yet, does it? But, what can he do in the final segment? Can he stick around late?

Yes!! He has the best FR3 high velocity in the field! Only pace and pressure will determine if he's able to assert that late kick.

Here's how it shakes out from after the 1st call to the finish:

1 Conquest Two Step (59.39 fps)
5 Pimpernel (59.14 fps)
3 Indianapolis (57.92 fps)
2 Chitu (57.42 fps)

So, from start to finish, here's what we have:

1 Conquest Two Step (59.38 fps)
5 Pimpernel (59.14 fps)
3 Indianapolis (57.92 fps)
2 Chitu (57.42 fps)

Where is Shared Belief????

FR1 - 7th at 55.55 fps
FR1+FR2 - 9th at 56.21 fps
FR2+FR3 - 7th at 56.70 fps
Start to finish - 7th at 56.70 fps


Ok, Ok, I know that running styles and velocities don't tell the whole story in every race. Shared Belief has the top Class rating (by a bunch), and the top Power figure (but not by much, only 2 points over Chitu), and has 3 G1 wins, 1 G2 win, and 1 Gr3 win in 8 races. But, in this race, if the pace is decently but not overly fast, I just don't see any way he can get to the leaders by the end of the race. I just don't see how that can happen, unless things are run totally different than what I see happening, especially at Santa Anita where early speed has always been King! If you have a decent speed horse running at Santa Anita are you NOT gong to use that speed? Of course you are, that is just common sense. You just don't want to run his wheels completely off.

So, I see Baffert sending his early horses, but not murderously fast, just at a nice clip. If that happens, he only has to beat Conquest Two Step to win this one.

Shared Belief? I wouldn't bet him to win, with your money!!

WTF !!!. This is not allowed. You can't pick 70-1 shots in G1 races. This is not some maiden race where Conquest Two Step just happened to run. UFB. Incredible. I would be just as amazed if the horse went off 20/1- he ran that well. Good job quantifying the running lines.

[classhandicapper]

The way they finished there wasn't much chance for Shared Belief to blow them out late. I thought he ran well given the conditions, but I think the case for him being a bit better on synthetic is growing.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Thanks guys! The scratch of Pimpernel changed the complexion of the race. He was my pace presser. Without him in the race the pace picture looked more mundane, which certainly would help some horses that would have had a tougher time otherwise, IMO.

Shared Belief got a very good ride today! He was much closer to the leaders than I thought he would have been with Pimpernel in the race, and that worked out well for him. It was obvious early that SB was going to be a problem late, he was, after all, the "Class" of the race by a large margin, and ranked 1st in Power too (which is a combination of several performance factors).

I hope some people did read my thoughts on Conquest Two Step, and had him in the exotics. I feared that the extra 1/2 to 1 furlong over his previous win distances might hurt him a bit if the pace was not fast enough, but he handled the distance well. I'm just sorry he got such a bad jump out of the gate, again, that has been a lot of his problems in his career thus far, he just doesn't always jump well from the gate. The fact that he worked his way into contention after being so far back early and on the rail throughout, commands my respect, if not that of others. He ran a hell of a race against some pretty decent horses, and it took a very determined effort by SB to beat him. Both CTS and SB did a heck of a job clearing the leaders coming out of the turn, either could have lost the race right there. Great rides by both jockeys! SB stayed wide throughout which is a testament to Mike Smith, he kept him out of trouble, away from the rail, very smart!

Chitu ran about what I thought he would, I gave him less of a chance of winning until Pimpernel scratched.

I, fortunately, did not bet the race after the scratch of Pimpernel, that gave SB too much room to craft a good trip, and I just wasn't interested in betting the superfecta with SB on top, at all. There was too much of a chance that the payout would not meet my minimum, if CTS didn't fire and missed the top 3. My minimum is $300 for a dollar super, and if he didn't finish in the top 3 that $300 minimum was in jeopardy with SB on top.

I'd like to personally thank you for keeping me away from this race. :ThmbUp:

After the La Brea ran in a wicked pace with Taris folding up shop in the last furlong, I really started to retreat on the 'hot pace' scenario. For some odd reason Santa Anita wasn't a huge bias towards speed yesterday. And with the 3 Baffert horses likely controlling the speed, and seeing what happened in the 6th with the front end speed at 7F, it thankfully scared me away. I figured they would learn from that race and crank it down a bit.

