Gotta Love Maggie

[bello]

Race 1 at the Big A I thought the 6 was a mortal lock. Of course the #5 getting bet off the layoff was cause for concern, especially getting hit to odds on first time off the weeds. Well Maggie took a stand and said the #5 was too chunky for her liking off the layoff. Than they showed the horse and she was just plain FAT.

Maggie, thanks again. I do my own handicapping but you are the one and only public analyst that I can hang my hat on based on your reading of conditioning and body language.

#6 wins for fun by 7....and 3-1 was an absolute gift. Odds on chunky #5 off the board at 1-1

[horses4courses]

She has an excellent eye for horses :ThmbUp:

[onefast99]

She has commented a lot on the physicality of horses prior to the races she does a great job.

[EMD4ME]

She has become an INDESPENSIBLE employee at NYRA. Super talented, nice and refreshing.

[Stillriledup]

She has become an INDESPENSIBLE employee at NYRA. Super talented, nice and refreshing.

No doubt.

[Secondbest]

She has become an INDESPENSIBLE employee at NYRA. Super talented, nice and refreshing.
Agree

[EMD4ME]

I'll also add: she doesn't lie or make stuff up. I love that. I can't tell you how many times she says I love this horse for today because he/she is physically meant for turf sprints and then 3 weeks later will be consistent in her remarks about an individual runner. I mark down what she says in the paddock in my formulator and she's consistent. Major credibility there.

[JustRalph]

She has become an INDESPENSIBLE employee at NYRA. Super talented, nice and refreshing.

Those don't exist

[westny]

She has commented a lot on the physicality of horses prior to the races she does a great job.

When Maggie comments positively on the physicality of long shots in a race...take a good look.

[Ocala Mike]

All good comments about Maggie. I missed the :6: / :2: exacta in that race, getting split by the :4: , but caught a nice :6: / :6: double with the turf to dirt horse in the 2nd.

Did anyone but me, however, see the start and come away thinking that the :6: horse seemed to get a 2-3 length jump on the field when the gates opened? Almost looked like his gate opened a split second sooner than the others. but maybe he was leaning forward at just the right time.

[Big Peps]

All good comments about Maggie. I missed the :6: / :2: exacta in that race, getting split by the :4: , but caught a nice :6: / :6: double with the turf to dirt horse in the 2nd.

Did anyone but me, however, see the start and come away thinking that the :6: horse seemed to get a 2-3 length jump on the field when the gates opened? Almost looked like his gate opened a split second sooner than the others. but maybe he was leaning forward at just the right time.

I loved the 6 there and then listened to Maggie as well and had the horse singled on the pick 5, then put a win bet on 6 as well, when it broke that quickly out of the gate I knew I had the right horse but would agree the jump out of the gate almost looked like a gift

[Canarsie]

Lets also give credit to the guy that hired (or was influential) her.

Five stars out of five for both of them.

[bello]

Lets also give credit to the guy that hired (or was influential) her.

Five stars out of five for both of them.
Yep, someone from NYRA must have been watching the Colonial Downs feed a few years back where she started showcasing body language/fitness angle. Great for Colonial since 90% of the races were on the weeds so knowing who had a "turf hoof" was key.

[EMD4ME]

Question: I'm sure Maggie gives her thoughts at around 12 MTP because of many reasons.

Obviously one of them is a need to show the pan replay and head on replay and of course to give her time to observe the horses in the paddock.

Is part of the reason also because it's only fair to NOT say a horse needs 1 AND thus giving someone the final "push" to claim a horse (because the horse won't break the condition today, i.e. Maiden Claiming)?

She doesn't speak often (I'd say 90%) for claiming races. I'm more asking about maiden claiming races.

[xinyi]

Is part of the reason also because it's only fair to NOT say a horse needs 1 AND thus giving someone the final "push" to claim a horse (because the horse won't break the condition today, i.e. Maiden Claiming)?

You think owners'/trainers' decisions are influenced by her paddock comments? Interesting

[EMD4ME]

You think owners'/trainers' decisions are influenced by her paddock comments? Interesting

Not necessarily BUT I wonder if it's done to MAKE sure no one hears a horse needs one, looks weak etc.

I think I prefaced in that in my post. Sorry you didn't read it that way.

[Ruffian1]

Question: I'm sure Maggie gives her thoughts at around 12 MTP because of many reasons.

Obviously one of them is a need to show the pan replay and head on replay and of course to give her time to observe the horses in the paddock.

