How do i explain...

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

How do I explain to a 'newbie' the importance of avoiding closers in races on the dirt.That the majority of the winners are early and pressers and early/pressers?

The ideal spot in a race is to stalk and not lag behind the field in order to get first strike at the fading speed horse and to avoid traffic problems that the typical closer has to over come in an ordinary race. Aside from the lone speed advantage horse the stalkers are the most dangerous especially in the last few furlongs of the race.

Is there a simple formula that would identify these potential stalkers that a newbie can research and learn to identify?

[Overlay]

Introduce the newbie to speed points (whether calculated by William Quirin's formula or Dave Schwartz's more recent revision), and show the newbie the steadily decreasing flow of impact values (and $NET figures if available) from horses with higher speed-point totals down to horses with none (particularly on dirt), as well as Quirin's finding that requiring horses to have at least one speed point (meaning that there was at least one recent race where the horse was running in the front half of the field in the early stages) in order to be considered for play was one of three factors that universally improved the profitability of systems.

[GatetoWire]

How do I explain to a 'newbie' the importance of avoiding closers in races on the dirt.That the majority of the winners are early and pressers and early/pressers?

The ideal spot in a race is to stalk and not lag behind the field in order to get first strike at the fading speed horse and to avoid traffic problems that the typical closer has to over come in an ordinary race. Aside from the lone speed advantage horse the stalkers are the most dangerous especially in the last few furlongs of the race.

Is there a simple formula that would identify these potential stalkers that a newbie can research and learn to identify?

Show them the stats.
For example Dirt Sprints at Gulfstream last 4 years

Wire - 43% winners
Stalk - 43% winners
Rally - 14% winners

I would recommend they read Randy Giles book Extreme Pace Handicapping. That would give the newbie the basics of Speed Points, Race Shapes and how to identify each type of runner.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Two good points gentlemen. No fluff no nonsense stats to show the disadvantages of the closing horse in a dirt race.

[GatetoWire]

Two good points gentlemen. No fluff no nonsense stats to show the disadvantages of the closing horse in a dirt race.

I update my post. Get your friend to read the Randy Giles book Extreme Pace Handicapping too.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Show them the stats.
For example Dirt Sprints at Gulfstream last 4 years

Wire - 43% winners
Stalk - 43% winners
Rally - 14% winners

I would recommend they read Randy Giles book Extreme Pace Handicapping. That would give the newbie the basics of Speed Points, Race Shapes and how to identify each type of runner.

Do you have the Gulfstream stats for dirt route races during the same period because I would think the advantage holds true at the routes also, though maybe not as great in terms of percentages.

[GatetoWire]

Do you have the Gulfstream stats for dirt route races during the same period because I would think the advantage holds true at the routes also, though maybe not as great in terms of percentages.

We all know Gulfstream favors speed so no real secret in the numbers!!!

Gulfstream Routes last 4 years

Wire - 37%
Stalk - 49%
Rally - 14%

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

We all know Gulfstream favors speed so no real secret in the numbers!!!

Gulfstream Routes last 4 years

Wire - 37%
Stalk - 49%
Rally - 14%


Still 86% for the top two categories...significant.

[AndyC]

If the closers were paying more than their probability of winning would it still be a problem?

[Overlay]

If the closers were paying more than their probability of winning would it still be a problem?
That's why running style or early speed should not be the sole factor upon which betting decisions are based, but one of a variety of elements covering the various major handicapping areas (such as class, condition, speed, pace, and (especially, for me -- and as you noted) betting value) that should be evaluated and given their proper weight in the overall picture.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

If the closers were paying more than their probability of winning would it still be a problem?

Value is paramount and obviously there are closers that are good bets, on occasion when the pace analysis of the race shows and edge and value is present. The key is to pay attention to the percentages.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

That's why running style or early speed should not be the sole factor upon which betting decisions are based, but one of a variety of elements covering the various major handicapping areas (such as class, condition, speed, pace, and (especially, for me -- and as you noted) betting value) that should be evaluated and given their proper weight in the overall picture.

Overlay,

As always a well thought out response that simply makes sense.

[Robert Goren]

Let him bet a few, he will learn pretty quickly.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Let him bet a few, he will learn pretty quickly.

LOL. How true. I am really trying to set the table and since this man is very analytical show him some raw stats and along with Giles book etc so he can begin with a few basics to know how to get an edge, however slight when he begins wagering with real money.

[Tom]

If the closers were paying more than their probability of winning would it still be a problem?

Depends - do you play every day or weekends? If only go to the tack on weekends, you have to go for W%

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Watched a number of races today ( without betting) with my buddy, the newbie, and thought it was a good idea to have him watch the races and visually see the early/pressers closers etc during a race. Initially he was quiet and was soaking up the events like a sponge. After about 5 or so races he saw how the stalkers were , for the most part , in a perfect position to finish with good energy and be on the wire.

I explained how a host of other factors are in play for a total handicapping approach including the difference with turf racing and the emphasis on the closing run and the faster late fractions. All and all a good day...time well spent.