As others have stated, nice work on the :1: Conquest Two Step. If he isn't crowed by Chitu and Indianapolis he likely wins that race. Very game effort, and Shared Belief was lucky to hold on to that victory.

[Secondbest]

Thanks guys! The scratch of Pimpernel changed the complexion of the race. He was my pace presser. Without him in the race the pace picture looked more mundane, which certainly would help some horses that would have had a tougher time otherwise, IMO.

Shared Belief got a very good ride today! He was much closer to the leaders than I thought he would have been with Pimpernel in the race, and that worked out well for him. It was obvious early that SB was going to be a problem late, he was, after all, the "Class" of the race by a large margin, and ranked 1st in Power too (which is a combination of several performance factors).

I hope some people did read my thoughts on Conquest Two Step, and had him in the exotics. I feared that the extra 1/2 to 1 furlong over his previous win distances might hurt him a bit if the pace was not fast enough, but he handled the distance well. I'm just sorry he got such a bad jump out of the gate, again, that has been a lot of his problems in his career thus far, he just doesn't always jump well from the gate. The fact that he worked his way into contention after being so far back early and on the rail throughout, commands my respect, if not that of others. He ran a hell of a race against some pretty decent horses, and it took a very determined effort by SB to beat him. Both CTS and SB did a heck of a job clearing the leaders coming out of the turn, either could have lost the race right there. Great rides by both jockeys! SB stayed wide throughout which is a testament to Mike Smith, he kept him out of trouble, away from the rail, very smart!

Chitu ran about what I thought he would, I gave him less of a chance of winning until Pimpernel scratched.

I, fortunately, did not bet the race after the scratch of Pimpernel, that gave SB too much room to craft a good trip, and I just wasn't interested in betting the superfecta with SB on top, at all. There was too much of a chance that the payout would not meet my minimum, if CTS didn't fire and missed the top 3. My minimum is $300 for a dollar super, and if he didn't finish in the top 3 that $300 minimum was in jeopardy with SB on top.

Very nice call on conquest. Too bad you didn't bet.A 250 triple with both favorites on the board and an 80 exacta. I should have listened to you.

[cj]

The way they finished there wasn't much chance for Shared Belief to blow them out late. I thought he ran well given the conditions, but I think the case for him being a bit better on synthetic is growing.

I would go even farther, there was NO CHANCE he was going to win easily. It was basically a three furlong race, at most.

[raybo]

WTF !!!. This is not allowed. You can't pick 70-1 shots in G1 races. This is not some maiden race where Conquest Two Step just happened to run. UFB. Incredible. I would be just as amazed if the horse went off 20/1- he ran that well. Good job quantifying the running lines.

LOL - I don't care if a horse is 20/1 or 70/1, if the hard data says he can run in this field I'll be on him, if the "overall ticket" has value. Unfortunately, with Pimpernel scratching, that put SB back in the picture as a strong win contender, so I backed off the bet completely.

This is the part that I was afraid of:

So, with SB likely going off at 3/5 or so, do you bet such a horse, who will not be anywhere near the early lead, unless the pace is very slow, and I don't see that happening. Bob Baffert has 4 horses entered in this race, 3 of which will be up front early, according to running styles and early velocities. They are: 5 Pimpernel, 2 Chitu, and 6 Midnight Hawk. And Mark Casse has the other up front horse, 1 Conquest Two Step.

But, regarding CTS, sometimes the "classless" land in a field that is not so classy in reality, because of field dynamics, distance, etc. (SB is just getting cranked up at 7f). I can say with quite a bit of confidence that SB was very fortunate to win this one. There are so many things that could have prevented his winning, even with the great trip he got. My hat is off to him, because he really should not have won, when you look at the probabilities of the 1st fraction being that slow. I can almost guarantee you that if Pimpernel had not scratched, we would have seen low 22s in the 1st fraction (maybe even lower, which would have been unfortunate for me) and the order of finish would likely have been different, and the payouts much better. I was chomping at the bit before Pimpernel scratched. That sucked big time, what a shame!

[cj]

Somebody mentioned a fast pace on Twitter, and I responded that it almost assuredly wouldn't happen because all the speed were Baffert horses. I think the slow place was predictable in this case.