Is part of the reason also because it's only fair to NOT say a horse needs 1 AND thus giving someone the final "push" to claim a horse (because the horse won't break the condition today, i.e. Maiden Claiming)?

She doesn't speak often (I'd say 90%) for claiming races. I'm more asking about maiden claiming races.
IMO no.
Some trainers claim without ever looking at the horse. Just on paper. Others are all over them and keep detailed notes from race to race.
Trainers , other than inferior ones, can see for themselves .
Love MAggie though. Known her since she was a baby and she's the greatest.
Hope that helps.

[Tom]

Question: I'm sure Maggie gives her thoughts at around 12 MTP because of many reasons.

Obviously one of them is a need to show the pan replay and head on replay and of course to give her time to observe the horses in the paddock.

Is part of the reason also because it's only fair to NOT say a horse needs 1 AND thus giving someone the final "push" to claim a horse (because the horse won't break the condition today, i.e. Maiden Claiming)?

She doesn't speak often (I'd say 90%) for claiming races. I'm more asking about maiden claiming races.

When else would she give a pre-race prattle?
Timing seems pretty much set for her.

[xinyi]

Not necessarily BUT I wonder if it's done to MAKE sure no one hears a horse needs one, looks weak etc.

I think I prefaced in that in my post. Sorry you didn't read it that way.
I'm still getting that you think there are connections out there that would make decisions based on her comments. And NYRA wants to prevent this by carefully alotting her segment.

[EMD4ME]

I'm still getting that you think there are connections out there that would make decisions based on her comments. And NYRA wants to prevent this by carefully alotting her segment.

Was just wondering if that's a factor. That's all. Not critiquing NYRA for it. Not complimenting them. Was just wondering. That's all.

[EMD4ME]

When else would she give a pre-race prattle?
Timing seems pretty much set for her.
16 MTP possibly. I think the claim rule says claims must be in by 10 MTP. Was just a random thought I had as I studied a horse set to run wed.

Horse was in for a maiden claiming tag recently off a layoff and Maggie said will definitely need one. Was just wondering , if I was an owner and had intentions of buying that horse, that I might get the final push to put the claim slip in hearing that the horse needs a race. (Not breaking his maiden that day).

[EMD4ME]

IMO no.
Some trainers claim without ever looking at the horse. Just on paper. Others are all over them and keep detailed notes from race to race.
Trainers , other than inferior ones, can see for themselves .
Love MAggie though. Known her since she was a baby and she's the greatest.
Hope that helps.

Thank you Ruffian :ThmbUp:

I find it amazing that some trainers would buy off of paper and not on flesh/combination of the 2. I dont doubt what you say just saying I would rather have the trainer who does both.

[Big Peps]

Thank you Ruffian :ThmbUp:

I find it amazing that some trainers would buy off of paper and not on flesh/combination of the 2. I dont doubt what you say just saying I would rather have the trainer who does both.

In my experience, a good claiming trainer does 4 things, watches the horse train in the morning, reviews the form, networks behind the scenes with people who may have had horse prior, etc, and watches horse prior to race. Trainers dialed into claiming know who to and who not to drop on, they also have a few in their mind that may be projects but think they can improve, i.e. Horses that you not have to win a shake on. They also have trainers they like to pick on...who they feel drop horses in class that shouldn't be

They certainly don't listen to Maggie, but agreed she does a great job

[Ruffian1]

Thank you Ruffian :ThmbUp:

I find it amazing that some trainers would buy off of paper and not on flesh/combination of the 2. I dont doubt what you say just saying I would rather have the trainer who does both.
I was a detailed notes guy. Used to learn some of them by looks and watch them train in the am beforehand if they were stabled there. I went overboard but that is how I was taught.
I would never have agreed with paper only but I watched King T Leather do it for decades and it was incredible as well as frustrating to witness his success.
He was unbelievable.

[tophatmert]

When you move up everything you claim ,you might as well claim them all. This is especially true when using someone else's money and are just interested in your cut of the purse.

[the little guy]

When you move up everything you claim ,you might as well claim them all. This is especially true when using someone else's money and are just interested in your cut of the purse.

...and here I thought EMD4ME's insane claims that the timing of Maggie's comments had some sinister element to it would end up being the most ridiculous assertion in this thread. I should have known better.

[tophatmert]

...and here I thought EMD4ME's insane claims that the timing of Maggie's comments had some sinister element to it would end up being the most ridiculous assertion in this thread. I should have known better.
You are correct there are no move up trainers.

[the little guy]

You are correct there are no move up trainers.


...and suddenly a new contender has emerged!

