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View Full Version : R Rodriguez dominated at 1M 70 Yds @AQU -- 2013 to 2014!!!


TheOracle
12-07-2014, 01:16 PM
R Rodriguez was very dominant last year and for the beginning part of this year on the Inner Dirt track going 1 Mile and 70 Yards.

Since January of last year going into to this year his horses have won 18 out of 49 races at 1 Mile and 70 Yards which is 36.7%

If you had played his horses just to win in this situation for $2 it would have cost you $98 and you would have won $143.60 giving you a return of $45.60 which is a 46% return on your money.

If you had wagered $2 to win, place and show on his horses it would have cost you $294 and you would have won $354.90 giving you a return of $60.90 which is a 20% return on your money.


Interesting to note that his races that were Allowance Optional Claiming* made up more more than half of his starts at 1 Mile and 70 Yards and half of his wins came in these type of races.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/r rodr msevnty.jpg

Interesting to note that his races that were Allowance Optional Claiming* made up more more than half of his starts at 1 Mile and 70 Yards and half of his wins came in these type of races.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/r rodr msevntyalwopcl.jpg

Also notice how the percent return on investment is higher here for win, place and show which is at 29% for $2 wagering.

Hopefully, he can do the same to complete the season at Aqueduct!!!

*I grouped all Optional Claiming races together as Allowance Optional Claming (i.e. Optional Claiming, Starter Optional Claiming, etc.)

cj
12-07-2014, 07:46 PM
These are the kind of "stats" that have no meaning going forward, and are very likely to lead someone believing in them to losing money.

TheOracle
12-08-2014, 12:03 PM
R Rodriguez has 2 horses entered at 1 Mile and 70 Yards on Wednesday at Aqueduct.

Race 6
#2 Abilio

Race 9
#3 Cash Buyer

Let's see what happens!!

DeltaLover
12-08-2014, 12:14 PM
R Rodriguez has 2 horses entered at 1 Mile and 70 Yards on Wednesday at Aqueduct.

Race 6
#2 Abilio

Race 9
#3 Cash Buyer

Let's see what happens!!

What will happen on Wednesday can not prove anything.

IMHO obvious trainer statistics is not the way to bet horses, since the sample is really tiny and subject to regression to the mean. It is trivial to go through the recent historical results and try to detect trends and patterns; still all these conclusions belong in the category of 'gambler's fallacy' having no real betting value.. The game is indeed beatable, but it needs way more labour and thinking rather than rely on simplistic approaches like this..

TheOracle
12-10-2014, 11:21 PM
R Rodriguez went 0 for 2 today at 1 Mile and 70
Race 6
#2 Abilio

Race 9
#3 Cash Buyer

Let's see what happens tomorrow with these at 1 Mile and 70:
Race 1
#7 Solly's Mischief

Race 7
#7 Succesful Brothers