[raybo]

Somebody mentioned a fast pace on Twitter, and I responded that it almost assuredly wouldn't happen because all the speed were Baffert horses. I think the slow place was predictable in this case.

Of course you're permitted your opinion, but the horse with the best 1st fraction, and 2nd fraction velocities, scratched. I see no way that the pace would not have been faster in the 1st fraction (at least) had he been in the race, unless he gets a very bad jump from the gate like CTS did. Two of the horses that should have been pressing the pace, or setting it, were not there in the 1st fraction.

[GMB@BP]

The way they finished there wasn't much chance for Shared Belief to blow them out late. I thought he ran well given the conditions, but I think the case for him being a bit better on synthetic is growing.

I think the sample data is too small, though I am not discounting it. It would be nice to see him on another dirt surface other than SA as well.

His dirt races have had some interesting dynamics, only the LA race was traditional. Yesterdays race I agree really is a tough one to judge because there is no way he could have finished faster than he did after that half. I will be against most of these coming back against open horses next year though as their close loss looks a tad dressed up.

[cj]

Of course you're permitted your opinion, but the horse with the best 1st fraction, and 2nd fraction velocities, scratched. I see no way that the pace would not have been faster in the 1st fraction (at least) had he been in the race, unless he gets a very bad jump from the gate like CTS did. Two of the horses that should have been pressing the pace, or setting it, were not there in the 1st fraction.

I just find it hard to believe horses trained by the same guy were going to fight each other. It isn't like Baffert hasn't conspired before to try to beat Shared Belief.

[raybo]

I just find it hard to believe horses trained by the same guy were going to fight each other. It isn't like Baffert hasn't conspired before to try to beat Shared Belief.

Generally I would agree, but the way you beat SB is to put him too far back to catch you. I predicted a "fast but not murderous" pace, for just that reason. If you run 22 and short change in the 1st fraction, SB has to work much too hard to occupy the position he did in the race, and I just don't think Mike would have permitted him to run that fast that early. If he isn't within a couple of lengths at the stretch he doesn't get there in time, IMO.

[Speed Figure]

Generally I would agree, but the way you beat SB is to put him too far back to catch you. I predicted a "fast but not murderous" pace, for just that reason. If you run 22 and short change in the 1st fraction, SB has to work much too hard to occupy the position he did in the race, and I just don't think Mike would have permitted him to run that fast that early. If he isn't within a couple of lengths at the stretch he doesn't get there in time, IMO.
You seem to be saying that SB is a deep closer! he had showed early speed in 2 of his 3 sprint races. Don't let his last race where he had a bad start have you thinking he's a deep closer. In 6 of 8 races he's been within 2 lengths at the 2nd call.

[raybo]

You seem to be saying that SB is a deep closer! he had showed early speed in 2 of his 3 sprint races. Don't let his last race where he had a bad start have you thinking he's a deep closer. In 6 of 8 races he's been within 2 lengths at the 2nd call.

I'm just saying that his best "sprint" fractional velocities put him too far back if the front runners ran their best "sprint" velocities. That didn't happen in this race, and I believe that it didn't happen because Pimpernel was not in the race. He was the one horse that would have forced a faster 1st fraction pace, IMO.

5 Pimpernel (Baffert - Garcia) (59.03 fps)
1 Conquest Two Step (Casse - Talamo) (58.70 fps)
2 Chitu (Baffert - Rosario) (57.46 fps)

8 Shared Belief (55.55 fps)

59.03 fps equates to a sub-23 second 1st fraction. And at SA that would be considered normal for a sprint race of this class and pace dynamics. A 23+ 1st fraction in a race with that many early/presser types, of this class, is at least a normal expectation, if not a guaranteed one.

[raybo]

Sorry, I made a mistake in the last post:

A 23+ 1st fraction in a race with that many early/presser types, of this class, is at least a normal expectation, if not a guaranteed one.

should have been:

A sub-23 second 1st fraction in a race with that many early/presser types, of this class, is at least a normal expectation, if not a guaranteed one.

[Robert Fischer]

Somebody mentioned a fast pace on Twitter, and I responded that it almost assuredly wouldn't happen because all the speed were Baffert horses. I think the slow place was predictable in this case.

This was key in trying to narrow down the likely result of the vertical exotics.

Shared Belief is known for his finishing, but he's led at the 'stretch call' in all of his wins prior to the Malibu.