[tophatmert]

...and suddenly a new contender has emerged!
The industry really has never really addressed this issue because looking the other way has worked so well so I am not surprised at your responses. Claim them , move them up with whatever methods you need to win then drop them and let someone else deal with the horse you wore out in 2 starts. You can claim him back for less when the poor bastard who claimed from you can't get results.

[the little guy]

The industry really has never really addressed this issue because looking the other way has worked so well so I am not surprised at your responses. Claim them , move them up with whatever methods you need to win then drop them and let someone else deal with the horse you wore out in 2 starts. You can claim him back for less when the poor bastard who claimed from you can't get results.


Making incorrect assertions about very real issues only lessens the likelihood that anyone will take them seriously. Furthermore, suggesting that I am in any way part of the problem is also false, and just furthers the notion that you have little idea of what you are talking about.

[tophatmert]

...and suddenly a new contender has emerged!
By the way I think you are the best racing analyst going right now . Have felt that way for a long time.

[cj]

I've been saying this for a while now, but truly believe most "move up" trainers are just better than the other guys. I have no doubt there are some doing things that aren't kosher, but I think that is the small minority.

[tophatmert]

Making incorrect assertions about very real issues only lessens the likelihood that anyone will take them seriously. Furthermore, suggesting that I am in any way part of the problem is also false, and just furthers the notion that you have little idea of what you are talking about. Did not mean to suggest that you are part of the problem. The incorrect assertions ?

[tophatmert]

I've been saying this for a while now, but truly believe most "move up" trainers are just better than the other guys. I have no doubt there are some doing things that aren't kosher, but I think that is the small minority.
Agree that there are not that many but they do exist and thrive at times.

[EMD4ME]

...and here I thought EMD4ME's insane claims that the timing of Maggie's comments had some sinister element to it would end up being the most ridiculous assertion in this thread. I should have known better.


Wooooohh Wooooooohhhh Woooohhh. Hold your horses TLG. I never made any claim. I never even insinuated that their was some sinister element to the timing of her prattle.

I am a sincere guy. Everything I said, to the word, I meant with sincerity. I was handicapping tomorrow's card. Saw a maiden claimer that Maggie said would need one and should look out for next time out. Race #2, the 4 Chorus Line is the horse.

I had an innocent thought/question, that's all. Nothing more, nothing less.

You know me. If I think there was a stiff job in a race, I SAY IT POINT BLANK. If I think there is a group of jockey's that have had their moral compass compromised, I say it, point blank.

You're searching too deep here. If I had something to say, I would say it point blank.

Now, I understand, my prior perception of me (which unfortunately is unfounded) has maybe drawn you to feel this way.

I am a loyal NYRA guy. To be blunt, I can handle elsewhere and make a bit more. I don't.

Anyway, back to the main point. I was not being coy or using code language. Innocent question. No more, no less.

[the little guy]

Did not mean to suggest that you are part of the problem. The incorrect assertions ?

No trainer moves up anything close to every horse he ( or she ) takes over. Even the high percentage ones fail more often than not, and a lot of the ones that improve are the result of clever claims. I can't really speak of tracks outside of NYRA, but here I honestly don't find many sort of inexplicable and unusual move-ups, so to speak. As CJ suggests, a lot of it may be trainers who are just better. Frankly, a lot of the success seems to be people claiming horses and dropping or spotting horses better than prior trainers.

I am open to someone giving me counter examples of this, but I honestly think there is much less of this at NYRA than 25 or more years ago. I also know you weren't saying this was a NYRA issue, but given this was a thread about us, I inferred it....perhaps unfairly.

[the little guy]

Don't act so offended. You're way too big a boy for that.

If you weren't so paranoid that you constantly see conspiracies and cheating that doesn't exist, you would know that Maggie's paddock observations are ONLY a timing issue, both for her and the needs of the simulcast show in general. You wouldn't even question whether there was some preposterous and/or sinister ulterior motives.

That's OK, we are all used to your "boy who cried wolf" act. It doesn't give you a great deal of credibility, but I still like you. I know you're a good dude....you're just working the insanely paranoid horseplayer thing for all it's worth. I won't hold it against you....at least personally:-)

[SuperPickle]

No trainer moves up anything close to every horse he ( or she ) takes over. Even the high percentage ones fail more often than not, and a lot of the ones that improve are the result of clever claims. I can't really speak of tracks outside of NYRA, but here I honestly don't find many sort of inexplicable and unusual move-ups, so to speak. As CJ suggests, a lot of it may be trainers who are just better. Frankly, a lot of the success seems to be people claiming horses and dropping or spotting horses better than prior trainers.

I am open to someone giving me counter examples of this, but I honestly think there is much less of this at NYRA than 25 or more years ago. I also know you weren't saying this was a NYRA issue, but given this was a thread about us, I inferred it....perhaps unfairly.

The point that's often left out is the big claiming outfits generally are better at reading the condition book and being honest with what they claimed. Lots of people claim horses with no real plan. The big boys have a game plan. Conditions. Exit strategies. Etc.

You can right off guys like Rudy and Jacobson as drug users but here's one thing they do differently than most trainers. If they claim a horse for $40k and get him back to barn and realize he's a $25k claimer the horse runs back for $25k. Now that a hard conversation to have a owner. To tell them the investment they told them to spend $40k on 48 hours earlier was only worth $25k.

But these guys know that on a long enough timeline if they claim horses for $40k they'll get horses they can move up and make money with. The only thing that crushes them is huge loses. $40k horses running for $5k. So while other guys for a variety of reasons might slowly drop a horse they'll aggressively drop a horse because they know they'll have hits they just have to avoid huge misses.

[EMD4ME]

Don't act so offended. You're way too big a boy for that.

If you weren't so paranoid that you constantly see conspiracies and cheating that doesn't exist, you would know that Maggie's paddock observations are ONLY a timing issue, both for her and the needs of the simulcast show in general. You wouldn't even question whether there was some preposterous and/or sinister ulterior motives.

That's OK, we are all used to your "boy who cried wolf" act. It doesn't give you a great deal of credibility, but I still like you. I know you're a good dude....you're just working the insanely paranoid horseplayer thing for all it's worth. I won't hold it against you....at least personally:-)


For the record, I wasn't inferring or insinuating a thing.

Glad we're somewhat on the same page. :ThmbUp:

Keep up the good work and keep stretching you're new partner . She's getting better by having you around. :ThmbUp:

[Track Phantom]

No trainer moves up anything close to every horse he ( or she ) takes over. Even the high percentage ones fail more often than not, and a lot of the ones that improve are the result of clever claims. I can't really speak of tracks outside of NYRA, but here I honestly don't find many sort of inexplicable and unusual move-ups, so to speak. As CJ suggests, a lot of it may be trainers who are just better. Frankly, a lot of the success seems to be people claiming horses and dropping or spotting horses better than prior trainers.

I am open to someone giving me counter examples of this, but I honestly think there is much less of this at NYRA than 25 or more years ago. I also know you weren't saying this was a NYRA issue, but given this was a thread about us, I inferred it....perhaps unfairly.
I wish I had yours and CJ's optimism here but I don't quite see it this way. I am not close enough to NYRA racing to comment on that but at many other tracks there are trainers that do things that are very illogical and hard to take on face value by any clear thinking person.

A few years ago, a certain trainer won 16 races in row and there was an article about it (and him, and the owner) in DRF. I went back and looked at the horses he won with and it was astonishing how many horses jumped 30, 40 Beyer points after he took them over and normally only 2 to 3 weeks after the claim. (By the way, many of the claims were from higher percentage outfits).

Personally, I think the "their smarter than the other guys" argument is far too weak to use as a broad brush. Are there some cases of this, yes. But my belief is there are more likely explanations that don't require burying ones head in the sand.

We're all entitled to our opinions, and, again, I wish I could believe everything is on the "up and up". I'm extremely skeptical in many cases.

[cj]

I wish I had yours and CJ's optimism here but I don't quite see it this way. I am not close enough to NYRA racing to comment on that but at many other tracks there are trainers that do things that are very illogical and hard to take on face value by any clear thinking person.

A few years ago, a certain trainer won 16 races in row and there was an article about it (and him, and the owner) in DRF. I went back and looked at the horses he won with and it was astonishing how many horses jumped 30, 40 Beyer points after he took them over and normally only 2 to 3 weeks after the claim. (By the way, many of the claims were from higher percentage outfits).

Personally, I think the "their smarter than the other guys" argument is far too weak to use as a broad brush. Are there some cases of this, yes. But my belief is there are more likely explanations that don't require burying ones head in the sand.

We're all entitled to our opinions, and, again, I wish I could believe everything is on the "up and up". I'm extremely skeptical in many cases.

There are definitely some I'm skeptical about- just think they are not as prevelant as.some seem to think. Every move up isn't a juice job. I have no doubt some are. But a lot of these racinos are gypsy trainer central. I could probably move up some of the horses and I can't train a horse to drink (imbibe EMD4ME) water.