In my mind's eye I saw Shared Belief tackling Chitu at the stretch call. And at the same time he would have been striding in front of Chitu's stablemate Indianapolis effectively shuffling him back.

So I looked for a horse that was going to slowly follow Shared Belief's (more forward) race 'flow' and make enough of a last-move to impact the trifecta.

Diamond Bachelor was that horse for me.

Really an error by me to not acknowledge that the chances of a very fast pace were slim, and that the pace would likely be moderate or slow.

I didn't adapt my projection of Shared Belief (or Diamond Bachelor) to a slow pace.


$2 Exacta....... 8 // 9 ($2)
$2 Trifecta....... 8 // 2,3 // 9 ($4)

[Tom]

No way Baffert was going to allow a speed duel.
So far, Barrert has proven the only way to stop SB is to knock him off his feet at the break.

[classhandicapper]

I didn't see much of a chance of a fast pace in the Malibu. There were no pure speed types in the race. There were horses that had some sprint speed, but they didn't seem likely to compromise each other's chances, especially because Baffert trained them.

I thought the probable slow pace was a small risk factor for SB. He got out of the gate especially well. That helped him get good position.

[raybo]

No way Baffert was going to allow a speed duel.
So far, Barrert has proven the only way to stop SB is to knock him off his feet at the break.

Do you really believe all the stuff you post, or are you just being a--, as usual?

[Tom]

I meant that. SB has only been beaten when fouled.
Do you dispute that?

[raybo]

I meant that. SB has only been beaten when fouled.
Do you dispute that?

That's unfortunate. I wish you well in the future.

[Speed Figure]

That's unfortunate. I wish you well in the future.
What's unfortunate about that? I feel he's right. You said the way you beat SB is to put him too far back to catch you, but the horse has never lost without having that bad start in the BCC. Fractional velocities don't matter for a horse like SB! he has shown he can win in whatever type of race he's in.

[Tom]

What he said.

[raybo]

What's unfortunate about that? I feel he's right. You said the way you beat SB is to put him too far back to catch you, but the horse has never lost without having that bad start in the BCC. Fractional velocities don't matter for a horse like SB! he has shown he can win in whatever type of race he's in.

You also have the right to your opinion. The part of Tom's post that I disliked was his inference that Baffert ordered Bayern's jokey to intentionally interfere with SB. That is not what the videos show, especially the overhead. It's just sad that some people are so jaded and biased regarding their takes on certain events that happen every day of the week.

[Tom]

And that is your opinion.

[cj]

You also have the right to your opinion. The part of Tom's post that I disliked was his inference that Baffert ordered Bayern's jokey to intentionally interfere with SB. That is not what the videos show, especially the overhead. It's just sad that some people are so jaded and biased regarding their takes on certain events that happen every day of the week.

I think the Fed Biz incident in the Awesome Again is why people think it is possible. Can you blame them? I don't think it was an order or intentional, but I understand the thinking.

[raybo]

I think the Fed Biz incident in the Awesome Again is why people think it is possible. Can you blame them? I don't think it was an order or intentional, but I understand the thinking.

Understanding the thinking is one thing, thinking that way is another. Conspiracy theories work well for you, when you're looking for an excuse.

[Tom]

I hate to tell you , Mr Know-it-all, I not only think it was not intentional, but I think it was probably impossible to do.

You just assume you know everything - you don't.
The point was, no one was going to stop SB no what pace tactics they tried.

I do think the Awesome Again deal was Baffert's instructions. No one will convince me otherwise.

[classhandicapper]

I can see making the case that if the pace was a bit faster, SB might have been further back and it would have been tougher for him to get up because a mildly faster pace would have had little impact on the leaders given they went slow. So SB would have had more ground to make up on similarly fresh horses.

However, setting aside Fed Biz and Bayern, if I was the trainer or owner of Chitu and Indianapolis and they actually hooked up and went fast, neither rider would ever ride for me again unless both horses were rank. Neither of those horses is a pure speed horse. They both are more of what I would call stalkers. IMO, there was little chance that pace was going to be fast with or without trainer instructions.

[Tom]

That final fraction for the Malibu was the 6th fastest of 244 at 7 furlongs since they tore up the poly track, and SB gained a length.

Races run in 45.2 to the half normally come home over 122.8.