[EMD4ME]

There are definitely some I'm skeptical about- just think they are not as prevelant as.some seem to think. Every move up isn't a juice job. I have no doubt some are. But a lot of these racinos are gypsy trainer central. I could probably move up some of the horses and I can't train a horse to drink (imbibe EMD4ME) water.

IMBIBE again, I LOVE IT :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :)

[Track Phantom]

There are definitely some I'm skeptical about- just think they are not as prevelant as.some seem to think. Every move up isn't a juice job. I have no doubt some are. But a lot of these racinos are gypsy trainer central. I could probably move up some of the horses and I can't train a horse to drink (imbibe EMD4ME) water.
There is a trainer at my hometown track that won about 5% of his starts for as long as I've known him to be a trainer. Last year, he started winning at the end of the meet. This year, he's upwards of 30%+ percent. Horses are no different. Races he's running in are no different. Owners are no different. Riders are no different. Either he found the holy grail or he just learned how to train. Funny thing is, when he won with his first two starts of this meet, I predicted he'd win all meet (which he has). Based on his 5% success rate forever, I should not have been able to draw that conclusion (that he'd win all meet).

I think the argument that certain trainers are better, work harder, place horses better, and so on, probably applies in 10% of the cases, if that.

It can be frustrating if you are like me, and like to bet the horses and not the connections, but that toothpaste is never going back into the tube. I've learned to accept it, and even, at times, rely on it. But I will not go as far as to give sweeping praise to trainers that I feel are winning simply by taking an edge. I'll accept it, keep my mouth shut and move on. I won't shower them with adulation for being "smarter than their peers".

[EMD4ME]

There is a trainer at my hometown track that won about 5% of his starts for as long as I've known him to be a trainer. Last year, he started winning at the end of the meet. This year, he's upwards of 30%+ percent. Horses are no different. Races he's running in are no different. Owners are no different. Riders are no different. Either he found the holy grail or he just learned how to train. Funny thing is, when he won with his first two starts of this meet, I predicted he'd win all meet (which he has). Based on his 5% success rate forever, I should not have been able to draw that conclusion (that he'd win all meet).

I think the argument that certain trainers are better, work harder, place horses better, and so on, probably applies in 10% of the cases, if that.

It can be frustrating if you are like me, and like to bet the horses and not the connections, but that toothpaste is never going back into the tube. I've learned to accept it, and even, at times, rely on it. But I will not go as far as to give sweeping praise to trainers that I feel are winning simply by taking an edge. I'll accept it, keep my mouth shut and move on. I won't shower them with adulation for being "smarter than their peers".

Nice post as usual Track Phantom. Are you referring to Retama Park?

[cj]

There is a trainer at my hometown track that won about 5% of his starts for as long as I've known him to be a trainer. Last year, he started winning at the end of the meet. This year, he's upwards of 30%+ percent. Horses are no different. Races he's running in are no different. Owners are no different. Riders are no different. Either he found the holy grail or he just learned how to train. Funny thing is, when he won with his first two starts of this meet, I predicted he'd win all meet (which he has). Based on his 5% success rate forever, I should not have been able to draw that conclusion (that he'd win all meet).

I think the argument that certain trainers are better, work harder, place horses better, and so on, probably applies in 10% of the cases, if that.

It can be frustrating if you are like me, and like to bet the horses and not the connections, but that toothpaste is never going back into the tube. I've learned to accept it, and even, at times, rely on it. But I will not go as far as to give sweeping praise to trainers that I feel are winning simply by taking an edge. I'll accept it, keep my mouth shut and move on. I won't shower them with adulation for being "smarter than their peers".

Where did I ever shower any of these guys with adulation? I have specific trainers I'd bet the ranch are cheating. But I've also seem some mentioned here as move up guys that I'm 99% sure aren't.

[Track Phantom]

Where did I ever shower any of these guys with adulation? I have specific trainers I'd bet the ranch are cheating. But I've also seem some mentioned here as move up guys that I'm 99% sure aren't.
I'm not really singling you or anyone out. Just making a general comment. I know you don't believe everything wholeheartedly. I think we just differ on the frequency that certain things happen.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I just have to point out that the claiming boxes at most tracks close something like 15 minutes prior to a race, so if Maggie or any other analyst comes on at 12 min to post, it should be too late to drop a claim slip on the horse, based on what she says on TV.

[thespaah]

Congrats to her husband Thomas Morely in earning a Grade 1 win in the Ballerina!

[EMD4ME]

Congrats to her husband Thomas Morely in earning a Grade 1 win in the Ballerina!


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: